Michael Tomasky's blog | Comment is free

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} // ]]> </script> <ul id="blog-posts-excerpts"> <li class="first date-posted "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <p class="date"> Wednesday 29 July 2009 </p> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/congress-healthcare-democrats" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky dissects the House Democrats deal on healthcare reform}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Ross caves in</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>So just as I was posting that long piece, some Blue Dogs on the House Energy and Commerce Committee were <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25570.html">shaking hands</a> with chairman Henry Waxman on a provisional deal:</p><blockquote><p>As a result of the deal, party leaders have agreed to put off a House vote until the fall, giving members more time to digest the legislation — and opponents more time to attack it. </p><p>The Blue Dogs also succeeded in cutting $100 billion from the overall cost of the bill, bringing the total price tag under $1 trillion. The legislation will now exempt small businesses with a payroll less than $500,000 from paying for any government-sponsored health coverage - double the $250,000 in the initial draft. Doctors and other health care providers would also be allowed to negotiate their payment rates with the government-sponsored health care arm. </p><p>The new version of the bill also has a breakthrough on the concept of health care "co-ops," seen by some as an alternative to a public plan. States would be allowed to create co-ops for residents to buy private insurance. But the Waxman-Ross deal will also keep the "public option" of government-sponsored health care. </p><p>The deal clears the way for the committee to restart its consideration of the bill, but only four of the seven Blue Dogs will vote for it in committee - Ross, Tennessee Rep. Bart Gordon, Indiana Rep. Baron Hill and Ohio Rep. Zack Space. But that should be enough to get the bill out of committee. </p></blockquote><p>The three Blue Dogs who did not sign on to the deal are John Barrow of Georgia, Charlie Melancon of Louisiana, and Jim Matheson of Utah.</p><p>You hear the names of those three states, and you think, oh well, of course, no wonder, I understand, they can't make any deals with any California liberals. But this is what I was trying to get at in that long post. Let's take a closer look.</p><p>Melancon ran unopposed last time. McCain won his district big, for sure, but nothing close to 100-0. He had an MVM in my earlier post of +76!</p><p>Matheson had an MVM of only +11. Still, he won his last race 63-35. He's not exactly running scared.</p><p>Barrow wasn't even on my list, because he represents a district that Obama carried -- by nine points, while Barrow eked out a nail-biting 66-34 win. His district is 40% black, which gives him a pretty nice built in advantage over any Republican. The GOP really tried to take him out in 2006. They didn't succeed, so in 2008 he rolled.</p><p>I understand moderate Dems wanting to be able to go back to the voters and say "I helped lower the price tag" of the bill. But I have a pretty hard time understanding why people who ran unopposed, or won two-to-one, couldn't sign on even to a watered-down bill. Why are they even Democrats?</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/congress-healthcare-democrats?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky dissects the House Democrats deal on healthcare reform}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350970775 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">22.05 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="linktext media-below"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/video/2009/jul/29/obama-american-born-citizen" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Tomasky talk video: Michael Tomasky watches the birthers video}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text" title="Video will start automatically on this page">Tomasky talk: Huffington Post asks Republicans if Obama<br/> is American-born</a> </h3> </div> <script id="omnitureVideoData_31122359001" type="text/javascript"> function getOmnitureAccount_31122359001(){ return "guardiangu-blogs,guardiangu-network,guardiangu-commentisfree,guardiandev2"; } function getOmnitureData_31122359001() { var omniture = new Object(); omniture.prop43="Video"; omniture.prop44="Tomasky talk video: Michael Tomasky watches the \'birthers\' video"; omniture.prop45="Michael Tomasky\'s blog:other:1012987"; omniture.eVar43="Video"; omniture.eVar44="Tomasky talk video: Michael Tomasky watches the \'birthers\' video"; omniture.eVar45="Michael Tomasky\'s blog:other:1012987"; return omniture; } </script> <div class="hide-on-popup"> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839js_/http://static.guim.co.uk/static/77051/common/scripts/eolas_workaround.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> (function() { var flashVars = "playerID=26396137001&@videoPlayer=31122359001&domain=embed&autoStart=false&adServerURL=http%3A%2F%2Fads.guardian.co.uk%2Fhtml.ng%2Fspacedesc%3Dvideo%26system%3Dvideo%26title%3D31122359001%26site%3DCommentisfree%26url%3D%25252Fcommentisfree%25252Fmichaeltomasky%25252Fvideo%25252F2009%25252Fjul%25252F29%25252Fobama-american-born-citizen%26comfolder%3DUSElections%26keywords%3DBarack%252BObama%252B%2528News%2529%252CHuffington%252BPost%252CUS%252Bnews%252CWorld%252Bnews%252CDemocrats%252CRepublicans%26bandwidth%3Dbroadband%26tile%3D4028210"; insertVideoObject(460, 370, "http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9/26396137001?isVid=1&isUI=1&publisherID=281851582", flashVars) }) (); </script> </div> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="trailtext"> <p><strong>Michael Tomasky </strong>watches the 'birthers' video from Huffington Post</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/video/2009/jul/29/obama-american-born-citizen?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Tomasky talk video: Michael Tomasky watches the birthers video}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350967168 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">20.47 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/healthcare-congressional-budget-office-cost" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on the Congressional Budget Offices dubious record on h}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Rule to live by: always doubt experts</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>The Congressional Budget Office is the nonpartisan (genuinely, as far as folks can tell) research group you've probably been hearing about that "scores" proposals out of Congress for their cost-effectiveness and so on. Twice in recent weeks, the CBO has dealt Democratic healthcare bills a blow by scoring the bills as either not containing enough costs, not saving the money they purported to save, not being revenue-neutral, what have you.<br/> <br/>When the CBO speaks, everyone -- I mean everyone -- bows down in reverence. This is based, of course, on the belief that the CBO doesn't get anything wrong. So this got me wondering: well, is that so? What's the CBO's actual track record?