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href="/web/20240426140757/https://yle.fi/t/18-334977/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Venäjän hyökkäys" class="TagLinkstyles__TagLinkBase-sc-w5hh4y-0 doqXHU">Venäjän hyökkäys</a></div><h1 class="sc-beySPh kuTmyG yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--1">Länsi on pelokas eikä tiedä, miten haluaisi sodan päättyvän – ja siksi Ukraina on nyt pahassa paikassa</h1><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-5vja16 dvotnq YVZwc yle__article__paragraph">Voimasuhteet Ukrainassa ovat muuttuneet radikaalisti vuodessa. Venäjä on niskan päällä. Yhdysvaltojen valtava tukipaketti auttaa Ukrainaa rintamalla, mutta ei ratkaise sotaa.</p><figure class="aw-u5oz0a eiswpX yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20085261","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://schema.org","video":{"@type":"VideoObject","description":"Lännellä ei ole Ukrainan tukemisessa strategiaa, millaiseen lopputulokseen pyritään, sanoo Pasi Hirvonen, sotataidon laitoksen johtaja Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulusta.","name":"Sotilasasiantuntijan mielestä Ukrainan tukemisesta puuttuu strategia","thumbnailUrl":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-42973859c268d07fd2f","uploadDate":"2024-04-24T17:56:16+03:00"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic glCyMm"><div><div data-testid="video-player" class="aw-1kfkhk6 kfQeIY"></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 gwXnFP"><span>Lännellä ei ole Ukrainan tukemisessa strategiaa, millaiseen lopputulokseen pyritään, sanoo Pasi Hirvonen, sotataidon laitoksen johtaja Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulusta.</span></figcaption></figure><div class="aw-1wk2icm cLQuDx"><div class="aw-qww0lc bXDRBg"><div class="aw-x5rn7a cuuZMC"><span class="aw-z7z0zi jvmail">Maria Stenroos</span></div></div></div><div class="aw-1hwlbbb dUitsS"><div class="aw-kzjed4 hdUrXi yle__article__date"><time class="aw-lsqctp iTvOCQ yle__article__date--published" datetime="2024-04-25T06:00:39+03:00">25.4. 6:00</time><span aria-hidden="true" class="aw-131q90r hSduuB">•</span><time class="aw-lsqctp iTvOCQ yle__article__date--modified" datetime="2024-04-25T10:45:03+03:00">Päivitetty 25.4. 10:45</time></div></div></header><section class="yle__article__content"><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Länsi on luvannut tukea Ukrainaa pitkään, mutta Ukrainan puolustus on silti jatkuvissa vaikeuksissa. Lännen antama apu on ollut Ukrainan tarpeisiin nähden liian niukkaa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Miksi?</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Euroopalta puuttuu strategia, sanoo eversti <strong class="aw-ak79eh fyQnLO yle__article__strong">Pasi Hirvonen</strong>. Hän on sotataidon laitoksen johtajana Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulussa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Ei ole yhteistä käsitystä, mikä olisi näkemys sodan lopputuloksesta tai päämääristä.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Taustalla on monta syytä. Ne liittyvät sekä mahdollisuuksiin että tahtoon antaa aseita, sanovat Ylen haastattelemat asiantuntijat.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Yhdysvaltojen tuore aseapupaketti helpottaa tilannetta rintamalla, mutta ei asiantuntijoiden mielestä auta Ukrainaa voittoon.</p><h2 class="sc-guDLey kEXXRR yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Yhdysvaltojen tuki tasaa voimia rintamalla</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Yhdysvaltain noin 60 miljardin dollarin tuki vastaa akuuttiin hätään, joka Ukrainalla on ollut puolustuksessaan. Presidentti Joe Biden allekirjoitti lain keskiviikkona.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Yhdysvaltain tuella on mahdollista vakauttaa ja tasapainottaa tilanne rintamalla, sanoo Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Hirvonen.