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Wells</div> <div id="sub-popup"> <div class="close"><a href="#">Close</a></div> <h3>Receive our posts via email:</h3> <form action="https://departmentofstatistics.activehosted.com/proc.php" method="post"> <p><label for="email">Your email:</label><span class="input"><input name="email" id="email" class="text" type="text" /></span><span class="clear"></span></p> <p class="submit"><input type="submit" value="Subscribe" /></p> <div style="display:none;"> <input type="hidden" name="u" value="3" /> <input type="hidden" name="f" value="3" /> <input type="hidden" name="s" /> <input type="hidden" name="c" value="0" /> <input type="hidden" name="m" value="0" /> <input type="hidden" name="act" value="sub" /> <input type="hidden" name="v" value="2" /> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div id="body"> <div id="main"> <div id="main-a"> <div class="post"> <div class="date">November 25, 2024</div> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/11/25/top-14-predictions-for-round-11-5/">Top 14 Predictions for Round 11</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Round 11</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">11.05</td> <td align="right">8.76</td> <td align="right">2.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">5.76</td> <td align="right">3.96</td> <td align="right">1.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Rochelais</td> <td align="right">4.93</td> <td align="right">4.85</td> <td align="right">0.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Toulon</td> <td align="right">4.58</td> <td align="right">5.32</td> <td align="right">-0.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Racing 92</td> <td align="right">2.00</td> <td align="right">2.75</td> <td align="right">-0.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Castres Olympique</td> <td align="right">1.25</td> <td align="right">-0.09</td> <td align="right">1.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bayonne</td> <td align="right">0.30</td> <td align="right">-1.69</td> <td align="right">2.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Montpellier</td> <td align="right">0.28</td> <td align="right">-0.96</td> <td align="right">1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Clermont</td> <td align="right">0.18</td> <td align="right">0.41</td> <td align="right">-0.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Francais</td> <td align="right">-0.33</td> <td align="right">1.86</td> <td align="right">-2.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Section Paloise</td> <td align="right">-0.71</td> <td align="right">1.38</td> <td align="right">-2.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Lyon</td> <td align="right">-1.10</td> <td align="right">-0.18</td> <td align="right">-0.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">USA Perpignan</td> <td align="right">-2.95</td> <td align="right">-0.66</td> <td align="right">-2.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Vannes</td> <td align="right">-9.50</td> <td align="right">-10.00</td> <td align="right">0.50</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td align="right">28 – 24</td> <td align="right">2.30</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Lyon vs. Clermont</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td align="right">22 – 30</td> <td align="right">6.70</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Montpellier vs. Section Paloise</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td align="right">30 – 3</td> <td align="right">5.80</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Stade Francais vs. Racing 92</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td align="right">40 – 24</td> <td align="right">3.10</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan</td> <td>Nov 25</td> <td align="right">41 – 9</td> <td align="right">19.30</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Toulon vs. Bayonne</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td align="right">39 – 19</td> <td align="right">9.90</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td align="right">29 – 37</td> <td align="right">-8.90</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Round 11</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">13.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Clermont vs. Castres Olympique</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Clermont</td> <td align="right">5.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">-1.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Section Paloise vs. Lyon</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Section Paloise</td> <td align="right">7.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Rochelais vs. Vannes</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Stade Rochelais</td> <td align="right">20.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>USA Perpignan vs. Toulon</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>USA Perpignan</td> <td align="right">0.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Bayonne vs. Stade Francais</td> <td>Dec 02</td> <td>Bayonne</td> <td align="right">7.50</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Top 14 Predictions for Round 11" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/11/25/top-14-predictions-for-round-11-5/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/11/25/top-14-predictions-for-round-11-5/#respond">Add a comment</a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <div class="date">November 4, 2024</div> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/11/04/top-14-predictions-for-round-10-5/">Top 14 Predictions for Round 10</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Round 10</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">10.58</td> <td align="right">8.76</td> <td align="right">1.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">5.82</td> <td align="right">3.96</td> <td align="right">1.