<br/> <br/>I was just getting set to dig into some research on this question when lo and behold, Roll Call published <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.rollcall.com/news/37284-1.html">this column</a> by one Bruce Vladek, a former federal healthcare administrator now in the private sector:</p><blockquote><p>Put most simply, the CBO's track record in predicting the effects of health legislation is abysmal. Over the last two decades, the CBO has routinely overestimated the costs of expanded government health care benefits and underestimated the savings from program changes designed to reduce expenditures. </p><p>Most recently, it overestimated the five-year cost of Medicare Part D — the prescription drug benefit -— by more than 35%. Even more dramatically, the CBO's estimates of the Medicare savings from the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 underestimated the impact, on average, by a full 100%. That's right: In the BBA's first three years, Medicare spending fell fully twice as fast as the CBO had projected.</p></blockquote><p>I remember that Medicare Part D thing well. I will confess that if I recall correctly I cited that figure, and I remember when the real numbers came in lower. Color me chastened.<br/> <br/>Vladek explains that the errors are the result of neither hidden ideology nor incompetence, just projections based on incomplete information. CBO experts fill in the holes the best they can and make a lot of assumptions about how such-and-such a reform will change certain actors' behavior and try to put a price tag on that.<br/> <br/>Fair enough. But isn't that all rather imprecise? Quite obviously, according to Vladek's findings, yes. <br/> <br/>So why is the CBO regarded as oracular? Because it just is, that's why! Because political reporters don't bother to stop and think, hmm, what's the CBO's track record? Finding the answer to that question would interfere with a good story line, which is "even fair-minded, non-wing-nut research group accuses Dems of fiscal irresponsibility." Who wants to get in the way of that?<br/> <br/>And finally: shouldn't Vladek's findings be bigger news than one Roll Call op-ed column? Shouldn't CBO's spotty record be a front-page story in the New York Times? Times reporters have surely pegged news stories to the CBO's findings, and this <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/20/opinion/20mon1.html?_r=1">Times editorial</a>, for example, takes CBO warnings at face value. <br/> <br/>There's no history in this town sometimes, only an excitable present. Amazing.</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/healthcare-congressional-budget-office-cost?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on the Congressional Budget Offices dubious record on h}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350968655 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">20.31 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/blue-dog-democrats" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Many Democrats representing conservatives districts are safer than they }&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">How nervous should those Blue Dogs be?</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>OK, as promised the other day, I've run some numbers about the Democratic Blue Dogs in the House of Representatives, and they're quite interesting. Here's the deal. This is a long post, but it's got lots of actual new information, and no difficult-to-discern irony.<br/> <br/>Exactly 49 Democratic House members represent districts where John McCain beat Barack Obama on the presidential level. These 49 don't match exactly with the Blue Dogs. For example, Tennessee's Jim Cooper is a leading Blue Dog. Obama won his district (Nashville) by 13 points, and he beat his opponent 65-31%. But still he thinks he's vulnerable. Whatever. The point is, most Blue Dogs represent red districts, as defined by the presidential outcome in that district.</p><p>So what I'm trying to get at here is: how vulnerable, really, are some of these Blue Dogs? To hear them talk sometimes, you'd think if they depart one iota from a basically conservative agenda, the voters will toss them out. I'm not insensitive to that prospect. As we will see, some Blue Dogs have very legitimate concerns. And obviously, one who represents a mostly rural district can't establish a pattern of voting like Maxine Waters. Everybody gets this.<br/> <br/>But a lot of them play that violin way too often, confident that big-city reporters in Washington and New York will just accept that their district is full of reactionaries and that they have to pander to that reaction constantly to stay in office. So I went to the numbers to try to gauge how vulnerable they really are.</p><p>I used this extremely <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/district_08">handy CQ website </a>breaking presidential results down by House district. Here's my methodology:</p><p>1. I made a list of the 49 red-district House Democrats.<br/>2. I recorded their margins of victory.<br/>3. I recorded John McCain's margin in all 49 districts.<br/>4. I matched result 2 against result 3 to get something I call the MVM -- the Margin Versus McCain. For example, if Democrat Ms. Byron beat Republican Mr. Shelley by 10 points, and McCain won that district by 20 points, Ms. Byron's MVM is -10. If Democrat Mr. Jagger beat Republican Mr. Richards by 25 points, and McCain won that district by 10 points, Mr. Jagger's MVM is +15.</p><p>This MVM is an important number because it matches the Democrat's personal vote-getting strength (his or her victory margin) against the intensity of the general Republican inclination of the district (McCain's margin over Obama). </p><p>That is a key number. I guarantee you it's how politicians think. Every one of these 49 Democrats knows precisely how Republican his or her district is. The same is true of the 34 Republicans who won in districts where Obama beat McCain.<br/> <br/>I trust you can see why it matters. If I represent a district that I won handily and McCain squeaked by, that's a very different thing from my squeaking by in a district McCain won handily, and it dictates different voting behavior by me once I'm in Congress, if I want to stay in office. I'd be a lot more afraid, say, to support a public option if I had a low or negative MVM.</p><p>OK, all that said: Below the fold, you can see the list of all 49 red-district House Democrats. You see their state and district number; name; margin over their opponent; McCain's margin over Obama in the district; and the House member's MVM figure. Click through and take a look.<br/> <a class="continue-reading" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/blue-dog-democrats">Continue reading...</a></p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/blue-dog-democrats?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Many Democrats representing conservatives districts are safer than they }&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350964741 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">18.29 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/congress-healthcare" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky: Next in the Senate}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">What's next in the Senate?</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>So, we have a bill from Teddy Kennedy's committee, as we've had for a while now, that includes an employer mandate (forcing employers of a certain size to purchase insurance for employees) and a public option.