Why Syria is more relevant today than before

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Aleppo following an assault led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is internationally sanctioned as a terrorist group, it is important to pause and recall that we have been here before.", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "representativeOfPage": "True", "url": "/sites/default/files/images-story/A%20rebel%20fighter%20carries%20a%20weapon%20as%20he%20stands%20at%20the%20entrance%20of%20Saraqeb%20town%20in%20northwestern%20Idlib%20province%2C%20Syria%20December%201%2C%202024.%20REUTERS.jpg", "width": "1920", "height": "1080" }, "datePublished": "2024-12-03T16:32:18+0000", "dateModified": "2024-12-05T11:19:33+0000", "author": { "@type": "Person", "@id": "Middle East Eye", "name": "Kamal Alam", "url": "https://www.middleeasteye.net/users/kamal-alam" } } ] }</script> <link rel="icon" href="/sites/default/files/MEE%20Purple.png" type="image/png" /> <link rel="alternate" hreflang="en" href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/syria-more-relevant-today-ever-why" /> <title>Why Syria is more 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class="field field-title">Why Syria is more relevant today than before</span> </h1> </div> <div class="author-field author-info author-picture"> <a href="/users/kamal-alam"> <div class="field field-user-picture"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/author_thumbnail/public/pictures/picture-9095-1499331629.jpg.webp?itok=6JaLCO02" width="100" height="100" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /> </div> </a> <div class="author-name"> <a title="View user profile." href="/users/kamal-alam" lang="" about="/users/kamal-alam" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Kamal Alam</a> </div> </div> <div class="submitted-date"> <span class="date-created">Published date:</span> 5 December 2024 09:50 GMT <span class="date-separator">| </span> <span class="date-updated">Last update:</span> <span id="date-updatedago" data-timeago="1733397573">5 days 23 hours</span> ago </div> <div class="field field-field-subhead">Facing a surprise attack on Aleppo by opposition groups, Damascus is in a position of strength after years of rebuilding regional ties</div> <div class="field field-field-main-image"> <picture> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/article_page/public/images-story/A%20rebel%20fighter%20carries%20a%20weapon%20as%20he%20stands%20at%20the%20entrance%20of%20Saraqeb%20town%20in%20northwestern%20Idlib%20province%2C%20Syria%20December%201%2C%202024.%20REUTERS.jpg.webp?itok=NVdZ7LBZ 1x" type="image/webp" width="1400" height="788"/> <img loading="lazy" srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/article_page/public/images-story/A%20rebel%20fighter%20carries%20a%20weapon%20as%20he%20stands%20at%20the%20entrance%20of%20Saraqeb%20town%20in%20northwestern%20Idlib%20province%2C%20Syria%20December%201%2C%202024.%20REUTERS.jpg.webp?itok=NVdZ7LBZ 1x" width="1400" height="788" src="/sites/default/files/styles/max_2600x2600/public/images-story/A%20rebel%20fighter%20carries%20a%20weapon%20as%20he%20stands%20at%20the%20entrance%20of%20Saraqeb%20town%20in%20northwestern%20Idlib%20province%2C%20Syria%20December%201%2C%202024.%20REUTERS.jpg.jpg?itok=NQp3ymx5" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /> </picture> </div> <div class="field field-field-cutline">A rebel fighter carries a weapon as he stands at the entrance of Saraqeb town in northwestern Idlib province, Syria on 1 December 2024 (Reuters)</div> </div> <section class="page-main-content"> <a href="#main-content" aria-label="Main content" id="main-content" class="visually-hidden" tabindex="-1"></a> <div class="region region-content"> <section id="block-meesocialshare" class="block block-mee-social-share block-mee-social-share-block clearfix"> <div class="mee-social-share-block"> <div class="sharethis-inline-share-buttons"></div> </div> </section> <article data-history-node-id="414896" about="/opinion/syria-more-relevant-today-ever-why" class="opinion full article-type clearfix"> <div class="field field-body clearfix"><p>Amid the swift and stunning <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/11/30/syrian-rebels-sweep-into-aleppo-in-an-embarrassing-rout-for-bashar-al-assad">collapse</a> of Aleppo following an assault led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is internationally sanctioned as a <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2018/sc13365.doc.htm">terrorist group</a>, it is important to pause and recall that we have been here before.</p> <p>The advance by HTS and <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/views/2024/11/30/as-lebanon-s-battlefield-closes-syria-s-reignites-why-is-turkey-opening-aleppo-front-now">Turkish</a>-backed rebels in <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/syria">Syria</a> suggests that <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/turkey">Turkey</a> is playing its cards before <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/us">US</a> president-elect Donald Trump takes office, driven by its existential fear of a Kurdish enclave in northern Syria. </p> <p>Turkey had been frustrated with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's repeated refusal to come to the negotiating table and meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, although both Syrian and Turkish defence and intelligence chiefs have met regularly in Russia.