Subventions pour l'achat d'une voiture électrique: un pur gaspillage

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couple </a> </li> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a class="hamburger-panel__list-item__link" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/voyage/"> Voyage </a> </li> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a class="hamburger-panel__list-item__link" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/styles-de-soiree/"> Styles de soirée </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="hamburger-panel__block yr-hamburger-menu-block" data-s-value="videos"> <a class="hamburger-panel__block__title" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/video/"> Vidéos </a> </div> <div class="hamburger-panel__block yr-hamburger-menu-block" data-s-value="plus"> <a class="hamburger-panel__block__title" href="#"> PLUS </a> <div class="hamburger-panel__block__content"> <ul class="hamburger-panel__list"> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a class="hamburger-panel__list-item__link" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/dans-la-lumiere/"> Dans la lumière </a> </li> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a class="hamburger-panel__list-item__link" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/la-question-a-1000/"> La question à 1000 $ </a> </li> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a class="hamburger-panel__list-item__link" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/gamers-la-rage-de-jouer"> Gamers, la rage de jouer </a> </li> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a class="hamburger-panel__list-item__link" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/avenir-du-travail/"> L'avenir du travail </a> </li> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a class="hamburger-panel__list-item__link" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/crise-du-fentanyl/"> Crise du fentanyl </a> </li> <li class="hamburger-panel__list-item"> <a 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url(https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049im_/https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims?quality=80&thumbnail=50%2C50&image_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fs.blogcdn.com%2Fquebec.huffingtonpost.ca%2Fmedia%2F2017%2F08%2Fheadshot-germain.jpg&client=cbc79c14efcebee57402&signature=754ca2f4e23db8fc400ba7e789bf5462e9b4d74e);"></div> <div class="author-card__details"> <span class="author-card__details-container"> <a class="author-card__details__name" href="/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/author/germain-belzile" aria-label="More from Germain Belzile"> <span class="author-card__details__name"> Germain Belzile </span> </a> </span> <span class="author-card__microbio"> Chercheur associé senior, département des interventions liées à l’actualité à à l’IEDM </span> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </header> <div class="page__content__row row--no-border"> <div class="col col--body-center"> <div class="entry__below-entry"> <div class="entry__content js-entry-content"> <div class="top-media yr-top-media"> <div class="top-media__image image"> <img class="image__src" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049im_/https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims3/GLOB/crop/5616x2808+0+627/resize/630x315!/format/jpg/quality/85/https%3A%2F%2Fmedia-mbst-pub-ue1.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fcreatr-images%2F2019-03%2Fc6302d00-5253-11e9-bfdf-c137c89b47e4" alt="Quand on inclut dans le calcul la subvention additionnelle de 5000$ d'Ottawa, le coût des subventions pour éliminer une tonne de GES passe à plus de 450$, soit 23 fois plus que le prix à la bourse du carbone ou celui de la taxe fédérale!"> <div class="image__credit"> Westend61 via Getty Images </div> <div class="image__caption"> Quand on inclut dans le calcul la subvention additionnelle de 5000$ d'Ottawa, le coût des subventions pour éliminer une tonne de GES passe à plus de 450$, soit 23 fois plus que le prix à la bourse du carbone ou celui de la taxe fédérale! </div> </div> </div> <div class="entry__body" data-part="contents">  <div id="sharebox_260x60" class="advertisement sharebox_260x60 ad_spot desktop-only"> </div> <div class="post-contents yr-entry-text"><blockquote><p>En collaboration avec Patrick Déry, analyste senior en politiques publiques à l'IEDM.</p></blockquote><p>Le gouvernement fédéral a annoncé dans son budget récemment déposé une nouvelle subvention de 5000$ à l'achat d'une voiture électrique, qui s'ajoute à celles déjà offertes par d'autres paliers de gouvernement. Cette subvention, comme celles déjà existantes, aura un effet bien plus grand sur les finances de l'État que sur l'environnement.