</p><p>And now we have, or are about to get, a bill from Max Baucus' committee with neither of those features. The two bills must be reconciled somehow within the Senate, as the Politico notes this morning in <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25541_Page2.html">a piece</a> on the stake for Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, so that there's such a thing as one Senate bill. Then it, in turn, must be reconciled with the House bill. </p><p>Within the Senate, it seems quite unlikely, of course, that the final bill will resemble the more liberal of the two on offer. That just isn't how things work. It'll more closely resemble the Baucus bill.</p><p>So at that point, we'll be down to a bill that will increase regulation of insurance companies and expand coverage a bit but be nowhere near universal. </p><p>And even <em>that </em>bill might not pass the Senate. You can be sure the Republicans are going to be leaning hard on the Maine gals to vote no because they want a united front. One or two Democrats, like Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu, may get the shakes at the last minute depending on the dynamics within their states.</p><p>And in the House, some of the more lefty members might vote against a weak final bill because it doesn't go far enough.</p><p>It's a pretty depressing picture right about now. But they have to pass something. They should pass what they can and move on. There clearly is not the political will in this country for universal health coverage. And there won't be until the Republican Party becomes at least somewhat more politically heterogeneous, as it was even up through the 1980s. </p><p>However, if anything, it's moving in the opposite direction. Thermidor is a long way away. We're in the Reign of Terror phase now.<br/></p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/congress-healthcare?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky: Next in the Senate}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350943357 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">13.17 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" date-posted "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <p class="date"> Tuesday 28 July 2009 </p> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/28/congress-healthcare" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky: Senate Finance, no public option}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Raise your hand if you're shocked</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>The Associated Press reported last night that the version of the healthcare bill coming out of the Senate Finance Committee -- a key version -- will include <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/07/report-senate-finance-committee-to-be-mum-on-public-option.php">no public option</a>. </p><p>This isn't exactly a shock. Chairman Max Baucus has been leading a little bipartisan group of negotiating senators, trying to come up with something they'll all sign off on. The group includes three Republicans. Since they won't go for a public option, the Democrats drop it, in the interest of bipartisanship. See the fun way the Senate works?!</p><p>The NYT has <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/us/politics/28baucus.html?_r=1&hp">a big piece today</a> on the negotiating group. It's not very edifying. </p><p>In fact, it's a fine example of the kind of newspaper journalism that is growing increasingly otiose in our day and age. It's built around this fake "color" that newspaper editors ask for -- in this case, the fact that they snack on Doritos and a North Dakota delicacy of chocolate covered potato chips (crisps) as they cave in time and again to multi-billion dollar corporations and permit more Americans to suffer and die. The Times didn't say that last part.</p><p>Ezra Klein, meanwhile, <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/07/what_happened_to_the_moral_cas.html">asked a question yesterday</a> that I've been asking: </p><blockquote><p>Reid quotes Princeton health economist Uwe Reinhardt saying that "the opponents of universal health insurance cloak their sentiments in actuarial technicalities or in the mellifluous language of the standard economic theory of markets, thereby avoiding a debate on ideology that truly might engage the American public."</p><p>This year, however, it's not just been the opponents of the policy who have relied on the "mellifluous language of the standard economic theory of markets." It's been the advocates of reform. Ask yourself what the administration's one-line goal is on health-care reform. Is it "equal treatment for everybody?" Is it "if every American is guaranteed a lawyer, why not a doctor?" Is it even "guaranteed health care for everyone?"</p><p>No. It's "bend the curve." </p></blockquote><p>This phrase, if you haven't been following it, refers to the cost curve and means reduce costs. How are you going to rally people around that? </p><p>The import of the Finance decision on the public option: hard to say yet. There's another version of the bill in the Senate that includes it. They'll have to sit down at some point and iron out their differences. A strong public option is worth pushing for and trying to muscle the votes. A weakened one may not be worth it, and might be traded in at the bargaining table for other features.</p><p>Of course, the odds are that Baucus and the Senate Dems will bargain away the public option, and every Republican except Ms. Snowe will vote against it anyway.<br/></p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/28/congress-healthcare?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky: Senate Finance, no public option}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350890636 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">12.00 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" date-posted "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <p class="date"> Monday 27 July 2009 </p> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/republicans-rush-limbaugh" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on the wild assertions from conservatives}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Think I was exaggerating?</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>My <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/26/republicans-barack-obama-citizenship">print column today</a> was about how the GOP occupies an alternate universe. So today, Rush Limbaugh, the titular head of that party, it's been often observed lately, <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/07/limbaugh-warns-against-torture-in-wake-of-obamas-election.php">had this</a> to say:</p><blockquote><p>And there are people in this country, who are Americans, and have the same view of totalitarianism that all the worst regimes in the world have had. They just are a minority -- or have been a minority. And they have to be stealth to get anywhere, because who's gonna vote for torture, who's gonna vote for tyranny, who's gonna vote for dictatorship? But we did. We did, and you see it slowly encroaching. And if they could move faster on this, they would.</p></blockquote><p>When he says "we" voted for torture, he is referring of course to Obama's victory. Hey, don't ask me.</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/republicans-rush-limbaugh?