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aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Venäjä" class="aw-l7odld jXfkxq">Venäjä</a></div><h1 class="sc-aXZVg cZXpWU yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--1">Venäjän talous jatkaa kasvussa – pelkät kasvuluvut antavat sotamaan taloudesta kuitenkin liian ruusuisen kuvan</h1><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-5vja16 jxdWmn eeXVLF yle__article__paragraph">Venäjän talous kasvaa, mutta vauhti hidastuu, ennustaa Suomen Pankin tutkimuslaitos BOFIT.</p><div class="aw-e30oo3 blLbha"></div><figure class="aw-u5oz0a clzEhy yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20080770","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627/https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","copyrightHolder":"Miku Huttunen / Yle","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-1262357660173fd527ef","keywords":"Venäjä,talouskasvu,talous,Venäjän talous,taloudelliset ennusteet"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic jZEjMr"><div class="aw-1qvmjke bKIcxT"><div class="aw-1njknqq euollB"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1077,w_1916,x_1099,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711374330/39-1262357660173fd527ef 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1077,w_1916,x_1099,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711374330/39-1262357660173fd527ef 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1077,w_1916,x_1099,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_357,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711374330/39-1262357660173fd527ef 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1077,w_1916,x_1099,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_357,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711374330/39-1262357660173fd527ef 1x"/><img alt="Venäjän talouskasvu vuositasolla vuodesta 2020 alkaen." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_1077,w_1916,x_1099,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1711374330/39-1262357660173fd527ef" class="aw-1l9m598 bTKagC"/></picture></div><div class="aw-45s348 glxCAO"><button aria-disabled="false" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonSecondary-sc-17sr1bx-2 blJlbw iLYbQX"><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 kWJvkV yds-button__content">Avaa kuvien katselu</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 iEoONW"><span> Kuva: Miku Huttunen / Yle</span></figcaption></figure><div class="aw-1wk2icm iaIVgA"><div class="aw-qww0lc eFtfQt"><div class="aw-x5rn7a iKNQRH"><span class="aw-z7z0zi hEWAhM">Petteri Lindholm</span></div></div></div><div class="aw-1hwlbbb iumvhG"><div class="aw-64d2lh cPAYLb"><div class="aw-kzjed4 dgiUVP yle__article__date"><time class="aw-lsqctp jPSFYl yle__article__date--published" datetime="2024-03-25T17:33:10+02:00">17:33</time></div></div><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627/https://yle.onelink.me/46xJ/07zyq6zz?deep_link_sub1=74-20080770" class="aw-pqa0kd GtYAc">Avaa Yle-sovelluksessa<svg width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M15 2a1 1 0 1 0 0 2h3.586l-9.293 9.293a1 1 0 1 0 1.414 1.414L20 5.414V9a1 1 0 1 0 2 0V3a1 1 0 0 0-1-1h-6ZM5 7a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v11a1 1 0 0 0 1 1h11a1 1 0 0 0 1-1v-6a1 1 0 0 1 2 0v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H5a3 3 0 0 1-3-3V8a3 3 0 0 1 3-3h6a1 1 0 1 1 0 2H5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></a><div class="aw-itub5i eehAxh"><div><button aria-label="Jaa artikkeli" aria-disabled="false" id="share-menu-button" aria-haspopup="true" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonText-sc-17sr1bx-3 jrqhnK kvhUhF"><span class="Buttonstyles__iconSize-sc-17sr1bx-4 Buttonstyles__IconWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-6 cazOWd dPcqZv yds-button__icon"><svg width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" aria-hidden="true" class="aw-wi5224 fZrvxl"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M12.43 3.078a1 1 0 0 1 1.087.207l8.182 8a1 1 0 0 1 0 1.43l-8.182 8a1 1 0 0 1-1.7-.715v-3.855h-.008c-1.968.029-3.972.988-5.827 