Mysteel：“金九”将至电解铜箔加工费走势如何-我的钢铁网

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id="text"> <p>8月<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>箔原材料价格在较低位置徘徊，市场热度不温不火，电子电路市场与锂电市场相差明显，而<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>箔加工费并未有太大变化。即将进入9月，原材料价格反弹后又将给铜箔市场带来何种变化？供需两端变化如何？加工费何去何从？</p> <p><strong>一、多方因素交织，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>或将持续波动</strong></p> <p>8月以来，铜价先抑后扬，月初铜价一度跌破71000元/吨，之后随着国内需求回暖下游出货量增加，海外矿山扰动因素增加以及美联储降息预期逐渐清晰，铜价开始触底反弹稳步上涨。截止8月27日，8月沪铜主力合约收盘月均价为73037元/吨，相比于7月的月均价77490元/吨下降4450元/吨，重新回到了上半年3月份的位置。</p> <p>进入9月，最为重要的美联储降息即将落地，市场情绪较为积极，铜价向上的宏观支撑力度较大；矿端供应暂时稳定但横贯全年的紧张状况并未有太大改变，现货TC的上涨空间有限；需求方面，随着“金九银十”传统消费旺季到来，国内铜消费持续回暖，叠加目前再生铜受多种因素影响，供需双弱，再生市场回归至正常水平仍需时间，短期精铜消费依旧可观。<strong>总的来说，在多方作用下，之后一段时间内铜价或将延续当前震荡偏涨的势头。</strong></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><strong><img src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/28/91bf0204b85e466c80b6f8e13dbae8f9.png" alt="" width="507" height="288" /></strong>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>二、实际需求增量有限，电子电路铜箔依旧承压</strong></p> <p>8月电子电路铜箔供需两弱，市场表现较为疲软。一方面，今年以来消费电子市场一直未有明显恢复，前期因为原材料价格上涨加工费有所波动，但实际需求增加有限，进入传统消费淡季，上下游颓势尽显，加工费也一降再降重回年初低位；另一方面，8月成交采用7月铜均价，两个月均价价差较大，铜价持续下滑也抑制了部分下游需求。对于下月，铜均价的回落为市场成交创造了有利条件，叠加现货市场铜价看多情绪见涨，前期滞后订单以及部分备库订单均得以释放。但实际需求短期来看难以恢复，下游覆铜板企业也在考虑通过降价出货来提高市占率。<strong>在该情况下，电子电路铜箔9月加工费或将延续此前低位承压处境，上涨可能性较小，总体基本持平。</strong>后续可等待海外市场回暖来刺激加工费变动，并且铜箔进口量持续减少也为国内电子电路铜箔的发展提供些许机会。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/28/9366fe3cd7304df1a5c34807700da3eb.png" alt="" width="554" height="324" />数据来源：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a></p> <p><strong>三、供需双增，9月锂电铜箔走量不走价</strong></p> <p>今年以来新能源市场表现始终在线，无论是动力电池市场亦或是储能市场均有亮眼表现。2024年1-7月动力电池装车量为244.9GWh，同比2023年1-7月增长33%；2024年1-7月新型储能新增装机40.5GWh，同比增长156%。8月份，锂电铜箔相比7月热度有所上升，市场出货量有所增加，虽然中小电池厂目前生存压力较大，但头部电池厂却稳步增产中。同时，不同厚度铜箔渗透率发生变化，4.5微米需求量持续增加，6微米供应有所减少。</p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/28/cb9c5417f7cc4902807d25ed892ceebd.png" alt="" width="480" height="292" />数据来源：中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟、Mysteel</p> <p>进入9月，锂电市场有望继续保持此前热度，供需两端有望双增。<strong>根据Mysteel调研，9月锂电铜箔产能预计有所增加，前期部分暂停产线将陆续打开，而头部电池厂需求预计增加5%-10%。对于铜箔厂而言，如果拥有稳定客户群体的将有望通过提升4.5微米出货量来获得更高的利润。但就加工费而言，铜箔厂上调难度较大并且部分铜箔厂或将微降自身加工费报价，</strong>主要是因为上半年铜箔厂多数处于亏损状况，距离企业经营目标存在一定差距，计划9月多出些货来为复杂的四季度做好准备；此外，铜价持续走高，对于下游电池而言，采购成本有所上升，对于铜箔厂调整加工费接受度较低。<strong>总的来说，9月锂电铜箔加工费变化不大，部分企业存在下调500元/吨-1000元/吨的可能性。</strong></p> <p style="text-align: right;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/28/558e6776d4214743a1b660382c3105b5.png" alt="" width="554" height="290" />数据来源：Mysteel</p> <p><strong>四、总结及预测</strong></p> <p>9月电解铜箔市场相比于8月，供需两端均可能有所好转，而加工费上涨难度较大，下游市场对于铜箔厂调整加工费接受度一般。铜价波动会促进下游进行备库性采购，但实际需求好转才能对加工费调整起绝对支撑作用。电子电路市场与锂电市场持续劈叉中，4.5微米市占率接下来将进一步上升，进口铜箔的减少也为国内铜箔企业发展提供一定机会，走出去或将是很多铜箔企业新的发展机会。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：俞灿 13120595901 </br> 资讯监督：高晨曦 021-26093253 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-1941-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-1941-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div 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