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International Model Analyses and Forecasts
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PAGE CONTENT BEGINS > <!==============================================================> <TABLE WIDTH=580 CELLPADDING=18><TR><TD> <!------------- TITLE ----------------> <CENTER> <FONT face="Arial" style="font-size:22px" color=#000000><b> Model Guidance </B></FONT> </CENTER> <BR><TABLE HEIGHT=4><TR><TD> </TD></TR></TABLE> <font face="Arial" style="font-size:13px" color=#000000> <!-------------------- Desk Forecasting Tools ------------------------> <B> 1.International Desk Forecasting Tools - <A HREF="/international/wng/"><FONT STYLE="color:3366ff"> Access </FONT></A></B> <BR> <TABLE><TR><TD WIDTH=7> </TD><TD WIDTH=550> <FONT STYLE="font-size:11px;color:777777"> Operational forecasting loops developed at the WPC International Desks, to aid with the forecasting of quantitative precipitation, severe convection, surface fronts, and other impactful types of weather. </FONT> </TD></TR></TABLE> <TABLE HEIGHT=7><TR><TD></TD></TR></TABLE> <!-------------------- GDI ------------------------> <B> 2.The Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI) - <A HREF="/international/gdi/"><FONT STYLE="color:3366ff"> Access </FONT></A></B> <BR> <TABLE><TR><TD WIDTH=7> </TD><TD WIDTH=550> <FONT STYLE="font-size:11px;color:777777"> Thermodynamic index developed in 2014 to improve the forecasting of different types of tropical and subtropical convection. </FONT> </TD></TR></TABLE> <TABLE HEIGHT=7><TR><TD></TD></TR></TABLE> <!----------------- Model Analyses and Forecasts ---------------------> <B> 3.Model Analyses and Forecasts <BR> <TABLE><TR><TD WIDTH=7> </TD><TD WIDTH=550> <A HREF="#Caribbean"><FONT STYLE="font-size:13px;color:3366ff"><b> The Caribbean and Central America <b></FONT></A><BR> <A HREF="#South_America"><FONT STYLE="font-size:13px;color:3366ff"><b> South America <b></FONT></A><BR> <A HREF="#Atlantic"><FONT STYLE="font-size:13px;color:3366ff"><b> The Atlantic <b></FONT></A><BR> </TD></TR></TABLE> </B> <TABLE HEIGHT=7><TR><TD></TD></TR></TABLE> <!------------------ Streamline Analysis Charts ---------------------> <B> 4.Daily wind charts for streamline analysis - <A HREF="http://ftp.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/windcharts/"><FONT STYLE="color:3366ff"> Access </FONT></A></B> <BR> <TABLE><TR><TD WIDTH=7> </TD><TD WIDTH=550> <FONT STYLE="font-size:11px;color:777777"> GFS-Model wind charts used at the International Desks on a daily basis to perform streamline analysis. </FONT> </TD></TR></TABLE> <TABLE HEIGHT=7><TR><TD></TD></TR></TABLE> <!------------------ Streamline Analysis Charts ---------------------> <B> 5. Quantitative Precipitation Verification Sites - <A HREF="/international/verif2019/"><FONT STYLE="color:3366ff"> Access </FONT></A></B> <BR> <TABLE><TR><TD WIDTH=7> </TD><TD WIDTH=550> <FONT STYLE="font-size:11px;color:777777"> International Weather Service websites with daily rainfall observations and analysis for QPF verification. </FONT> </TD></TR></TABLE> <TABLE HEIGHT=7><TR><TD></TD></TR></TABLE> <!========================================================================> <! MODEL GUIDANCE TABLES > <!========================================================================> <BR><BR> <CENTER> <TABLE CELLPADDING=25><TR><TD> <!========================================================================> <! CARIBBEAN BEGIN > <!========================================================================> <p> <TABLE BORDER="1" CELLPADDING="2" CELLSPACING="1" BGCOLOR="white" SUMMARY="This table contains links to the different forecast models, divided by time of creation, model, and image size" id="table1"> <caption><font style="font-size:18px" face="Arial"><a name="Caribbean"><b> Caribbean and Central America </b></a></font></caption> <TR BGCOLOR="#0a2390"> <TD ALIGN="CENTER"> </TD> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 00 UTC </FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 06 UTC </FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 12 UTC </FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 18 UTC </FONT></TH> </TR> <!------------------------------------- CARIBBEAN NAM ------------------------> <TR BGCOLOR="#00ffff"> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#0a2390"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">NAM</FONT></TH> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"><b> <br><a href="crb_nam00.shtml">00 NAM</a> </b><br>December 01 </font><br><br> </TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"> <b> <!br><a href="crb_nam12.shtml">12 NAM</a></b><br>November 30 </font> </TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> </TR> <!