2.417L3.61 20.389a1 1 0 0 1-1.592-.981l.5-2.597.014-.062c.23-.883.58-1.911.986-2.865.4-.94.88-1.876 1.387-2.532.964-1.246 2.07-2.138 3.405-2.709 1.057-.45 2.219-.684 3.508-.76V4a1 1 0 0 1 .612-.922Zm1.388 3.298v3.48h-1c-1.529 0-2.727.202-3.722.627-.984.42-1.826 1.081-2.609 2.093-.351.454-.753 1.206-1.129 2.09a19.46 19.46 0 0 0-.874 2.525l.277-.213c2.023-1.559 4.445-2.798 7.028-2.833h2.029v3.479L19.57 12l-5.752-5.624Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></span><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 WDnuQ yds-button__text">Jaa</span></button></div></div></div></header><section class="yle__article__content"><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Venäjän talous jatkaa kasvamistaan, ennustaa Suomen Pankin nousevien talouksien tutkimuslaitos BOFIT.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Lännessä Venäjän talouskasvua harmitellaan, koska länsi yrittää vaikeuttaa Venäjän sotatoimia järeillä talouspakotteilla. Harmitusta lisää se, että Venäjän suurhyökkäyksen jälkeen maan talouden odotettiin jopa romahtavan.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Pelkkien kasvulukujen tuijottaminen antaa kuitenkin valheellisen valoisan kuvan Venäjän talouskehityksestä ainakin kolmesta syystä.</p><div class="aw-1dnbj3b fxARb yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="8ac5f7a1-f77e-42ba-8faa-3b4c5f340e13" data-type="interactive" data-title=""></div> </div><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Viime vuoden kasvu oli vielä odotettua nopeampaa, mutta nyt vauhti hidastuu.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Kuluvalle vuodelle BOFIT ennustaa kahden prosentin kasvua ja seuraaville kahdelle vuodelle yhden prosentin kasvua.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Tulevina vuosina Venäjän talouskasvu jatkuu hitaampana ja valtiovetoisena. Kasvu jarruttaa lähelle Venäjän pitkän aikavälin potentiaalista kasvua, joka on heikentynyt hyökkäyssodan takia, sanoo BOFIT:n vanhempi ekonomisti <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Sinikka Parviainen</strong>.</p><h2 class="sc-gEvEer dSgPhs yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">1. Kasvu tulee etupäässä sotakoneista</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Talouskasvua mitataan bruttokansantuotteen vuosimuutoksena. Se kertoo yksinkertaisuudessaan sen, kuinka paljon maassa on tuotettu tavaroita ja palveluita.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Sotaa käyvän maan tapauksessa on olennaista katsoa, mistä kasvu on peräisin.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Itsevaltaisen presidentti <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Vladimir Putinin</strong> Venäjällä kasvu tulee etenkin siitä, että valtio upottaa rahaa pommeihin, sotakoneisiin ja muihin sotamenoihin.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Hyökkäyssota luo kysyntää kotimaisille markkinoille valtavien valtionhankintojen myötä, BOFIT:n ennusteessa todetaan.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Investoinnit sotakalustoon tuovat kyllä työpaikkoja, mutta kansalaisten hyvinvointia ohjukset ja tykit eivät paranna.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Rahan virtaaminen sotatoimiin näkyy myös valtion budjetissa. Ensi vuoden budjetissa sotamenot ovat ensi kertaa Venäjän historiassa suuremmat kuin sosiaalimenot.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Toinen kasvun ajuri on ollut kotimainen kulutus, jota ovat tukeneet suuret palkankorotukset. Ne koituvat aidoksi hyödyksi kansalaisille.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Palkankorotuksetkin ovat suurimpia juuri sotateollisuudessa. Sotatoimiin osallistuville taas maksetaan paljon keskimääräistä enemmän palkkaa ja korvauksia.</p><h2 class="sc-gEvEer dSgPhs yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">2. Tulevan kasvun eväät heikkenevät</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Nopean kasvun jatkuminen tulevina vuosina on BOFIT:n mukaan hyvin epätodennäköistä. Talous on entistä riippuvaisempaa valtion runsaasta kulutuksesta, jota Venäjä ei BOFIT:n arvion mukaan kykene ylläpitämään nykyisellään.