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data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.unpin">hide</button> </div> <ul class="vector-toc-contents" id="mw-panel-toc-list"> <li id="toc-mw-content-text" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a href="#" class="vector-toc-link"> <div class="vector-toc-text">(Top)</div> </a> </li> <li id="toc-Possibility_of_impact" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Possibility_of_impact"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1</span> <span>Possibility of impact</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Possibility_of_impact-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Necessary_impact_factors" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Necessary_impact_factors"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Necessary impact factors</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Necessary_impact_factors-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Necessary impact factors subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Necessary_impact_factors-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Size" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Size"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Size</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Size-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Composition" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Composition"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>Composition</span> </div> </a> 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id="toc-Mass_ejection_of_regolith-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Multiple_firestorms" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Multiple_firestorms"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.2</span> <span>Multiple firestorms</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Multiple_firestorms-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Past_events" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Past_events"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Past events</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Past_events-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Impact_on_humans" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Impact_on_humans"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>Impact on 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href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%A1_%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%85%D9%8A" title="شتاء تصادمي – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="شتاء تصادمي" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impaktn%C3%AD_zima" title="Impaktní zima – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Impaktní zima" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de badge-Q70894304 mw-list-item" title=""><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impaktwinter" title="Impaktwinter – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Impaktwinter" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86_%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%DB%8C" title="زمستان برخوردی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="زمستان برخوردی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiver_d%27impact" title="Hiver d'impact – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Hiver d'impact" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musim_dingin_tumbukan" title="Musim dingin tumbukan – Indonesian" lang="id" hreflang="id" data-title="Musim dingin tumbukan" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Indonesia" data-language-local-name="Indonesian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Indonesia</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nl mw-list-item"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inslagwinter" title="Inslagwinter – Dutch" lang="nl" hreflang="nl" data-title="Inslagwinter" data-language-autonym="Nederlands" data-language-local-name="Dutch" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Nederlands</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverno_de_impacto" title="Inverno de impacto – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Inverno de impacto" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Português</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98%D0%BC%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0" title="Импактная зима – Russian" 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class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Hypothesized climate effects due to an asteroid or comet impact on Earth</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">For the episode of <i>The West Wing</i>, see <a href="/wiki/Impact_Winter_(The_West_Wing)" class="mw-redirect" title="Impact Winter (The West Wing)">Impact Winter (The West Wing)</a>.</div> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Chicxulub_impact_-_artist_impression.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/Chicxulub_impact_-_artist_impression.jpg/250px-Chicxulub_impact_-_artist_impression.jpg" decoding="async" width="250" height="200" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/Chicxulub_impact_-_artist_impression.jpg/375px-Chicxulub_impact_-_artist_impression.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/Chicxulub_impact_-_artist_impression.jpg/500px-Chicxulub_impact_-_artist_impression.jpg 2x" data-file-width="2785" data-file-height="2228" /></a><figcaption>Artistic impression of an asteroid slamming into tropical, shallow seas of the sulfur-rich <a href="/wiki/Yucat%C3%A1n_Peninsula" title="Yucatán Peninsula">Yucatán Peninsula</a> in what is today <a href="/wiki/Geography_of_Mexico" title="Geography of Mexico">Southeast Mexico</a>. The aftermath of this immense asteroid collision, which occurred approximately 66 million years ago, is believed to have caused <a href="/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_extinction_event" title="Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event">the mass extinction</a> of non-avian <a href="/wiki/Dinosaurs" class="mw-redirect" title="Dinosaurs">dinosaurs</a> and many other species on Earth. The impact spewed hundreds of billions of tons of sulfur into the atmosphere, producing a worldwide blackout and freezing temperatures which persisted for at least a decade.<sup id="cite_ref-nhm.ac.uk_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nhm.ac.uk-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>An <b>impact winter</b> is a hypothesized period of <a href="/wiki/Pleistocene" title="Pleistocene">prolonged cold weather</a> due to the impact of a large <a href="/wiki/Asteroid" title="Asteroid">asteroid</a> or <a href="/wiki/Comet" title="Comet">comet</a> on the <a href="/wiki/Earth" title="Earth">Earth</a>'s surface. If an asteroid were to strike land or a shallow body of water, it would eject an enormous amount of dust, ash, and other material into the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a>, blocking the <a href="/wiki/Radiation" title="Radiation">radiation</a> from the <a href="/wiki/Sun" title="Sun">Sun</a>. This would cause the global temperature to decrease drastically.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Manual_of_Style/Dates_and_numbers" title="Wikipedia:Manual of Style/Dates and numbers"><span title="This term requires quantification. (May 2022)">quantify</span></a></i>]</sup><sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> If an asteroid or comet with the diameter of about 5 km (3.1 mi) or more were to hit in a large deep body of water or explode before hitting the surface, there would still be an enormous amount of debris ejected into the atmosphere.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-LewisEtA107_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LewisEtA107-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It has been proposed that an impact winter could lead to <a href="/wiki/Mass_extinction" class="mw-redirect" title="Mass extinction">mass extinction</a>, wiping out many of the world's existing species. The <a href="/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_extinction_event" title="Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event">Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event</a> probably involved an impact winter, and led to mass extinction of most <a href="/wiki/Tetrapod" title="Tetrapod">tetrapods</a> weighing more than 25 kilograms (55 pounds).