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on the wild assertions from conservatives}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350867661 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">20.32 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/obama-beer-henry-louis-gates-crowley" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on Barack Obamas meeting with Officer James Crowley and}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Make sure there's some arugula on hand</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>CNN has <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/07/27/obama-to-meet-this-week-with-professor-officer/">confirmed</a> that Obama will indeed host Skip Gates and Officer Crowley at the White House this week for beers. Check this out:</p><blockquote><p>The White House has revealed what beer will be served at the much-anticipated meeting later this week: Bud for the president and Blue Moon for Crowley. The Boston Globe reports Gates likes Red Stripe and Beck's.</p></blockquote><p>That's great. The elitist big-city president is having a Budweiser, while the Irish cop is drinking the fussy beer. The beer snob website <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://thebeersnob.wordpress.com/2007/01/11/blue-moon/">reports</a> that Blue Moon is Belgian style white and recommends it highly.</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/obama-beer-henry-louis-gates-crowley?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on Barack Obamas meeting with Officer James Crowley and}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350867516 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">20.26 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/healthcare-blue-dog-democrats" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on conservative Democrats and opposition to healtchare r}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">How real is the Blue Dogs' fear?</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>I have <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/58085/">a little piece</a> in this week's New York magazine, where I'm doing some summertime pinch-hitting, talking about the moderate and conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats and healthcare reform.<br/> <br/>Paul Krugman weighs in on them <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/27/opinion/27krugman.html">today</a> too. He points out the inconsistencies in their arguments - for example, that they do a lot of huffing and puffing about cost containment but seem to oppose the one provision, the public option, that is designed to increase competition and contain costs:</p><blockquote><p>So what are the objections of the Blue Dogs? </p><p>Well, they talk a lot about fiscal responsibility, which basically boils down to worrying about the cost of those subsidies. And it's tempting to stop right there, and cry foul. After all, where were those concerns about fiscal responsibility back in 2001, when most conservative Democrats voted enthusiastically for that year's big Bush tax cut — a tax cut that added $1.35 trillion to the deficit?</p><p>But it's actually much worse than that — because even as they complain about the plan's cost, the Blue Dogs are making demands that would greatly increase that cost.<br/>There has been a lot of publicity about Blue Dog opposition to the public option, and rightly so: a plan without a public option to hold down insurance premiums would cost taxpayers more than a plan with such an option.</p></blockquote><p>Harrumph. My point in my piece is more of a political one.</p><p>Take a look at <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/district_08">this map</a>, which does a couple of things. First, it breaks down the presidential results from last year by congressional district. Second, it tells you who won the congressional seat, and by how much. So you can mix and match those results and see how thin the ice is, or is not, on which some of these Blue Dogs actually skate.</p><p>A few have real concerns. There's this guy Walt Minnick, a Democrat from Idaho's first district. He barely won in a district in which John McCain crushed Obama. So he needs to watch his step, clearly.</p><p>But now go down to Arkansas four, which is the district of Democrat Mike Ross. He has been probably the leading Blue Dog Democrat on healthcare. Yes, McCain won in his district, by 19 points. But he won...not by five...not by 10...not by 20 or 30 or 40...but by 86 points! He ran unopposed, drawing 86% of the vote. </p><p>Is someone like that really at risk of losing his seat if he supports, say, a public option? It seems utterly impossible to me. What he's at risk of, in the real world, is having an opponent - that is, having to campaign for a change, having to go out and raise some money, having to put effort into reelection. He's at risk of winning "merely" 57 or 61% of the vote, and having to work a little bit. Poor man.</p><p>Ross is an extreme case, but most Blue Dogs won quite handily. He's much closer to the rule than Minnick is. Perhaps I'll run the numbers tomorrow. But the point is, most of these Blue Dogs aren't likely to lose over one vote.</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/healthcare-blue-dog-democrats?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on conservative Democrats and opposition to healtchare r}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350867073 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">20.07 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/sarah-palin-resignation-media" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Sarah Palin tells the American media to quit makin things up}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Do it for the soldiers</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>The Embarracudah <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/akmuckraker/sarah-palins-farewell-add_b_245215.html ">was in fine form yesterday</a>, making excuses, as is her custom, and passing off her decision to quit as an act of selfless bravery. The best passage:</p><blockquote><p>And first, some straight talk for some, just some in the media because another right protected for all of us is freedom of the press, and you all have such important jobs reporting facts and informing the electorate, and exerting power to influence. You represent what could and should be a respected honest profession that could and should be the cornerstone of our democracy. Democracy depends on you, and that is why, that's why our troops are willing to die for you. So, how 'bout in honor of the American soldier, ya quit makin' things up.</p></blockquote><p>I suspect she does not mean here, say, The National Review, one of whose writers spent last year "proving" that Bill Ayers ghost wrote Obama's first book. She means people like Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric, who had the temerity to demand that she evince basic familiarity with the Bush Doctrine and be able to name one Supreme Court decision in US history aside from Roe v. Wade. Fabricators! Disrespectors of troops!</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/sarah-palin-resignation-media?