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Rochelais</td> <td align="right">5.02</td> <td align="right">4.85</td> <td align="right">0.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Toulon</td> <td align="right">4.10</td> <td align="right">5.32</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Racing 92</td> <td align="right">2.52</td> <td align="right">2.75</td> <td align="right">-0.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Castres Olympique</td> <td align="right">1.15</td> <td align="right">-0.09</td> <td align="right">1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bayonne</td> <td align="right">0.73</td> <td align="right">-1.69</td> <td align="right">2.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Section Paloise</td> <td align="right">0.05</td> <td align="right">1.38</td> <td align="right">-1.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Montpellier</td> <td align="right">-0.48</td> <td align="right">-0.96</td> <td align="right">0.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Clermont</td> <td align="right">-0.49</td> <td align="right">0.41</td> <td align="right">-0.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Lyon</td> <td align="right">-0.51</td> <td align="right">-0.18</td> <td align="right">-0.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Francais</td> <td align="right">-0.86</td> <td align="right">1.86</td> <td align="right">-2.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">USA Perpignan</td> <td align="right">-2.43</td> <td align="right">-0.66</td> <td align="right">-1.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Vannes</td> <td align="right">-9.48</td> <td align="right">-10.00</td> <td align="right">0.50</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 63 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier</td> <td>Nov 03</td> <td align="right">30 – 26</td> <td align="right">7.90</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain</td> <td>Nov 04</td> <td align="right">12 – 8</td> <td align="right">-3.80</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles</td> <td>Nov 04</td> <td align="right">32 – 27</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Section Paloise vs. Racing 92</td> <td>Nov 04</td> <td align="right">23 – 33</td> <td align="right">5.50</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais</td> <td>Nov 04</td> <td align="right">35 – 18</td> <td align="right">10.80</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Toulon vs. Lyon</td> <td>Nov 04</td> <td align="right">21 – 10</td> <td align="right">11.10</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>USA Perpignan vs. Vannes</td> <td>Nov 04</td> <td align="right">32 – 13</td> <td align="right">12.60</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Round 10</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td>Castres Olympique</td> <td align="right">2.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Lyon vs. Clermont</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td>Lyon</td> <td align="right">6.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Montpellier vs. Section Paloise</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td>Montpellier</td> <td align="right">5.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Stade Francais vs. Racing 92</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td>Stade Francais</td> <td align="right">3.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan</td> <td>Nov 25</td> <td>Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">19.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Toulon vs. Bayonne</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td>Toulon</td> <td align="right">9.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles</td> <td>Nov 24</td> <td>Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">-8.80</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Top 14 Predictions for Round 10" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/11/04/top-14-predictions-for-round-10-5/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/11/04/top-14-predictions-for-round-10-5/#respond">Add a comment</a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <div class="date">October 29, 2024</div> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-7-3/">United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Week 7</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Leinster</td> <td align="right">15.01</td> <td align="right">12.09</td> <td align="right">2.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Glasgow</td> <td align="right">10.98</td> <td align="right">9.39</td> <td align="right">1.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bulls</td> <td align="right">8.21</td> <td align="right">8.83</td> <td align="right">-0.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Lions</td> <td align="right">6.08</td> <td align="right">6.73</td> <td align="right">-0.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stormers</td> <td align="right">4.63</td> <td align="right">6.75</td> <td align="right">-2.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Munster</td> <td align="right">4.55</td> <td align="right">9.28</td> <td align="right">-4.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Edinburgh</td> <td align="right">1.88</td> <td align="right">0.09</td> <td align="right">1.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Ulster</td> <td align="right">1.88</td> <td align="right">2.52</td> <td align="right">-0.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Cheetahs</td> <td align="right">0.80</td> <td align="right">0.80</td> <td align="right">0.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Benetton</td> <td align="right">-0.79</td> <td align="right">1.02</td> <td align="right">-1.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Connacht</td> <td align="right">-0.92</td> <td align="right">-0.76</td> <td align="right">-0.