美国的登月梦，要被SpaceX盘活了？|飞船|太空|宇航员|nasa|波音公司|国际空间站|spacex

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src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F0908fd96j00snncml009fd001kw00vzg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14HO">本文来自微信公众号：脱落酸，作者：脱落酸，编辑：叶子，题图来自：视觉中国</p><p id="372M14HQ">SpaceX星舰的第六次试飞未能复现“筷子夹火箭”（助推器回到发射台被机械臂夹住）的壮举。</p><p id="372M14HS">不过猛禽发动机（飞船发动机）的太空重启，<strong>还是证明了飞船在外星球“调整位置速度、重新起航”的能力。</strong></p><p id="372M14HU">试飞仍在进行，SpaceX就迫不及待发了推。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F3a0b51ddj00snncml004rd000rs007zg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14I2">整个过程，瑕不掩瑜，距离“重返月球”“殖民火星”又近了一步。</p><p id="372M14I4">美国上一次登月，是1972年的阿波罗17号，已经过去半个世纪。</p><p id="372M14I6">那之后前30年的航天事业，几乎处于停滞状态。</p><p id="372M14I8">2001年，马斯克萌生太空梦时，彻夜翻遍NASA网站，没找到任何火星计划。“做到登月就到头儿了，就不做了？”</p><p id="372M14IA">无法接受技术倒退的他，一鼓作气成立SpaceX，最后亲自造了支火箭拖到NASA局长肖恩·奥基夫“面前”。</p><p id="372M14IC">局长派副手评估SpaceX实力，结果认为：“NASA投资这家公司是很有必要的”。</p><p id="372M14IE">就这样，<strong>从2006年开始，双方签订了不少合同。</strong></p><p id="372M14IG">尤其是美国航天飞机计划结束（1981年—2011年）后，SpaceX更在NASA的目光注视下一路狂飙。</p><p id="372M14II">2012年5月25日，“龙飞船”搭乘“猎鹰9”升空与国际空间站（ISS）对接，3天后完成1000磅的物资转运。</p><p id="372M14IK">2020年，“载人版龙飞船”搭乘“猎鹰9”火箭升空。这是自2011年以来，美国首次使用国产火箭从本土将宇航员送往ISS。</p><p id="372M14IM"><strong>要不是SpaceX，美国可能要一直依靠俄罗斯联盟号宇宙飞船送人上ISS。</strong></p><p id="372M14IO">这不禁让人怀疑，NASA花了50年都做不到的事，就要被SpaceX干成了？</p><p><h5>SpaceX靠“性价比”站上NASA承应商C位</h5></p><p id="372M14IR">波音最不愿意接受的一幕出现了。</p><p id="372M14IT">今年6月，波音星际客机首次载人试飞，遭遇氦气泄漏和发动机故障，原定的8天任务被迫延长明年2月。健康亮起红灯的宇航员们还在等待SpaceX的救援。</p><p id="372M14IV">十年前的NASA绝对不会相信，SpaceX要为波音收拾残局。</p><p id="372M14J1"><strong>2014年，</strong><strong>波音公司和SpaceX同时获得CCtCap合同，开发自己的航天器（比如星际客机、星际飞船）送机组人员往返ISS。</strong></p><p id="372M14J3">波音拿到了42亿美元的单子，而SpaceX的价格比波音少了三分之一，仅为26亿美元。</p><p id="372M14J5">没有人敢质疑这项资金分配。波音和NASA是老情人了，早在1950年代末的水星计划就合作过。过去的波音技术雄厚，战功赫赫，NASA对它滤镜满满，不料短短六年，风向就变了。</p><p id="372M14J7">2020年，SpaceX率先用“猎鹰9”火箭“龙飞船”将宇航员送入ISS。</p><p id="372M14J9">相比之下，波音的星际客机直到2022年5月，才完成一次无人驾驶的ISS试飞。而此前的两次无人试飞均遭遇软硬件问题。</p><p id="372M14JB">尽管波音忙于解决一个又一个工程难题，NASA仍为它的失败找借口。</p><p id="372M14JD">国际空间站项目经理达娜·韦格尔说：“两者的发展路径不同，不宜直接比较”。她指出：<strong>SpaceX的载人龙飞船基于早期的货运龙飞船项目，而波音的星际客机则缺乏这样的基础。