------------------------------------- CARIBBEAN GFS ------------------------> <TR> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#0a2390"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> GFS </FONT></TH> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"><b> <br><a href="crb_gfs00.shtml">00 GFS</a> </b><br>November 30 </font><br><br> </TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b> <a href="crb_gfs12.shtml">12 GFS</a></b><br>November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> </TR> <tr> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#0a2390" rowspan="3"><font color="#FFFF00" face="Arial">GFS<font size="1"><br> Ensembles</font></font></TH> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" rowspan="2" colspan="2"><font face="Arial"> <b>Probability of <br>Precipitation</b></font> </td> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" colspan="2"><font face="Arial"> <b><a href="ens_crb_pqpf/crb_pqpf00.shtml">00Z PQPF</a></b><br>November 30 </font> </TD> </tr> <tr> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" colspan="2"><font face="Arial"> <b><a href="ens_crb_pqpf/crb_pqpf12.shtml">12Z PQPF</a></b><br>November 30 </font> </TD> </tr> <tr> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99" colspan="2" height="40"> <font face="Arial"> <b><a href="/mike/ens_crb/html_files/carib_main.html">Spaghetti Plots</a></b></font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99" colspan="2"> <font face="Arial"> <b><a href="/mike/ens_crb_pcpn/ens_crb_pcpn.php">24-Hour QPF</a></b></font></TD> </tr> <tr> <!------------------------------------- CARIBBEAN OBSERVED ------------------------> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" colspan="5"> <span style="font-weight: 400"> <font face="Arial" style="font-size:14px"><b> Observations </b></font></span></TH> </tr> <tr> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#0A2390"> </TD> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#0A2390"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">00 UTC</FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#0A2390"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">06 UTC</FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#0A2390"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">12 UTC</FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#0A2390"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">18 UTC</FONT></TH> </tr> <tr> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#0a2390"><font face="Arial" color="#FFFF00"> Sfc <br> <font size="1">West</font></font></TH> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b> <br><a href="/mike/sfc/westcrb_00.gif">00 Sfc</a></b><br>November 30 </font><br><br></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b> <a href="/mike/sfc/westcrb_06.gif">06 Sfc</a></b><br>November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b> <a href="/mike/sfc/westcrb_12.gif">12 Sfc</a></b><br>November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b> <a href="/mike/sfc/westcrb_18.gif">18 Sfc</a></b><br>November 30 </font></TD> </tr> <!----------------------- East Caribbean -----------------------> <tr> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#0A2390"><font face="Arial" color="#ffff00"> <b><font size="3">Sfc </font></b><br> </font><font face="Arial" size="1" color="#FFFF00">East</font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"><font face="Arial"> <br><b><a href="/mike/sfc/eastcrb_00.gif">00 Sfc</a></b><br> November 30 </font><br><br></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"><font face="Arial"> <b><br><a href="/mike/sfc/eastcrb_06.gif">06 Sfc</a></b><br>November 30 </font><br><br></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"> <b><br><a href="/mike/sfc/eastcrb_12.gif">12 Sfc</a></b><br>November 30 </font><br><br></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"><font face="Arial"> <b><br><a href="/mike/sfc/eastcrb_18.gif">18 Sfc</a></b><br>November 30 </font><br><br></TD> </tr> <tr> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#99FF99" colspan="5"><font face="Arial"><br> <b><a href="/mike/pcpn/crb_24hrpcpn.gif"> <font size="2">GTS Observed 24 Hr Precipitation (color)</font></a></b><br> </font></TH> </tr> </TABLE> <p> </p> <!========================================================================> <! CARIBBEAN END > <!========================================================================> <!========================================================================> <! SOUTH AMERICA BEGIN > <!========================================================================> <TABLE BORDER="2" CELLPADDING="2" CELLSPACING="1" BGCOLOR="white" SUMMARY="This table contains links to the different forecast models, divided by time of creation, model, and image size" id="table2"> <caption><font style="font-size:18px" face="Arial"><a name="South_America"><b> South America </b></a></font></caption> <TR BGCOLOR="#0a2390"> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" width="16%"> </TD> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">00 UTC</FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">06 UTC</FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">12 UTC</FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">18 UTC</FONT></TH> </TR> <!