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The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is a respite, not a wider solution
<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en-GB"><head><meta charSet="utf-8"/><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width"/><title>The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is a respite, not a wider solution</title><meta property="og:title" content="The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is a respite, not a wider solution"/><meta name="twitter:title" content="The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is a respite, not a wider solution"/><meta name="description" content="What the latest developments mean for Iran's position - and for the prospect of peace in Gaza"/><meta property="og:description" content="What the latest developments mean for Iran's position - and for the prospect of peace in Gaza"/><meta name="twitter:description" content="What the latest developments mean for Iran's position - and for the prospect of peace in Gaza"/><meta property="og:image" content="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/branded_news/b1b1/live/a4aa8640-ace2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png"/><meta name="twitter:image:src" content="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/branded_news/b1b1/live/a4aa8640-ace2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png"/><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta property="og:image:alt" content="Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike. The writer, Jeremy Bowen, is in a different image to the side wearing a press vest"/><meta name="twitter:image:alt" content="Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike. 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dlWCEZ"><div data-testid="byline-new" class="sc-b42e7a8f-0 haItSe"><div class="sc-b42e7a8f-1 cjDa-dM"><time dateTime="2024-11-27T19:50:47.735Z" class="sc-b42e7a8f-2 bGezbH">27 November 2024</time><div class="sc-b42e7a8f-3 cFXrjb"><!--$!--><!--/$--></div></div><div data-testid="byline-new-contributors" class="sc-b42e7a8f-12 fcCDwR"><div class="sc-b42e7a8f-5 evAEAB"><div class="sc-b42e7a8f-6 boFwIm"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="96vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png.webp" alt="Jeremy Bowen profile image" class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/></div><div><span class="sc-b42e7a8f-7 khDNZq">Jeremy Bowen</span><div class="sc-b42e7a8f-8 jtKrhe"><span>International Editor<!-- --><span class="sc-b42e7a8f-9 dTsdib">•</span><a href="https://twitter.com/BowenBBC" target="_blank" class="sc-b42e7a8f-10 cSeenu">@BowenBBC</a></span></div></div></div></div><div class="sc-b42e7a8f-4 cVwCpL"><!--$!--><!--/$--></div></div></div><figure><div data-component="image-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 EXUng"><div data-testid="hero-image" class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp" alt="BBC Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs " class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/><span class="sc-a34861b-2 fxQYxK">BBC</span></div></div></figure><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><ul class="sc-5c9c90b0-0 cnfHHs"><li class="sc-8d73edac-0 ezcCTE"><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0k7dnjv" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 kNHAVz"><b id="listen-to-jeremy-read-this-article" class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kVRnKf">Listen to Jeremy read this article<!-- --></b></a></li></ul><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">For most of the people of Lebanon, a ceasefire could not come quickly enough. A leading Lebanese analyst at a conference on the Middle East that I’m attending in Rome said she couldn’t sleep as the appointed hour for the ceasefire came closer.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">“It was like the night before Christmas when you’re a kid. I couldn’t wait for it to happen.”<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">You can see why there’s relief. More than 3,500 citizens of Lebanon have been killed in Israeli strikes. Displaced people packed their cars before dawn to try to get back to whatever remains of their homes. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Well over one million of them have been forced to flee by Israeli military action. Thousands have been wounded and the homes of tens of thousands of others have been destroyed.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">But in Israel, some feel they have lost the chance to do more damage to Hezbollah. <!-- --></p></div><div data-component="ad-slot" data-testid="ad-unit" class="sc-eb24677f-0 kuYBMG"><div data-testid="dotcom-mid_1" id="dotcom-mid_1" class="dotcom-ad"></div></div><figure><div data-component="image-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 jFCfG"><div data-testid="image" class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png.webp" alt="Reuters A treated image showing buildings in ruins after an Israeli strikes in Southern Lebanon " class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/><span class="sc-a34861b-2 fxQYxK">Reuters</span></div></div><div data-component="caption-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 bdPeAJ"><figcaption class="sc-8353772e-0 cvNhQw">Damaged buildings in southern Lebanon - more than one million people fled the country<!-- --></figcaption></div></figure><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met the heads of Israel’s northern municipalities, which have been turned into ghost towns with around 60,000 <!-- --><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj3m4n4lmrko" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 bZUiKB">civilians evacuated<!-- --></a> further south. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Israel’s Ynet news website reported that it was an angry meeting that turned into a shouting match, with some of the local officials frustrated that Israel was taking the pressure off their enemies in Lebanon and not offering an immediate plan to get civilians home.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">In a newspaper column, the mayor of Kiryat Shmona, close to the border, said he doubted the ceasefire would be enforced, demanding that Israel creates a<!-- --><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vp7dg3ml1o" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 bZUiKB"> buffer zone in south Lebanon<!-- --></a>. In a poll commissioned by the Israeli station Channel 12 News those questioned were roughly split between supporters and opponents of the ceasefire. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Half of the participants in the survey believe Hezbollah has not been defeated and 30% think the ceasefire will collapse.