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sharks</td> <td align="right">-2.03</td> <td align="right">-2.94</td> <td align="right">0.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Ospreys</td> <td align="right">-3.68</td> <td align="right">-2.51</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Cardiff Rugby</td> <td align="right">-5.15</td> <td align="right">-2.55</td> <td align="right">-2.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Southern Kings</td> <td align="right">-6.52</td> <td align="right">-6.52</td> <td align="right">0.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Scarlets</td> <td align="right">-6.78</td> <td align="right">-10.65</td> <td align="right">3.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Dragons</td> <td align="right">-14.01</td> <td align="right">-15.41</td> <td align="right">1.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Zebre</td> <td align="right">-14.12</td> <td align="right">-16.17</td> <td align="right">2.10</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Benetton vs. Bulls</td> <td>Oct 26</td> <td align="right">15 – 17</td> <td align="right">-3.90</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Scarlets vs. Zebre</td> <td>Oct 26</td> <td align="right">30 – 8</td> <td align="right">11.20</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Stormers vs. Glasgow</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">17 – 28</td> <td align="right">1.00</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Ospreys vs. Edinburgh</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">22 – 13</td> <td align="right">-1.70</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Sharks vs. Munster</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">41 – 24</td> <td align="right">-4.00</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Leinster vs. Lions</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">24 – 6</td> <td align="right">13.40</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">21 – 19</td> <td align="right">-2.50</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">8</td> <td>Connacht vs. Dragons</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">31 – 7</td> <td align="right">17.10</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Week 7</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Glasgow vs. Scarlets</td> <td>Nov 30</td> <td>Glasgow</td> <td align="right">23.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Ulster vs. Leinster</td> <td>Nov 30</td> <td>Leinster</td> <td align="right">-10.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Sharks vs. Stormers</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Stormers</td> <td align="right">-4.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Cardiff Rugby</td> <td align="right">11.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Connacht vs. Bulls</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Bulls</td> <td align="right">-3.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Edinburgh vs. Benetton</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Edinburgh</td> <td align="right">8.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Munster vs. Lions</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Munster</td> <td align="right">4.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">8</td> <td>Zebre vs. Ospreys</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Ospreys</td> <td align="right">-4.90</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-7-3/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-7-3/#respond">Add a comment</a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/top-14-predictions-for-round-9-5/">Top 14 Predictions for Round 9</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Round 9</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">10.94</td> <td align="right">8.76</td> <td align="right">2.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">6.14</td> <td align="right">3.96</td> <td align="right">2.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Rochelais</td> <td align="right">4.69</td> <td align="right">4.85</td> <td align="right">-0.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Toulon</td> <td align="right">4.10</td> <td align="right">5.32</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Racing 92</td> <td align="right">1.91</td> <td align="right">2.75</td> <td align="right">-0.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Castres Olympique</td> <td align="right">1.39</td> <td align="right">-0.09</td> <td align="right">1.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Section Paloise</td> <td align="right">0.65</td> <td align="right">1.38</td> <td align="right">-0.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bayonne</td> <td align="right">0.38</td> <td align="right">-1.69</td> <td align="right">2.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Francais</td> <td align="right">-0.49</td> <td align="right">1.86</td> <td align="right">-2.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Lyon</td> <td align="right">-0.54</td> <td align="right">-0.18</td> <td align="right">-0.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Montpellier</td> <td align="right">-0.70</td> <td align="right">-0.96</td> <td align="right">0.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Clermont</td> <td align="right">-0.83</td> <td align="right">0.41</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">USA Perpignan</td> <td align="right">-2.79</td> <td align="right">-0.66</td> <td align="right">-2.