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'An expensive option' | DNV cuts long-term hydrogen forecasts by 21% due to 'spiralling costs' and inadequate subsidies | Hydrogen Insight
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href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="Policy" class="dn-link pill tag" data-v-8c016434><!--[--><!----><span class="text" data-v-8c016434>Policy</span><!--]--></a></div><!--[--><h1 class="dn-headline title" data-v-7383efc4><!--[-->'An expensive option' | DNV cuts long-term hydrogen forecasts by 21% due to 'spiralling costs' and inadequate subsidies<!--]--></h1><!--]--><p class="lead">Energy adviser now says H2 will only account for 3.9% of the global energy mix by 2050, despite at least 15% being needed to meet Paris Agreement goals</p><figure class="dn-image default article-top-image" data-load="eager"><picture class="ratio-3x2"><!--[--><!--[--><!--[--><source type="webp" srcset="https://images.dngroup.com/image/eyJ3Ijo5ODAsImsiOiJhZTYzMTA3MjI1OGNiYThhMGVjZDViOWM0MTM5ZTJiZiIsImYiOiJ3ZWJwIiwiY3JvcCI6WzEwNSwwLDEzOTIsOTI4XSwiciI6MS41LCJvIjoiZ2xvYmFsIn0="><!--]--><!--[--><source type="jpeg" srcset="https://images.dngroup.com/image/eyJ3Ijo5ODAsImsiOiJhZTYzMTA3MjI1OGNiYThhMGVjZDViOWM0MTM5ZTJiZiIsImYiOiJqcGVnIiwiY3JvcCI6WzEwNSwwLDEzOTIsOTI4XSwiciI6MS41LCJvIjoiZ2xvYmFsIn0="><!--]--><!--]--><img alt="DNV CEO Remi Eriksen." loading="eager" src="https://images.dngroup.com/image/eyJ3Ijo5ODAsImsiOiJhZTYzMTA3MjI1OGNiYThhMGVjZDViOWM0MTM5ZTJiZiIsImYiOiJ3ZWJwIiwiY3JvcCI6WzEwNSwwLDEzOTIsOTI4XSwiciI6MS41LCJvIjoiZ2xvYmFsIn0=" fetchpriority="high"><!--]--></picture><figcaption><span class="caption-below-image">DNV CEO Remi Eriksen.</span><span class="credit">Photo: DNV</span></figcaption></figure><div class="dn-meta-data"><!--[--><!--[--><div class="dn-bylines-column" data-list><div class="dn-byline"><!--[--><!--]--><div class="author-content"><div class="author"><ul class="author-list"><!--[--><li data-info-comma="," data-info-and="and"><!--[--><a href="mailto:leigh.collins@hydrogeninsight.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="Leigh Collins" class="dn-link" data-v-8c016434><!--[--><!----><span class="text" data-v-8c016434>Leigh Collins</span><!--]--></a><!--]--><!----></li><!--]--></ul><!--[--><div class="author-subtle"><span>Editor, Hydrogen Insight</span><!----></div><!--]--></div><!--[--><!--]--></div></div><span></span></div><!--]--><div class="dn-published-and-buttons" data-list="reverse"></div><div class="dn-published-and-buttons" data-list="reverse"></div><span></span><!--]--></div><!--]--></div><div class="dn-content" data-zone="article-body"><!----><!--[--><script type="text/javascript"> if (!window.Zephr) window.Zephr = {}; if (!window.Zephr.outcomes) window.Zephr.outcomes = {}; window.Zephr.outcomes['hide-seo'] = { featureLabel: 'Hide SEO', outcomeId: 'transformation/1#1', outcomeLabel: 'Remove' }; </script> <span></span><!--]--></div></article><div style="" class="dn-below-article-interaction" data-zone="article-bottom"><div class="action" data-list><div class="meta-info"><span class="dn-date-time published" data-datetime="2024-10-15T14:32:22+00:00" data-v-ea974056>Published 15 October 2024, 14:32</span><span class="dn-date-time updated" data-datetime="2024-10-15T14:35:56+00:00" data-v-ea974056>Updated 15 October 2024, 14:35</span></div><!--[--><a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/tag/DNV" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="DNV" class="dn-link pill tag" data-v-8c016434><!--[--><!----><span class="text" data-v-8c016434>DNV</span><!--]--></a><a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/tag/Green_H2" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="Green H2" class="dn-link pill tag" data-v-8c016434><!--[--><!----><span class="text" data-v-8c016434>Green H2</span><!