<!-- --></p></div><div data-component="ad-slot" data-testid="ad-unit" class="sc-eb24677f-0 kuYBMG"><div data-testid="dotcom-mid_2" id="dotcom-mid_2" class="dotcom-ad"></div></div><figure><div data-component="image-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 jFCfG"><div data-testid="image" class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp" alt="ANADOLU A treated image showing a Lebanese girl standing in a vehicle, returning to her house after cease-fire " class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/><span class="sc-a34861b-2 fxQYxK">ANADOLU</span></div></div><div data-component="caption-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 bdPeAJ"><figcaption class="sc-8353772e-0 cvNhQw">People returned to their homes after the ceasefire was announced <!-- --></figcaption></div></figure><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Back in late September, at the UN General Assembly in New York, a deal looked as if it was close. Diplomats from the US and UK were convinced that a ceasefire very similar to the one that is now coming into force was about to happen. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">All sides in the war appeared to have signalled their willingness to accept a ceasefire based on the provisions of Security Council resolution 1701, which was passed to end the 2006 Lebanon war: Hezbollah would pull back from the border to be replaced by UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces. As they moved in, Israeli forces would gradually move out.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">But Prime Minister Netanyahu went to the podium at the UN to deliver a fiery speech that refused to accept any pause in Israel’s offensive.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Back at his New York hotel Netanyahu’s official photographer captured the moment as he ordered the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, along with most of his high command. Netanyahu’s office released the photos, in another calculated snub for American diplomacy.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">The assassination was a significant escalation and a blow to Hezbollah. In the weeks since, Israel’s military has inflicted immense damage to Hezbollah’s military organisation. It could still fire rockets over the border and its fighters continued to engage Israel’s invasion force. But <!-- --><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce89r02w1z1o" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 bZUiKB">Hezbollah is no longer the same threat<!-- --></a> to Israel.<!-- --></p></div><div data-component="ad-slot" data-testid="ad-unit" class="sc-eb24677f-0 kuYBMG"><div data-testid="dotcom-mid_3" id="dotcom-mid_3" class="dotcom-ad"></div></div><div data-component="subheadline-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 eeiVGB"><h2 class="sc-518485e5-0 kRvAla">Netanyahu: Time to 'replenish stocks’<!-- --></h2></div><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Military success is one of several factors that have come together to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu that this is a good time to stop. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Israel’s agenda in Lebanon is more limited than in Gaza and the rest of the occupied Palestinian territories. It wants to push Hezbollah back from its northern border and to allow civilians to return to border towns. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">If Hezbollah looks to be preparing an attack, Israel has a side letter from the Americans agreeing that it can take military action.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">In a recorded statement announcing his decision, Netanyahu listed the reasons why it was time for a ceasefire. Israel, he said, had made the ground in Beirut shake. Now there was a chance ‘to give our forces a breather and replenish stocks,’ he continued.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Israel had also broken the connection between Gaza and Lebanon. After the late Hassan Nasrallah ordered the attacks on Israel’s north, the day after Hamas went to war on 7 October last year, he said they would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.<!-- --></p></div><figure><div data-component="image-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 gfTVSf"><div data-testid="image" class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/49a2/live/00225090-ad81-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.jpg.webp" alt="Map of Gaza, Israel and Lebanon" class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/></div></div></figure><div data-component="ad-slot" data-testid="ad-unit" class="sc-eb24677f-0 kuYBMG"><div data-testid="dotcom-mid_4" id="dotcom-mid_4" class="dotcom-ad"></div></div><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Now, Netanyahu said, Hamas in Gaza would be under even more pressure. Palestinians fear another escalation in Israel’s Gaza offensive.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">There was one more reason; to concentrate on what Netanyahu called the Iranian threat. Damaging Hezbollah means damaging Iran. It was built up by the Iranians to create a threat right on Israel’s border. Hezbollah became the strongest part of Iran’s axis of resistance, the name it gave to its network of forward defence made up of allies and proxies.<!-- --></p></div><div data-component="subheadline-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 eeiVGB"><h2 class="sc-518485e5-0 kRvAla">Why Iran wanted a ceasefire<!-- --></h2></div><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Just like Hezbollah’s surviving leaders, their patrons in Iran also wanted a ceasefire. Hezbollah needs a pause to lick its wounds. Iran needs to stop the geostrategic bleeding. Its axis of resistance is no longer a deterrent. Iran’s missile attack on Israel after Nasrallah’s assassination did not repair the damage.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Two men, both now assassinated, designed Hezbollah to deter Israel not just from attacking Lebanon – but also from attacking Iran. They were Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, who was killed by an American drone strike at Baghdad airport in January 2020. The order was issued by Donald Trump in his last few weeks in the White House at the end of his first term. The other was Hassan Nasrallah, killed by a huge Israeli air strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Hezbollah and Iran’s deterrence strategy matched<!-- --><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 bZUiKB"> Israel’s own deterrence<!