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Vannes</td> <td align="right">-9.12</td> <td align="right">-10.00</td> <td align="right">0.90</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 56 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">19 – 6</td> <td align="right">11.90</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Lyon vs. Bayonne</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">38 – 49</td> <td align="right">6.90</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">16 – 0</td> <td align="right">0.30</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">30 – 23</td> <td align="right">11.70</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Francais vs. Clermont</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">36 – 6</td> <td align="right">6.00</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Vannes vs. Castres Olympique</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">34 – 28</td> <td align="right">-3.90</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon</td> <td>Oct 28</td> <td align="right">57 – 5</td> <td align="right">10.30</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Round 9</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain</td> <td>Nov 02</td> <td>Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">-3.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier</td> <td>Nov 02</td> <td>Castres Olympique</td> <td align="right">7.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles</td> <td>Nov 02</td> <td>Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Section Paloise vs. Racing 92</td> <td>Nov 02</td> <td>Section Paloise</td> <td align="right">5.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais</td> <td>Nov 02</td> <td>Stade Rochelais</td> <td align="right">10.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Toulon vs. Lyon</td> <td>Nov 02</td> <td>Toulon</td> <td align="right">11.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>USA Perpignan vs. Vannes</td> <td>Nov 02</td> <td>USA Perpignan</td> <td align="right">12.60</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Top 14 Predictions for Round 9" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/top-14-predictions-for-round-9-5/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/top-14-predictions-for-round-9-5/#comments">View comments (1)</a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-7-7/">Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Round 7</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bath</td> <td align="right">9.48</td> <td align="right">5.55</td> <td align="right">3.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Saracens</td> <td align="right">8.15</td> <td align="right">9.68</td> <td align="right">-1.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bristol</td> <td align="right">7.94</td> <td align="right">9.58</td> <td align="right">-1.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Leicester Tigers</td> <td align="right">5.70</td> <td align="right">3.27</td> <td align="right">2.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Northampton Saints</td> <td align="right">5.63</td> <td align="right">7.50</td> <td align="right">-1.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Harlequins</td> <td align="right">2.01</td> <td align="right">-2.73</td> <td align="right">4.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sale Sharks</td> <td align="right">-1.28</td> <td align="right">4.73</td> <td align="right">-6.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Exeter Chiefs</td> <td align="right">-3.58</td> <td align="right">1.23</td> <td align="right">-4.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Gloucester</td> <td align="right">-4.20</td> <td align="right">-9.04</td> <td align="right">4.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Newcastle Falcons</td> <td align="right">-19.09</td> <td align="right">-19.02</td> <td align="right">-0.10</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bristol vs. Northampton Saints</td> <td>Oct 26</td> <td align="right">31 – 23</td> <td align="right">9.00</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">36 – 7</td> <td align="right">19.50</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Bath vs. Sale Sharks</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">40 – 13</td> <td align="right">14.80</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td align="right">29 – 32</td> <td align="right">11.90</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins</td> <td>Oct 28</td> <td align="right">19 – 36</td> <td align="right">5.40</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Round 7</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Harlequins vs. Bristol</td> <td>Nov 30</td> <td>Harlequins</td> <td align="right">0.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens</td> <td>Nov 30</td> <td>Saracens</td> <td align="right">-20.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Northampton Saints</td> <td align="right">16.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs</td> <td>Dec 01</td> <td>Bath</td> <td align="right">19.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers</td> <td>Dec 02</td> <td>Leicester Tigers</td> <td align="right">-0.50</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-7-7/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-7-7/#respond">Add a comment</a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <div class="date">October 22, 2024</div> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-6-3/">United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Week 6</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Leinster</td> <td align="right">14.50</td> <td align="right">12.09</td> <td align="right">2.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Glasgow</td> <td align="right">10.07</td> <td align="right">9.39</td> <td align="right">0.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bulls</td> <td align="right">7.25</td> <td align="right">8.83</td> <td align="right">-1.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Lions</td> <td align="right">6.58</td> <td align="right">6.73</td> <td align="right">-0.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Munster</td> <td align="right">6.01</td> <td align="right">9.28</td> <td align="right">-3.