------------ GFS Official Runs -----------------------------> <TR> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#0a2390"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">GFS</FONT></TH> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" width="21%"> <font face="Arial"><b> <a href="sa_gfs00.shtml">00 GFS</a></b><br> November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" width="21%"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" width="21%"> <font face="Arial"><b> <a href="sa_gfs12.shtml">12 GFS</a><br></b>November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> </TR> <!------------ GFS Ensemble Means -----------------------------> <TR> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#0a2390" rowspan="4"><font color="#FFFF00" face="Arial" size="3"> <b>GFS</b> <font size="1"><br> Ensembles</font></font></TH> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"><b> <a href="sa_ensmeans00.shtml">00 Ensemble Means</a> </b><br>November 30 </font><br></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"><b> <a href="sa_ensmeans12.shtml">12 Ensemble Means</a> </b><br>November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> </TR> <tr> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" rowspan="2" colspan="2"><font face="Arial"> <b>Probability of <br>Precipitation</b></font> </td> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" colspan="2"><font face="Arial"> <b><a href="ens_sam_pqpf/sam_pqpf00.shtml">00Z PQPF</a></b><br>November 30 </font> </TD> </tr> <tr> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#DDDDDD" colspan="2"><font face="Arial"> <b><a href="ens_sam_pqpf/sam_pqpf12.shtml">12Z PQPF</a></b><br>November 30 </font> </TD> </tr> <TR> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99" colspan="4"> <font face="Arial"> <b><a href="/mike/ens_sam_pcpn/ens_sam_pcpn.php">24-Hour QPF</a></b></font></TD> </TR> <!------------ CMC Ensembles -----------------------------> <tr> <th align="center" bgcolor="#0a2390"><font color="#FFFF00" face="Arial" size="3"><b>CMC</b> <font size="1"> <div style="line-height : 100%">Ensembles</div></font></font> </th> <td align="center" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"><b> <a href="sa_cmc_ensmeans00.shtml">00 Ensemble Means</a> </b><br>November 30 </font> </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font> </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#DDDDDD"> <font face="Arial"><b> <a href="sa_cmc_ensmeans12.shtml">12 Ensemble Means</a> </b><br>November 30 </font> </td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#DDDDDD""> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font> </td> </tr> <TR> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99" colspan="5"> <font face="arial" size="2"><br> <b> <a href="/mike/pcpn/sa_24hrpcpn.gif"> GTS Observed 24-hr Precipitation (color)</a><br> <a href="/mike/pcpn/sa_24hrpcpn_bw.gif"> GTS Observed 24-hr Precipitation (b/w)</a><br> <br></b></font></TH> </tr> </TABLE> <p> </p> <!========================================================================> <! SOUTH AMERICA END > <!========================================================================> <!========================================================================> <! ATLANTIC BEGIN > <!========================================================================> <TABLE BORDER="2" CELLPADDING="2" CELLSPACING="1" BGCOLOR="white" SUMMARY="This table contains links to the different forecast models, divided by time of creation, model, and image size" id="table3"> <caption><font style="font-size:18px" face="Arial"><a name="Atlantic"><b> Atlantic </b></a></font></caption> <TR BGCOLOR="#0a2390"> <TD ALIGN="CENTER"> </TD> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 00 UTC </FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 06 UTC </FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 12 UTC </FONT></TH> <TH ALIGN="CENTER"><FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial"> 18 UTC </FONT></TH> </TR> <TR> <TH ALIGN="CENTER" BGCOLOR="#0a2390" width="48"> <FONT COLOR="yellow" FACE="Arial">GFS</FONT></TH> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"><b> <a href="atl_gfs00.shtml">00 GFS</a><br></b> November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b> <a href="atl_gfs12.shtml">12 GFS</a></b><br>November 30 </font></TD> <TD ALIGN="CENTER" bgcolor="#99FF99"> <font face="Arial"> <b>--</b></font></TD> </TR> </TABLE> <p> </p> <!========================================================================> <! 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