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<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en-GB"> <head> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="profile" href="https://gmpg.org/xfn/11"> <meta name='robots' content='index, follow, max-image-preview:large, max-snippet:-1, max-video-preview:-1' /> <style>img:is([sizes="auto" i], [sizes^="auto," i]) { contain-intrinsic-size: 3000px 1500px }</style>  <title>The epistemic challenge to longtermism - Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University) - Global Priorities Institute</title> <meta name="description" content="Longtermism holds that what we ought to do is mainly determined by effects on the far future. A natural objection is that these effects may be nearly impossible to predict—perhaps so close to impossible that, despite the astronomical importance of the far future, the expected value of our present options is mainly determined by short-term considerations. This paper aims to precisify and evaluate (a version of) this epistemic objection. To that end, I develop two simple models for comparing “longtermist” and “short-termist” interventions, incorporating the idea that, as we look further into the future, the eﬀects of any present intervention become progressively harder to predict. These models yield mixed conclusions: If we simply aim to maximize expected value, and don’t mind premising our choices on minuscule probabilities of astronomical payoﬀs, the case for longtermism looks robust. But on some prima facie plausible empirical worldviews, the expectational superiority of longtermist interventions depends heavily on these “Pascalian” probabilities. So the case for longtermism may depend either on plausible but non-obvious empirical claims or on a tolerance for Pascalian fanaticism." /> <link rel="canonical" href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/" /> <meta property="og:locale" content="en_GB" /> <meta property="og:type" content="article" /> <meta property="og:title" content="The epistemic challenge to longtermism - Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University) - Global Priorities Institute" /> <meta property="og:description" content="Longtermism holds that what we ought to do is mainly determined by effects on the far future. A natural objection is that these effects may be nearly impossible to predict—perhaps so close to impossible that, despite the astronomical importance of the far future, the expected value of our present options is mainly determined by short-term considerations. This paper aims to precisify and evaluate (a version of) this epistemic objection. To that end, I develop two simple models for comparing “longtermist” and “short-termist” interventions, incorporating the idea that, as we look further into the future, the eﬀects of any present intervention become progressively harder to predict. These models yield mixed conclusions: If we simply aim to maximize expected value, and don’t mind premising our choices on minuscule probabilities of astronomical payoﬀs, the case for longtermism looks robust. But on some prima facie plausible empirical worldviews, the expectational superiority of longtermist interventions depends heavily on these “Pascalian” probabilities. So the case for longtermism may depend either on plausible but non-obvious empirical claims or on a tolerance for Pascalian fanaticism." /> <meta property="og:url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/" /> <meta property="og:site_name" content="Global Priorities Institute" /> <meta property="article:published_time" content="2022-04-03T10:35:57+00:00" /> <meta property="article:modified_time" content="2024-02-29T16:54:35+00:00" /> <meta property="og:image" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06.png" /> <meta property="og:image:width" content="688" /> <meta property="og:image:height" content="971" /> <meta property="og:image:type" content="image/png" /> <meta name="author" content="admin" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:label1" content="Written by" /> <meta name="twitter:data1" content="admin" /> <meta name="twitter:label2" content="Estimated reading time" /> <meta name="twitter:data2" content="3 minutes" /> <script type="application/ld+json" class="yoast-schema-graph">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/#/schema/person/9180a127753ec10f82b924e2d1dd3375"},"headline":"The epistemic challenge to longtermism – Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)","datePublished":"2022-04-03T10:35:57+00:00","dateModified":"2024-02-29T16:54:35+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/"},"wordCount":238,"publisher":{"@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06.png","articleSection":["Featured News","Papers","Philosophy","Published Papers","Working Papers"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/","url":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/","name":"The epistemic challenge to longtermism - Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University) - Global Priorities Institute","isPartOf":{"@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06.png","datePublished":"2022-04-03T10:35:57+00:00","dateModified":"2024-02-29T16:54:35+00:00","description":"Longtermism holds that what we ought to do is mainly determined by effects on the far future. 