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工业硅四季度料先抑后扬-我的钢铁网
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<p>从成本端来看，经过上半年成本持续回落后，目前主要原料产品的价格有所企稳，且后续存在抬升预期。年初以来，伴随着成本端整体步入下行周期，部分工业硅原料价格也有所回落，硅煤价格、油焦价格以及电极价格均经历了不同程度的下跌。不过，近期原料价格企稳，伴随着成本端持续抬升，工业硅原料硅煤等价格均有所抬升，成本端后续具备走强预期，尤其是电力成本占总成本的比例接近30%，枯水期电价上调会在很大程度上影响生产成本。据统计，云南地区平均枯水期电价较丰水期上调0.12—0.15元/度，四川地区平均枯水期电价较丰水期上调0.17—0.18元/度，对应硅厂生产成本上移1700—2400元/吨。据此测算，枯水期西南地区完全成本线折盘面为14000—14500元/吨。</p> <p>因此，后续供给端主要的关注点在于西南地区开工以及北方工厂的复产进度。按照往年季节性变化规律，西南地区即将进入季节性的平水期和枯水期，当地硅厂开工预计将有所回落。不过，考虑到西南硅厂仍有较为丰厚的利润空间，预计枯水期整体开工回落幅度或不大。此外，市场较为关注北方工厂的复产进度，亦有市场传言预计将于10月底进行复产，同时有消息称将会延后至12月底进行复产。整体而言，四季度新增投产、复产以及减产一并进行，综合测算下来，2023年全年工业硅产量达418.5万吨，同比增速8.0%。</p> <p><strong>[整体消费有所抬升多晶硅提供主要的增量]</strong></p> <p>有机硅方面，政策利好持续出台，但有机硅“负利润+高库存”限制价格反弹空间。年初以来，地产板块承压以及出口持续回落拖累有机硅消费。9月中旬，DMC价格大幅上涨，一方面是由于有机硅下游补库需求拉动，或为国庆节前的补库操作；另一方面是近期工业硅原料成本持续抬升。8月以来，国内地产端利好政策频繁出台，但从高频购房数据来看，整体终端市场仍需继续恢复，预计后续地产销售端有所提振，从而带动有机硅消费缓慢修复。</p> <p>通过对有机硅行业的历史复盘，可以看出有机硅过剩格局彻底修复仍有待时日。2020年下半年，受海外有机硅厂减产等因素的影响，DMC供给短缺推升报价。进入2021年，需求复苏使得有机硅价格维持高位，从而构筑出持续了一年多的高利润格局，如此丰厚的利润驱使新增产能入局。考虑到有机硅新增项目有1.5—2年的建设周期，自2022年5月开始供给端放量，整体行业步入供给过剩格局。当下，DMC报价前期有所提升，但多数有机硅企业利润仍低位，且持续偏高的工业硅价格加重成本负担，叠加高位库存压力，有机硅目前对工业硅采购仍维持刚需态势，整体修复过程仍漫长。据测算，2023年全年有机硅单体产量约为173.6万吨，同比增加1.7%。</p> <p>从多晶硅方面来看，组件端负反馈逐步兑现，硅料价格近期有所回落。与前几年供给决定需求的逻辑不同，光伏行业在2022年下半年硅料供给放量之后，行业发展主逻辑转为“需求导向型”，整体利润格局表现为由上游往下游进行传导。受益于原料成本的回落，终端装机表现持续亮眼，1—8月全国光伏累计新增装机113.16GW，同比增速达154%。</p> <p>8—9月，伴随着硅料端库存去化，叠加硅片稼动率抬升以及硅片新增产能投放，硅料价格企稳反弹，从而增加对工业硅的采购体量。目前来看，在前期硅厂报价持续上调过程中，硅料和硅粉厂采购端呈现较为明显的“买涨不买跌”采购模式，目前已备有一定的原料库存。不过，当前虽然市场中低磷、硼等工业硅短缺现象明显，但硅料端的补库需求已告一段落，近期对工业硅采购维持观望态势。预计后续随着多晶硅新增产能释放，采购需求仍有进一步增加的可能，但硅料价格下跌亦带来了相应的不确定性。根据投产规划，今年三季度、四季度多晶硅新增产能投放较为集中，相应测算2023年全年多晶硅产量约149万吨，同比增速达85%。</p> <p>从<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>合金及出口方面来看，笔者认为，在弱势格局下，难言有较大的消费增量。上半年，铝合金板块与出口领域均维持着偏弱的消费状态，四季度预计整体消费体量变化不大。就铝合金而言，再生以及原生铝合金周度开工率均保持同期偏低水平，铝合金板块在前期原料备货后，对工业硅保持刚需采购态势。目前，铝合金厂已备有一定的原料库存，对工业硅采购维持观望态势。就出口而言，1—8月工业硅累计出口量33.6万吨，同比减少18.6%。考虑到出口最终目的地为欧洲、日本、韩国、美国等，海外欧美地区经济体缓慢修复，预计后续工业硅出口体量变化不大。</p> <p>整体而言，下半年工业硅需求相较上半年有所增加。其中，多晶硅将提供主要的消费增量。测算可得，2023年工业硅消费体量约为441.9万吨，同比增加24%。</p> <p><strong>[供需呈紧平衡态势关注北方工厂复产进度]</strong></p> <p>从库存角度来看，整体行业库存水平仍处在高位，但上下游库存均处于中低水平，主要库存集中在交割库中，致使现货流通性趋紧。就供需层面而言，全国工业硅供应处于同期高位，西南地区呈现满开状态，且即将进入平枯水期，新疆地区工厂复产缓慢，四季度供给端增减相抵或依旧处于高位。从下游来看，整体维持刚需采购，以观望态势为主，后续多晶硅新增产能投产也会带动消费端好转，但多晶硅价格回落会对消费增量构成影响。此外，硅厂成本端抬升预期或对价格构成一定的底部支撑。整体来看，四季度工业硅供需呈现紧平衡态势，重点关注北方工厂的复产进度。</p> <p>对应盘面来看，工业硅价格上方受制于高位库存压力，下方枯水期成本抬升逻辑正逐步兑现，盘面自9月底开始下跌至今，或已接近短期底部，目前处于振荡摸底格局。展望后市，经过本轮下跌后，若高位库存逐步被下游企业消化，硅价将具备较好的上行动能。（作者单位：国泰君安期货）</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> 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