</strong></p><p id="372M14JF">好一个帮亲不帮理，NASA偏袒波音，感情上要过得去，给钱也丝毫不含糊。</p><p id="372M14JH"><strong>反观SpaceX，跟NASA签了不少“事多钱少”的合同。</strong></p><p id="372M14JJ">第一份合同，是2006年签的。这一年，NASA改变合作方式，开始转向投资私营企业。</p><p id="372M14JL">再过几年，航天飞机即将退役，到那时，NASA实在拉不下脸“拜托”俄罗斯的“联盟号”飞船送人到ISS。靠自己吧，ISS又像是“只能往里扔钱的巨大老鼠洞”。</p><p id="372M14JN"><strong>主要还是为了省钱，NASA尝试走“验收后再付款”（设计评审不达标，不保证付款）模式。</strong></p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2Fe669ca9cj00snncml0004d0006a004qg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/>NASA2008年启动了“商业轨道运输服务（COTS）”项目，主要为ISS提供商业补给服务，这种模式又很快推进到载人运输领域<br/></p><p id="372M14JS">其次是为分摊风险，COTS合同最终选了两家公司。</p><p id="372M14JU">一家就是SpaceX，成立4年，公司仅100多人，竞标拿到了2.78亿美元合同。</p><p id="372M14K0">还有一家是Rocketplane Kistler，有15年火箭发射经验，获得了2.07亿美元的合同，它的CEO是NASA的前高级经理。</p><p id="372M14K2"><strong>经过1年多的研发后，RpK未能完成阶段性目标，破产出局。</strong></p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F43fc5f7bj00snncml0007d000ce007kg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14K6">而SpaceX则从NASA那里拿到了3.96亿美元，为后续开发“龙飞船”向ISS送货提供了原始资金。</p><p id="372M14K8">谨慎的NASA永远不会把鸡蛋都在SpaceX的篮子里。</p><p id="372M14KA">吸取RpK的教训，NASA牵手轨道科学Orbital Sciences（后来被Northrop Grumman公司收购）。2008年，NASA给他们定了个“2016年前运送20吨货物到ISS”的任务。</p><p id="372M14KC">面对30多年感情的老搭档，任务与资金分配是这样的：轨道科学承担8次任务，能获得19亿美元，而SpaceX 执行12次任务，可进账16亿美元。</p><p id="372M14KE">SpaceX的任务更为艰巨，合同报价却更少。</p><p id="372M14KG">结果，与波音合作一样，出现了两幅截然不同的图景。</p><p id="372M14KI"><strong>2008年9月，猎鹰1号在第4次发射成功。死里逃生的SpaceX随后拥有了自己的发射台，并将猎鹰1升级为9。</strong></p><p id="372M14KK">接下来几年，SpaceX再接再厉。</p><p id="372M14KM">2010年，Dragon龙飞船搭载猎鹰9火箭成功升空进入地球轨道；2012年5月28日，货运版Dragon龙飞船首次将物资送往ISS；算起来，SpaceX的首次送货时间比轨道科学（2014年1月9日）早了一年多。</p><p id="372M14KO">作为对比，轨道科学的Antares火箭还曾因故坠毁，最后不得不更换火箭型号，转而使用Atlas V火箭来完成剩余的任务。</p><p id="372M14KQ">又一个5年，SpaceX足以自证能力。</p><p id="372M14KS"><strong>然而，在2020年NASA 启动的载人着陆系统（HLS）计划中，SpaceX还是获得了最低的技术和安全性评级，最少的资金支持。</strong></p><p id="372M14KU">NASA前期资助额有9.67亿美元，超一半分给了以蓝色起源Blue Origin为代表的“美国国家队”。动力系统Dynetics获得2.53亿美元，而SpaceX只拿到了1.35亿美元。</p><p id="372M14L0">不出意外，剧情重演。</p><p id="372M14L2">一年以后，SpaceX击败其他两家竞争对手，成功逆袭，<strong>赢得了建造阿尔忒弥斯3号（Artemis3）月球着陆器价值29亿美元的合同。