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Wells</div> <div id="sub-popup"> <div class="close"><a href="#">Close</a></div> <h3>Receive our posts via email:</h3> <form action="https://departmentofstatistics.activehosted.com/proc.php" method="post"> <p><label for="email">Your email:</label><span class="input"><input name="email" id="email" class="text" type="text" /></span><span class="clear"></span></p> <p class="submit"><input type="submit" value="Subscribe" /></p> <div style="display:none;"> <input type="hidden" name="u" value="3" /> <input type="hidden" name="f" value="3" /> <input type="hidden" name="s" /> <input type="hidden" name="c" value="0" /> <input type="hidden" name="m" value="0" /> <input type="hidden" name="act" value="sub" /> <input type="hidden" name="v" value="2" /> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div id="body"> <div id="main"> <div id="main-a"> <div class="post"> <div class="date">April 28, 2016</div> <h1 class="title">M膩ori imprisonment statistics: not just age</h1> <div class="author">By <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/thomas-lumley/" title="Posts by Thomas Lumley" class="author url fn" rel="author">Thomas Lumley</a></div> <div class="content"> <p>Jarrod Gilbert had a <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/maori/news/article.cfm?c_id=252&objectid=11629050">piece in the <em>Herald</em></a> about prisons</p> <blockquote><p><em>Fifty per cent of the prison population is Maori. It’s a fact regularly cited in official documents, and from time to time it garners attention in the media. Given they make up 15 per cent of the population, it’s immediately clear that Maori incarceration is highly disproportionate, but it’s not until the numbers are given a greater examination that a more accurate perspective emerges.</em></p></blockquote> <div id="DivContentRect" class="advert"> <p>聽One of the things he didn’t do when giving the numbers a greater examination was standardise for age. 聽M膩ori are, on average, younger than non-M膩ori. Committing the sort of crimes that get you caught and sent to prison is more common among young people, so even if there were no bias聽in the justice system you’d expect a higher proportion of M膩ori out of聽those in聽prison than out of聽the general population. 聽People noticed the lack of age adjustment. There was Twitter.</p> <p>The problem is data availability: prison population by age and ethnicity is not a published table. 聽So, how much will聽the age thing matter? <em>A priori</em> it could matter a lot. It does for some health questions. On the other hand, you’d expect a sociologist who wrote</p> </div> <blockquote><p><em>The numbers seem dystopian, yet they very much reflect the realities of many Maori families and neighbourhoods.</em></p></blockquote> <p>to know what he was talking about, qualitatively. I mean, this isn’t <a href="http://www.phillymag.com/articles/david-brooks-booboos-in-paradise/">David Brooks</a>.</p> <p>It turns out that while you can’t easily get data on ethnicity by age in the prison population, you can get data on age, and that this is enough to get a good idea of what’s going on, using what epidemiologists call “indirect standardisation”.</p> <p>Actually, you聽can’t even easily get data on age, but聽you can get a <a href="http://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/research_and_statistics/quarterly_prison_statistics/PS_March_2016.html#Ages">graph of age</a>:<br /> <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ps_ages_3_16.jpg" rel="attachment wp-att-13122"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-13122" src="https://www.statschat.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ps_ages_3_16-300x183.jpg" alt="ps_ages_3_16" width="300" height="183" srcset="https://www.statschat.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ps_ages_3_16-300x183.jpg 300w, https://www.statschat.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ps_ages_3_16.jpg 634w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p> <p>and I resorted to聽<a href="http://arohatgi.info/WebPlotDigitizer/">software</a> that reconstructs the numbers.</p> <p>Next,聽I downloaded聽<a href="http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/maori-population-estimates-info-releases.aspx">M膩ori population estimates</a> by age and<a href="http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/NationalPopulationEstimates_HOTPAt30Jun15.aspx"> total population estimates</a> by age from StatsNZ, for ages 15-84. 聽The definition of M膩ori won’t be exactly the same as in Dr Gilbert’s data. Also, the age groups aren’t quite right because we’d really like the age when the offence happened, not the current age. 聽The data still should be good enough to see how big the age bias is.聽In these age groups, 13.2% of the population is M膩ori by聽the StatsNZ population estimate definition.</p> <p>We know what proportion of the prison population is in each age group, and we know what the population proportion of M膩ori is in each age group, so we can combine these to get the expected proportion of M膩ori in the prison population accounting for age differences. It’s 14.5%. 聽Now, 14.5% is higher than 13.2%, so the age-adjustment does make聽a difference, and in the expected direction, just not a very <em>big</em> difference.