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<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en" class=" story nytapp-vi-article " xmlns:og="http://opengraphprotocol.org/schema/"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8" /> <title data-rh="true">Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously - The New York Times</title> <meta data-rh="true" name="robots" content="noarchive, max-image-preview:large"/><meta data-rh="true" name="description" content="Almost all the polling shows the same pattern. Could the coming campaign restore Democrats’ usual advantage?"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:url" content="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:title" content="Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously (Published 2023)"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:description" content="Almost all the polling shows the same pattern. Could the coming campaign restore Democrats’ usual advantage?"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:image" content="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-videoSixteenByNine3000.jpg?year=2023&h=1687&w=3000&s=011810be485f501154131a589ecf12322c9c78e8538aa7b618f596fe7049ca11&k=ZQJBKqZ0VN&tw=1"/><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:image:alt" content="A solid youth vote edge could be in doubt for Democrats in 2024. 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class="css-233int e16638kd4">Updated <!-- -->Nov. 28, 2023</span></time></div></header><section name="articleBody" class="meteredContent css-1r7ky0e"><div data-testid="ImageBlock-0"><div data-testid="imageblock-wrapper"><figure class="img-sz-medium css-d754w4 e1g7ppur0" aria-label="media" role="group"><div class="css-1xdhyk6 erfvjey0" data-testid="photoviewer-children-figure"><span class="css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0">Image</span><picture><source media="(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)" srcSet="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=1800"/><source media="(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)" srcSet="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=1200"/><source media="(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)" srcSet="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=600"/><img alt="" class="css-r3fift" src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale" srcSet="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp 600w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp 1024w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/11/27/multimedia/27up-skate-biden-gqhv/27up-skate-biden-gqhv-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp 2048w" sizes="((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw" uri="nyt://image/29e589d1-8bda-5427-8550-0d33543eb3b1" decoding="async" width="600" height="400"/></picture></div><figcaption data-testid="photoviewer-children-caption" class="css-gbc9ki ewdxa0s0"><span class="css-jevhma e13ogyst0">A solid youth vote edge could be in doubt for Democrats in 2024. </span><span class="css-14fe1uy e1z0qqy90"><span class="css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0">Credit...</span><span><span aria-hidden="false">Gabriella Angotti-Jones for The New York Times</span></span></span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-0"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Could President Biden and Donald J. Trump really be locked in a close race among young voters — a group Democrats typically carry by double digits — as the recent Times/Siena polls suggest?</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">To many of our readers and others, it’s a little hard to believe — so hard to believe that it seems to them the polls are flat-out wrong.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Of course, it’s always possible that the polls are wrong. I’ve thought our own polling might be wrong before, and I would be very apprehensive if it were just our poll out on a limb. But this isn’t about one Times/Siena poll: <a class="css-yywogo" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/number-public-polls-show-young-voters-turning-biden-rcna125794" title="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Virtually every poll</a> shows a close race between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump among young voters.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">When dozens of polls all say the same thing, it’s worth taking the polling seriously. It’s easy to remember that the polling can be wrong, but it can be easy to forget that the polling is <em class="css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0">usually </em>in the ballpark. It’s a losing game to dismiss all polling simply because it doesn’t comport with expectations.</p></div><aside class="css-ew4tgv" aria-label="companion column"></aside></div><div data-testid="Dropzone-2"></div><div class="css-s99gbd StoryBodyCompanionColumn" data-testid="companionColumn-1"><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">Now, that doesn’t mean I don’t sympathize with those who question whether the final election results will look like recent polls. Personally, I’m skeptical the final results will look quite like these polls. But even if you think the final results will be very different, it does not mean that the polls are “wrong” today.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">In fact, the belief that Mr. Biden will ultimately win young voters handily next year does nothing to distinguish two very different explanations for what we see in the polling:</p><ul class="css-1le37cb ez3869y0"><li class="css-1i3ul0c eoqvrfo0"><p class="css-1il0jfh evys1bk0"><strong class="css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10">The polls are mostly wrong.</strong> They’re biased. For whatever reason, they fail to reach the Democratic-leaning young voters who propelled Mr. Biden to victory in 2020.</p></li><li class="css-1i3ul0c eoqvrfo0"><p class="css-1il0jfh evys1bk0"><strong class="css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10">The polls are mostly right.</strong> They’re reaching the young voters who backed Mr. Biden. But for now, these voters don’t support him. Over the next year, things could change.</p></li></ul><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0">When it comes to the Times/Siena poll, we’ve put forward <em class="css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0">a lot </em>of evidence consistent with the theory that the polling is mostly right, but that things might change.