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fl-builder-content-primary fl-builder-global-templates-locked" data-post-id="2886"><div class="fl-row fl-row-full-width fl-row-bg-none fl-node-5d5a82e13578d fl-row-default-height fl-row-align-center" data-node="5d5a82e13578d"> <div class="fl-row-content-wrap"> <div class="fl-row-content fl-row-full-width fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5d84f7acc976f" data-node="5d84f7acc976f"> <div class="fl-col fl-node-5d889d3b50c4e fl-col-small" data-node="5d889d3b50c4e"> <div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"><div class="fl-module fl-module-photo fl-node-5d889d3b50536" data-node="5d889d3b50536"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-photo fl-photo-align-center" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject"> <div class="fl-photo-content fl-photo-img-png"> <a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Tarsney-Epistemic-Challenge-to-Longtermism.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" itemprop="url"> <img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" alt="tarsney-oct2019" itemprop="image" height="300" width="213" title="tarsney-oct2019" data-srcset="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06-213x300.png 213w, https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06.png 688w" data-src="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06-213x300.png" data-sizes="(max-width: 213px) 100vw, 213px" class="fl-photo-img wp-image-2887 size-medium lazyload" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" /><noscript><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="fl-photo-img wp-image-2887 size-medium" src="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06-213x300.png" alt="tarsney-oct2019" itemprop="image" height="300" width="213" title="tarsney-oct2019" srcset="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06-213x300.png 213w, https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2019-10-01-12.30.06.png 688w" sizes="(max-width: 213px) 100vw, 213px" /></noscript> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-col fl-node-5d84f7acc9d30 fl-col-has-cols" data-node="5d84f7acc9d30"> <div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"><div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text fl-node-5d84f7acc939c" data-node="5d84f7acc939c"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-rich-text"> <h1><strong>The epistemic challenge to longtermism</strong></h1> <h2>Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)</h2> <p>GPI Working Paper No. 3-2022, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-023-04153-y">published in <em>Synthese</em></a></p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5d8a445108999 fl-col-group-nested" data-node="5d8a445108999"> <div class="fl-col fl-node-5d8a4451091a9 fl-col-small" data-node="5d8a4451091a9"> <div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"><div class="fl-module fl-module-button fl-node-5d8a449704731" data-node="5d8a449704731"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-button-wrap fl-button-width-auto fl-button-left"> <a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Tarsney-Epistemic-Challenge-to-Longtermism.pdf" target="_blank" class="fl-button" rel="noopener" > <span class="fl-button-text">PDF Download</span> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-col fl-node-5dc18cbfd85b3" data-node="5dc18cbfd85b3"> <div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"><div class="fl-module fl-module-button fl-node-5dc18cbfd8273" data-node="5dc18cbfd8273"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-button-wrap fl-button-width-auto fl-button-left"> <a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-j-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/" target="_blank" class="fl-button" rel="noopener" > <span class="fl-button-text">Watch the talk</span> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-module fl-module-accordion fl-node-5ee0dd1935d9e" data-node="5ee0dd1935d9e"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-accordion fl-accordion-small fl-accordion-collapse" role="tablist"> <div class="fl-accordion-item "> <div class="fl-accordion-button" id="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-tab-0" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-panel-0" aria-expanded="false" role="tab" tabindex="0"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" id="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-label-0" class="fl-accordion-button-label" tabindex="0" aria-controls="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-panel-0">Previous versions (outdated; included here solely for reference purposes)</a> <a href="#" id="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-icon-0" class="fl-accordion-button-icon" tabindex="-1" aria-controls="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-panel-0"><i class="fl-accordion-button-icon fl-accordion-button-icon-right fas fa-plus"><span class="sr-only">Expand</span></i></a> </div> <div class="fl-accordion-content fl-clearfix" id="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-panel-0" aria-labelledby="fl-accordion-5ee0dd1935d9e-tab-0" aria-hidden="true" role="tabpanel" aria-live="polite"> <p><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/GPI-research-agenda-version-2.1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GPI Research Agenda - Version 2.1 (October 2020)</a></p> <p><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/gpi-research-agenda-201902.