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Perspective 2023: Hydrogen outlook</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2024-01-10T00:00:00Z">January 10, 2024</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-7 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-10"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Despite some uncertainties across scenarios, global clean hydrogen demand is projected to grow significantly to 2050, but infrastructure scale-up and technology advancements are needed to meet projected demand.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>About the authors</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>This article is a collaborative effort by Chiara Gulli, <a href="/our-people/bernd-heid">Bernd Heid</a>, <a href="/our-people/jesse-noffsinger">Jesse Noffsinger</a>, Maurits Waardenburg, and <a href="/our-people/markus-wilthaner">Markus Wilthaner</a>, representing views from McKinsey Energy Solutions.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>The Global Energy Perspective 2023</strong> models the outlook for demand and supply of energy commodities across a 1.5°C pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, and four bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These energy transition scenarios examine outcomes ranging from warming of 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2100 (scenario descriptions outlined below in sidebar “About the Global Energy Perspective 2023”). These wide-ranging scenarios sketch a range of outcomes based on varying underlying assumptions—for example, about the pace of technological progress and the level of policy enforcement. The scenarios are shaped by more than 400 drivers across sectors, technologies, policies, costs, and fuels, and serve as a fact base to inform decision makers on the challenges to be overcome to enable the energy transition. In this article, we explore how hydrogen could contribute to decarbonizing the energy system, uncertainties around hydrogen’s future role, and what it would take to set up a global hydrogen economy by 2050.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-edge-to-edge StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__TLkZC mck-c-module-wrapper"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Clean hydrogen demand is projected to increase to between 125 and 585 Mtpa by 2050</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>Hydrogen demand today is largely supplied by fossil fuel-based steam methane reforming and driven by fertilizer production and refining. These industries are expected to lead the uptake of blue and green hydrogen until 2030 in the slower scenarios, as they switch their hydrogen-based operations to clean hydrogen. In parallel, “new” emerging applications—for instance in steel, in the production of synthetic fuels, and in heavy road transport—may begin to emerge in the faster scenarios.</p> <p>Nearly all hydrogen consumed today is grey hydrogen (approximately 90 million tons<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="982fc5b3-7b78-41f8-8790-1fe6e8824920"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="982fc5b3-7b78-41f8-8790-1fe6e8824920" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Metric tons: 1 metric ton = 2,205 pounds.</span></span></span></a></span> per annum [Mtpa]). However, demand for grey hydrogen is projected to decline as demand for clean hydrogen rises and costs of the green molecules eventually become more competitive.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="fdb44cc9-db99-45fa-bf33-93695e9d9662"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="fdb44cc9-db99-45fa-bf33-93695e9d9662" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Clean hydrogen includes both green hydrogen (hydrogen produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable energy as a power source) and blue hydrogen (hydrogen produced through steam reforming of natural gas or methane with carbon capture, utilization, and storage [CCUS]), and contrasts with grey hydrogen (hydrogen produced through the same process as blue hydrogen but without CCUS).</span></span></span></a></span> By 2050, clean hydrogen demand could account for up to 73 to 100 percent (125 to 585 Mtpa) of total hydrogen demand, with only between less than 1 and 50 Mtpa of demand being met by grey hydrogen, depending on the scenario.</p> <p>After 2025, nearly all new hydrogen production coming online is expected to be clean hydrogen. This coincides with the start of the expected phaseout of grey hydrogen, driven by the growing cost competitiveness of clean hydrogen and commitments to decarbonize. Until 2030, clean hydrogen uptake is projected to be driven by existing applications switching from grey to blue and green hydrogen, but between 2030 and 2040 the uptake of hydrogen in new applications without existing demand is expected to drive the increase in clean hydrogen demand.</p> <p>After 2040, private and public sector commitments are projected to drive the uptake of clean hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels in emerging applications in the Further Acceleration and Achieved Commitments scenarios. Potential mechanisms that would be required to support demand growth of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives in these applications include the implementation of, or increase in, CO<sub>2</sub> pricing, quotas on sustainable fuels in aviation, or CO<sub>2</sub>-reduction targets in maritime transportation. On the other hand, in the Current Trajectory and Fading Momentum scenarios, hydrogen uptake is projected to be driven by a continuation of the current cost decline and the underlying growth in some of the fertilizer and chemicals markets that use hydrogen today, with limited new policy support.</p> <p>Some geographies, such as the European Union and United Kingdom, are expected to fully phase out grey hydrogen by 2050 in all scenarios except Fading Momentum. Grey hydrogen will likely play a larger role in the Fading Momentum scenario than in the faster energy transition scenarios, due to slower uptake of clean hydrogen in new sectors. In these sectors, uptake of clean hydrogen is projected to be limited until 2050.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex1-v7.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Across scenarios, clean hydrogen demand is expected to reach 125-585 million tons per year by 2050." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex1-v7.