--]--></a><a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/tag/Blue_H2" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="Blue H2" class="dn-link pill tag" data-v-8c016434><!--[--><!----><span class="text" data-v-8c016434>Blue H2</span><!--]--></a><a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/tag/Shipping" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="Shipping" class="dn-link pill tag" 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To read more about DN Media Group, <a href="https://www.dngroup.com/"> click here</a>. </p><!--]--></div></footer></footer><!--]--><!--]--></div><script type="text/javascript"> if (!window.Zephr) window.Zephr = {}; if (!window.Zephr.outcomes) window.Zephr.outcomes = {}; window.Zephr.outcomes['dn-internal-users'] = { featureLabel: 'DN Internal Users', outcomeId: 'transformation/2', outcomeLabel: 'DN Non Internal Users' }; </script> <div id="teleports"></div><script type="application/json" data-nuxt-data="nuxt-app" data-ssr="true" id="__NUXT_DATA__">[["ShallowReactive",1],{"data":2,"state":4,"once":14,"_errors":15,"serverRendered":8,"path":17,"pinia":18},["ShallowReactive",3],{},["Reactive",5],{"$scolor-mode":6,"$snuxt-i18n-meta":10,"$svue-query":11},{"preference":7,"value":7,"unknown":8,"forced":9},"dark",true,false,{},{"mutations":12,"queries":13},[],[],["Set"],["ShallowReactive",16],{},"/policy/an-expensive-option-dnv-cuts-long-term-hydrogen-forecasts-by-21-due-to-spiralling-costs-and-inadequate-subsidies/2-1-1724442",["Reactive",19],{"commonStore":20,"articlesStore":25,"profileLoginStore":231},{"isAppView":21,"previousRouteName":23},["EmptyRef",22],"false",["EmptyRef",24],"\"\"",{"currentArticle":26,"loading":227,"articleBodyWithoutInjectElements":228},["Ref",27],["Reactive",28],{"api":29,"id":30,"title":31,"originalTitle":32,"dataLayout":33,"type":34,"subType":34,"state":35,"excludeFromNews":9,"intro":36,"canonicalSlug":17,"publishedAt":37,"firstPublishedAt":38,"updatedAt":37,"leadAsset":39,"body":60,"bodyLength":169,"byline":170,"metadata":183,"tags":188,"categories":209,"relatedCompanies":221,"publication":222,"imagePosition":226,"accessLevel":76,"mobileImagePosition":226},"global-article","2-1-1724442","'An expensive option' | DNV cuts long-term hydrogen forecasts by 21% due to 'spiralling costs' and inadequate subsidies","‘An expensive option’ | DNV cuts long-term hydrogen forecasts by 20% due to 'spiralling costs' and inadequate subsidies","text-first","news","published","Energy adviser now says H2 will only account for 3.9% of the global energy mix by 2050, despite at least 15% being needed to meet Paris Agreement goals","2024-10-15T14:35:56Z","2024-10-15T14:32:22Z",{"type":40,"src":41,"caption":42,"credit":43,"imageCrops":44,"pointOfInterest":55},"picture","https://images-global.nhst.tech/image/REs1N2hhamJHeGpyQnZubW1Wem1aTmE5cTRtemFrUWFBSVNINUMvZ20xZz0=/nhst/binary/ae631072258cba8a0ecd5b9c4139e2bf","DNV CEO Remi Eriksen.","Photo: DNV",{"2x1":45,"free":50,"3x2":52},[46,47,48,49],0,63,1600,799,[46,46,48,51],928,[53,46,54,51],105,1392,{"originalWidth":48,"originalHeight":51,"x":56,"y":46,"width":57,"height":58,"centerX":59,"centerY":59},0.21,0.58,1,0.5,[61,64,66,68,87,89,91,93,103,105,109,111,113,135,137,139,159,161,163,165,167],{"type":62,"html":63},"text","Energy adviser DNV has reduced its forecast for hydrogen usage in 2050 by 21% in the 2024 edition of its annual Energy Transition Outlook, saying it now expects H\u003Csub>2\u003C/sub> (and its derivatives) to account for 3.9% of the global energy mix in 2050, down from 5% in last year’s report.",{"type":62,"html":65},"“Spiralling costs across many of the first hydrogen-for-energy projects, and an absence of policies that subsidize hydrogen at the hefty level required for a fast ramp-up have led us to revise down our forecast uptake of hydrogen by 2050,” the company explains in the 261-page study.",{"type":62,"html":67},"DNV now forecasts