CINXE.COM

<!DOCTYPE html> <html class="client-nojs vector-feature-language-in-header-enabled vector-feature-language-in-main-page-header-disabled vector-feature-page-tools-pinned-disabled vector-feature-toc-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-main-menu-pinned-disabled vector-feature-limited-width-clientpref-1 vector-feature-limited-width-content-enabled vector-feature-custom-font-size-clientpref-1 vector-feature-appearance-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-night-mode-enabled skin-theme-clientpref-day vector-sticky-header-enabled vector-toc-available" lang="en" dir="ltr"> <head> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <title>Output gap - Wikipedia</title> <script>(function(){var className="client-js vector-feature-language-in-header-enabled vector-feature-language-in-main-page-header-disabled vector-feature-page-tools-pinned-disabled vector-feature-toc-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-main-menu-pinned-disabled vector-feature-limited-width-clientpref-1 vector-feature-limited-width-content-enabled vector-feature-custom-font-size-clientpref-1 vector-feature-appearance-pinned-clientpref-1 vector-feature-night-mode-enabled skin-theme-clientpref-day vector-sticky-header-enabled vector-toc-available";var cookie=document.cookie.match(/(?:^|; )enwikimwclientpreferences=([^;]+)/);if(cookie){cookie[1].split('%2C').forEach(function(pref){className=className.replace(new RegExp('(^| )'+pref.replace(/-clientpref-\w+$|[^\w-]+/g,'')+'-clientpref-\\w+( |$)'),'$1'+pref+'$2');});}document.documentElement.className=className;}());RLCONF={"wgBreakFrames":false,"wgSeparatorTransformTable":["",""],"wgDigitTransformTable":["",""],"wgDefaultDateFormat":"dmy", "wgMonthNames":["","January","February","March","April","May","June","July","August","September","October","November","December"],"wgRequestId":"e69a7553-ab95-4f6c-bd76-f4d7f5efb2ca","wgCanonicalNamespace":"","wgCanonicalSpecialPageName":false,"wgNamespaceNumber":0,"wgPageName":"Output_gap","wgTitle":"Output gap","wgCurRevisionId":1145767750,"wgRevisionId":1145767750,"wgArticleId":3259201,"wgIsArticle":true,"wgIsRedirect":false,"wgAction":"view","wgUserName":null,"wgUserGroups":["*"],"wgCategories":["Gross domestic product"],"wgPageViewLanguage":"en","wgPageContentLanguage":"en","wgPageContentModel":"wikitext","wgRelevantPageName":"Output_gap","wgRelevantArticleId":3259201,"wgIsProbablyEditable":true,"wgRelevantPageIsProbablyEditable":true,"wgRestrictionEdit":[],"wgRestrictionMove":[],"wgNoticeProject":"wikipedia","wgCiteReferencePreviewsActive":false,"wgFlaggedRevsParams":{"tags":{"status":{"levels":1}}},"wgMediaViewerOnClick":true,"wgMediaViewerEnabledByDefault":true,"wgPopupsFlags": 0,"wgVisualEditor":{"pageLanguageCode":"en","pageLanguageDir":"ltr","pageVariantFallbacks":"en"},"wgMFDisplayWikibaseDescriptions":{"search":true,"watchlist":true,"tagline":false,"nearby":true},"wgWMESchemaEditAttemptStepOversample":false,"wgWMEPageLength":10000,"wgEditSubmitButtonLabelPublish":true,"wgULSPosition":"interlanguage","wgULSisCompactLinksEnabled":false,"wgVector2022LanguageInHeader":true,"wgULSisLanguageSelectorEmpty":false,"wgWikibaseItemId":"Q631916","wgCheckUserClientHintsHeadersJsApi":["brands","architecture","bitness","fullVersionList","mobile","model","platform","platformVersion"],"GEHomepageSuggestedEditsEnableTopics":true,"wgGETopicsMatchModeEnabled":false,"wgGEStructuredTaskRejectionReasonTextInputEnabled":false,"wgGELevelingUpEnabledForUser":false};RLSTATE={"ext.globalCssJs.user.styles":"ready","site.styles":"ready","user.styles":"ready","ext.globalCssJs.user":"ready","user":"ready","user.options":"loading","ext.cite.styles":"ready","ext.math.styles":"ready", "skins.vector.search.codex.styles":"ready","skins.vector.styles":"ready","skins.vector.icons":"ready","ext.wikimediamessages.styles":"ready","ext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.noscript":"ready","ext.uls.interlanguage":"ready","wikibase.client.init":"ready"};RLPAGEMODULES=["ext.cite.ux-enhancements","mediawiki.page.media","site","mediawiki.page.ready","mediawiki.toc","skins.vector.js","ext.centralNotice.geoIP","ext.centralNotice.startUp","ext.gadget.ReferenceTooltips","ext.gadget.switcher","ext.urlShortener.toolbar","ext.centralauth.centralautologin","mmv.bootstrap","ext.popups","ext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.init","ext.visualEditor.targetLoader","ext.echo.centralauth","ext.eventLogging","ext.wikimediaEvents","ext.navigationTiming","ext.uls.interface","ext.cx.eventlogging.campaigns","ext.cx.uls.quick.actions","wikibase.client.vector-2022","ext.checkUser.clientHints","ext.growthExperiments.SuggestedEditSession"];</script> <script>(RLQ=window.RLQ||[]).push(function(){mw.loader.impl(function(){return["user.options@12s5i",function($,jQuery,require,module){mw.user.tokens.set({"patrolToken":"+\\","watchToken":"+\\","csrfToken":"+\\"}); }];});});</script> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=ext.cite.styles%7Cext.math.styles%7Cext.uls.interlanguage%7Cext.visualEditor.desktopArticleTarget.noscript%7Cext.wikimediamessages.styles%7Cskins.vector.icons%2Cstyles%7Cskins.vector.search.codex.styles%7Cwikibase.client.init&only=styles&skin=vector-2022"> <script async="" src="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=startup&only=scripts&raw=1&skin=vector-2022"></script> <meta name="ResourceLoaderDynamicStyles" content=""> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/w/load.php?lang=en&modules=site.styles&only=styles&skin=vector-2022"> <meta name="generator" content="MediaWiki 1.44.0-wmf.18"> <meta name="referrer" content="origin"> <meta name="referrer" content="origin-when-cross-origin"> <meta name="robots" content="max-image-preview:standard"> <meta name="format-detection" content="telephone=no"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png"> <meta property="og:image:width" content="1200"> <meta property="og:image:height" content="865"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png/800px-Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png"> <meta property="og:image:width" content="800"> <meta property="og:image:height" content="577"> <meta property="og:image" content="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png/640px-Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png"> <meta property="og:image:width" content="640"> <meta property="og:image:height" content="461"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=1120"> <meta property="og:title" content="Output gap - Wikipedia"> <meta property="og:type" content="website"> <link rel="preconnect" href="//upload.wikimedia.org"> <link rel="alternate" media="only screen and (max-width: 640px)" href="//en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Output_gap"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/x-wiki" title="Edit this page" href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit"> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="/static/apple-touch/wikipedia.png"> <link rel="icon" href="/static/favicon/wikipedia.ico"> <link rel="search" type="application/opensearchdescription+xml" href="/w/rest.php/v1/search" title="Wikipedia (en)"> <link rel="EditURI" type="application/rsd+xml" href="//en.wikipedia.org/w/api.php?action=rsd"> <link rel="canonical" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Output_gap"> <link rel="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/atom+xml" title="Wikipedia Atom feed" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:RecentChanges&feed=atom"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//meta.wikimedia.org" /> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="login.wikimedia.org"> </head> <body class="skin--responsive skin-vector skin-vector-search-vue mediawiki ltr sitedir-ltr mw-hide-empty-elt ns-0 ns-subject mw-editable page-Output_gap rootpage-Output_gap skin-vector-2022 action-view"><a class="mw-jump-link" href="#bodyContent">Jump to content</a> <div class="vector-header-container"> <header class="vector-header mw-header"> <div class="vector-header-start"> <nav class="vector-main-menu-landmark" aria-label="Site"> <div id="vector-main-menu-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-main-menu-dropdown vector-button-flush-left vector-button-flush-right" title="Main menu" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-main-menu-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-main-menu-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Main menu" > <label id="vector-main-menu-dropdown-label" for="vector-main-menu-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-menu mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-menu"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Main menu</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-main-menu-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> <div id="vector-main-menu" class="vector-main-menu vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-main-menu-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-unpinned" data-feature-name="main-menu-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-main-menu" data-pinned-container-id="vector-main-menu-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-main-menu-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Main menu</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-main-menu.