Mysteel解读：小麦触底反弹，能否回到1.5元高点-我的钢铁网

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16:50</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="1196" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><strong>导语：4月5日，小麦市场在延续1个月跌势后终于迎来止跌，部分地区陆续开始回涨。截至4月10日，主产区小麦均价2889元/吨，较3日涨幅1.33%。且上调幅度、范围也在进一步扩大。近期小麦能否延续上涨行情，高点又在多少。</strong></p> <p><strong><img style="width: 620px; height: 331px;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2023/04/10/164408.png" alt="" /></strong></p> <p>此次小麦上涨并不是因为需求好转而带动，而是触底反弹。前期制粉企业收购价格不断下跌，最低时跌至1.35元/斤。距离新麦上市还有不到两个月的时间，如果任由价格继续下跌，等到新麦上市之后，市场价格再季节性回落，那么农户种植收益将无法得到保障。就按1.35元/斤价格来算，正常小麦亩产在800-900斤，每亩地收益为1200元左右。近三年随着化肥、种子、农药等种植成本大幅上涨，1.35元/斤无法保障农民收益，也不符合国家进一步提高农民种植收益的中心指导思想。</p> <p>所以在进入四月份后，国家政策方面开始出台政策干预。首先从4月12日开始，托市小麦拍卖取消主产区投放，虽然之前每月10万吨左右的投放量并不大，但对市场心态方面起到一定影响。另外各地区当地轮换粮陆续停拍，山东部分地区粮库恢复参与收购，收购价格在1.43元/斤-1.45元/斤，略高或持平于制粉企业收购价格。有了粮库托底，贸易商悲观氛围缓和，提振市场看涨情绪。</p> <p>近期小麦副产品下游需求回暖，制粉企业副产品价格上涨，缓解了前期经营压力。并且由于前期小麦原粮一直处于下跌态势，无法进行建库，所以目前有一定补库需求。但前期收购价格过低，再加上粮商惜售情绪再次趋紧，企业门前到车稀少，制粉企业开始大幅上调收购价格，吸引粮源。</p> <p><img style="width: 620px; height: 330px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2023/04/10/164854.png" alt="" /></p> <p>那么近期小麦市场价格能否回到1.5元/斤呢？目前制粉企业主流收购价格在1.45元/斤左右，个别企业在1.48元/斤高点。当前制粉企业开机低迷，原粮需求有限。再加上前期高成本库存尚有结余，整体补库量有限。贸易端对后市也不抱有大涨预期，部分粮商准备在1.45元/斤装车出货，届时制粉企业收购价格将在1.48元/斤左右。综上所述，目前制粉企业需求仍低迷，在少量补库后收购价格将再次趋稳。主流收购价或将涨至1.48元/斤左右，个别高点在1.51元/斤左右。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：魏锦伟 0533-7026106 </br> 资讯监督：王涛 0533-7026866 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> 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