that 188 million tonnes of hydrogen will be used for energy purposes by mid-century, down from 238 million tonnes in its 2023 outlook.",{"type":69,"header":70,"items":71},"related","",[72],{"type":34,"id":73,"title":74,"url":75,"accessLevel":76,"picture":77},"2-1-1533957","‘Green hydrogen will cost $2/kg by 2030 — but only from producers with dedicated renewables supply’: DNV","https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/-green-hydrogen-will-cost-2-kg-by-2030-but-only-from-producers-with-dedicated-renewables-supply-dnv/2-1-1533957","open",{"type":40,"src":78,"caption":79,"credit":80,"imageCrops":81},"https://images-global.nhst.tech/image/a1JKVXFYQW9USGcwQXZVOEJ2L2ljUkZqenpZalNOdnY0U2VKL0RFamdIbz0=/nhst/binary/307dbfd86cc1d783d30324fe542a5f45","Sealhyfe offshore hydrogen production pilot with floating wind turbine.","Photo: Lhyfe",{"2x1":82,"3x2":85},[46,83,48,84],136,797,[46,46,48,86],1066,{"type":62,"html":88},"“Despite the national strategies and policies aimed at supporting hydrogen uptake, implementation delays and insufficient demand-creation policies are hindering progress,” the new report explains.",{"type":62,"html":90},"“Hydrogen remains an expensive option: even when the technology is ready for use, potential buyers are understandably hesitant to pay the higher costs associated with hydrogen as a fuel.",{"type":62,"html":92},"“At current costs that often exceed $5/kgH\u003Csub>2\u003C/sub>, hydrogen is up to 5 times more expensive per megawatt than natural gas in Europe. Although we expect costs to fall substantially in the next five years to $3/kgH\u003Csub>2\u003C/sub>, hydrogen uptake will be muted in the absence of higher carbon prices and/or subsidies.”",{"type":94,"promoboxType":95,"template":96,"view":70,"design":97,"title":98,"selectedImage":99,"hideImage":9,"text":100,"buttonLabel":101,"url":102},"promobox","feature,news","Accelerate Hydrogen - Hydrogen Insight","green","Stay ahead on hydrogen with our free newsletter","https://static1.dn.no/promobox/2023/06/30/01/54/01/a394ba3c-fddb-9ce9-401f-927ab32716be.jpg","Keep up with the latest developments in the international hydrogen industry with the free Accelerate Hydrogen newsletter.\n\nSign up now for an unbiased, clear-sighted view of the fast-growing hydrogen sector.","Sign up now","https://rechargenews.us1.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=9ce2040dca4d38f9282025975&id=1c1e9d119f",{"type":62,"html":104},"The report goes on to say that while it expects hydrogen costs to fall to $2/kg by 2050 (and even $1/kg at some projects), such figures can only be reached through the kind of mass installation that will require government intervention.",{"type":106,"injected":8,"id":107,"label":108,"minHeight":-1,"class":-1},"ad","hydrogen_netboard-article-1","Article continues below the advert",{"type":62,"html":110},"“While we do see substantial buildout of both blue and green hydrogen production in the 2030s, the risk for hydrogen is that policy uncertainty will drive the market to explore other opportunities to tackle hard-to-electrify sectors,” it explains, giving examples of biofuels and battery-electric trucks.",{"type":62,"html":112},"As DNV CEO Remi Eriksen notes in the foreword: “Without a meaningful carbon price and/or direct market-stimulating support, hydrogen will struggle to scale and move down a cost-learning curve.”",{"type":69,"header":70,"items":114},[115],{"type":34,"id":116,"title":117,"url":118,"accessLevel":76,"picture":119},"2-1-1394924","Global hydrogen demand to more than triple by 2050, driven by power generation, aviation and industry: analyst","https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/global-hydrogen-demand-to-more-than-triple-by-2050-driven-by-power-generation-aviation-and-industry-analyst/2-1-1394924",{"type":40,"src":120,"caption":121,"credit":122,"imageCrops":123},"https://images-global.nhst.tech/image/NkNtQi9HS0kzNUZIc3BkZlgrM0N1ZGE5cTRtemFrUWFBSVNINUMvZ20xZz0=/nhst/binary/298f676a8bcedca80707733c2b43ec5b","Graphic