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-main-menu.unpin">hide</button> </div> <div id="p-navigation" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-navigation" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Navigation </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="n-mainpage-description" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Main_Page" title="Visit the main page [z]" accesskey="z"><span>Main page</span></a></li><li id="n-contents" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Contents" title="Guides to browsing Wikipedia"><span>Contents</span></a></li><li id="n-currentevents" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Current_events" title="Articles related to current events"><span>Current events</span></a></li><li id="n-randompage" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:Random" title="Visit a randomly selected article [x]" accesskey="x"><span>Random article</span></a></li><li id="n-aboutsite" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:About" title="Learn about Wikipedia and how it works"><span>About Wikipedia</span></a></li><li id="n-contactpage" class="mw-list-item"><a href="//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Contact_us" title="How to contact Wikipedia"><span>Contact us</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-interaction" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-interaction" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Contribute </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="n-help" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Help:Contents" title="Guidance on how to use and edit Wikipedia"><span>Help</span></a></li><li id="n-introduction" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Help:Introduction" title="Learn how to edit Wikipedia"><span>Learn to edit</span></a></li><li id="n-portal" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Community_portal" title="The hub for editors"><span>Community portal</span></a></li><li id="n-recentchanges" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:RecentChanges" title="A list of recent changes to Wikipedia [r]" accesskey="r"><span>Recent changes</span></a></li><li id="n-upload" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:File_upload_wizard" title="Add images or other media for use on Wikipedia"><span>Upload file</span></a></li><li id="n-specialpages" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:SpecialPages"><span>Special pages</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <a href="/wiki/Main_Page" class="mw-logo"> <img class="mw-logo-icon" src="/static/images/icons/wikipedia.png" alt="" aria-hidden="true" height="50" width="50"> <span class="mw-logo-container skin-invert"> <img class="mw-logo-wordmark" alt="Wikipedia" src="/static/images/mobile/copyright/wikipedia-wordmark-en.svg" style="width: 7.5em; height: 1.125em;"> <img class="mw-logo-tagline" alt="The Free Encyclopedia" src="/static/images/mobile/copyright/wikipedia-tagline-en.svg" width="117" height="13" style="width: 7.3125em; height: 0.8125em;"> </span> </a> </div> <div class="vector-header-end"> <div id="p-search" role="search" class="vector-search-box-vue vector-search-box-collapses vector-search-box-show-thumbnail vector-search-box-auto-expand-width vector-search-box"> <a href="/wiki/Special:Search" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only search-toggle" title="Search Wikipedia [f]" accesskey="f"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-search mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-search"></span> <span>Search</span> </a> <div class="vector-typeahead-search-container"> <div class="cdx-typeahead-search cdx-typeahead-search--show-thumbnail cdx-typeahead-search--auto-expand-width"> <form action="/w/index.php" id="searchform" class="cdx-search-input cdx-search-input--has-end-button"> <div id="simpleSearch" class="cdx-search-input__input-wrapper" data-search-loc="header-moved"> <div class="cdx-text-input cdx-text-input--has-start-icon"> <input class="cdx-text-input__input" type="search" name="search" placeholder="Search Wikipedia" aria-label="Search Wikipedia" autocapitalize="sentences" title="Search Wikipedia [f]" accesskey="f" id="searchInput" > <span class="cdx-text-input__icon cdx-text-input__start-icon"></span> </div> <input type="hidden" name="title" value="Special:Search"> </div> <button class="cdx-button cdx-search-input__end-button">Search</button> </form> </div> </div> </div> <nav class="vector-user-links vector-user-links-wide" aria-label="Personal tools"> <div class="vector-user-links-main"> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-preferences" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-userpage" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Appearance"> <div id="vector-appearance-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown " title="Change the appearance of the page's font size, width, and color" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-appearance-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-appearance-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Appearance" > <label id="vector-appearance-dropdown-label" for="vector-appearance-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-appearance mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-appearance"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Appearance</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-notifications" class="vector-menu mw-portlet emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-vector-user-menu-overflow" class="vector-menu mw-portlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-sitesupport-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="https://donate.wikimedia.org/?wmf_source=donate&wmf_medium=sidebar&wmf_campaign=en.wikipedia.org&uselang=en" class=""><span>Donate</span></a> </li> <li id="pt-createaccount-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CreateAccount&returnto=Output+gap" title="You are encouraged to create an account and log in; however, it is not mandatory" class=""><span>Create account</span></a> </li> <li id="pt-login-2" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item user-links-collapsible-item"><a data-mw="interface" href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UserLogin&returnto=Output+gap" title="You're encouraged to log in; however, it's not mandatory. [o]" accesskey="o" class=""><span>Log in</span></a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div id="vector-user-links-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-user-menu vector-button-flush-right vector-user-menu-logged-out" title="Log in and more options" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-user-links-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-user-links-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Personal tools" > <label id="vector-user-links-dropdown-label" for="vector-user-links-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-ellipsis mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-ellipsis"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Personal tools</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="p-personal" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-personal user-links-collapsible-item" title="User menu" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-sitesupport" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="https://donate.wikimedia.org/?wmf_source=donate&wmf_medium=sidebar&wmf_campaign=en.wikipedia.org&uselang=en"><span>Donate</span></a></li><li id="pt-createaccount" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CreateAccount&returnto=Output+gap" title="You are encouraged to create an account and log in; however, it is not mandatory"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-userAdd mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-userAdd"></span> <span>Create account</span></a></li><li id="pt-login" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UserLogin&returnto=Output+gap" title="You're encouraged to log in; however, it's not mandatory. [o]" accesskey="o"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-logIn mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-logIn"></span> <span>Log