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GPI Research Agenda - Version 2.0 (February 2019)</a></p> <p><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/GPI-Research-Agenda-December-2017.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GPI Research Agenda - Version 1.0 (December 2017)</a></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5d8c839322acd" data-node="5d8c839322acd"> <div class="fl-col fl-node-5d8c8393230db" data-node="5d8c8393230db"> <div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"><div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text fl-node-5d8c83932263e" data-node="5d8c83932263e"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-rich-text"> <div class="page" title="Page 2"> <div class="layoutArea"> <div class="column"> <p><em>Longtermists</em> claim that what we ought to do is mainly determined by how our actions might affect the very long-run future. A natural objection to longtermism is that these effects may be nearly impossible to predict— perhaps so close to impossible that, despite the astronomical importance of the far future, the expected value of our present actions is mainly determined by near-term considerations. This paper aims to precisify and evaluate one version of this epistemic objection to longtermism. To that end, I develop two simple models for comparing ‘longtermist’ and ‘neartermist’ interventions, incorporating the idea that it is harder to make a predictable difference to the further future. These models yield mixed conclusions: if we simply aim to maximize expected value, and don’t mind premising our choices on minuscule probabilities of astronomical payoffs, the case for longtermism looks robust. But on some <em>prima facie</em> plausible empirical worldviews, the expectational superiority of longtermist interventions depends heavily on these ‘Pascalian’ probabilities. So the case for longtermism may depend either on plausible but non-obvious empirical claims or on a tolerance for Pascalian fanaticism.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5d5a82f883cbe" data-node="5d5a82f883cbe"> <div class="fl-col fl-node-5d5a82f88415e" data-node="5d5a82f88415e"> <div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"><div class="fl-module fl-module-separator fl-node-5d5a8399946be" data-node="5d5a8399946be"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-separator"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-col-group fl-node-5d5a8356d9117" data-node="5d5a8356d9117"> <div class="fl-col fl-node-5d5a8356d9a63" data-node="5d5a8356d9a63"> <div class="fl-col-content fl-node-content"><div class="fl-module fl-module-rich-text fl-node-5d5a83c35c042" data-node="5d5a83c35c042"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-rich-text"> <h2>Other working papers</h2> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-module fl-module-post-grid fl-node-5d5a8356d8682" data-node="5d5a8356d8682"> <div class="fl-module-content fl-node-content"> <div class="fl-post-grid" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="https://schema.org/Blog"> <div class="fl-post-column"> <div class="fl-post-grid-post fl-post-align-default post-7112 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-papers category-philosophy category-published category-working" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/BlogPosting"> <meta itemscope itemprop="mainEntityOfPage" itemtype="https://schema.org/WebPage" itemid="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/respect-for-others-risk-attitudes-and-the-long-run-future-andreas-mogensen/" content="Respect for others’ risk attitudes and the long-run future – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)" /><meta itemprop="datePublished" content="2022-12-02" /><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2024-03-05" /><div itemprop="publisher" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Organization"><meta itemprop="name" content="Global Priorities Institute"><div itemprop="logo" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/cropped-gpi_website_logo-1.png"></div></div><div itemscope itemprop="author" itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/author/christian-panzerphilosophy-ox-ac-uk/" /><meta itemprop="name" content="Christian Panzer" /></div><div itemscope itemprop="image" itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Respect-for-others-risk-attitudes-and-the-long-run-future-cover.png" /><meta itemprop="width" content="1096" /><meta itemprop="height" content="1500" /></div><div itemprop="interactionStatistic" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/InteractionCounter"><meta itemprop="interactionType" content="https://schema.org/CommentAction" /><meta itemprop="userInteractionCount" content="0" /></div> <div class="fl-post-grid-text"> <h2 class="fl-post-grid-title" itemprop="headline"> <a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/respect-for-others-risk-attitudes-and-the-long-run-future-andreas-mogensen/" title="Respect for others’ risk attitudes and the long-run future – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)">Respect for others’ risk attitudes and the long-run future – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)</a> </h2> <div class="fl-post-grid-content"> <p>When our choice affects some other person and the outcome is unknown, it has been argued that we should defer to their risk attitude, if known, or else default to use of a risk avoidant risk function. This, in turn, has been claimed to require the use of a risk avoidant risk function when making decisions that primarily affect future people, and to decrease the desirability of efforts to prevent human extinction, owing to the significant risks associated with continued human survival. …</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-post-column"> <div class="fl-post-grid-post fl-post-align-default post-7656 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-featured-news category-papers category-philosophy category-working" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/BlogPosting"> <meta itemscope itemprop="mainEntityOfPage" itemtype="https://schema.org/WebPage" itemid="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/david-thorstad-three-mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk/" content="Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk – David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)" /><meta itemprop="datePublished" content="2023-07-04" /><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2024-04-04" /><div itemprop="publisher" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Organization"><meta itemprop="name" content="Global Priorities Institute"><div itemprop="logo" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/cropped-gpi_website_logo-1.png"></div></div><div itemscope itemprop="author" itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/author/christian-panzerphilosophy-ox-ac-uk/" /><meta itemprop="name" content="Christian Panzer" /></div><div itemscope itemprop="image" itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/David-Thorstad-Three-mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk-cover.png" /><meta itemprop="width" content="1160" /><meta itemprop="height" content="1500" /></div><div itemprop="interactionStatistic" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/InteractionCounter"><meta itemprop="interactionType" content="https://schema.org/CommentAction" /><meta itemprop="userInteractionCount" content="0" /></div> <div class="fl-post-grid-text"> <h2 class="fl-post-grid-title" itemprop="headline"> <a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/david-thorstad-three-mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk/" title="Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk – David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)">Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk – David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)</a> </h2> <div class="fl-post-grid-content"> <p>Longtermists have recently argued that it is overwhelmingly important to do what we can to mitigate existential risks to humanity. I consider three mistakes that are often made in calculating the value of existential risk mitigation: focusing on cumulative risk rather than period risk; ignoring background risk; and neglecting population dynamics. I show how correcting these mistakes pushes the value of existential risk mitigation substantially below leading estimates, potentially low enough to…</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-post-column"> <div class="fl-post-grid-post fl-post-align-default post-8946 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-papers category-philosophy category-working" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/BlogPosting"> <meta itemscope itemprop="mainEntityOfPage" itemtype="https://schema.org/WebPage" itemid="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/towards-shutdownable-agents-via-stochastic-choice-thornley-roman-ziakas-ho-thomson/" content="Towards shutdownable agents via stochastic choice – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford), Alexander Roman (New College of Florida), Christos Ziakas (Independent), Leyton Ho (Brown University), and Louis Thomson (University of Oxford)" /><meta itemprop="datePublished" content="2024-07-02" /><meta itemprop="dateModified" content="2024-11-01" /><div itemprop="publisher" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Organization"><meta itemprop="name" content="Global Priorities Institute"><div itemprop="logo" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/cropped-gpi_website_logo-1.png"></div></div><div itemscope itemprop="author" itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/author/christian-panzerphilosophy-ox-ac-uk/" /><meta itemprop="name" content="Christian Panzer" /></div><div itemscope itemprop="image" itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageObject"><meta itemprop="url" content="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/ET-Towards-shutdownable-agents-cover.png" /><meta itemprop="width" content="787" /><meta itemprop="height" content="1000" /></div><div itemprop="interactionStatistic" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/InteractionCounter"><meta itemprop="interactionType" content="https://schema.org/CommentAction" /><meta itemprop="userInteractionCount" content="0" /></div> <div class="fl-post-grid-text"> <h2 