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Industry is projected to drive the majority of clean hydrogen uptake until 2030, followed by a wider uptake in new applications by 2050</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>Applications with existing demand will likely account for the majority of clean hydrogen demand throughout the 2020s, potentially driving the increase in clean hydrogen’s share of total hydrogen demand from less than 1 percent today to around 30 percent by 2030 in the Further Acceleration scenario.</p> <p>By 2040, clean hydrogen could play a larger role in new applications—especially in mobility, which is expected to be the largest “newcomer” for clean hydrogen demand by 2040 in the Further Acceleration scenario. Applications could range from fuel cell electric vehicles in long-haul, heavy-duty trucking to synthetic kerosene in aviation. The second largest newcomer is expected to be hydrogen used in (mainly industrial) heating, displacing natural gas. Combined, clean hydrogen uptake in existing applications and emerging applications could drive clean hydrogen’s share of total demand to 75 percent by 2040.</p> <p>By 2050, in the Further Acceleration scenario, mobility applications are projected to remain the largest drivers for clean hydrogen uptake, with road transport accounting for around 80 Mtpa and aviation around 50 Mtpa, with the remaining 15 Mtpa coming from maritime. Existing industrial applications and heating are projected to drive further clean hydrogen uptake, potentially resulting in clean hydrogen accounting for 95 percent of total hydrogen demand in 2050.</p> <p>However, uncertainties around demand growth remain. For example, power could drive an additional demand upside of between 60 and 70 Mtpa by 2050, on top of the projected demand in the Further Acceleration scenario. This could happen if hydrogen-fueled turbines or stationary fuel cells prove more competitive or have more public support than alternative technologies for the last-mile decarbonization of the energy system, such as long-duration energy storage technologies and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).</p> <p>In the Fading Momentum scenario, the already existing end use of hydrogen in fertilizer production is expected to drive consumption far beyond 2030 corresponding with the lower total growth.</p> <p>The only sector that is not projected to see an increase in total hydrogen demand in 2050 compared to today is refining, with demand expected to peak in the late 2020s or early 2030s, depending on the scenario, driven by lower oil demand across scenarios.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex2-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Industry is expected to be the biggest driver of clean hydrogen demand until 2030; mobility could overtake industry by 2050." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex2-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Uptake in new applications depends on operating environment, infrastructure development, and relative competitiveness</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>Going forward, the decarbonization agendas of governments and companies are expected to drive hydrogen uptake in new applications, as well as the decarbonization of existing grey hydrogen applications. However, in most regions, there is significant uncertainty around projected hydrogen uptake in these new applications across scenarios.</p> <p>The uncertainty surrounding hydrogen demand in emerging applications stems from a combination of factors, including lack of clarity in government support, the development of enabling infrastructure, and evolving competitive dynamics with other decarbonization technologies. For example, hydrogen’s role in decarbonizing aviation could depend on government support, as well as market dynamics and competition. First, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) quotas are needed across geographies to drive a switch from fossil fuel-based kerosene to clean alternatives. Second, hydrogen-based synthetic fuels would have to prove competitive with the main SAF alternatives, for instance biokerosene, either based on costs or constraints in the availability of feedstock necessary to produce biokerosene.</p> <p>Similarly, there is uncertainty about the switch from grey to clean hydrogen. Active mandates, such as CO<sub>2</sub> prices and subsidies, will likely be needed to facilitate the decarbonization of existing hydrogen demand, as the switch will likely not be attractive based on economics alone.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex3-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="There is a large range of uncertainty in the projected uptake of hydrogen in emerging sectors." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex3-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Infrastructure scale-up and technology advancements could be critical</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>In key sectors, the timely deployment of infrastructure across the whole supply chain is projected to be needed to meet clean hydrogen demand.</p> <p>Several key enablers—mostly physical infrastructure—would have to be rolled out by 2050 to facilitate the future hydrogen economy. In the Achieved Commitments scenario, over 163,000 refueling stations for trucks would be needed globally, alongside a network of more than 40,000 kilometers of hydrogen pipelines in Europe alone.</p> <p>Technological advancements may also be needed to ensure the uptake of hydrogen in sectors where hydrogen technology is not yet mature, such as the further development of fuel cells for heavy-duty vehicles and marine vessels.</p> <p>Coordination between government and the private sector may be needed to ensure the required infrastructure is in place to meet hydrogen demand at the pace necessary to meet decarbonization commitments and with an attractive business case.</p> <p>The extent of the growth and advancement necessary to establish a hydrogen economy is not without precedent—historical adoption of natural gas in the European Union since the 1960s and 70s shows that it is possible to rapidly change an established energy system if the necessary competitiveness and support are in place.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex4-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The future hydrogen economy will likely require infrastructure scale up and tach advancements to meet demand." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex4-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Asia is projected to remain the region with the largest hydrogen demand to 2050</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>Despite uncertainties in regional and sectoral demand, Asia is projected to remain the biggest hydrogen consumer across scenarios, largely driven by the demand from chemicals that already exist today, and, to a lesser extent, the transport, iron, and steel sectors in China and India. In Japan and South Korea, a significant share of hydrogen demand is expected to come from electricity generation as ammonia and hydrogen are blended in existing coal and gas plants, respectively. As Asia will likely not produce enough hydrogen to meet its growing demand, the region might rely on imports from Oceania or the Middle East, for instance.