</p><p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/http://www.iedm.org/fr/71216-les-subventions-aux-voitures-electriques-sont-elles-efficientes" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">L'IEDM avait calculé en 2017</a> le coût des subventions québécoises par tonne de gaz à effet de serre (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/ges/" target="_blank">GES</a>) non émise. Québec rembourse jusqu'à 8600$ pour l'achat d'une voiture électrique et d'une borne à domicile.</p><blockquote class="pull-quote"><span class="quote">Comme une voiture électrique émet environ 30 tonnes de GES de moins qu'une voiture conventionnelle pendant son cycle de vie, le coût pour chaque tonne de GES non émise par le remplacement d'une voiture à essence par un véhicule électrique est d'un peu moins de 300$.</span></blockquote><p>C'est très élevé. Au Québec, le coût pour éviter l'émission d'une tonne de GES est actuellement d'environ 20$ sur le marché du carbone (la taxe fédérale fixe aussi un prix de 20$ dans les provinces où elle s'applique). Donc, 300$ contre 20$, pour deux politiques qui visent à atteindre le même objectif.</p><p>Quand on inclut dans le calcul la subvention additionnelle de 5000$ d'Ottawa, le coût des subventions pour éliminer une tonne de GES passe à plus de 450$, soit 23 fois plus que le prix à la bourse du carbone ou celui de la taxe fédérale! Même en tenant compte du fait que cette dernière sera de 50$ en 2022, le coût du rabais à l'achat d'une <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/news/voitures-electriques/" target="_blank">voiture électrique</a> reste neuf fois plus élevé.</p><blockquote><p><strong>SUR LE MÊME SUJET:</strong><br/> » <a data-rapid-elm="hdln" data-rapid-pos="2" data-rapid-sec="{"col2":"col2"}" data-rapid_p="3" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="cpos:1;pos:2;elm:hdln" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/03/25/voiture-electrique-pollution_a_23700021/?utm_hp_ref=qc-voitures-electriques" target="_self">La voiture électrique, plus polluante ? Pas si simple</a><br/> » <a data-rapid-elm="hdln" data-rapid-pos="2" data-rapid-sec="{"col2":"col2"}" data-rapid_p="5" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="cpos:2;pos:2;elm:hdln" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/martine-rheaume/decarbonation-transport-mobilite-durable-voiture-electrique-subventions-budget-federal-2019_a_23697029/?utm_hp_ref=qc-voitures-electriques" target="_self">Une communauté pour la décarbonation des transports</a><br/> » <a data-rapid-elm="hdln" data-rapid-pos="2" data-rapid-sec="{"col1":"col1"}" data-rapid_p="3" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="cpos:1;pos:2;elm:hdln" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/01/08/canada-voitures-autos-electriques_a_23637096/?utm_hp_ref=qc-voitures-electriques" target="_self">Le Canada a besoin d'un plan national pour déployer les véhicules électriques, dit un expert</a><br/> » <a data-rapid-elm="hdln" data-rapid-pos="2" data-rapid-sec="{"col2":"col2"}" data-rapid_p="9" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="cpos:3;pos:2;elm:hdln" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/11/14/le-canada-compterait-le-plus-grand-nombre-demissions-de-ges-par-personne-parmi-les-pays-du-g20_a_23589555/?utm_hp_ref=qc-ges" target="_self">Le Canada compterait le plus grand nombre d'émissions de GES par personne parmi les pays du G20</a></p></blockquote><h2><strong>Des millions dans le vide</strong></h2><p>Depuis 2012, le gouvernement du Québec a dépensé plus de 220 millions$ pour «aider» l'achat de 47 500 véhicules et de près de 13 000 bornes résidentielles. Hydro-Québec a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://www.journaldequebec.com/2019/02/28/des-bornes-de-recharge-au-cout-de-25m-en-panne-de-clients" rel="nofollow">dépensé 25 millions$</a> pour un réseau de bornes de recharge encore sous-utilisé, et planifie ajouter 130 millions$ de plus au cours des dix prochaines années.</p><p>Le gouvernement fédéral prévoit ajouter <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1159327/budget-morneau-voitures-electriques-ottawa" rel="nofollow">300 millions$ sur trois ans en subventions à l'achat</a>, en plus de 130 millions$ pour étendre le réseau de stations de recharge au pays. Tout ça pour un résultat minime en termes de réduction d'émissions.