</strong></p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F75cc699cj00snncml000yd000rs00fng.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/>载人着陆系统HLS（星舰）效果图<br/></p><p><h5>SLS烧了超300亿，Artemis计划一再被推迟</h5></p><p id="372M14L8">阿耳忒弥斯Artemis计划，NASA的载人登月任务，是2017年启动的。特朗普签的行政命令，他要保留奥巴马时代的载人航天计划。</p><p id="372M14LA"><strong>原计划是“一步一步来”：</strong></p><p id="372M14LC">2021年11月，Artemis1号实现无人飞船绕月返回；2023年，Artemis2号实现载人绕月，不登陆；2024年，Artemis3号实现载人登月；之后还有Artemis4、Artemis5、Artemis6号任务……</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F8de814bdj00snncml001vd000rs00fng.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/>Artemis3预计飞行路径<br/></p><p id="372M14LH"><strong>到今天，才完成了第一步。</strong></p><p id="372M14LJ">按照NASA最新计划表，载人绕月的Artemis2号由2024年底推迟到2025年9月，载人登月的Artemis3号由2025年底推迟到2026年9月。</p><p id="372M14LL">如果一切顺利，作为阿波罗计划的继承者，Artemis3号会这样探月：</p><p><blockquote id="372M14PP">NASA使用SLS火箭（Block 1型火箭），把宇航员们坐的“猎户座飞船”送近月轨道； SpaceX的星舰HLS，则要与SpaceX预先发射到近地轨道的“推进剂存储飞船”会合，完成空中加油；加满油的星舰HLS，会先与“猎户座飞船”会合，接到宇航员后，再从月球轨道飞往月球南极。任务持续大约6.5天，宇航员会从星舰HLS回到“猎户座飞船”，返回地球。</blockquote></p><p id="372M14LO">这就像是一个接力赛，NASA和SpaceX各有分工。</p><p id="372M14LQ">现阶段的SpaceX，<strong>最重要的是进行一次推进剂的转移测试，也叫在轨补给、太空加油。</strong></p><p id="372M14LS">今年3月，SpaceX星舰已经成功在星舰主贮箱和头部贮箱之间转移了推进剂。</p><p id="372M14LU">接下来的演示要求无疑更高。需要在两艘星舰之间进行——一艘“目标”星舰先发射入轨，三四周后一艘“追逐者”星舰再跟进。两舰对接完成，追逐者为目标星舰加油，最后脱离对接和轨道。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2Fe1a6b8cej00snncml00fdd000rs00d4g.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14M2">在轨补给、太空加油保证续航时长，是重返月球、殖民火星的关键。</p><p id="372M14M4">整体而言，SpaceX方面还算稳定。<strong>但考虑到SLS火箭的现状，Artemis3大概率还会继续推迟。</strong></p><p id="372M14M6">毕竟，延误是种常态。SLS火箭原计划2016年底进行首飞，结果至少被推迟了16次。加时近6年，终于在2022年11月实现无人驾驶，标志Artemis 1任务成功。</p><p id="372M14M8">不巧的是，猎户座飞船隔热罩又出现了腐蚀情况，这导致NASA在2023年1月将Artemis 2发射推迟近一年。</p><p id="372M14MA">猎户座飞船、和SLS火箭，执行Artemis3号计划最主要的两部分，<strong>发展都落后于计划，而且超出了预算。</strong></p><p id="372M14MC">太空发射系统SLS是2011开始的项目，主要开发Block 1、Block 1B和Block 2等型号火箭，预计到2017年，投入180 亿美元。</p><p id="372M14ME">“其中100亿美元用于SLS火箭，60亿美元用于猎户座飞船，20亿美元用于升级发射台和肯尼迪航天中心的其他设施”。</p><p id="372M14MG">2018年10月，NASA OIG报告称，截至2018年8月，波音核心级合同已占SLS总花费119亿美元的40%。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F4c7b931fj00snncml00ikd000rs00iig.