in</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-user-menu-anon-editor" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-user-menu-anon-editor" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Pages for logged out editors <a href="/wiki/Help:Introduction" aria-label="Learn more about editing"><span>learn more</span></a> </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-anoncontribs" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:MyContributions" title="A list of edits made from this IP address [y]" accesskey="y"><span>Contributions</span></a></li><li id="pt-anontalk" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:MyTalk" title="Discussion about edits from this IP address [n]" accesskey="n"><span>Talk</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </header> </div> <div class="mw-page-container"> <div class="mw-page-container-inner"> <div class="vector-sitenotice-container"> <div id="siteNotice"></div> </div> <div class="vector-column-start"> <div class="vector-main-menu-container"> <div id="mw-navigation"> <nav id="mw-panel" class="vector-main-menu-landmark" aria-label="Site"> <div id="vector-main-menu-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav id="mw-panel-toc" aria-label="Contents" data-event-name="ui.sidebar-toc" class="mw-table-of-contents-container vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-toc-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-toc" class="vector-toc vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-toc-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="toc-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-toc" > <h2 class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Contents</h2> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.unpin">hide</button> </div> <ul class="vector-toc-contents" id="mw-panel-toc-list"> <li id="toc-mw-content-text" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a href="#" class="vector-toc-link"> <div class="vector-toc-text">(Top)</div> </a> </li> <li id="toc-Calculation" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Calculation"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">1</span> <span>Calculation</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Calculation-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Okun's_law:_the_relationship_between_GDP_gap_and_unemployment" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Okun's_law:_the_relationship_between_GDP_gap_and_unemployment"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Okun's law: the relationship between GDP gap and unemployment</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Okun's_law:_the_relationship_between_GDP_gap_and_unemployment-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Consequences_of_a_large_output_gap" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Consequences_of_a_large_output_gap"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Consequences of a large output gap</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Consequences_of_a_large_output_gap-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Controversy_on_the_EU's_output_gap_measurements" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Controversy_on_the_EU's_output_gap_measurements"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Controversy on the EU's output gap measurements</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Controversy_on_the_EU's_output_gap_measurements-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" title="Table of Contents" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Toggle the table of contents</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Output gap</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. Available in 14 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-14" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">14 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Produktionsl%C3%BCcke" title="Produktionslücke – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Produktionslücke" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecha_de_producci%C3%B3n" title="Brecha de producción – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Brecha de producción" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89cart_de_production" title="Écart de production – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Écart de production" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%95%84%EC%9B%83%ED%92%8B_%EA%B0%AD" title="아웃풋 갭 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="아웃풋 갭" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Output_gap" title="Output gap – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Output gap" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lv mw-list-item"><a href="https://lv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izlaides_starp%C4%ABba" title="Izlaides starpība – Latvian" lang="lv" hreflang="lv" data-title="Izlaides starpība" data-language-autonym="Latviešu" data-language-local-name="Latvian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Latviešu</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hu mw-list-item"><a href="https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibocs%C3%A1t%C3%A1si_r%C3%A9s" title="Kibocsátási rés – Hungarian" lang="hu" hreflang="hu" data-title="Kibocsátási rés" data-language-autonym="Magyar" data-language-local-name="Hungarian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Magyar</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%94%A3%E5%87%BA%E9%87%8F%E3%82%AE%E3%83%A3%E3%83%83%E3%83%97" title="産出量ギャップ – Japanese" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="産出量ギャップ" data-language-autonym="日本語" data-language-local-name="Japanese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>日本語</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-no mw-list-item"><a href="https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Produksjonsgap" title="Produksjonsgap – Norwegian Bokmål" lang="nb" hreflang="nb" data-title="Produksjonsgap" data-language-autonym="Norsk bokmål" data-language-local-name="Norwegian Bokmål" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Norsk bokmål</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luka_PKB" title="Luka PKB – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Luka PKB" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ro mw-list-item"><a href="https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decalaj_de_produc%C8%9Bie" title="Decalaj de producție – Romanian" lang="ro" hreflang="ro" data-title="Decalaj de producție" data-language-autonym="Română" data-language-local-name="Romanian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Română</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B7%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2_%D0%92%D0%92%D0%9F" title="Разрыв ВВП – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Разрыв ВВП" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Русский</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D0%92%D0%9F-%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B7%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B2" title="ВВП-розрив – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="ВВП-розрив" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="Ukrainian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Українська</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-vi mw-list-item"><a href="https://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%E1%BB%97_h%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_l%C6%B0%E1%BB%A3ng" title="Lỗ hổng sản lượng – Vietnamese" lang="vi" hreflang="vi" data-title="Lỗ hổng sản lượng" data-language-autonym="Tiếng Việt" data-language-local-name="Vietnamese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Tiếng Việt</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q631916#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Edit interlanguage links" class="wbc-editpage">Edit links</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> <div class="vector-page-toolbar-container"> <div id="left-navigation"> <nav aria-label="Namespaces"> <div id="p-associated-pages" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-associated-pages" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-nstab-main" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Output_gap" title="View the content page [c]" accesskey="c"><span>Article</span></a></li><li id="ca-talk" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Talk:Output_gap" rel="discussion" title="Discuss improvements to the content page [t]" accesskey="t"><span>Talk</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown emptyPortlet" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-variants-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Change