</p> <p>Al-Assad has been negotiating through his ministers while relying on the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia for the diplomatic push.</p> <p>Yet, while the finger of blame has been pointed at Turkey, the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/israel">Israel</a> factor cannot be discounted.</p> <div style="display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; background-color: transparent; padding: 0; max-width: 100%; margin: 0 auto; box-sizing: border-box; border: 4px dashed #522F71; border-radius: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 23px;"> <div style="flex: 1; text-align: center;"> <h2 style="font-family: Calluna, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: calc(14px + 1vw); color: #000; margin: 0; padding-top: 10px;">New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch</h2> <h4 style="font-family: Calluna, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: calc(10px + 0.5vw); color: #000; margin: 0; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 5px; text-align: center;"> <span style="white-space: normal;"> Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on </span>Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters</h4> <form action="https://middleeasteye.us21.list-manage.com/subscribe/post?u=b5bdd0873541363c88d50e5cb&id=e9fb079abb&f_id=00a3a3e1f0" method="POST" style="display: flex; margin-top: 1vw; justify-content: center;" data-once="form-updated" data-drupal-form-fields> <input name="EMAIL" placeholder="Your email" required style="border: 1px solid #ccc; border-radius: 0; font-size: 16px; outline: none; flex: 1; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 51.5%; height: 50px;" type="email"> <div hidden="true"><input type="hidden" name="tags" value="442256"></div> <input style="padding: 10px; background-color: #512F70; color: #fff; cursor: pointer; font-size: 16px; border: none; border-radius: 0; outline: none; width: 25%; text-align: center; height: 50px;" type="submit" value="Subscribe"> </form> </div> </div> <style> type="text/css" /*<![CDATA[*/ @media screen and(max-width: 767px) { h4 span { white-space: normal; } h4 br { display: none; } input[type="email"] { font-size: calc(10px + 0.25vw); padding: 0.75vw; border-radius: 0; height: 25px; } input[type="submit"] { font-size: calc(10px + 0.25vw); padding: 0.75vw 1vw 0.75vw 0.75vw; max-width: 30% !important; margin-top: 0.5vw; height: 25px; } h4 { padding-top: 10px; } h2, h4 { text-align: left !important; padding-left: 30px !important; } form { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; justify-content: center; align-items: center; } input[type="email"] { flex: 2; margin-right: 0; max-width: 52.5% !important; } input[type="submit"] { width: 32.5% !important; margin-top: 0; margin-left: 0; margin-right: 0; height: 40px; } } @media screen and(min-width: 768px) { input[type="email"] { font-size: 16px; padding: 10px; max-width: 52.5% !important; border-radius: 0; height: 40px; } input[type="submit"] { font-size: 16px; padding: 10px 15px 10px 10px; border-radius: 0; max-width: 52.5% !important; height: 40px; } } /*]]>*/ </style> <p>Just days before the fall of Aleppo, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-warns-syria-of-direct-price-to-pay-if-it-helps-hezbollah-rearm/">threatened</a> Syria against facilitating aid to Hezbollah - and it is no coincidence that this crisis began shortly after the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/lebanon">Lebanon</a> ceasefire was finalised. </p> <p>It was almost timed perfectly to suggest that there has been some sort of nod to the armed groups in Idlib. Some Syrian opposition groups have <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-opposition-leader-says-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-opened-door-to-assault-on-aleppo/&source=gmail&ust=1733402071138000&usg=AOvVaw2UmEnev2II1cBR59q4zSz9" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-opposition-leader-says-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-opened-door-to-assault-on-aleppo/" target="_blank" title="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-opposition-leader-says-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-opened-door-to-assault-on-aleppo/">acknowledged</a><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-opposition-leader-says-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-opened-door-to-assault-on-aleppo/&source=gmail&ust=1733402071138000&usg=AOvVaw2UmEnev2II1cBR59q4zSz9" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-opposition-leader-says-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-opened-door-to-assault-on-aleppo/" target="_blank" title="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-opposition-leader-says-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-opened-door-to-assault-on-aleppo/"> </a>that Israel's ceasefire helped them. Turkish-backed groups went so far as to <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-rebels-appear-to-credit-israeli-strikes-on-hezbollah-with-aiding-shock-advance/">thank Israel and</a><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-rebels-appear-to-credit-israeli-strikes-on-hezbollah-with-aiding-shock-advance/&source=gmail&ust=1733402071138000&usg=AOvVaw25ZHkspj-tRJARO9vb76ny" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-rebels-appear-to-credit-israeli-strikes-on-hezbollah-with-aiding-shock-advance/" id="m_-4361108225664457466LPlnk231802" target="_blank" title="https://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-rebels-appear-to-credit-israeli-strikes-on-hezbollah-with-aiding-shock-advance/"> further </a>said they want good relations with Tel Aviv.