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<!DOCTYPE html> <HTML lang="en"> <HEAD> <TITLE>Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?</TITLE> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://maxcdn.bootstrapcdn.com/bootstrap/4.0.0/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-Gn5384xqQ1aoWXA+058RXPxPg6fy4IWvTNh0E263XmFcJlSAwiGgFAW/dAiS6JXm" crossorigin="anonymous"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/css/font-awesome.min.css">   <link href="/css/normalnew.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link href="/css/pushy.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link rel="icon" type="image.jpg" href="/favicon.ico">  <script type='text/javascript'> var captchaContainer = null; var loadCaptcha = function() { captchaContainer = grecaptcha.render('captcha_container', { 'sitekey' : '6LdQebIaAAAAACSKxvbloyrkQ_q-MqhOAGgD5PQV', 'callback' : function(response) { console.log(response); } }); }; </script> <META NAME="handle" CONTENT="RePEc:igi:igierp:548"><META NAME="description" CONTENT="Downloadable! The hot hand fallacy refers to a belief in the atypical clustering of successes in sequential outcomes when there is none. It has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and Finance. The strongest evidence in support of the fallacy remains that from the canonical domain of basketball, where the widespread belief in the existence of hot hand shooting, among expert players and coaches, has been found to have no evidential basis (Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky 1985). A prominent exhibit of the fallacy is Koehler and Conley (2003)'s study of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1994-1997), a setting which is viewed as ideal for a test of the hot hand (Thaler and Sunstein 2008). In this setting, despite the well-known beliefs of players, coaches, and fans alike, Koehler and Conley and no evidence of hot hand shooting. In the present study, we collect 29 years of shooting data from television broadcasts of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1986-2015), and apply a statistical approach developed in Miller and Sanjurjo (2014), which is more powered, contains an improved set of statistical measures, and corrects for a substantial downward bias in previous estimates of the hot hand effect. In contrast with previous studies, but consistent with Miller and Sanjurjo (2014)'s recent Finding of substantial hot hand shooting in all previous controlled shooting studies (including that from the original study of Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky), we and substantial evidence of hot hand shooting in the NBA Three-Point Contest. This leaves little doubt that the hot hand not only exists, but actually occurs regularly. Thus, belief in the hot hand, in principle, is not a fallacy. JEL Classification Numbers: C12; C14; C91; C93; D03. Keywords: Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect."> <META NAME="keywords" CONTENT=" hot hand fallacy; hot hand effect."> <META NAME="jel_code" CONTENT="C12; ; C14; ; C91; ; C93; ; D03"> <META NAME="author" CONTENT="Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo"> <META NAME="author_shortid" CONTENT="pmi476"> <META NAME="title" CONTENT="Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?"> <META NAME="download" CONTENT="1"> <META NAME="freedownload" CONTENT="1"> <META NAME="date" CONTENT="2015-02-02"> <META NAME="citation_publication_date" CONTENT="2015"> <META NAME="citation_authors" content="Joshua B. Miller; Adam Sanjurjo"> <META NAME="citation_title" content="Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?"> <META NAME="citation_abstract" content="The hot hand fallacy refers to a belief in the atypical clustering of successes in sequential outcomes when there is none. It has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and Finance. The strongest evidence in support of the fallacy remains that from the canonical domain of basketball, where the widespread belief in the existence of hot hand shooting, among expert players and coaches, has been found to have no evidential basis (Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky 1985). A prominent exhibit of the fallacy is Koehler and Conley (2003)'s study of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1994-1997), a setting which is viewed as ideal for a test of the hot hand (Thaler and Sunstein 2008). In this setting, despite the well-known beliefs of players, coaches, and fans alike, Koehler and Conley and no evidence of hot hand shooting. In the present study, we collect 29 years of shooting data from television broadcasts of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1986-2015), and apply a statistical approach developed in Miller and Sanjurjo (2014), which is more powered, contains an improved set of statistical measures, and corrects for a substantial downward bias in previous estimates of the hot hand effect. In contrast with previous studies, but consistent with Miller and Sanjurjo (2014)'s recent Finding of substantial hot hand shooting in all previous controlled shooting studies (including that from the original study of Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky), we and substantial evidence of hot hand shooting in the NBA Three-Point Contest. This leaves little doubt that the hot hand not only exists, but actually occurs regularly. Thus, belief in the hot hand, in principle, is not a fallacy. JEL Classification Numbers: C12; C14; C91; C93; D03. Keywords: Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect."> <META NAME="citation_publisher" content="IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University"> <META NAME="citation_journal_title" content="Working Papers"> <META NAME="citation_keywords" content=" hot hand fallacy; hot hand effect."> <META NAME="citation_abstract_html_url" content="https://ideas.repec.org/p/igi/igierp/548.html"> <META NAME="citation_abstract_pdf_url" content="https://ideas.repec.org/p/igi/igierp/548.html"> <META NAME="redif-type" content="paper"> <META NAME="citation_type" content="redif-paper"> <META NAME="citation_technical_report_number" content="548"> <META NAME="citation_year" content="2015"> <META NAME="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <META NAME="twitter:site" content="@repec_org"> <META NAME="twitter:title" content="Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Cont"> <META NAME="twitter:description" content="The hot hand fallacy refers to a belief in the atypical clustering of successes in sequential outcomes when there is none. It has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with "> <META NAME="twitter:image" content="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/twimage.cgi?p&igi:igierp:548"> <META PROPERTY="og:type" content="article"> <META PROPERTY="og:title" content="Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-"> <META PROPERTY="og:description" content="The hot hand fallacy refers to a belief in the atypical clustering of successes in sequential outcomes when there is none. It has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with "> <META PROPERTY="og:url" content="https://ideas.repec.org//p/igi/igierp/548.html"> <META PROPERTY="og:image" content="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/twimage.cgi?p&igi:igierp:548"> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@id": "#periodical", "@type": "Periodical", "name": "Working Papers", "publisher": "IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/s/igi/igierp.html", "requiresSubscription": "false" }, { "@id": "#number", "@type": "PublicationIssue", "datePublished": "2015", "issueNumber": "548" }, { "@id": "#article", "@type": "ScholarlyArticle", "name": "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org//p/igi/igierp/548.html", "description": "The hot hand fallacy refers to a belief in the atypical clustering of successes in sequential outcomes when there is none. It has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and Finance. The strongest evidence in support of the fallacy remains that from the canonical domain of basketball, where the widespread belief in the existence of hot hand shooting, among expert players and coaches, has been found to have no evidential basis (Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky 1985). A prominent exhibit of the fallacy is Koehler and Conley (2003)'s study of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1994-1997), a setting which is viewed as ideal for a test of the hot hand (Thaler and Sunstein 2008). In this setting, despite the well-known beliefs of players, coaches, and fans alike, Koehler and Conley and no evidence of hot hand shooting. In the present study, we collect 29 years of shooting data from television broadcasts of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1986-2015), and apply a statistical approach developed in Miller and Sanjurjo (2014), which is more powered, contains an improved set of statistical measures, and corrects for a substantial downward bias in previous estimates of the hot hand effect. In contrast with previous studies, but consistent with Miller and Sanjurjo (2014)'s recent Finding of substantial hot hand shooting in all previous controlled shooting studies (including that from the original study of Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky), we and substantial evidence of hot hand shooting in the NBA Three-Point Contest. This leaves little doubt that the hot hand not only exists, but actually occurs regularly. Thus, belief in the hot hand, in principle, is not a fallacy. JEL Classification Numbers: C12; C14; C91; C93; D03. Keywords: Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect.", "keywords": " hot hand fallacy; hot hand effect.", "author": "Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo", "isPartOf": [ { "@id": "#periodical" }, { "@id": "#number" } ] } ] } </script> </HEAD><BODY> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-G63YGSJVZ7"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-G63YGSJVZ7'); </script> <div class="container"> <div id="header" class="row"> <nav class="navbar navbar-collapse navbar-expand-md" role="navigation"> <a class="navbar-brand" href="/"> <img width="125" src="/ideas4.jpg" border="0" alt="IDEAS home"> </a> <button class="navbar-toggler" type="button" data-toggle="collapse" data-target="#mobilesearch" aria-controls="mobilesearch" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Toggle navigation"> <span class="navbar-toggler-icon"><i class="fa fa-search"></i></span> </button> <div class="collapse" id="mobilesearch"> <div class="form-inline"> <form method="GET" action="/cgi-bin/htsearch2" id="mobilesearch" role="search" 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aria-selected="true">Author & abstract</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link download-tab" id="download-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#download" role="tab" aria-controls="download" aria-selected="false">Download</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="refs-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#refs" role="tab" aria-controls="refs" aria-selected="false">27 