</p><div class="css-1336jj"><div class="css-121kum4"><div class="css-171quhb"></div><div class="css-asuuk5"><noscript><div class="css-7axq9l" data-testid="optimistic-truncator-noscript"><svg width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" class="css-1b5b8u1"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M2.5 12a9.5 9.5 0 1 1 19 0 9.5 9.5 0 0 1-19 0Zm8.5 1.75v-7.5h2v7.5h-2Zm0 2v2h2v-2h-2Z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg><div data-testid="optimistic-truncator-noscript-message" class="css-6yo1no"><p class="css-3kpklk">We are having trouble retrieving the article content.</p><p class="css-3kpklk">Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.</p></div></div></noscript><div class="css-1dv1kvn" id="optimistic-truncator-a11y" tabindex="-1"><hr/><p>Thank you for your patience while we verify access. 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","timesTags":[],"uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Fimage\u002F29e589d1-8bda-5427-8550-0d33543eb3b1","url":"\u002Fimagepages\u002F2023\u002F11\u002F22\u002Fmultimedia\u002F27up-skate-biden-gqhv.html"},"size":"MEDIUM"},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Could President Biden and Donald J. Trump really be locked in a close race among young voters — a group Democrats typically carry by double digits — as the recent Times\u002FSiena polls suggest?"}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":0},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"To many of our readers and others, it’s a little hard to believe — so hard to believe that it seems to them the polls are flat-out wrong."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":1},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Of course, it’s always possible that the polls are wrong. I’ve thought our own polling might be wrong before, and I would be very apprehensive if it were just our poll out on a limb. But this isn’t about one Times\u002FSiena poll: "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nbcnews.com\u002Fmeet-the-press\u002Fmeetthepressblog\u002Fnumber-public-polls-show-young-voters-turning-biden-rcna125794"}],"text":"Virtually every poll"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" shows a close race between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump among young voters."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":true,"bad":false,"index":2},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"When dozens of polls all say the same thing, it’s worth taking the polling seriously. It’s easy to remember that the polling can be wrong, but it can be easy to forget that the polling is "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"ItalicFormat","type":null}],"text":"usually "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"in the ballpark. It’s a losing game to dismiss all polling simply because it doesn’t comport with expectations."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":true,"adsDesktopHoldout":true,"adsHybrid":true,"adsMobile":true,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":3},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Now, that doesn’t mean I don’t sympathize with those who question whether the final election results will look like recent polls. Personally, I’m skeptical the final results will look quite like these polls. But even if you think the final results will be very different, it does not mean that the polls are “wrong” today."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":4},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"In fact, the belief that Mr. Biden will ultimately win young voters handily next year does nothing to distinguish two very different explanations for what we see in the polling:"}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"ListBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat","type":null}],"text":"The polls are mostly wrong."},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" They’re biased. For whatever reason, they fail to reach the Democratic-leaning young voters who propelled Mr. Biden to victory in 2020."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat","type":null}],"text":"The polls are mostly right."},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" They’re reaching the young voters who backed Mr. Biden. But for now, these voters don’t support him. Over the next year, things could change."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"}]}],"style":"UNORDERED"},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"When it comes to the Times\u002FSiena poll, we’ve put forward "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"ItalicFormat","type":null}],"text":"a lot "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"of evidence consistent with the theory that the polling is mostly right, but that things might change."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":5},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"By the measures at our disposal, the voters 18 to 29 in our survey “look” right. They say they backed Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump in the last presidential election by a wide margin, 57-35, right in line with our expectations. They “look” right by other measures of partisanship as well. In the states with party registration, for instance, the Times\u002FSiena young voters were registered Democrats by a 13-point margin, 35 percent to 22 percent. That’s almost exactly in line with their actual 13-point registration advantage, 36 percent to 23 percent."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":true,"bad":false,"index":6},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"It’s important to emphasize that just because the polls “look” right doesn’t mean they are right. Our polls looked “right” by these kind of indicators in 2020. They were "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2020\u002F11\u002F10\u002Fupshot\u002Fpolls-what-went-wrong.html"}],"text":"still wrong"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" in important ways (though they "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2020\u002F10\u002F26\u002Fupshot\u002Ftexas-polls-biden-trump.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article"}],"text":"were right"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" about plenty as well, including "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2020\u002F10\u002F28\u002Fus\u002Felections\u002Fthe-elections-big-twist-the-racial-gap-between-republicans-and-democrats-is-shrinking.html"}],"text":"racial"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" and generational depolarization). But these data points nonetheless raise the burden on those who assert that the issue is partisan nonresponse bias, in which young Democrats simply aren’t answering their cellphones (99.8 percent of our young respondents were reached by cellphone)."