class="fl-post-grid-title" itemprop="headline"> <a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/towards-shutdownable-agents-via-stochastic-choice-thornley-roman-ziakas-ho-thomson/" title="Towards shutdownable agents via stochastic choice – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford), Alexander Roman (New College of Florida), Christos Ziakas (Independent), Leyton Ho (Brown University), and Louis Thomson (University of Oxford)">Towards shutdownable agents via stochastic choice – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford), Alexander Roman (New College of Florida), Christos Ziakas (Independent), Leyton Ho (Brown University), and Louis Thomson (University of Oxford)</a> </h2> <div class="fl-post-grid-content"> <p>Some worry that advanced artificial agents may resist being shut down. The Incomplete Preferences Proposal (IPP) is an idea for ensuring that doesn’t happen. A key part of the IPP is using a novel ‘Discounted REward for Same-Length Trajectories (DREST)’ reward function to train agents to (1) pursue goals effectively conditional on each trajectory-length (be ‘USEFUL’), and (2) choose stochastically between different trajectory-lengths (be ‘NEUTRAL’ about trajectory-lengths). In this paper, we propose evaluation metrics…</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="fl-clear"></div> <div class="fl-builder-pagination"> <ul class='page-numbers'> <li><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/page/2/">2</a></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/page/3/">3</a></li> <li><span class="page-numbers dots">…</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/page/35/">35</a></li> <li><a class="next page-numbers" href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/christian-tarsney-the-epistemic-challenge-to-longtermism/page/2/">Next »</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> <nav class="navigation post-navigation" aria-label="Post navigation"> <span class="screen-reader-text">Post navigation</span> <div class="nav-links"><div class="nav-previous"><a title="Summary: Moral demands and the far future (Andreas Mogensen)" href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/summary-moral-demands-and-the-far-future/" rel="prev"><span class="ast-left-arrow">←</span> Previous Post</a></div><div class="nav-next"><a title="Prizes in Global Priorities Research" href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/paper-prize-for-global-priorities-research/" rel="next">Next Post <span class="ast-right-arrow">→</span></a></div></div> </nav> </main> </div> </div>  </div> <footer class="site-footer" id="colophon" itemtype="https://schema.org/WPFooter" itemscope="itemscope" itemid="#colophon"> <div class="site-above-footer-wrap ast-builder-grid-row-container site-footer-focus-item ast-builder-grid-row-4-equal ast-builder-grid-row-tablet-2-equal ast-builder-grid-row-mobile-full ast-footer-row-stack ast-footer-row-tablet-stack ast-footer-row-mobile-stack" data-section="section-above-footer-builder"> <div class="ast-builder-grid-row-container-inner"> <div class="ast-builder-footer-grid-columns site-above-footer-inner-wrap ast-builder-grid-row"> <div class="site-footer-above-section-1 site-footer-section site-footer-section-1"> <aside class="footer-widget-area widget-area site-footer-focus-item" data-section="sidebar-widgets-footer-widget-1" aria-label="Footer Widget 1" > <div class="footer-widget-area-inner site-info-inner"><section id="text-19" class="widget widget_text"><h2 class="widget-title">Quick links</h2> <div class="textwidget"><ul> <li><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/supporting-gpi/">Support GPI</a></li> <li><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/diversity-at-gpi/">Diversity at GPI</a></li> <li><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/GPI-website-privacy-policy.pdf">GPI Privacy Policy</a><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/GPI-website-privacy-policy.pdf"><br /> </a><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/cookie-policy/">Our cookie policy</a><a href="https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/GPI-website-privacy-policy.pdf"><br /> </a><a href="http://www.ox.ac.uk/legal">Oxford University website terms of use</a></li> </ul> </div> </section></div> </aside> </div> <div class="site-footer-above-section-2 site-footer-section site-footer-section-2"> <aside class="footer-widget-area widget-area site-footer-focus-item" data-section="sidebar-widgets-footer-widget-2" aria-label="Footer Widget 2" > <div class="footer-widget-area-inner site-info-inner"><section id="text-21" class="widget widget_text"><h2 class="widget-title">Visit us</h2> <div class="textwidget"><p>Trajan House<br /> Mill Street<br /> Oxford<br /> OX2 0DJ<br /> United Kingdom</p> </div> </section></div> </aside> </div> <div class="site-footer-above-section-3 site-footer-section site-footer-section-3"> <aside class="footer-widget-area widget-area site-footer-focus-item" data-section="sidebar-widgets-footer-widget-3" aria-label="Footer Widget 3" > <div class="footer-widget-area-inner site-info-inner"><section id="mc4wp_form_widget-5" class="widget widget_mc4wp_form_widget"><h2 class="widget-title">Newsletter</h2><script>(function() { window.mc4wp = window.mc4wp || { listeners: [], forms: { on: function(evt, cb) { window.mc4wp.listeners.push( { event : evt, callback: cb } ); 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