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class="vector-toc-link" href="#Commentators"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Commentators</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Commentators-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Public_opinion" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Public_opinion"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Public opinion</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Public_opinion-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Further_reading" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Further_reading"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>Further reading</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Further_reading-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" 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class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bn mw-list-item"><a href="https://bn.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%A6%86%E0%A6%AE%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A8_%E0%A6%AA%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%A8" title="আমেরিকান পতন – Bangla" lang="bn" hreflang="bn" data-title="আমেরিকান পতন" data-language-autonym="বাংলা" data-language-local-name="Bangla" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>বাংলা</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decadencia_de_los_Estados_Unidos" title="Decadencia de los Estados Unidos – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Decadencia de los Estados Unidos" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%88%D9%84_%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C" title="افول آمریکایی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="افول آمریکایی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%A9clin_des_%C3%89tats-Unis" title="Déclin des États-Unis – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Déclin des États-Unis" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemunduran_Amerika_Serikat" title="Kemunduran Amerika Serikat – Indonesian" lang="id" hreflang="id" data-title="Kemunduran Amerika Serikat" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Indonesia" data-language-local-name="Indonesian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Indonesia</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%99%D7%9B%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%9E%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%A7%D7%90%D7%99%D7%AA" title="דעיכה אמריקאית – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="דעיכה אמריקאית" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>עברית</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ps mw-list-item"><a href="https://ps.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AF_%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7_%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84" title="د امریکا زوال – Pashto" lang="ps" hreflang="ps" data-title="د امریکا زوال" data-language-autonym="پښتو" data-language-local-name="Pashto" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>پښتو</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decl%C3%ADnio_dos_Estados_Unidos" title="Declínio dos Estados Unidos – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Declínio dos Estados Unidos" data-language-autonym="Português" 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</div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Idea that the United States is diminishing in power</div> <p class="mw-empty-elt"> </p> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Bethlehem_Steel.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Bethlehem_Steel.jpg/220px-Bethlehem_Steel.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="147" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Bethlehem_Steel.jpg/330px-Bethlehem_Steel.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Bethlehem_Steel.jpg/440px-Bethlehem_Steel.jpg 2x" data-file-width="1500" data-file-height="1004" /></a><figcaption>Disused <a href="/wiki/Bethlehem_Steel" title="Bethlehem Steel">Bethlehem Steel</a> plant in <a href="/wiki/Bethlehem,_Pennsylvania" title="Bethlehem, Pennsylvania">Bethlehem, Pennsylvania</a>. At the height of its success and productivity, the company was a symbol of American manufacturing leadership in the world. The company suspended most of its steelmaking operations in 1982 and declared bankruptcy in 2001; this factory is now part of the <a href="/wiki/Bethlehem_Works" title="Bethlehem Works">Bethlehem Works</a> development site.</figcaption></figure> <p><b>American decline</b> is the idea that the <a href="/wiki/United_States" title="United States">United States of America</a> is diminishing in power on a relative basis <a href="/wiki/Geopolitics" title="Geopolitics">geopolitically</a>, <a href="/wiki/Military_of_the_United_States" class="mw-redirect" title="Military of the United States">militarily</a>, financially, <a href="/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States" title="Economy of the United States">economically</a>, and technologically. It can also refer to absolute declines demographically, socially, morally, spiritually, culturally, in matters of healthcare, and/or on <a href="/wiki/Environmental_issues_in_the_United_States" title="Environmental issues in the United States">environmental issues</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Sarah_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Sarah-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-HP_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-HP-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-news_Biden's_Opportunity_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-news_Biden's_Opportunity-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> There has been debate over the extent of the decline and whether it is relative or absolute.<sup id="cite_ref-Atlantic_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Atlantic-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-csba_Understanding_America's_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-csba_Understanding_America's-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:1_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Shrinking military advantages, deficit spending, geopolitical overreach, and a shift in moral, social, and behavioral conditions have been associated with American decline. The <a href="/wiki/Chinese_Century" title="Chinese Century">ascent of China</a> as a <a href="/wiki/Potential_superpower" title="Potential superpower">potential superpower</a> emerged as a central concern in discussions about the decline of American influence since the late 2010s, with some scholars suggesting that China has the potential to challenge the United States' current position as the world's leading <a href="/wiki/Superpower" title="Superpower">superpower</a>, though other scholars have criticized this view.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:1_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Scholars say that the perception of decline, or <a href="/wiki/Declinism" title="Declinism">declinism</a>, has long been part of <a href="/wiki/Culture_of_the_United_States" title="Culture of the United States">American culture</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-nati_Don't_Panic_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nati_Don't_Panic-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Rhetoric of American decline was prevalent in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s, as well as in the aftermath of the <a href="/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_financial_crisis" title="2007–2008 financial crisis">2008 Financial Crisis</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Assessment">Assessment</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Assessment"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>According to <a href="/wiki/Jeet_Heer" title="Jeet Heer">Jeet Heer</a>, U.S. hegemony has always been supported by three pillars: "economic strength, military might, and the soft power of cultural dominance."<sup id="cite_ref-NR1_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NR1-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to American diplomat <a href="/wiki/Eric_S._Edelman" title="Eric S. Edelman">Eric S. Edelman</a>, the declinists, or those who believe America is in decline, have been "consistently wrong" in the past.