-- --></a> for almost 20 years after the end of the 2006 war. But among the profound changes caused by the 7 October attacks was Israel’s determination not to accept restrictions on the wars it would wage in response. America, its most important ally, also put almost no restrictions on the supply or use of the weapons it kept on providing.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Nasrallah and Iran failed to see what had happened. They did not understand how Israel had changed. They sought to impose a war of attrition on Israel, and succeeded for almost a year. Then on 17 September Israel broke out of it by triggering the miniature bombs built into the network of booby-trapped pagers its intelligence services had duped Hezbollah into buying.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Hezbollah was thrown off balance. Before it could react with the most powerful weapons Iran had provided, Israel killed Nasrallah and most of his key lieutenants, accompanied by massive strikes that destroyed arms dumps. That was followed by an invasion of South Lebanon and the wholesale destruction of Lebanese border villages as well as Hezbollah’s tunnel network.<!-- --></p></div><div data-component="ad-slot" data-testid="ad-unit" class="sc-eb24677f-0 kuYBMG"><div data-testid="dotcom-mid_5" id="dotcom-mid_5" class="dotcom-ad"></div></div><div data-component="subheadline-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 eeiVGB"><h2 class="sc-518485e5-0 kRvAla">Trump, Gaza and the future<!-- --></h2></div><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">A ceasefire in Lebanon is not necessarily a precursor to one in Gaza. Gaza is different. The war there is about more than security of the border, and Israeli hostages. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">It is also about revenge, about Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival, and his government’s absolute rejection of Palestinian aspirations for independence.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">The Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and deliberately paced to buy time for it to work. When the 60 days in which it is supposed to take effect ends, Donald Trump will be back in the Oval Office. President-elect Trump has indicated that he wants a ceasefire in Lebanon, but his precise plans have not yet emerged.<!-- --></p></div><figure><div data-component="image-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 jFCfG"><div data-testid="image" class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 50vw, (min-width: 1008px) 66vw, 96vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/9d86/live/d8929b40-ad6a-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png.webp" alt="Reuters A treated image showing a group of women and girls welcoming the people coming back to Tyre " class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/><span class="sc-a34861b-2 fxQYxK">Reuters</span></div></div><div data-component="caption-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 bdPeAJ"><figcaption class="sc-8353772e-0 cvNhQw">People return to the city of Tyre, Lebanon after the ceasefire comes into effect<!-- --></figcaption></div></figure><div data-component="ad-slot" data-testid="ad-unit" class="sc-eb24677f-0 kuYBMG"><div data-testid="dotcom-mid_6" id="dotcom-mid_6" class="dotcom-ad"></div></div><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">The Middle East is waiting for the ways he might affect the region. Some optimists hope that he might want to create a moment akin to President Nixon’s sensational visit to China in 1972 by reaching out to Iran. <!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">The pessimists fear he might abandon even the hollow genuflection that the US still makes to the idea of a creating an independent Palestine alongside Israel – the so-called two state solution. That might pave the way to annexation of those parts of the occupied Palestinian territories Israel wants, including much of the West Bank and northern Gaza.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">What is certain though is that the<!-- --><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c781vgy3918o" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 bZUiKB"> Middle East has no chance of escaping<!-- --></a> more generations of war and violent death until the region’s fundamental political ruptures are faced and fixed. The biggest is the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, along with most Israelis believe it is possible to dominate their enemies by pressing on to a military victory. Netanyahu is actively using force, unrestrained by the US, to alter the balance of power in the Middle East in Israel’s favour.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe">In a conflict that has lasted more than a century both Arabs and Jews have dreamt repeatedly of peace through military victory. Every generation has tried and failed. The catastrophic consequences of the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 ripped away any pretence that the conflict could be managed while Israel continued to deny Palestinian rights to self-determination. The ceasefire in Lebanon is a respite. It is not a solution.<!-- --></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe"></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe"><i id="top-picture-credit:-getty-images" class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kKcaog">Top picture credit: Getty Images <!-- --></i></p></div><div data-component="text-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 dlWCEZ"><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe"><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/bbcindepth" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 bZUiKB"><i id="bbc-indepth" class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kKcaog">BBC InDepth<!-- --></i></a><i id="is-the-new-home-on-the-website-and-app-for-the-best-analysis-and-expertise-from-our-top-journalists.-under-a-distinctive-new-brand,-we’ll-bring-you-fresh-perspectives-that-challenge-assumptions,-and-deep-reporting-on-the-biggest-issues-to-help-you-make-sense-of-a-complex-world.-and-we’ll-be-showcasing-thought-provoking-content-from-across-bbc-sounds-and-iplayer-too.-we’re-starting-small-but-thinking-big,-and-we-want-to-know-what-you-think---you-can-send-us-your-feedback-by-clicking-on-the-button-below." class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kKcaog"> is the new home on the website and app for the best analysis and expertise from our top journalists. Under a distinctive new brand, we’ll bring you fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions, and deep reporting on the biggest issues to help you make sense of a complex world. And we’ll be showcasing thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. We’re starting small but thinking big, and we want to know what you think - you can send us your feedback by clicking on the button below.