<sup id="cite_ref-PrimalF_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-PrimalF-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Possibility_of_impact">Possibility of impact</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Possibility of impact"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Each year, the Earth is hit by 5 m (16 ft) diameter <a href="/wiki/Meteoroids" class="mw-redirect" title="Meteoroids">meteoroids</a> that deliver an explosion 50 km (31 mi) above the surface with the power equivalent of one kiloton of TNT.<sup id="cite_ref-EngvildEtA107_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-EngvildEtA107-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The Earth is hit every day by a <a href="/wiki/Meteor" title="Meteor">meteor</a> less than 5 m (16 ft) in diameter that disintegrates before reaching the surface. The meteors that do make it to the surface tend to strike unpopulated areas and cause no harm. A human is more likely to die in a fire, flood, or other natural disaster than to die because of an asteroid or comet impact.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Another study in 1994 found a 1-in-10,000 chance that the Earth will be hit by a large <a href="/wiki/Asteroid" title="Asteroid">asteroid</a> or <a href="/wiki/Comet" title="Comet">comet</a> with a diameter of about 2 km (1.2 mi) during the next century. This object would be capable of disrupting the <a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_spheres" class="mw-redirect" title="Earth's spheres">ecosphere</a> and would kill a large fraction of the world's population.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> One such object, <a href="/wiki/Asteroid_1950_DA" class="mw-redirect" title="Asteroid 1950 DA">Asteroid 1950 DA</a>, currently has a 0.038% chance of colliding with Earth in the year 2880,<sup id="cite_ref-risk-table_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-risk-table-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> though when first discovered the probability was 0.3%.<sup id="cite_ref-EngvildEtA107_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-EngvildEtA107-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The probability goes down as orbits are refined with additional measurements. </p><p>Over 300 short-period <a href="/wiki/Comets" class="mw-redirect" title="Comets">comets</a> pass near larger planets, such as <a href="/wiki/Saturn" title="Saturn">Saturn</a> and <a href="/wiki/Jupiter" title="Jupiter">Jupiter</a>, which can change the comets' trajectories and could potentially put them into an Earth-crossing orbit. This could happen for long-period comets also but the chance is highest for short-period comets. The chance of these directly impacting Earth is far lower than a <a href="/wiki/Near-Earth_object" title="Near-Earth object">near-Earth object</a> (NEO) impact. <a href="/wiki/Victor_Clube" title="Victor Clube">Victor Clube</a> and <a href="/wiki/William_Napier_(astronomer)" title="William Napier (astronomer)">Bill Napier</a> support a controversial theory that a short-period comet in an Earth-crossing orbit does not need to impact to be hazardous, as it could disintegrate and cause a dust veil with possibilities of a "<a href="/wiki/Nuclear_winter" title="Nuclear winter">nuclear winter</a>" scenario with long-term global cooling lasting for thousands of years (which they consider to be similar in probability to a 1 km impact).<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Necessary_impact_factors">Necessary impact factors</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Necessary impact factors"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The Earth experiences a never-ending barrage of cosmic debris. Small particles burn up as they enter the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a> and are visible as <a href="/wiki/Meteors" class="mw-redirect" title="Meteors">meteors</a>. Many of them go unnoticed by the average person even though not all of them burn up before they hit the Earth's surface. Those that strike the surface are known as <a href="/wiki/Meteorites" class="mw-redirect" title="Meteorites">meteorites</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-LewisEtA107_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LewisEtA107-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Thus, not every object that hits the Earth will cause an <a href="/wiki/Extinction-level_event" class="mw-redirect" title="Extinction-level event">extinction-level event</a> or even cause any real harm. Objects release most of their <a href="/wiki/Kinetic_energy" title="Kinetic energy">kinetic energy</a> in the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a> and will explode if they experience a column of <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a> greater than or equal to their <a href="/wiki/Mass" title="Mass">mass</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Extinction-level impacts on the Earth occur about every 100 million years.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-LewisEtA107_4-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LewisEtA107-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-CoveyEtA107_12-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CoveyEtA107-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Although extinction events happen very rarely, large projectiles can do severe damage.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-CoveyEtA107_12-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CoveyEtA107-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This section will discuss the nature of the hazards posed by projectiles as a function of their size and composition. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Size">Size</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Size"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>A large <a href="/wiki/Asteroid" title="Asteroid">asteroid</a> or <a href="/wiki/Comet" title="Comet">comet</a> could collide with the Earth's surface with the force of hundreds to thousands of times the force of all the <a href="/wiki/Nuclear_bombs" class="mw-redirect" title="Nuclear bombs">nuclear bombs</a> on the Earth.<sup id="cite_ref-LewisEtA107_4-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LewisEtA107-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For example, the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event has been proposed to have caused extinction of all non-avian dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Early estimates of this <a href="/wiki/Asteroid" title="Asteroid">asteroid</a>'s size put it at about 10 km (6.2 mi) in diameter. This means it hit with nearly a force of 100,000,000 MT (418 ZJ).<sup id="cite_ref-Alvarez_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Alvarez-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> That is over six billion times larger than the atomic bomb yield (16 kilotons, 67 TJ) that was dropped on <a href="/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki" title="Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki">Hiroshima</a> during WW2. This impactor excavated the <a href="/wiki/Chicxulub_crater" title="Chicxulub crater">Chicxulub crater</a> that is 180 km (110 mi) in diameter. With an object this size, dust and debris would still be ejected into the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a> even if it hit the ocean, which is only 4 km (2.5 mi) deep.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> An <a href="/wiki/Asteroid" title="Asteroid">asteroid</a>, <a href="/wiki/Meteor" title="Meteor">meteor</a>, or <a href="/wiki/Comet" title="Comet">comet</a> would remain intact through the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a> by virtue of its sheer mass. However, an object smaller than 3 km (1.9 mi) would have to have a strong <a href="/wiki/Iron" title="Iron">iron</a> composition to breach the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth#Stratification" title="Atmosphere of Earth">lower atmosphere</a> - the <a href="/wiki/Troposphere" title="Troposphere">troposphere</a> or the lower levels of the <a href="/wiki/Stratosphere" title="Stratosphere">stratosphere</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Composition">Composition</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Composition"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>There are three different composition types for an asteroid or comet: <a href="/wiki/Metal" title="Metal">metallic</a>, <a href="/wiki/Stone" class="mw-redirect" title="Stone">stony</a> and <a href="/wiki/Ice" title="Ice">icy</a>. The composition of the object determines whether or not it will make it to the Earth's surface in one piece, disintegrate before breaching the atmosphere, or break up and explode just before reaching the surface.