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Budjettisuunnitelmien perusteella julkisen sektorin kysyntä laskee vuonna 2025, ja yksityiset markkinaehtoiset investoinnit tuskin kompensoivat vähenemistä, ennustessa todetaan.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Yksityiselle sektorille sota ja pakotteet ovat olleet karvasta kalkkia.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Finanssipakotteet ovat sulkeneet rahoituskanavat ulkomailta, ja peräti 16 prosentin korkotaso on tehnyt kotimaisesta rahoituksesta huippukallista. Lännen vientipakotteet vaikeuttavat koneiden, laitteiden ja komponenttien hankkimista. Lisäksi maasta on paennut satoja tuhansia työntekijöitä, jotka ovat kaikkein korkeimmin koulutettuja ja tärkeimpiä tulevalle kasvulle.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Investoinnit esimerkiksi tuotantolinjoihin tai koulutukseen loisivat edellytyksiä tulevalle kasvulle. Suurin osa Venäjän investoinneista kohdistuu kuitenkin lähivuosina sotateollisuuteen.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Sotateollisuuden tuottamat hyödykkeet tuhoutuvat nopeasti eivätkä lisää talouden tuotantokapasiteettia, BOFIT:n ennusteessa kirjoitetaan.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Yksi suurimmista pullonkauloista Venäjän kasvulle on vaikea työvoimapula, joka johtuu ennen kaikkea heikosta väestönkehityksestä: työikäisen väestön määrä on supistunut jo yli 15 vuotta.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Venäjällä olisi ollut demografinen (väestöllinen) kriisi joka tapauksessa, ja sota on pahentanut tilannetta entisestään, Parviainen toteaa.</p><h2 class="sc-gEvEer dSgPhs yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">3. Sota ja pakotteet leikkaavat yhä kasvua</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Monet ovat tulkinneet, että talouspakotteet eivät tehoa, kun Venäjän talous kasvaa. Vaikka sota ja pakotteet eivät romahduttaneet Venäjän taloutta, ne ovat kuitenkin hidastaneet sen kasvua tuntuvasti.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Parviaisen mukaan ne muun muassa hidastavat tuottavuuskasvua, kun vientirajoitukset estävät komponenttien ja koneiden tuonnin. Vientimarkkinat taas ovat jäissä, ja Venäjä on eristäytynyt entisestään muusta maailmasta.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Viennin osuus BKT:sta on laskenut tilastohistorian alhaisimmalle tasolle, Parviainen sanoo.</p><div class="aw-1dnbj3b fxARb yle__article__infogram"> <div class="infogram-embed" data-id="8ad567ad-2b36-4c56-a22d-97a2c028aa20" data-type="interactive" data-title=""></div> </div><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Venäjän tärkein tulonlähde on yhä öljy. Se menee kaupaksi pakotteista huolimatta.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Lännen asettama hintakatto venäläisöljylle rajoitti Venäjän vientituloja jonkin aikaa, mutta maa oppi nopeasti kiertämään pakotetta. Se näkyy <a class="aw-iao6s4 drtaeR yle__article__link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627/https://yle.fi/a/74-20054791" role="link">Suomenlahdella asti hämärinä öljytankkereina</a>, joiden kunnosta ja turvallisuudesta ei juuri tiedetä.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Pakotteet leikkaavat silti edelleen myös Venäjän öljynvientituloja, kun harvat jäljellä olevat ostajat pääsevät sanelemaan hintoja. BOFIT kertoo, että venäläinen Urals-öljy on tynnyriltä 14 dollaria halvempaa kuin Pohjanmeren Brent-öljy. Ennen sotaa hintaero oli pari dollaria.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph"><strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Miten länsi voisi tehostaa Venäjä-pakotteita?