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14MK">到2021年，核心级的开发预计将花费89亿美元，是最初计划金额的两倍。</p><p id="372M14MM">整个2011—2023 年，NASA在SLS开发上花了<strong>264亿美元</strong>。以2024年的物价来算，这些钱就相当于320亿美元。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F5868247bj00snncml00f1d000rs00kgg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14MQ">实在是太烧钱了。当然，<strong>预算超支是个老问题了。</strong></p><p id="372M14MS">SLS，作为战神五号运载火箭的转世，最早可以追溯到星座计划。星座计划由2004年美国总统乔治·W·布什颁布，支持国际空间站、重返月球、前往火星甚至更远的地方。</p><p id="372M14MU">同样是因为资金严重不足，最后被奥巴马搁置了。整个2010年，月球计划已经被定性“死亡”。</p><p id="372M14N0">所幸不到一年时间，载人航天计划又被捡起来。国会拨巨资卷土重来，NASA左手拉着军工巨头，右手牵着私营企业，继续开发曾被取消的猎户座飞船，设计新一代太空发射系统SLS。</p><p><h5>先验收再付款，NASA要被盘活了？</h5></p><p id="372M14N3">SLS项目曾集万千宠爱于一身。</p><p id="372M14N5">NASA牵头，波音公司负责设计、开发、测试和生产核心级和上面级，诺斯罗普·格鲁门公司提供固体火箭助推器。现如今似乎渐渐失去了竞争优势。</p><p id="372M14N7"><strong>在更便宜、可重复使用火箭的映衬下，连潜在客户的美国国防部（DoD）都不愿意采购了。</strong></p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F18f79b44j00snncml0018d000rs006ig.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14NB">问题出在哪？</p><p id="372M14ND">NASA下的任务，波音和诺斯罗普·格鲁门底下又分给私人承包商和分包商。无独有偶，“猎户座”飞船的主要承包商洛克希德·马丁公司，也会<strong>层层下放指标</strong>。</p><p id="372M14NF"><strong>研发生产链条越拉越长，文件工作越来越多，决策过程越来越慢。</strong>承包商一旦疏于纠正，计划成本超支和时间延迟就不足为奇。</p><p id="372M14NH">尤其在NASA还明显袒护一些“老伙计“的情况下，管理氛围变得更加微妙。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F2aff4c39j00snncml00ctd000rs00tcg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/>今年9月马斯克在X怒怼FAA陷入“卡夫卡式”的官僚主义扼杀国家太空计划<br/></p><p id="372M14NM">明明波音出问题，反过来罚SpaceX 63.3万美元，更破防的，NASA还不站出来主持公道。</p><p id="372M14NO">毕竟都是合作了几十年的老牌企业，又牵涉政党利益纷争，一时半会张不开口也能理解。</p><p id="372M14NQ"><strong>但马斯克不接受，发帖说受够了，局长应该离职，并向国会控诉FAA乱作为。</strong></p><p id="372M14NS">这非常马斯克。为了殖民火星，他不止一次对抗不公之举。</p><p id="372M14NU">最早的一次正面开杠，可以追溯到2004年2月。</p><p id="372M14O0">当年的NASA未经公开竞标，直接将价值超2亿美元的合同给了SpaceX的竞争对手RpK时，马斯克不顾旁人劝说，坚定起诉。</p><p id="372M14O2">冒着可能与NASA翻脸的风险，马斯克重申了自己的立场：NASA应该鼓励创新而非支持某些公司。</p><p id="372M14O4"><strong>SpaceX最终胜诉，NASA被法院要求开放竞标。</strong></p><p id="372M14O6">修订后的项目名称就是商业轨道运输服务（COTS），SpaceX凭实力赢得了其中很大一部分订单。</p><p id="372M14O8">也是这个时候开始。整个局面改变了。NASA在航天领域合作模式上也不一样了。</p><p id="372M14OA"><strong>过去，走“成本加成”模式，先支付再验收。只要签下合同，费用通常不断增加。