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生猪行业能迎来转机吗？-我的钢铁网
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<p>“具体来看，2023年全年猪价走势主要分成四段：1—3月，市场先落后涨呈‘V’字型走势，运行区间在14—16元/公斤，前期市场承接去年以来的抛售压力，节后消费转淡，但冻品在低位的逢低补库，叠加收储对市场信心的提振，2月中下旬后价格逐渐走稳并反弹；3—7月下旬为第二阶段，此阶段市场供应逐步累积，冻品库存有增无减，叠加消费整体不及预期，供大于求的市场矛盾延续和加深，整体价格萎靡不振并持续探底；7月下旬开始市场逐步转暖并反弹，一方面年初仔猪疫病的损失导致此阶段供应减量，另一方面由于前期过度抛售导致大猪偏少，标肥差提前倒挂引发二育等投机力量进场抄底活体库存，多重因素共振导致7月下旬至8月出现了年内最大的一波反弹，主流价格运行区间13.5—17.5元/公斤；9月至今为第四阶段，其间供应重新恢复至偏高水平，叠加前期压栏和二育大猪再度冲击市场，且需求整体表现疲弱，价格持续下探至今。”五矿期货<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>分析师王俊表示。</p> <p>基于此，生猪行业也相应出现了一些变化。四川德康农牧食品集团股份有限公司期货负责人叶波表示，一方面，不同于传统周期，2023年长时间的亏损并没有导致行业深度去产能。在全行业讲究降本增效的情况下，龙头企业降本最简单直接的手段就是提高满产率，这就意味着只要没有面临资金压力，产能去化就很难。另一方面，行业内资金链紧张。2023年以来，某些龙头企业资产负债率高企，或转让股权，或出售资产，被迫开启“断臂求生”模式。</p> <p>事实上，2023年已经是连续第三个行业陷入亏损的年份。国泰君安期货研究所农产品分析师周小球、吴昊表示，2021—2023年，连续三年行业年度盈利为负，现金流不断收紧，强预期弱现实格局促使养殖端行为回归理性。</p> <p>与前一年相比，2023年下跌的行情有些不同。周小球、吴昊表示，2022年四季度行情下跌主要是由于供需节奏错配，二三季度养殖强预期及高利润带来的投机群体入场增多，供应大幅增量后置，导致四季度出栏压力增大，与此同时，旺季新冠疫情导致需求出现阶段性下降，供需错配，矛盾放大，现货价格大幅下跌。而2023年持续下跌的核心在于供应严重过剩，全年处于消化活体及冻品库存阶段，现货价格表现为磨底形态。</p> <p><strong>2024年上半年可能是本轮猪周期最后一次探底</strong></p> <p>“总体来看，能繁母猪处于高位，养殖效率显著提升注定了2023年生猪市场全行业亏损。”叶波表示。</p> <p>在王俊看来，2023年猪价持续下跌并运行在成本线以下，本质原因还是供过于求。“2023年供应承接2022年尤其是下半年涨价后的能繁母猪，基数高，效能提升，加之受疫病影响少，因此基础供应仍显得过剩；但去年的上涨急促而短暂，母猪增量有限，叠加快速下跌后上游主动降低体重，二育等市场投机参与也有所收敛，导致价格也缺乏深跌的基础。”他说。</p> <p>“具体来看，生猪价格持续下跌，一是生猪出栏及猪肉产量惯性增长，国家统计局数据显示，2023年前三季度全国生猪出栏53723万头，同比增加1693万头，增长3.3%，为近5年出栏量最多；分季度看，一、二、三季度生猪出栏同比分别增长1.7%、3.7%、4.7%，增幅逐季扩大。猪肉产量4301万吨，同比增加151万吨，增长3.6%，为近5年产量最高。二是消费恢复不及预期。2023年消费恢复增长较为疲弱，尤其是近期已经进入传统的猪肉消费旺季，但受前期气温偏高等不利因素影响，猪肉消费增长不及预期，滞后于同期的市场供应增长，导致生猪价格低位振荡。三是生猪产能去化速度太慢。虽然从2023年年初开始，行业已经进入去产能周期，但去化速度太慢，幅度偏小。截至11月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量仍然为4158万头，产能已经调减了将近一年的时间，但当前仍较4100万头的正常保有量略高。”王祖力表示。</p> <p>生猪“磨底”已久，展望2024年，是否会迎来转机呢？对此，王俊表示，价格“磨底”并不是未来上涨的充分条件，必须要看到产能出现大幅的去化，才能说2024年有涨价的基础。</p> <p>“2023年上半年，整体产能去化还是不够理想的，这或许会导致在2024年上半年的淡季，猪价仍将持续低迷。但随着年内亏损的持续，企业现金流受损叠加疫病的影响，2023年四季度母猪去化已经开始有所加速，或许会导致2024年下半年猪价出现一些起色，但目前看或仍不具备大涨的基础。2024年年底的猪价行情，则有赖于2024年一季度产业的悲观程度和产能去化程度，对此我们相对谨慎。未来重点就是要关注母猪存栏、仔猪出生数量，以及对节奏有影响的冻品、二育入场等变量的发展。“王俊表示。</p> <p>此外，周小球、吴昊介绍说，根据各公司财报显示，三季度末养殖上市集团母猪存栏量较二季度末已出现下降，2024年供应压力下降，有望迎来转机。由于当前市场空置栏圈较多，二次育肥模式优势提升，2024年需要继续关注二次育肥入场节奏。</p> <p>王祖力认为，从当前形势判断，2024年上半年可能是本轮周期猪价的最后一次探底，2024年下半年大概率会开启新一轮猪价的上涨周期，行业盈利将逐步好转。</p> <p>“未来需要具体关注四个方面，一是要关注产能趋势。当前生猪产能已经调减至接近4100万头的正常保有量水平，接下来要关注会不会继续调减，甚至有可能继续调减至正常保有量以下，如果这样，未来猪价上涨的空间会更大一些。二是要关注猪肉消费。要看接下来猪肉消费是否能够有效恢复，如果猪肉消费恢复较好，对明年猪价的预期可以更乐观一些。三是要关注疫情形势。持续低迷的猪价行情，使得行业疫病发生的风险增大，如果疫情防控形势不乐观，猪价的异常波动甚至产能的异常变动仍有可能发生。四是要关注养殖成本。行业发展的种种迹象已经表明，生猪养殖目前可能已经进入到‘微利’时代。在‘微利’时代，养殖成本高的行业主体，必然会面临被淘汰的局面。所以，养殖场户一定要做好猪场的管理，增效降本，这样未来才能在行业有生存空间。”王祖力说。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article 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