【华夏时报】煤价失守700元关口创四年新低！板块突然大爆发，红利资产又香了？-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>板块强势上涨，大有能源（600403.SH）、美锦能源（000723.SZ）冲击涨停，斩获4天2板。新集能源（601918.SH）上涨8.52%，晋控煤业（601001.SH）、郑州煤电（600121.SH）涨超6%，陕西煤业、昊华能源及山煤国际等多股跟涨。</p> <p>东方财富App数据显示，煤炭行业板块整体涨幅高达3.6%，涨势显著。在35家成分股中，仅有云维股份1家企业股价下跌，其余34家企业股价纷纷上涨。</p> <p>对于板块大涨，一知名券商投顾人员告诉《华夏时报》记者，煤炭股主要是红利，这对追求红利收益和稳健的资金具有较大吸引力。相比之下，此前涨幅较大的科技股近期开始出现回调，这些资金回流至处于相对低位、具备红利优势的板块，如电力能源和煤炭板块的股票。</p> <p>前海开源首席经济学家杨德龙在接受记者采访时指出，煤炭板块有望迎来重新布局的起点，一是宏观政策利多和资本市场支持力度，二是高分红且多分红已成趋势，三是产业资本入局预示行情底部来临。</p> <p><strong>今年曾大幅回调</strong></p> <p>作为红利股，记者了解到，2019年至2024年，煤炭板块已连涨6年，去年，多只煤炭股创下近年来新高。不过，进入2025年以来，煤炭股股价普遍受挫。今年1月2日至3月12日，短短两个多月时间，数据显示，煤炭指数跌幅达到12.76%，最大回撤为-15.35%。</p> <p>个股方面，本轮股价上涨前一日，即截至3月12日收盘，今年以来，陕西煤业股价累计下降18.23%，中国神华下跌17.36%，中煤能源下跌17.32%，山西焦煤降幅为17.11%，潞安环能下降15.04%。</p> <p>3月13日，煤炭股逆势飙升，迎来久违的大涨。大有能源和美锦能源强势涨停，新集能源（601918.SH）上涨8.52%，晋控煤业涨幅达6.96%、郑州煤电上涨6.92%，除云维股份外，其余个股纷纷跟涨。</p> <p>在本轮股价上涨前，信达证券3月9日研报曾指出，煤炭资产相对低估且估值整体性仍有望提升的判断未变，且公募基金煤炭持仓处于低配状态。煤炭板块迎来较大回调，再次出现较高性价比的底部机会。</p> <p>对于本轮股价上涨，杨德龙对记者表示，3月两会召开之后，无论<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>动力煤</a>还是<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>炼焦煤</a>价格均处于低位，随着供需基本面的持续改善，这两类煤种有望企稳反弹，其中动力煤存在区间内弹性而炼焦煤是完全弹性。当前宏观政策已表现力度很大，政策方案落实以及开春施工季的来临，煤炭的需求和价格均有望体现出向上趋势，煤炭股周期属性将显现，煤炭板块有望迎来重新布局的起点。</p> <p><strong>跌破700元大关</strong></p> <p>自2023年10月开始，煤炭价格整体呈现下跌态势。尤其是2024年12月至2025年3月，煤价下行速度加快。</p> <p><span style="color: #a52a2a;"><strong>“截至3月4日，动力煤秦皇岛港Q5500价格报690元/吨，年同比跌235元/吨，为近四年最低点。”上海钢联煤焦事业部动力煤分析师张雯雯表示。</strong></span></p> <p>不过，近期，产地动力煤价格呈V型走势。记者了解到，内蒙古东胜动力煤（Q5200）坑口价471元/吨，周度环比上涨9元/吨，同比下降175元/吨；山西<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050201-0-010404-------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>大同动力煤</a>（Q5500）坑口价517元/吨，周度环比下降5元/吨，同比下降215元/吨；陕西<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050201-0-010701-------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>榆林动力煤</a>（Q5500）坑口价570元/吨，周度环比上涨80元/吨，同比下降120元/吨。</p> <p>截至3月10日，CCTD环渤海5500大卡动力煤现货参考价为695元/吨，日环比上涨1元/吨，也是春节后首次实现连续上涨。</p> <p><span style="color: #a52a2a;"><strong>张雯雯告诉记者，随着市场煤价连续下跌至中长协价格附近，部分电厂空单及少量刚需采购需求有所释放，市场交易活跃度短暂提升，北方港口市场报价止跌趋稳，但在港口高库存重压之下，本周煤价反弹支撑力度不足。后期三月中下旬北方供暖季结束，民用负荷回落，叠加电厂机组陆续开始检修，逐步进入传统用煤淡季，动力煤价仍有下跌压力。</strong></span></p> <p><span style="color: #a52a2a;"><strong>对于未来煤炭价格趋势，张雯雯进一步指出，本月非电企业复工及基建加快，非电耗煤量有所提升，但天气转暖后，居民用电需求将持续走弱，后续电厂日耗预期难有突出表现，下游需求释放缺乏持续性，且现阶段北方港口库存累至历史高位，市场供需宽松格局难改，后期动力煤市场价格或将缓慢下跌继续探底。</strong></span></p> <p><strong>两大协会呼吁控制产量</strong></p> <p>过去两年，进口煤量超预期大幅增长，是影响国内煤炭供需面，压制煤价的重要因素之一。海关总署数据，2024年，我国进口煤5.4亿吨，同比增长14.4%。国内煤炭供给也比较宽松，2024年，我国原煤产量47.6亿吨，同比增长1.3%。</p> <p>2月28日，中国煤炭工业协会、中国煤炭运销协会最新发布的《倡议书》强调，自去年进入供暖季以来，煤炭企业严格落实电煤和居民取暖保供政策要求，有序释放先进产能，煤炭进口维持高位，市场供应整体充足，但下游行业煤炭需求增长不及预期，煤炭供强需弱压力不断加大，市场价格快速下滑，行业效益持续下降。</p> <p>两大煤炭协会呼吁，有序推动煤炭产量控制，维护生产供需平衡。面对下游有效需求不足、全社会煤炭库存居高不下态势，煤炭企业要主动调整生产节奏，稳定和控制煤炭产量，防止出现严重的市场供大于求态势。同时还提到，严格执行电煤中长期合同，确保合同履约兑现；发挥好进口煤补充调节作用，有效控制劣质煤进口量。</p> <p>当前，我国煤炭库存仍处于高位。截至2025年3月7日，55个港口样本动力煤库存环比增142.5万吨至7305.4万吨，创3个月高位。</p> <p>值得一提的是，动力煤供给有所收紧。从海关总署公布的数据来看，2024年11月进口煤炭创下新高后，自2024年12月开始环比下滑，今年前两个月延续下降趋势。受性价比收缩影响，2024年1-2月煤炭日均进口量129万吨，环比12月份下降40万吨，降幅23.7%。</p> <p>3月以来，进口煤优势进一步收窄，多数品种已经处于倒挂状态，煤炭进口量有望保持环比下降趋势。另外，“两会”前后，地方安全监管从严，国内煤炭产量会受到一定影响，资源供给压力有所缓解。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：费斐 021-26093397 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div 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