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-LewisEtA107_4-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LewisEtA107-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A metallic object tends to be made up of iron and <a href="/wiki/Nickel" title="Nickel">nickel</a> alloys.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These metallic objects are the most likely to impact the surface because they stand up better to the stresses of <a href="/wiki/Ram_pressure" title="Ram pressure">ram pressure</a> induced <a href="/wiki/Flattening" title="Flattening">flattening</a> and fragmentation during <a href="/wiki/Deceleration" class="mw-redirect" title="Deceleration">deceleration in the atmosphere</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The stony objects, like chondritic meteorites, tend to burn, break up, or explode before leaving the upper atmosphere. Those that do make it to the surface need a minimum energy of about 10 <a href="/wiki/TNT_equivalent" title="TNT equivalent">Mt</a> (4<span style="margin:0 .15em 0 .25em">×</span>10<sup>16</sup> <a href="/wiki/Joule" title="Joule">J</a>) or about 50 m (160 ft) diameter to breach the <a href="/wiki/Troposphere" title="Troposphere">lower atmosphere</a> (this is for a stony object hitting at 20 kilometres per second (40,000 mph)). The porous comet-like objects are made up of <a href="/wiki/Silicates" class="mw-redirect" title="Silicates">low-density silicates</a>, <a href="/wiki/Organic_compound" title="Organic compound">organics</a>, ice, <a href="/wiki/Volatility_(chemistry)" title="Volatility (chemistry)">volatile</a> and often burn up in the <a href="/wiki/Upper_atmosphere" title="Upper atmosphere">upper atmosphere</a> because of their <a href="/wiki/Density" title="Density">low bulk density</a> (≤1 g/cm<sup>3</sup> (60 lb/cu ft)).<sup id="cite_ref-ChampmanEtA107_2-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ChampmanEtA107-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Possible_mechanisms">Possible mechanisms</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Possible mechanisms"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Younger_Dryas_impact_hypothesis" title="Younger Dryas impact hypothesis">Younger Dryas impact hypothesis</a></div> <p>Although the <a href="/wiki/Asteroids" class="mw-redirect" title="Asteroids">asteroids</a> and <a href="/wiki/Comets" class="mw-redirect" title="Comets">comets</a> that impact the Earth hit with many times the explosive force of a <a href="/wiki/Volcano" title="Volcano">volcano</a>, the mechanisms of an impact winter are similar to those that occur after a mega-<a href="/wiki/Volcanic_eruption" class="mw-redirect" title="Volcanic eruption">volcanic eruption</a>-induced <a href="/wiki/Volcanic_winter" title="Volcanic winter">volcanic winter</a>. In this scenario massive amounts of debris injected into the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a> would block some of the <a href="/wiki/Sun_radiation" class="mw-redirect" title="Sun radiation">Sun's radiation</a> for an extended period of time and lower the mean global temperature by as much as 20 °C after a year.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The two main mechanisms that could lead to an impact winter are mass ejection of <a href="/wiki/Regolith" title="Regolith">regolith</a> and multiple <a href="/wiki/Firestorms" class="mw-redirect" title="Firestorms">firestorms</a>. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Mass_ejection_of_regolith">Mass ejection of regolith</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Mass ejection of regolith"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Supervolcano" title="Supervolcano">Supervolcano</a>, <a href="/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory" class="mw-redirect" title="Toba catastrophe theory">Toba catastrophe theory</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Yellowstone_caldera#Hazards" class="mw-redirect" title="Yellowstone caldera">Yellowstone caldera § Hazards</a></div> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Airborne-particulate-size-chart.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Airborne-particulate-size-chart.svg/200px-Airborne-particulate-size-chart.svg.png" decoding="async" width="200" height="237" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Airborne-particulate-size-chart.svg/300px-Airborne-particulate-size-chart.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Airborne-particulate-size-chart.svg/400px-Airborne-particulate-size-chart.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="501" data-file-height="594" /></a><figcaption>This diagram shows the size distribution in micrometres of various types of atmospheric <a href="/wiki/Particulate_matter" class="mw-redirect" title="Particulate matter">particulate matter</a>.</figcaption></figure> <p>In a study conducted by Curt Covey et al., it was found that an <a href="/wiki/Asteroid" title="Asteroid">asteroid</a> about 10 km (6.2 mi) in diameter with the <a href="/wiki/Explosive_force" class="mw-redirect" title="Explosive force">explosive force</a> of about 10<sup>8</sup> MT could send upward of about 2.5x10<sup>15</sup> kg of 1 <a href="/wiki/Micrometre" title="Micrometre">μm</a> sized <a href="/wiki/Aerosol" title="Aerosol">aerosol</a> particles into the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a>. Anything larger would fall quickly back to the surface.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These particles would then be spread throughout the atmosphere and absorb or <a href="/wiki/Refract" class="mw-redirect" title="Refract">refract</a> the sunlight before it is able to reach the surface, cooling the planet in a similar fashion as the <a href="/wiki/Toba_eruption#Volcanic_winter_and_cooling" class="mw-redirect" title="Toba eruption">sulfurous aerosol</a> rising from a <a href="/wiki/Megavolcano" class="mw-redirect" title="Megavolcano">megavolcano</a>, producing deep <a href="/wiki/Global_dimming" title="Global dimming">global dimming</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-BainsEtA107_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BainsEtA107-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This is <a href="/wiki/Toba_eruption#Volcanic_winter_and_cooling" class="mw-redirect" title="Toba eruption">controversially</a> purported to have occurred following the <a href="/wiki/Toba_eruption" class="mw-redirect" title="Toba eruption">Toba eruption</a>. </p><p>These pulverized rock particles would remain in the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a> until <a href="/wiki/Dry_deposition" class="mw-redirect" title="Dry deposition">dry deposition</a> and due to their size, they would also act as <a href="/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei" title="Cloud condensation nuclei">cloud condensation nuclei</a> and would be washed out by <a href="/wiki/Wet_deposition" class="mw-redirect" title="Wet deposition">wet deposition</a>/precipitation, but even then, about 15% of the <a href="/wiki/Sun_radiation" class="mw-redirect" title="Sun radiation">sun's radiation</a> might not reach the surface.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Please_clarify" title="Wikipedia:Please clarify"><span title="The reason for this is unclear. (December 2013)">why?</span></a></i>]</sup> After the first 20 days, the land temperature might drop quickly, by about 13 °C. After about a year, the temperature could rebound by about 6 °C, but by this time about one-third of the Northern Hemisphere might be covered in ice.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>However, this effect could be largely mitigated, even reversed, by a release of enormous quantities of water vapor and carbon dioxide caused by the initial global heat pulse after the impact. If the asteroid hit an ocean (which would be the case with the majority of impact events), water vapor would form the majority of any ejected matter, and would likely result in a major <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">greenhouse effect</a> and a net increase in temperature.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (December 2019)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>If the impact event is sufficiently energetic it might cause <a href="/wiki/Mantle_plume" title="Mantle plume">mantle plume</a> (volcanism) at the <a href="/wiki/Antipodal_point" title="Antipodal point">antipodal point</a> (the opposite side of the world).<sup id="cite_ref-Hagstrum_2005_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Hagstrum_2005-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This volcanism could alone therefore create a <a href="/wiki/Volcanic_winter" title="Volcanic winter">volcanic winter</a>, irrespective of the other impact effects. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Multiple_firestorms">Multiple firestorms</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Multiple firestorms"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Nuclear_winter" title="Nuclear winter">Nuclear winter</a></div> <p>In combination with the initial debris ejected into the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmosphere</a>, if the impactor is extremely large (3 km (1.9 mi) or more), like at the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event (estimated 10 km (6.2 mi)), there might be the ignition of multiple <a href="/wiki/Fire_storm" class="mw-redirect" title="Fire storm">fire storms</a>, possibly with a global reach into every dense and therefore firestorm-prone forest. These wood fires might release enough amounts of water vapor, ash, soot, tar and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to <a href="/wiki/Nuclear_winter" title="Nuclear winter">perturb the climate on their own</a> and cause the pulverized rock dust cloud blocking the sun to last longer. Alternatively it could cause it to last for a much shorter time, as there would be more water vapor for the rocky aerosol particles to form <a href="/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei" title="Cloud condensation nuclei">cloud condensation nuclei</a>. If it causes the dust cloud to last longer, it would prolong the Earth's cooling time, possibly causing thicker ice sheets to form.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-BainsEtA107_14-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BainsEtA107-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Past_events">Past events</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Past events"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main articles: <a href="/wiki/Chicxulub_crater" title="Chicxulub crater">Chicxulub crater</a> and <a href="/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_extinction_event" title="Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event">Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event</a></div> <p>In 2016, a scientific drilling project drilled deep into the <a href="/wiki/Peak_ring" title="Peak ring">peak ring</a> of the Chicxulub impact crater to obtain <a href="/wiki/Rock_core" class="mw-redirect" title="Rock core">rock core</a> samples from the impact itself. This crater is one of the best known impact craters and was the impact responsible for the extinction of the non-avian <a href="/wiki/Dinosaur" title="Dinosaur">dinosaurs</a>. </p><p>The discoveries were widely seen as confirming current theories related to both the crater impact and its effects. They confirmed that the rock comprising the peak ring had been subjected to immense pressures and forces, and had been melted by immense heat and shocked by immense pressure from its usual state into its present form in just minutes. The fact that the peak ring was made of granite was also significant, since granite is not a rock found in sea-floor deposits – it originates much deeper in the earth and had been ejected to the surface by the immense pressures of impact. <a href="/wiki/Gypsum" title="Gypsum">Gypsum</a>, a <a href="/wiki/Sulfate" title="Sulfate">sulfate</a>-containing rock that <i>is</i> usually present in the shallow seabed of the region, had been almost entirely removed and must therefore have been almost entirely vaporized and entered the atmosphere, and that the event was immediately followed by a huge <a href="/wiki/Megatsunami" title="Megatsunami">megatsunami</a> (a massive movement of sea waters) sufficient to lay down the largest known layer of sand separated by grain size directly above the peak ring. </p><p>These strongly support the hypothesis that the impactor was large enough to create a 120-mile peak ring, eject molten granite from deep within the earth, create colossal water movements, and eject an immense quantity of vaporized rock and sulfates into the atmosphere, where they would have persisted for a long time. This global dispersion of dust and sulfates would have led to a sudden and catastrophic effect on the climate worldwide by causing large temperature drops, devastating the <a href="/wiki/Food_chain" title="Food chain">food chain</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Impact_on_humans">Impact on humans</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Impact on humans"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Tobaeruption.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/Tobaeruption.png/220px-Tobaeruption.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="163" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/Tobaeruption.png/330px-Tobaeruption.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/Tobaeruption.png/440px-Tobaeruption.png 2x" data-file-width="1620" data-file-height="1200" /></a><figcaption>Artist's impression of the <a href="/wiki/Toba_eruption" class="mw-redirect" title="Toba eruption">Toba eruption</a>, circa 74,000 years ago. Some scientists believe this eruption led to a population collapse and subsequent <a href="/wiki/Genetic_bottleneck" class="mw-redirect" title="Genetic bottleneck">genetic bottleneck</a> in humans.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>An impact winter would have a devastating effect on humans, as well as the other species on Earth. With the <a href="/wiki/Sun_radiation" class="mw-redirect" title="Sun radiation">sun's radiation</a> being severely diminished, the first species to die would be plants and animals who survive through the process of <a href="/wiki/Photosynthesis" title="Photosynthesis">photosynthesis</a>. This lack of food would ultimately lead to other mass extinctions of other animals that are higher up on the <a href="/wiki/Food_chain" title="Food chain">food chain</a> and possibly kill up to 25% of the human population.<sup id="cite_ref-EngvildEtA107_6-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-EngvildEtA107-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Depending on location and size of the initial impact, the cost of clean-up efforts could be so high as to cause an <a href="/wiki/Economic_crisis" class="mw-redirect" title="Economic crisis">economic crisis</a> for the survivors.<sup id="cite_ref-BobEtA107_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BobEtA107-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These factors would make life on Earth, for humans, extremely difficult. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Agriculture">Agriculture</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Agriculture"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Svalbard_seedbank" class="mw-redirect" title="Svalbard seedbank">Svalbard seedbank</a></div> <p>With the <a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_atmosphere" class="mw-redirect" title="Earth's atmosphere">Earth's atmosphere</a> full of dust and other material, <a href="/wiki/Radiation" title="Radiation">radiation from the sun</a> would be refracted and scattered back into space and absorbed by this debris. The first effect on the Earth, after the <a href="/wiki/Blast_wave" title="Blast wave">blast wave</a> and potential multiple <a href="/wiki/Fire_storm" class="mw-redirect" title="Fire storm">fire storms</a>, would be the death of most, if not all, of the <a href="/wiki/Photosynthetic" class="mw-redirect" title="Photosynthetic">photosynthetic life forms</a> on Earth. Those in the ocean that survive would possibly become dormant until the sun came out again.<sup id="cite_ref-MaccrackenEtA107_3-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MaccrackenEtA107-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-EngvildEtA107_6-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-EngvildEtA107-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Those on land could possibly be kept alive in underground <a href="/wiki/Microclimate" title="Microclimate">microclimates</a>, with one such example being the <a href="/wiki/Zbra%C5%A1ov_aragonite_caves" class="mw-redirect" title="Zbrašov aragonite caves">Zbrašov aragonite caves</a>. Greenhouses in underground complexes with fossil or nuclear energy power stations could conceivably keep artificial sunlight <a href="/wiki/Grow_light" title="Grow light">growing lamps</a> on until the atmosphere began to clear. Meanwhile, those outside that were not killed by the lack of sunlight would most likely be killed or kept dormant by the extreme cold of the impact winter. This death of plants might lead to a long period of <a href="/wiki/Famine" title="Famine">famine</a> if enough people survived the initial blast wave and would result in increased food costs in undeveloped countries only a few months after the first crop failures. Developed countries wouldn't encounter <a href="/wiki/Famine" title="Famine">famine</a> unless the cooling event was to last longer than a year, due to larger <a href="/wiki/Canned_food" class="mw-redirect" title="Canned food">canned food</a> and <a href="/wiki/Grain" title="Grain">grain</a> stockpiles in these countries. However, if the impactor was similar in size to the K/T boundary impactor, agricultural losses might not be compensated with imports to the northern hemisphere from the southern hemisphere or vice versa.