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stormers</td> <td align="right">5.53</td> <td align="right">6.75</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Edinburgh</td> <td align="right">2.71</td> <td align="right">0.09</td> <td align="right">2.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Ulster</td> <td align="right">2.38</td> <td align="right">2.52</td> <td align="right">-0.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Cheetahs</td> <td align="right">0.80</td> <td align="right">0.80</td> <td align="right">0.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Benetton</td> <td align="right">-1.00</td> <td align="right">1.02</td> <td align="right">-2.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Connacht</td> <td align="right">-1.68</td> <td align="right">-0.76</td> <td align="right">-0.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sharks</td> <td align="right">-3.49</td> <td align="right">-2.94</td> <td align="right">-0.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Ospreys</td> <td align="right">-4.51</td> <td align="right">-2.51</td> <td align="right">-2.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Cardiff Rugby</td> <td align="right">-5.65</td> <td align="right">-2.55</td> <td align="right">-3.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Scarlets</td> <td align="right">-6.44</td> <td align="right">-10.65</td> <td align="right">4.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Southern Kings</td> <td align="right">-6.52</td> <td align="right">-6.52</td> <td align="right">0.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Dragons</td> <td align="right">-13.25</td> <td align="right">-15.41</td> <td align="right">2.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Zebre</td> <td align="right">-13.29</td> <td align="right">-16.17</td> <td align="right">2.90</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Scarlets vs. Bulls</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">23 – 2</td> <td align="right">-12.50</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Ulster vs. Ospreys</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">36 – 12</td> <td align="right">10.40</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Zebre vs. Lions</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">9 – 10</td> <td align="right">-16.60</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Sharks vs. Glasgow</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">28 – 24</td> <td align="right">-10.20</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stormers vs. Munster</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">34 – 19</td> <td align="right">3.20</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">27 – 8</td> <td align="right">12.40</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Connacht vs. Leinster</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">12 – 33</td> <td align="right">-11.60</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">8</td> <td>Dragons vs. Benetton</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">21 – 31</td> <td align="right">-5.80</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Week 6</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Benetton vs. Bulls</td> <td>Oct 26</td> <td>Bulls</td> <td align="right">-2.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Scarlets vs. Zebre</td> <td>Oct 26</td> <td>Scarlets</td> <td align="right">12.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Stormers vs. Glasgow</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Stormers</td> <td align="right">1.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Ospreys vs. Edinburgh</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Edinburgh</td> <td align="right">-1.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Sharks vs. Munster</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Munster</td> <td align="right">-4.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Leinster vs. Lions</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Leinster</td> <td align="right">13.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Ulster</td> <td align="right">-2.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">8</td> <td>Connacht vs. Dragons</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Connacht</td> <td align="right">17.10</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-6-3/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-6-3/#comments">View comments (2)</a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/top-14-predictions-for-round-8-5/">Top 14 Predictions for Round 8</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Round 8</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">9.60</td> <td align="right">8.76</td> <td align="right">0.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">6.12</td> <td align="right">3.96</td> <td align="right">2.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Toulon</td> <td align="right">5.40</td> <td align="right">5.32</td> <td align="right">0.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Rochelais</td> <td align="right">5.27</td> <td align="right">4.85</td> <td align="right">0.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Racing 92</td> <td align="right">2.19</td> <td align="right">2.75</td> <td align="right">-0.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Castres Olympique</td> <td align="right">1.77</td> <td align="right">-0.09</td> <td align="right">1.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Section Paloise</td> <td align="right">0.63</td> <td align="right">1.38</td> <td align="right">-0.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Clermont</td> <td align="right">0.11</td> <td align="right">0.41</td> <td align="right">-0.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Lyon</td> <td align="right">0.10</td> <td align="right">-0.18</td> <td align="right">0.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bayonne</td> <td align="right">-0.31</td> <td align="right">-1.69</td> <td align="right">1.