References</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="cites-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#cites" role="tab" aria-controls="cites" aria-selected="false">6 Citations</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="mrel-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#mrel" role="tab" aria-controls="mrel" aria-selected="false">Most related</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="more-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#more" role="tab" aria-controls="more" aria-selected="false">Related works & more</a> </li>  <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="correct-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#correct" role="tab" aria-controls="correct" aria-selected="false">Corrections</a> </li> </ul> <div class="tab-content" id="myTabContent"> <div class="tab-pane fade show active" id="author-abstract" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="author-abstract-tab"> <h2>Author</h2> <div id="author-body"> <div id="authortable"> <div id="listed-authors">Listed: <ul id="authorlist"><li class="authorname">Joshua B. Miller</li> <li class="authorname">Adam Sanjurjo</li> </ul></div><div id="registered-authors"> <a href="https://authors.repec.org/">Registered:</a> <ul id="authorregistered"><li><a href="/f/pmi476.html">Joshua Benjamin Miller </A> <i class="fa fa-twitter fa-lg" style="color:#3cf"></i></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <h2 style="clear:left">Abstract</h2><div id="abstract-body">The hot hand fallacy refers to a belief in the atypical clustering of successes in sequential outcomes when there is none. It has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and Finance. The strongest evidence in support of the fallacy remains that from the canonical domain of basketball, where the widespread belief in the existence of hot hand shooting, among expert players and coaches, has been found to have no evidential basis (Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky 1985). A prominent exhibit of the fallacy is Koehler and Conley (2003)'s study of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1994-1997), a setting which is viewed as ideal for a test of the hot hand (Thaler and Sunstein 2008). In this setting, despite the well-known beliefs of players, coaches, and fans alike, Koehler and Conley and no evidence of hot hand shooting. In the present study, we collect 29 years of shooting data from television broadcasts of the NBA Three-Point Contest (1986-2015), and apply a statistical approach developed in Miller and Sanjurjo (2014), which is more powered, contains an improved set of statistical measures, and corrects for a substantial downward bias in previous estimates of the hot hand effect. In contrast with previous studies, but consistent with Miller and Sanjurjo (2014)'s recent Finding of substantial hot hand shooting in all previous controlled shooting studies (including that from the original study of Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky), we and substantial evidence of hot hand shooting in the NBA Three-Point Contest. This leaves little doubt that the hot hand not only exists, but actually occurs regularly. Thus, belief in the hot hand, in principle, is not a fallacy. JEL Classification Numbers: C12; C14; C91; C93; D03. Keywords: Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect.</div> <h2>Suggested Citation</h2> <div id="biblio-body"> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "<B><A HREF="/p/igi/igierp/548.html">Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/igi/igierp.html">Working Papers</A> 548, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. </li> Handle: <i style="word-break:break-all">RePEc:igi:igierp:548</i> <form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="RePEc:igi:igierp:548"> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export reference "> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form></div> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="download" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="download-tab"> <h2>Download full text from publisher</h2><p></p> <FORM METHOD=GET ACTION="/cgi-bin/get_doc.pl" target="_blank"> <INPUT TYPE=HIDDEN NAME="urn" VALUE="RePEc:igi:igierp:548"><INPUT TYPE="radio" NAME="url" VALUE="https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/wp/2015/548.pdf" checked><B>File URL:</B> <span style="word-break:break-all">https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/wp/2015/548.pdf</span><BR><B>Download Restriction:</B> no<BR> <font size="+2" color="red">---><INPUT TYPE="SUBMIT" class="btn fa" VALUE="Download the selected file " style="color:white;background-color:#2d4e8b;"><---</font></FORM><P> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="refs" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="refs-tab"><h2>References listed on IDEAS</h2><form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="repec:eee:intfor:v:9:y:1993:i:3:p:355-371#repec:sae:jospec:v:6:y:2005:i:4:p:390-400#repec:nbr:nberwo:12015#repec:hrv:faseco:3725470#repec:fmg:fmgdps:dp578#repec:ucp:jnlbus:v:64:y:1991:i:1:p:1-19#repec:kap:jrisku:v:30:y:2005:i:3:p:195-209#repec:cpr:ceprdp:6081#repec:oup:restud:v:77:y:2010:i:2:p:730-778#repec:kap:qmktec:v:10:y:2012:i:1:p:27-62#repec:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:1:p:93-130#repec:huj:dispap:dp593#repec:nat:natcom:v:2:y:2011:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms1580#repec:nbr:nberwo:2715#repec:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:7:p:1305-1321#repec:oup:qjecon:v:117:y:2002:i:3:p:775-816.