language variant" > <label id="vector-variants-dropdown-label" for="vector-variants-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">English</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="p-variants" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-variants emptyPortlet" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> <div id="right-navigation" class="vector-collapsible"> <nav aria-label="Views"> <div id="p-views" class="vector-menu vector-menu-tabs mw-portlet mw-portlet-views" > <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-view" class="selected vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Output_gap"><span>Read</span></a></li><li id="ca-edit" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit" title="Edit this page [e]" accesskey="e"><span>Edit</span></a></li><li id="ca-history" class="vector-tab-noicon mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=history" title="Past revisions of this page [h]" accesskey="h"><span>View history</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Page tools"> <div id="vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-tools-dropdown" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-tools-dropdown" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Tools" > <label id="vector-page-tools-dropdown-label" for="vector-page-tools-dropdown-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Tools</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> <div id="vector-page-tools" class="vector-page-tools vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-page-tools-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-unpinned" data-feature-name="page-tools-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-page-tools" data-pinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-page-tools-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Tools</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-page-tools.unpin">hide</button> </div> <div id="p-cactions" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-cactions emptyPortlet vector-has-collapsible-items" title="More options" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Actions </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="ca-more-view" class="selected vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Output_gap"><span>Read</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-edit" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit" title="Edit this page [e]" accesskey="e"><span>Edit</span></a></li><li id="ca-more-history" class="vector-more-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=history"><span>View history</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-tb" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-tb" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> General </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-whatlinkshere" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:WhatLinksHere/Output_gap" title="List of all English Wikipedia pages containing links to this page [j]" accesskey="j"><span>What links here</span></a></li><li id="t-recentchangeslinked" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:RecentChangesLinked/Output_gap" rel="nofollow" title="Recent changes in pages linked from this page [k]" accesskey="k"><span>Related changes</span></a></li><li id="t-upload" class="mw-list-item"><a href="//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:File_Upload_Wizard" title="Upload files [u]" accesskey="u"><span>Upload file</span></a></li><li id="t-permalink" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&oldid=1145767750" title="Permanent link to this revision of this page"><span>Permanent link</span></a></li><li id="t-info" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=info" title="More information about this page"><span>Page information</span></a></li><li id="t-cite" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:CiteThisPage&page=Output_gap&id=1145767750&wpFormIdentifier=titleform" title="Information on how to cite this page"><span>Cite this page</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:UrlShortener&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FOutput_gap"><span>Get shortened URL</span></a></li><li id="t-urlshortener-qrcode" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:QrCode&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FOutput_gap"><span>Download QR code</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-coll-print_export" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-coll-print_export" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> Print/export </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="coll-download-as-rl" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:DownloadAsPdf&page=Output_gap&action=show-download-screen" title="Download this page as a PDF file"><span>Download as PDF</span></a></li><li id="t-print" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&printable=yes" title="Printable version of this page [p]" accesskey="p"><span>Printable version</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-wikibase-otherprojects" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-wikibase-otherprojects" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> In other projects </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="t-wikibase" class="wb-otherproject-link wb-otherproject-wikibase-dataitem mw-list-item"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q631916" title="Structured data on this page hosted by Wikidata [g]" accesskey="g"><span>Wikidata item</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-column-end"> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Page tools"> <div id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Appearance"> <div id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-appearance" class="vector-appearance vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-appearance-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="appearance-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-appearance" data-pinned-container-id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Appearance</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.pin">move to sidebar</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.unpin">hide</button> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:US_output_gap_since_1975.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/US_output_gap_since_1975.png/250px-US_output_gap_since_1975.png" decoding="async" width="250" height="96" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/US_output_gap_since_1975.png/375px-US_output_gap_since_1975.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/US_output_gap_since_1975.png/500px-US_output_gap_since_1975.png 2x" data-file-width="1168" data-file-height="450" /></a><figcaption>US GDP gap since 1975<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png/250px-Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png" decoding="async" width="250" height="180" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png/375px-Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png/500px-Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png 2x" data-file-width="1103" data-file-height="795" /></a><figcaption>US potential (light) and actual (bold) GDP estimates from the Congressional Budget Office in January 2009. The difference between the two represents the GDP gap.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:2009_Output_Gap_IMF.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/2009_Output_Gap_IMF.png/250px-2009_Output_Gap_IMF.png" decoding="async" width="250" height="205" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/2009_Output_Gap_IMF.png/375px-2009_Output_Gap_IMF.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/2009_Output_Gap_IMF.png/500px-2009_Output_Gap_IMF.png 2x" data-file-width="938" data-file-height="771" /></a><figcaption>IMF estimates of the 2009 output gaps as % of GDP by country</figcaption></figure> <p>The <b><a href="/wiki/GDP" class="mw-redirect" title="GDP">GDP</a> gap</b> or the <b>output gap</b> is the difference between <a href="/wiki/Actual_GDP" class="mw-redirect" title="Actual GDP">actual GDP</a> or actual output and <a href="/wiki/Potential_GDP" class="mw-redirect" title="Potential GDP">potential GDP</a>, in an attempt to identify the current economic position over the <a href="/wiki/Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">business cycle</a>. The measure of output gap is largely used in <a href="/wiki/Macroeconomic_policy" class="mw-redirect" title="Macroeconomic policy">macroeconomic policy</a> (in particular in the context of <a href="/wiki/European_Fiscal_Compact#Fiscal_compliance" title="European Fiscal Compact">EU fiscal rules compliance</a>). The GDP gap is a highly criticized notion, in particular due to the fact that the potential GDP is not an observable variable, it is instead often derived from past GDP data, which could lead to systemic downward biases.