</p> <p>In Europe and the United States, the chemicals sector is projected to remain a significant driver of hydrogen demand, but new applications in sectors including steel and production of synthetic fuels for aviation, maritime, and heavy road transport are also expected to contribute significantly to demand growth.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex5-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="By region, APAC is projected to have the largest hydrogen demand in 2050, driven by demand in the chemicals sector from China and India." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex5-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Green hydrogen production is projected to be spread across regions, while blue hydrogen production is geography-specific</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>By 2050, green hydrogen is expected to dominate the global supply mix, with a share of between 50 and 65 percent across scenarios, as cost reductions in renewables and electrolyzers make this production route more cost competitive. Blue hydrogen is projected to account for the next largest share of supply, at between 20 and 35 percent.</p> <p>The ratio of blue to green hydrogen production is expected to differ significantly by region, driven mainly by cost factor developments. Blue hydrogen production is projected to be concentrated in regions with cost-competitive natural gas and CCUS, such as the Middle East and North America. By 2050, blue hydrogen production could require as much as around 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas (between 10 and 15 percent of global natural gas demand in the Further Acceleration scenario), and capacity to capture and store 750 to 1,000 megatons of CO<sub>2</sub>.</p> <p>Green hydrogen production is projected to have a higher share in regions with abundant and cost-competitive renewable resources, such as Australia and Iberia. The production of green hydrogen could potentially be constrained by a lack of renewable power. Globally, approximately a quarter of renewable electricity generation (around 14,000 terawatt-hours) could be required to produce the green hydrogen needed by 2050 in the Further Acceleration scenario. Further potential bottlenecks to be tackled to achieve strong green hydrogen uptake include large-scale investments and deployment of at-scale manufacturing of electrolyzers, with cost competitiveness being strongly dependent on the latter.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex6-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Green hydrogen supply uptake is expected to be similar across all regions, while blue production will be specific to certain geographies." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex6-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>Clean hydrogen cost competitiveness is projected to vary between regions</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>Clean hydrogen production costs are expected to drop significantly by 2030–50, with large differences across regions under the scenarios explored. Cost differentials among regions could drive an increased mismatch between supply and demand centers and thus lead to the development of major hydrogen and hydrogen-derivatives export hubs.</p> <p>Regions with cost-competitive natural gas resources and CCUS, such as the Middle East, Norway, and the United States, are expected to have the highest cost competitiveness and could potentially account for 30 percent of exports at production costs of below $1.5/kg by 2050.</p> <p>Regions with access to low-cost renewable power, such as Australia or North Africa, could make up an additional 60 percent of exports at production costs of between $1.5/kg and $2/kg.</p> <p>The growing hydrogen trade could enable uptake in countries that have strong decarbonization ambitions but lack the necessary energy resources for clean hydrogen production, such as parts of Europe, as well as Japan and South Korea.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex7-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="By 2050, regions with production costs under $1.8/kg could export large volumes of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex7-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__item__YhXnX"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-item__fg74z"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-md StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-text__DEQ4O StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-4"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div>A global hydrogen trade could emerge to connect demand centers with resource-rich export hubs</div></h2><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline"><div><p>Major hydrogen trade flows are expected to evolve to connect export hubs with favorable renewable power or natural gas resources to two main demand regions: Asia and Europe.</p> <p>Europe could meet most of its demand from within the region, importing from countries with low gas prices or abundant hydro and solar power, such as Iberia and the Nordics. The remainder could be sourced from the Middle East, North Africa, and North America. Asia could source hydrogen from countries and regions like Australia, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America.</p> <p>Regions with favorable routes to market—either by producing and shipping as derivatives or building a strategic network of hydrogen pipelines toward off-takers, potentially re-using existing natural gas infrastructure—may also emerge as production hubs.</p> <p>While major trade flows in Europe will likely depend heavily on pipelines, shipping could prove critical to enable overseas trade. Hydrogen shipping could be expedited by converting hydrogen to synfuels (such as ammonia or methanol) at export hubs. Liquid hydrogen shipment could be one way to enable the global hydrogen trade after 2030, potentially increasing to approximately 20 Mtpa traded in 2050 in the faster scenarios.</p> <p>Although this projected ramp-up of the global hydrogen trade is ambitious, it does have historical precedent—similar growth was observed in the first 25 years of LNG development.