More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires, challenging fire fighters and land managers

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</a> <p class="text-uppercase text-low"> February 19, 2025 </p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-6"> <div class="text-right d-print-none"> <div class="article__info-item d-inline mr-4"> <a href="javascript:void(0)" role="button" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#summary-modal" tabindex="0"> <svg class="article__info-icon"> <use href="https://phys.b-cdn.net/tmpl/v6/img/svg/sprite.svg#icon_clipboard" x="0" y="0" /> </svg> <span class="text-muted">The GIST</span> </a> </div> <div class="article__info-fc d-inline"> <a href="javascript:void(0)" role="button" data-toggle="popover" data-div="#factcheck-popover" data-placement="bottom" data-trigger="manual" tabindex="0"> <svg class="article__info-icon"> <use href="https://phys.b-cdn.net/tmpl/v6/img/svg/sprite.svg#check-mark" x="0" y="0" /> </svg> Editors' notes </a> </div> <div class="d-none" id="factcheck-popover"> <p> This article has been reviewed according to Science X's <a class="text-info" href="https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-process/" target="_blank">editorial process</a> and <a class="text-info" href="https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-standards/" target="_blank">policies</a>. <a class="text-info" href="https://sciencex.com/help/editorial-team/" target="_blank">Editors</a> have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: </p> <p> <span class="tick-mark"></span> fact-checked </p> <p> <span class="tick-mark"></span> trusted source </p> <p> <span class="tick-mark"></span> written by researcher(s) </p> <p> <span class="tick-mark"></span> proofread </p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <h1 class="text-extra-large line-low mb-2">More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires, challenging fire fighters and land managers</h1> <p class="article-byline text-low"> by David Bowman and Grant Williamson, <a class="article-byline__link" href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> </p> <div class="mt-4 article-main"> <div class="article-gallery lightGallery"> <div data-thumb="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/tmb/2025/more-dry-lightning-in-1.jpg" data-src="https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2025/more-dry-lightning-in-1.jpg" data-sub-html="By February 12, more than a dozen fires had burned around 50,000 hectares in the state’s northwest. Credit: <a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153933/smoke-billows-from-bushfires-in-tasmania">NASA Earth Observatory</a>"> <figure class="article-img"> <img src="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800a/2025/more-dry-lightning-in-1.jpg" alt="More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires, challenging fire fighters and land managers" title="By February 12, more than a dozen fires had burned around 50,000 hectares in the state’s northwest. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory" width="800" height="530"> <figcaption class="text-darken text-low-up text-truncate-js text-truncate mt-3"> By February 12, more than a dozen fires had burned around 50,000 hectares in the state’s northwest. Credit: <a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153933/smoke-billows-from-bushfires-in-tasmania">NASA Earth Observatory</a> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div><p>Tasmania has been burning for more than two weeks, with no end in sight. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-18/tasmania-remote-west-bushfires-95000-hectares-burnt/104945100" target="_blank">Almost 100,000 hectares</a> of bushland in the northwest has burned to date. This includes the Tarkine rainforest and alpine ecosystems of Cradle Mountain that may never recover.</p> <div class="article-banner first-banner ads-336x280">  <div id='div-gpt-ad-1449240174198-2'> <script type='text/javascript'> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1449240174198-2'); }); </script> </div> </div> <p>The situation has taken emergency services and land management agencies by surprise. The seasonal bushfire outlook for summer 2024 suggested Tasmania's <a href="https://phys.org/tags/fire/" rel="tag" class="textTag">fire</a> risk was <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/seasonal-outlook/seasonal-outlook-article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-summer-2024" target="_blank">nothing out of the ordinary</a>. The state was also well prepared for bushfire fighting, particularly with <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/latest-news/2024/december/firefighting-aircraft-keeping-tasmania-safe-this-bushfire-season" target="_blank">specialized aircraft</a>.</p> <p>But this fire season has turned out to be anything but typical. Firefighting capacity has been stretched to the limit and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-15/firefighter-base-camp-tullah-oval-tasmania/104939162" target="_blank">interstate crews</a> have been called in.</p> <p>It all began with a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-04/tasmanian-lightning-strikes-spark-bushfires-in-wilderness-areas/104895332" target="_blank">massive lightning storm</a> on the evening of Monday February 3. The incidence of such <a href="https://phys.org/tags/lightning/" rel="tag" class="textTag">lightning</a> fires has been <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/2/33" target="_blank">increasing in Tasmania</a> <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/1/3/38" target="_blank">since the 1990s</a>.</p> <p>An official inquiry into the bushfires will no doubt be held, given the substantial social, economic and environmental harm—as well as the sizable costs associated with fighting the fires from the air in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-11/tasmania-west-coast-fires-people-stay-in-corinna/104922654" target="_blank">remote and rugged landscapes</a>.</p> <p>Nonetheless, important lessons are emerging from these fires, which speak to the broader, worsening threat as the climate changes.