</strong></p><p id="372M14OC">承包商不仅能报销与合同相关的所有直接和间接成本，如材料、人工、设备及管理费用，还能获得合同金额固定比例的预设利润。</p><p id="372M14OE">看似爽快的慷慨扶持，其实最大程度阻碍了创新。如果一份成本加成合同你永远完不成，承包商几乎没有动力推进工期、削减成本。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F0922673aj00snncml00fzd000rs00eeg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14OI">以洛克希德·马丁公司和波音公司的合资企业ULA为例，他们到2017年都在依赖从俄罗斯进口发动机。</p><p id="372M14OK">“波音公司和洛克希德·马丁公司只想稳稳当当地吃成本加成合同的老本。”马斯克曾在自传中提到：“在这种体制机制下，人类不可能飞到火星去。”</p><p id="372M14OM">为此，SpaceX提出了一种新的方式，那就是NASA验收后再付款。</p><p id="372M14OO"><strong>承包商承担风险自筹资金做项目，只有当他们真的完成任务后，才能收到合同规定的钱。</strong></p><p id="372M14OQ">以结果为导向，减少干预，赋予合作伙伴更大的设计和制造自主权，登月计划开始奏效了。</p><p id="372M14OS">NASA也没料到，2006年雇佣的“临时工”竟然一路狂飙，击败众多老牌企业，日渐享有主角光环。</p><p id="372M14OU">尤其在中国宣布2030年登月球之时，SpaceX甚至被视作是拯救美国太空事业的最后希望。</p><p id="372M14P0">“筷子夹火箭”的上演，似乎已经在预示，即便没有NASA的重视，马斯克有朝一日也会把人类送上火星了。</p><p id="372M14P2">所以说，有了Space X，还看NASA做啥？</p><p id="372M14P4">这样想，NASA会委屈的。</p><p id="372M14P6">你看《NASA Fiscal Year 2024 Spending Plan》，<strong>NASA要做的远不止深空探索。</strong>（虎嗅注：以下三个图表中各项费用单位均应为百万美元，具体项目名称可能因机翻导致稍有出入，仅作示意；表头可参照表2）</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F1fa0f6c7j00snncml002dd000rs00cng.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14PA"><strong>还有各种科学研究。</strong></p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2F2c04e615j00snncml009ed000rs00ncg.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14PE">以及技术开发、航空研究、STEM教育、安全与安保、设施建设与环境合规等项目。</p><p class="f_center"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2024%2F1128%2Fd4c06098j00snncml006nd000rs00eig.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg"/><br/></p><p id="372M14PI"><strong>很多项目通常没有直接商业利益，需要公共资金和长期投资。</strong></p><p id="372M14PK">这些，都只有NASA能做。</p><p id="372M14PM">本文来自微信公众号：脱落酸，作者：脱落酸，编辑：叶子</p><p id="372M14PN">本内容为作者独立观点，不代表虎嗅立场。未经允许不得转载，授权事宜请联系 hezuo@huxiu.com</p> </div> <div class="post_statement"> <span class="bg"></span> <p>特别声明：以上内容(如有图片或视频亦包括在内)为自媒体平台“网易号”用户上传并发布，本平台仅提供信息存储服务。</p> <p>Notice: The content above (including the pictures and videos if any) is uploaded and posted by a user of NetEase Hao, which is a social media platform 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