<sup id="cite_ref-EngvildEtA107_6-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-EngvildEtA107-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-BobEtA107_19-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BobEtA107-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The only way to keep from starving would be for each country to amass at least a year's worth of food for their people. Not many countries have this; the world's average cereal stock levels are only about 30% of the yearly production.<sup id="cite_ref-EngvildEtA107_6-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-EngvildEtA107-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-LewisEtA108_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LewisEtA108-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Economics">Economics</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Economics"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The cost to clean up after an asteroid or comet impact would cost billions to trillions of dollars, depending on the location impacted.<sup id="cite_ref-BobEtA107_19-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BobEtA107-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-LewisEtA108_20-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-LewisEtA108-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> An impact in <a href="/wiki/New_York_City" title="New York City">New York City</a> (the 16th most populated city in the world) could cost billions of dollars in financial losses and it could take years for the financial sector (i.e. <a href="/wiki/Stock_market" title="Stock market">stock market</a>) to recover.<sup id="cite_ref-BobEtA107_19-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BobEtA107-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, the probability of such a naturally specifically aimed impact would be exceedingly low. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Survivability">Survivability</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Survivability"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Asteroid_impact_avoidance" title="Asteroid impact avoidance">Asteroid impact avoidance</a>, <a href="/wiki/Duck_and_cover" title="Duck and cover">Duck and cover</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Civil_defense" title="Civil defense">Civil defense</a></div> <p>As of February 20, 2018<sup class="plainlinks noexcerpt noprint asof-tag update" style="display:none;"><a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit">[update]</a></sup>, there are 17,841 <a href="/wiki/Near-Earth_object" title="Near-Earth object">near-Earth objects</a> known. 8,059 potentially hazardous objects are known; they are larger than 140 m (460 ft) and may approach the Earth closer than 20 times the distance to the <a href="/wiki/Moon" title="Moon">Moon</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-EngvildEtA107_6-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-EngvildEtA107-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> 888 NEAs larger than 1 km have been discovered,<sup id="cite_ref-neo-jpl-stats_21-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-neo-jpl-stats-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> or 96.5% of an estimated total of about 920.<sup id="cite_ref-NEA1km-est-2017_22-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NEA1km-est-2017-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Asteroid_deflection_strategies" class="mw-redirect" title="Asteroid deflection strategies">Asteroid deflection strategies</a> – Methods to prevent destructive asteroid hits<span style="display:none" class="category-annotation-with-redirected-description">Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets</span></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth_Impact_Database" title="Earth Impact Database">Earth Impact Database</a> – Database of impact structures on Earth</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_dimming" title="Global dimming">global dimming</a> – Reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Impact_event" title="Impact event">Impact event</a> – Collision of two astronomical objects</li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_notable_asteroids" class="mw-redirect" title="List of notable asteroids">List of notable asteroids</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Near-Earth_objects" class="mw-redirect" title="Near-Earth objects">Near-Earth objects</a> – Small Solar System body with an orbit that can bring it close to Earth<span style="display:none" class="category-annotation-with-redirected-description">Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets</span></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_winter" title="Nuclear winter">Nuclear winter</a> – Hypothetical climatic effect of nuclear war</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Volcanic_winter" title="Volcanic winter">Volcanic winter</a> – Temperature anomaly event caused by a volcanic eruption</li></ul> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Asteroids_in_fiction" title="Asteroids in fiction">Asteroids in fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Comets_in_fiction" title="Comets in fiction">Comets in fiction</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Impact_winter&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 33em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-nhm.ac.uk-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-nhm.ac.uk_1-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFOsterloff2018" class="citation web cs1">Osterloff, Emily (2018). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/how-an-asteroid-caused-extinction-of-dinosaurs.html">"How an asteroid ended the age of the dinosaurs"</a>. <a href="/wiki/London" title="London">London</a>: <a href="/wiki/Natural_History_Museum,_London" title="Natural History Museum, London">Natural History Museum</a>. <a rel="nofollow" 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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20060114033959/http://www.geotimes.org/june04/WebExtra062404.html"><i>Geotimes</i> story on the Chicxulub impact and the possibility of an impact winter</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20010715103024/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/">NASA's Near Earth Object Program</a></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ul,.mw-parser-output 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aria-labelledby="Global_catastrophic_risks750" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239400231">.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-collapse{float:left;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .navbar-boxtext{word-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .navbar ul{display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap;line-height:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::before{margin-right:-0.125em;content:"[ "}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::after{margin-left:-0.125em;content:" ]"}.mw-parser-output .navbar li{word-spacing:-0.125em}.mw-parser-output .navbar a>span,.mw-parser-output .navbar a>abbr{text-decoration:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-mini abbr{font-variant:small-caps;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none;cursor:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-full{font-size:114%;margin:0 7em}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-mini{font-size:114%;margin:0 4em}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}}@media print{.