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class="artTitle font_faus">Junk bonds at risk as EMs brace for ‘Trumponomics’</h1></div><div class="bylineBox"><div class="dt contentwrapper"><div class="dtc vam artByline"><div class="story_title clearfix"><div class="menu_list flt"><span class="lines"><span class="line1"></span><span class="line2"></span><span class="line3"></span></span><span>SECTIONS</span></div><div class="arttitle flt">Junk bonds at risk as EMs brace for ‘Trumponomics’</div></div><span class="ag">Bloomberg</span><span class="circle"></span><time class="jsdtTime" data-dt="1732494120000">Last Updated: Nov 25, 2024, 05:52:00 AM IST</time></div><div class="dtc vam artShare flr" data-ga-action="Action"><div class="userRating hide"><span class="rating_icon"></span><span>Rate Story</span><div class="rating_block"></div></div><div class="whatsappFollow"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAr2nxHbFV91x3BKx10"><img alt="Whatsapp Follow Channel" height="18" width="18" 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class="pageContent flt"><div style="position:absolute; height:250px; width:300px; top:12px; right:1%" id="primuser_ad_absolute"><div data-loc="All" data-user="subscribed" data-size="[[300,250]]" data-adsSlot="ET_Prime/ET_Prime_AS/ET_Prime_AS_ATF_Mid_Banner" id="primead_115639195" class="primeuser_asmidad"></div></div><div class="artSyn bgPink"><div class="bold">Synopsis</div><h2 class="summary">A Bloomberg index of high-yielding sovereign dollar debt is heading for a 15% surge this year, the biggest annual gain since 2016. Global investors are rewarding countries such as Argentina, Sri Lanka and Ghana for healing their defaults and embarking on economic reforms. This rally has shown resilience even to the US yield spikes of the past two months.</h2></div><article competitionClients="" currency_ad="1" data-apw="1" class="artData clr paywall"><div class="imgBox smallImg"><figure class="artImg"><img height="158" width="210" alt="EMs" src="https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-115639220,width-210,height-158,imgsize-61696,resizemode-75/ems.jpg"><span class="imgAgency">iStock</span><figcaption class="figCap"> Argentina, Brazil, Ghana and Kenya figure among nations that have seen the sharpest increases in debt burdens over the past decade or more.</figcaption></figure></div><div data-brCount="39" class="artText">The junk-bond rally in <a ref="dofollow" data-ga-onclick="Inarticle articleshow link click#Markets#href" href="/topic/emerging-markets" target="_blank">emerging markets</a> risks being just an interlude between the debt crisis of the past four years and a new bout of distress in the next four, if Donald Trump does what he says he will.<br><br>A Bloomberg index of high-yielding sovereign dollar debt is heading for a 15% surge this year, the biggest annual gain since 2016. Global investors are rewarding countries such as Argentina, Sri Lanka and Ghana for healing their defaults and embarking on economic reforms. This rally has shown resilience even to the US yield spikes of the past two months.<br><div data-mid-newpos-mgid="mgid_115639195" id="div-mgid-mid-newpos-115639195"></div><div style="margin-bottom:45px;" hello="5" class="adBox custom_ad taboola" data-taboola="taboola_115639195"><div class="colombia colombiaAd" data-section="0" data-position="115639195" data-slot="532740" col="4" data-msg="ctnCallbackHandler" id="div-clmb-ctn-208630-115639195-39"></div><div id="v-economictimes-indiatimes-v3"></div><div data-placement="Mid Article Thumbnails" data-target_type="mix" data-mode="thumbnails-mid" style="min-height:400px; margin-bottom:12px;" class="wdt-taboola" id="taboola-mid-article-thumbnails-115639195"></div></div><br>President-elect Trump’s return to White House has raised doubts about the longevity of that rally. The world’s poorest nations — which form the bulk of the EM junk-bond universe — stand to lose the most from his pledges to raise trade tariffs, boost government spending and deport foreigners without visas. Their dependence on dollar flows means US policy will hit them more than countries that have domestic sources of capital and demand.<br><br>“Trump’s anticipated policy changes will likely push the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts, keeping the global economy in a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment,” said Reza Baqir, a former governor of Pakistan’s central bank and now the Dubai-based head of sovereign-advisory services at Alvarez & Marsal.<br><div class="stockpro_widget"></div><br> “This shift weakens emerging-market currencies against the dollar, amplifying challenges for countries already grappling with economic vulnerabilities. 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Moody’s Ratings, for instance, is paying attention to how much of a “natural flow of dollars” a country has in order to insure against <a ref="dofollow" data-ga-onclick="Inarticle articleshow link click#Markets#href" href="/topic/trade-disruptions" target="_blank">trade disruptions</a>. <br><br><div data-size="[[300, 250], [600, 250], [600, 300]]" data-adsSlot="/7176/Economictimes/ET_News/ET_News_ROS/ET_News_ROS_MID_INTL_300" data-loc="100" id="div-gpt-ad-858478126-1-115639195" class="country_specAD"></div>“Disruptions to global trade from tariffs and other measures will obviously be bad for emerging markets that export to the US, even if they price their exports in dollar terms,” said Vittoria Zoli, an analyst at Moody’s. “That could be compounded by a strong US exchange rate, particularly if US policy rates stay higher than previously expected.”