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Viime kuukausina Ukraina ei ole saanut länneltä riittävästi toivomiaan aseita.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Ukraina on ollut rintamalla selkeästi heikommassa asemassa Venäjään nähden ja voimasuhteet ovat muuttuneet aika radikaalisti vuoden kuluessa, sanoo kansainvälisen politiikan professori <strong class="aw-ak79eh fyQnLO yle__article__strong">Tuomas Forsberg</strong> Tampereen yliopistosta.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Isolla tukilastilla on valtava psykologinen merkitys. Ukrainan presidentti <strong class="aw-ak79eh fyQnLO yle__article__strong">Volodymyr Zelenskyi</strong> sanoi Yhdysvaltain kongressin päätöksen jälkeen, että tuen avulla Ukraina voittaa sodan.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Suomalaiset asiantuntijat ovat varovaisempia.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Yhdysvaltojen antamat aseet eivät riitä sodan voittamiseen, Forsberg sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Hirvonen on samalla kannalla. Yhdysvaltain apu ei todennäköisesti riitä siihen, että Ukraina pystyisi valloittamaan takaisin menettämiään alueita.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Ukraina tarvitsee pitkäkestoista apua, ja tässä Euroopan on ryhdistäydyttävä.</p><div class="aw-1dnbj3b iupSBO yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="c8d5f786-aa51-4db4-abd9-4f6db00deaf0" data-type="interactive" data-title="Baltian maat ovat tukeneet Ukrainaa suhteessa eniten, talouden kokoon nähden, Kielin instituutin tilastojen mukaan."></div> </div><h2 class="sc-guDLey kEXXRR yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Länneltä puuttuu ajatus, miten sodan pitäisi päättyä</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Vaikka sekä Euroopan unioni että Nato lupaavat Ukrainalle jäsenyyttä ja pitkäaikaista tukea, Ukraina ei ole saanut Euroopalta riittävästi aseita puolustautuakseen juuri nyt.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Päätökset luovutettavista aseista tulevat eri maista satunnaisessa aikataulussa, eikä kokonaisuus näytä olevan kenenkään hallinnassa, vaikka maat koordinoivat tukea Yhdysvaltain johdolla niin sanotussa Ramstein-kokoonpanossa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Ulkopoliittisen instituutin vanhempi tutkija <strong class="aw-ak79eh fyQnLO yle__article__strong">Iro Särkkä</strong> sanoo, että tukemisesta puuttuu iso linja, mihin tuella pyritään, eli strateginen visio.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– On tullut yksittäisiä apupaketteja yksi toisensa jälkeen, mutta siitä puuttuu se iso kuva, että mistä tuki koostuu. Samoin toimijuus, että kuka tätä luotsaa eteenpäin, Särkkä toteaa.</p><figure class="aw-u5oz0a OjLHE yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20085261","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://schema.org","video":{"@type":"VideoObject","description":"Tutkija Iro Särkän mielestä on vaikea nähdä, mikä on länsimaiden ”iso kuva” Ukrainan auttamisessa. ","name":"Nato-tutkija kaipaa Ukrainan tukemiseen johdonmukaisuutta","thumbnailUrl":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-42973859c268d07fd2f","uploadDate":"2024-04-24T18:17:06+03:00"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic glCyMm"><div><div data-testid="video-player" class="aw-1kfkhk6 kfQeIY"></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 gwXnFP"><span>Tutkija Iro Särkän mielestä on vaikea nähdä, mikä on länsimaiden ”iso kuva” Ukrainan auttamisessa. </span></figcaption></figure><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Sotilaan näkökulmasta tukea on vaikea suunnitella, jos ei tiedetä, mihin pyritään.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Euroopalta puuttuu strategia, mitä Ukrainan halutaan saavuttavan tässä sodassa, sanoo maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Hirvonen.