<sup id="cite_ref-csba_Understanding_America's_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-csba_Understanding_America's-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, American political scientist <a href="/wiki/Aaron_Friedberg" title="Aaron Friedberg">Aaron Friedberg</a> cautioned that just because the declinists were wrong in the past does not mean they will be incorrect in their future predictions, and that some of the arguments by the declinists deserve to be taken seriously.<sup id="cite_ref-csba_Understanding_America's_5-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-csba_Understanding_America's-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-thea_Same_Old_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-thea_Same_Old-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Political scientist <a href="/wiki/Matthew_Kroenig" title="Matthew Kroenig">Matthew Kroenig</a> argues Washington has "followed the same basic, three-step geopolitical plan since 1945. First, the United States built the current, <a href="/wiki/Liberal_international_order" title="Liberal international order">rules-based international system</a><span class="nowrap"> </span>... Second, it welcomed into the club any country that played by the rules, even former adversaries<span class="nowrap"> </span>... and third, the U.S. worked with its allies to defend the system from those countries or groups that would challenge it."<sup id="cite_ref-:3_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Deficit_spending">Deficit spending</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Deficit spending"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Paul_Kennedy" title="Paul Kennedy">Paul Kennedy</a> posits that continued deficit spending, especially on military build-up, is the single most important reason for decline of any great power. The costs of the wars in <a href="/wiki/US_invasion_of_Iraq" class="mw-redirect" title="US invasion of Iraq">Iraq</a> and <a href="/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan" title="War in Afghanistan">Afghanistan</a> were as of 2017 estimated to run as high as $4.4 trillion, which Kennedy deems a major victory for <a href="/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden" title="Osama bin Laden">Osama bin Laden</a>, whose announced goal was to humiliate America by showcasing its casualty averseness and lack of will to persist in a long-term conflict. By 2011, the U.S. military budget — almost matching that of the rest of the world combined — was higher in real terms than at any time since WWII.<sup id="cite_ref-kennedy_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kennedy-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Kennedy made similar assessments about American decline in his book <i><a href="/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Great_Powers" title="The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers">The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers</a>,</i> in which he projected "a need to 'manage' affairs so that the relative erosion of the United States' position takes place slowly and smoothly."<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The book was published in 1989, three years before the <a href="/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union" title="Dissolution of the Soviet Union">dissolution of the Soviet Union</a> and several years before the bursting of the <a href="/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble" title="Japanese asset price bubble">Japanese asset price bubble</a>, leaving the United States as the sole remaining superpower and the dominant political and economic power internationally.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Geopolitical_overreach">Geopolitical overreach</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Geopolitical overreach"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:American_bases_worldwide.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/eb/American_bases_worldwide.svg/267px-American_bases_worldwide.svg.png" decoding="async" width="267" height="137" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/eb/American_bases_worldwide.svg/401px-American_bases_worldwide.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/eb/American_bases_worldwide.svg/534px-American_bases_worldwide.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="512" data-file-height="263" /></a><figcaption>Countries with United States military bases and facilities in 2023</figcaption></figure><p>According to historian <a href="/wiki/Emmanuel_Todd" title="Emmanuel Todd">Emmanuel Todd</a>, an expansion in military activity and aggression can appear to reflect an increase in capacity while masking a decline in actual power. He observes that this occurred with the <a href="/wiki/Soviet_Union" title="Soviet Union">Soviet Union</a> in the 1970s, with Russia currently, and with the <a href="/wiki/Roman_Empire" title="Roman Empire">Roman Empire</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and that the United States may be going through a similar period in time. </p><p>There were 38 large and medium-sized <a href="/wiki/List_of_United_States_military_bases" class="mw-redirect" title="List of United States military bases">American facilities spread around the globe</a> in 2005—mostly air and naval bases—approximately the same number as Britain's 36 naval bases and army garrisons at its imperial zenith in 1898.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Kennedy compares the U.S. situation to Great Britain's prior to <a href="/wiki/World_War_I" title="World War I">World War I</a>, saying that the map of U.S. bases is similar.<sup id="cite_ref-kennedy_16-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kennedy-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Culture">Culture</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Culture"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Commentators such as <a href="/wiki/Allan_Bloom" title="Allan Bloom">Allan Bloom</a>, <a href="/wiki/E._D._Hirsch" title="E. D. Hirsch">E. D. Hirsch,</a> and <a href="/wiki/Russel_Jacoby" class="mw-redirect" title="Russel Jacoby">Russel Jacoby</a> have suggested American culture is in decline.<sup id="cite_ref-Js_21-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Js-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Samuel_P._Huntington" title="Samuel P. Huntington">Samuel P. Huntington</a> commented critically on a trend in American culture and politics of predicting constant decline since the late 1950s. As he saw it, declinism came in several distinct waves, namely in reaction to the Soviet Union's launch of Sputnik; to the Vietnam War; to the oil shock of 1973; to Soviet tensions in the late 1970s; and to the general unease that accompanied the end of the Cold War.<sup id="cite_ref-Atlantic_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Atlantic-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to American historian <a href="/wiki/Russell_Jacoby" title="Russell Jacoby">Russell Jacoby</a>, the rise of academic <a href="/wiki/Marxism" title="Marxism">Marxism</a>, <a href="/wiki/Radical_politics" title="Radical politics">radical political economies</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Literary_criticism" title="Literary criticism">critical literary</a> and <a href="/wiki/Cultural_studies" title="Cultural studies">cultural studies</a> since World War II has contributed to the decline of American culture.<sup id="cite_ref-Js_21-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Js-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p><a href="/wiki/William_J._Bennett" class="mw-redirect" title="William J. Bennett">William J. Bennett</a> argued that America's cultural decline is signaling "a shift in the public's attitudes and beliefs".<sup id="cite_ref-Quantifying_22-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Quantifying-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to the Index of Leading Cultural Indicators, published in 1993, statistically portraying the moral, social and behavioral conditions of modern American society, often described as 'values', America's cultural condition was in decline with respect to the situations of 30 years ago, 1963. The index showed that there has been an increase in <a href="/wiki/Violent_crime" title="Violent crime">violent crime</a> by more than 6 times, <a href="/wiki/Illegitimate_birth" class="mw-redirect" title="Illegitimate birth">illegitimate births</a> by more than 5 times, the divorce rate by 5 times, the percentage of children living in single-parent homes by four times, and the teenage suicide rate by three times during the 30-year period.