<br><br><div data-size="[[300, 250], [600, 250], [600, 300]]" data-adsSlot="/7176/Economictimes/ET_News/ET_News_ROS/ET_News_ROS_MID1_INTL_300" data-loc="2" id="div-gpt-ad-858478132-1-115639195" class="country_specAD2nd"></div><div data-size="[[300, 250], [600, 250], [600, 300]]" data-adsSlot="/7176/Economictimes/ET_News/ET_News_ROS/ET_News_ROS_MID1_INTL_300" data-loc="5" id="div-gpt-ad-858478132-1-115639195" class="country_specAD2nd"></div><div data-size="[[300, 250], [600, 250], [600, 300]]" data-adsSlot="/7176/Economictimes/ET_News/ET_News_ROS/ET_News_ROS_MID1_INTL_300" data-loc="3" id="div-gpt-ad-858478132-1-115639195" class="country_specAD2nd"></div><h3 style="margin-top: 7px; margin-bottom: 7px; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant-emoji: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: inherit; font-family: AvenirNext-Demi, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(74, 74, 74); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Lone Outperformer</h3>Gains in high-yielding bonds have been the brightest spot in emerging markets this year as virtually every other asset in the universe has underperformed. Emerging-market stocks are trading near the lowest level since 1987 relative to US equities. The currency carry trade is losing money and investment-grade bonds continue to be shunned by global investors.<br><br>The rally has helped <a ref="dofollow" data-ga-onclick="Inarticle articleshow link click#Markets#href" href="/topic/junk-bonds" target="_blank">junk bonds</a> cut their average yield by 166 basis points this year to 8.45%, still an attractive additional return over the risk-free rate. At least 31 of the 71 countries in the Bloomberg EM High Yield Total Return Index have had double-digit returns, with four — Argentina, Ecuador, Moldova and Ukraine — generating more than 50%.<br><br>The momentum has continued even after US election results, despite Trump’s “America First” pledges. Money managers say they aren’t yet selling the bonds because it’s too early to price in the risks, given the inauguration is still eight weeks away and as Trump may not turn all his campaign rhetoric into action.<br><br>“Roughly 50% of what Donald Trump proposed during the election campaign will be implemented,” Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, wrote in a note. So far, the market has only priced in deregulation and tax cuts, he said. “Two big tail risks are underpriced: an all-out global trade war and a surge in bond yields.”<br><div data-align="" data-msid="115639238" data-type="image" class="midImg clearfix"><figure class="imgBg"><img title="420680380" alt="420680380" src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-42031747/et-logo.jpg" class="lazy gwt-Image" data-msid="115639238" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-115639238/420680380.jpg"><span class="imgAgency">Bloomberg</span></figure><div><div class="imgActions flr"><span class="asSprite imgZoom zoomIcon"></span></div></div></div><br>Investors also say emerging-market turnaround stories have more room to go. For instance, bullish bets on President Javier Milei’s fiscal reforms in Argentina or the prospect of an end to the Russian-Ukraine war could continue to generate returns before the realities of a second Trump term materialize.<br><br>Some even see pockets of benefits for emerging markets from Trump’s policies, in the form of a faster-growing US economy and diversion of trade from China to smaller nations.<br><br>“We will see volatility increase,” said Martin Bercetche, a hedge-fund manager at UK-based Frontier Road. “This should create a good trading environment. Until we get further clarity on the magnitude of Trump’s policies, it’s difficult to have a strong opinion as to where levels will be in the next few years.”<br><br>While bond investors are debating near-term fluctuations over Trump’s policy, the key challenge to emerging economies lies in their long-term impact on credit flow. After four years of elevated interest rates and constrained market access, poorer nations can ill-afford any further flight of capital — which is what Alvarez & Marsal expects if Trump’s policies are fully implemented.<br><br>The debt adviser’s research shows those countries with high debt levels, high gross financing needs, hidden off-balance-sheet liabilities, an inefficient public sector and facing geopolitical risks are the most vulnerable to a loss of funding. Argentina, Brazil, Ghana and Kenya figure among nations that have seen the sharpest increases in debt burdens over the past decade or more.<br><br><h3 style="margin-top: 7px; margin-bottom: 7px; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant-emoji: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: inherit; font-family: AvenirNext-Demi, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(74, 74, 74); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Extra Yield</h3>Investors may find the compensation offered by <a ref="dofollow" data-ga-onclick="Inarticle articleshow link click#Markets#href" href="/topic/high-yield-debt" target="_blank">high-yield debt</a> inadequate amid Trump’s policy risks. The securities offer an extra yield over Treasuries of about 585 basis points, close to the levels that sparked a selloff in 2021. They are also the least attractive in six years compared with emerging-market investment-grade bonds.<br><br>Trump’s inauguration will bring a fresh assessment of emerging-market creditworthiness. If he shows a zeal to follow through on his pledges, the risk of a new cycle of distress and default will be priced in, calling curtains on the rally that marked 2024.<br><br>“This is emerging markets,” said Bercetche of Frontier Road. “Default risk never left the building.”