</p></div></div></div><div class="StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__content-media__o8N4Z StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky__EK8hB StoryContainer_mck-c-story-container__container-sticky--extra-spacing__uDmVE mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-8"><div class=""><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex8-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="By 2050, extensive and deep trade links could connect the globe." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/hydrogen%20outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex8-v6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div></div> <hr/> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_2734c4f" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>About the Global Energy Perspective 2023</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> </span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/exhibit-1-scenarios-v11-all-scenarios.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2023 explores five scenarios." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202023/exhibit-1-scenarios-v11-all-scenarios.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that has the potential to play a significant role in decarbonizing the energy system. Hydrogen-based technologies and fuels can provide low-carbon alternatives across sectors. However, as of now, there is still a wide range of possible hydrogen pathways up to 2050 both in terms of hydrogen demand and supply, leading to uncertainty for organizations looking to enter the hydrogen market or to scale their operations.</p> <p>Government and private sector support is projected to heavily affect hydrogen uptake. At the same time, future technological developments of alternatives (for instance, high-temperature electric furnaces, long-duration energy storage, and availability of biobased feedstock) could also create competition in some of the new applications for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. Hydrogen companies may benefit from closely monitoring signposts on policies, the development of hydrogen-enabling infrastructure, and the cost-competitiveness of hydrogen-based technologies compared to other low-carbon alternatives as they chart their way forward.</p>  <p><em>To request access to the data and analytics related to our Hydrogen outlook, or to speak to our team, please <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients/energy-solutions/request-energy-market-modeling-and-data?cid=global-energy-perspective-2023-hydrogen-outlook">contact us</a>.</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Chiara Gulli</strong> is a solution manager in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office; <strong><a href="/our-people/bernd-heid">Bernd Heid</a></strong> is a senior partner in the New York office, where Maurits Waardenburg is a partner; <strong><a href="/our-people/jesse-noffsinger">Jesse Noffsinger</a></strong> is a partner in the Seattle office; and <strong>Maurits Waardenburg</strong> is a partner in the Brussels office.</p> <p>The authors wish to thank Cristina Blajin, Alison Hightman, Albertine Potter van Loon, and Ole Rolser for their contributions to this article.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_2734c4f" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Global Energy Perspective 2023 Hydrogen outlook","displayName":"Global Energy Perspective 2023 Hydrogen outlook","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"943728ba-236b-4d2a-85ff-dff49e7c37f7","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Global Energy Perspective 2023: Hydrogen outlook"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Despite some uncertainties across scenarios, global clean hydrogen demand is projected to grow significantly to 2050, but infrastructure scale-up and technology advancements are needed to meet projected demand."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-01-10T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[audio 1]]\n[[sidebar authors]]\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe Global Energy Perspective 2023\u003c/strong\u003e models the outlook for demand and supply of energy commodities across a 1.5\u0026deg;C pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, and four bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These energy transition scenarios examine outcomes ranging from warming of 1.6\u0026deg;C to 2.9\u0026deg;C by 2100 (scenario descriptions outlined below in sidebar \u0026ldquo;About the Global Energy Perspective 2023\u0026rdquo;). These wide-ranging scenarios sketch a range of outcomes based on varying underlying assumptions\u0026mdash;for example, about the pace of technological progress and the level of policy enforcement. The scenarios are shaped by more than 400 drivers across sectors, technologies, policies, costs, and fuels, and serve as a fact base to inform decision makers on the challenges to be overcome to enable the energy transition. In this article, we explore how hydrogen could contribute to decarbonizing the energy system, uncertainties around hydrogen\u0026rsquo;s future role, and what it would take to set up a global hydrogen economy by 2050.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[story 1]]\n\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\n[[sidebar 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eHydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that has the potential to play a significant role in decarbonizing the energy system. Hydrogen-based technologies and fuels can provide low-carbon alternatives across sectors. However, as of now, there is still a wide range of possible hydrogen pathways up to 2050 both in terms of hydrogen demand and supply, leading to uncertainty for organizations looking to enter the hydrogen market or to scale their operations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eGovernment and private sector support is projected to heavily affect hydrogen uptake. At the same time, future technological developments of alternatives (for instance, high-temperature electric furnaces, long-duration energy storage, and availability of biobased feedstock) could also create competition in some of the new applications for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. Hydrogen companies may benefit from closely monitoring signposts on policies, the development of hydrogen-enabling infrastructure, and the cost-competitiveness of hydrogen-based technologies compared to other low-carbon alternatives as they chart their way forward.