<sup id="cite_ref-Quantifying_22-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Quantifying-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, by 2011, Bennett and others had acknowledged that there had been a marked reduction in the violent crime rate, a reduction of suicide and divorce, as well as improvements in many other social metrics, since 1993.<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Bennett wrote that contemporary authors see these improving metrics as evidence that the social decline from the 1960s to the early 1990s was temporary, while others (including Bennett) remain sceptical.<sup id="cite_ref-FOOTNOTEBennett20115_25-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-FOOTNOTEBennett20115-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>According to Kenneth Weisbrode, though some statistics point to American decline (increased death rate, political paralysis, and increased crime), "Americans have had a low culture for a very long time and have long promoted it". He thinks that the obsession with decline is not something new, but something dating back to the Puritans. "Cultural decline, in other words, is as American as apple pie," Weisbrode argues. Weisbrode likens pre-revolutionary France and present-day America for their vulgarity, which he argues is "an almost natural extension or outcome of all that is civilized: a glorification of ego."<sup id="cite_ref-nati_Don't_Panic_10-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nati_Don't_Panic-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>David A. Bell argued that the perception of decline is part of the culture. "What the long history of American 'declinism' -- as opposed to America's actual possible decline -- suggests," says David Bell, "is that these anxieties have an existence of their own that is quite distinct from the actual geopolitical position of our country; that they arise as much from something deeply rooted in the collective psyche of our chattering classes as from sober political and economic analyses."<sup id="cite_ref-:0_11-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>According to <a href="/wiki/RealClearPolitics" title="RealClearPolitics">RealClearPolitics</a>, declarations of America's declining power have been common since the beginning of the country.<sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to British journalist Nick Bryant, "warnings of American decline are by no means new".<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In the 20th century, declinism came in several distinct waves.<sup id="cite_ref-Atlantic2_28-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Atlantic2-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:02_29-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:02-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In a 2011 book, <a href="/wiki/Thomas_L._Friedman" class="mw-redirect" title="Thomas L. Friedman">Thomas L. Friedman</a> and <a href="/wiki/Michael_Mandelbaum" title="Michael Mandelbaum">Michael Mandelbaum</a> argued that the United States was in the midst of "its fifth wave of Declinism." The first had come "with the 'Sputnik Shock' of 1957," the second with the <a href="/wiki/Vietnam_War" title="Vietnam War">Vietnam War</a>, the third with President <a href="/wiki/Jimmy_Carter" title="Jimmy Carter">Jimmy Carter</a>'s "malaise" and the rise of Japan, and the fourth with the increased power of China.<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to <a href="/wiki/Robert_Lieber" title="Robert Lieber">Robert Lieber</a> in 2021, “declinists’ proclamations about America have appeared ever since America's founding" and "it can be instructive to compare current arguments and prescriptions of the new declinism with the ideas of earlier eras."<sup id="cite_ref-:02_29-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:02-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Political_polarization">Political polarization</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Political polarization"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Political_polarization_in_the_United_States" title="Political polarization in the United States">Political polarization in the United States</a></div> <p><a href="/wiki/David_Leonhardt" title="David Leonhardt">David Leonhardt</a> writes that "incomes, wealth, and life expectancy in the United States have stagnated for much of the population, contributing to an angry national mood and exacerbating political divisions. The result is a semidysfunctional government that is eroding many of the country’s largest advantages over China."<sup id="cite_ref-:4_31-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:4-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Jonathan_Hopkin" title="Jonathan Hopkin">Jonathan Hopkin</a> writes that decades of <a href="/wiki/Neoliberal" class="mw-redirect" title="Neoliberal">neoliberal</a> policies, which made the United States "the most extreme case of the subjection of society to the brute force of the market," resulted in unprecedented levels of <a href="/wiki/Income_inequality_in_the_United_States" title="Income inequality in the United States">inequality</a>, and combined with an unstable financial system and limited political choices, paved the way for political instability and revolt, as evidenced by the resurgence of the <a href="/wiki/American_Left" title="American Left">Left</a> as represented by <a href="/wiki/Bernie_Sanders_2016_presidential_campaign" title="Bernie Sanders 2016 presidential campaign">the Bernie Sanders 2016 presidential campaign</a> and the rise of an "unlikely figure" like <a href="/wiki/Donald_Trump" title="Donald Trump">Donald Trump</a> to the presidency of the United States.<sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2021, <a href="/wiki/Michael_McFaul" title="Michael McFaul">Michael McFaul</a>, former <a href="/wiki/U.S._ambassador_to_Russia" class="mw-redirect" title="U.S. ambassador to Russia">U.S. Ambassador to Russia</a> from 2012 to 2014, stated his belief that the U.S. has faced a democratic decline, stemming from elite polarization and damage done by former president Donald Trump to trust in elections and bonds with democratic allies. McFaul states that the decline in democracy weakens national security and heavily restrains foreign policy.<sup id="cite_ref-33" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Economy">Economy</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Economy"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" style="float:right;"> <tbody><tr> <td><div class="timeline-wrapper"><map name="timeline_bxnd5cdxs2lujbeevcq5q7niwyjg5wn"></map><img usemap="#timeline_bxnd5cdxs2lujbeevcq5q7niwyjg5wn" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/bxnd5cdxs2lujbeevcq5q7niwyjg5wn.png" /></div> </td></tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center; font-size:90%;">Largest economies in the world by GDP (nominal) in 2022<br />according to <a href="/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund" title="International Monetary Fund">International Monetary Fund</a> estimates<sup id="cite_ref-GDP_IMF_34-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-GDP_IMF-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Economist Jeffrey Sachs observed the US share of world income was 24.6% in 1980, falling to 19.1% in 2011.<sup id="cite_ref-NR1_13-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NR1-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The ratio of average CEO earnings to average workers’ pay in the U.S. went from 24:1 in 1965 to 262:1 in 2005.<sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Sarah_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Sarah-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The <a href="/wiki/United_States_Census_Bureau" title="United States Census Bureau">Census Bureau</a>'s record of income inequality reached its highest point in 2018.<sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Some centrists believe that the American fiscal crisis stems from the rising expenditures on social programs or, alternatively, from the increases in military spending for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, both of which would lead to decline. However, <a href="/wiki/Richard_Lachmann" title="Richard Lachmann">Richard Lachmann</a> argues that if military or overall spending is not pressuring the U.S. economy, they would not contribute to U.S. decline. Lachmann describes the real problem as "the misallocation of government revenue and expenditure, resulting in resources being diverted from the tasks vital to maintain economic or geopolitical dominance."