<br><br><br><style> #sr_widget.onDemand p, #stock_pro.onDemand p{font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.28;} .onDemand .live_stock{left:17px;padding:1px 3px 1px 5px;font-size:12px;font-weight:600;line-height:18px;top:9px} #sr_widget.onDemand .sr_desc{margin:0 auto 0;} #sr_widget.onDemand .sr_desc{color: #024d99;margin-top:10px;} #sr_widget.onDemand .crypto .live_stock .lb-icon{8px 6px 5px 3px !important} #sr_widget.crypto.onDemand a.text{border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;padding-bottom:5px;display:block;width:100%} #sr_widget.onDemand .sr_desc .text p, #stock_pro.onDemand .sr_desc .text p{font-size:12px;font-weight:400;} </style><div class="hide_content mt10"><div><a target="_blank" href=""></a></div></div><div class="inSideInd"><br><br><em>(You can now subscribe to our <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAr2nxHbFV91x3BKx10" target="_blank" data-ga-onclick="WhtsApChnl#Click_Web#Markets">ETMarkets WhatsApp channel</a>)<br></em></div></div><div class="clr"></div><div class="clr"></div><div class="rating_block hide ftr custom_ad"></div><div class="inSideInd"><div class="clearfix relTopics raltedTopics" data-ga-action="Widget Read More News"><h4 class="uc">Read More News on</h4><div><a data-track="ReadMore1" data-ga-onclick="1 - href" href="/topic/junk-bonds">junk bonds</a><a data-track="ReadMore2" data-ga-onclick="2 - href" href="/topic/emerging-markets">emerging markets</a><a data-track="ReadMore3" data-ga-onclick="3 - href" href="/topic/donald-trump-policies">Donald Trump policies</a><a data-track="ReadMore4" data-ga-onclick="4 - href" href="/topic/trade-disruptions">trade disruptions</a></div></div></div><div data-placement="Below Article Thumbnails" data-target_type="mix" data-mode="thumbnails-below" style="margin-bottom:12px;" class="wdt-taboola" id="taboola-eoa-article-thumbnails-115639195"></div><div class="inSideInd"><div class="disclamerText disc_ellipsis"><p>(What's moving <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/indices/sensex_30_companies">Sensex</a> and <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/indices/nifty_50_companies">Nifty</a> Track <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks">latest market news</a>, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/recos">stock tips</a>, <a href="/budget">Budget 2024</a> and <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view">expert advice</a>, on <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets">ETMarkets</a>. 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Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. 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data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">IRFC Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">146.31</td></tr><tr><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">4.16(2.93%)</span></td></tr><tr><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/suzlon-energy-ltd/stocks/companyid-1209.cms" title="Suzlon Energy Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Suzlon Energy Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">64.23</td></tr><tr><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-0.99(-1.52%)</span></td></tr><tr><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/indian-renewable-energy-development-agency-ltd/stocks/companyid-4517.cms" title="IREDA Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">IREDA Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">189.97</td></tr><tr><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">4.47(2.41%)</span></td></tr><tr><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tata-motors-ltd/stocks/companyid-12934.cms" title="Tata Motors Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Tata Motors Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">796.6</td></tr><tr><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">5.61(0.71%)</span></td></tr><tr><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/yes-bank-ltd/stocks/companyid-16552.cms" title="YES Bank Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">YES Bank Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">19.18</td></tr><tr><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-0.04(-0.16%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/hdfc-bank-ltd/stocks/companyid-9195.cms" title="HDFC Bank Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">HDFC Bank Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">1785.6</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">40.0(2.3%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nhpc-ltd/stocks/companyid-12536.cms" title="NHPC Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">NHPC Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">82.43</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">3.28(4.14%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/rail-vikas-nigam-ltd/stocks/companyid-18466.cms" title="RVNL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">RVNL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">438.1</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">17.91(4.26%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/state-bank-of-india/stocks/companyid-11984.cms" title="SBI Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">SBI Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">844.45</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">28.41(3.49%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tata-power-company-ltd/stocks/companyid-12918.cms" title="Tata Power Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Tata Power Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">412.35</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-1.4(-0.34%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tata-steel-ltd/stocks/companyid-12902.cms" title="Tata Steel Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Tata Steel Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">143.67</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">0.89(0.63%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/adani-power-ltd/stocks/companyid-23479.cms" title="Adani Power Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Adani