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[ceros 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eTo request access to the data and analytics related to our Hydrogen outlook, or to speak to our team, please \u003ca href=\"https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients/energy-solutions/request-energy-market-modeling-and-data?cid=global-energy-perspective-2023-hydrogen-outlook\"\u003econtact us\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":true},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2024-01-10T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Oil \u0026 Gas"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eChiara Gulli\u003c/strong\u003e is a solution manager in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Amsterdam office; \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/bernd-heid\"\u003eBernd Heid\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in the New York office, where Maurits Waardenburg is a partner;\u0026nbsp;\u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/jesse-noffsinger\"\u003eJesse Noffsinger\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in the Seattle office; and \u003cstrong\u003eMaurits Waardenburg\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in the Brussels office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors wish to thank Cristina Blajin, Alison Hightman, Albertine Potter van Loon, and Ole Rolser for their contributions to this article.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"DC7BB48F37384E9992A2895FE5591828","name":"Chiara Gulli","authorTitle":{"value":"Chiara Gulli"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"DFF4FF5934FB432982409D1D092B6DCC","name":"Bernd Heid","authorTitle":{"value":"Bernd Heid"},"description":{"value":"Serves automotive OEMs, electronics suppliers, and semiconductor manufacturers in the areas of product development, R\u0026D processes, procurement reorganization, strategic alliances, and growth, as well as portfolio strategies."},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/bernd heid/bernd_heid_fc_mask_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":""},"emailLinks":{"value":"Bernd_Heid@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/bernd-heid-886502/"},"description":{"value":"Leads the McKinsey Platform for Climate Technologies and work in hydrogen globally; serves clients in the mobility and energy sectors on future of mobility and hydrogen solutions"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"New York","displayName":"New York"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Senior Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/bernd heid/bernd_heid_fc-mask_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/bernd-heid"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"80E8DC27AD3B4DFCBB660AB734D2988F","name":"Jesse Noffsinger","authorTitle":{"value":"Jesse 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topics"}}}]},"articlesidebar":{"results":[{"mediaID":{"value":"1"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"[[exhibit side]]"}},"aboutTheAuthors":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":"About the Global Energy Perspective 2023"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"showShareTools":{"boolValue":true},"backgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"gradientDirection":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Bottom Right"},"value":{"value":"bottom-right"}}},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Collapsible"},"value":{"value":"default"}}},"isAboutAuthor":{"boolValue":false},"background":{"targetItem":null},"image":{"src":null,"alt":""}},{"mediaID":{"value":"authors"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eThis article is a collaborative effort by Chiara Gulli, \u003ca href=\"/our-people/bernd-heid\"\u003eBernd Heid\u003c/a\u003e, \u003ca href=\"/our-people/jesse-noffsinger\"\u003eJesse Noffsinger\u003c/a\u003e, Maurits Waardenburg, and \u003ca href=\"/our-people/markus-wilthaner\"\u003eMarkus Wilthaner\u003c/a\u003e, representing views from McKinsey Energy Solutions.\u003c/p\u003e"}},"aboutTheAuthors":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":"About the authors"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"showShareTools":{"boolValue":false},"backgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"gradientDirection":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Bottom Right"},"value":{"value":"bottom-right"}}},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Collapsible"},"value":{"value":"default"}}},"isAboutAuthor":{"boolValue":false},"background":{"targetItem":null},"image":{"src":null,"alt":""}}]},"boxout":{"results":[]},"globalsidebar":{"results":[]},"video":{"results":[]},"scrollycontainer":{"results":[]},"bespokeinteractive":{"results":[]},"storycontainer":{"results":[{"id":"C68CB53E2DFC42A29C454416704DEA55","mediaID":{"value":"1"},"collapseTopSpace":{"boolValue":false},"collapseBottomSpace":{"boolValue":false},"desktopTextColumnWidth":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"33"},"value":{"value":"33"}}},"children":{"results":[{"id":"80A9A70A18484C33AA630EB4BFC877BB","name":"Exhibit for Story 1","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Clean hydrogen demand is projected to increase to between 125 and 585 Mtpa by 2050"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eHydrogen demand today is largely supplied by fossil fuel-based steam methane reforming and driven by fertilizer production and refining. These industries are expected to lead the uptake of blue and green hydrogen until 2030 in the slower scenarios, as they switch their hydrogen-based operations to clean hydrogen. In parallel, \u0026ldquo;new\u0026rdquo; emerging applications\u0026mdash;for instance in steel, in the production of synthetic fuels, and in heavy road transport\u0026mdash;may begin to emerge in the faster scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNearly all hydrogen consumed today is grey hydrogen (approximately 90 million tons[[footnote 1]] per annum [Mtpa]). However, demand for grey hydrogen is projected to decline as demand for clean hydrogen rises and costs of the green molecules eventually become more competitive.[[footnote 2]] By 2050, clean hydrogen demand could account for up to 73 to 100 percent (125 to 585 Mtpa) of total hydrogen demand, with only between less than 1 and 50 Mtpa of demand being met by grey hydrogen, depending on the scenario.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter 2025, nearly all new hydrogen production coming online is expected to be clean hydrogen. This coincides with the start of the expected phaseout of grey hydrogen, driven by the growing cost competitiveness of clean hydrogen and commitments to decarbonize. Until 2030, clean hydrogen uptake is projected to be driven by existing applications switching from grey to blue and green hydrogen, but between 2030 and 2040 the uptake of hydrogen in new applications without existing demand is expected to drive the increase in clean hydrogen demand.