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Montpellier</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> <td align="right">-0.96</td> <td align="right">-0.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stade Francais</td> <td align="right">-1.34</td> <td align="right">1.86</td> <td align="right">-3.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">USA Perpignan</td> <td align="right">-3.01</td> <td align="right">-0.66</td> <td align="right">-2.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Vannes</td> <td align="right">-9.59</td> <td align="right">-10.00</td> <td align="right">0.40</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 49 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.7%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bayonne vs. Racing 92</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">32 – 15</td> <td align="right">2.90</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">35 – 13</td> <td align="right">8.50</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Clermont vs. Vannes</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">55 – 33</td> <td align="right">15.40</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">14 – 22</td> <td align="right">-1.70</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles</td> <td>Oct 21</td> <td align="right">32 – 22</td> <td align="right">5.10</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Toulon vs. Montpellier</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">30 – 17</td> <td align="right">13.10</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>USA Perpignan vs. Lyon</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">29 – 26</td> <td align="right">3.40</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Round 8</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Bordeaux Begles</td> <td align="right">11.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Lyon vs. Bayonne</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Lyon</td> <td align="right">6.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Montpellier</td> <td align="right">0.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Racing 92</td> <td align="right">11.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stade Francais vs. Clermont</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Stade Francais</td> <td align="right">6.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Vannes vs. Castres Olympique</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Castres Olympique</td> <td align="right">-3.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon</td> <td>Oct 28</td> <td>Stade Toulousain</td> <td align="right">10.30</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Top 14 Predictions for Round 8" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/top-14-predictions-for-round-8-5/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/top-14-predictions-for-round-8-5/#comments">View comments (1)</a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-6-6/">Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Round 6</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Saracens</td> <td align="right">9.64</td> <td align="right">9.68</td> <td align="right">-0.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bath</td> <td align="right">8.26</td> <td align="right">5.55</td> <td align="right">2.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bristol</td> <td align="right">8.04</td> <td align="right">9.58</td> <td align="right">-1.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Northampton Saints</td> <td align="right">5.53</td> <td align="right">7.50</td> <td align="right">-2.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Leicester Tigers</td> <td align="right">4.20</td> <td align="right">3.27</td> <td align="right">0.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sale Sharks</td> <td align="right">-0.07</td> <td align="right">4.73</td> <td align="right">-4.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Harlequins</td> <td align="right">-0.23</td> <td align="right">-2.73</td> <td align="right">2.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Exeter Chiefs</td> <td align="right">-1.34</td> <td align="right">1.23</td> <td align="right">-2.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Gloucester</td> <td align="right">-5.15</td> <td align="right">-9.04</td> <td align="right">3.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Newcastle Falcons</td> <td align="right">-18.14</td> <td align="right">-19.02</td> <td align="right">0.90</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 25 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">24 – 18</td> <td align="right">-14.40</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">47 – 17</td> <td align="right">7.60</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Bristol vs. Saracens</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">35 – 37</td> <td align="right">6.60</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Harlequins vs. Bath</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td align="right">24 – 26</td> <td align="right">-2.00</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester</td> <td>Oct 21</td> <td align="right">29 – 26</td> <td align="right">19.10</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Round 6</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bristol vs. Northampton Saints</td> <td>Oct 26</td> <td>Bristol</td> <td align="right">9.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Gloucester</td> <td align="right">19.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Bath vs. Sale Sharks</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Bath</td> <td align="right">14.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers</td> <td>Oct 27</td> <td>Saracens</td> <td align="right">11.