Weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer El Niños

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12s4.4771525 10 10 10 10-4.4771525 10-10S17.5228475 2 12 2z"> </path> </svg> </button> </form> </div> <div class="content"> <main class="main rows-gap margin-top-1 margin-bottom-1"> <nav aria-label="breadcrumbs" class="rank-math-breadcrumb"><p><a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com">Cosmos</a><span class="separator"> » </span><a href="/earth/climate/">Climate</a></p></nav> <section class="article-container cols-4 md-cols-1 cols-gap-1 padding-bottom-4"> <article class="col col-span-3 post-260826 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-climate category-australia category-earth category-news tag-arc-centre-of-excellence-for-climate-extremes tag-anu tag-climate-change tag-el-nino tag-enso tag-greenhouse-gas-emissions tag-pacific-ocean"> <header class="rows rows-gap"> <h1 class="entry-title row">Weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer El Niños</h1> <div class="row primary-image has-featured-image " data-featured-image="GettyImages-1007071610-1200.jpg"> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content cols-6 md-cols-1 cols-gap-1 margin-top-1"> <div class="content-left-sidebar cols-1 col"> <section class="contributors md-cols-1 rows-gap"> <div class="row post-date"> <span class="published-date">August 24, 2023</span> </div> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/matthew-agius/" class="author row md-hide"> <img src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxOTk3IDE5OTciIHdpZHRoPSIxOTk3IiBoZWlnaHQ9IjE5OTciIGRhdGEtdT0iJTJGd3AtY29udGVudCUyRnVwbG9hZHMlMkYyMDIyJTJGMDclMkZoZWFkc2hvdC1tYS5qcGVnIiBkYXRhLXc9IjE5OTciIGRhdGEtaD0iMTk5NyIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+" data-spai="1" alt="Matthew Ward Agius" width="200" /><noscript data-spai="1"><img src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/headshot-ma.jpeg" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Matthew Ward Agius" width="200" /></noscript> <div class="bio"> <h3>Matthew Ward Agius</h3> <p>Matthew Agius is a science writer for Cosmos Magazine.</p> </div> </a> <div id="author-name" class="hide"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/matthew-agius/" class="bio"> By Matthew Ward Agius </a> </div> <div class="favourite__wrapper row cols"> <button class="showDialog simplefavorite-button" aria-label="Favourite button"> </button> </div> </section> </div> <div class="primary-content cols-1 col-span-5 col"> <div class="flexible-content "> <div class="copy"> <p>Human greenhouse gas emissions aren’t driving major changes in massive air circulation across the Pacific Ocean, but reduction in aerosols over time could lead to a weakening of processes that influence the length and frequency of El Niño climate events.</p> <p>These are the findings of an Australian-American collaboration investigating the impacts of carbon emissions on the Pacific Walker Circulation, published in the journal <em>Nature</em>.</p> <p>The Walker Circulation is the driving force behind the <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/enso-iod-weather-patterns-explainer/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO),</a> which shifts climate patterns between El Niño and La Niña ‘phases’ in the Pacific Ocean.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" width="1200" height="675" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxMjAwIDY3NSIgd2lkdGg9IjEyMDAiIGhlaWdodD0iNjc1IiBkYXRhLXU9IiUyRndwLWNvbnRlbnQlMkZ1cGxvYWRzJTJGMjAyMyUyRjA4JTJGR2V0dHlJbWFnZXMtMTAwNzA3MTYxMC0xMjAwLmpwZyIgZGF0YS13PSIxMjAwIiBkYXRhLWg9IjY3NSIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+" data-spai="1" alt="Gettyimages 1007071610 1200" class="wp-image-260828" title="weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer el niños 1"><noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" width="1200" height="675" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1007071610-1200.jpg" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Gettyimages 1007071610 1200" class="wp-image-260828" srcset="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1007071610-1200.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1007071610-1200-600x338.jpg 600w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1007071610-1200-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GettyImages-1007071610-1200-300x169.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" title="weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer el niños 1"></noscript><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A boy carries a lamb on his family’s farm in Coonabarabran during the 2018 droughts, described as the worst in memory for the central western region of NSW, though in a year that avoided an El Niño declaration by the BOM. Credit: Brook Mitchell/Getty Images</figcaption></figure> <p>These phases influence seasonal weather patterns in nations within and lining the Pacific, among them Australia, New Zealand, the Americas and parts of Asia.