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter 2040, private and public sector commitments are projected to drive the uptake of clean hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels in emerging applications in the Further Acceleration and Achieved Commitments scenarios. Potential mechanisms that would be required to support demand growth of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives in these applications include the implementation of, or increase in, CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e pricing, quotas on sustainable fuels in aviation, or CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-reduction targets in maritime transportation. On the other hand, in the Current Trajectory and Fading Momentum scenarios, hydrogen uptake is projected to be driven by a continuation of the current cost decline and the underlying growth in some of the fertilizer and chemicals markets that use hydrogen today, with limited new policy support.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSome geographies, such as the European Union and United Kingdom, are expected to fully phase out grey hydrogen by 2050 in all scenarios except Fading Momentum. Grey hydrogen will likely play a larger role in the Fading Momentum scenario than in the faster energy transition scenarios, due to slower uptake of clean hydrogen in new sectors. In these sectors, uptake of clean hydrogen is projected to be limited until 2050.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex1-v7.svgz","alt":"Across scenarios, clean hydrogen demand is expected to reach 125-585 million tons per year by 2050.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMetric tons: 1 metric ton = 2,205 pounds.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eClean hydrogen includes both green hydrogen (hydrogen produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable energy as a power source) and blue hydrogen (hydrogen produced through steam reforming of natural gas or methane with carbon capture, utilization, and storage [CCUS]), and contrasts with grey hydrogen (hydrogen produced through the same process as blue hydrogen but without CCUS).\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"CFC4A72EFF5642A1A39687B06110D04A","name":"Exhibit for Story 2","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Industry is projected to drive the majority of clean hydrogen uptake until 2030, followed by a wider uptake in new applications by 2050"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eApplications with existing demand will likely account for the majority of clean hydrogen demand throughout the 2020s, potentially driving the increase in clean hydrogen\u0026rsquo;s share of total hydrogen demand from less than 1 percent today to around 30 percent by 2030 in the Further Acceleration scenario.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy 2040, clean hydrogen could play a larger role in new applications\u0026mdash;especially in mobility, which is expected to be the largest \u0026ldquo;newcomer\u0026rdquo; for clean hydrogen demand by 2040 in the Further Acceleration scenario. Applications could range from fuel cell electric vehicles in long-haul, heavy-duty trucking to synthetic kerosene in aviation. The second largest newcomer is expected to be hydrogen used in (mainly industrial) heating, displacing natural gas. Combined, clean hydrogen uptake in existing applications and emerging applications could drive clean hydrogen\u0026rsquo;s share of total demand to 75 percent by 2040.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy 2050, in the Further Acceleration scenario, mobility applications are projected to remain the largest drivers for clean hydrogen uptake, with road transport accounting for around 80 Mtpa and aviation around 50 Mtpa, with the remaining 15 Mtpa coming from maritime. Existing industrial applications and heating are projected to drive further clean hydrogen uptake, potentially resulting in clean hydrogen accounting for 95 percent of total hydrogen demand in 2050.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, uncertainties around demand growth remain. For example, power could drive an additional demand upside of between 60 and 70 Mtpa by 2050, on top of the projected demand in the Further Acceleration scenario. This could happen if hydrogen-fueled turbines or stationary fuel cells prove more competitive or have more public support than alternative technologies for the last-mile decarbonization of the energy system, such as long-duration energy storage technologies and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the Fading Momentum scenario, the already existing end use of hydrogen in fertilizer production is expected to drive consumption far beyond 2030 corresponding with the lower total growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe only sector that is not projected to see an increase in total hydrogen demand in 2050 compared to today is refining, with demand expected to peak in the late 2020s or early 2030s, depending on the scenario, driven by lower oil demand across scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex2-v6.svgz","alt":"Industry is expected to be the biggest driver of clean hydrogen demand until 2030; mobility could overtake industry by 2050.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"761A7D9D505B4428885DAA44E9F1481E","name":"Exhibit for Story 3","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Uptake in new applications depends on operating environment, infrastructure development, and relative competitiveness"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eGoing forward, the decarbonization agendas of governments and companies are expected to drive hydrogen uptake in new applications, as well as the decarbonization of existing grey hydrogen applications. However, in most regions, there is significant uncertainty around projected hydrogen uptake in these new applications across scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe uncertainty surrounding hydrogen demand in emerging applications stems from a combination of factors, including lack of clarity in government support, the development of enabling infrastructure, and evolving competitive dynamics with other decarbonization technologies. For example, hydrogen\u0026rsquo;s role in decarbonizing aviation could depend on government support, as well as market dynamics and competition. First, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) quotas are needed across geographies to drive a switch from fossil fuel-based kerosene to clean alternatives. Second, hydrogen-based synthetic fuels would have to prove competitive with the main SAF alternatives, for instance biokerosene, either based on costs or constraints in the availability of feedstock necessary to produce biokerosene.