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph"><a class="aw-iao6s4 fAvgdO yle__article__link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://yle.fi/a/74-20081940" role="link">Ukrainaa luvataan tukea niin pitkään kuin tarve on</a>, mutta samalla maat rajoittavat tukeaan, jotta sota ei kiihtyisi ja laajenisi eli eskaloituisi.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Ukrainan oma tavoite on vuoden 1991 rajat. Hirvosen mielestä Euroopalla ja Yhdysvalloilla pitäisi olla käsitys, halutaanko Ukrainaa tukea niin paljon, että se voi tavoittaa omat strategiset päämääränsä. Sitä ei kuitenkaan ole.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Lännen slogan on ollut, että tuetaan ”niin pitkään” kuin on tarpeen. Ei ”niin paljon” kuin on tarpeen, sanoo Tuomas Forsberg.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Forsbergin mielestä iskulause sisältää ajatuksen, että sotaan tulisi jokin käänne, ja Venäjä ymmärtäisi, ettei sekään voi voittaa sotaa.</p><h2 class="sc-guDLey kEXXRR yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Sodan laajenemisen pelko rajoittaa auttajia</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Miksi aseita sitten ei luovuteta niin paljon kuin Ukraina tarvitsisi?</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Ensimmäinen, keskeinen syy on ollut juuri eskalaation pelko: sodan ei haluta laajenevan. Esimerkiksi tehokkaiden aseiden luovuttamisen on pelätty johtavan Venäjän vastareaktioon. Venäjän uhkauksista huolimatta eskalaatiota ei kuitenkaan ole tapahtunut.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Toinen syy ovat varastot, joissa ei ole tavaraa. Joidenkin maiden varastot olivat jo valmiiksi niukat. Kylmän sodan jälkeen niiden oli annettu huveta.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Esimerkiksi Saksa ei ollut varautunut ammuksilla kuin muutaman päivän sodankäyntiin, Tuomas Forsberg muistuttaa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Osa maista – kuten Puola – on kertonut antaneensa jo sen mitä voi antaa pois.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Kolmas ongelma on tuotanto, sillä Eurooppa ei vieläkään ole saanut ammus- ja asetuotannon määrää merkittävästi nostettua. Ensin sen arvioitiin vievän pari vuotta, nyt arvio on vuosi-pari lisää.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Aseteollisuustuotannon käynnistäminen kestää. Syitä ovat muun muassa ajatus siitä, ettei aseita tarvita, sekä demokraattisen päätöksenteon byrokraattisuus.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Siinä ajassa, missä Venäjällä ammusten tuotanto on voitu nostaa pariin miljoonaan, Euroopassa puhutaan muutamien satojen tuhansien ammusten lisäyksestä, Forsberg vertaa.</p><div class="aw-1dnbj3b iupSBO yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="7229dd49-3a54-4366-94f8-4c28e506d0de" data-type="interactive" data-title="Näin sotilaallinen apu ja muu apu on kertynyt eri maista, Kielin instituutin mukaan."></div> </div><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Maat eivät uskalla luovuttaa varastoistaan aseita Ukrainalle, koska ei tiedetä, kuinka nopeasti ne saavat korvaavaa tavaraa tilalle.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Hirvosen mielestä varastot ovat käytännön ongelma, mutta suurempi ongelma on, että kaikki eivät suhtaudu sotaan samalla vakavuudella.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Särkän mielestä syyt ovat monessa maassa sisäpoliittisia tai taloudellisia. Mutta ne ovat myös ulkopoliittisia: millainen on maan suhde Venäjään, millainen riippuvuus on Venäjältä ostetusta energiasta, ja ovatko maat valmiita ylittämään niin sanottuja ”punaisia linjojaan” eli rikkomaan aiemmat käsityksensä ja toimintatapansa siitä, mitä Ukrainalle voidaan antaa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Lyhytaikaisen tuen kangertelu on Ukrainan rintamalle ongelma. Mutta pitkäaikainen tuki luo Ukrainalle uskoa, ja on viesti Venäjälle.