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:none!important}}</style><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Global_catastrophic_risks" title="Template:Global catastrophic risks"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Global_catastrophic_risks" title="Template talk:Global catastrophic risks"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Global_catastrophic_risks" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Global catastrophic risks"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Global_catastrophic_risks750" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk" title="Global catastrophic risk">Global catastrophic risks</a></div></th></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Future_of_Earth" title="Future of Earth">Future of the Earth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Future_of_an_expanding_universe" title="Future of an expanding universe">Future of an expanding universe</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ultimate_fate_of_the_universe" title="Ultimate fate of the universe">Ultimate fate of the universe</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Technological</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chemical_warfare" title="Chemical warfare">Chemical warfare</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cyberattack" title="Cyberattack">Cyberattack</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cyberwarfare" title="Cyberwarfare">Cyberwarfare</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cyberterrorism" title="Cyberterrorism">Cyberterrorism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cybergeddon" title="Cybergeddon">Cybergeddon</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gray_goo" title="Gray goo">Gray goo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Industrial_applications_of_nanotechnology#Weapons" title="Industrial applications of nanotechnology">Nanoweapons</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment" title="Kinetic bombardment">Kinetic bombardment</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Kinetic_energy_weapon" title="Kinetic energy weapon">Kinetic energy weapon</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_warfare" title="Nuclear warfare">Nuclear warfare</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction" title="Mutual assured destruction">Mutual assured destruction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dead_Hand" title="Dead Hand">Dead Hand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Doomsday_Clock" title="Doomsday Clock">Doomsday Clock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Doomsday_device" title="Doomsday device">Doomsday device</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Antimatter_weapon" title="Antimatter weapon">Antimatter weapon</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse" title="Electromagnetic pulse">Electromagnetic pulse</a> (EMP)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Safety_of_high-energy_particle_collision_experiments" title="Safety of high-energy particle collision experiments">Safety of high-energy particle collision experiments</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Micro_black_hole" title="Micro black hole">Micro black hole</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Strangelet" title="Strangelet">Strangelet</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Synthetic_intelligence" title="Synthetic intelligence">Synthetic intelligence</a> / <a href="/wiki/Artificial_intelligence" title="Artificial intelligence">Artificial intelligence</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/AI_takeover" title="AI takeover">AI takeover</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence" class="mw-redirect" title="Existential risk from artificial general intelligence">Existential risk from artificial intelligence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Technological_singularity" title="Technological singularity">Technological singularity</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Transhumanism" title="Transhumanism">Transhumanism</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Sociological</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Anthropogenic_hazard" class="mw-redirect" title="Anthropogenic hazard">Anthropogenic hazard</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Collapsology" title="Collapsology">Collapsology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Doomsday_argument" title="Doomsday argument">Doomsday argument</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Self-indication_assumption_doomsday_argument_rebuttal" title="Self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal">Self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-referencing_doomsday_argument_rebuttal" title="Self-referencing doomsday argument rebuttal">Self-referencing doomsday argument rebuttal</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_collapse" title="Economic collapse">Economic collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Malthusianism" title="Malthusianism">Malthusian catastrophe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_World_Order_(conspiracy_theory)" class="mw-redirect" title="New World Order (conspiracy theory)">New World Order (conspiracy theory)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust" title="Nuclear holocaust">Nuclear holocaust</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cobalt_bomb" title="Cobalt bomb">cobalt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_famine" title="Nuclear famine">famine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_winter" title="Nuclear winter">winter</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Societal_collapse" title="Societal collapse">Societal collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/State_collapse" title="State collapse">State collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_War_III" title="World War III">World War III</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Climate_apocalypse" title="Climate apocalypse">Ecological</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate change</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biodiversity_loss" title="Biodiversity loss">Biodiversity loss</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cascade_effect_(ecology)" title="Cascade effect (ecology)">Cascade effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cataclysmic_pole_shift_hypothesis" title="Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis">Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse" title="Climate change and civilizational collapse">Climate change and civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deforestation" title="Deforestation">Deforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Desertification" title="Desertification">Desertification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk from climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_basalt" title="Flood basalt">Flood basalt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_dimming" title="Global dimming">Global dimming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_terrestrial_stilling" title="Global terrestrial stilling">Global terrestrial stilling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change" title="Climate change">Global warming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hypercane" title="Hypercane">Hypercane</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ice_age" title="Ice age">Ice age</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecocide" title="Ecocide">Ecocide</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_collapse" class="mw-redirect" title="Ecological collapse">Ecological collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Environmental_degradation" title="Environmental degradation">Environmental degradation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Habitat_destruction" title="Habitat destruction">Habitat destruction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_the_environment" title="Human impact on the environment">Human impact on the environment</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Environmental_issues_with_coral_reefs" title="Environmental issues with coral reefs">coral reefs</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life" title="Human impact on marine life">on marine life</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_degradation" title="Land degradation">Land degradation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_consumption" title="Land consumption">Land consumption</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_surface_effects_on_climate" title="Land surface effects on climate">Land surface effects on climate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">Ocean acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Resource_depletion" title="Resource depletion">Resource depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supervolcano" title="Supervolcano">Supervolcano</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Volcanic_winter" title="Volcanic winter">winter</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Verneshot" title="Verneshot">Verneshot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_pollution" title="Water pollution">Water pollution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day" title="Earth Overshoot Day">Earth Overshoot