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Sarah Palin tells the American media to quit makin things up}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350858400 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">16.29 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/bianca-jagger" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky: Take that, Bianca}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Take that, Bianca</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>Back in 1996, at the Democratic convention in Chicago, I met Bianca Jagger at some party or other. She was polite but seemed unimpressed. The next day, I saw her at the gym at my hotel. It was one of those smallish hotel gyms, and it was just the two of us. My imagination soared to improbable heights. And indeed she seemed to remember having met me, and smiled and nodded. But this time she seemed even less impressed. In fairness to La Bianca, I was carrying about 20 more pounds in those days than I am now, so I probably wasn't a very attractive dish.<br/> <br/>Anyway, today I exact my revenge, because <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/26/republicans-barack-obama-citizenship">here is a link</a> to my piece from today's print Guardian, currently up on the Editor's Picks at CIF with 158 comments and counting. Third most commented and third most viewed.<br/> <br/>Meanwhile, <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/27/mining-india-human-rights">Bianca's CIF piece</a>, on human rights? Just 31 comments. I know which one I'd read if I were you.</p><p><strong>UPDATE: </strong>You understand this is just a joke, right? I mean, I met her, but as I wrote this post I never took seriously the notion that anyone reading this could possibly think that I could possibly think that Bianca Jagger ought to have been interested in me in the slightest. I tried to signal this by describing what a lumpy and frumpy chubster I was in those days. I think my regular readers understand that I often adopt that ironic Randy Newman-ish voice, the one in which he sang "Sail Away," for instance. I sometimes forget about the irregulars. </p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/bianca-jagger?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky: Take that, Bianca}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350851667 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">14.45 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" date-posted "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <p class="date"> Saturday 25 July 2009 </p> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="linktext media-below"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/video/2009/jul/25/sarah-palin-alaska-governor" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Tomasky talk: Michael Tomasky looks at Sarah Palins brief tenure as gov}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text" title="Video will start automatically on this page">'The United States is losing ... a great leader'</a> </h3> </div> <script id="omnitureVideoData_30711283001" type="text/javascript"> function getOmnitureAccount_30711283001(){ return "guardiangu-blogs,guardiangu-network,guardiangu-commentisfree,guardiandev2"; } function getOmnitureData_30711283001() { var omniture = new Object(); omniture.prop43="Video"; omniture.prop44="Tomasky talk: Michael Tomasky looks at Sarah Palin\'s brief tenure as governor of Alaska"; omniture.prop45="Michael Tomasky\'s blog:other:1012987"; omniture.eVar43="Video"; omniture.eVar44="Tomasky talk: Michael Tomasky looks at Sarah Palin\'s brief tenure as governor of Alaska"; omniture.eVar45="Michael Tomasky\'s blog:other:1012987"; return omniture; } </script> <div class="hide-on-popup"> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839js_/http://static.guim.co.uk/static/77051/common/scripts/eolas_workaround.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> (function() { var flashVars = "playerID=26396137001&@videoPlayer=30711283001&domain=embed&autoStart=false&adServerURL=http%3A%2F%2Fads.guardian.co.uk%2Fhtml.ng%2Fspacedesc%3Dvideo%26system%3Dvideo%26title%3D30711283001%26site%3DCommentisfree%26url%3D%25252Fcommentisfree%25252Fmichaeltomasky%25252Fvideo%25252F2009%25252Fjul%25252F25%25252Fsarah-palin-alaska-governor%26comfolder%3DUSElections%26keywords%3DSarah%252BPalin%252CRepublicans%252CUS%252Bnews%252CWorld%252Bnews%26bandwidth%3Dbroadband%26tile%3D4028210"; insertVideoObject(460, 370, "http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9/26396137001?isVid=1&isUI=1&publisherID=281851582", flashVars) }) (); </script> </div> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="trailtext"> <p><strong>Tomasky talk:</strong> As Sarah Palin prepares to leave office, <strong>Michael Tomasky</strong> reflects on her tenure as Alaska's governor</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/video/2009/jul/25/sarah-palin-alaska-governor?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Tomasky talk: Michael Tomasky looks at Sarah Palins brief tenure as gov}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350802318 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">21.08 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" date-posted "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <p class="date"> Friday 24 July 2009 </p> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/obama-citizen-usa" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on rumours surrounding Barack Obamas citizenship status}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">One by one, they tumble into line...</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>Here's the <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/07/24/department-of-understatement.aspx">New Republic</a> linking to Taegan Goddard linking to Dave Wiegel (who's the one who's actually doing the legwork) on how the McCain campaign looked into but dismissed the allegations that Obama was not a citizen. The man being quoted here is McCain campaign lawyer Trevor Potter:</p><blockquote><p>We saw rumors, but nothing that could be sourced to evidence. There were no statements and no documents that suggested he was born somewhere else. On the other side, there was proof that he was born in Hawaii. There was a certificate issued by the state's Department of Health, and the responsible official in the state saying that he had personally seen the original certificate. There was a birth announcement in the Honolulu Advertiser, which would be very difficult to invent or plant 47 years in advance.</p></blockquote><p>Sigh. It appears Potter has been drinking the Kool Aid too. He fails to understand dialectics, the long view of history those on the hard left are capable of taking, the patience they can show once they know they've hatched the perfect plot. To that cohort, 47 years is the mere blink of an eye. </p><p>Consider this.</p><p>In 1961, Bill Ayers was already 17, already a radical. He has never, despite being given ample opportunity to do so, disproven speculation that he celebrated his 17th birthday in Honolulu with his family. And conveniently, the Advertiser "no longer maintains" records about who placed birth announcements in 1961. To this day, I'm told that if you throw down a <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.morethings.com/fan/manchurian_candidate/plot-revealed-angela_lansbury-laurence_harvey02.jpg">queen of diamonds</a> on a table in front of Ayers, a blank look overtakes his face and he immediately begins making travel preparations for Hawaii. I trust you're now beginning to see reason.<br/> <br/>What mad people. What a mad week. And what a mad weekend coming - Embarracudah's last, perhaps, with a security detail, with no one now willing to pay her per diem expenses to sleep in her own home. The fates can be so cruel. Have a good one.