<sup id="cite_ref-Lach_37-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Lach-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Kennedy argues that as military expenses grow, this reduces investments in economic growth, which eventually "leads to the downward spiral of slower growth, heavier taxes, deepening domestic splits over spending priorities, and weakening capacity to bear the burdens of defense."<sup id="cite_ref-kennedy_16-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kennedy-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Health">Health</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Health"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Life_expectancy_in_some_big_countries.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/Life_expectancy_in_some_big_countries.png/220px-Life_expectancy_in_some_big_countries.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="140" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/Life_expectancy_in_some_big_countries.png/330px-Life_expectancy_in_some_big_countries.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f5/Life_expectancy_in_some_big_countries.png/440px-Life_expectancy_in_some_big_countries.png 2x" data-file-width="1386" data-file-height="880" /></a><figcaption><a href="/wiki/Life_expectancy_at_birth" class="mw-redirect" title="Life expectancy at birth">Life expectancy at birth</a> in several large countries; the US (dark blue) can be seen to fall behind other wealthy nations from the 1980s onward, and life expectancy has decreased since the <a href="/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic" title="COVID-19 pandemic">COVID-19 pandemic</a>.</figcaption></figure> <p>The economists <a href="/wiki/Anne_Case" title="Anne Case">Anne Case</a> and <a href="/wiki/Angus_Deaton" title="Angus Deaton">Angus Deaton</a> attribute rising mortality, which is mostly impacting the <a href="/wiki/Working_class_in_the_United_States" title="Working class in the United States">working class</a>, to the flaws in contemporary <a href="/wiki/Capitalism" title="Capitalism">capitalism</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Competition_with_China">Competition with China</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Competition with China"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:GDP_-_United_States,_China.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/GDP_-_United_States%2C_China.svg/400px-GDP_-_United_States%2C_China.svg.png" decoding="async" width="400" height="291" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/GDP_-_United_States%2C_China.svg/600px-GDP_-_United_States%2C_China.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/GDP_-_United_States%2C_China.svg/800px-GDP_-_United_States%2C_China.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="495" data-file-height="360" /></a><figcaption>GDP (current US$) - United States, China (in trillions of US$, 1960–2019)</figcaption></figure> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:GDP_per_capita_-_United_States,_China.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/GDP_per_capita_-_United_States%2C_China.svg/400px-GDP_per_capita_-_United_States%2C_China.svg.png" decoding="async" width="400" height="291" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/GDP_per_capita_-_United_States%2C_China.svg/600px-GDP_per_capita_-_United_States%2C_China.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/GDP_per_capita_-_United_States%2C_China.svg/800px-GDP_per_capita_-_United_States%2C_China.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="495" data-file-height="360" /></a><figcaption>GDP per capita - United States, China (1960–2019)</figcaption></figure> <p>China challenging the United States for global dominance constitutes a core issue in the debate over the American decline.<sup id="cite_ref-Ali_39-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Ali-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:5_40-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Cn-domin_41-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Cn-domin-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2020, China surpassed the US for a second time as the world's leading nation for <a href="/wiki/Foreign_direct_investment" title="Foreign direct investment">foreign direct investment</a> (FDI) due to <a href="/wiki/COVID-19_lockdowns" title="COVID-19 lockdowns">Covid-19 lockdowns</a>. <a href="/wiki/Daniel_H._Rosen" title="Daniel H. Rosen">Daniel H. Rosen</a>, a long-time analyst of U.S.-China economic relationship, said that it is natural that foreign investment would decline sharply in the U.S. under extraordinary circumstances due to its open market economy, a feature that China lacks. Rosen said, "There is no reason to be concerned about the outlook for the FDI in the United States, provided that the U.S. is sticking with its basic open-market competitive system." Previously, in 2003, China surpassed the US once as the biggest recipient of FDI.<sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Chinese FDI increased from 2020 to 2021 then dramatically decreased from a high of $344 bln down to $33 bln in 2023.<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> By comparison, US FDI has maintained $148.8 billion, down $57.4 billion, or 28 percent, from $206.2 billion in 2022.<sup id="cite_ref-44" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>According to former <a href="/wiki/Australian_prime_minister" class="mw-redirect" title="Australian prime minister">Australian prime minister</a> <a href="/wiki/Kevin_Rudd" title="Kevin Rudd">Kevin Rudd</a>, "China has multiple domestic vulnerabilities that are rarely noted in the media. The United States, on the other hand, always has its weaknesses on full public display but has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity for reinvention and restoration."<sup id="cite_ref-fore_Short_of_45-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-fore_Short_of-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Ryan_Hass" title="Ryan Hass">Ryan Hass</a> of the <a href="/wiki/Brookings_Institution" title="Brookings Institution">Brookings Institution</a> said that much of the narrative of China "inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States" was promoted by China's state-affiliated media outlets. Hass went on to say, "Authoritarian systems excel at showcasing their strengths and concealing their weaknesses. But policymakers in Washington must be able to distinguish between the image Beijing presents and the realities it confronts."<sup id="cite_ref-fore_China_not_46-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-fore_China_not-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>According to American economist <a href="/wiki/Scott_Rozelle" title="Scott Rozelle">Scott Rozelle</a> and researcher Natalie Hell, "China looks a lot more like 1980s Mexico or Turkey than 1980s Taiwan or South Korea. No country has ever made it to high-income status with high school attainment rates below 50 percent. With China's high school attainment rate of 30 percent, the country could be in grave trouble." By comparison, the US high school attainment rate is 91.1 percent, according to the latest census.<sup id="cite_ref-47" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Invisible_China_48-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Invisible_China-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Rozelle and Hell warn that China risks falling into the <a href="/wiki/Middle_income_trap" title="Middle income trap">middle income trap</a> due to the <a href="/wiki/Rural_urban_income_inequality_in_China" class="mw-redirect" title="Rural urban income inequality in China">rural-urban divide</a> in education and <a href="/wiki/Structural_unemployment" title="Structural unemployment">structural unemployment</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Invisible_China_48-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Invisible_China-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p><a href="/wiki/Nicholas_Eberstadt" title="Nicholas Eberstadt">Nicholas Eberstadt</a>, an economist and demographic expert at the <a href="/wiki/American_Enterprise_Institute" title="American Enterprise Institute">American Enterprise Institute</a>, said that current demographic trends will overwhelm China's economy and geopolitics, making its rise much more uncertain. He said, "The age of heroic economic growth is over."