</p> <p>But the Walker Circulation has changed over the last 800 years, according to modelling performed by researchers from Australia and the United States.</p> <p>Led by Dr Georgy Falster, a climate scientist from ANU and the Centre of Excellence in Climate Extremes, and drawing contributions from colleagues at three US-based universities, the group originally wanted to analyse the impact of human greenhouse gas emissions on the Walker circulation.</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i0p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>While their expectation was for global warming to weaken the circulation’s strength throughout the industrial age, it appears atmospheric aerosols have had a counteractive effect.</p> <p>Atmospheric aerosols are tiny particles that can cool the planet by reflecting sunlight back into space. They include molecules like sulphur dioxide, which is part of the aerosol layer spewed out during large volcanic eruptions; desert dusts and sulphates from burning fossil fuels.</p> <p>“The expected influence of global warming on the Walker circulation is that it gets weaker,” Falster tells <em>Cosmos</em>. “That’s what climate models thought would happen, that’s what we expected.”</p> <p>“We didn’t see that.”</p> <div class="in-content-area related-box-wrapper content-third content-right margin-bottom-1"> <div class="gradient-title">Read More</div> <ul class="related-box article-listing"> <li class="cols"> <div class="article article-post"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/wmo-declares-el-nino/" class="thumbnail ar-16-9" aria-label="Article link"> <span data-spai-bg-on="1" class="image" style="background-image: url(data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxMjAwIDY3NSIgd2lkdGg9IjEyMDAiIGhlaWdodD0iNjc1IiBkYXRhLXU9Imh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGY29zbW9zbWFnYXppbmUuY29tJTJGd3AtY29udGVudCUyRnVwbG9hZHMlMkYyMDIzJTJGMDclMkZHZXR0eUltYWdlcy0xMDQ0NDkwMjA0LVdNTy5qcGciIGRhdGEtdz0iMTIwMCIgZGF0YS1oPSI2NzUiIGRhdGEtYmlwPSIiPjwvc3ZnPg==)"></span> </a> <div class="article-content has-very-light-grey-background-color"> <a href="/earth/climate/"> <span class="category earth-color"> Climate </span> </a> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/wmo-declares-el-nino/"> <h3>WMO declares El Niño, calls on governments to prepare</h3> </a> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> <p>Instead, Falster and her colleagues speculate the simultaneous effects of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gas emissions cancel each other out.</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i1p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>“So global warming is pushing the water saturation to be weaker, aerosols are pushing the water circulation to be stronger, which means that on average, they’ve just sort of cancelled out to nothing.”</p> <p>But some atmospheric aerosols are reducing. It’s been speculated, though not yet confirmed, that efforts from the global shipping industry to reduce their sulphate emissions in recent years have exacerbated the warming effects of the current El Niño on world temperatures.</p> <p>El Niño, while a natural phenomenon, typically results in higher-than-average global temperatures. In July 2023, the world experienced its hottest month on record. The loss of one of the atmosphere’s important reflective barriers threatens to make future El Niño years worse.</p> <a href="https://link.cosmosmagazine.com/OP59" class="newsletter-cta" data-device="mobile"> <img decoding="async" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAzMDAgMjUwIiB3aWR0aD0iMzAwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjI1MCIgZGF0YS11PSIlMkZ3cC1jb250ZW50JTJGdXBsb2FkcyUyRjIwMjQlMkYwMyUyRldlZWtseS1DYXRjaHVwLTMwMHgyNTAtMS5wbmciIGRhdGEtdz0iMzAwIiBkYXRhLWg9IjI1MCIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+" data-spai="1" alt="Newsletter" title="weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer el niños 2"><noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Weekly-Catchup-300x250-1.png" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Newsletter" title="weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer el niños 2"></noscript> </a> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Walker weakening may result in longer El Niños</h2> <p>The Walker circulation refers to ENSO’s atmospheric component. In essence, it’s a massive air cycle.</p> <p>In neutral phases – neither those of El Niño and La Niña – air travels west along the Pacific and rises into the atmosphere around New Guinea, moves back east at high atmospheric levels and then descends again in oceans near the Americas.</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i2p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>Falster’s research suggests that as the preventative effects of aerosols lessen, the effect of global warming will begin to exert its influence on the Walker Circulation, leading to a weakening of trade winds. Such an effect is consistent with El Niños. Ultimately, they predict a slower transition between ENSO phases – potentially leading to multiple El Niño or La Niña years before moving towards neutral conditions.