</p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/obama-citizen-usa?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on rumours surrounding Barack Obamas citizenship status}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350786862 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">22.41 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/barack-obama-race" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky reacts to Obamas latest comments on Harvard race row}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Now that was fast</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>So, within mere minutes of the appearance of my last blog post on the matter, <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/24/obama-race-cambridge-police ">Obama telephoned Sgt. Crowley</a> to express regret for his remark and affirm his support for him and cops generally. And then, the prez made an impromptu appearance at what was supposed to be Robert Gibbs' afternoon press avail to tell the nation that he'd called Crowley and to admit that his words "unfortunately" gave the wrong impression and he could have "calibrated" his words differently.<br/> <br/>Crowley, Obama said, suggested that the three of them (those two plus Gates) have a beer at the White House, and Obama adjudged that a good idea.<br/> <br/>What's that you say? He wasn't reacting to my blog post but to the police union press conference I was writing about? Oh.<br/> <br/>This is a land-speed record. That press conference wasn't over an hour, probably, before Obama got Crowley on what those of an earlier generation sometimes called "the old Ameche" (a bonus points to the reader who can explain why). Obama may not read me, but by gum I was right that that press conference had legs. The White House was obviously terrified that the story was going to swallow everything for days.<br/> <br/>It was a good move. His only play. And the WH really ought to follow through on the beers thing. That, strange as it sounds, could do a lot of good for race relations. <a class="continue-reading" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/barack-obama-race">Continue reading...</a></p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/barack-obama-race?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky reacts to Obamas latest comments on Harvard race row}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350785244 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">20.21 BST</span> </div> </li> <li class=" "> <div class="blog-excerpt"> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <h3> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/obama-race-cambridge-police" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on Massachusetts police union officials and the Gates ar}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">The Cambridge cops throw down</a> </h3> </div> <div class="trailtext"> <p>I was going to write some final and lightly bemused beard-scratching reflections on the Gates matter. Then I looked at the television and couldn't quite believe me eyes: officials of the police union representing Sgt. Crowley are holding (noon hour east coast time) a huge press conference defending Crowley and attacking Gates and Obama (and the governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick, who's also black).<br/> <br/>About four or five men, all white (speaking of public relations, a really bad move; but presumably if they'd had one black person to put out there they would have, so this probably tells us something about their hierarchy), took turns at a microphone to make various demands that Obama issue an apology for his remarks. The main spokesman, whose name I didn't get, said (of course) that they weren't demanding anything, but it was hard to observe their comments and think this was anything else.<br/> <br/>First: In substance, I basically agree with the spokesman's criticisms of Obama's remarks. The president of the United States shouldn't say about any case that I don't know all the facts, but here's my take, and in the process use an electric word like "stupidly." That was, uh, stupid. No excuses here.<br/> <br/>However, I'd think twice before calling a full-scale press conference, with some 15 or 20 people up there on the podium. You know that an event like that is really going to ratchet up the stakes. It'll keep the story alive, which is what they want, but it runs the substantive risk of inflaming tensions over this. Not just Boston tensions (which would be enough in that city, believe me). But national tensions. Is that really what they want to do, especially when it involves the president of the United States? <a class="continue-reading" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/obama-race-cambridge-police">Continue reading...</a></p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/24/obama-race-cambridge-police?commentpage=1" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Michael Tomasky on Massachusetts police union officials and the Gates ar}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="comment-count-info pluck-init-inline comment-count-id-350783651 pluck-commentable"> <span class="link-comment-count"></span><span class="link-comment-count-words"></span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blog-byline"> <span>Posted by</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/michaeltomasky" name="&lid={blogBylineContributor}{Michael Tomasky}&lpos={blogBylineContributor}{1}">Michael Tomasky</a> <span class="timestamp">18.38 BST</span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul class="pagination"> <li class="first"></li> <li class="last"><a name="&lid={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{pagination-next}&lpos={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{1}" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky?page=2" rel="nofollow">Next</a></li> <li>1</li> <li><a name="&lid={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{pagination-page}&lpos={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{2}" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky?page=2" rel="nofollow">2</a></li> <li><a name="&lid={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{pagination-page}&lpos={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{3}" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky?page=3" rel="nofollow">3</a></li> <li><a name="&lid={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{pagination-page}&lpos={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{4}" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky?page=4" rel="nofollow">4</a></li> <li><a name="&lid={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{pagination-page}&lpos={blogTagAutoTrailblock}{5}" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky?page=5" rel="nofollow">5</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="promo"> <div id="rightslot1" class="hide-on-popup"> <script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ if(isExternalSystemOn("displayads")) { var src = 'http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://ads.guardian.co.uk/js.ng/spacedesc=rightslot1&comfolder=notcommerciallyuseful&keywords=%2C&site=Commentisfree&bandwidth=broadband&url=%252Fcommentisfree%252Fmichaeltomasky&rand=-261579215&series=&system=blog&tile=4028210&blockVideoAds=false&'; 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class="active">Comments<b></b></a> </li> </ul> <div class="pane-wrapper"> <div id="most-viewed-blog-1" class="most-viewed-blog-pane tab-toggle-pane"> <h3 class="js-hider">Comments</h3> <ol> <li class="first"> <span class="rank">1.