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Ilman sitä tukea Venäjälle menisi viesti, että Venäjä voi toimia miten haluaa.</p><h2 class="sc-guDLey kEXXRR yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Mitä Ukraina saa ja mitä se tarvitsee?</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Yhdysvallat ei aikaile keskiviikkona lopullisesti hyväksytyn tuen toimittamisessa Ukrainaan. Ennakkoarvio on, että aseita ja ammuksia on jo varastoituna Eurooppaan ja ensimmäiset lähtevät kohti Ukrainaa heti.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph"><a class="aw-iao6s4 fAvgdO yle__article__link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3754238/biden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/" role="link">Yhdysvaltain puolustushallinnon mukaan</a> kiireellisin apu sisältää esimerkiksi ilmapuolustusohjuksia, Stinger-ilmatorjuntaohjuksia, erilaisia tykinammuksia, ammuksia Himars-järjestelmiin, panssarintorjuntaohjuksia ja erilaisia ajoneuvoja.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Yhdysvaltainkin tuki on ollut tiukassa. Päätös juuttui kuukausiksi kongressin, koska siitä tuli sisäpolitiikan väline.</p><figure class="aw-u5oz0a OjLHE yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20085261","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://schema.org","video":{"@type":"VideoObject","description":"Tällaisia ovat Yhdysvaltain Ukrainalle lupaamat ATACMS-ohjukset ja Patriot-järjestelmät, joita Ukraina haluaa lisää.","name":"Yhdysvallat on antamassa Ukrainalle ATACMS-ohjuksia","thumbnailUrl":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-42973859c268d07fd2f","uploadDate":"2024-04-22T16:56:25+03:00"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic glCyMm"><div><div data-testid="video-player" class="aw-1kfkhk6 kfQeIY"></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 gwXnFP"><span>Tällaisia ovat Yhdysvaltain Ukrainalle lupaamat ATACMS-ohjukset ja Patriot-järjestelmät, joita Ukraina haluaa lisää.</span></figcaption></figure><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Republikaaneissa on päättäjiä, joiden mielestä Yhdysvallat ei voi pitkään käyttää tällaisia summia Ukrainaan. Forsberg muistuttaa, että Afganistanin kriisinhallintaoperaatioon käytettiin kuitenkin valtavasti rahaa,<a class="aw-iao6s4 fAvgdO yle__article__link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47391821" role="link"> BBC:n mukaan</a> lopulta yli 800 miljardia dollaria.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">– Kyllähän sitäkin kyseenalaistettiin, ja lopulta se oli lopetettava. Mutta se kesti tosiaan parikymmentä vuotta ilman, että alkuvaiheessa rahan käyttäminen kaukaiseen maahan olisi ollut erityisen suuri ongelma.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Kipeimmin Ukraina tarvitsee lisää ilmatorjuntaa ja ammuksia.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Viime syksystä lähtien Venäjä on tuhonnut Ukrainan kriittisen tärkeitä kohteita kuten voimalaitoksia. Se on kertonut ilmatorjunnan vaikeuksista. Venäjällä on myös ollut käytettävissään Ukrainaan nähden kymmenkertainen määrä ammuksia.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Ilmatorjuntaan Ukrainan presidentti on pyytänyt länneltä Patriot-ilmatorjuntajärjestelmiä.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Näitä järjestelmiä Euroopan maat nyt etsiskelevät – toisiltaan. Saksa lupasi antaa yhden järjestelmän. Järjestelmiä on ainakin Ruotsilla, Hollannilla, Espanjalla ja Kreikalla, ja eri maiden poliitikot vetoavat, että näistä löytyisi annettavaa Ukrainaan.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr dvotnq kRlVjV yle__article__paragraph">Naton pääsihteeri Jens Stoltenberg lupaili viime viikonloppuna, että pian on ratkaisuja, joista kertoa.