</p> <div class="w-100 mb-4 ads"> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-0536483524803400" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>  <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-0536483524803400" data-ad-slot="8188791252"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </div> <h2>Understanding the impacts of the fires</h2> <p>Fortunately, direct economic losses from these fires have been limited so far, despite <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-14/tasmania-west-coast-bushfires-warnings-friday-live-blog/104934404" target="_blank">significant disruption</a> associated with evacuation and road closures. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-13/overland-track-pine-forest-moor-hut-destroyed-tasmanian-bushfire/104930364" target="_blank">Tourism operators</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-12/threat-to-bee-hives-bushfire-west-coast-tasmania/104927438" target="_blank">honey producers</a> have been hardest hit.</p> <p>The fires caused brief but substantial <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-15/west-coast-tasmania-bushfires-community-support/104939888" target="_blank">smoke pollution</a> across the state, placing a range of people with medical conditions <a href="https://www.health.tas.gov.au/news/news/tasmanians-reminded-stay-safe-bushfire-smoke" target="_blank">at risk</a>.</p> <p>The full environmental <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-18/tasmania-remote-west-bushfires-95000-hectares-burnt/104945100" target="_blank">effects</a> and the benefits of prescribed burning are yet to be evaluated. Nonetheless, there is grave concern about damage to unique <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-06/huon-pine-grove-under-threat-by-tasmanian-bushfires/104901486" target="_blank">rainforests and alpine ecosystems</a>. If sufficiently dry the organic soils, or peats, that supports forests and treeless areas in western Tasmania are also <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/pdf/WF24061" target="_blank">vulnerable to combustion</a>.</p> <div class="ads w-100 my-4 article-main__more bg-light p-3 border" aria-hidden="true"> <p class="mb-3"> Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over <strong>100,000 subscribers</strong> who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. Sign up for our <a href="https://sciencex.com/help/newsletter/" target="_blank">free newsletter</a> and get updates on breakthroughs, innovations, and research that matter—<strong>daily or weekly</strong>. </p> <form action="#" name="nwsubscribe"> <div class="form-row align-items-start"> <div class="offset-lg-1 col-6 col-sm-8 col-lg-7"> <input type="email" name="email" class="form-control" placeholder="e-mail"> </div> <div class="col-sm-4 col-4 col-lg-3"> <input type="hidden" name="project" value="physorg"> <button type="submit" class="btn btn-sm btn-block btn-info">Subscribe</button> </div> </div> </form> </div> <p>We undertook a preliminary estimate of how much highly fire-sensitive vegetation—plant communities that will take more than 50 years to recover—may have burned. This involved comparing the current <a href="https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/149035" target="_blank">bushfire boundaries</a> or footprint, based on <a href="https://phys.org/tags/satellite+data/" rel="tag" class="textTag">satellite data</a> and field reconnaissance, to <a href="https://www.thelist.tas.gov.au/app/content/data/geo-meta-data-record?detailRecordUID=8d982040-7cd5-45e0-97fd-2b07d5f8e503" target="_blank">vegetation mapping</a> used for various purposes, including fire management. We put the figure at 19,716 hectares of vegetation. However, it's possible not all of this burned and islands of unburned vegetation persist within the broad fire boundary.</p> <p>Our estimation includes 10,419 hectares of temperate rainforest (10% of the fire area) and 462 hectares of alpine vegetation (0.45% of the fire area). Neither of these vegetation types can readily tolerate fire.</p> <p>Our analysis suggests about half of fire-affected rainforest areas have been previously burned by fires since 1982 (48%) and some small areas have burned twice (5%). Recurrent fires in the rainforest can result in permanent loss of this vegetation. Just how much damage has been done will require further assessment.</p> <div class="w-100 mb-4 ads"> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-0536483524803400" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>  <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-0536483524803400" data-ad-slot="8188791252"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </div> <h2>Emergence of new fire patterns</h2> <p>The number of fires ignited by lightning have <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/2/33" target="_blank">increased in Tasmania</a> since the 1990s. When the lightning occurs in storms without much rain, or where the rain evaporates before it hits the ground, it's known as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-04/what-is-dry-lightning-bushfire-victoria-bom/104889606" target="_blank">dry lightning</a>.</p> <p>Concerningly, in the last decade <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-71330-0_6" target="_blank">two other major dry lightning fire events</a> have occurred, likely a signal of a change in fire activity. As a result, fires are burning into areas that historically are rarely affected by fire, damaging the natural values of the Tasmanian wilderness.</p> <h2>This event could not be predicted</h2> <p>Going into summer, experts were concerned that soils across western Tasmania were particularly dry. <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/seasonal-outlook/seasonal-outlook-article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-summer-2024" target="_blank">This increased the fire risk</a> in the seasonal outlook.</p> <p>The recent rapid fire growth in Tasmania was caused by the unusual combination of regional drying (including dry soils), an extreme lightning storm and subsequent strong winds.