A Ukraine Loss Under Trump Would Seriously Damage U.S. Power

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https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Ones-and-Tooze-podcast-foreign-policy-logo-3000x3000-1.jpg?resize=1000,1000&quality=90 1000w, https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Ones-and-Tooze-podcast-foreign-policy-logo-3000x3000-1.jpg?resize=325,325&quality=90 325w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" loading="lazy" > </span> <figcaption style="height:0;opacity:0;">Illustration with Adam Tooze headshot on a green background with the text Ones & Tooze</figcaption> </figure> <h3 class="hed"> Ones and Tooze </h3> </a> </div> </div> </li> <li class="nav-full-menu__column__list-item">  <div class="excerpt-content"> <div class="nav-menu-podcasts-item-desc"> <a class="nav-menu-podcasts-item-desc hed-heading" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ispy/"> <figure class="figure-image -nocaption"> <span style="padding-bottom:100%; " class="image-attachment -ratioscale"> <img width="150" height="150" alt="Illustration with a male spy headshot and the text I Spy" 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Foreign Policy, 655 15th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20005. </p>  <div class="powered-by-wpcom--wrap opacity-80"> <div class="powered-by-wpcom--parent"> <span>Powered by <a href="https://wpvip.com/?utm_source=vip_powered_wpcom&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=VIP%20Footer%20Credit&utm_term=foreignpolicy.com" rel="generator nofollow" class="powered-by-wpcom">WordPress VIP</a></span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div></div> </nav> </div> <section id="subscribe-takeover" role="dialog" tabindex="0" aria-label="Foreign Policy Magazine subscription options modal"> <svg class="subscribe-takeover-close" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 10 10" width="10" height="10" overflow="visible" stroke="white" stroke-width="1" stroke-linecap="round" aria-label="Close Foreign Policy Magazine subscription options modal" role="button" tabindex="0"> <line x1="0" y1="0" x2="10" y2="10" /> <line x1="10" y1="0" x2="0" y2="10" /> </svg> <iframe id="subscribe-takeover-iframe" src="data:text/html;charset=utf-8," data-src="/?subscribe-offer&tpcc=navbar" style="width:100%;height:100%" title="Foreign Policy Magazine subscription options dialog"></iframe> </section> </header>  <main data-inert-when-modal="true"> <div id="article_d_1" class="home-ad-region-1"></div> <div id="main" data-context="article" class="default default_text_style text_above_photo "> <div class="post-content grid--flow" data-post-id="1163240" data-premium="no" data-premium-trigger="yes" data-whitelist=""> <article class="article" data-post-id="1163240" data-post-url="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/06/trump-election-victory-ukraine-war-russia-security-nato/"> <div class="department-meta"> <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/category/analysis/argument/" class="department-name department"> Argument </a> <div class="department-description"> An expert's point of view on a current event. </div> </div><span class="hed-heading" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/06/trump-election-victory-ukraine-war-russia-security-nato/"> <h1 class="hed">Even Trump Can’t Afford to Lose the Ukraine War</h1> </span> <h2 class="dek-heading">Victory for Putin would be a grave blow to U.S. power.</h2> <div class="author-bio"> <div class="author-bio-text"> By <a rel="author" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/author/luke-mcgee/"><strong>Luke McGee</strong></a>, an Emmy Award-winning journalist covering European diplomacy. </div> </div> <figure class="figure-image "> <span style="padding-bottom:66.666666666667%; " class="image-attachment -ratioscale horizontal-orientation"> <img width="800" height="533" alt="People walk on a bridge past an American flag and above an art installation by French street artist James Colomina called the "Swing" which depicts a little girl wearing an oversized military helmet as sits on a playground swing hanging from the bridge." style="width:auto;" class="image -fit horizontal-orientation" src="https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?w=800?quality=90" srcset="https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?quality=90 1500w, https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?resize=150,100&quality=90 150w, https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?resize=550,367&quality=90 550w, https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?resize=768,512&quality=90 768w, https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?resize=400,267&quality=90 400w, https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?resize=1000,667&quality=90 1000w, https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/TRUMP-UKRAINE-WAR-RUSSIA-GettyImages-2182554421.png?resize=325,217&quality=90 325w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" loading="eager" fetchpriority="high" > </span> <figcaption style="height:0;opacity:0;">People walk on a bridge past an American flag and above an art installation by French street artist James Colomina called the "Swing" which depicts a little girl wearing an oversized military helmet as sits on a playground swing hanging from the bridge.</figcaption> <div class="caption"> An American flag hangs above an art installation by French street artist James Colomina depicting a little girl wearing an oversized military helmet as she swings above the Alley of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred at Independence Square in Kyiv on Nov. 5. <span class="attribution">Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images</span> </div> </figure> <div class="post-content-main shares-position">  <div class="myfp-article loading js-myfp-container myfp-article--center"> <p class="myfp-article__message js-myfp-message"></p> <ul class="myfp-article__list js-myfp-content"> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="topic_alerts" data-myfp-id="10772"> <label> <span>Geopolitics</span> </label> </span> </li> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="topic_alerts" data-myfp-id="801"> <label> <span>Security</span> </label> </span> </li> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="regional_alerts" data-myfp-id="10759"> <label> <span>Russia</span> </label> </span> </li> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="regional_alerts" data-myfp-id="22735"> <label> <span>Ukraine</span> </label> </span> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="meta-data"> <time