<!-- --></i></p></div><div data-component="links-block" class="sc-18fde0d6-0 jVHuOl"><div class="sc-93223220-0 sc-46222299-0 ctbOlq eluqFz"><span data-testid="links-title" class="sc-46222299-2 gdGcRT">More from InDepth</span><div data-testid="links-grid" class="sc-93223220-0 sc-46222299-1 hVPZMe jMSIqG"><div data-testid="chester-card" class="sc-c6f6255e-0 eGcloy"><div data-testid="anchor-inner-wrapper"><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c789l8wzeggo" data-testid="external-anchor" target="_self" class="sc-2e6baa30-0 gILusN"><div data-testid="chester-article" class="sc-417019fc-0 iZGTHs"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-1 hxRodh"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-0 hcpAqY"><h2 data-testid="card-headline" class="sc-8ea7699c-3 dhclWg">Starmer will struggle to keep his ‘smash the gangs’ promise - as I saw firsthand<!-- 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srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/ad27/live/5b020ef0-f1de-11ef-b8a0-1f5227bb2ea7.jpg.webp" alt="Crowds wave flags in a stadium" class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/></div></div></div><div data-testid="card-text-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-6 dzMUxv"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-1 gTeoVH"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-0 hcpAqY"><h2 data-testid="card-headline" class="sc-8ea7699c-3 gRBdkE">Huge crowds gather for Hezbollah leader Nasrallah's funeral<!-- --></h2></div></div><p data-testid="card-description" class="sc-ae29827d-0 cNPpME">The coffin of the late Hezbollah leader was paraded through huge crowds of mourners.</p><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 kZsXRf"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bffMcX">2 days ago</span><div data-testid="card-metadata-separator" class="sc-6fba5bd4-3 eQhLId"></div><span data-testid="card-metadata-tag" class="sc-6fba5bd4-2 bHkTZK">Middle East</span></div></div></div></div></a></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-card" class="sc-c6f6255e-0 eGcloy"><div data-testid="anchor-inner-wrapper"><a href="/news/articles/c8x4pxwne1yo" data-testid="internal-link" class="sc-2e6baa30-0 gILusN"><div class="sc-ae29827d-4 ypQFr"><div class="sc-ae29827d-1 hAmwyA"><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 bFzmvn"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bCFJJn">3 days ago</span></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-article" class="sc-ae29827d-3 khCtOO"><div data-testid="card-media-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-5 jVhDCQ"><div data-testid="card-media" class="sc-ae29827d-2 bgogNC"><div class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1008px) 25vw, (min-width: 600px) 33vw, 50vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/7e39/live/d3221910-f1d5-11ef-8c03-7dfdbeeb2526.jpg.webp" alt="Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, speaks at a news conference. He is wearing a black suit with a red tie and is stood behind a lectern and in front of the flags of the US and Israel" class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/></div></div></div><div data-testid="card-text-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-6 dzMUxv"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-1 gTeoVH"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-0 hcpAqY"><h2 data-testid="card-headline" class="sc-8ea7699c-3 gRBdkE">Gaza ceasefire once again in doubt as first phase nears end<!-- --></h2></div></div><p data-testid="card-description" class="sc-ae29827d-0 cNPpME">Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indefinitely delayed the release of what would have been the biggest group of Palestinian prisoners so far</p><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 kZsXRf"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bffMcX">3 days ago</span><div data-testid="card-metadata-separator" class="sc-6fba5bd4-3 eQhLId"></div><span data-testid="card-metadata-tag" class="sc-6fba5bd4-2 bHkTZK">Middle East</span></div></div></div></div></a></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-card" class="sc-c6f6255e-0 eGcloy"><div data-testid="anchor-inner-wrapper"><a href="/news/world-middle-east-67053011" data-testid="internal-link" class="sc-2e6baa30-0 gILusN"><div class="sc-ae29827d-4 ypQFr"><div class="sc-ae29827d-1 hAmwyA"><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 bFzmvn"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bCFJJn">3 days ago</span></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-article" class="sc-ae29827d-3 khCtOO"><div data-testid="card-media-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-5 jVhDCQ"><div data-testid="card-media" class="sc-ae29827d-2 bgogNC"><div class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1008px) 25vw, (min-width: 600px) 33vw, 50vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/14A6E/production/_133709548_horn-yair.jpg.webp" alt="Eitan and Yair Horn" class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/></div></div></div><div data-testid="card-text-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-6 dzMUxv"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-1 gTeoVH"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-0 hcpAqY"><h2 data-testid="card-headline" class="sc-8ea7699c-3 gRBdkE">Stories of the hostages taken by Hamas from Israel<!-- --></h2></div></div><p data-testid="card-description" class="sc-ae29827d-0 cNPpME">Around 59 hostages taken during 7 October attacks are still believed to be in Gaza.</p><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 kZsXRf"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bffMcX">3 days ago</span><div data-testid="card-metadata-separator" class="sc-6fba5bd4-3 eQhLId"></div><span data-testid="card-metadata-tag" class="sc-6fba5bd4-2 bHkTZK">Middle East</span></div></div></div></div></a></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-card" class="sc-c6f6255e-0 eGcloy"><div data-testid="anchor-inner-wrapper"><a href="/news/world-middle-east-67477240" data-testid="internal-link" class="sc-2e6baa30-0 gILusN"><div class="sc-ae29827d-4 ypQFr"><div class="sc-ae29827d-1 hAmwyA"><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 bFzmvn"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bCFJJn">3 days ago</span></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-article" class="sc-ae29827d-3 khCtOO"><div data-testid="card-media-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-5 jVhDCQ"><div data-testid="card-media" class="sc-ae29827d-2 bgogNC"><div class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1008px) 25vw, (min-width: 600px) 33vw, 50vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/149E4/production/_133725448_gazagetty.png.webp" alt="Alexander (Sasha) Troufanov was freed on 15 February" class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/></div></div></div><div data-testid="card-text-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-6 dzMUxv"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-1 gTeoVH"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-0 hcpAqY"><h2 data-testid="card-headline" class="sc-8ea7699c-3 gRBdkE">Who are Israeli hostages released and rescued from Gaza?