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/28/congress-healthcare">Raise your hand if you're shocked</a> (39) </li> <li> <span class="rank">2.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/republicans-rush-limbaugh">Think I was exaggerating?</a> (36) </li> <li> <span class="rank">3.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/obama-beer-henry-louis-gates-crowley">Make sure there's some arugula on hand</a> (23) </li> <li> <span class="rank">4.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/congress-healthcare">What's next in the Senate?</a> (22) </li> <li> <span class="rank">5.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/29/blue-dog-democrats">How nervous should those Blue Dogs be?</a> (20) </li> </ol> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="blog-related-links" class="capsule"> <div class="capsule ed-zone "> <div id="" class="tri trail trailblock"> <ul class="tri trail trailblock"> <li class="major-heading first"> <h2> Full coverage </h2> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky+world/barack-obama" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Barack Obama}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Barack Obama</a> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div 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Tomasky}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Michael Tomasky: full archive and profile</a> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="capsule ed-zone external-links"> <div id="" class="tri trail trailblock"> <ul class="tri trail trailblock"> <li class="major-heading first"> <h2> Michael's blogroll </h2> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://mediamatters.org/altercation/" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Eric Alterman}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Eric Alterman</a> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Huffington Post}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Huffington Post</a> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://ezraklein.typepad.com/" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Ezra Klein}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Ezra Klein</a> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.dailykos.com/" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Daily Kos}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Daily Kos</a> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Andrew Sullivan}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Andrew Sullivan</a> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://talkingpointsmemo.com/" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Talking Points Memo}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Talking Points Memo</a> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="trail-caption"> <div class="linktext"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/" name="&lid={trailItemImageAndTrailText}{Matthew Yglesias}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="link-text">Matthew Yglesias</a> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div id="blogs-calendar"> <div class="capsule"> <h2>Michael Tomasky's blog weekly archives</h2> <div id="calendar-container"> <table title="Calendar for July" summary="Calendar for July" id="calendar"> <thead> <tr> <th colspan="7" scope="col"> <strong class="month">Jul 2009</strong> <a title="Previous month" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jun/29/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Previous}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{1}" class="previous"> <img src="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/static/77051/common/images/calendar/left_arrow.gif" alt="Previous" height="18" width="19"/> </a> </th> </tr> <tr class="month-nav"> <th scope="col" title="Monday" class="first">M</th> <th scope="col" title="Tuesday">T</th> <th scope="col" title="Wednesday">W</th> <th scope="col" title="Thursday">T</th> <th scope="col" title="Friday">F</th> <th scope="col" title="Saturday">S</th> <th scope="col" title="Sunday" class="last">S</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class=" has-links "> <td class="not-this-month first">29</td> <td class="not-this-month ">30</td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jun/29/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 1}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{2}">1</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jun/29/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 2}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{3}">2</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jun/29/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 3}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{4}">3</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jun/29/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 4}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{5}">4</a></td> <td class="last"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jun/29/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 5}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{6}">5</a></td> </tr> <tr class=" has-links "> <td class="first"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/06/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 6}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{7}">6</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/06/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 7}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{8}">7</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/06/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 8}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{9}">8</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/06/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 9}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{10}">9</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/06/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 10}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{11}">10</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/06/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 11}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{12}">11</a></td> <td class="last"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/06/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 12}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{13}">12</a></td> </tr> <tr class=" has-links "> <td class="first"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/13/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 13}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{14}">13</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/13/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 14}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{15}">14</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/13/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 15}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{16}">15</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/13/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 