<sup id="cite_ref-axio_Demographics_may_49-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-axio_Demographics_may-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Comparisons_with_earlier_states">Comparisons with earlier states</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Comparisons with earlier states"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Superpower_collapse" class="mw-redirect" title="Superpower collapse">Superpower collapse</a></div> <p>Samuel P. Huntington noticed that predictions of American decline have been part of American politics since the late 1950s. According to Daniel Bell, "many of America's leading commentators have had a powerful impulse consistently to see the United States as a weak, 'bred out' basket case that will fall to stronger rivals as inevitably as Rome fell to the barbarians or France to <a href="/wiki/Henry_V_of_England" title="Henry V of England">Henry V</a> at <a href="/wiki/Battle_of_Agincourt" title="Battle of Agincourt">Agincourt</a>."<sup id="cite_ref-Atlantic_4-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Atlantic-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_11-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Huntington critiqued declinism as misguided but praised it on some counts: "Declinism has predicted the imminent shrinkage of American power. In all its phases, that prediction has become central to preventing that shrinkage."<sup id="cite_ref-50" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p><a href="/wiki/Michael_Hudson_(economist)" title="Michael Hudson (economist)">Michael Hudson</a> points to debt forgiveness being necessary when individuals' debts to the state are too large. Whereas earlier empires (<a href="/wiki/Assyrian_empire" class="mw-redirect" title="Assyrian empire">Assyrian</a>) survived through periodic debt forgiveness, this practice ended with the <a href="/wiki/Roman_empire" class="mw-redirect" title="Roman empire">Roman empire</a>, resulting in impoverishment and dispossession of farmers, creating a growing <a href="/wiki/Lumpenproletariat" title="Lumpenproletariat">lumpenproletariat</a>. The same process contributed to the collapse of the <a href="/wiki/British_empire" class="mw-redirect" title="British empire">British empire</a> and continues today, with periodic financial crises (1930s, 2008), which are only relieved by government bailouts and/or war. Hudson adds that whenever history repeats itself, the cost increases; in this case, the U.S. is destroying itself due to bank debt with no way to forgive it, making collapse inevitable.<sup id="cite_ref-Huds_51-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Huds-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Political scientist <a href="/wiki/Paul_K._MacDonald" title="Paul K. MacDonald">Paul K. Macdonald</a> writes that great powers can be in relative or absolute decline and discussed the ways they often respond. The most common is retrenchment (reducing some but not all commitments of the state).<sup id="cite_ref-MC_52-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MC-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Roman_Empire">Roman Empire</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Roman Empire"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Certain commentators, historians and politicians believe U.S. is heir to the Roman Empire.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template" style="margin-left:0.1em; white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Please_clarify" title="Wikipedia:Please clarify"><span title="what exactly are they inhereting? (January 2022)">clarification needed</span></a></i>]</sup> According to <a href="/wiki/Kristofer_Allerfeldt" title="Kristofer Allerfeldt">Kristofer Allerfeldt</a>, there are divergent views regarding Rome vs U.S. comparison. He believes that the "use of the Roman metaphor provides a scholarly patina to the expression of visceral hopes and fears."<sup id="cite_ref-53" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Britain">Britain</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Britain"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Kennedy argues that "British financial strength was the single most decisive factor in its victories over France during the 18th century. This chapter ends on the <a href="/wiki/Napoleonic_Wars" title="Napoleonic Wars">Napoleonic Wars</a> and the fusion of British financial strength with a newfound industrial strength." He predicts that, as the U.S. dollar loses its role as world currency, it will not be able to continue financing its military expenditures via deficit spending.<sup id="cite_ref-kennedy_16-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-kennedy-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>According to <a href="/wiki/Richard_Lachmann" title="Richard Lachmann">Richard Lachmann</a>, the U.S. would last much longer if, like <a href="/wiki/British_Empire" title="British Empire">Britain</a>, it could restrict particular families and elites from exclusively controlling offices and governmental powers.<sup id="cite_ref-Lach_37-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Lach-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Soviet_Union">Soviet Union</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Soviet Union"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Historian <a href="/wiki/Harold_James_(historian)" title="Harold James (historian)">Harold James</a> published an article in 2020 titled "Late Soviet America", comparing the present-day United States to the former Soviet Union. James wrote that many aspects of the US now resemble the late Soviet Union: intensification of social conflict, ethnic/racial rivalries, and economic decline. He predicted that the dollar may lose its value and start looking like the <a href="/wiki/Soviet_rouble" class="mw-redirect" title="Soviet rouble">Soviet rouble</a>. James ended the article by saying that the economic decline will continue even if there is a change in leadership, pointing to <a href="/wiki/Mikhail_Gorbachev" title="Mikhail Gorbachev">Mikhail Gorbachev</a>'s inability to prevent <a href="/wiki/Collapse_of_the_Soviet_Union" class="mw-redirect" title="Collapse of the Soviet Union">collapse</a> despite coming to power just a few years after <a href="/wiki/Leonid_Brezhnev" title="Leonid Brezhnev">Leonid Brezhnev</a>'s death.<sup id="cite_ref-54" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Also in 2020, political commentator <a href="/wiki/Julius_Krein" title="Julius Krein">Julius Krein</a> argued that the decline of the United States parallels the late Soviet Union vis-à-vis the "unmistakable" slide into <a href="/wiki/Gerontocracy" title="Gerontocracy">gerontocracy</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-55" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Commentators">Commentators</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: Commentators"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li>Philosophers <a href="/wiki/Michael_Hardt" title="Michael Hardt">Michael Hardt</a> and <a href="/wiki/Antonio_Negri" title="Antonio Negri">Antonio</a> Negri theorize in the mid-1990s about an ongoing transition to an emergent construct created among ruling powers, which the authors call <a href="/wiki/Empire_(Hardt_and_Negri_book)" title="Empire (Hardt and Negri book)">"Empire"</a>.</li> <li>American historian <a href="/wiki/Morris_Berman" title="Morris Berman">Morris Berman</a> wrote a trilogy of books published between 2000 and 2011 about the decline of American civilization.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (January 2021)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Igor_Panarin" title="Igor Panarin">Igor Panarin</a>, a political scientist and graduate of the Higher Military Command School of Telecommunications of the <a href="/wiki/KGB" title="KGB">KGB</a>, predicted that, starting in 1998, the US would collapse into six parts in 2010.<sup id="cite_ref-56" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> He also wrote <i>The Crash of the Dollar and the Disintegration of the USA</i> (2009).<sup id="cite_ref-57" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-57"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>57<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>American journalist <a href="/wiki/Chris_Hedges" title="Chris Hedges">Chris Hedges</a>, in his 2018 book <i>America, The Farewell Tour</i>, predicts that "within a decade, two at most," America will cease to be the dominant super-power in the world.<sup id="cite_ref-58" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-58"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>58<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-59" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-59"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>59<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Jean_Chr%C3%A9tien" title="Jean Chrétien">Jean Chrétien</a>, former <a href="/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Canada" title="Prime Minister of Canada">prime minister</a> of <a href="/wiki/Canada" title="Canada">Canada</a> (1993–2003), described Trump's election as a "monumental error" that heralded "the true end of the American empire" in a 2018 memoir.