<!-- --></h2></div></div><p data-testid="card-description" class="sc-ae29827d-0 cNPpME">Hamas took 251 people hostage in the 7 October attacks.</p><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 kZsXRf"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bffMcX">3 days ago</span><div data-testid="card-metadata-separator" class="sc-6fba5bd4-3 eQhLId"></div><span data-testid="card-metadata-tag" class="sc-6fba5bd4-2 bHkTZK">Middle East</span></div></div></div></div></a></div></div><div data-component="ad-slot" data-testid="ad-unit" class="sc-eb24677f-0 kuYBMG"><div data-testid="dotcom-mid_7" id="dotcom-mid_7" class="dotcom-ad"></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-card" class="sc-c6f6255e-0 eGcloy"><div data-testid="anchor-inner-wrapper"><a href="/news/videos/cn7vm6l24xlo" data-testid="internal-link" class="sc-2e6baa30-0 gILusN"><div class="sc-ae29827d-4 ypQFr"><div class="sc-ae29827d-1 hAmwyA"><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 bFzmvn"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bCFJJn">4 days ago</span></div></div><div data-testid="liverpool-video" class="sc-ae29827d-3 fKfpeF"><div data-testid="card-media-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-5 jVhDCQ"><div data-testid="card-media" class="sc-ae29827d-2 bgogNC"><div class="sc-a34861b-1 jxzoZC"><img src="/bbcx/grey-placeholder.png" class="sc-a34861b-0 cOpVbP hide-when-no-script"/><img sizes="(min-width: 1008px) 25vw, (min-width: 600px) 33vw, 50vw" srcSet="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/240/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp 240w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp 320w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp 480w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp 640w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp 800w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp 1024w,https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp 1536w" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/28e4/live/1b420220-f116-11ef-9e61-71ee71f26eb1.jpg.webp" alt="Four of the men were kidnapped on 7 October 2023, while the two have been held for a decade. " class="sc-a34861b-0 efFcac"/></div></div><div data-testid="content-type-label" class="sc-a05a8833-0 llJntW"><div data-testid="content-type-icon-wrapper" class="sc-a05a8833-1 dMNBUc"><svg viewBox="0 0 32 32" width="30" height="30" category="playback-avkx" icon="play" type="playback-avkx:play" class="sc-735e4804-0 cCvcou"><path d="M29 16 5.8 1v30L29 16z"></path></svg></div></div></div><div data-testid="card-text-wrapper" class="sc-ae29827d-6 dzMUxv"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-1 gTeoVH"><div class="sc-8ea7699c-0 hcpAqY"><h2 data-testid="card-headline" class="sc-8ea7699c-3 gRBdkE">Watch: Six Israeli hostages released in Gaza<!-- --></h2></div></div><p data-testid="card-description" class="sc-ae29827d-0 cNPpME">Four of the men were kidnapped on 7 October 2023, while the two have been held for a decade. </p><div class="sc-6fba5bd4-0 kZsXRf"><span data-testid="card-metadata-lastupdated" class="sc-6fba5bd4-1 bffMcX">4 days ago</span><div data-testid="card-metadata-separator" 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All rights reserved. <!-- --><i id="" class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kKcaog"> <!-- --></i>The<!-- --><i id="bbc" class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kKcaog"> BBC <!-- --></i>is<!-- --><i id="not-responsible-for-the-content-of-external-sites." class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kKcaog"> not responsible for the content of external sites.<!-- --></i> <!-- --><a target="_self" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/editorialguidelines/guidance/feeds-and-links" class="sc-c9299ecf-0 bZUiKB"><b id="read-about-our-approach-to-external-linking." class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kVRnKf">Read about our approach to external linking.<!-- --></b></a></p><p class="sc-eb7bd5f6-0 fYAfXe"> <!-- --></p></div></footer></div></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"page":{"@\"news\",\"articles\",\"c5ygn5579gvo\",":{"id":"urn:bbc:optimo:asset:c5ygn5579gvo","contents":[{"type":"headline","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"The Lebanon ceasefire is a respite, not a solution for the Middle East","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"The Lebanon ceasefire is a respite, not a solution for the Middle East","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"timestamp","model":{"timestamp":1732737047735}},{"type":"byline","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"contributor","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"name","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Jeremy Bowen","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Jeremy Bowen","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"role","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"International Editor","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"International Editor","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"link","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"@BowenBBC","blocks":[{"type":"urlLink","model":{"text":"@BowenBBC","locator":"https://twitter.com/BowenBBC","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"@BowenBBC","attributes":[]}}],"isExternal":true}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"images","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"image","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"rawImage","model":{"width":800,"height":800,"locator":"f256/live/f0c95320-aca2-11ef-bdf5-b7cb2fa86e10.png","originCode":"cpsprodpb"}},{"type":"altText","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Jeremy Bowen","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Jeremy Bowen","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"timestamp","model":{"timestamp":1732737047735}}]}},{"type":"image","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"altText","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs ","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"rawImage","model":{"width":2500,"height":2500,"locator":"b7f7/live/e1251070-acb7-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png","originCode":"cpsprodpb","copyrightHolder":"BBC","suitableForSyndication":true}}],"emphasiseImage":true}},{"type":"text","model":{"suitableForAbridgement":false,"blocks":[{"type":"unorderedList","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"listItem","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Listen to Jeremy read this article","blocks":[{"type":"urlLink","model":{"text":"Listen to Jeremy read this article","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Listen to Jeremy read this article","attributes":["bold"]}}],"locator":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0k7dnjv","isExternal":false}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"For most of the people of Lebanon, a ceasefire could not come quickly enough. A leading Lebanese analyst at a conference on the Middle East that I’m attending in Rome said she couldn’t sleep as the appointed hour for the ceasefire came closer.