</p><p>C'est déjà problématique en soi, ça le devient encore plus quand on garde à l'esprit que ces fonds profitent en grande partie à des gens qui auraient acheté une voiture électrique même sans subventions, et que ces mêmes acheteurs font partie du quintile le plus riche de la société. De plus, une partie non négligeable des subventions est captée par les constructeurs automobiles sous la forme de prix plus élevés. Le gouvernement américain a récemment réduit de 7500$ à 3750$ le crédit applicable à l'achat d'une voiture de marque Tesla; l'entreprise d'Elon Musk a réagi en baissant ses prix de 2000$.</p><blockquote class="pull-quote"><span class="quote">Un autre argument en faveur de l'élimination de ces subventions est leur effet très limité.</span></blockquote><p>Même si le Québec atteignait son objectif d'avoir un million de véhicules entièrement électriques sur ses routes en 2030 — soit vingt fois plus que le nombre actuel, qui inclut aussi des hybrides —, cela réduirait nos émissions de GES de seulement de 3,6% par rapport au niveau actuel. En somme, il faudrait retirer beaucoup plus de voitures à essence des routes du Québec pour avoir un effet significatif (le Québec compte présentement quelque <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/http://www.bdso.gouv.qc.ca/pls/ken/ken213_afich_tabl.page_tabl?p_iden_tran=REPERLE2XVP37-63534687731i8cs%7b&p_lang=1&p_m_o=SAAQ&p_id_ss_domn=718&p_id_raprt=3372" rel="nofollow">cinq millions de voitures et camions légers</a> sur ses routes).</p><p>La bonne nouvelle est que ce jour est probablement moins loin qu'on pense, et que cela ne nécessitera pas d'ouvrir davantage le gousset des subventions. Des études prévoient que le prix des voitures électriques sera compétitif avec celui des voitures à essence <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/environment/2019/01/21/deloitte-predicts-electric-vehicle-price-parity-by-2024" rel="nofollow">dès 2024</a> — sans subventions! — et <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/" rel="nofollow">qu'il continuera à baisser ensuite pour atteindre la parité</a> avant la fin de la décennie, alors que le coût des batteries continuera de décroître.</p><p>Pourquoi? Parce que les forces du marché sont à l'&oelig;uvre. Les constructeurs automobiles ont dépensé et continueront à dépenser des milliards pour développer des voitures à émission zéro, les vendre au prix le plus bas possible et se démarquer de leurs concurrents.</p><blockquote class="pull-quote"><span class="quote">Lorsque, dans un avenir rapproché, des voitures abordables et offrant une bonne autonomie seront disponibles, les Québécois se tourneront naturellement vers elles.</span></blockquote><p>Tout l'argent dépensé par nos gouvernements d'ici là ne sera qu'un coûteux gaspillage de fonds publics qui aura peu d'effet sur notre bilan environnemental.</p><p>Le Québec et le Canada ont déjà établi un prix sur le carbone. Comme nous l'a enseigné le plus récent lauréat du Nobel d'économie, William Nordhaus, un tel mécanisme de prix devrait remplacer toutes les subventions qui visent le même but. C'est une simple question de bon sens.</p><p>Québec et Ottawa feraient bien de suivre l'enseignement de Nordhaus, et de faire disparaître, sans délai, leurs programmes de subventions à l'achat de voitures électriques.</p><blockquote><p><strong>À LIRE AUSSI:</strong></p><p>» <a data-rapid-elm="hdln" data-rapid-pos="2" data-rapid-sec="{"col2":"col2"}" data-rapid_p="3" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="cpos:1;pos:2;elm:hdln" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/kevyn-gagne/chercher-emploi-souffrir-recruteur-delais-stress_a_23702539/?utm_hp_ref=qc-blogues" target="_self">Il faut souffrir pour trouver un emploi</a><br/> » <a data-rapid-elm="hdln" data-rapid-pos="2" data-rapid-sec="{"col2":"col2"}" data-rapid_p="9" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="cpos:3;pos:2;elm:hdln" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/etienne-alexandre-beauregard/laicite-debut-legault-legitime-bloc-quebecois-multiculturalisme_a_23702162/?utm_hp_ref=qc-blogues" target="_self">La laïcité n'est que le début</a><br/> » <a data-rapid-elm="hdln" data-rapid-pos="2" data-rapid-sec="{"col2":"col2"}" data-rapid_p="18" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="cpos:6;pos:2;elm:hdln" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190330203049/https://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/didier-delsart/christchurch-societe-ouverte-ennemis-popper-musulman-terrorisme-democratie_a_23701274/?utm_hp_ref=qc-blogues" target="_self">Christchurch, la société ouverte et ses ennemis</a></p></blockquote><p><em>La section des blogues propose des textes personnels qui reflètent l'opinion de leurs auteurs et pas nécessairement celle du HuffPost Québec.</em></p></div> <div class="yr-entry-footer"> <div id="modulous_article_bottom" class="ad_spot"> </div> <div class="tag-cloud yr-tag-cloud"> <span 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