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":true,"adsMobile":true,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":7},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"We see no evidence of that. In our polling, the problem for Mr. Biden isn’t too few young Democrats. It’s that many young Democrats don’t like him. Mr. Biden has just a 76-20 lead among young voters either registered as Democrats or who have previously voted in a Democratic primary. It’s just a 69-24 lead among young nonwhite Democrats. The dissent exists among self-identified Democrats, Democratic-leaners, Biden ’20 voters, and so on."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":true,"adsDesktopHoldout":true,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":8},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"This kind of intraparty dissent is rare but not without precedent in our polling. I’ve seen it in our "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2018\u002Fupshot\u002Felections-poll-ks03-3.html"}],"text":"congressional polls"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" of highly educated suburbs full of Romney-Clinton voters. And I’ve seen it once before in a statewide presidential race: our "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2016\u002F10\u002F30\u002Fupshot\u002Fflorida-poll.html"}],"text":"final"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2016\u002F11\u002F08\u002Fupshot\u002Ftrump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html"}],"text":"polls"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" in 2016, when Mr. Trump suddenly surged to obtain 30 percent of white working-class registered Democrats. It was hard to believe, but it was fairly easy to "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2016\u002F06\u002F30\u002Fupshot\u002Fhow-trumps-campaign-could-redraw-voter-allegiances.html"}],"text":"explain"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" and it raised the serious "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2016\u002F11\u002F07\u002Fupshot\u002Fwhy-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html"}],"text":"possibility"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" of a Trump win."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":9},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Similarly, I think it’s fairly straightforward to explain Mr. Biden’s weakness among young voters today, much as it was easy to explain Mrs. Clinton’s among white working-class voters in 2016. Young voters are by far the likeliest to say he’s just too old to be an effective president. Many are upset about his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. And all of this is against the backdrop of Mr. Biden’s longstanding weakness among young voters, who weren’t enthusiastic about him in 2020, and Mr. Trump’s "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2023\u002F09\u002F15\u002Fupshot\u002Fdemocrats-biden-hispanic-black-voters.html"}],"text":"gains among nonwhite voters"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":", who are disproportionately young."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":true,"bad":false,"index":10},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"But even if you don’t buy these explanations, that’s mostly just a reason to believe the numbers will shift over the next year, not a reason to dismiss the polling."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":true,"adsMobile":true,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":11},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"After all, these polls do not depict the usual, stable basis for vote choice that we’ve become accustomed to in our polarized country. This is not an election where almost all voters like their own party’s candidate while disliking the opposing party’s candidate and disagreeing with them on the issues. Instead, we have an unstable arrangement: Millions of voters dislike both candidates, entertain minor-party candidates and when pressed often say they would vote for someone from the other major political party whom they disagree with on many important issues. These are the textbook conditions for volatility, and it’s entirely reasonable to doubt whether the arrangement will last once the campaign gets underway."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":12},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"We tried to illustrate the abstract possibility that “things can change” more concretely "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2023\u002F11\u002F16\u002Fupshot\u002Fkamala-harris-biden-voters-polls.html"}],"text":"through an article in which we called back the Kamala-not-Joe voters"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" — the young voters who back Vice President Kamala Harris over Mr. Trump but not Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump. It’s worth noting that these are the kinds of voters we would expect to find in the data if Mr. Biden really were performing this badly among an otherwise typical sample of young voters — much as the 2016 polling featured plenty of white working-class Trump voters who approved of Barack Obama and who said they voted for him in 2012."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":true,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":false,"index":13},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"There’s one other way the results might end up “normal,” even with today’s polling: a low youth turnout. Almost all of the polls nowadays are among registered voters, not likely voters, and "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","title":"","uri":null,"url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2023\u002F10\u002F30\u002Fupshot\u002Fbiden-voters-midterms-2024.html"}],"text":"most of Mr. Biden’s weakness"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" is among disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate. In the latest Times\u002FSiena polling, Mr. Biden leads by 15 points among young voters who turned out in the midterms, while he trails by three points among young voters who didn’t turn out. If these irregular, disaffected voters simply choose not to vote, Mr. Biden will most likely have a healthy lead with young voters."