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"For most of the people of Lebanon, a ceasefire could not come quickly enough. A leading Lebanese analyst at a conference on the Middle East that I’m attending in Rome said she couldn’t sleep as the appointed hour for the ceasefire came closer.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"“It was like the night before Christmas when you’re a kid. I couldn’t wait for it to happen.”","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"“It was like the night before Christmas when you’re a kid. I couldn’t wait for it to happen.”","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"You can see why there’s relief. More than 3,500 citizens of Lebanon have been killed in Israeli strikes. Displaced people packed their cars before dawn to try to get back to whatever remains of their homes. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"You can see why there’s relief. More than 3,500 citizens of Lebanon have been killed in Israeli strikes. Displaced people packed their cars before dawn to try to get back to whatever remains of their homes. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Well over one million of them have been forced to flee by Israeli military action. Thousands have been wounded and the homes of tens of thousands of others have been destroyed.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Well over one million of them have been forced to flee by Israeli military action. Thousands have been wounded and the homes of tens of thousands of others have been destroyed.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"But in Israel, some feel they have lost the chance to do more damage to Hezbollah. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"But in Israel, some feel they have lost the chance to do more damage to Hezbollah. ","attributes":[]}}]}}]}},{"type":"advertisement","model":{"adType":"horizontal"},"incrementedType":"mid_1"},{"type":"image","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"caption","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Damaged buildings in southern Lebanon - more than one million people fled the country","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Damaged buildings in southern Lebanon - more than one million people fled the country","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"altText","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"A treated image showing buildings in ruins after an Israeli strikes in Southern Lebanon ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"A treated image showing buildings in ruins after an Israeli strikes in Southern Lebanon ","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"rawImage","model":{"width":1920,"height":1280,"locator":"6302/live/1c2c2d50-acb5-11ef-a4fe-a3e9a6c5d640.png","originCode":"cpsprodpb","copyrightHolder":"Reuters","suitableForSyndication":true}}]}},{"type":"text","model":{"suitableForAbridgement":false,"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met the heads of Israel’s northern municipalities, which have been turned into ghost towns with around 60,000 civilians evacuated further south. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met the heads of Israel’s northern municipalities, which have been turned into ghost towns with around 60,000 ","attributes":[]}},{"type":"urlLink","model":{"text":"civilians evacuated","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"civilians evacuated","attributes":[]}}],"locator":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj3m4n4lmrko","isExternal":false}},{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":" further south. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Israel’s Ynet news website reported that it was an angry meeting that turned into a shouting match, with some of the local officials frustrated that Israel was taking the pressure off their enemies in Lebanon and not offering an immediate plan to get civilians home.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Israel’s Ynet news website reported that it was an angry meeting that turned into a shouting match, with some of the local officials frustrated that Israel was taking the pressure off their enemies in Lebanon and not offering an immediate plan to get civilians home.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"In a newspaper column, the mayor of Kiryat Shmona, close to the border, said he doubted the ceasefire would be enforced, demanding that Israel creates a buffer zone in south Lebanon. In a poll commissioned by the Israeli station Channel 12 News those questioned were roughly split between supporters and opponents of the ceasefire. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"In a newspaper column, the mayor of Kiryat Shmona, close to the border, said he doubted the ceasefire would be enforced, demanding that Israel creates a","attributes":[]}},{"type":"urlLink","model":{"text":" buffer zone in south Lebanon","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":" buffer zone in south Lebanon","attributes":[]}}],"locator":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vp7dg3ml1o","isExternal":false}},{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":". In a poll commissioned by the Israeli station Channel 12 News those questioned were roughly split between supporters and opponents of the ceasefire. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Half of the participants in the survey believe Hezbollah has not been defeated and 30% think the ceasefire will collapse.