Mysteel：废铝供应紧张、新政多重因素导致铝锭废铝反向替代-我的钢铁网

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style="line-height: 1.8;">据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a> 了解，7月开始<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>加工企业已经提高A00铝锭的使用占比来替代废铝，但因7月恰逢铝消费淡季，替代量还未特别明显。据 Mysteel  7月数据显示，样本铝加工企业（铝棒及铝板带箔企业）7月废铝采购量为19.47万吨，环比降低15.02%，同比降低10.36%；A00铝锭采购量为20万吨，环比增加13.06%，同比增加25.31%。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/20/b92506a051f343aca73ce92565cde8e0.png" alt="" width="600" height="339.1824526420738" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; line-height: 1.8;">数据来源：Mysteel</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;">巩义A00铝锭的出库量已连续7周维持同比显著增加态势</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/21/8bbeb83fffa44d4281adbaf1f25dab4d.png" alt="" width="800" height="372" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;">接下来，我们从多方面来分析此情况，及8月铝锭对废铝的替代性是否可持续？</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><strong>一、需求方面：传统淡季铝消费不佳叠加新政影响</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;">5月原<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>格持续上涨创年内新高，然而高铝价抑制铝终端消费，下游铝加工行业订单开始回落，加快进入季节性消费淡季的步伐，6月铝加工企业订单进一步走弱。6月下旬开始，再生铝棒企业已经出现减产情况，同时铝板带箔企业也对7-8月市场消费充满悲观预期，去成品库为主，也降低采购需求，但因A00铝锭多为长单合作，更多是选择削减废铝的采购量，7月铝板带箔企业废铝使用量减量较为明显。另一方面，6月13日国务院发布《公平竞争审查条例》8月1日开始施行，7月中下旬开始企业观望情绪浓厚，部分企业选择多采购含税废铝，但市场含税废铝货源本就不多，企业转而加大铝锭使用量。第三方面，7月华东华南A00铝锭价差较大，华南不少铝加工企业采购A00铝锭生产较采购废铝生产更划算、采购压力也较小。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/21/49c6b46c4dcc4ed98e8c4df803c2417f.png" alt="" width="600" height="330.9782608695652" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; line-height: 1.8;">数据来源：Mysteel</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><strong>二、废铝供应大幅减量市场多高价货源</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;">从6月开始废铝产出量逐月环比下降，无论是工厂新料产出还是社会拆解旧料回收量均有所下滑。同时，6-7月铝价高位回落后持续下跌，跌了将近3000元/吨，废铝回收商大多没有套期保值习惯，铝价大幅下跌后废铝持货商出货意愿降低也是导致废铝供应大幅减量的重要因素。市场供应紧张，废铝持货商挺价惜售情绪浓烈，而铝加工企业亏损也不愿提高价格买货。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/21/d57d3d9f58af469b951440dc60be51ed.png" alt="" width="589" height="341" /></p> <p style="text-align: right; line-height: 1.8;">数据来源：Mysteel</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;">废铝供应紧张导致精废差的收窄，目前废铝市场仍处于供应短缺阶段，近期铝价企稳回升，虽有所带动废铝货源流通的增多，但废铝供应偏紧短期难改。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><strong>三、8月铝锭对废铝的替代是否可持续？</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;">近期铝价仍受宏观情绪影响为主，宏观情绪企稳叠加基本面的边际改善亦推动铝价持续反弹，但铝价未回升至2万元/吨以上水平，很难带动前期高成本废铝货源流出，且8月废铝产出量也处于低位状态。同时，9月即将来临，再生铝企业有复产计划，废铝采购需求环比明显增加，但供应增量有限。近期铝合金锭消费较好，原料紧缺，废铝采购价格大幅上调，部分废熟铝料型也向其倾斜，间接或直接地也在促进铝锭消费。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.8;"><strong>综合来看，8月废铝紧缺预计将持续，尤其在“金九”前下游企业备货需求下的废铝市场的供应紧张较难缓解，预计8月铝加工企业铝锭对废铝的替代量仍将持续。</strong></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝岳梅 021-26096606 </br> 资讯监督：王宏飞 010-57930636 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-6734-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-6734-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> 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