Power Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">446.65</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-13.81(-3.0%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/one97-communications-ltd/stocks/companyid-2017785.cms" title="PayTM Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">PayTM Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">892.95</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-8.0(-0.89%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/punjab-national-bank/stocks/companyid-11585.cms" title="PNB Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">PNB Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">104.11</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">4.3(4.3%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/zomato-ltd/stocks/companyid-57948.cms" title="Zomato Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Zomato Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">273.31</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_2"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">9.12(3.45%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/bharat-electronics-ltd/stocks/companyid-11945.cms" title="BEL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">BEL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">292.35</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">11.5(4.1%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/bharat-heavy-electricals-ltd/stocks/companyid-11831.cms" title="BHEL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">BHEL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">241.22</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">6.84(2.92%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/infosys-ltd/stocks/companyid-10960.cms" title="Infosys Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Infosys Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">1889.7</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-12.55(-0.66%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/indian-railway-catering-tourism-corporation-ltd/stocks/companyid-16705.cms" title="IRCTC Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">IRCTC Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">812.1</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">3.5(0.44%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/itc-ltd/stocks/companyid-13554.cms" title="ITC Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">ITC Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">476.8</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">2.16(0.46%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jio-financial-services-ltd/stocks/companyid-14555.cms" title="Jio Financial Services Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Jio Financial Services Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">323.25</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">9.45(3.02%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/life-insurance-corporation-of-india/stocks/companyid-5050.cms" title="LIC Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">LIC Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">905.05</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">15.55(1.75%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/reliance-industries-ltd/stocks/companyid-13215.cms" title="RIL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">RIL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">1287.0</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">21.6(1.71%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd/stocks/companyid-9206.cms" title="HAL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">HAL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">4289.95</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">178.6(4.35%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jaiprakash-power-ventures-ltd/stocks/companyid-1513.cms" title="JP Power Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">JP Power Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">16.21</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_3"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-0.09(-0.56%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nbcc-india-ltd/stocks/companyid-4531.cms" title="NBCC Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">NBCC Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">94.76</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">5.64(6.32%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tata-consultancy-services-ltd/stocks/companyid-8345.cms" title="TCS Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">TCS Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">4315.1</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">70.5(1.67%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/vedanta-ltd/stocks/companyid-13111.cms" title="Vedanta Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Vedanta Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">443.8</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-1.56(-0.35%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wipro-ltd/stocks/companyid-12799.cms" title="Wipro Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Wipro Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">582.45</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">10.81(1.89%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/indian-oil-corporation-ltd/stocks/companyid-11924.cms" title="Indian Oil Corp. Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Indian Oil Corp. Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">136.4</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">3.79(2.86%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ircon-international-ltd/stocks/companyid-11980.cms" title="Ircon Intl. Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Ircon Intl. Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">196.45</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">8.89(4.74%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/steel-authority-of-india-sail-ltd/stocks/companyid-11974.cms" title="SAIL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">SAIL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">114.09</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">1.27(1.12%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/sjvn-ltd/stocks/companyid-18460.cms" title="SJVN Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">SJVN Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">112.98</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">5.42(5.03%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/gail-india-ltd/stocks/companyid-4845.cms" title="GAIL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">GAIL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">199.19</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">6.58(3.42%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/housing-and-urban-development-corporation-ltd/stocks/companyid-4516.cms" title="HUDCO Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">HUDCO Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">217.04</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_4"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">11.07(5.37%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/rec-ltd/stocks/companyid-4616.cms" title="REC Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">REC Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">519.4</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">13.15(2.6%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/reliance-power-ltd/stocks/companyid-4422.cms" title="Reliance Power Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Reliance Power Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">34.59</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-0.46(-1.32%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tata-technologies-ltd/stocks/companyid-4612.cms" title="Tata Technologies Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Tata Technologies Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">943.15</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">1.95(0.21%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/vodafone-idea-ltd/stocks/companyid-3154.cms" title="Vodafone Idea Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Vodafone Idea Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">6.97</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">0.3(4.5%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/adani-enterprises-ltd/stocks/companyid-9074.cms" title="Adani Ent. Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Adani Ent. Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">2257.5</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">29.5(1.33%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/adani-green-energy-ltd/stocks/companyid-64847.cms" title="Adani Green Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Adani Green Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">968.8</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-83.0(-7.9%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd/stocks/companyid-20316.cms" title="Adani Ports SEZ Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Adani Ports SEZ Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">1166.8</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">30.05(2.65%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ashok-leyland-ltd/stocks/companyid-14041.cms" title="Ashok Leyland Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Ashok Leyland Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">234.91</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">10.95(4.89%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/bank-of-baroda/stocks/companyid-12040.cms" title="Bank of Baroda Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Bank of Baroda Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">247.1</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">11.1(4.71%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/bse-ltd/stocks/companyid-2809.cms" title="BSE Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">BSE Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">4686.8</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_5"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per red">-33.15(-0.71%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/canara-bank/stocks/companyid-9218.cms" title="Canara Bank Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Canara Bank Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">100.98</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">3.97(4.1%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/central-depository-services-india-ltd/stocks/companyid-4259.cms" title="CDSL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">CDSL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">1554.55</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">14.3(0.93%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/coal-india-ltd/stocks/companyid-11822.cms" title="Coal India Ltd Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">Coal India Ltd Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">417.45</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">3.4(0.83%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/hfcl-ltd/stocks/companyid-13649.cms" title="HFCL Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">HFCL Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">126.97</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:59 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">0.69(0.55%)</span></td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="stockName"><a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/idfc-first-bank-ltd/stocks/companyid-62245.cms" title="IDFC First Bank Share Price" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click">IDFC First Bank Share Price</a></td><td class="stockValue">64.65</td></tr><tr class="hide moreData" data-loadmore="jsMoredata_6"><td class="brdrbt"><span class="dateTimeStock">03:58 PM | 25 Nov 2024</span></td><td class="stockValue brdrbt"><span class="cSprite_b per green">0.5(0.78%)</span></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2"><span data-count="1" data-loadmore="jsMoredata" data-ga-onclick="RHS Widget#Most Searched Stock widget Click" class="js_loadMoreStocks">Load more..