</strong></p><figure class="aw-u5oz0a crkERF yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20080770","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627/https://schema.org","video":{"@type":"VideoObject","description":"Mitä keinoja lännellä on tehostaa Venäjän talouspakotteita, Suomen Pankin BOFIT-tutkimuslaitoksen vanhempi ekonomisti Sinikka Parviainen? ","name":"Suomen Pankin ekonomisti arvioi, miten länsi voi tiivistää Venäjän talouspakotteita","thumbnailUrl":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-42973859c268d07fd2f","uploadDate":"2024-03-25T16:28:28+02:00"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic ircCun"><div><div data-testid="video-player" class="aw-1kfkhk6 kyBcqJ"></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 iEoONW"><span>Mitä keinoja lännellä on tehostaa Venäjän talouspakotteita, Suomen Pankin BOFIT-tutkimuslaitoksen vanhempi ekonomisti Sinikka Parviainen? </span></figcaption></figure><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph"><em class="aw-18vh2pl bZqHKZ yle__article__emphasis">Voit keskustella aiheesta 25. maaliskuuta kello 23 asti.</em></p></section><footer class="yle__article__footer"><h2 class="aw-zh6d69 dMYkJU">Aiheesta enemmän: Paketissa 2 linkkiä</h2><h2 class="sc-eqUAAy dUJkWc yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--3" aria-hidden="true">Aiheesta enemmän</h2><div class="yle__article__links" role="list" aria-label="Aiheesta enemmän"><div role="listitem" class="aw-124ec9l cFgRwb"><div class="aw-yq4wj5 hkKela"><div class="aw-fou4nx hULxUh"><div class="aw-aqrehu kskGQO"><div class="aw-ej1jxx Vjwex"><a href="/web/20240325163627/https://yle.fi/t/18-334977/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Venäjän hyökkäys" class="aw-l7odld jXfkxq">Venäjän hyökkäys</a></div><h3 class="aw-x9ikft cGmEmT"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627/https://yle.fi/a/74-20077983" class="aw-3ocnud eBKakF">Venäjän öljyrahasto hupenee, nykytahdilla käyttövarat loppuvat noin vuoden kuluttua – se on ja ei ole iso juttu, sanoo tutkija</a></h3><time class="aw-4gocmc guzJZN">7.3.</time></div></div><div class="aw-vhyz8i mQzOb"><div class="aw-8sjfvz juaHCW"><div class="aw-1njknqq euollB"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125086965e037c7bfbf4 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.0,c_fill,g_faces,h_104,w_104/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125086965e037c7bfbf4 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125086965e037c7bfbf4 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240325163627im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_110,w_196/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125086965e037c7bfbf4 1x"/><img alt="Putin seisoo mustassa päällystakissa, kravatti kaulassaan seppeleen edessä. 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Harmitusta lisää se, että Venäjän suurhyökkäyksen jälkeen maan talouden odotettiin jopa romahtavan.","type":"text"},{"text":"Pelkkien kasvulukujen tuijottaminen antaa kuitenkin valheellisen valoisan kuvan Venäjän talouskehityksestä ainakin kolmesta syystä.","type":"text"},{"infogramId":"8ac5f7a1-f77e-42ba-8faa-3b4c5f340e13","type":"infogram"},{"text":"Viime vuoden kasvu oli vielä odotettua nopeampaa, mutta nyt vauhti hidastuu.","type":"text"},{"text":"Kuluvalle vuodelle BOFIT ennustaa kahden prosentin kasvua ja seuraaville kahdelle vuodelle yhden prosentin kasvua.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Tulevina vuosina Venäjän talouskasvu jatkuu hitaampana ja valtiovetoisena. Kasvu jarruttaa lähelle Venäjän pitkän aikavälin potentiaalista kasvua, joka on heikentynyt hyökkäyssodan takia, sanoo BOFIT:n vanhempi ekonomisti **Sinikka Parviainen**.","type":"text"},{"text":"1. Kasvu tulee etupäässä sotakoneista","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Talouskasvua mitataan bruttokansantuotteen vuosimuutoksena. Se kertoo yksinkertaisuudessaan sen, kuinka paljon maassa on tuotettu tavaroita ja palveluita.","type":"text"},{"text":"Sotaa käyvän maan tapauksessa on olennaista katsoa, mistä kasvu on peräisin.","type":"text"},{"text":"Itsevaltaisen presidentti **Vladimir Putinin** Venäjällä kasvu tulee etenkin siitä, että valtio upottaa rahaa pommeihin, sotakoneisiin ja muihin sotamenoihin.