</p> <h3>A key difference</h3> <p>But while <a href="https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1862928712729326078">many</a> observers assert that Assad is on the ropes, his main backers, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/russia">Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/iran">Iran</a>, are already flexing their <a href="https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/assad-vows-to-crush-syrian-rebels-as-russians-bomb-aleppo-jlshl9fk2">military</a> and <a href="https://en.mfa.ir/portal/NewsView/757552">diplomatic</a> muscle - and unlike the previous time Assad was in trouble in 2012, <a href="https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-831454">major players</a> in the region, including <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/saudi-arabia">Saudi Arabia</a>, the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/united-arab-emirates">UAE</a>, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/jordan">Jordan</a> and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/iraq">Iraq</a>, are publicly backing Syria’s sovereignty. Iraq <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-12-03/iraq-will-not-be-just-a-spectator-in-syria-prime-minister-says">said</a> it shall help Syria militarily as well. </p> <p>With the exception of <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/qatar">Qatar</a>, all Arab ambassadors are back in Damascus - and since the fall of Aleppo, there has been a reaffirmation of support for Syria, marking a key difference from when the conflict was viewed as a civil war. </p> <hr> <p><a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/live/live-israel-gaza-war-block-aid-ceasefire-hamas"><b><i>Follow Middle East Eye's live coverage of the Israel-Palestine war</i></b></a></p> <hr> <p>Indeed, as Aleppo was falling, the UAE and US were on the verge of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uae-discussed-lifting-assad-sanctions-exchange-break-with-iran-sources-say-2024-12-02/">potentially</a> removing sanctions on Syria. Assad must now finally take their advice on rapprochement with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before the situation spirals out of control. </p> <p>There has been much talk of increased tensions in the occupied Golan Heights, with Israel <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpwrvw7x8j9o">violating</a> the 1973 buffer zone as it ordered some army units to move out of the demarcated UN line since 1973, almost as if they anticipated trouble to create a buffer zone like in Lebanon along the Litani river.</p> <blockquote> <p>Amid the reordering of Lebanon, one thing that has stood the test of time is Syria's ability to remain relevant, despite all the damage it has incurred</p> </blockquote> <p>At the same time, there has been a quiet flurry of diplomatic activity in recent months, from the <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/07/31/italy-returns-to-damascus-twelve-years-after-its-last-ambassador-s-departure_6705551_4.html">Italians</a> to <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240910-saudi-arabia-reopens-embassy-in-syria-completing-reconciliation-with-assad-regime/">the Saudis</a>, placing Assad centre-stage for a potential new shakeup in the Levant. </p> <p>A number of <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/eus-syria-policy-shifts-amid-calls-to-increase-deportation/a-70003785">EU</a> countries, led by <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-migration-deportation-syria-bashar-assad-refugees-italy-giorgia-meloni-far-right-anti-immigrant-parties/">Italy,</a> are calling for a major rethink of ties with Syria, spurred by the need to engage Assad for their own migration and security issues. Erdogan is <a href="https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2024/10/erdogan-asks-putin-to-encourage-al-assad-to-normalize-relations-with-turkey/">almost begging</a> Assad for a meeting, and with the UAE <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241007-uae-delivers-30m-in-humanitarian-aid-to-those-who-fled-from-lebanon-to-syria/">already increasing</a> aid to Syria to help displaced Lebanese people, Damascus is set to regain a key role in the region after the dust settles in Beirut and <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/israel-war-gaza">Gaza</a>.