</span></td></tr></tbody></table></section><div data-size="[300,600]" data-adsSlot="ET_B2B/ET_B2B_ROS/ET_B2B_ROS_BTF_300" id="div-gpt-ad-b2b-2146846-115639195" data-oop="0" data-loc="All" data-adtype="b2b" class="adsbg300 adMinH600 prime_ads"></div><div id="marketGainers" class="lazyWidget clearfix" data-url="/gainers_widget.cms"></div></div><div class="stickyContainer"><div class="adSelector5 adsbg300 adMinH250 prime_ads" data-adsSlot="ET_ROS_NW/ET_ROS_Mrec1" mrec="mrec10" data-loc="All" data-oop="0" id="div-gpt-ad-mid-budget15-115639195" data-adtype="mrec1" data-size="[300, 250]"></div></div><div 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Global investors are rewarding countries such as Argentina, Sri Lanka and Ghana for healing their defaults and embarking on economic reforms. This rally has shown resilience even to the US yield spikes of the past two months.", "datePublished": "2024-11-25T05:45:00+05:30", "dateModified": "2024-11-25T05:52:00+05:30", "url":"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/junk-bonds-at-risk-as-ems-brace-for-trumponomics/articleshow/115639195.cms", "mainEntityOfPage":"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/junk-bonds-at-risk-as-ems-brace-for-trumponomics/articleshow/115639195.cms", "articleSection" : "Markets", "articleBody":"The junk-bond rally in emerging markets risks being just an interlude between the debt crisis of the past four years and a new bout of distress in the next four, if Donald Trump does what he says he will.A Bloomberg index of high-yielding sovereign dollar debt is heading for a 15% surge this year, the biggest annual gain since 2016. Global investors are rewarding countries such as Argentina, Sri Lanka and Ghana for healing their defaults and embarking on economic reforms. This rally has shown resilience even to the US yield spikes of the past two months.President-elect Trump’s return to White House has raised doubts about the longevity of that rally. The world’s poorest nations — which form the bulk of the EM junk-bond universe — stand to lose the most from his pledges to raise trade tariffs, boost government spending and deport foreigners without visas. Their dependence on dollar flows means US policy will hit them more than countries that have domestic sources of capital and demand.“Trump’s anticipated policy changes will likely push the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts, keeping the global economy in a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment,” said Reza Baqir, a former governor of Pakistan’s central bank and now the Dubai-based head of sovereign-advisory services at Alvarez & Marsal. “This shift weakens emerging-market currencies against the dollar, amplifying challenges for countries already grappling with economic vulnerabilities. As reserves are depleted and external stability is compromised, these dynamics heighten the risk of financial distress.”115639229Ratings companies are also watching Trump’s policies for their potential impact on sovereign creditworthiness. Moody’s Ratings, for instance, is paying attention to how much of a “natural flow of dollars” a country has in order to insure against trade disruptions. “Disruptions to global trade from tariffs and other measures will obviously be bad for emerging markets that export to the US, even if they price their exports in dollar terms,” said Vittoria Zoli, an analyst at Moody’s. “That could be compounded by a strong US exchange rate, particularly if US policy rates stay higher than previously expected.”Lone OutperformerGains in high-yielding bonds have been the brightest spot in emerging markets this year as virtually every other asset in the universe has underperformed. Emerging-market stocks are trading near the lowest level since 1987 relative to US equities. The currency carry trade is losing money and investment-grade bonds continue to be shunned by global investors.The rally has helped junk bonds cut their average yield by 166 basis points this year to 8.45%, still an attractive additional return over the risk-free rate. At least 31 of the 71 countries in the Bloomberg EM High Yield Total Return Index have had double-digit returns, with four — Argentina, Ecuador, Moldova and Ukraine — generating more than 50%.The momentum has continued even after US election results, despite Trump’s “America First” pledges. Money managers say they aren’t yet selling the bonds because it’s too early to price in the risks, given the inauguration is still eight weeks away and as Trump may not turn all his campaign rhetoric into action.“Roughly 50% of what Donald Trump proposed during the election campaign will be implemented,” Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, wrote in a note. So far, the market has only priced in deregulation and tax cuts, he said. “Two big tail risks are underpriced: an all-out global trade war and a surge in bond yields.”115639238Investors also say emerging-market turnaround stories have more room to go. For instance, bullish bets on President Javier Milei’s fiscal reforms in Argentina or the prospect of an end to the Russian-Ukraine war could continue to generate returns before the realities of a second Trump term materialize.Some even see pockets of benefits for emerging markets from Trump’s policies, in the form of a faster-growing US economy and diversion of trade from China to smaller nations.