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Hyökkäyssota luo kysyntää kotimaisille markkinoille valtavien valtionhankintojen myötä, BOFIT:n ennusteessa todetaan.","type":"text"},{"text":"Investoinnit sotakalustoon tuovat kyllä työpaikkoja, mutta kansalaisten hyvinvointia ohjukset ja tykit eivät paranna.","type":"text"},{"text":"Rahan virtaaminen sotatoimiin näkyy myös valtion budjetissa. Ensi vuoden budjetissa sotamenot ovat ensi kertaa Venäjän historiassa suuremmat kuin sosiaalimenot.","type":"text"},{"text":"Toinen kasvun ajuri on ollut kotimainen kulutus, jota ovat tukeneet suuret palkankorotukset. Ne koituvat aidoksi hyödyksi kansalaisille.","type":"text"},{"text":"Palkankorotuksetkin ovat suurimpia juuri sotateollisuudessa. Sotatoimiin osallistuville taas maksetaan paljon keskimääräistä enemmän palkkaa ja korvauksia.","type":"text"},{"text":"2. Tulevan kasvun eväät heikkenevät","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Nopean kasvun jatkuminen tulevina vuosina on BOFIT:n mukaan hyvin epätodennäköistä. Talous on entistä riippuvaisempaa valtion runsaasta kulutuksesta, jota Venäjä ei BOFIT:n arvion mukaan kykene ylläpitämään nykyisellään.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Budjettisuunnitelmien perusteella julkisen sektorin kysyntä laskee vuonna 2025, ja yksityiset markkinaehtoiset investoinnit tuskin kompensoivat vähenemistä, ennustessa todetaan.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yksityiselle sektorille sota ja pakotteet ovat olleet karvasta kalkkia.","type":"text"},{"text":"Finanssipakotteet ovat sulkeneet rahoituskanavat ulkomailta, ja peräti 16 prosentin korkotaso on tehnyt kotimaisesta rahoituksesta huippukallista. Lännen vientipakotteet vaikeuttavat koneiden, laitteiden ja komponenttien hankkimista. Lisäksi maasta on paennut satoja tuhansia työntekijöitä, jotka ovat kaikkein korkeimmin koulutettuja ja tärkeimpiä tulevalle kasvulle.","type":"text"},{"text":"Investoinnit esimerkiksi tuotantolinjoihin tai koulutukseen loisivat edellytyksiä tulevalle kasvulle. Suurin osa Venäjän investoinneista kohdistuu kuitenkin lähivuosina sotateollisuuteen.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Sotateollisuuden tuottamat hyödykkeet tuhoutuvat nopeasti eivätkä lisää talouden tuotantokapasiteettia, BOFIT:n ennusteessa kirjoitetaan.","type":"text"},{"text":"Yksi suurimmista pullonkauloista Venäjän kasvulle on vaikea työvoimapula, joka johtuu ennen kaikkea heikosta väestönkehityksestä: työikäisen väestön määrä on supistunut jo yli 15 vuotta.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Venäjällä olisi ollut demografinen (väestöllinen) kriisi joka tapauksessa, ja sota on pahentanut tilannetta entisestään, Parviainen toteaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"3. Sota ja pakotteet leikkaavat yhä kasvua","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Monet ovat tulkinneet, että talouspakotteet eivät tehoa, kun Venäjän talous kasvaa. Vaikka sota ja pakotteet eivät romahduttaneet Venäjän taloutta, ne ovat kuitenkin hidastaneet sen kasvua tuntuvasti.","type":"text"},{"text":"Parviaisen mukaan ne muun muassa hidastavat tuottavuuskasvua, kun vientirajoitukset estävät komponenttien ja koneiden tuonnin. Vientimarkkinat taas ovat jäissä, ja Venäjä on eristäytynyt entisestään muusta maailmasta.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Viennin osuus BKT:sta on laskenut tilastohistorian alhaisimmalle tasolle, Parviainen sanoo.","type":"text"},{"infogramId":"8ad567ad-2b36-4c56-a22d-97a2c028aa20","type":"infogram"},{"text":"Venäjän tärkein tulonlähde on yhä öljy. Se menee kaupaksi pakotteista huolimatta.","type":"text"},{"text":"Lännen asettama hintakatto venäläisöljylle rajoitti Venäjän vientituloja jonkin aikaa, mutta maa oppi nopeasti kiertämään pakotetta. Se näkyy [Suomenlahdella asti hämärinä öljytankkereina](https:\u002F\u002Fyle.fi\u002Fa\u002F74-20054791), joiden kunnosta ja turvallisuudesta ei juuri tiedetä.","type":"text"},{"text":"Pakotteet leikkaavat silti edelleen myös Venäjän öljynvientituloja, kun harvat jäljellä olevat ostajat pääsevät sanelemaan hintoja. BOFIT kertoo, että venäläinen Urals-öljy on tynnyriltä 14 dollaria halvempaa kuin Pohjanmeren Brent-öljy. Ennen sotaa hintaero oli pari dollaria.","type":"text"},{"text":"**Miten länsi voisi tehostaa Venäjä-pakotteita?**","type":"text"},{"caption":"Mitä keinoja lännellä on tehostaa Venäjän talouspakotteita, Suomen Pankin BOFIT-tutkimuslaitoksen vanhempi ekonomisti Sinikka Parviainen? 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