</p> <p>Syria has carefully maintained <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://newlinesmag.com/argument/syria-assad-plan-to-keep-out-of-the-war-in-gaza/&source=gmail&ust=1733415917515000&usg=AOvVaw0A2eqDsV-B4ato7TcwoQVH" href="https://newlinesmag.com/argument/syria-assad-plan-to-keep-out-of-the-war-in-gaza/" id="m_462946457351793928OWAb7aad87c-7112-0c63-56a5-c359b28f3aea" target="_blank">a low</a> profile during Israel's genocidal war on Gaza. Whilst being a key member of <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/middle-east-axis-resistance-shaping-how">the axis of resistance</a> for the last 40 years, Syria has not been averse to talking or doing deals with Israel. It has at numerous <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/may/21/israelandthepalestinians.syria&source=gmail&ust=1733415917515000&usg=AOvVaw1jSXiloTHn-nqH0yKzH6MQ" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/may/21/israelandthepalestinians.syria" target="_blank" title="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/may/21/israelandthepalestinians.syria">times</a><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/may/21/israelandthepalestinians.syria&source=gmail&ust=1733415917515000&usg=AOvVaw1jSXiloTHn-nqH0yKzH6MQ" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/may/21/israelandthepalestinians.syria" target="_blank" title="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/may/21/israelandthepalestinians.syria"> </a>almost solved the issue of Golan, so it knows the balance.</p> <p>US President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-massad-boulos-will-serve-adviser-arab-middle-eastern-affairs-2024-12-01/">new Arab envoy</a>, Massad Boulos, is a political <a href="https://x.com/KatiePhang/status/1863372823177085086">ally of</a> Assad’s best friend in Lebanon, Suleiman Frangieh, who is one of the key candidates for the presidency.</p> <p>Those who know the history of Lebanon and the <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/palestine">Palestine</a> Liberation Organisation (PLO) will know just how critical Syria is to the delicate balance of the region’s unorthodox relationships, which are not quite as black and white as they seem. Everything is not simply what faraway DC analysts label as “Shia versus Sunni”. </p> <div class="mee-readmore mee-readmore-article-story mee-readmore-type-image align-right"> <a class="mee-readmore-img-link" href="/news/aleppos-kurds-fear-displacement-thousands-flee-rebels-tel-rifaat"><img class="mee-readmore-image" src="/sites/default/files/styles/read_more/public/images-story/kurdish%20syrian%20man%20tabqa%20tel%20rifaat%20afp.jpg.webp?itok=xO4uAs9i" width="400" height="250" alt loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image"> </a> <div class="mee-readmore-description">Syria: Aleppo's Kurds fear displacement as thousands flee rebels in Tel Rifaat</div> <a class="mee-readmore-link" href="/news/aleppos-kurds-fear-displacement-thousands-flee-rebels-tel-rifaat">Read More »</a> </div> <p>A recent <a href="https://www.majalla.com/node/322708/%D9%88%D8%AB%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%82-%D9%88%D9%85%D8%B0%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88-%D9%86%D8%B6%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B0%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D9%88%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%A4%D8%B3%D8%B3-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%85%D8%B8%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-1-%D9%85%D9%86-8?fbclid=IwY2xjawGMKZxleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHZiRic_2aGpXa6cfnJ5nXjaKLaorJ6QgP1nd_2Og_bzO4tKXLmwS_u_LgQ_aem_BcWiLfQ-MGhzc5AYH0jqlQ">report</a> outlines how, in the lead-up to Iran’s 1979 revolution, Syria refused safe passage to Iran’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to avoid further antagonising Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Prominent Syrian journalist Ibrahim Hamidi goes further in <a href="https://www.majalla.com/node/322708/%D9%88%D8%AB%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%82-%D9%88%D9%85%D8%B0%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88-%D9%86%D8%B6%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B0%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D9%88%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%A4%D8%B3%D8%B3-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%85%D8%B8%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-1-%D9%85%D9%86-8?fbclid=IwY2xjawGMKZxleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHZiRic_2aGpXa6cfnJ5nXjaKLaorJ6QgP1nd_2Og_bzO4tKXLmwS_u_LgQ_aem_BcWiLfQ-MGhzc5AYH0jqlQ">explaining</a> the nuances of what Syria was trying to achieve in Lebanon and Palestine, as Syrian troops and allies sometimes clashed with Hezbollah to protect their own interests. </p> <p>But the Israelis know that for any final <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eDVMfbZ1jU">peace</a> with the Palestinian people, there must first be an understanding with Damascus.</p> <p>Similarly, Hamas’s recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-restore-syria-ties-after-10-years-dispute-sources-say-2022-06-21/">U-turn on its</a> relationship with Syria - alongside Israeli <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-acknowledges-long-claimed-weapons-supply-to-syrian-rebels/">support</a> for Syrian armed groups against Assad, and Tel Aviv’s now-<a href="https://x.com/AlawiteLeague/status/1623297338914619392">famous</a> contention that there would have been no Syrian uprising “if Assad made peace with us” - show how intricately linked the Palestinian file is to Syria’s endgame for Israel. </p> <p>To be clear, Syria is under no illusions: half the country has been reduced to rubble. But its strength has never been an all-out powerful military or strategic arms advantage. It is what author David Lesch has <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt5vkx9m">called</a> Syria’s ability to punch above its weight.