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":true,"bad":false,"index":14},{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"There are countless other reasons the polls today may not ultimately align with the final result. For one, Mr. Trump could be convicted of federal crimes in six months. But just because the polls aren’t necessarily “predictive” of the final outcome does not mean they’re wrong. It doesn’t mean they’re not worth taking seriously, either. For the campaigns, taking the numbers seriously today may wind up being exactly what changes the numbers tomorrow."}],"textAlign":"LEFT"},{"__typename":"Dropzone","adsDesktop":false,"adsDesktopHoldout":false,"adsHybrid":false,"adsMobile":false,"adsMobileHoldout":false,"bad":true,"index":15},{"__typename":"RelatedLinksBlock","description":[],"displayStyle":"STANDARD","related":[{"__typename":"Article","bylines":[{"__typename":"Byline","creators":[{"__typename":"Person","displayName":"Claire Cain Miller","id":"UGVyc29uOm55dDovL3BlcnNvbi9jYTk4NWIzMC1iM2VhLTUwNGQtYmNiYi1iZTc1NDhhNzZmYjE="},{"__typename":"Person","displayName":"Nate Cohn","id":"UGVyc29uOm55dDovL3BlcnNvbi82MjM2NTY3My0zYjM0LTUwZTktODMyMi02OWM1NTMxODFjNGI="}]}],"collections":[],"firstPublished":"2023-11-16T15:44:25.000Z","headline":{"__typename":"CreativeWorkHeadline","default":"We Talked to Some Kamala-but-Not-Joe Voters. 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href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-retribution-list.html\\\"\u003Ea campaign of revenge and retribution\u003C\u002Fa\u003E that has little analogue in American history.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EFiring Spree:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E The first test of President Trump’s power to fire officials \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F16\u002Fus\u002Ftrump-supreme-court-special-counsel.html\\\"\u003Ehas reached the Supreme Court\u003C\u002Fa\u003E. This comes after laying off \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F15\u002Fclimate\u002Fus-forest-service-layoffs-wildfires.html\\\"\u003Eforest service workers\u003C\u002Fa\u003E and \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F15\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-administration-continues-immigration-court-crackdown-with-judge-firings.html\\\"\u003Ejudges\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, and \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F16\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-national-nuclear-security-administration-employees-firings.html\\\"\u003Efiring (then unfiring) federal employees charged with the readiness of America’s nuclear arsenal\u003C\u002Fa\u003E.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EObamacare:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E The administration \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F14\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-obamacare-navigators.html\\\"\u003Esaid it would drastically cut annual spending on so-called navigator groups\u003C\u002Fa\u003E that help Americans enroll in health insurance plans, from around $100 million to just $10 million.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EProject 2025:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E The Times \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F14\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Fproject-2025-trump-actions.html\\\"\u003Efound more than 60 major moves made by the administration in its first 23 days\u003C\u002Fa\u003E that align with proposals in the right-wing blueprint for overhauling the government.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003E‘The Boss of Everyone and Everything’: \u003C\u002Fstrong\u003EPresident Trump is increasingly trying to enforce his will \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F13\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-influence.html\\\"\u003Eon areas like the arts, sports, news, private companies and college campuses\u003C\u002Fa\u003E.\"]}]}]}}]}]}","guide":{"__typename":"StorylineGuide","displayName":"The Trump Administration’s First 100 Days","leadIn":null,"sections":[{"__typename":"StorylineGuideSection","items":[{"__typename":"StorylineGuideItem","content":{"__typename":"ListBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"JD Vance:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" A day after the vice president urged German leaders to end their isolation of far-right parties, "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002Fa17adda9-d10b-5bd0-9c21-7d8b24f50ff8","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F15\u002Fworld\u002Feurope\u002Fscholz-vance-munich-germany.html"}],"text":"Chancellor Olaf Scholz rebuked him"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" for supporting a political party that many in the country consider to be "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002Ff8ea6387-6ca8-5cc6-ab8b-ee2210f02f01","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F15\u002Fworld\u002Feurope\u002Fvance-musk-nazis-afd-munich.html"}],"text":"dangerously descended from Nazism"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"In Trump’s Crosshairs:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" Through the first month of his administration, President Trump has carried out "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002Fd6a1fff1-51c7-599f-9eeb-89d4f019c39c","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F17\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-retribution-list.html"}],"text":"a campaign of revenge and retribution"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" that has little analogue in American history."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Firing Spree:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" The first test of President Trump’s power to fire officials "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002Fa616a8b4-ec88-5bd7-8d60-193e56151a20","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F16\u002Fus\u002Ftrump-supreme-court-special-counsel.html"}],"text":"has reached the Supreme Court"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":". This comes after laying off "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F2ff590df-7257-58db-acdb-847c63426d22","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F15\u002Fclimate\u002Fus-forest-service-layoffs-wildfires.html"}],"text":"forest service workers"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" and "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F78b3d5d5-4299-582c-bbf6-90d5bc5d3c18","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F15\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-administration-continues-immigration-court-crackdown-with-judge-firings.html"}],"text":"judges"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":", and "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F5baff2bf-f181-50cc-b39b-0f82bd9dea8d","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F16\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-national-nuclear-security-administration-employees-firings.html"}],"text":"firing (then unfiring) federal employees charged with the readiness of America’s nuclear arsenal"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Obamacare:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" The administration "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F06d0e6ac-62c0-578a-b37b-90457e55c15e","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F14\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-obamacare-navigators.html"}],"text":"said it would drastically cut annual spending on so-called navigator groups"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" that help Americans enroll in health insurance plans, from around $100 million to just $10 million."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Project 2025:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" The Times "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Finteractive\u002Fa19cdbf6-f8f5-5103-9203-e3a5a0a58aa3","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F14\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Fproject-2025-trump-actions.html"}],"text":"found more than 60 major moves made by the administration in its first 23 days"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" that align with proposals in the right-wing blueprint for overhauling the government."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"‘The Boss of Everyone and Everything’: "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"President Trump is increasingly trying to enforce his will "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002Fef85b5b6-c1ce-5d66-9292-4b67b40be058","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2025\u002F02\u002F13\u002Fus\u002Fpolitics\u002Ftrump-influence.html"}],"text":"on areas like the arts, sports, news, private companies and college campuses"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"."}]}]}]}}]}]},"hubAssets":[],"primaryAssets":[{"__typename":"StorylinePrimaryAsset","asset":{"__typename":"Interactive","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Finteractive\u002F7465cb9a-b802-5307-bcda-f95cb8ca3d37","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2025\u002Fus\u002Ftrump-agenda-2025.html"},"displayName":"Tracking the Major Moves","status":null},{"__typename":"StorylinePrimaryAsset","asset":{"__typename":"Interactive","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Finteractive\u002F3f546130-4ea4-5a0e-94d2-781cbef0e161","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2025\u002Fus\u002Ftrump-administration-lawsuits.html"},"displayName":"Lawsuits 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largest one-year drop\u003C\u002Fa\u003E in more than half a century. Even more remarkable: 2024 looks on track for an even greater improvement.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EA Nation of Homebodies:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E A recent study shows Americans are spending notably more time at home, \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2024\u002F10\u002F05\u002Fupshot\u002Famericans-homebodies-alone-census.html\\\"\u003Ea trend that started long before the pandemic\u003C\u002Fa\u003E.\",\"\u003Cstrong\u003EDialect Quiz:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E What does the way you speak say about where you’re from? \u003Ca href=\\\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2014\u002Fupshot\u002Fdialect-quiz-map.html\\\"\u003EAnswer these questions to find out\u003C\u002Fa\u003E.\"]}]}]}}]}]}","guide":{"__typename":"StorylineGuide","displayName":"From The Upshot: What the Data Says","leadIn":"Analysis that explains politics, policy and everyday life.","sections":[{"__typename":"StorylineGuideSection","items":[{"__typename":"StorylineGuideItem","content":{"__typename":"ListBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Year in Review: "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Here are "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Finteractive\u002Fb4c3789d-3dc5-54d3-bbd2-fa3cbc0ea1a4","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002Finteractive\u002F2024\u002F12\u002F30\u002Fupshot\u002Fyear-in-review.html"}],"text":"11 data points and discoveries"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" that surprised us in 2024."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Airlines Are Padding Flight Times: "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"Flying in America has become slower even as "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F22cc4ab1-d187-5271-862b-6421c48d9692","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2024\u002F11\u002F27\u002Fupshot\u002Fairlines-flight-times-padding.html"}],"text":"official statistics have shown improvement"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Decline in Murders:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" Murders declined at a remarkable rate in America in 2023, with statistics showing "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F39348fd4-a758-5bec-bec0-8a2b93511706","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2024\u002F11\u002F02\u002Fupshot\u002Fmurder-decline-pandemic-cities.html"}],"text":"the largest one-year drop"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" in more than half a century. Even more remarkable: 2024 looks on track for an even greater improvement."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"A Nation of Homebodies:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" A recent study shows Americans are spending notably more time at home, "},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"LinkFormat","uri":"nyt:\u002F\u002Farticle\u002F1d686039-d171-568a-91f5-fe8a6aead349","url":"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nytimes.com\u002F2024\u002F10\u002F05\u002Fupshot\u002Famericans-homebodies-alone-census.html"}],"text":"a trend that started long before the pandemic"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":"."}]}]},{"__typename":"ListItemBlock","content":[{"__typename":"ParagraphBlock","content":[{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[{"__typename":"BoldFormat"}],"text":"Dialect Quiz:"},{"__typename":"TextInline","formats":[],"text":" What does the way you speak say about where you’re from? 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