datetime="2024-11-06" class="date-time"> November 6, 2024, 2:37 PM </time> <span class="comment-count hide-ip-access content-gated"> <svg role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="13.115" height="13.115" viewBox="0 0 13.115 13.115" class="hide-sr-only" aria-hidden="true"> <title>Comment icon</title> <g id="Group_1806" data-name="Group 1806" transform="translate(-4668.249 -330.356)"> <path id="Path_198" data-name="Path 198" d="M35.014,25.331V15.4H22.6v9.932h9.932" transform="translate(4646 315.306)" fill="none" stroke="#000" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="0.7"></path> <path id="Path_199" data-name="Path 199" d="M53.881,44.2v2.483L51.4,44.2" transform="translate(4627.133 296.439)" fill="none" stroke="#000" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="0.7"></path> </g> </svg> <a href="#comments-container" class="link-to-comments">View Comments <span class="comment-count-wrapper">(<span class="coral-count" data-coral-notext="true"></span>)</span></a> </span> </div> <div class="content-ungated"> <p>Someone in Donald Trump’s inner circle needs to take him to one side and tell him this home truth: as president-elect, he must immediately explain his plan to end the war in Ukraine. </p> <p>Trump, still celebrating his historic victory, will naturally be thinking about his domestic agenda. But he should understand that the longer that he dithers, the more strategic advantages he hands to Russia—which is now a firm<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/05/election-bomb-threat-russia-fbi/"> U.S. adversary</a>. </p> </div> <div class="content-gated content-gated--main-article"> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Someone in Donald Trump’s inner circle needs to take him to one side and tell him this home truth: as president-elect, he must immediately explain his plan to end the war in Ukraine. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Trump, still celebrating his historic victory, will naturally be thinking about his domestic agenda. But he should understand that the longer that he dithers, the more strategic advantages he hands to Russia—which is now a firm</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/05/election-bomb-threat-russia-fbi/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. adversary</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ideally, his plan should not involve Ukraine giving up territory that has been captured by Russia over the course of the war. Nor should it be based on empty promises</span> <span style="font-weight: 400;">from Russian President Vladimir Putin, which he has a</span><a href="https://cepa.org/article/theres-no-point-talking-about-peace-with-putin/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">history</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> of making.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The need for clarity on the ground in Ukraine is obvious. NATO sources and Western security officials almost universally agree that Ukraine is slowly losing the war and that this winter will be critical. Trump’s victory in the United States has only heightened these concerns, not least because he has a history of making</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/31/us-election-2024-ukraine-zelensky-trump-harris-aid-russia-war/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">tepid statements</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> about Ukraine and the war.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Trump has previously said that Ukraine should have ceded territory to Russia ahead of the invasion, claiming that even “the worst deal would’ve been better than what we have now.” He also</span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-ukraine-putin-zelenskyy-0f4d539aa73a943474d779716e5fe42a"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">accused</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, of making “little nasty aspersions toward your favorite president, me.”</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The situation in much of Ukraine is</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/conscription-ukraine-military-men-russia-war/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">already grave</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Russia destroyed a large part of the country’s energy system, so millions of Ukrainians may find themselves in their homes without heating, electricity, and water during the winter,” said Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian lawyer and Nobel Peace Prize</span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/10/europe/russian-nobel-peace-laureate-slams-putin-war-intl/index.html"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">laureate</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. “Getting the appropriate number of systems and missiles is critical to close the sky and protect peaceful cities and civilians from this critical scenario.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The destruction of infrastructure is seen by Ukrainians as a</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/11/russia-attacks-ukraine-energy-infrastructure-power-plants-electricity/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">Russian strategy to make this winter as insufferable as possible</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, particularly in the east. In the south, sources on the ground say that </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4d1xrep1ko"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Russian attacks</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> on ports are also part of an effort to prevent supplies from reaching Ukrainian citizens. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“The Russian strategy in the east seems to be to freeze people out and heavily bomb their cities and towns; the strategy in the south seems to be to manipulate a key international artery for food,” said Michael Bociurkiw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, who spoke with </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Foreign Policy</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> from Ukraine.