Mysteel：华东地区热轧板卷节后预测-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷作为钢铁行业的关键产品，广泛应用于建筑、汽车、机械制造、家电等多个重要领域，在国民经济发展中扮演着不可或缺的角色。春节前后，作为全年经济活动的重要节点，其前后市场动态往往备受关注。华东地区，作为我国经济最为发达、工业基础雄厚且钢材消费与流通的核心区域之一，热轧板卷市场的表现不仅对当地产业发展影响深远，更是国内乃至全球钢铁市场的重要风向标。</p> <p>春节期间，受假期因素影响，市场交易活动通常会大幅减少，需求也随之进入相对低迷的阶段。但节后，随着各行业逐步复工复产，市场需求有望迎来复苏，供应端也将做出相应调整，这一系列变化将对热轧板卷的价格走势、库存水平以及市场供需格局产生深刻影响。深入分析和准确预测 2025 年华东地区热轧板卷春节节后市场动态，对于钢铁生产企业合理安排生产计划、贸易商制定科学的经营策略、下游企业有效控制采购成本，以及投资者把握市场投资机会等方面都具有极为重要的现实意义。</p> <h2><span style="font-size: 18px;">二、价格</span></h2> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 324.076px;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/28/7ea78c6dbaa64e79b29f2e3ca9a31784.png" width="600" height="324" /></p> <p>以上海热卷为例，近三年的价格一直都在走重心下移的趋势，热轧板卷价格在 2025 年春节后将呈现出复杂的波动态势，整体价格重心或较 2024 年继续下移，但考虑到宏观面的支撑，价格跌幅或较 2024 年收窄。</p> <p>在春节后的 1 - 2 月，热轧板卷价格预计将维持弱势运行。春节假期期间，下游用钢企业大多停工停产，市场需求处于季节性淡季。而钢厂方面，由于生产的连续性，在假期期间仍保持一定的产量，节后随着工人返岗，供应还将逐步上升。还好的是整个华东地区的库存基数较往年是偏低的，节后回来供应端的的压力要较往年会小不少。供需层面，需求的疲弱与供应的增加对价格形成同步压力，导致价格缺乏上涨动力。同时，原材料价格如果在这一时期保持稳定或略有下降，也将进一步削弱成本对热轧板卷价格的支撑。</p> <h2><span style="font-size: 18px;">三、供应</span></h2> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 359.856px;" src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/28/3dc9d85bbfae4025969122038a6d6f1f.png" width="600" height="360" /></p> <p>从春节期间的生产情况来看，部分钢厂为了维持生产的连续性以及考虑到订单交付等因素，仍会保持一定的生产水平。但相较于正常生产阶段，整体产量或有所下降。一些小<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>厂可能会选择在春节期间适当减产甚至停产，以降低生产成本和库存压力；而大型钢厂由于设备维护、工人排班等多方面因素的综合考量，虽保持生产，但产量也可能会低于节前水平。</p> <p>春节后，随着工人返岗，钢厂复产计划逐步推进。从 2025 年全年来看，新增产能的持续释放将使得供应端面临较大压力。在需求增长相对缓慢的情况下，供强需弱的格局或贯穿全年，市场竞争加剧，钢厂面临的销售压力增大，可能会通过价格竞争等方式争夺市场份额。</p> <h2><span style="font-size: 18px;">四、库存</span></h2> <ul> <li><img src="https://img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/28/1347511.png" /></li> </ul> <p>春节前，热轧板卷库存通常会呈现一定程度的积累。钢厂为了应对春节期间可能出现的物流运输不畅以及节后市场需求的复苏，会提前增加产量并储备一定库存。春节假期期间，由于下游企业停工停产，市场需求近乎停滞，而钢厂仍在持续生产，这使得库存进一步增加。从物流运输角度来看，春节期间，物流企业大多放假或减少运营班次，导致钢材运输效率大幅降低，钢厂生产出来的热轧板卷难以快速送达市场，进一步加剧了库存的积累。</p> <p>节后，随着时间推移，库存变化将呈现先增后减的趋势。在节后的 1 - 2 周内，库存仍会延续节前的增长态势。这是因为假期结束后，虽然下游企业开始陆续复工，但复工复产需要一定的时间来恢复到正常生产水平，需求的释放相对缓慢。而此时，钢厂的生产并未受到太大影响，前期积累的产品以及节后新生产的热轧板卷仍在不断流入市场，且前期因物流停滞而积压在途的货物也会在节后集中到货，导致库存继续上升。</p> <p>但随着下游企业复工复产的加速，市场需求逐步释放，库存将进入下降通道。建筑行业在天气转暖后，施工进度加快，对热轧板卷的需求大幅增加；机械制造、汽车制造等行业的生产活动也全面恢复，订单量增多，拉动了对热轧板卷的采购。在需求增长的同时，钢厂也会根据市场需求情况调整生产计划，若库存压力过大，钢厂可能会适当减产，以维持市场供需的相对平衡。在供需两端的共同作用下，库存水平逐渐下降，向一个相对合理的水平回归。