#repec:aea:aecrev:v:83:y:1993:i:5:p:1377-86#repec:bpj:jqsprt:v:6:y:2010:i:1:n:2#repec:igi:igierp:518#repec:cup:maorev:v:10:y:2014:i:03:p:390-390_00#repec:nbr:nberwo:9222#repec:bla:jfinan:v:65:y:2010:i:1:p:217-255#repec:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:5:p:2551-2569#repec:buc:jpredm:v:5:y:2011:i:1:p:31-50#repec:taf:amstat:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:61-66#repec:wop:calbec:_123#repec:ehl:lserod:24476#repec:eee:finchp:2-18#repec:sae:jospec:v:14:y:2013:i:4:p:401-410#repec:ucp:jnlbus:v:72:y:1999:i:4:p:493-521#repec:cup:judgdm:v:1:y:2006:i::p:1-12#repec:bla:jfinan:v:52:y:1997:i:1:p:57-82#repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:18:p:2309-2320#repec:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:1:p:458-73#repec:plo:pone00:0024532"> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export references "> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form> <ol class="list-group"><LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "<B><A HREF="/a/oup/restud/v77y2010i2p730-778.html">The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/oup/restud.html">The Review of Economic Studies</A>, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 730-778. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Rabin, Matthew & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2007. "<B><A HREF="/p/ehl/lserod/24476.html">The gambler's and hot-hand fallacies: theory and applications</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/ehl/lserod.html">LSE Research Online Documents on Economics</A> 24476, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Vayanos, Dimitri & Rabin, Matthew, 2007. "<B><A HREF="/p/cpr/ceprdp/6081.html">The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/cpr/ceprdp.html">CEPR Discussion Papers</A> 6081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2007. 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"<B><A HREF="/p/igi/igierp/518.html">A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/igi/igierp.html">Working Papers</A> 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "<B><A HREF="/a/aea/aecrev/v83y1993i5p1377-86.html">Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/aea/aecrev.html">American Economic Review</A>, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-1386, December. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "<B><A HREF="/a/bla/jfinan/v52y1997i1p57-82.html">On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/bla/jfinan.html">Journal of Finance</A>, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Sridhar Narayanan & Puneet Manchanda, 2012. "<B><A HREF="/a/kap/qmktec/v10y2012i1p27-62.html">An empirical analysis of individual level casino gambling behavior</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/kap/qmktec.html">Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME)</A>, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 27-62, March. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Matthew Rabin, 2002. "<B><A HREF="/a/oup/qjecon/v117y2002i3p775-816..html">Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/oup/qjecon.html">The Quarterly Journal of Economics</A>, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 775-816. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Tal Neiman & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2011. "<B><A HREF="/a/nat/natcom/v2y2011i1d10.1038_ncomms1580.html">Reinforcement learning in professional basketball players</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/nat/natcom.html">Nature Communications</A>, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, September. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> De Long, J Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H & Waldmann, Robert J, 1991. "<B><A HREF="/a/ucp/jnlbus/v64y1991i1p1-19.html">The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/ucp/jnlbus.html">The Journal of Business</A>, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann,, "undated". "<B><A HREF="/p/wop/calbec/_123.html">The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/wop/calbec.html">J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers</A> _123, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1988. "<B><A HREF="/p/nbr/nberwo/2715.html">The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/nbr/nberwo.html">NBER Working Papers</A> 2715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1991. "<B><A HREF="/p/hrv/faseco/3725470.html">The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/hrv/faseco.html">Scholarly Articles</A> 3725470, Harvard University Department of Economics. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2010. "<B><A HREF="/a/bla/jfinan/v65y2010i1p217-255.html">Do Hot Hands Exist among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/bla/jfinan.html">Journal of Finance</A>, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 217-255, February. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2006. "<B><A HREF="/p/nbr/nberwo/12015.html">Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/nbr/nberwo.html">NBER Working Papers</A> 12015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Jeremy Arkes, 2013. "<B><A HREF="/a/sae/jospec/v14y2013i4p401-410.html">Misses in â€œHot Handâ€ Research</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/sae/jospec.html">Journal of Sports Economics</A>, , vol. 14(4), pages 401-410, August. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Gur Yaari & Shmuel Eisenmann, 2011. "<B><A HREF="/a/plo/pone00/0024532.html">The Hot (Invisible?) Hand: Can Time Sequence Patterns of Success/Failure in Sports Be Modeled as Repeated Random Independent Trials?</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/plo/pone00.html">PLOS ONE</A>, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(10), pages 1-10, October. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Gil Aharoni & Oded H. Sarig, 2012. "<B><A HREF="/a/taf/applec/44y2012i18p2309-2320.html">Hot hands and equilibrium</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/taf/applec.html">Applied Economics</A>, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(18), pages 2309-2320, June. <LI class="list-group-item">repec:cup:judgdm:v:1:y:2006:i::p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Roger K. Loh & Mitch Warachka, 2012. "<B><A HREF="/a/inm/ormnsc/v58y2012i7p1305-1321.html">Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/inm/ormnsc.html">Management Science</A>, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1305-1321, July. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Tsang, Eric W. K., 2014. "<B><A HREF="/a/cup/maorev/v10y2014i03p390-390_00.html">Old and New</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/cup/maorev.html">Management and Organization Review</A>, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 390-390, November. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Daniel F. Stone, 2012. "<B><A HREF="/a/taf/amstat/v66y2012i1p61-66.html">Measurement Error and the Hot Hand</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/taf/amstat.html">The American Statistician</A>, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 61-66, February. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Jonathan Guryan & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "<B><A HREF="/a/aea/aecrev/v98y2008i1p458-73.html">Gambling at Lucky Stores: Empirical Evidence from State Lottery Sales</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/aea/aecrev.html">American Economic Review</A>, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 458-473, March. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. "<B><A HREF="/a/bla/jfinan/v48y1993i1p93-130.html">Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/bla/jfinan.html">Journal of Finance</A>, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "<B><A HREF="/a/eee/intfor/v9y1993i3p355-371.html">Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/eee/intfor.html">International Journal of Forecasting</A>, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Jeremy Arkes, 2011. "<B><A HREF="/a/buc/jpredm/v5y2011i1p31-50.html">Do Gamblers Correctly Price Momentum In Nba Betting Markets?</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/buc/jpredm.html">Journal of Prediction Markets</A>, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 5(1), pages 31-50. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "<B><A HREF="/a/ucp/jnlbus/v72y1999i4p493-521.html">Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/ucp/jnlbus.html">The Journal of Business</A>, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Tal Neiman & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2011. "<B><A HREF="/p/huj/dispap/dp593.html">Reinforcement learning in professional basketball players</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/huj/dispap.html">Discussion Paper Series</A> dp593, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Gregory R. Durham & Michael G. Hertzel & J. Spencer Martin, 2005. "<B><A HREF="/a/bla/jfinan/v60y2005i5p2551-2569.html">The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/bla/jfinan.html">Journal of Finance</A>, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2551-2569, October. </ol> <A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://citec.repec.org/cgi-bin/get_data.pl?h=RePEc:igi:igierp:548&o=all"><B>Full references</B> <i class="fa fa-external-link"></i></A> (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)<P> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="cites" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="cites-tab"> <H2>Citations</H2> Citations are extracted by the <A HREF="http://citec.repec.org/">CitEc Project</A>, subscribe to its <A HREF="http://citec.repec.org/cgi-bin/rss.pl?h=RePEc:igi:igierp:548">RSS feed</A> for this item. <form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="repec:wsi:wsbook:10751#repec:nbr:nberwo:26510#repec:spr:jesaex:v:2:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s40881-016-0023-9#repec:inn:wpaper:2013-04#repec:sae:jospec:v:22:y:2021:i:6:p:639-677#repec:osf:osfxxx:pj79r#repec:eee:jeborg:v:117:y:2015:i:c:p:327-339"> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export citations "> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form><P> <BR><B>Cited by:</B><ol class="list-group"><LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Silvia Bou & Jordi Brandts & Magda Cayón & Pablo Guillén, 2016. 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A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/arx/papers.html">Papers</A> 1902.01265, arXiv.org. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2018. "<B><A HREF="/a/wly/emetrp/v86y2018i6p2019-2047.html">Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/wly/emetrp.html">Econometrica</A>, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2019-2047, November. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "<B><A HREF="/p/igi/igierp/552.html">Surprised by the Gamblerâ€™s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/igi/igierp.html">Working Papers</A> 552, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "<B><A HREF="/p/osf/osfxxx/dmgtp.html">A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: Restricted Choice, Selection Bias, and Empirical Practice</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/osf/osfxxx.html">OSF Preprints</A> dmgtp, Center for Open Science. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Brett Green & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2018. "<B><A HREF="/a/inm/ormnsc/v64y2018i11p5315-5348.html">The Hot-Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Major League Baseball</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/inm/ormnsc.html">Management Science</A>, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5315-5348, November. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "<B><A HREF="/p/nbr/nberwo/25200.html">Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/nbr/nberwo.html">NBER Working Papers</A> 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "<B><A HREF="/p/cth/wpaper/gru_2018_023.html">Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/cth/wpaper.html">GRU Working Paper Series</A> GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2024. "<B><A HREF="/a/sae/jospec/v25y2024i3p283-321.html">The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/sae/jospec.html">Journal of Sports Economics</A>, , vol. 25(3), pages 283-321, April. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Robert M. Lantis & Erik T. Nesson, 2021. "<B><A HREF="/p/nbr/nberwo/29468.html">The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/nbr/nberwo.html">NBER Working Papers</A> 29468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2021. "<B><A HREF="/a/sae/jospec/v22y2021i6p639-677.html">Hot Shots: An Analysis of the â€œHot Handâ€ in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/sae/jospec.html">Journal of Sports Economics</A>, , vol. 22(6), pages 639-677, August. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Marius Ötting & Roland Langrock & Christian Deutscher & Vianey Leos‐Barajas, 2020. 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"<B><A HREF="/a/inm/ormnsc/v68y2022i6p4151-4172.html">Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/inm/ormnsc.html">Management Science</A>, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4151-4172, June. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2015. "<B><A HREF="/p/esm/wpaper/esmt-15-01.html">Hedge fund flows and performance streaks: How investors weigh information</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/esm/wpaper.html">ESMT Research Working Papers</A> ESMT-15-01, ESMT European School of Management and Technology. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Angie Andrikogiannopoulou & Filippos Papakonstantinou, 2018. "<B><A HREF="/a/inm/ormnsc/v64y2018i4p1957-1973.html">Individual Reaction to Past Performance Sequences: Evidence from a Real Marketplace</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/inm/ormnsc.html">Management Science</A>, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1957-1973, April. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Salaghe, Florina & Sundali, James & Nichols, Mark W. & Guerrero, Federico, 2020. "<B><A HREF="/a/eee/jeborg/v169y2020icp369-388.html">An empirical investigation of wagering behavior in a large sample of slot machine gamblers</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/eee/jeborg.html">Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization</A>, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 369-388. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano, 2019. "<B><A HREF="/p/arx/papers/1908.01406.html">Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/arx/papers.html">Papers</A> 1908.01406, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021. </ol> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="more" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="more-tab"> <H2> More about this item</H2> <h3>Keywords</h3> <A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22+hot+hand+fallacy%22" rel="nofollow"> hot hand fallacy</A>; <A HREF="/cgi-bin/htsearch2?q=%22hot+hand+effect.%22" rel="nofollow">hot hand effect.</A>; <H3><A HREF="/j/">JEL</A> classification:</h3> <UL> <LI><A HREF="/j/C12.html"><B>C12</B></A> - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General</LI> <LI><A HREF="/j/C14.html"><B>C14</B></A> - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General</LI> <LI><A HREF="/j/C91.html"><B>C91</B></A> - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior</LI> <LI><A HREF="/j/C93.html"><B>C93</B></A> - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments</LI> <LI><A HREF="/j/D03.html"><B>D03</B></A> - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles</LI> </UL><P> <h3>NEP fields</h3> This paper has been announced in the following <A HREF="http://nep.repec.org/">NEP Reports</A>: <UL><LI><A HREF="/n/nep-cbe/2015-06-13.html">NEP-CBE-2015-06-13</A> (Cognitive and Behavioural Economics)</LI> </UL> <h3>Statistics</h3> <A HREF="http://logec.repec.org/scripts/paperstat.pl?h=RePEc:igi:igierp:548">Access and download statistics</A> </div>  <div class="tab-pane fade" id="correct" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="correct-tab"> <h2>Corrections</H2> <P>All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. 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