<sup id="cite_ref-60" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Public_opinion">Public opinion</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: Public opinion"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>A 2019 survey carried out by <a href="/wiki/Pew_Research_Center" title="Pew Research Center">Pew Research Center</a> shows that a majority of Americans predicted the U.S. economy to be weaker in 2050. Also, the survey says, a majority of the people thought the U.S. would be "a country with a burgeoning national debt, a wider gap between the rich and the poor and a workforce threatened by automation."<sup id="cite_ref-pew_61-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pew-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In a poll conducted January 11–13, 2021, of 1,019 Americans, shortly after the <a href="/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack" title="January 6 United States Capitol attack">January 6 Capitol attack</a>, 79% of those surveyed said that America is "falling apart".<sup id="cite_ref-axios_Republicans_and_62-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-axios_Republicans_and-62"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>62<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-futu_79_percent_63-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-futu_79_percent-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-ipso_Majority_of_64-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ipso_Majority_of-64"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>64<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-theh_4_in_5_say_65-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-theh_4_in_5_say-65"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>65<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/After_the_Empire" title="After the Empire">After the Empire</a></i> by <a href="/wiki/Emmanuel_Todd" title="Emmanuel Todd">Emmanuel Todd</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/American_Century" title="American Century">American Century</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/American_Empire_Project" title="American Empire Project">American Empire Project</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/American_imperialism" title="American imperialism">American imperialism</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Civil_War_(2024_film)" class="mw-redirect" title="Civil War (2024 film)">Civil War</a></i>, a 2024 action war film</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Decadence" title="Decadence">Decadence</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/The_Decline_(EP)" title="The Decline (EP)">The Decline (EP)</a></i>, a 1999 punk rock song</li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West" title="The Decline of the West">The Decline of the West</a></i> by <a href="/wiki/Oswald_Spengler" title="Oswald Spengler">Oswald Spengler</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dumbing_down" title="Dumbing down">Dumbing down</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Idiocracy" title="Idiocracy">Idiocracy</a></i>, a 2006 science fiction comedy film</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_decline" title="Managed decline">Managed decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pax_Americana" title="Pax Americana">Pax Americana</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Western_era" title="Post-Western era">Post-Western era</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rust_Belt" title="Rust Belt">Rust Belt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sick_man_of_Europe" title="Sick man of Europe">Sick man of Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Societal_collapse" title="Societal collapse">Societal collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/State_collapse" title="State collapse">State collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Superpower_collapse" class="mw-redirect" title="Superpower collapse">Superpower collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008" class="mw-redirect" title="Financial crisis of 2007–2008">Financial crisis of 2007-2008</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist reflist-columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-Sarah-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Sarah_1-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Sarah_1-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">March 28,</span> 2019</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Public+Sees+America%27s+Future+in+Decline+on+Many+Fronts+%7C+Pew+Research+Center&rft.date=2019-03-21&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pewsocialtrends.org%2F2019%2F03%2F21%2Fpublic-sees-an-america-in-decline-on-many-fronts%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAmerican+decline" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-axios_Republicans_and-62"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-axios_Republicans_and_62-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAllen2021" class="citation web cs1"><a href="/wiki/Michael_Allen_(journalist)" title="Michael Allen (journalist)">Allen, Mike</a> (January 14, 2021). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.axios.com/poll-america-falling-apart-4a13376f-f962-46e3-8e2c-174d396f25d1.html">"Republicans and Democrats agree — the country is falling apart"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Axios_(website)" title="Axios (website)">Axios</a></i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">January 29,</span> 2021</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Axios&rft.atitle=Republicans+and+Democrats+agree+%E2%80%94+the+country+is+falling+apart&rft.date=2021-01-14&rft.aulast=Allen&rft.aufirst=Mike&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.axios.com%2Fpoll-america-falling-apart-4a13376f-f962-46e3-8e2c-174d396f25d1.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAmerican+decline" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-futu_79_percent-63"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-futu_79_percent_63-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://futurism.com/the-byte/america-falling-apart">"79 percent of Americans say US is falling apart"</a>. <i>Futurism</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">January 29,</span> 2021</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Futurism&rft.atitle=79+percent+of+Americans+say+US+is+falling+apart&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Ffuturism.com%2Fthe-byte%2Famerica-falling-apart&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAmerican+decline" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ipso_Majority_of-64"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-ipso_Majority_of_64-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/unrest-capitol-election-certification-010621">"Majority of Americans now support removing Trump from office"</a>. <a href="/wiki/Ipsos" title="Ipsos">Ipsos</a>. January 13, 2021<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">February 2,</span> 2021</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Majority+of+Americans+now+support+removing+Trump+from+office&rft.pub=Ipsos&rft.date=2021-01-13&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipsos.com%2Fen-us%2Fnews-polls%2Funrest-capitol-election-certification-010621&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAmerican+decline" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-theh_4_in_5_say-65"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-theh_4_in_5_say_65-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFCastronuovo2021" class="citation web cs1">Castronuovo, Celine (January 14, 2021). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/534204-4-in-5-say-us-is-falling-apart-survey">"4 in 5 say US is falling apart: survey"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/The_Hill_(newspaper)" title="The Hill (newspaper)">The Hill</a></i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">February 2,</span> 2021</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+Hill&rft.atitle=4+in+5+say+US+is+falling+apart%3A+survey&rft.date=2021-01-14&rft.aulast=Castronuovo&rft.aufirst=Celine&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fhomenews%2Fnews%2F534204-4-in-5-say-us-is-falling-apart-survey&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAmerican+decline" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Further_reading">Further reading</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=American_decline&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Further reading"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1235681985">.mw-parser-output .side-box{margin:4px 0;box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #aaa;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em;background-color:var(--background-color-interactive-subtle,#f8f9fa);display:flow-root}.mw-parser-output .side-box-abovebelow,.mw-parser-output .side-box-text{padding:0.25em 0.9em}.mw-parser-output .side-box-image{padding:2px 0 2px 0.9em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .side-box-imageright{padding:2px 0.9em 2px 0;text-align:center}@media(min-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .side-box-flex{display:flex;align-items:center}.mw-parser-output .side-box-text{flex:1;min-width:0}}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .side-box{width:238px}.mw-parser-output .side-box-right{clear:right;float:right;margin-left:1em}.mw-parser-output .side-box-left{margin-right:1em}}</style><div class="side-box metadata side-box-right"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1126788409">.mw-parser-output .plainlist ol,.mw-parser-output .plainlist ul{line-height:inherit;list-style:none;margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .plainlist ol li,.mw-parser-output .plainlist ul li{margin-bottom:0}</style> <div class="side-box-abovebelow"> <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:The_Wikipedia_Library" title="Wikipedia:The Wikipedia Library">Library resources</a> about <br /> <b>American decline</b> <hr /></div> <div class="side-box-flex"> <div class="side-box-text plainlist"><ul><li><a class="external text" href="https://ftl.toolforge.org/cgi-bin/ftl?st=wp&su=American+decline">Resources in your library</a></li> <li><a class="external text" href="https://ftl.toolforge.org/cgi-bin/ftl?st=wp&su=American+decline&library=0CHOOSE0">Resources in other libraries</a></li> </ul></div></div> </div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAndrews2015" class="citation book cs1">Andrews, Charles (2015). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?id=NIERrgEACAAJ&q=hollow+colossus+andrews"><i>The Hollow Colossus</i></a>. Needle Press. p. 210. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780967990545" title="Special:BookSources/9780967990545"><bdi>9780967990545</bdi></a><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">April 3,</span> 2019</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Hollow+Colossus&rft.pages=210&rft.pub=Needle+Press&rft.date=2015&rft.isbn=9780967990545&rft.aulast=Andrews&rft.aufirst=Charles&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbooks.google.com%2Fbooks%3Fid%3DNIERrgEACAAJ%26q%3Dhollow%2Bcolossus%2Bandrews&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAmerican+decline" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl 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talk:International power"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:International_power" title="Special:EditPage/Template:International power"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Power_in_international_relations" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Power_(international_relations)" title="Power (international relations)">Power in international relations</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em"><a href="/wiki/Power_(social_and_political)" title="Power (social and political)">Types</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">Climate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_power" title="Economic power">Economic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_superpower" title="Energy superpower">Energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Food_power" title="Food power">Food</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hard_power" title="Hard power">Hard</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Maritime_power" title="Maritime power">Maritime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_power" title="National power">National</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_politics" title="Power politics">Politics</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Realpolitik" title="Realpolitik">Realpolitik</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sharp_power" title="Sharp power">Sharp</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Smart_power" title="Smart power">Smart</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Soft_power" title="Soft power">Soft</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Status</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Small_power" title="Small power">Small</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Middle_power" title="Middle power">Middle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Regional_power" title="Regional power">Regional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Emerging_power" title="Emerging power">Emerging</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Least_of_the_Great_Powers" class="mw-redirect" title="Least of the Great Powers">Least Great</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_power" title="Great power">Great</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Potential_superpower" title="Potential superpower">Potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Superpower" title="Superpower">Super</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em"><a href="/wiki/Geopolitics" title="Geopolitics">Geopolitics</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/American_Century" title="American Century">American</a> (<a href="/wiki/Pax_Americana" title="Pax Americana">Pax</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Asian_Century" title="Asian Century">Asian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Chinese_Century" title="Chinese Century">Chinese</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Indian_Century" title="Indian Century">Indian</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pacific_Century" title="Pacific Century">Pacific</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">History</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/List_of_ancient_great_powers" title="List of ancient great powers">List of ancient great powers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_medieval_great_powers" title="List of medieval great powers">List of medieval great powers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_modern_great_powers" title="List of modern great powers">List of modern great powers</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/International_relations_(1814%E2%80%931919)" title="International relations (1814–1919)">International relations (1814–1919)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Western_era" title="Post-Western era">Post-Western era</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">American decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Balance_of_power_(international_relations)" title="Balance of power (international relations)">Balance of power</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/European_balance_of_power" title="European balance of power">European</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deterrence_theory" title="Deterrence theory">Deterrence theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory" title="Hegemonic stability theory">Hegemonic stability theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multilateralism" title="Multilateralism">Multilateralism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Internationalism_(politics)" title="Internationalism (politics)">Internationalism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_(social_and_political)" title="Power (social and political)">Philosophy of power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Polarity_(international_relations)" title="Polarity (international relations)">Polarity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_projection" title="Power projection">Power projection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Power_transition_theory" title="Power transition theory">Power transition theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Second_Superpower" class="mw-redirect" title="Second Superpower">Second Superpower</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sphere_of_influence" title="Sphere of influence">Sphere of influence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Superpower_collapse" class="mw-redirect" title="Superpower collapse">Superpower collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Superpower_disengagement" class="mw-redirect" title="Superpower disengagement">Superpower disengagement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Studies</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Composite_Index_of_National_Capability" title="Composite Index of National Capability">Composite Index of National Capability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Comprehensive_National_Power" title="Comprehensive National Power">Comprehensive National Power</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Organizations_and_groups_by_region" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Regional_organization" title="Regional organization">Organizations and groups</a> by region</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/African_Union" title="African Union">African Union</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Union_for_the_Mediterranean" title="Union for the Mediterranean">Union for the Mediterranean</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa–Asia</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arab_League" title="Arab League">Arab League</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gulf_Cooperation_Council" title="Gulf Cooperation Council">Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organisation_of_Islamic_Cooperation" title="Organisation of Islamic Cooperation">Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Americas</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Association_of_Caribbean_States" title="Association of Caribbean States">Association of Caribbean States (ACS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Caribbean_Community" title="Caribbean Community">Caribbean Community (CARICOM)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Central_American_Integration_System" title="Central American Integration System">Central American Integration System (SICA)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Community_of_Latin_American_and_Caribbean_States" title="Community of Latin American and Caribbean States">Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mercosur" title="Mercosur">Mercosur</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NATO" title="NATO">North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organization_of_American_States" title="Organization of American States">Organization of American States (OAS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Union_of_South_American_Nations" title="Union of South American Nations">Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Asia</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Asia_Cooperation_Dialogue" title="Asia Cooperation Dialogue">Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Economic_Cooperation" title="Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation">Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/ASEAN" title="ASEAN">Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bay_of_Bengal_Initiative_for_Multi-Sectoral_Technical_and_Economic_Cooperation" title="Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation">Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Conference_on_Interaction_and_Confidence-Building_Measures_in_Asia" title="Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia">Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Organization" title="Economic Cooperation Organization">Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/South_Asian_Association_for_Regional_Cooperation" title="South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation">South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation" title="Shanghai Cooperation Organisation">Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Trilateral_Cooperation_Secretariat" title="Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat">Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Europe</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Organization_of_the_Black_Sea_Economic_Cooperation" title="Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation">Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Council_of_Europe" title="Council of Europe">Council of Europe (CoE)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/European_Political_Community" title="European Political Community">European Political Community (EPC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/European_Union" title="European Union">European Union (EU)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nordic_Council" title="Nordic Council">Nordic Council</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Visegr%C3%A1d_Group" title="Visegrád Group">Visegrád Group (V4)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Eurasia</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States" title="Commonwealth of Independent States">Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization" title="Collective Security Treaty Organization">Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Organization" title="Economic Cooperation Organization">Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union" title="Eurasian Economic Union">Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organization_of_Turkic_States" title="Organization of Turkic States">Organization of Turkic States</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">North America–Europe</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_Council" title="Arctic Council">Arctic Council</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NATO" title="NATO">North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa–Asia–Europe</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Union_for_the_Mediterranean" title="Union for the Mediterranean">Union for the Mediterranean</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Africa–South America</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/South_Atlantic_Peace_and_Cooperation_Zone" title="South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone">South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em">Oceania–Pacific</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Economic_Cooperation" title="Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation">Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/ANZUS" title="ANZUS">Australia–New Zealand–United States Security Treaty (ANZUS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Melanesian_Spearhead_Group" title="Melanesian Spearhead Group">Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pacific_Islands_Forum" title="Pacific Islands Forum">Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Polynesian_Leaders_Group" title="Polynesian Leaders Group">Polynesian Leaders Group (PLG)</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:9.5em;padding:0.35em 1.0em;line-height:1.25em;">Non–regional</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/BRICS" title="BRICS">Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa (BRICS)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations" title="Commonwealth of Nations">Commonwealth of Nations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Community_of_Portuguese_Speaking_Countries" class="mw-redirect" title="Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries">Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/E9_(countries)" title="E9 (countries)">E9</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G4_nations" title="G4 nations">G4</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G7" title="G7">G7</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Group_of_Eight" class="mw-redirect" title="Group of Eight">G8</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G8%2B5" title="G8+5">G8+5</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/G20" title="G20">G20</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Group_of_24" title="Group of 24">G24</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Group_of_77" title="Group of 77">G77</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/IBSA_Dialogue_Forum" title="IBSA Dialogue Forum">India–Brazil–South Africa Dialogue Forum (IBSA)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement" title="Non-Aligned Movement">Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/OECD" title="OECD">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Organisation_internationale_de_la_Francophonie" title="Organisation internationale de la Francophonie">Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Uniting_for_Consensus" title="Uniting for Consensus">Uniting for Consensus</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" 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