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Calculation">Calculation</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Calculation"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The calculation for the output gap is (Y–Y*)/Y* where Y is actual output and Y* is potential output. If this calculation yields a positive number it is called an <a href="/w/index.php?title=Inflationary_gap&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Inflationary gap (page does not exist)">inflationary gap</a> and indicates the growth of <a href="/wiki/Aggregate_demand" title="Aggregate demand">aggregate demand</a> is outpacing the growth of <a href="/wiki/Aggregate_supply" title="Aggregate supply">aggregate supply</a>—possibly creating <a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">inflation</a>; if the calculation yields a negative number it is called a recessionary gap—possibly signifying <a href="/wiki/Deflation" title="Deflation">deflation</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The percentage GDP gap is the actual GDP minus the potential GDP divided by the potential GDP. </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}\times 100}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>a</mi> <mi>c</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>u</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>−</mo> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> </mrow> <mo>×</mo> <mn>100</mn> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}\times 100}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/2c0f1a15129901ed28eb9edbf4f8ff782243fa7d" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.671ex; width:31.801ex; height:6.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}\times 100}" /></span>.</dd></dl> <p>For example, February 2013 data from the Congressional Budget Office showed that the United States had a projected output gap for 2013 of roughly $1 trillion, or nearly 6% of potential GDP.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Using <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \ln(1+x)\approx x}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>ln</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>+</mo> <mi>x</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>≈</mo> <mi>x</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \ln(1+x)\approx x}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/d6816f00e082c0b541ec35c6c188419ce880434e" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.838ex; width:13.509ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \ln(1+x)\approx x}" /></span> approximation, the following equation holds. </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}{\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}&\approx \ln \left(1+{\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}\right)\\&=\ln({\mbox{GDP}}_{actual})-\ln({\mbox{GDP}}_{potential})\end{aligned}}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mtable columnalign="right left right left right left right left right left right left" rowspacing="3pt" columnspacing="0em 2em 0em 2em 0em 2em 0em 2em 0em 2em 0em" displaystyle="true"> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>a</mi> <mi>c</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>u</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>−</mo> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> </mrow> </mtd> <mtd> <mi></mi> <mo>≈</mo> <mi>ln</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>+</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>a</mi> <mi>c</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>u</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>−</mo> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> </mrow> </mrow> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> <mtr> <mtd></mtd> <mtd> <mi></mi> <mo>=</mo> <mi>ln</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>a</mi> <mi>c</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>u</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mo>−</mo> <mi>ln</mi> <mo>⁡</mo> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mtd> </mtr> </mtable> </mrow> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}{\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}&\approx \ln \left(1+{\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}\right)\\&=\ln({\mbox{GDP}}_{actual})-\ln({\mbox{GDP}}_{potential})\end{aligned}}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/67060b849e013cfa7ea1c316499244b73e120e9d" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -4.171ex; width:64.16ex; height:9.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}{\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}&\approx \ln \left(1+{\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}\right)\\&=\ln({\mbox{GDP}}_{actual})-\ln({\mbox{GDP}}_{potential})\end{aligned}}}" /></span></dd></dl> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Okun's_law:_the_relationship_between_GDP_gap_and_unemployment"><span id="Okun.27s_law:_the_relationship_between_GDP_gap_and_unemployment"></span>Okun's law: the relationship between GDP gap and unemployment</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Okun's law: the relationship between GDP gap and unemployment"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Okun%27s_law" title="Okun's law">Okun's law</a> is based on regression analysis of U.S. data that shows a correlation between unemployment and GDP gap. Okun's law can be stated as: For every 1% increase in <a href="/wiki/Unemployment#Cyclical_unemployment" title="Unemployment">cyclical unemployment</a> (actual rate of unemployment – <a href="/wiki/Natural_rate_of_unemployment" title="Natural rate of unemployment">natural rate of unemployment</a>), GDP gap will decrease by β%. </p> <dl><dd>%GDP gap = −β x %Cyclical unemployment</dd></dl> <p>This can also be expressed as: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}=-\beta (u-{\bar {u}})}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>a</mi> <mi>c</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>u</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>−</mo> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="false" scriptlevel="0"> <mtext>GDP</mtext> </mstyle> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>l</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mo>−</mo> <mi>β</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>u</mi> <mo>−</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mover> <mi>u</mi> <mo stretchy="false">¯</mo> </mover> </mrow> </mrow> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}=-\beta (u-{\bar {u}})}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/a539934904ab49c5d3fbe3727b74fa0fc71a101d" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.671ex; width:39.021ex; height:6.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {\frac {{\mbox{GDP}}_{actual}-{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}{{\mbox{GDP}}_{potential}}}=-\beta (u-{\bar {u}})}" /></span></dd></dl> <p>where: </p> <ul><li>u is the actual rate of unemployment</li> <li>ū is the natural rate of unemployment</li> <li>β is a constant derived from <a href="/wiki/Regression_analysis" title="Regression analysis">regression</a> to show the link between deviations from natural output and natural unemployment. β > 0.</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Consequences_of_a_large_output_gap">Consequences of a large output gap</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Consequences of a large output gap"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>A persistent, large output gap has severe consequences for, among other things, a country's labor market, a country's long-run economic potential, and a country's public finances. First, the longer the output gap persists, the longer the labor market will underperform, as output gaps indicate that workers who would like to work are instead idled because the economy is not producing to capacity. The United States' labor market slack is evident in an October 2013 unemployment rate of 7.3 percent, compared with an average annual rate of 4.6 percent in 2007, before the brunt of the recession struck.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Second, the longer a sizable output gap persists, the more damage will be inflicted on an economy's long-term potential through what economists term “hysteresis effects.” In essence, workers and capital remaining idle for long stretches due to an economy operating below its capacity can cause long-lasting damage to workers and the broader economy.