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSimilarly, there is uncertainty about the switch from grey to clean hydrogen. Active mandates, such as CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e prices and subsidies, will likely be needed to facilitate the decarbonization of existing hydrogen demand, as the switch will likely not be attractive based on economics alone.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex3-v6.svgz","alt":"There is a large range of uncertainty in the projected uptake of hydrogen in emerging sectors.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"8500581A7B664B6CAF58923564616101","name":"Exhibit for Story 4","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Infrastructure scale-up and technology advancements could be critical"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eIn key sectors, the timely deployment of infrastructure across the whole supply chain is projected to be needed to meet clean hydrogen demand.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSeveral key enablers\u0026mdash;mostly physical infrastructure\u0026mdash;would have to be rolled out by 2050 to facilitate the future hydrogen economy. In the Achieved Commitments scenario, over 163,000 refueling stations for trucks would be needed globally, alongside a network of more than 40,000 kilometers of hydrogen pipelines in Europe alone.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTechnological advancements may also be needed to ensure the uptake of hydrogen in sectors where hydrogen technology is not yet mature, such as the further development of fuel cells for heavy-duty vehicles and marine vessels.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCoordination between government and the private sector may be needed to ensure the required infrastructure is in place to meet hydrogen demand at the pace necessary to meet decarbonization commitments and with an attractive business case.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe extent of the growth and advancement necessary to establish a hydrogen economy is not without precedent\u0026mdash;historical adoption of natural gas in the European Union since the 1960s and 70s shows that it is possible to rapidly change an established energy system if the necessary competitiveness and support are in place.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex4-v6.svgz","alt":"The future hydrogen economy will likely require infrastructure scale up and tach advancements to meet demand.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eHydrotreated esters and fatty acids (synonymous with the hydrotreated-vegetable-oil process).\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"D8E4001A76A34A8B81D84A6C2F91AB59","name":"Exhibit for Story 5","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Asia is projected to remain the region with the largest hydrogen demand to 2050"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eDespite uncertainties in regional and sectoral demand, Asia is projected to remain the biggest hydrogen consumer across scenarios, largely driven by the demand from chemicals that already exist today, and, to a lesser extent, the transport, iron, and steel sectors in China and India. In Japan and South Korea, a significant share of hydrogen demand is expected to come from electricity generation as ammonia and hydrogen are blended in existing coal and gas plants, respectively. As Asia will likely not produce enough hydrogen to meet its growing demand, the region might rely on imports from Oceania or the Middle East, for instance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Europe and the United States, the chemicals sector is projected to remain a significant driver of hydrogen demand, but new applications in sectors including steel and production of synthetic fuels for aviation, maritime, and heavy road transport are also expected to contribute significantly to demand growth.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex5-v6.svgz","alt":"By region, APAC is projected to have the largest hydrogen demand in 2050, driven by demand in the chemicals sector from China and India.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"9A1AAF6BD051415AB200F5473F958727","name":"Exhibit for Story 6","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Green hydrogen production is projected to be spread across regions, while blue hydrogen production is geography-specific"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eBy 2050, green hydrogen is expected to dominate the global supply mix, with a share of between 50 and 65 percent across scenarios, as cost reductions in renewables and electrolyzers make this production route more cost competitive. Blue hydrogen is projected to account for the next largest share of supply, at between 20 and 35 percent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe ratio of blue to green hydrogen production is expected to differ significantly by region, driven mainly by cost factor developments. Blue hydrogen production is projected to be concentrated in regions with cost-competitive natural gas and CCUS, such as the Middle East and North America. By 2050, blue hydrogen production could require as much as around 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas (between 10 and 15 percent of global natural gas demand in the Further Acceleration scenario), and capacity to capture and store 750 to 1,000 megatons of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGreen hydrogen production is projected to have a higher share in regions with abundant and cost-competitive renewable resources, such as Australia and Iberia. The production of green hydrogen could potentially be constrained by a lack of renewable power. Globally, approximately a quarter of renewable electricity generation (around 14,000 terawatt-hours) could be required to produce the green hydrogen needed by 2050 in the Further Acceleration scenario. Further potential bottlenecks to be tackled to achieve strong green hydrogen uptake include large-scale investments and deployment of at-scale manufacturing of electrolyzers, with cost competitiveness being strongly dependent on the latter.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex6-v6.svgz","alt":"Green hydrogen supply uptake is expected to be similar across all regions, while blue production will be specific to certain geographies.