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bociurkiw believes that Russia has been taking advantage of the vacuum created by the U.S. election and uncertainty about whether Washington’s support will survive a change of administration.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“It’s been really disheartening to see the lack of spine in Washington and elsewhere,” he said. “Autocrats take advantage of blurred lines. Putin is prodding and testing for soft tissue. The inaction of the West, withholding permission for Ukraine to strike inside Russia at launch pads, has handed a major advantage to Russia.”</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Many Western allies, including the United States, have set implicit or explicit</span><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-miss-3-billion-mark-ukraine-aid-pledge-sebastien-lecornu-security-deal/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">limits</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> on how much they’re willing to give to Ukraine—and</span><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/austria-hungary-agree-on-not-sending-weapons-to-ukraine/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">what kind</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> of weapons that includes. Theories as to why range from fatigue to a belief that the conflict will not spill outside Ukrainian and Russian borders. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But there are widespread fears among experts that the prospect of victory will only embolden Putin. Russian territorial gains will bring the Kremlin ever closer to NATO borders—and potentially supply resources for more conflict. Many believe that this logic still applies in the event of a peace deal that allows Russia to retain the territory that it has invaded. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“If there’s a cease-fire that effectively allows Russia to hold that territory, it will allow Russia to consolidate its position, reinforcing its military presence,” said Ruth Deyermond, a professor with the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. “With no war to fight, it would also be able to develop its military presence in Belarus, threatening</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/27/nato-arctic-circle-nordic-countries-map-alliance-integration/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">NATO members in the Baltic region</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. And an emboldened Russia would be likely to escalate its attacks on European critical infrastructure and increase its interference in many NATO states, including the U.S.,” she added.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Peter Dickinson</span><a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-history-lecture-reveals-his-dreams-of-a-new-russian-empire/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">wrote</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> for the Atlantic Council earlier this year that “it should be painfully apparent that anywhere Putin regards as ‘historical Russia’ is potentially at risk … This would create an array of possible targets for Russian aggression including Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Alaska, and the whole of Central Asia.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Why a full or partial Russian victory is such a concern for Europe is easy to understand. It must now be explained to Trump why it is also critical to the United States. An ocean and a continent might separate Washington, D.C., and Moscow, but borders are not barriers to modern warfare. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While Zelensky continues to ask, reasonably, for more support in defeating Russia, it is also true that Washington has already spent a lot of political capital and money on this war. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The first obvious loss to the United States would be in face, Deyermond said. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Ukraine losing would look to the rest of the world as if the U.S. was losing to Russia—or to a coalition of Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Any scaling back of U.S. support would also look as if the U.S. had been forced to retreat by Russia,” she said. “That would obviously be very damaging to U.S. credibility. For years, Putin has been talking about the weakness of the West, by which he mostly means the U.S.”</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That might seem opaque to people sitting on the other side of the Atlantic, but it could have very real consequences for the United States and its global interests. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“First, it sends a clear message to other adversaries that you can mess around with America and get away with it,” said Bociurkiw, the Atlantic Council fellow. “Second, wars are becoming so much more about technology and lone actors that don’t respect borders. Fake news dropped by Russia in America can lead to violence like in Charlottesville. Russia is upping its biohazard capability, which is easily exportable.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">No one knows whether Trump has actually paid any attention to what is happening in Ukraine or</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/30/enduring-mystery-trump-relationship-russia/"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">what he thinks about Putin in 2024</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. He has repeatedly called Putin a “</span><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923"><span style="font-weight: 400;">genius</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">” during the conflict. Recently, while standing next to Zelensky, he</span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/trump-election-ukraine-war-russia-intl/index.html"> <span style="font-weight: 400;">said</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> that “we have a very good relationship, and I also have a very good relationship … with President Putin,” before adding, “I think if we win [the election], we’re going to get it [the war] resolved very quickly.