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For example, the longer jobless workers remain unemployed, the more their skills and professional networks can atrophy, potentially rendering these workers unemployable. For the United States, this concern is especially salient given that the long-term unemployment rate—the share of the unemployed who have been out of work for more than six months—stood at 36.9 percent in September 2013.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Also, an underperforming economy can result in reduced investments in areas that pay dividends over the long term, such as education, and research and development. Such reductions are likely to impair an economy's long-run potential. </p><p>Third, a persistent, large output gap can have deleterious effects on a country's public finances. This is partially because a struggling economy with a weak labor market results in forgone tax revenue, as unemployed or underemployed workers are either paying no income taxes, or paying less in income taxes than they would if fully employed. Additionally, a higher incidence of unemployment increases public spending on safety-net programs (in the United States, these include unemployment insurance, food stamps, Medicaid, and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program). Reduced tax revenue and increased public spending both exacerbate budget deficits. Indeed, research has found that for each dollar U.S. gross domestic product moves away from potential output, U.S. cyclical budget deficits increase 37 cents.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Controversy_on_the_EU's_output_gap_measurements"><span id="Controversy_on_the_EU.27s_output_gap_measurements"></span>Controversy on the EU's output gap measurements</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Controversy on the EU's output gap measurements"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The calculations of the output gap by the European Commission has come under heavy criticism by a range of academics and think tanks, in large part fostered by <a href="/w/index.php?title=Robin_Brooks_(economist)&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Robin Brooks (economist) (page does not exist)">Robin Brooks</a>, chief economist of the prestigious <a href="/wiki/Institute_of_International_Finance" title="Institute of International Finance">Institute of International Finance</a>, who have launched a "campaign against nonsense output gaps."<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The criticism addressed to the European Commission include the complexity and contradictions in the methodology (which is in fact the one proposed by experts sitting in the "Output Gap Working Group" and approved by finance ministers in the <a href="/wiki/Economic_and_Financial_Affairs_Council" title="Economic and Financial Affairs Council">ECOFIN meetings</a>). Critics argue the methodology results in a highly pro-cyclical output gap indexes, and sometimes implausible outcomes, in particular in the case of Italy. <sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In September 2019, several senior officials from the European Commission's including the Director General of the <a href="/wiki/Directorate-General_for_Economic_and_Financial_Affairs" title="Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs">DG ECFIN</a>, Mr <a href="/w/index.php?title=Marco_Buti&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Marco Buti (page does not exist)">Marco Buti</a>, have written a joint article refuting this criticism.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> But the critics said they remained unconvinced.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Phillips_curve" title="Phillips curve">Phillips curve</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/ZIRP" class="mw-redirect" title="ZIRP">ZIRP</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU">NAIRU</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Potential_output" title="Potential output">Potential growth</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=f1cZ">100*(Real Gross Domestic Product-Real Potential Gross Domestic Product)/Real Potential Gross Domestic Product | FRED | St. Louis Fed</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Wu9a">Real Potential Gross Domestic Product, Real Gross Domestic Product | FRED | St. Louis Fed</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFBarkemaGudmundssonMrkaic2020" class="citation web cs1">Barkema, Jelle; Gudmundsson, Tryggvi; Mrkaic, Mico (2020-12-06). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://voxeu.org/article/output-gaps-practice-proceed-caution">"Output gaps in practice: Proceed with caution"</a>. <i>VoxEU.org</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2020-12-06</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=VoxEU.org&rft.atitle=Output+gaps+in+practice%3A+Proceed+with+caution&rft.date=2020-12-06&rft.aulast=Barkema&rft.aufirst=Jelle&rft.au=Gudmundsson%2C+Tryggvi&rft.au=Mrkaic%2C+Mico&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fvoxeu.org%2Farticle%2Foutput-gaps-practice-proceed-caution&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/output-gap-nonsense-and-the-eus-fiscal-rules">"<span class="cs1-kern-left"></span>"Output Gap Nonsense" and the EU's Fiscal Rules"</a>. <i>Institute for New Economic Thinking</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2020-12-06</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Institute+for+New+Economic+Thinking&rft.atitle=%22Output+Gap+Nonsense%22+and+the+EU%27s+Fiscal+Rules&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ineteconomics.org%2Fperspectives%2Fblog%2Foutput-gap-nonsense-and-the-eus-fiscal-rules&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:0-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:0_5-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:0_5-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">"True, the output gap is an elusive concept that should never have become a gauge for conducting public policy, and it may be larger than thought.", <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.sp191218~12a0385d3b.en.html">Monetary policy: lifting the veil of effectivenes</a>, Speech by <a href="/wiki/Beno%C3%AEt_C%C5%93ur%C3%A9" title="Benoît Cœuré">Benoit Cœuré</a>, 18 December 2019</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-6">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="/wiki/Athanasios_Orphanides" title="Athanasios Orphanides">Orphanides, Athanasios</a> and Simon van Norden (2002) '<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/003465302760556422">"The unreliability of output gap estimates in real time"</a>', Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(4), November 2002, pp. 569–583</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite id="CITEREFLipseyChrystal2007" class="citation book cs1">Lipsey, Richard G.; Chrystal, Alec (2007). <i>Economics</i> (Eleventh ed.). Oxford University Press. p. 423. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780199286416" title="Special:BookSources/9780199286416"><bdi>9780199286416</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Economics&rft.pages=423&rft.edition=Eleventh&rft.pub=Oxford+University+Press&rft.date=2007&rft.isbn=9780199286416&rft.aulast=Lipsey&rft.aufirst=Richard+G.&rft.au=Chrystal%2C+Alec&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43902_EconomicBaselineProjections.xls">"February 2013 Baseline Economic Forecast"</a>. Congressional Budget Office<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">14 November</span> 2013</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=February+2013+Baseline+Economic+Forecast&rft.pub=Congressional+Budget+Office&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbo.gov%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fcbofiles%2Fattachments%2F43902_EconomicBaselineProjections.xls&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000">"Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey"</a>. Bureau of Labor Statistics<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">14 November</span> 2013</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Labor+Force+Statistics+from+the+Current+Population+Survey&rft.pub=Bureau+of+Labor+Statistics&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fdata.bls.gov%2Ftimeseries%2FLNS14000000&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite id="CITEREFBrad_DeLongLawrence_Summers" class="citation web cs1">Brad DeLong; Lawrence Summers. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://delong.typepad.com/20120320-conference-draft-final-candidate-delong-summers-brookings-fiscal-policy-in-a-depressed-economy-1.32.pdf">"Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">14 November</span> 2013</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Fiscal+Policy+in+a+Depressed+Economy&rft.au=Brad+DeLong&rft.au=Lawrence+Summers&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fdelong.typepad.com%2F20120320-conference-draft-final-candidate-delong-summers-brookings-fiscal-policy-in-a-depressed-economy-1.32.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">"The Employment Situation—September 2013"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. Bureau of Labor Statistics<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 October</span> 2013</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+Employment+Situation%E2%80%94September+2013&rft.pub=Bureau+of+Labor+Statistics&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fnews.release%2Fpdf%2Fempsit.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-12">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite id="CITEREFJosh_BivensKathryn_Edwards" class="citation web cs1">Josh Bivens; Kathryn Edwards. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.epi.org/page/-/pm165/pm165.pdf">"Cheaper Than You Think: Why Smart Efforts to Spur Jobs Cost Less Than Advertised"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. Economic Policy Institute<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">14 November</span> 2013</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Cheaper+Than+You+Think%3A+Why+Smart+Efforts+to+Spur+Jobs+Cost+Less+Than+Advertised&rft.pub=Economic+Policy+Institute&rft.au=Josh+Bivens&rft.au=Kathryn+Edwards&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.epi.org%2Fpage%2F-%2Fpm165%2Fpm165.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-13"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-13">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://bruegel.org/2019/06/the-campaign-against-nonsense-output-gaps/">"The campaign against 'nonsense' output gaps | Bruegel"</a><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2019-11-11</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+campaign+against+%27nonsense%27+output+gaps+%7C+Bruegel&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbruegel.org%2F2019%2F06%2Fthe-campaign-against-nonsense-output-gaps%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-14"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-14">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">2019, May, Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.iif.com/Portals/0/Files/4_IIF05232019_GMV.pdf">Campaign against nonsense output gaps</a>, Institute of International Finance</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-15"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-15">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.socialeurope.eu/output-gap-nonsense">"Output gap nonsense – Adam Tooze"</a>. <i>Social Europe</i>. 2019-04-30<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2019-11-11</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Social+Europe&rft.atitle=Output+gap+nonsense+%E2%80%93+Adam+Tooze&rft.date=2019-04-30&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.socialeurope.eu%2Foutput-gap-nonsense&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-16"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-16">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite id="CITEREFButiCarnotHristovMorrow2019" class="citation web cs1">Buti, Marco; Carnot, Nicolas; Hristov, Atanas; Morrow, Kieran Mc; Roeger, Werner; Vandermeulen, Valerie (2019-09-23). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://voxeu.org/article/potential-output-and-eu-fiscal-surveillance">"Potential output and EU fiscal surveillance"</a>. <i>VoxEU.org</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2019-11-11</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=VoxEU.org&rft.atitle=Potential+output+and+EU+fiscal+surveillance&rft.date=2019-09-23&rft.aulast=Buti&rft.aufirst=Marco&rft.au=Carnot%2C+Nicolas&rft.au=Hristov%2C+Atanas&rft.au=Morrow%2C+Kieran+Mc&rft.au=Roeger%2C+Werner&rft.au=Vandermeulen%2C+Valerie&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fvoxeu.org%2Farticle%2Fpotential-output-and-eu-fiscal-surveillance&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-17"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-17">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite id="CITEREFDarvas" class="citation web cs1">Darvas, Zsolt. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://bruegel.org/2019/10/why-structural-balances-should-be-scrapped-from-eu-fiscal-rules/">"Why structural balances should be scrapped from EU fiscal rules | Bruegel"</a><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2019-11-11</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Why+structural+balances+should+be+scrapped+from+EU+fiscal+rules+%7C+Bruegel&rft.aulast=Darvas&rft.aufirst=Zsolt&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbruegel.org%2F2019%2F10%2Fwhy-structural-balances-should-be-scrapped-from-eu-fiscal-rules%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-18"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-18">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222" /><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/output-gap-nonsense-and-the-eus-fiscal-rules">"<span class="cs1-kern-left"></span>"Output Gap Nonsense" and the EU's Fiscal Rules"</a>. <i>Institute for New Economic Thinking</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2020-01-28</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Institute+for+New+Economic+Thinking&rft.atitle=%22Output+Gap+Nonsense%22+and+the+EU%27s+Fiscal+Rules&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ineteconomics.org%2Fperspectives%2Fblog%2Foutput-gap-nonsense-and-the-eus-fiscal-rules&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOutput+gap" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.cbo.gov/taxonomy/term/26/recurring-reports">Recurring Reports | Congressional Budget Office</a> - Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates include US real potential GDP.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=f1cZ">100*(Real Gross Domestic Product-Real Potential Gross Domestic Product)/Real Potential Gross Domestic Product | FRED | St. Louis Fed</a> - US GDP gap</li></ul>    </div><noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?useformat=desktop&type=1x1&usesul3=0" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; position: absolute;"></noscript> <div class="printfooter" data-nosnippet="">Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&oldid=1145767750">https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&oldid=1145767750</a>"</div></div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div id="mw-normal-catlinks" class="mw-normal-catlinks"><a href="/wiki/Help:Category" title="Help:Category">Category</a>: <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Category:Gross_domestic_product" title="Category:Gross domestic product">Gross domestic product</a></li></ul></div></div> </div> </main> </div> <div class="mw-footer-container"> <footer id="footer" class="mw-footer" > <ul id="footer-info"> <li id="footer-info-lastmod"> This page was last edited on 20 March 2023, at 21:46<span class="anonymous-show"> (UTC)</span>.</li> <li id="footer-info-copyright">Text is available under the <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Text_of_the_Creative_Commons_Attribution-ShareAlike_4.0_International_License" title="Wikipedia:Text of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License</a>; additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the <a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Terms_of_Use" class="extiw" title="foundation:Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Terms of Use">Terms of Use</a> and <a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy_policy" class="extiw" title="foundation:Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy policy">Privacy Policy</a>. Wikipedia® is a registered trademark of the <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://wikimediafoundation.org/">Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.</a>, a non-profit organization.</li> </ul> <ul id="footer-places"> <li id="footer-places-privacy"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Privacy_policy">Privacy policy</a></li> <li id="footer-places-about"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:About">About Wikipedia</a></li> <li id="footer-places-disclaimers"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:General_disclaimer">Disclaimers</a></li> <li id="footer-places-contact"><a href="//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Contact_us">Contact Wikipedia</a></li> <li id="footer-places-wm-codeofconduct"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Universal_Code_of_Conduct">Code of Conduct</a></li> <li id="footer-places-developers"><a href="https://developer.wikimedia.org">Developers</a></li> <li id="footer-places-statslink"><a href="https://stats.wikimedia.org/#/en.wikipedia.org">Statistics</a></li> <li id="footer-places-cookiestatement"><a href="https://foundation.