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Half of the participants in the survey believe Hezbollah has not been defeated and 30% think the ceasefire will collapse.","attributes":[]}}]}}]}},{"type":"advertisement","model":{"adType":"horizontal"},"incrementedType":"mid_2"},{"type":"image","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"caption","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"People returned to their homes after the ceasefire was announced ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"People returned to their homes after the ceasefire was announced ","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"altText","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"A treated image showing a Lebanese girl standing in a vehicle, returning to her house after cease-fire\n","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"A treated image showing a Lebanese girl standing in a vehicle, returning to her house after cease-fire\n","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}]}},{"type":"rawImage","model":{"width":1920,"height":1280,"locator":"c5c3/live/2c8f3c10-acb4-11ef-8ab9-9192db313061.png","originCode":"cpsprodpb","copyrightHolder":"ANADOLU","suitableForSyndication":false}}]}},{"type":"text","model":{"suitableForAbridgement":false,"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Back in late September, at the UN General Assembly in New York, a deal looked as if it was close. Diplomats from the US and UK were convinced that a ceasefire very similar to the one that is now coming into force was about to happen. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Back in late September, at the UN General Assembly in New York, a deal looked as if it was close. Diplomats from the US and UK were convinced that a ceasefire very similar to the one that is now coming into force was about to happen. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"All sides in the war appeared to have signalled their willingness to accept a ceasefire based on the provisions of Security Council resolution 1701, which was passed to end the 2006 Lebanon war: Hezbollah would pull back from the border to be replaced by UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces. As they moved in, Israeli forces would gradually move out.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"All sides in the war appeared to have signalled their willingness to accept a ceasefire based on the provisions of Security Council resolution 1701, which was passed to end the 2006 Lebanon war: Hezbollah would pull back from the border to be replaced by UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces. As they moved in, Israeli forces would gradually move out.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"But Prime Minister Netanyahu went to the podium at the UN to deliver a fiery speech that refused to accept any pause in Israel’s offensive.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"But Prime Minister Netanyahu went to the podium at the UN to deliver a fiery speech that refused to accept any pause in Israel’s offensive.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Back at his New York hotel Netanyahu’s official photographer captured the moment as he ordered the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, along with most of his high command. 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But ","attributes":[]}},{"type":"urlLink","model":{"text":"Hezbollah is no longer the same threat","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Hezbollah is no longer the same threat","attributes":[]}}],"locator":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce89r02w1z1o","isExternal":false}},{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":" to Israel.","attributes":[]}}]}}]}},{"type":"advertisement","model":{"adType":"horizontal"},"incrementedType":"mid_3"},{"type":"subheadline","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Netanyahu: Time to 'replenish stocks’","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Netanyahu: Time to 'replenish stocks’","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}],"level":2}},{"type":"text","model":{"suitableForAbridgement":false,"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Military success is one of several factors that have come together to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu that this is a good time to stop. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Military success is one of several factors that have come together to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu that this is a good time to stop. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Israel’s agenda in Lebanon is more limited than in Gaza and the rest of the occupied Palestinian territories. It wants to push Hezbollah back from its northern border and to allow civilians to return to border towns. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Israel’s agenda in Lebanon is more limited than in Gaza and the rest of the occupied Palestinian territories. It wants to push Hezbollah back from its northern border and to allow civilians to return to border towns. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"If Hezbollah looks to be preparing an attack, Israel has a side letter from the Americans agreeing that it can take military action.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"If Hezbollah looks to be preparing an attack, Israel has a side letter from the Americans agreeing that it can take military action.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"In a recorded statement announcing his decision, Netanyahu listed the reasons why it was time for a ceasefire. Israel, he said, had made the ground in Beirut shake. Now there was a chance ‘to give our forces a breather and replenish stocks,’ he continued.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"In a recorded statement announcing his decision, Netanyahu listed the reasons why it was time for a ceasefire. Israel, he said, had made the ground in Beirut shake. 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Hezbollah became the strongest part of Iran’s axis of resistance, the name it gave to its network of forward defence made up of allies and proxies.","attributes":[]}}]}}]}},{"type":"subheadline","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Why Iran wanted a ceasefire","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Why Iran wanted a ceasefire","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}],"level":2}},{"type":"text","model":{"suitableForAbridgement":false,"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Just like Hezbollah’s surviving leaders, their patrons in Iran also wanted a ceasefire. Hezbollah needs a pause to lick its wounds. Iran needs to stop the geostrategic bleeding. Its axis of resistance is no longer a deterrent. Iran’s missile attack on Israel after Nasrallah’s assassination did not repair the damage.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Just like Hezbollah’s surviving leaders, their patrons in Iran also wanted a ceasefire. Hezbollah needs a pause to lick its wounds. Iran needs to stop the geostrategic bleeding. Its axis of resistance is no longer a deterrent. Iran’s missile attack on Israel after Nasrallah’s assassination did not repair the damage.