</p> <p>It is Syria’s ability to outlast its opponents and ride out the storm, rather than beating its opponents into submission. Assad, despite Israel’s frequent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strike-near-damascus-killed-hezbollah-liaison-with-syrian-army-security-2024-12-03/">strikes</a> on Iranian targets in Damascus, has not taken any retaliatory actions that could further raise Israel’s ire.</p> <h3>Pivot from Iran to Gulf</h3> <p>Similarly, according to Hamidi, who is one of the well-informed Syrian journalists, Syria has <a href="https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5073554-damascus-and-moscow-intensify-efforts-avoid-conflict-israel-syria">clamped down</a> on the activities of Hezbollah and Iran-affiliated militias in the country, with Russian help - leading some analysts to <a href="https://en.majalla.com/node/322726/opinion/after-45-years-syrian-regime-finally-breaking-iran">question</a> the viability of Iran-Syria ties. </p> <p>While Iran is not quitting Syria, Damascus has other options, as the UAE and Saudi Arabia are <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241007-uae-delivers-30m-in-humanitarian-aid-to-those-who-fled-from-lebanon-to-syria/">helping Syria</a> with the influx of Lebanese refugees, and the EU <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-migration-deportation-syria-bashar-assad-refugees-italy-giorgia-meloni-far-right-anti-immigrant-parties/">views</a> strengthened ties with Damascus as a potential way to mitigate its own migration problems.</p> <blockquote> <p>While Syria depends on Russia and Iran militarily, its global diplomatic support has increased, from Italy, to Saudi Arabia, to China</p> </blockquote> <p>Perhaps the most important element of Assad’s pivotal role in the current mess is Erdogan’s eagerness to meet him. Assad has so far rejected these overtures, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/25/syrias-al-assad-says-turkey-rapprochement-efforts-unsuccessful">saying it would not be</a> an easy path to reconciliation with Turkey. Erdogan, however, has been <a href="https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2024/10/erdogan-asks-putin-to-encourage-al-assad-to-normalize-relations-with-turkey/">pleading</a> with Russia to bring Syria to the table. This rejection appears to have prompted Turkish-backed groups to reshuffle the cards in northern Aleppo. </p> <p>The big “so what” from all of this is that even in Syria’s diminished capacity, after more than a decade of war, almost every month we are seeing more ambassadors and global leaders return to Damascus. </p> <p>They see Assad as the best option not just for Syria, but also to help both the Syrian and Lebanese refugees -who fled Lebanon during the recent war - and to resolve the deadlock of the Lebanese presidency. More than a year ago, <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/12/sleiman-frangieh-france-s-controversial-candidate-for-lebanese-president_6026436_4.html">France acquiesced</a> to a plan to push Assad’s best friend, Frangieh, as the best candidate for president in Lebanon, against the wishes of other European allies. </p> <p>Amid the reordering of Lebanon, one thing that has stood the test of time is Syria’s ability to remain relevant, despite all the damage it has incurred. While Syria depends on Russia and Iran militarily, its global diplomatic support has increased, from Italy, to Saudi Arabia, to <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/china">China</a> - and this will eventually decide the future of Syria, and the region. </p> <p><i>The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.</i></p> </div> <div class="author-bio"> <div class="author-bio-title"> </div> <div class="author-bio-content">Kamal Alam specialises in contemporary military history of the Middle East. He was a Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute from 2015 to 2019. Currently, he is a Fellow at The Institute for Statecraft and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and he lectures at several military staff colleges across the Middle East.</div> </div> <blockquote class="disclaimer">Middle East Eye delivers independent and unrivalled coverage and analysis of the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. To learn more about republishing this content and the associated fees, please fill out this <u><a href="https://middleeasteye.net/form/mee-syndication"><span style="color:#3498db">form</span></a></u>. More about MEE can be found <u><a href="https://middleeasteye.net/about-middle-east-eye"><span style="color:#3498db">here</span></a></u>.</blockquote> </article> </div> </section> <aside role="complementary" class="sidebar-second"> <div class="region region-sidebar-second"> <section id="block-managedad-2" class="block block-adsense block-adsense-managed-ad-block clearfix"> <div class="text-align-center"> <div class="adsense" style="width:300px;height:250px;"> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6114695881218027" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>  <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:inline-block;width:300px;height:250px" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6114695881218027" data-ad-slot="9954860777"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </div> </div> </section> <section id="block-recommendedarticles" class="block block-mee-custom block-recommended clearfix"> <h3 class="block-title">Recommended</h3> 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