“We will see volatility increase,” said Martin Bercetche, a hedge-fund manager at UK-based Frontier Road. “This should create a good trading environment. Until we get further clarity on the magnitude of Trump’s policies, it’s difficult to have a strong opinion as to where levels will be in the next few years.”While bond investors are debating near-term fluctuations over Trump’s policy, the key challenge to emerging economies lies in their long-term impact on credit flow. After four years of elevated interest rates and constrained market access, poorer nations can ill-afford any further flight of capital — which is what Alvarez & Marsal expects if Trump’s policies are fully implemented.The debt adviser’s research shows those countries with high debt levels, high gross financing needs, hidden off-balance-sheet liabilities, an inefficient public sector and facing geopolitical risks are the most vulnerable to a loss of funding. Argentina, Brazil, Ghana and Kenya figure among nations that have seen the sharpest increases in debt burdens over the past decade or more.Extra YieldInvestors may find the compensation offered by high-yield debt inadequate amid Trump’s policy risks. The securities offer an extra yield over Treasuries of about 585 basis points, close to the levels that sparked a selloff in 2021. They are also the least attractive in six years compared with emerging-market investment-grade bonds.Trump’s inauguration will bring a fresh assessment of emerging-market creditworthiness. If he shows a zeal to follow through on his pledges, the risk of a new cycle of distress and default will be priced in, calling curtains on the rally that marked 2024.“This is emerging markets,” said Bercetche of Frontier Road. “Default risk never left the building.”", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-115639220,resizemode-4,width-1200,height-900,imgsize-61696,overlay-etmarkets/articleshow.jpg", "width": 1200, "height": 900 }, "author": { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Bloomberg" }, "publisher": { "@type": "NewsMediaOrganization", "name": "Economic Times", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-76939477,width-600,height-60,quality-100/economictimes.jpg", "width": 600, "height": 60 } } , "isAccessibleForFree" : "https://schema.org/False", "hasPart": { "@type": "WebPageElement", "isAccessibleForFree": "https://schema.org/False", "cssSelector" : ".paywall" }, "isPartOf": { "@type": ["CreativeWork", "Product"], "name" : "Economic Times", "productID": "prime.economictimes.indiatimes.com:prime" } }</script><script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "https://schema.org/", "@type" : "WebPage", "name" : "Junk bonds at risk as EMs brace for ‘Trumponomics’", "speakable" : { "@type": "SpeakableSpecification", "cssSelector" : [".article_wrap h1", ".artSyn h2"] }, "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/junk-bonds-at-risk-as-ems-brace-for-trumponomics/articleshow/115639195.cms" } </script><script type="text/javascript"> //set iframe height on load (function(){ $('#toispecials-iframe').height($(window).height()); })(); /* function scrollIframeToTop() { setTimeout(function() { $('body, html').animate({ scrollTop: $menuEl.offset().top }, 800); }, 500); } scrollIframeToTop(); */ </script><script> var countryCode = window.geoinfo && geoinfo.CountryCode; if (countryCode === "IN"){ $('.inSideInd').addClass("show"); $('.outsideInd').remove(); } else{ $('.outsideInd').addClass("show"); $('.inSideInd').remove(); } window.onload = function() { // setFont(); }; </script><div class="blocker_wrap hidden"><section class="font_mon login_blocker hidden"><div class="lb_head tac">Continue reading with one of these options:</div><div class="lb_box_cont"><div class="lb_box"><div class="lb_boxb"><div class="lb_boxh">Limited Access</div><div class="lb_boxt">Free</div><div class="lb_boxd">Login to get access to some exclusive stories<br> & personalised newsletters</div><div onclick="objPrimePaywall.cta('login')" class="lb_boxbtn">Login Now</div></div></div><div class="lb_box"><div class="lb_boxb"><div class="lb_boxh">Unlimited Access</div><div class="lb_boxt lb_pr">Starting @ Rs120/month</div><div class="lb_boxd">Get access to exclusive stories, expert opinions &<br> in-depth stock reports</div><div onclick="objPrimePaywall.cta('plan')" class="lb_boxbtn">Subscribe Now</div></div></div></div></section><div class="loader_box"><div class="spinner"><div class="loading-text">ET</div></div></div><section class="font_mon prime_paywall"><style> .articleBlockerWrap {width: 650px;background: #ffe9e2;height: 251px;display: none;margin: 2% auto 2%;box-shadow: 0 12px 20px 0 rgb(0 0 0 / 13%);} .articleBlocker {background: #ffe9e2;border: 7px solid white;padding: 28px 22px;width: 567px;margin: auto;text-align: left;position: relative;min-height: 149px;} .articleBlocker h4 {font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;line-height: 1.27;} .articleBlocker p {font-size: 16px;margin: 15px 0;} .articleBlocker button {background: #ed193b;color: white;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 800;margin: auto;width: 215px;height: 37px;border-radius: 2px;position: absolute;animation: .18s linear infinite alternate slide;} @keyframes slide {from {left: 15px;}to {left: 30px;;}} .articleBlocker button:hover {animation-play-state: paused;cursor: pointer;} .articleBlocker img {position: absolute;right: 22px;height: 120px;bottom: 0;} </style><div data-paywall="true" data-grx-impression="Subscription Flow ET Articleshow Blocker#Scroll Blocker Impression#Blocker layer Viewed" class="articleBlockerWrap"><div class="articleBlocker"><h4>Uh-oh! 