Day</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Overexploitation" title="Overexploitation">Overexploitation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overpopulation" title="Overpopulation">Overpopulation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Human_overpopulation" title="Human overpopulation">Human overpopulation</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Biological</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Extinction" title="Extinction">Extinction</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_event" title="Extinction event">Extinction event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Holocene_extinction" title="Holocene extinction">Holocene extinction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_extinction" title="Human extinction">Human extinction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_extinction_events" title="List of extinction events">List of extinction events</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Genetic_erosion" title="Genetic erosion">Genetic erosion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Genetic_pollution" title="Genetic pollution">Genetic pollution</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Others</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Biodiversity_loss" title="Biodiversity loss">Biodiversity loss</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Decline_in_amphibian_populations" title="Decline in amphibian populations">Decline in amphibian populations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Decline_in_insect_populations" title="Decline in insect populations">Decline in insect populations</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biotechnology_risk" title="Biotechnology risk">Biotechnology risk</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Biological_agent" title="Biological agent">Biological agent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_warfare" title="Biological warfare">Biological warfare</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bioterrorism" title="Bioterrorism">Bioterrorism</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Colony_collapse_disorder" title="Colony collapse disorder">Colony collapse disorder</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Defaunation" title="Defaunation">Defaunation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dysgenics" title="Dysgenics">Dysgenics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interplanetary_contamination" title="Interplanetary contamination">Interplanetary contamination</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pandemic" title="Pandemic">Pandemic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pollinator_decline" title="Pollinator decline">Pollinator decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overfishing" title="Overfishing">Overfishing</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Astronomical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Big_Crunch" title="Big Crunch">Big Crunch</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Big_Rip" title="Big Rip">Big Rip</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection" title="Coronal mass ejection">Coronal mass ejection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cosmological_phase_transition" title="Cosmological phase transition">Cosmological phase transition</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm" title="Geomagnetic storm">Geomagnetic storm</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/False_vacuum_decay" class="mw-redirect" title="False vacuum decay">False vacuum decay</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gamma-ray_burst" title="Gamma-ray burst">Gamma-ray burst</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe" title="Heat death of the universe">Heat death of the universe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proton_decay" title="Proton decay">Proton decay</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Virtual_black_hole" title="Virtual black hole">Virtual black hole</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Impact_event" title="Impact event">Impact event</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Asteroid_impact_avoidance" title="Asteroid impact avoidance">Asteroid impact avoidance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Asteroid_impact_prediction" title="Asteroid impact prediction">Asteroid impact prediction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Potentially_hazardous_object" title="Potentially hazardous object">Potentially hazardous object</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Near-Earth_object" title="Near-Earth object">Near-Earth object</a></li></ul></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">winter</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rogue_planet" title="Rogue planet">Rogue planet</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intergalactic_star" title="Intergalactic star">Rogue star</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Near-Earth_supernova" title="Near-Earth supernova">Near-Earth supernova</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hypernova" title="Hypernova">Hypernova</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Micronova" title="Micronova">Micronova</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Solar_flare" title="Solar flare">Solar flare</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stellar_collision" title="Stellar collision">Stellar collision</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Eschatology" title="Eschatology">Eschatological</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Buddhist_eschatology" title="Buddhist eschatology">Buddhist</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Maitreya" title="Maitreya">Maitreya</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Three_Ages_of_Buddhism" class="mw-redirect" title="Three Ages of Buddhism">Three Ages</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hindu_eschatology" title="Hindu eschatology">Hindu</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Kalki" title="Kalki">Kalki</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kali_Yuga" title="Kali Yuga">Kali Yuga</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Last_Judgment" title="Last Judgment">Last Judgement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Second_Coming" title="Second Coming">Second Coming</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Book_of_Enoch" title="Book of Enoch">1 Enoch</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Book_of_Daniel" title="Book of Daniel">Daniel</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abomination_of_desolation" title="Abomination of desolation">Abomination of desolation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Prophecy_of_Seventy_Weeks" title="Prophecy of Seventy Weeks">Prophecy of Seventy Weeks</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Messiah" title="Messiah">Messiah</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Christian_eschatology" title="Christian eschatology">Christian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Futurism_(Christianity)" title="Futurism (Christianity)">Futurism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Historicism_(Christianity)" title="Historicism (Christianity)">Historicism</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Historicist_interpretations_of_the_Book_of_Revelation" title="Historicist interpretations of the Book of Revelation">Interpretations of Revelation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Idealism_(Christian_eschatology)" title="Idealism (Christian eschatology)"> Idealism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Preterism" title="Preterism">Preterism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2_Esdras" title="2 Esdras">2 Esdras</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Second_Epistle_to_the_Thessalonians" title="Second Epistle to the Thessalonians">2 Thessalonians</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Man_of_sin" title="Man of sin">Man of sin</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Katechon" title="Katechon">Katechon</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Antichrist" title="Antichrist">Antichrist</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Book_of_Revelation" title="Book of Revelation">Book of Revelation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Events_of_Revelation" title="Events of Revelation">Events</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_Apocalypse" title="Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse">Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lake_of_fire" title="Lake of fire">Lake of