16}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{17}">16</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/13/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 17}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{18}">17</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/13/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 18}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{19}">18</a></td> <td class="last"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/13/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 19}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{20}">19</a></td> </tr> <tr class=" has-links "> <td class="first"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/20/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 20}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{21}">20</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/20/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 21}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{22}">21</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/20/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 22}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{23}">22</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/20/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 23}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{24}">23</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/20/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 24}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{25}">24</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/20/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 25}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{26}">25</a></td> <td class="last"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/20/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 26}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{27}">26</a></td> </tr> <tr class=" has-links "> <td class="first"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 27}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{28}" class="today">27</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 28}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{29}">28</a></td> <td><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jul/27/week" name="&lid={calendarNavigation}{Calendar 29}&lpos={calendarNavigation}{30}">29</a></td> <td>30</td> <td>31</td> <td class="not-this-month ">1</td> <td class="not-this-month last">2</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> </div> <div class="latest-cif-posts capsule"> <h3 id="cp-scott-promo"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree">comment is free…</a></h3> <h4>Latest posts</h4> <script type="text/javascript" language="javascript"> // <![CDATA[ if (isExternalSystemOn("pluck")) { insertStyleSheet('styles/wide/pluck-on.css'); } // ]]> </script> <div class="latest-content"> <ul id="cif-auto-trail-block"> <li> <div class="byline"> <a class="container" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/29/israel-palestinian-talks-obama" name="&lid={latestCifPosts}{There can be no Middle East settlement without Hamas | Seumas Milne}&lpos={trail}{1}"><img 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id="global-jobs-1" class="global-jobs-pane tab-toggle-pane"> <h3 class="js-hider">UK</h3> <div class="capsule jobsbox"> <form action="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/searchjobs/" onsubmit="return doSearchAllSubmitUK( this );"> <fieldset> <input type="text" class="text plain-search" id="freetext-searchalljobs" name="freetext" value="Search all jobs" onfocus="this.value='';"/> <input type="hidden" name="keyword" id="keyword-searchalljobs" value=""/> <input type="submit" class="submit" name="go" value="Go"/> <input type="hidden" name="gusrc" value="gu_jobs_box_Comment is free"/> <input type="hidden" name="link" value="Comment is free_jbx_go"/> </fieldset> </form> <p class="find-a-job"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/?gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Comment is free&link=Comment is free_jbx_brsesec" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Browse all jobs}&lpos={jobsBox}{1}">Browse all jobs</a> </p> <ul class="jobs"> <li class="odd"><h4> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/887113/senior-consultant-public-affairs?RSSSearch=0&gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Comment is free&link=Comment is free_jbx_vac" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Senior Consultant - Public Affairs|Comment is free}&lpos={jobsBox}{2}">Senior Consultant - Public Affairs</a></h4> <p><span class="employer">think search and selection.</span> <span class="location">senior consultant public affairs, corporate comms….</span> <span class="wage">Up to £55k + bonus.</span> </p> </li> <li><h4> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/894379/resident-involvement-and-community-engagement-officer?RSSSearch=0&gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Comment is free&link=Comment is free_jbx_vac" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Resident Involvement &amp; Community Engagement Of&hellip;|Comment is free}&lpos={jobsBox}{3}">Resident Involvement & Community Engagement Of…</a></h4> <p><span class="employer">servite houses limited.</span> <span 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plain-search" id="freetext-searchalljobs" name="q" value="Search all jobs" onfocus="this.value='';"/> <input type="hidden" name="keyword" id="keyword-searchalljobs" value=""/> <input type="submit" class="submit" name="go" value="Go"/> <input type="hidden" name="gusrc" value="gu_jobs_box_Comment is free"/> <input type="hidden" name="link" value="Comment is free_jbx_go"/> </fieldset> </form> <p class="find-a-job"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/?gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Comment is free&link=Comment is free_jbx_brsesec" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Browse all jobs}&lpos={jobsBox}{1}">Browse all jobs</a> </p> <textarea id="jobs-box-usa-textarea" style="display:none;"> {for result in results} <li> <h4> <a href="${result.url}">${result.jobtitle}</a> </h4> <p> <span class="description">${ result.snippet }</span> <span class="location">${ result.state }</span> </p> </li> {/for} </textarea> <script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ var userip = '207.241.235.66'; var country = 'usa'; var isUSA = (country.toLowerCase() == 'usa') ? true : false; var jobsBoxView = new guardian.r2.JobsBoxView('jobs-box-usa', 'jobs-box-usa-textarea'); var jobsBoxService = new guardian.r2.JobsBoxService('', userip); /* category, location */ var jobsBoxController = new guardian.r2.JobsBoxController(jobsBoxView, jobsBoxService, isUSA); //view, service, locationIsUSA //]]> </script> <ul id="jobs-box-usa" class="jobs"> <li class="javascript-on">Loading jobs...</li> </ul> <p class="attribution javascript-on"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.indeed.com/">jobs</a> by <a title="Job Search" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839/http://www.indeed.com/"><img alt="Indeed job search" src="http://web.archive.org/web/20090729222839im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/static/77051/common/images/icon_usjobs.gif" width="54" height="19"/></a></p> <script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ function doSearchAllSubmitUSA( form ) { var 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