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins</td> <td>Oct 28</td> <td>Exeter Chiefs</td> <td align="right">5.40</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-6-6/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/rugby-premiership-predictions-for-round-6-6/#respond"></a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/bunnings-npc-predictions-for-the-final-3/">Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for the Final</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Wellington</td> <td align="right">7.80</td> <td align="right">10.63</td> <td align="right">-2.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bay of Plenty</td> <td align="right">7.23</td> <td align="right">3.52</td> <td align="right">3.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Waikato</td> <td align="right">6.23</td> <td align="right">5.30</td> <td align="right">0.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Taranaki</td> <td align="right">5.84</td> <td align="right">5.21</td> <td align="right">0.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Canterbury</td> <td align="right">4.86</td> <td align="right">6.01</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Tasman</td> <td align="right">3.81</td> <td align="right">2.17</td> <td align="right">1.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">North Harbour</td> <td align="right">1.80</td> <td align="right">3.06</td> <td align="right">-1.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Hawke’s Bay</td> <td align="right">1.51</td> <td align="right">6.09</td> <td align="right">-4.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Auckland</td> <td align="right">0.39</td> <td align="right">3.00</td> <td align="right">-2.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Counties Manukau</td> <td align="right">-0.70</td> <td align="right">-5.22</td> <td align="right">4.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Otago</td> <td align="right">-1.51</td> <td align="right">-3.26</td> <td align="right">1.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Northland</td> <td align="right">-7.36</td> <td align="right">-4.29</td> <td align="right">-3.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Southland</td> <td align="right">-7.76</td> <td align="right">-10.05</td> <td align="right">2.30</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Manawatu</td> <td align="right">-18.66</td> <td align="right">-18.73</td> <td align="right">0.10</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 76 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.7%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">32 – 20</td> <td align="right">3.30</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Wellington vs. Waikato</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td align="right">29 – 24</td> <td align="right">4.40</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for the Final</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty</td> <td>Oct 26</td> <td>Wellington</td> <td align="right">3.60</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/bunnings-npc-predictions-for-the-final-3/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/bunnings-npc-predictions-for-the-final-3/#respond"></a></div> </div> <div class="post"> <div class="date">October 15, 2024</div> <h2 class="title"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/15/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-5-4/">United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5</a></h2> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/" title="Posts by David Scott" class="author url fn" rel="author">David Scott</a></div> <div class="content"> <h2>Team Ratings for Week 5</h2> <p>The basic method is described on my Department <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott">home page</a>.<br /> Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Current Rating</th> <th>Rating at Season Start</th> <th>Difference</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Leinster</td> <td align="right">13.47</td> <td align="right">12.09</td> <td align="right">1.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Glasgow</td> <td align="right">11.12</td> <td align="right">9.39</td> <td align="right">1.70</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Bulls</td> <td align="right">9.43</td> <td align="right">8.83</td> <td align="right">0.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Lions</td> <td align="right">7.72</td> <td align="right">6.73</td> <td align="right">1.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Munster</td> <td align="right">6.91</td> <td align="right">9.28</td> <td align="right">-2.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Stormers</td> <td align="right">4.64</td> <td align="right">6.75</td> <td align="right">-2.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Edinburgh</td> <td align="right">1.98</td> <td align="right">0.09</td> <td align="right">1.90</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Ulster</td> <td align="right">1.37</td> <td align="right">2.52</td> <td align="right">-1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Cheetahs</td> <td align="right">0.80</td> <td align="right">0.80</td> <td align="right">0.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Connacht</td> <td align="right">-0.65</td> <td align="right">-0.76</td> <td align="right">0.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Benetton</td> <td align="right">-1.46</td> <td align="right">1.02</td> <td align="right">-2.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Ospreys</td> <td align="right">-3.50</td> <td align="right">-2.51</td> <td align="right">-1.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sharks</td> <td align="right">-4.54</td> <td align="right">-2.94</td> <td align="right">-1.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Cardiff Rugby</td> <td align="right">-4.92</td> <td align="right">-2.55</td> <td align="right">-2.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Southern Kings</td> <td align="right">-6.52</td> <td align="right">-6.52</td> <td align="right">0.