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'100' : ''; var sectionName = artNode.sectionName || '-'; var clickEvent = 'Story Collection on Paywall - Click_Missed paid articles#' + sectionName + '#' + (i+1) + ' - href'; listing += '<li class="stry_item"><span class="title_block" title="' + artNode.hl + '" data-ga-onclick="' + clickEvent + '" href="' + artNode.ga + '" data-conttype="' + artNode.ga + '"><img title="' + artNode.hl + '" alt="' + artNode.hl + '" height="177" width="236" src="' + artNode.im + '"></span><div class="content"><a title="' + artNode.hl + '" data-ga-onclick="' + clickEvent + '" href="' + artNode.ga + '" class="stry_title font_faus" data-conttype="' + conttype + '" data-hostid="' + artNode.hostid + '">' + artNode.hl + '</a></div></li>'; }); } if(listing) { var h3 = "You tried reading " + listArr.length + " locked stories in the past " + threshold + " days.", h4 = "Become an ET Prime member and don't miss out on these exclusive stories."; var html = '<div data-ga-impression="Story Collection on Paywall - Impression_Missed paid articles#Story Collection on Paywall - Impression_Missed paid articles#url" id="paywallStoriesSlider_freeArt"><div class="prel"><h3 class="section_heading" style="margin-bottom: 10px;">' + h3 + '</h3><h4 class="section_heading2" style="font-size:24px;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 10px;font-weight: 500;">' + h4 + '</h4><div class="slider_listing_sc"><div class="overh"><div><ul class="listing_wrapper">' + listing + '</ul></div></div><div class="nextprev-btn"><span class="prev-btn leftarw abicon_sprite disable"></span><span class="next-btn rightarw abicon_sprite"></span></div><div class="ts-dots flt hide"></div></div></div></div>'; $('#paidSCWidget').html(html); var callback = $('#paidSCWidget').attr('data-callback'); if(callback && window[callback]) { window[callback](); } customDimension.dimension72 += ' | Shown SYFT no Trial_With Missed Paywalled Articles Collection'; } else { _processNormal() } } }); } else { _processNormal(); } } catch (e) { _processNormal(); } }, function () { _processNormal(); }); //console.log('storyCollectionLoad', $); } </script><div id="missedStoriesWidget"></div><div id="newArticleBlocker"></div><div id="benifitsSection"><div class="f_list"><h3 class="tac normal"><span class="prel">Why <span class="cSprite ePrime"></span>?</span></h3><ul><li><img src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms" class="lazy" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-74493815,quality-100,imgsize-10394/exclusive-economic-times-stories-editorials-expert-opinion-across-20-sectors.jpg"><div class="fl_i_title"><Story><p><strong></strong><strong></strong><strong>Exclusive Economic Times Stories, Editorials & Expert opinion</strong> across 20+ sectors</p></Story></div></li><li><img src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms" class="lazy" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-74493814,quality-100,imgsize-1791/stock-analysis-market-research-industry-trends-on-4000-stocks.jpg"><div class="fl_i_title"><Story><p><strong></strong><strong>Stock analysis. Market Research. Industry Trends</strong> on 4000+ Stocks<strong></strong><strong></strong></p></Story></div></li><li><img src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms" class="lazy" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-74493812,quality-100,imgsize-12280/clean-experience-with-minimal-ads.jpg"><div class="fl_i_title"><Story>Clean experience with<br><strong>Minimal Ads</strong></Story></div></li><li><img src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms" class="lazy" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-74493806,quality-100,imgsize-24821/comment-engage-with-et-prime-community.jpg"><div class="fl_i_title"><Story><strong>Comment & Engage</strong> with ET Prime community</Story></div></li><li><img src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms" class="lazy" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-74493810,quality-100,imgsize-19449/exclusive-invites-to-virtual-events-with-industry-leaders.jpg"><div class="fl_i_title"><Story>Exclusive invites to <strong>Virtual Events with Industry Leaders</strong></Story></div></li><li><img src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms" class="lazy" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-74493809,quality-100,imgsize-11126/a-trusted-team-of-journalists-analysts-who-can-best-filter-signal-from-noise.jpg"><div class="fl_i_title"><Story>A trusted team of <strong>Journalists & Analysts </strong>who can best filter signal from noise<br></Story></div></li><li><img src="https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms" class="lazy" data-original="https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-99030928,quality-100,imgsize-82843/get-1-year-complimentary-subscription-of-toi-worth-rs-799/-.jpg"><div class="fl_i_title"><Story><p>Get <strong>1 Year Complimentary Subscription of TOI+</strong> worth Rs.799/-</p></Story></div></li></ul></div></div></section></div><div class="shadow_exitdlg"><div class="exitdlg_wrapper"><span class="close_btn"></span><p class="heading">Stories you might be interested in</p><ul></ul><div class="footer_nwsltr"><div class="flt"><span class="hdr_label">Subscribe to our</span><span class="subhdr_label">ET Investment Opportunities</span></div><div class="flr"><input placeholder="Enter your email id here" class="input_nwsltr" type="text"><button class="submit_btn" type="button">SUBMIT</button></div></div></div></div><script onerror="errorLogs(this)" src="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/js_ettechpoll/v-5,minify-3.cms" type="text/javascript" defer></script><script> if(window.location.href.indexOf('.com/articleshow/') != -1){ grxEvent('event', {'event_category': 'articleshow', 'event_action': 'url_issue referrer: ' + document.referrer, 'event_label': window.location.href}); } </script></body></html>