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It’s not clear that Trump fully comprehends how grave the situation is in Ukraine, nor how serious the consequences would be for Washington and its allies. It’s not even clear that he particularly cares or believes that hose consequences really exist. And many of his far-right allies see Putin and his allies, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, as a role model for the kind of patriarchal nationalist state they want.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Trump’s positions can also be shifting and uncertain. Perhaps he has access to some inner information that the rest of us lack. But on the likelihood that Trump is merely spitballing, someone in his inner circle needs to grab him right now and hammer home the message: The United States needs Ukraine to win. </span></p> <div data-fp-lazy-load-image></div> </div> <div class="article-end content-gated"> <div class="article-end__tag-content"> <p><em><i data-stringify-type="italic">This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage of the Trump transition</i><i data-stringify-type="italic">. </i>Follow along <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/projects/trump-presidential-transition-personnel-cabinet-policy-issues/">here</a>.</em></p> </div> </div> <div class="in-article-piano-gating-container"></div> </div> <div class="myfp-article loading js-myfp-container "> <p class="myfp-article__message js-myfp-message"></p> <ul class="myfp-article__list js-myfp-content"> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="topic_alerts" data-myfp-id="10772"> <label> <span>Geopolitics</span> </label> </span> </li> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="topic_alerts" data-myfp-id="801"> <label> <span>Security</span> </label> </span> </li> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="regional_alerts" data-myfp-id="10759"> <label> <span>Russia</span> </label> </span> </li> <li> <span class="myfp-toggle myfp-toggle--small myfp-toggle--red"> <input type="checkbox" data-myfp-type="regional_alerts" data-myfp-id="22735"> <label> <span>Ukraine</span> </label> </span> </li> </ul> </div> <section class="bio-no-photo"> <div> <p><strong>Luke McGee</strong> is an Emmy Award-winning journalist covering European diplomacy. He was previously CNN’s European policy editor.</p> </div> </section> <div class="the-tags no-top-border"> <span class="title">Read More On</span> <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/donald-trump/" class="tag"> Donald Trump</a><span class="separator"> |</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/geopolitics/" class="tag"> Geopolitics</a><span class="separator"> |</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/russia/" class="tag"> Russia</a><span class="separator"> |</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/security/" class="tag"> Security</a><span class="separator"> |</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/ukraine/" class="tag"> Ukraine</a><span class="separator"> |</span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/war/" class="tag"> War</a></div> <div id="comments-container" class="comments-container hide-ip-access content-gated"> <div class="anon-content"> <div class="header bg-gray text-center"> <h2>Join the Conversation</h2> <p>Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a <strong><em>Foreign Policy</em></strong> subscription.</p> <p> Already a subscriber? <strong><a href="javascript:void(0);" class="navlink -user -signin FP-paywall--login">Log In</a></strong>. </p> <p> <a href="/subscribe" class="navlink -user -emph subscribe-prompt button-red"> <span class="subscribe--long">Subscribe</span> <span class="subscribe--short">Subscribe</span> </a> </p> </div> <div class="open-comments"> <p><a href="javascript:void(0);">View <span class="coral-count" data-coral-notext="true"></span> Comments <span class="icon"></span></a></p> </div> </div> <div class="reg-content"> <div class="header bg-gray text-center"> <h2>Join the Conversation</h2> <p>Join the conversation on this and other recent <em>Foreign Policy</em> articles when you subscribe now.</p> <p> <a href="/subscribe" class="navlink -user -emph subscribe-prompt button-red"> <span class="subscribe--long">Subscribe</span> <span class="subscribe--short">Subscribe</span> </a> </p> <p> Not your account? <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="navlink -user -signin FP-paywall--logout">Log out</a> </p> </div> <div class="open-comments"> <p><a href="javascript:void(0);">View <span class="coral-count" data-coral-notext="true"></span> Comments <span class="icon"></span></a></p> </div> </div> <div class="user-content"> <div class="header bg-gray"> <h2>Join the Conversation</h2> <p>Please follow our <strong><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/comment-guidelines" target="_blank">comment guidelines</a></strong>, stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others’ beliefs.</p> </div> </div> <div class="user-content"> <div class="comment-username-text inset bg-gray"> <strong>You are commenting as <span class="username-placeholder"></span>.</strong> <span class="account-links"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="username-change-trigger-on">Change your username</a> <span class="separator" aria-hidden="true">|</span> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="FP-paywall--logout">Log out</a> </span> </div> <div class="comment-change-username-form user-content inset bg-gray" style="display: none;"> <form class="username-form-top"> <div class="comment-username-fields"> <div class="row-1"> <div class="col-1"> <h3>Change your username:</h3> </div> <div class="col-2"> <label class="hide" for="comments-username-change">Username</label> <input type="text" id="comments-username-change" name="username" class="username-input" value="" autocomplete="username" /> <p class="comments-username-message"></p> </div> </div> <div class="row-2"> <div class="col-1"> <p> <input required type="checkbox" id="commenting-guidelines-consent-top" name="commenting-guidelines-consent" value="1" /> <label for="commenting-guidelines-consent-top"> I agree to abide by FP’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/comment-guidelines" target="_blank">comment guidelines</a>. 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A Ukraine Loss Under Trump Would Seriously Damage U.S. Power