</p> <h2><span style="font-size: 18px;">五、需求</span></h2> <h2><img src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/28/0476d71b9880427a84f0c27f691c3615.png" width="600" height="419" /></h2> <p>从工程机械行业的春节复工情况来看，多数企业的复工情况相较于去年相比出现了较大的不同，初八前或元宵节前复工比例明显减少，元宵节后复工增速较多。其中主要原因是由于订单数的影响，同时叠加年前货款回款不畅，导致的资金压力，从而使得复工时间延后。综合来看，整体的工程机械行业春节过后整体压力依旧不减。</p> <p><img src="https://img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/28/fd0047779aaa4a8992460d5f2e3294ba.png" width="600" height="382" /></p> <p>从汽车行业春节前后复工情况来看，今年相较于去年整体复工情况依旧出现了部分偏移，行业复工出现分化。订单数相对饱和的企业出现初八前复工的现象，初八到元宵节期间中旬企业有所缩减。而订单数较差的企业延后元宵节后复工的占比20%，这与往年较为不同的一点。 </p> <p><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/28/229a882691a44205894118d03c91ad11.png" width="600" height="352" /></p> <p>从家电行业的春节复工情况来看，企业的复工情况相较于去年相比略有延迟。初八前或元宵节前复工占比下滑，元宵节后企业复工数增多，整体家电的排产已提前推进，行业资源消耗在春节前为主，后期的排产压力减弱，开工进程相应宽松，但整体的用钢需求韧性尚存。</p> <p><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/28/f959f0b2ea0c4e38bc5e3c6a108c508f.png" width="600" height="372" /></p> <p>从钢结构行业的春节复工情况来看，企业的复工情况相较于去年相比略有延迟。初八前企业复工数增多，初八前或元宵节前复工比例占77%，元宵节后复工增速较大。其中主要原因是由于钢构行业投资表现不佳，项目工期开工推迟，工人返工延后，整体的钢构企业用钢需求表现偏弱。</p> <h2><span style="font-size: 18px;">六、宏观因素</span></h2> <p>从长期来看，宏观经济政策对热轧板卷市场的影响较为复杂。虽然宽松的货币政策在一定程度上可以刺激市场需求，但如果市场的基本面没有得到根本性改善，如供需失衡问题依然存在，需求增长的持续性不足等，那么政策的效果可能会逐渐减弱。随着新增产能的持续释放，市场供应不断增加，而需求增长如果无法跟上供应的步伐，供强需弱的格局仍将对热轧板卷价格形成长期的压制。货币政策的调整还可能引发通货膨胀等问题，如果物价上涨过快，将导致原材料成本上升，进一步压缩企业的利润空间，对热轧板卷市场产生不利影响。</p> <h2><span style="font-size: 18px;">七、综合分析</span></h2> <p>综上所述，2025 年华东地区热轧板卷市场各因素之间相互关联、相互影响，呈现出较为复杂的局面。从价格走势来看，全年价格重心或较 2024 年继续下移，但由于宏观面适度宽松货币政策的支撑，跌幅或收窄，整体呈现出先抑后扬再震荡的态势。</p> <p>供应方面，新增产能的持续释放使得供应不断增加，全年供应压力较大。库存变化则与供需密切相关，春节前后库存先增后减，在供需的动态平衡中寻求合理水平。</p> <p>需求层面，内需受房地产行业低迷影响，整体表现不足，虽家电与汽车行业有正向发展，但对市场成交带动有限；外需方面，出口受限，出口量下滑，进一步加剧了需求端的压力。</p> <p>宏观因素方面，适度宽松的货币政策在短期内对市场有提振作用，增强了资金流动性和市场信心，但长期来看，难以改变市场基本面供强需弱的格局。</p> <p>综合来看，2025 年华东地区热轧板卷市场供强需弱的总体格局较为明显。供应的持续增加与需求的相对不足形成鲜明对比，导致市场竞争激烈，价格面临较大下行压力。在这种市场格局下，企业需要密切关注市场动态，及时调整经营策略，以应对市场变化带来的挑战。</p> <p><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">八、结语</span></strong></p> <p>2025 年华东地区热轧板卷春节后市场，在价格、供应、库存、需求以及宏观因素等多方面因素交织影响下，呈现出复杂多变的态势。价格波动将贯穿全年，供应端因新增产能面临较大压力，库存变化受供需动态左右，需求层面内需不足与外需受限并存，宏观政策虽有短期提振但难以改变长期基本面格局。</p> <p>市场的复杂性和不确定性要求行业参与者保持敏锐的市场洞察力，密切关注各方面因素的动态变化。钢厂、贸易商以及行业协会等各方需协同合作，积极采取相应策略，以适应市场变化，实现可持续发展。在挑战与机遇并存的市场环境中，只有不断调整经营策略、加强创新与合作，才能在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地，推动华东地区热轧板卷行业朝着更加健康、稳定的方向发展。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：张伟华 021-26093763 </br> 资讯监督：张倚铭 021-66896544 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-10-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a 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