原材料大幅上涨，家用空调涨价在所难免？-我的钢铁网

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href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>主力合约价格创下年内新高。与此同时制冷剂也在大幅提价，据产业在线监测，今年一季度制冷剂R22、R32、R125、R134a的市场均价同比分别上涨11.2%、49.4%、42.1%和21.9%。</p> <p>在上游原材料突发性的涨价催动下，下游家用空调的成本压力凸显，部分家用空调企业也发布了涨价函。那么，究竟这次原材料涨价对下游整机的影响几何？后续的市场又将如何发展？产业在线对比相关数据进行了初步解析。</p> <p><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>价对空调成本影响显著，趋势同步节奏略滞后</strong></p> <p>从家用空调产品成本构成角度看，钢、铜、铝、塑料等原材料几乎占据着产品制造成本的80%。其中，铜约占到20%以上，铝约占4%，制冷剂约占1%。铜所占比例最大，因此铜价对空调成本的影响相对其他材料来说更为直接和显著。</p> <p>据产业在线对比历年铜价和空调价格走势来看，两者具有强关联性，空调价格略滞后但趋势基本同步。</p> <p style="text-align: center;">2020-2024家用空调内外销均价与铜价同比走势对比</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 315.622px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/15/49977698083a4eb7af9852478ba0d54d.png" width="600" height="315" /></p> <p>从2020-2024年前3月的数据来看，2020-2021年是铜价的大幅增长期，成本压力推动空调均价快速走高。2022年-2023年属于铜价的高位震荡期，价格持续在65000-70000元/吨左右震荡，而下游家用空调价格在这一时期基本稳定，其中外销均价在海运成本回落和汇率的共同作用下还有较大幅度的下调。2024开年以来，铜价在68000-70000元左右震荡，3月底才开始明显加速走高。</p> <p>从2024年一季度的上海期货铜成交均价来看，同比去年维持1.2%左右的小幅增长。因此从短期行情来看，空调企业的成本压力是逐渐加大的，但由于原材料采购的提前性、空调产品和渠道的特殊性等因素影响，原材料价格上涨并不一定能够实时传导到下游。</p> <p>铜价上涨对下游空调价格的影响，实质是一场长期动态发展中的博弈与平衡的关系。</p> <p><strong>涨价助推空调排产高涨，品牌呈现分化趋势</strong></p> <p>在这波铜价上涨之前，家用空调的内外销均价一直处在下滑态势。从品牌格局来看也出现明显的分化趋势，头部品牌的价格相对平稳，但中小品牌的价格竞争程度，从2024冷年开盘到今年一季度在持续加大。</p> <p>随着一季度铜价的抬头，不少家用空调企业也顺势发布涨价通知，但据产业在线观察，这些涨价通知大多并未明言涨价的幅度，只是写明要在某个时间点上调产品价格。某种程度来说，这也是在变相促进渠道提货打款，促进供应商拿货的一种营销手段。</p> <p>值得注意的是，3月底铜价的上涨也给本来就火热的空调排产“加了一把火”。据产业在线排产数据显示，继一季度家用空调排产大增31.5%之后，二季度继续维持高位增长，预计4-6月增长19.1%，大大超出行业预期。</p> <p style="text-align: center;">2022-2024年6月家用空调排产月度推移（万台）</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 345.098px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/15/7990ea26089e4a3a805bdbfc136d8e97.png" width="600" height="345" /></p> <p><strong>涨价VS价格战，家用空调后市如何发展</strong></p> <p>家用空调排产大增，给行业带来了较高的库存基数。据产业在线统计，2024年2月家用空调总库存达到4930.8万台，同比增长18.0%。旺季到来后企业出货是否顺利目前还是未知数，存在销售不达预期的风险，因此，厂家对今年旺季是否会出现价格战普遍存在忧虑。而近期的原材料价格上涨，让厂家后续的市场策略变得更加扑朔迷离。</p> <p>据产业在线调研，铜价造成的成本短期上升对于头部空调企业影响相对较小，一方面是因为头部企业具备规模化生产优势，会提前储备原材料；同时企业在大宗商品上也有对应投资，能够抵消一部分涨价带来的成本压力。相对应的，铜价上涨对于中小品牌带来的压力比较大，首先是原材料上涨会挤压企业利润，同时这部分企业对上下游话语权有限，一旦涨价就有丧失竞争优势的可能。</p> <p>因此，产业在线认为，家用空调市场后续出现价格战的可能性不大，主要取决于头部品牌的战略动作。</p> <p>以下是笔者对后续市场的短期预判和几点建议，希望和大家共同探讨：</p> <p>各种原材料涨价背景和原因并不完全相同，铜的涨价主要是由于全球<a href='https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----020104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜精矿</a>供应紧张，加之通胀预期增长造成的，有可能会造成铜价整体的高位上移。预期后续空调的成本压力会加大。</p> <p>由于家用空调市场特性和当前高排产、高库存的背景，更建议企业通过调整和优化产品结构来实现涨价，而不是一刀切式的跟风涨价。特别是中小企业，在2024冷年生存下来才是第一位的。</p> <p>原材料价格上涨既是挑战也是机遇，一方面“拷问”企业的成本控制和产品溢价能力，另一方面也倒逼企业改善渠道结构，提升高端产品比例，拓展多场景应用（新风、净化等），提升了全行业产品的议价空间。总而言之，面对成本高涨和高库存的双重压力，希望各个企业在价格策略上尽早达成共识，保障行业健康、理性发展。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block 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