</p></section><footer class="yle__article__footer"><h2 class="aw-zh6d69 hdCyAB">Aiheesta enemmän: Paketissa 3 linkkiä</h2><h2 class="sc-dmyCSP iEtwyZ yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--3" aria-hidden="true">Aiheesta enemmän</h2><div class="yle__article__links" role="list" aria-label="Aiheesta enemmän"><div role="listitem" class="aw-124ec9l ccYNFu"><div class="aw-yq4wj5 kTECfb"><div class="aw-fou4nx eDDWtA"><div class="aw-aqrehu liOdKj"><div class="aw-ej1jxx dnbGnY"><a href="/web/20240426140757/https://yle.fi/t/18-334977/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Venäjän hyökkäys" class="TagLinkstyles__TagLinkBase-sc-w5hh4y-0 doqXHU">Venäjän hyökkäys</a></div><h3 class="aw-x9ikft gKAydi"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757/https://yle.fi/a/74-20010573" class="aw-3ocnud eJwoQw">Liettua sanoo, että se ei ole hyökännyt eikä hyökkäämässä mihinkään toiseen maahan</a></h3><time class="aw-4gocmc hhtIWQ">2022</time></div></div><div class="aw-vhyz8i jrvFbe"><div class="aw-8sjfvz ddkLIr"><div class="aw-1njknqq jaRXHA"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125793065f3e100e94e3 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125793065f3e100e94e3 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125793065f3e100e94e3 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125793065f3e100e94e3 1x"/><img alt="Ukrainalaiset sotilaat ampuivat tykistötulta Avdijivkan alueella Itä-Ukrainassa 13. maaliskuuta." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125793065f3e100e94e3" class="aw-1l9m598 kDMeTj"/></picture></div></div></div></div></div><div aria-hidden="true" class="aw-4s1vft wkZxU"><hr class="aw-mkek3u gpQkGw"/></div><div role="listitem" class="aw-124ec9l ccYNFu"><div class="aw-yq4wj5 kTECfb"><div class="aw-fou4nx eDDWtA"><div class="aw-aqrehu 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https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-12734986623451fc5c34 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-12734986623451fc5c34 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-12734986623451fc5c34 1x"/><img alt="Edustajainhuoneen puhemies Mike Johnson puhuu lehdistötilaisuudessa." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-12734986623451fc5c34" class="aw-1l9m598 kDMeTj"/></picture></div></div></div></div></div><div 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srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-1265908660d788fa042f 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-1265908660d788fa042f 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-1265908660d788fa042f 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240426140757im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-1265908660d788fa042f 1x"/><img alt="Elina Valtonen." 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Venäjä on niskan päällä. Yhdysvaltojen valtava tukipaketti auttaa Ukrainaa rintamalla, mutta ei ratkaise sotaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Länsi on luvannut tukea Ukrainaa pitkään, mutta Ukrainan puolustus on silti jatkuvissa vaikeuksissa. Lännen antama apu on ollut Ukrainan tarpeisiin nähden liian niukkaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Miksi?","type":"text"},{"text":"Euroopalta puuttuu strategia, sanoo eversti **Pasi Hirvonen**. Hän on sotataidon laitoksen johtajana Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulussa.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Ei ole yhteistä käsitystä, mikä olisi näkemys sodan lopputuloksesta tai päämääristä.","type":"text"},{"text":"Taustalla on monta syytä. Ne liittyvät sekä mahdollisuuksiin että tahtoon antaa aseita, sanovat Ylen haastattelemat asiantuntijat.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yhdysvaltojen tuore aseapupaketti helpottaa tilannetta rintamalla, mutta ei asiantuntijoiden mielestä auta Ukrainaa voittoon.