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Policy:Cookie_statement">Cookie statement</a></li> <li id="footer-places-mobileview"><a href="//en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Output_gap&mobileaction=toggle_view_mobile" class="noprint stopMobileRedirectToggle">Mobile view</a></li> </ul> <ul id="footer-icons" class="noprint"> <li id="footer-copyrightico"><a href="https://wikimediafoundation.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><picture><source media="(min-width: 500px)" srcset="/static/images/footer/wikimedia-button.svg" width="84" height="29"><img src="/static/images/footer/wikimedia.svg" width="25" height="25" alt="Wikimedia Foundation" lang="en" loading="lazy"></picture></a></li> <li id="footer-poweredbyico"><a href="https://www.mediawiki.org/" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button--enabled"><picture><source media="(min-width: 500px)" srcset="/w/resources/assets/poweredby_mediawiki.svg" width="88" height="31"><img src="/w/resources/assets/mediawiki_compact.svg" alt="Powered by MediaWiki" lang="en" width="25" height="25" loading="lazy"></picture></a></li> </ul> </footer> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-header-container vector-sticky-header-container"> <div id="vector-sticky-header" class="vector-sticky-header"> <div class="vector-sticky-header-start"> <div class="vector-sticky-header-icon-start vector-button-flush-left vector-button-flush-right" aria-hidden="true"> <button class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-sticky-header-search-toggle" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="ui.vector-sticky-search-form.icon"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-search mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-search"></span> <span>Search</span> </button> </div> <div role="search" class="vector-search-box-vue vector-search-box-show-thumbnail vector-search-box"> <div class="vector-typeahead-search-container"> <div class="cdx-typeahead-search cdx-typeahead-search--show-thumbnail"> <form action="/w/index.php" id="vector-sticky-search-form" class="cdx-search-input cdx-search-input--has-end-button"> <div class="cdx-search-input__input-wrapper" data-search-loc="header-moved"> <div class="cdx-text-input cdx-text-input--has-start-icon"> <input class="cdx-text-input__input" type="search" name="search" placeholder="Search Wikipedia"> <span class="cdx-text-input__icon cdx-text-input__start-icon"></span> </div> <input type="hidden" name="title" value="Special:Search"> </div> <button class="cdx-button cdx-search-input__end-button">Search</button> </form> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-sticky-header-context-bar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-sticky-header-toc" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-sticky-header-toc vector-sticky-header-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-sticky-header-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-sticky-header-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="Toggle the table of contents" > <label id="vector-sticky-header-toc-label" for="vector-sticky-header-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Toggle the table of contents</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-sticky-header-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <div class="vector-sticky-header-context-bar-primary" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="mw-page-title-main">Output gap</span></div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-sticky-header-end" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="vector-sticky-header-icons"> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only" id="ca-talk-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="talk-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-speechBubbles mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-speechBubbles"></span> <span></span> </a> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only" id="ca-subject-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="subject-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-article mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-article"></span> <span></span> </a> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only" id="ca-history-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="history-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-history mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-wikimedia-history"></span> <span></span> </a> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only mw-watchlink" id="ca-watchstar-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="watch-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-star mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-wikimedia-star"></span> <span></span> </a> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only" id="ca-edit-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="wikitext-edit-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-wikiText mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-wikimedia-wikiText"></span> <span></span> </a> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only" id="ca-ve-edit-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="ve-edit-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-edit mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-wikimedia-edit"></span> <span></span> </a> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only" id="ca-viewsource-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="ve-edit-protected-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-editLock mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-wikimedia-editLock"></span> <span></span> </a> </div> <div class="vector-sticky-header-buttons"> <button class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet mw-interlanguage-selector" id="p-lang-btn-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-wikimedia-language"></span> <span>14 languages</span> </button> <a href="#" class="cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive" id="ca-addsection-sticky-header" tabindex="-1" data-event-name="addsection-sticky-header"><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-speechBubbleAdd-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-speechBubbleAdd-progressive"></span> <span>Add topic</span> </a> </div> <div class="vector-sticky-header-icon-end"> <div class="vector-user-links"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="mw-portlet mw-portlet-dock-bottom emptyPortlet" id="p-dock-bottom"> <ul> </ul> </div> <script>(RLQ=window.RLQ||[]).push(function(){mw.config.set({"wgHostname":"mw-web.codfw.main-6455b7c8bf-7rm4f","wgBackendResponseTime":134,"wgPageParseReport":{"limitreport":{"cputime":"0.189","walltime":"0.255","ppvisitednodes":{"value":726,"limit":1000000},"postexpandincludesize":{"value":20158,"limit":2097152},"templateargumentsize":{"value":74,"limit":2097152},"expansiondepth":{"value":8,"limit":100},"expensivefunctioncount":{"value":1,"limit":500},"unstrip-depth":{"value":1,"limit":20},"unstrip-size":{"value":47554,"limit":5000000},"entityaccesscount":{"value":0,"limit":400},"timingprofile":["100.00% 165.012 1 Template:Reflist","100.00% 165.012 1 -total"," 79.73% 131.571 12 Template:Cite_web"," 4.59% 7.569 1 Template:Cite_book"," 0.97% 1.605 1 Template:Main_other"]},"scribunto":{"limitreport-timeusage":{"value":"0.108","limit":"10.000"},"limitreport-memusage":{"value":3766917,"limit":52428800}},"cachereport":{"origin":"mw-api-int.codfw.main-57c78dd8f-t9bjc","timestamp":"20250206142029","ttl":2592000,"transientcontent":false}}});});</script> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"Article","name":"Output gap","url":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Output_gap","sameAs":"http:\/\/www.wikidata.org\/entity\/Q631916","mainEntity":"http:\/\/www.wikidata.org\/entity\/Q631916","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Contributors to Wikimedia projects"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.wikimedia.org\/static\/images\/wmf-hor-googpub.png"}},"datePublished":"2005-11-28T00:17:21Z","dateModified":"2023-03-20T21:46:44Z","image":"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/0\/0a\/Actual_potential_GDP_output_gap_CBO_Jan_09_outlook.png","headline":"difference between actual and potential GDP"}</script> </body> </html>