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Two men, both now assassinated, designed Hezbollah to deter Israel not just from attacking Lebanon – but also from attacking Iran. They were Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, who was killed by an American drone strike at Baghdad airport in January 2020. The order was issued by Donald Trump in his last few weeks in the White House at the end of his first term. The other was Hassan Nasrallah, killed by a huge Israeli air strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Two men, both now assassinated, designed Hezbollah to deter Israel not just from attacking Lebanon – but also from attacking Iran. 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America, its most important ally, also put almost no restrictions on the supply or use of the weapons it kept on providing.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Hezbollah and Iran’s deterrence strategy matched","attributes":[]}},{"type":"urlLink","model":{"text":" Israel’s own deterrence","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":" Israel’s own deterrence","attributes":[]}}],"locator":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo","isExternal":false}},{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":" for almost 20 years after the end of the 2006 war. But among the profound changes caused by the 7 October attacks was Israel’s determination not to accept restrictions on the wars it would wage in response. America, its most important ally, also put almost no restrictions on the supply or use of the weapons it kept on providing.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Nasrallah and Iran failed to see what had happened. They did not understand how Israel had changed. They sought to impose a war of attrition on Israel, and succeeded for almost a year. Then on 17 September Israel broke out of it by triggering the miniature bombs built into the network of booby-trapped pagers its intelligence services had duped Hezbollah into buying.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Nasrallah and Iran failed to see what had happened. They did not understand how Israel had changed. They sought to impose a war of attrition on Israel, and succeeded for almost a year. Then on 17 September Israel broke out of it by triggering the miniature bombs built into the network of booby-trapped pagers its intelligence services had duped Hezbollah into buying.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Hezbollah was thrown off balance. Before it could react with the most powerful weapons Iran had provided, Israel killed Nasrallah and most of his key lieutenants, accompanied by massive strikes that destroyed arms dumps. That was followed by an invasion of South Lebanon and the wholesale destruction of Lebanese border villages as well as Hezbollah’s tunnel network.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Hezbollah was thrown off balance. Before it could react with the most powerful weapons Iran had provided, Israel killed Nasrallah and most of his key lieutenants, accompanied by massive strikes that destroyed arms dumps. That was followed by an invasion of South Lebanon and the wholesale destruction of Lebanese border villages as well as Hezbollah’s tunnel network.","attributes":[]}}]}}]}},{"type":"advertisement","model":{"adType":"horizontal"},"incrementedType":"mid_5"},{"type":"subheadline","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"text","model":{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"Trump, Gaza and the future","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"Trump, Gaza and the future","attributes":[]}}]}}]}}],"level":2}},{"type":"text","model":{"suitableForAbridgement":false,"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"A ceasefire in Lebanon is not necessarily a precursor to one in Gaza. Gaza is different. The war there is about more than security of the border, and Israeli hostages. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"A ceasefire in Lebanon is not necessarily a precursor to one in Gaza. Gaza is different. The war there is about more than security of the border, and Israeli hostages. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"It is also about revenge, about Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival, and his government’s absolute rejection of Palestinian aspirations for independence.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"It is also about revenge, about Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival, and his government’s absolute rejection of Palestinian aspirations for independence.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"The Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and deliberately paced to buy time for it to work. When the 60 days in which it is supposed to take effect ends, Donald Trump will be back in the Oval Office. President-elect Trump has indicated that he wants a ceasefire in Lebanon, but his precise plans have not yet emerged.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"The Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and deliberately paced to buy time for it to work. 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Some optimists hope that he might want to create a moment akin to President Nixon’s sensational visit to China in 1972 by reaching out to Iran. ","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"The Middle East is waiting for the ways he might affect the region. Some optimists hope that he might want to create a moment akin to President Nixon’s sensational visit to China in 1972 by reaching out to Iran. ","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"The pessimists fear he might abandon even the hollow genuflection that the US still makes to the idea of a creating an independent Palestine alongside Israel – the so-called two state solution. That might pave the way to annexation of those parts of the occupied Palestinian territories Israel wants, including much of the West Bank and northern Gaza.","blocks":[{"type":"fragment","model":{"text":"The pessimists fear he might abandon even the hollow genuflection that the US still makes to the idea of a creating an independent Palestine alongside Israel – the so-called two state solution. That might pave the way to annexation of those parts of the occupied Palestinian territories Israel wants, including much of the West Bank and northern Gaza.","attributes":[]}}]}},{"type":"paragraph","model":{"text":"What is certain though is that the Middle East has no chance of escaping more generations of war and violent death until the region’s fundamental political ruptures are faced and fixed. 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