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yhdysvaltojen tuki tasaa voimia rintamalla","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Yhdysvaltain noin 60 miljardin dollarin tuki vastaa akuuttiin hätään, joka Ukrainalla on ollut puolustuksessaan. Presidentti Joe Biden allekirjoitti lain keskiviikkona.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yhdysvaltain tuella on mahdollista vakauttaa ja tasapainottaa tilanne rintamalla, sanoo Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Hirvonen.","type":"text"},{"text":"Viime kuukausina Ukraina ei ole saanut länneltä riittävästi toivomiaan aseita.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Ukraina on ollut rintamalla selkeästi heikommassa asemassa Venäjään nähden ja voimasuhteet ovat muuttuneet aika radikaalisti vuoden kuluessa, sanoo kansainvälisen politiikan professori **Tuomas Forsberg** Tampereen yliopistosta.","type":"text"},{"text":"Isolla tukilastilla on valtava psykologinen merkitys. Ukrainan presidentti **Volodymyr Zelenskyi** sanoi Yhdysvaltain kongressin päätöksen jälkeen, että tuen avulla Ukraina voittaa sodan.","type":"text"},{"text":"Suomalaiset asiantuntijat ovat varovaisempia.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yhdysvaltojen antamat aseet eivät riitä sodan voittamiseen, Forsberg sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Hirvonen on samalla kannalla. Yhdysvaltain apu ei todennäköisesti riitä siihen, että Ukraina pystyisi valloittamaan takaisin menettämiään alueita.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Ukraina tarvitsee pitkäkestoista apua, ja tässä Euroopan on ryhdistäydyttävä.","type":"text"},{"alt":"Baltian maat ovat tukeneet Ukrainaa suhteessa eniten, talouden kokoon nähden, Kielin instituutin tilastojen mukaan.","infogramId":"c8d5f786-aa51-4db4-abd9-4f6db00deaf0","type":"infogram"},{"text":"Länneltä puuttuu ajatus, miten sodan pitäisi päättyä","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Vaikka sekä Euroopan unioni että Nato lupaavat Ukrainalle jäsenyyttä ja pitkäaikaista tukea, Ukraina ei ole saanut Euroopalta riittävästi aseita puolustautuakseen juuri nyt.","type":"text"},{"text":"Päätökset luovutettavista aseista tulevat eri maista satunnaisessa aikataulussa, eikä kokonaisuus näytä olevan kenenkään hallinnassa, vaikka maat koordinoivat tukea Yhdysvaltain johdolla niin sanotussa Ramstein-kokoonpanossa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ulkopoliittisen instituutin vanhempi tutkija **Iro Särkkä** sanoo, että tukemisesta puuttuu iso linja, mihin tuella pyritään, eli strateginen visio.","type":"text"},{"text":"– On tullut yksittäisiä apupaketteja yksi toisensa jälkeen, mutta siitä puuttuu se iso kuva, että mistä tuki koostuu. Samoin toimijuus, että kuka tätä luotsaa eteenpäin, Särkkä toteaa.","type":"text"},{"playbackBehaviour":"autoplay","caption":"Tutkija Iro Särkän mielestä on vaikea nähdä, mikä on länsimaiden ”iso kuva” Ukrainan auttamisessa. ","type":"video","id":"1-70519088","programResponse":{"series":{"title":{"main":{"swe":"Nyhetsvideor","fin":"Uutisvideot"}},"image":{"cover":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-1255967-1677743590609","version":1714136743}},"main":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-1255967-1684137541041","version":1714136743}}}},"publications":[{"tags":["archive"],"service":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"publisher":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"startTime":"2024-04-24T18:17:06+03:00","geoRestriction":"None","type":"Publication","id":"4-70519089","kind":"Ondemand","protectionLevel":{"key":"none","type":"ContentProtectionPolicy","id":"22-0"},"media":{"videoTrack":{"format":"HD","aspectRatio":"16:9","type":"VideoTrack","duration":"PT37S"},"captionTracks":[{"type":"CaptionTrack","language":"fin","kind":"hardOfHearing"}],"downloadable":false,"type":"Video","duration":"PT37S","audioTracks":[{"format":"stereo","type":"AudioTrack","duration":"PT37S","language":"fin"}],"id":"67-fd5b3ff43ad6429b8a2ec17c1b8d5e91","available":true}}],"title":{"main":{"fin":"Nato-tutkija kaipaa Ukrainan tukemiseen johdonmukaisuutta"}},"id":"1-70519088","image":{"main":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"39-12753386628e82e2a595","version":1713975630}}}}},{"text":"Sotilaan näkökulmasta tukea on vaikea suunnitella, jos ei tiedetä, mihin pyritään.