showing a hydrogen energy storage system powered by wind and solar power.","Photo: 123rf.com",{"5x7":124,"2x1":128,"free":131,"3x2":132},[125,46,126,127],560,474,670,[129,46,130,127],114,1341,[46,46,48,127],[133,46,134,127],177,1005,{"type":62,"html":136},"Nevertheless, the report explains that the “advancements in hydrogen technology and infrastructure over the next decade will be substantial”, estimating that global expenditure on hydrogen production for energy purposes from now until 2050 will reach $6.8trn, with an extra $180bn to be spent on hydrogen pipelines and $530bn on ammonia import and export terminals.",{"type":62,"html":138},"The use of hydrogen and its derivatives for energy use includes maritime, aviation and road-transport fuels, as a replacement for fossil fuels in industrial high-temperature heat, the heating of buildings and their use in power and seasonal storage. Hydrogen’s use as a chemical feedstock is not included in these figures.",{"type":69,"header":70,"items":140},[141],{"type":34,"id":142,"title":143,"url":144,"accessLevel":76,"picture":145},"2-1-1364025","Saving the planet | Reaching net zero by 2050 will require 500 million tonnes of 'emissions-free' hydrogen: BNEF","https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/saving-the-planet-reaching-net-zero-by-2050-will-require-500-million-tonnes-of-emissions-free-hydrogen-bnef/2-1-1364025",{"type":40,"src":146,"caption":147,"credit":148,"imageCrops":149},"https://images-global.nhst.tech/image/MldQWDFFOUpOYWNjaExDc0Uzd2FLQkZqenpZalNOdnY0U2VKL0RFamdIbz0=/nhst/binary/a2a69c563144a164dc537df473d7a1bb","A hurricane-filled picture of Earth taken on 4 September 2019.","Photo: Nasa",{"5x7":150,"2x1":153,"free":156,"3x2":157},[151,46,152,48],234,1135,[46,154,48,155],43,800,[46,46,48,48],[46,46,48,158],1063,{"type":62,"html":160},"DNV foresees 73% of the 188 million tonnes of hydrogen being used for energy purposes in 2050 to be utilised in the manufacturing industry, with the iron and steel sector accounting for just under half of this, followed by transport (14%), buildings (7%) and the remaining 6% split between electricity generation and “various other purposes”.",{"type":106,"injected":8,"id":162,"label":108,"minHeight":-1,"class":-1},"hydrogen_netboard-article-2",{"type":62,"html":164},"However, the report warns: “Renewable and low-carbon hydrogen are essential for lowering emissions in energy-intensive sectors that are difficult to electrify. To align with the goals set by the \u003Ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement\" target=\"_blank\">Paris Agreement\u003C/a> [to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels], hydrogen and its derivatives — ammonia, e-methanol, and other e-fuels — need to account for about 15% of the world's energy demand by 2050. ",{"type":62,"html":166},"“However, our projections show that the forecast global uptake of hydrogen falls very short of these goals; we expect hydrogen and its derivatives to comprise only 0.25% of the global final energy mix by 2030 and 4% by 2050.",{"type":62,"html":168},"“Since hydrogen’s key application is in hard-to-electrify sectors, the slow-down in uptake is worrying from the perspective of Paris Agreement ambitions.”",19,{"authors":171,"options":182},[172],{"type":173,"name":174,"source":175,"sourceId":176,"email":177,"userName":178,"hasAuthorPage":9,"options":179},"author","Leigh Collins","drpublish","1053","leigh.collins@hydrogeninsight.com","l_collins",{"alternativeBylineProfileText":180,"profileTitle":181},"Leigh Collins is Recharge’s Managing Editor, leading its energy-transition coverage as well as editing its magazines, dailies and the weekly Accelerate newsletter. 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