</p> <p>But the sequence of events that caused this fire to take off could not have been predicted more than a week ahead. That's because it is <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/4/160" target="_blank">impossible to predict</a> lightning and windstorms outside the seven-day window of weather forecasts.</p> <p>What's more, <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL110381" target="_blank">our research shows</a> it is currently not possible to reliably predict which lightning strikes will start fire.</p> <figure class="mb-4" itemscope itemtype ="http://schema.org/VideoObject"> <meta itemprop="name" content="More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires, challenging fire fighters and land managers" /> <meta itemprop="url" content="https://www.youtube.com/watch/?v=WKrrhyfIISY" /> <meta itemprop="description" content="Fires continue to burn in Tasmania’s west, putting wilderness areas at risk (7.30)" /> <meta itemprop="uploadDate" content="2025-02-19T05:30:51-05:00" /> <meta itemprop="embedUrl" content="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WKrrhyfIISY"> <meta itemprop="thumbnailUrl" content="https://img.youtube.com/vi/WKrrhyfIISY/maxresdefault.jpg" /> <div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"> <iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WKrrhyfIISY?color=white" loading="lazy" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen style="width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute"></iframe> </div> <figcaption class="text-darken text-low-up mt-4" itemprop="caption">Fires continue to burn in Tasmania’s west, putting wilderness areas at risk (7.30)</figcaption> </figure> <h2>Rapid attack and fire suppression have practical limits</h2> <p>Massive lightning storms that ignite multiple fires overwhelm the capacity of firefighters to locate and immediately extinguish all the flames.</p> <p>Unfavorable weather conditions caused the west coast fires to rapidly grow. Firefighting shifted from attempts to extinguish the fire to instead contain its spread. This involved techniques such as targeted waterbombing, back burning and building fire breaks.</p> <p>These approaches have been successful in some cases, notably the deployment of retardant drops to contain the Canning Peak fire, saving extensive stands of conifer rainforest. But suppression efforts were imperfect, as the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-13/overland-track-pine-forest-moor-hut-destroyed-tasmanian-bushfire/104930364" target="_blank">loss of a private tourist facility hut</a> on the Overland Track has demonstrated.</p> <p>Managing these massive fires demands triage—making difficult choices about where to direct the firefighting effort. Effective triage requires a detailed understanding of the location of areas of high economic, cultural and environmental value. High-quality mapping of these sites and involvement of specialists in the broader decision-making process is essential.</p> <p>The Tasmanian government does have maps and expertise to guide triage, but there are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-06/huon-pine-grove-under-threat-by-tasmanian-bushfires/104901486" target="_blank">calls for more investment</a> to protect the region's ecological values. This is particularly important for small, localized sites vulnerable to fire, such as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-06/huon-pine-grove-under-threat-by-tasmanian-bushfires/104901486" target="_blank">groves of ancient Huon pine</a>.</p> <div class="w-100 mb-4 ads"> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-0536483524803400" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>  <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-0536483524803400" data-ad-slot="8188791252"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> </div> <h2>Broader lessons for fire fighting</h2> <p>Dry lightning storms are hard to predict, extraordinarily difficult to contain, and can cause substantial economic, social and environmental harms.</p> <p>Technology alone—such as that which combines satellites, artificial intelligence, drones and water bombers—is not enough to eliminate these fires. What's needed is a diverse portfolio of approaches, involving a combination of:</p> <ul> <li>reducing fuel loads by prescribed burning</li> <li>firefighting that is carefully targeted using high quality data</li> <li>expertise embedded in firefighting teams.</li> </ul> <p>Researchers and fire managers must also identify the best strategies for prescribed burning to reduce bushfire risk while protecting areas of high economic, conservation and cultural value.</p> <p>Climate change will bring more frequent monster fires—and fighting them demands a broad suite of investment.</p> <div class="d-inline-block text-medium mt-4"> <p> Provided by <a href="https://phys.org/partners/the-conversation/">The Conversation</a> <a class="icon_open" href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> <svg> <use href="https://phys.b-cdn.net/tmpl/v6/img/svg/sprite.svg#icon_open" x="0" y="0"/> </svg> </a> </p> </div> <p class="article-main__note mt-4"> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-dry-lightning-in-tasmania-is-sparking-bushfires-challenging-fire-fighters-and-land-managers-250063" target="_blank">original article</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/250063/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"> </p>  <div class="d-none d-print-block"> <div class="mb-4"> <strong>Citation</strong>: More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires, challenging fire fighters and land managers (2025, February 19) retrieved 21 February 2025 from https://phys.org/news/2025-02-dry-lightning-tasmania-bushfires-fighters.html </div> <div class="border text-muted p-3"> This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. 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Despite being well-prepared, firefighting resources are overwhelmed, necessitating interstate assistance. The fires highlight the challenges of predicting and managing such events, exacerbated by climate change. 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More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires, challenging fire fighters and land managers