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Euroopalta puuttuu strategia, mitä Ukrainan halutaan saavuttavan tässä sodassa, sanoo maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Hirvonen.","type":"text"},{"text":"[Ukrainaa luvataan tukea niin pitkään kuin tarve on](https:\u002F\u002Fyle.fi\u002Fa\u002F74-20081940), mutta samalla maat rajoittavat tukeaan, jotta sota ei kiihtyisi ja laajenisi eli eskaloituisi.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ukrainan oma tavoite on vuoden 1991 rajat. Hirvosen mielestä Euroopalla ja Yhdysvalloilla pitäisi olla käsitys, halutaanko Ukrainaa tukea niin paljon, että se voi tavoittaa omat strategiset päämääränsä. Sitä ei kuitenkaan ole.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Lännen slogan on ollut, että tuetaan ”niin pitkään” kuin on tarpeen. Ei ”niin paljon” kuin on tarpeen, sanoo Tuomas Forsberg.","type":"text"},{"text":"Forsbergin mielestä iskulause sisältää ajatuksen, että sotaan tulisi jokin käänne, ja Venäjä ymmärtäisi, ettei sekään voi voittaa sotaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Sodan laajenemisen pelko rajoittaa auttajia","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Miksi aseita sitten ei luovuteta niin paljon kuin Ukraina tarvitsisi?","type":"text"},{"text":"Ensimmäinen, keskeinen syy on ollut juuri eskalaation pelko: sodan ei haluta laajenevan. Esimerkiksi tehokkaiden aseiden luovuttamisen on pelätty johtavan Venäjän vastareaktioon. Venäjän uhkauksista huolimatta eskalaatiota ei kuitenkaan ole tapahtunut.","type":"text"},{"text":"Toinen syy ovat varastot, joissa ei ole tavaraa. Joidenkin maiden varastot olivat jo valmiiksi niukat. Kylmän sodan jälkeen niiden oli annettu huveta.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Esimerkiksi Saksa ei ollut varautunut ammuksilla kuin muutaman päivän sodankäyntiin, Tuomas Forsberg muistuttaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Osa maista – kuten Puola – on kertonut antaneensa jo sen mitä voi antaa pois.","type":"text"},{"text":"Kolmas ongelma on tuotanto, sillä Eurooppa ei vieläkään ole saanut ammus- ja asetuotannon määrää merkittävästi nostettua. Ensin sen arvioitiin vievän pari vuotta, nyt arvio on vuosi-pari lisää.","type":"text"},{"text":"Aseteollisuustuotannon käynnistäminen kestää. Syitä ovat muun muassa ajatus siitä, ettei aseita tarvita, sekä demokraattisen päätöksenteon byrokraattisuus.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Siinä ajassa, missä Venäjällä ammusten tuotanto on voitu nostaa pariin miljoonaan, Euroopassa puhutaan muutamien satojen tuhansien ammusten lisäyksestä, Forsberg vertaa.","type":"text"},{"alt":"Näin sotilaallinen apu ja muu apu on kertynyt eri maista, Kielin instituutin mukaan.","infogramId":"7229dd49-3a54-4366-94f8-4c28e506d0de","type":"infogram"},{"text":"Maat eivät uskalla luovuttaa varastoistaan aseita Ukrainalle, koska ei tiedetä, kuinka nopeasti ne saavat korvaavaa tavaraa tilalle.","type":"text"},{"text":"Hirvosen mielestä varastot ovat käytännön ongelma, mutta suurempi ongelma on, että kaikki eivät suhtaudu sotaan samalla vakavuudella.","type":"text"},{"text":"Särkän mielestä syyt ovat monessa maassa sisäpoliittisia tai taloudellisia. Mutta ne ovat myös ulkopoliittisia: millainen on maan suhde Venäjään, millainen riippuvuus on Venäjältä ostetusta energiasta, ja ovatko maat valmiita ylittämään niin sanottuja ”punaisia linjojaan” eli rikkomaan aiemmat käsityksensä ja toimintatapansa siitä, mitä Ukrainalle voidaan antaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Lyhytaikaisen tuen kangertelu on Ukrainan rintamalle ongelma. Mutta pitkäaikainen tuki luo Ukrainalle uskoa, ja on viesti Venäjälle.