fire</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Number_of_the_beast" title="Number of the beast">Number of the Beast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seven_bowls" title="Seven bowls">Seven bowls</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seven_seals" title="Seven seals">Seven seals</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Beast_(Revelation)" title="The Beast (Revelation)">The Beast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Two_witnesses" title="Two witnesses">Two witnesses</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/War_in_Heaven" title="War in Heaven">War in Heaven</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Whore_of_Babylon" title="Whore of Babylon">Whore of Babylon</a></li></ul></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Apostasy" title="Great Apostasy">Great Apostasy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_Earth_(Christianity)" title="New Earth (Christianity)">New Earth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_Jerusalem" title="New Jerusalem">New Jerusalem</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Olivet_Discourse" title="Olivet Discourse">Olivet Discourse</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Great_Tribulation" title="Great Tribulation">Great Tribulation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Son_of_perdition" title="Son of perdition">Son of perdition</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Sheep_and_the_Goats" title="The Sheep and the Goats">Sheep and Goats</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Islamic_eschatology" title="Islamic eschatology">Islamic</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Qa%27im_Al_Muhammad" title="Qa'im Al Muhammad">Al-Qa'im</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Beast_of_the_Earth" title="Beast of the Earth">Beast of the Earth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dhu_al-Qarnayn" title="Dhu al-Qarnayn">Dhu al-Qarnayn</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dhul-Suwayqatayn" title="Dhul-Suwayqatayn">Dhul-Suwayqatayn</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Al-Masih_ad-Dajjal" title="Al-Masih ad-Dajjal">Dajjal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Israfil" title="Israfil">Israfil</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mahdi" title="Mahdi">Mahdi</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sufyani" title="Sufyani">Sufyani</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jewish_eschatology" title="Jewish eschatology">Jewish</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Messiah_in_Judaism" title="Messiah in Judaism">Messiah</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gog_and_Magog" title="Gog and Magog">War of Gog and Magog</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Third_Temple" title="Third Temple">Third Temple</a></li></ul></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ragnar%C3%B6k" title="Ragnarök">Norse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frashokereti" title="Frashokereti">Zoroastrian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Saoshyant" title="Saoshyant">Saoshyant</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Others</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2011_end_times_prediction" title="2011 end times prediction">2011 end times prediction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2012_phenomenon" title="2012 phenomenon">2012 phenomenon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Apocalypse" title="Apocalypse">Apocalypse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Apocalyptic_literature" title="Apocalyptic literature">Apocalyptic literature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Apocalypticism" title="Apocalypticism">Apocalypticism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Armageddon" title="Armageddon">Armageddon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Blood_moon_prophecy" title="Blood moon prophecy">Blood moon prophecy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth_Changes" title="Earth Changes">Earth Changes</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk" title="Global catastrophic risk">End time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gog_and_Magog" title="Gog and Magog">Gog and Magog</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events" title="List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events">List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Messianism" title="Messianism">Messianism</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Messianic_Age" title="Messianic Age">Messianic Age</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Millenarianism" title="Millenarianism">Millenarianism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Millennialism" title="Millennialism">Millennialism</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Premillennialism" title="Premillennialism">Premillennialism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Amillennialism" title="Amillennialism">Amillennialism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Postmillennialism" title="Postmillennialism">Postmillennialism</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nemesis_(hypothetical_star)" title="Nemesis (hypothetical star)">Nemesis (hypothetical star)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nibiru_cataclysm" title="Nibiru cataclysm">Nibiru cataclysm</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rapture" title="Rapture">Rapture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Rapture#Prewrath_premillennialism" title="Rapture">Prewrath</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Posttribulation_rapture" title="Posttribulation rapture">Posttribulation rapture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Universal_resurrection" title="Universal resurrection">Resurrection of the dead</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_to_come" title="World to come">World to come</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Fictional</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Alien_invasion" title="Alien invasion">Alien invasion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Apocalyptic_and_post-apocalyptic_fiction" title="Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction">Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/List_of_apocalyptic_and_post-apocalyptic_fiction" title="List of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction">List of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_apocalyptic_films" title="List of apocalyptic films">List of apocalyptic films</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">Climate fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_film" title="Disaster film">Disaster films</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/List_of_disaster_films" title="List of disaster films">List of disaster films</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Zombie_apocalypse" title="Zombie apocalypse">Zombie apocalypse</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Zombie" title="Zombie">Zombie</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Organizations</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Centre_for_the_Study_of_Existential_Risk" title="Centre for the Study of Existential Risk">Centre for the Study of Existential Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute" title="Future of Humanity Institute">Future of Humanity Institute</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Future_of_Life_Institute" title="Future of Life Institute">Future of Life Institute</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_Threat_Initiative" title="Nuclear Threat Initiative">Nuclear Threat Initiative</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">General</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ransomware" title="Ransomware">Ransomware</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cyberwarfare" title="Cyberwarfare">Cyberwarfare</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster" title="Disaster">Disaster</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_depression" title="Economic depression">Depression</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis" title="Financial crisis">Financial crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pandemic" title="Pandemic">Pandemic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Riot" title="Riot">Riots</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_crisis" title="Social crisis">Social crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Survivalism" title="Survivalism">Survivalism</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> 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