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2em"><strong>概述：</strong>1-10月份国内轴承钢粗钢产量同比减少10.03%，轴承钢材产量同比减少12.57%，出口同比增加40.77%。11月轴承钢市场价格小幅下调，成交表现欠佳，市场信心弱。截止到目前国内连铸不退火材低价资源在2350元/吨；中档材料报价2650元/吨；高端材料4000元/吨；锻材5400元/吨。随着全国天气慢慢转冷，临近冬储，工地开工率等都会受到一定影响，且国内外经济局势并未有明显改善，短期内难以看到实质性利好，整个钢材市场在年前出现反转的可能性很小。再加上年末商家资金紧张，预计12月国内轴承钢市场走势将呈现盘整趋弱。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>一、国内轴承钢市场情况</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>1、产量</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（1）1-10月产量：轴承粗钢、钢材同比减少</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">根据特钢协统计数据显示，2015年1-10月份我国主要优特钢企业轴承钢粗钢产量为224.31万吨，与去年同期相比减少10.03%；2015年1-10月份我国主要优特钢企业轴承钢材产量为212.37万吨，与去年同期相比减少12.57%。详见图1.</p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>图1：2014年至今全国轴承钢粗钢、钢材产量变化情况</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong><img width="519" height="349" alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142501.jpg" /></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">数据来源：特钢协、上海钢联</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（2）2015年1-10月轴承钢各生产企业成品材产量：大部分钢厂产量同比减少</p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>表1：2015年1-10月份全国轴承钢生产企业钢材产量情况（单位：吨）</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong><img width="459" height="463" alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142514.png" /></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">数据来源：特钢协、上海钢联</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">由表1可见，2015年1-10月份轴承钢（粗钢）产量前三的仍为中信特钢（新冶钢和兴澄特钢）、东特和巨能，排名整体变化不大（其中沙钢只统计淮钢的产量）。在这23家钢厂中，轴承钢粗钢产量相对去年同期仅有1家增加，20家减少，2家不产出。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>2、出口：10月出口同比小幅减少</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">2015年10月国内轴承钢出口量12986吨，同比增加40.77%，环比增加24.88%。1-10月累计出口105085吨，较去年同期减少9.26%。10月份轴承钢出口量排前三的企业仍为兴澄特钢、大冶特钢和东北特钢，其中兴澄特钢出口量为11311吨，占据了出口量的绝大部分。</p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>图2：今年以来轴承钢出口变化情况</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong><img width="569" height="323" alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142557.jpg" /></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>3、11月主流轴承钢价格政策：多数钢厂弱势运行</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>表2：国内轴承钢出厂价</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong><img width="289" height="229" alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142635.png" /></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">11月国内轴承钢市场持续探底之旅，总体跌幅小于前期，主流资源跌幅在50-80元/吨左右，符合前期预测。受到下游需求较差、各企业资金紧张等原因影响，12月国内轴承钢价格走势仍将呈探底趋势。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>二、相关市场信息</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>1、原料价格：</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（1）铁矿石</p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>图3：2015开始至今Mysteel进口矿价格指数变化情况</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><img width="543" height="333" alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142659.jpg" /></p> <p> </p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（2）废钢</p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>图4：2015开始至今普碳废钢价格变化情况</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong><img width="565" height="309" alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142711.jpg" /></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（3）高碳铬铁</p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>图5：2015年开始至今高碳铬铁FeCr55，C800价格变化情况</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong><img width="522" height="322" alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142721.jpg" /></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">11月进口矿价格持续下跌，整体仍显弱势，月末在44美元/干吨；普碳废钢继续走低，市场依旧低迷，月末均价在1004元/吨，较上月末下调7.21%左右；高碳铬铁各地均价继续下跌，月末均价在5900元/吨。需求淡季，北方钢厂停产检修规模扩大，而南方则受北材南下困扰。商家对市场普遍缺乏信心，供需压力依旧较大，短期内原料价格难有起色。预计12月原材料市场或以趋弱走势为主。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>2、下游行业</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（1）滚动轴承</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">10月国内滚动轴承产量149684万套，9月产量162704万套，与上月同期减少8.01%。</p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong>图6：近一年滚动轴承产量变化情况</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center; text-indent: 2em"><strong><img width="577" height="343" alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2015/11/30/142846.png" /></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（2）摩托车</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">据中国汽车工业协会统计分析，2015年10月，摩托车产销明显下降，产销量仅好于2月，为今年以来月度产销次低；1-10月，全行业累计产销降幅进一步扩大。10月，全行业完成摩托车产销142.92万辆和145.23万辆，环比下降10.74%和9.41%；同比下降20.38%和18.96%，同比降幅比9月扩大7.38和5.04个百分点。1-10月，全行业累计完成产销1568.42万辆和1572.2万辆，同比下降9.98%和10.01%，降幅比1-9月扩大1.2和1.03个百分点。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（3）汽车</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">据中国汽车工业协会统计分析，2015年10月，汽车产销比上月有较大增长；产量同比结束下降，销量增幅继续回升。1-10月，汽车产销增速比1-9月均有不同程度回升，其中产量结束了下降势头，销量小幅回升。10月，汽车生产218.87万辆，环比增长15.54%，同比增长7.06%；销售222.16万辆，环比增长9.72%，同比增长11.79%。1-10月，汽车产销1928.03万辆和1927.81万辆，同比增长0.02%和1.51%。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em"><strong>三、结论</strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">11月份国内轴承钢市场继续承压前行，成交情况并不如人意。根据笔者调查，目前大部分轴承钢钢厂处于不同程度亏损，这使得不少钢厂的生产积极性下降，还有部分钢厂进行了品种结构的调整，减少轴承钢的产量，其中尤以“普转优”钢厂突出。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">随着年底的临近，商家资金更为紧张，再加上目前下游需求仍然欠佳，钢厂接单困难。预计年前轴承钢市场表现难见有力反转，下游需求水平不会有宽幅的放量，整体供需压力不减。好在贸易商手上库存并不算高，后市下跌的空间不会很大，但促涨的动力更为薄弱。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">综上所述，预计12月国内轴承钢市场上行缺乏动力，整体仍将呈现盘整趋弱的态势。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">（mysteel.com资讯部编辑，请勿转载）</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">资讯编辑：顾颖021-26093810</p> <a style="color:#F00;" href="http://data.glinfo.com/" target="_blank"> [需要查看更多数据，请免费试用钢联数据]</a> <br /> </div> <div class="text" id="btext"></div> <div id="a5"></div> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/common/3.0/js/contentFeedback.js?v=20240808" charset="gbk"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/common/comment/js/comment.js?v=20231130" charset="gbk"></script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/common/permissions/copyRight.js" charset="utf-8"></script><div class="box"> <h3 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