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Ilman sitä tukea Venäjälle menisi viesti, että Venäjä voi toimia miten haluaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Mitä Ukraina saa ja mitä se tarvitsee?","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Yhdysvallat ei aikaile keskiviikkona lopullisesti hyväksytyn tuen toimittamisessa Ukrainaan. Ennakkoarvio on, että aseita ja ammuksia on jo varastoituna Eurooppaan ja ensimmäiset lähtevät kohti Ukrainaa heti.","type":"text"},{"text":"[Yhdysvaltain puolustushallinnon mukaan](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.defense.gov\u002FNews\u002FReleases\u002FRelease\u002FArticle\u002F3754238\u002Fbiden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine\u002F) kiireellisin apu sisältää esimerkiksi ilmapuolustusohjuksia, Stinger-ilmatorjuntaohjuksia, erilaisia tykinammuksia, ammuksia Himars-järjestelmiin, panssarintorjuntaohjuksia ja erilaisia ajoneuvoja.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yhdysvaltainkin tuki on ollut tiukassa. Päätös juuttui kuukausiksi kongressin, koska siitä tuli sisäpolitiikan väline.","type":"text"},{"playbackBehaviour":"autoplay","caption":"Tällaisia ovat Yhdysvaltain Ukrainalle lupaamat ATACMS-ohjukset ja Patriot-järjestelmät, joita Ukraina haluaa lisää.","type":"video","id":"1-70450788","programResponse":{"series":{"title":{"main":{"swe":"Nyhetsvideor","fin":"Uutisvideot"}},"image":{"cover":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-1255967-1677743590609","version":1714136743}},"main":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-1255967-1684137541041","version":1714136743}}}},"publications":[{"tags":["archive"],"service":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"publisher":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"startTime":"2024-04-22T16:56:25+03:00","geoRestriction":"None","type":"Publication","id":"4-70450789","kind":"Ondemand","protectionLevel":{"key":"none","type":"ContentProtectionPolicy","id":"22-0"},"media":{"videoTrack":{"format":"HD","aspectRatio":"16:9","type":"VideoTrack","duration":"PT89S"},"captionTracks":[{"type":"CaptionTrack","language":"fin","kind":"hardOfHearing"}],"downloadable":false,"type":"Video","duration":"PT89S","id":"67-41be27922b024fa28111723adbcaa9d9","available":true}}],"title":{"main":{"fin":"Yhdysvallat on antamassa Ukrainalle ATACMS-ohjuksia"}},"id":"1-70450788","image":{"main":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-70450788-1713797348591","version":1713797353}}}}},{"text":"Republikaaneissa on päättäjiä, joiden mielestä Yhdysvallat ei voi pitkään käyttää tällaisia summia Ukrainaan. Forsberg muistuttaa, että Afganistanin kriisinhallintaoperaatioon käytettiin kuitenkin valtavasti rahaa,[ BBC:n mukaan](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bbc.com\u002Fnews\u002Fworld-47391821) lopulta yli 800 miljardia dollaria.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Kyllähän sitäkin kyseenalaistettiin, ja lopulta se oli lopetettava. Mutta se kesti tosiaan parikymmentä vuotta ilman, että alkuvaiheessa rahan käyttäminen kaukaiseen maahan olisi ollut erityisen suuri ongelma.","type":"text"},{"text":"Kipeimmin Ukraina tarvitsee lisää ilmatorjuntaa ja ammuksia.","type":"text"},{"text":"Viime syksystä lähtien Venäjä on tuhonnut Ukrainan kriittisen tärkeitä kohteita kuten voimalaitoksia. Se on kertonut ilmatorjunnan vaikeuksista. Venäjällä on myös ollut käytettävissään Ukrainaan nähden kymmenkertainen määrä ammuksia.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ilmatorjuntaan Ukrainan presidentti on pyytänyt länneltä Patriot-ilmatorjuntajärjestelmiä.","type":"text"},{"text":"Näitä järjestelmiä Euroopan maat nyt etsiskelevät – toisiltaan. Saksa lupasi antaa yhden järjestelmän. 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