2021年12月27日期货公司沪铝短线操作建议-我的钢铁网

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href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>现货价报20060元/吨，相较前值不变。宏观方面，上周受到市场对美国经济乐观预期减弱且避险情绪有所消退的影响，美元指数自高位小幅回落，但通胀预期下逐步收紧的货币政策仍对美元形成有力支撑，美元指数维持在96上方。供应方面，欧洲能源短缺困境仍无缓解迹象，其负面影响还在扩散，德国Trimet铝业公司旗下的两家冶炼厂预计产量减少近30%，这两家工厂的现货原材料和能源价格高达3800美元/吨，远高于伦敦金属交易所期铝报价约2800美元；欧洲最大的铝冶炼商法国敦刻尔克铝业公司在过去两周限制了产量，铝减产约3%；斯洛文尼亚的Talum铝厂已停24个电解槽，并计划将明年的计划产量减少50%，斯洛伐克的Slovalco铝厂已减产10%，计划明年将产量降至80%；黑山铝生产商KAP则可能面临关停的命运，涉及7.5万吨年产能；罗马尼亚铝企Alro已经启动了停产计划，该铝厂年产能29万吨，计划第一阶段减产60%，且已经启动了停产程序，目前停产产能尚未超过40万吨；荷兰的Aldel铝厂则已于10月11日停产，涉及产能11万吨，预计停产将延续至明年年初。需求方面，临近年底电解铝库存持续去库，归结原因一部分因为担心铝材出口退税取消的影响，各地大中型铝材厂普遍出现“抢出口”的情况，但从铝板带箔、铝杆、铝棒等需求来看，临近年底，多数铝材企业及经销商对本年度订单进行收尾工作，回笼资金，预期消费改善空间也不大。综上所述，沪铝在国内供给端无新增限产的情况下，短期国内基本面趋向转弱，或将限制价格上涨空间。</p> <p>新湖期货</p> <p>欧洲电价回落，美元走强，上周五外盘<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>回落，伦交所三月期铝价跌1%至2820美元/吨。沪期铝夜盘同样高开低走，主力2202活跃收低于20035美元/吨。早间现货市场交投尚可，长单交付及补库需求使得市场成交活跃。上海主流成交价格在20080元/吨上下，较期货贴水90左右。广东主流成交价格在20180元/吨。当前国内市场供需基本面矛盾仍不突出，产能恢复量仍有限，产量维持在相对低位，消费暂未出现明显走弱势头。短期价格受欧洲能源危机影响较大。美国对欧洲天然气的供应暂使得欧洲能源危机缓解，但问题远未解决。后期仍有反复的可能，原铝供应干扰担忧仍存。因此短期铝价或反复震荡。操作上建议暂且观望。</p> <p>弘业期货</p> <p>财政部：自2022年1月1日至2022年6月30日，继续不加征我为反制美301措施所加征的关税。周五俄国宣布天然气增产，欧洲天然气价格暴跌。能源下跌，美元上涨，周五<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>多数走弱。今日英国、香港等地因圣诞节假期休市。周五<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>小幅下跌，伦铝下跌收中阴，收于2820美元，沪铝夜盘高开低走，在60日均线承压收中阴，收于20035.沪铝成交持仓小幅下降，市场情绪偏向中性。政策因素导致沪铝成交不活跃，但基本面好转，后市可能继续随伦铝继续震荡上行。上方压力22000，下方支撑18500。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：万紫琴 021-66896822 </br> 资讯监督：王宏飞 010-57930636 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block 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