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"81DD5865269F4A8CA62B3AAFB18B657E","name":"Exhibit for Story 7","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"Clean hydrogen cost competitiveness is projected to vary between regions"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eClean hydrogen production costs are expected to drop significantly by 2030\u0026ndash;50, with large differences across regions under the scenarios explored. Cost differentials among regions could drive an increased mismatch between supply and demand centers and thus lead to the development of major hydrogen and hydrogen-derivatives export hubs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRegions with cost-competitive natural gas resources and CCUS, such as the Middle East, Norway, and the United States, are expected to have the highest cost competitiveness and could potentially account for 30 percent of exports at production costs of below $1.5/kg by 2050.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRegions with access to low-cost renewable power, such as Australia or North Africa, could make up an additional 60 percent of exports at production costs of between $1.5/kg and $2/kg.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe growing hydrogen trade could enable uptake in countries that have strong decarbonization ambitions but lack the necessary energy resources for clean hydrogen production, such as parts of Europe, as well as Japan and South Korea.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex7-v6.svgz","alt":"By 2050, regions with production costs under $1.8/kg could export large volumes of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Gray"},"value":{"value":"-bg-lightest-grey"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}},{"id":"24041F3C2C7B46AFAA37D5A7E80A2B91","name":"Exhibit for Story 8","template":{"name":"StoryItem"},"title":{"value":"A global hydrogen trade could emerge to connect demand centers with resource-rich export hubs"},"description":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eMajor hydrogen trade flows are expected to evolve to connect export hubs with favorable renewable power or natural gas resources to two main demand regions: Asia and Europe.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEurope could meet most of its demand from within the region, importing from countries with low gas prices or abundant hydro and solar power, such as Iberia and the Nordics. The remainder could be sourced from the Middle East, North Africa, and North America. Asia could source hydrogen from countries and regions like Australia, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRegions with favorable routes to market\u0026mdash;either by producing and shipping as derivatives or building a strategic network of hydrogen pipelines toward off-takers, potentially re-using existing natural gas infrastructure\u0026mdash;may also emerge as production hubs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhile major trade flows in Europe will likely depend heavily on pipelines, shipping could prove critical to enable overseas trade. Hydrogen shipping could be expedited by converting hydrogen to synfuels (such as ammonia or methanol) at export hubs. Liquid hydrogen shipment could be one way to enable the global hydrogen trade after 2030, potentially increasing to approximately 20 Mtpa traded in 2050 in the faster scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlthough this projected ramp-up of the global hydrogen trade is ambitious, it does have historical precedent\u0026mdash;similar growth was observed in the first 25 years of LNG development.\u003c/p\u003e"},"exhibitImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil and gas/our insights/global energy perspective 2023/hydrogen outlook/svgz-gep2023-hydrogen-ex8-v6.svgz","alt":"By 2050, extensive and deep trade links could connect the globe.","description":""},"scaleToFit":{"boolValue":false},"footnotes":{"value":""},"backgroundTheme":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"White"},"value":{"value":"-bg-white"}}},"mediaPlacement":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Right"},"value":{"value":"is-align-right"}}},"eyebrow":{"value":""},"displayNumber":{"value":""}}]}}]},"interactive":{"results":[]},"sectionheader":{"results":[]},"statementdisruptor":{"results":[]},"fullbleedphoto":{"results":[]},"tocitem":{"results":[]},"quizcontainer":{"results":[]},"generalup":{"results":[]},"twoupmedium":{"results":[]},"accordion":{"results":[]},"factoid":{"results":[]},"promobarwithquote":{"results":[]},"oneupmedium":{"results":[]},"oneupmediumquote":{"results":[]},"gridwall":{"results":[]},"twoupsmall":{"results":[]},"oneclicksubscribe":{"results":[]},"promobar":{"results":[]},"promobanner":{"results":[]},"sectionhero":{"results":[]},"threeuplinklist":{"results":[]},"table":{"results":[]},"explainertooltip":{"results":[]},"isFiveFiftyHorizontalArticle":{"boolValue":false},"fiveFifty":{"results":[]}},"contextItem":{"ancestors":[{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":"Our Insights"},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Oil \u0026 Gas Insights","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients"},"breadCrumbTitle":null,"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":true},"displayName":"Oil \u0026 Gas","template":{"id":"414C6C64AD35440E9668CF39D8A18CCF"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/industries"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":"Industries"},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Industries","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":""},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Home","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}}]}}},"placeholders":{"main-area":[],"sidebar-area":[]}}]}},"itemId":"943728ba-236b-4d2a-85ff-dff49e7c37f7","pageEditing":false,"site":{"name":"website"},"pageState":"normal","language":"en","pageMetaData":{"alternateLanguages":[{"languageCode":"en","displayName":"English","url":"/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-hydrogen-outlook"}],"currentLanguage":"en","navigationLink":"industries","activeItemId":"{10891851-9CC2-4A39-8FB1-8CCCADC8B7C9}","miniSiteId":"{53CBFFC4-895F-4004-9F66-1264A87CE0EA}","officeCode":"","officeDisplayName":"","subscriptionPracticeData":null,"isAlaisedPage":false,"originalHostName":"www.mckinsey.com","updatedDate":"2024-04-11T15:55:35Z","createdDate":"2023-12-22T15:07:25Z","practice":{"isDefaultPractice":false,"name":"Energy, Resources \u0026 Materials","code":"N14","stickyTitle":"Sign up for emails on new Energy, Resources \u0026 Materials articles","stickySubtitle":"Never miss an insight. 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