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Scarlets</td> <td align="right">-8.62</td> <td align="right">-10.65</td> <td align="right">2.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Dragons</td> <td align="right">-12.79</td> <td align="right">-15.41</td> <td align="right">2.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Zebre</td> <td align="right">-14.43</td> <td align="right">-16.17</td> <td align="right">1.70</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Performance So Far</h2> <p>So far there have been 30 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.<br /> Here are the predictions for last week’s games.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Score</th> <th>Prediction</th> <th>Correct</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Glasgow vs. Zebre</td> <td>Oct 12</td> <td align="right">33 – 3</td> <td align="right">31.30</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Benetton vs. Sharks</td> <td>Oct 13</td> <td align="right">38 – 10</td> <td align="right">5.50</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets</td> <td>Oct 13</td> <td align="right">19 – 25</td> <td align="right">8.30</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Edinburgh vs. Stormers</td> <td>Oct 13</td> <td align="right">38 – 7</td> <td align="right">-1.40</td> <td>FALSE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Leinster vs. Munster</td> <td>Oct 13</td> <td align="right">26 – 12</td> <td align="right">7.70</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Ospreys vs. Bulls</td> <td>Oct 13</td> <td align="right">19 – 29</td> <td align="right">-6.70</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Ulster vs. Connacht</td> <td>Oct 13</td> <td align="right">32 – 27</td> <td align="right">4.40</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">8</td> <td>Dragons vs. Lions</td> <td>Oct 13</td> <td align="right">19 – 23</td> <td align="right">-16.90</td> <td>TRUE</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <h2>Predictions for Week 5</h2> <p>Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.</p> <table border="1" rules="all"> <tbody> <tr> <th></th> <th>Game</th> <th>Date</th> <th>Winner</th> <th>Prediction</th> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">1</td> <td>Scarlets vs. Bulls</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td>Bulls</td> <td align="right">-12.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">2</td> <td>Ulster vs. Ospreys</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td>Ulster</td> <td align="right">10.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">3</td> <td>Zebre vs. Lions</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td>Lions</td> <td align="right">-16.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">4</td> <td>Sharks vs. Glasgow</td> <td>Oct 19</td> <td>Glasgow</td> <td align="right">-10.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">5</td> <td>Stormers vs. Munster</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td>Stormers</td> <td align="right">3.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">6</td> <td>Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td>Edinburgh</td> <td align="right">12.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">7</td> <td>Connacht vs. Leinster</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td>Leinster</td> <td align="right">-11.60</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">8</td> <td>Dragons vs. Benetton</td> <td>Oct 20</td> <td>Benetton</td> <td align="right">-5.80</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/15/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-5-4/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="postlinks"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/15/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-5-4/#respond"></a></div> </div> <div class="navigation"> <div class="navleft"></div> <div class="navright"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/page/2/" >Earlier posts »</a></div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="sidebar"> <div id="search-3" class="section widget_search"><div class="search"> <form method="get" action="https://www.statschat.org.nz"> <div> <div class="text"><input name="s" class="text" type="text" /></div> <input class="submit" type="submit" value="Search" /> </div> </form> </div></div><div id="statschat-recent-comments-3" class="section widget_recent_comments"><h3 class="sectitle">Recent comments</h3><ul><li><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/top-14-predictions-for-round-9-5/#comment-195289">Usike Smokie Kayokasi</a>: Thanks for predictions which is very helpful for my betting.. I'm a great follower of rugby union Thanks</li><li><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-6-3/#comment-195276">David Scott</a>: Unfortunately no. The main problem is obtaining a complete set of results for international games. I do this for the…</li><li><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/22/top-14-predictions-for-round-8-5/#comment-195275">Keith Thiele</a>: Thanks for your input.</li></ul></div><div id="statschat_popular_posts-3" class="section widget_popular_posts"><h3 class="sectitle">Popular posts</h3><ul><li><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/top-14-predictions-for-round-9-5/" title="Top 14 Predictions for Round 9">Top 14 Predictions for Round 9</a></li><li><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/11/04/top-14-predictions-for-round-10-5/" title="Top 14 Predictions for Round 10">Top 14 Predictions for Round 10</a></li><li><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2024/10/29/united-rugby-championship-predictions-for-week-7-3/" title="United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7">United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7</a></li></ul></div> <div id="recent-posts-2" class="section widget_recent_entries"> <h3 class="sectitle">Latest posts</h3> <ul> <li> <a 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