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1200" height="675" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxMjAwIDY3NSIgd2lkdGg9IjEyMDAiIGhlaWdodD0iNjc1IiBkYXRhLXU9IiUyRndwLWNvbnRlbnQlMkZ1cGxvYWRzJTJGMjAyMyUyRjA4JTJGZ2Vvcmd5LWZhbHN0ZWFkLTEyMDAuanBnIiBkYXRhLXc9IjEyMDAiIGRhdGEtaD0iNjc1IiBkYXRhLWJpcD0iIj48L3N2Zz4=" data-spai="1" alt="Dr georgy falstead." class="wp-image-260827" title="weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer el niños 3"><noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" width="1200" height="675" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/georgy-falstead-1200.jpg" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Dr georgy falstead." class="wp-image-260827" srcset="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/georgy-falstead-1200.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/georgy-falstead-1200-600x338.jpg 600w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/georgy-falstead-1200-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/georgy-falstead-1200-300x169.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" title="weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer el niños 3"></noscript><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dr Georgy Falster Credit: Supplied.</figcaption></figure> <p>“We’ve seen this subtle change in the length of time it takes for the Walker Circulation to switch from one state to the next, it’s now switching more slowly between these El Niño-like and La Niña phases,” Falster says.</p> <p>She points to the current atmospheric conditions in the Pacific to explain this. While the <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/el-nino-declared-by-us-authorities/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">US-based NOAA</a> and <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/wmo-declares-el-nino/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">WMO</a> have declared El Niño as being underway, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/as-el-nino-looms-forecasters-remain-uncertain-about-impact-of-off-the-charts-ocean-temperatures-on-weather/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">looks for a coupling of Walker Circulation changes</a> to the marine component of the ENSO.</p> <p>Because of that, it’s <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/bureau-remains-on-el-nino-alert-as-world-heats-up/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">yet to declare El Niño as underway</a> in Australia.</p> <p>“This year is a good example of that, right,” Falster says.</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i3p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>“We’ve got this El Niño that is sort of developing in the Pacific Ocean, but the Walker Circulation is slower to respond than usual. That’s why the BOM hasn’t declared an El Niño yet.</p> <p>“[With a slowing of the Walker] maybe we’ll have more El Niños that are two or three years in a row, same with La Niña. And again slower on the transition, so maybe longer spent in neutral phase.”</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Massive volcanoes exacerbate weakening</h2> <p>Falster’s team also found that massive volcanic eruptions can have a similar, albeit temporary “El Niño-like” effect on the process.</p> <p>Specifically, they found the eruptions of Indonesia’s Mount Agung (1963), Mexico’s El Chichón (1982) and the Philippines’ Mount Pinatubo (1991) provided a far clearer indication of shifting the Walker circulation than greenhouse gas emissions.</p> <p>And although huge volcanic eruptions also release aerosols, these are pumped into the uppermost levels of the atmosphere and are distributed across the globe, limiting their cooling effects around the Pacific.</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i4p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>“So you can essentially say a volcano erupts and then the whole world has this aerosol effect,” Falster says. “Compared with human-emitted aerosols, which are really spatially concentrated in small areas, and that’s why they have the opposite effect.”</p> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://form.jotform.com/jsform/232318546515860"></script>  <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" width='1' height='1' style="opacity:0; height:1px!important; width:1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" aria-label="Syndication Tracker" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=260826&title=Weakening+atmospheric+circulation+could+mean+longer+El+Ni%C3%B1os" loading="lazy">  <div class="share-syndicate-wrapper margin-top-1"> <div id="cosmos-link-back">  <p>Originally published by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com" style="font-style:italic;">Cosmos</a> as <a title="Weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer El Niños" href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/weaking-atmospheric-circulation-could-mean-longer-el-ninos/" 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Weakening atmospheric circulation could mean longer El Niños