</p> <p>We can also see what happens if we use the M膩ori population proportion from the next-younger five-year group, to allow for offences being committed further in the past. The expected proportion is then 15.3%, which again is higher than 13.2%, but not by very much.聽Accounting for age, it looks as though M膩ori are still more than three times as likely to be in prison as non-M膩ori.</p> <p>You might then say there are lots of other variables to be looked at. But age is special. 聽If it turned out that M膩ori incarceration rates could be explained by poverty, that wouldn’t mean聽their treatment聽by society was fair, it would suggest聽that poverty was <em>how</em> it was unfair. If the rates could be explained by education, that wouldn’t mean聽their treatment聽by society was fair; it would suggest聽education was <em>how</em> it was unfair. But if聽the rates could be explained by age, that <em>would</em> suggest聽the system was fair. They can’t be.</p> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:title="M膩ori imprisonment statistics: not just age" addthis:url="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/"> <a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count" style="opacity:1;"></a> <a class="addthis_button_tweet" tw:via=""></a> </div> <div class="bio"> <div class="bio-image"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/thomas-lumley/"><img src='/avatars/thomaslumley.jpg' class='avatar avatar-50 avatar-default' height='50' width='50' style='width: 50px; height: 50px;' alt='avatar' /></a></div> <div class="bio-right"> <p><a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/showperson?firstname=Thomas&surname=Lumley">Thomas Lumley</a> (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at <a href="http://notstatschat.rbind.io">Biased and Inefficient</a><a href="https://wandering.shop/@tslumley" rel="me"></a> <a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/author/thomas-lumley/">See all posts by Thomas Lumley »</a></p> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <div class="commentsection" id="comments"> <h3>Comments</h3> <ul class="commentlist"> <li> <div class="comment even thread-even depth-1 comment" id="comment-181739"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/d54d189fdb862e4bb9e6a1c8a6723d0a?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Jamie Whyte</div> <p>“If the rates [of incarceration] could be explained by education, that wouldn鈥檛 mean [Maori’s] treatment by society was fair; it would suggest education was how it was unfair.” </p> <p>How would it suggest this? How can you see fairness and its nature in statistics? </p> <p>What do you mean by “treatment by society”? Why is Maori education caused by society but not the average age of Maori? After all, the educational achievement of populations and their average age are correlated.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181739" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="comment byuser comment-author-thomas-lumley bypostauthor odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1 comment" id="comment-181754"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='/avatars/thomaslumley.jpg' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Thomas Lumley</div> <p>Ok. Put it this way:</p> <p>1. There is a correlation between ethnicity and imprisonment</p> <p>2. It is not an outlandish hypothesis that this correlation is caused by current or past discrimination. </p> <p>3. However, if the correlation vanished when conditioning on age this would be strong evidence against the hypothesis and in favour of confounding by age as the cause.</p> <p>4. Having the correlation vanish when conditioning on socio-economic variable is not similarly strong evidence because these variables could easily themselves be affected by current or past discrimination. All it would do is make the hypothesis more specific about how the effects of current or past discrimination were mediated.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181754" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="comment even thread-even depth-1 comment" id="comment-181764"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/a25372af0df1ee95fe7da7c10a6f6866?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Derrilin Webb</div> <p>Good discussion on the age demographics, however I think that the general ‘message’ of the article can also be questioned.</p> <p>Specifically their hypothesis (is as you’ve stated) – There is a correlation between ethnicity and imprisonment (the subtext is that it’s being caused by racism).</p> <p>So they state 51% of the prison population is Maori, whereas 14.9% of NZ’s population identifies as such.</p> <p>They haven’t stated that 3.4% of the prison population is Asian, whereas 11.8% of NZ’s population identifies as such.</p> <p>And 12% of the prison population is Pacific peoples, whereas 7.4% of NZ’s population identifies as such.</p> <p>If they assume that racism accounts for the over representation of Maori, are they also claiming that the ‘system’ is positively racist towards Asians and lets them off crimes they are committing?</p> <p>In addition, there is also the gender demographics where 93.3% of the prison population is Male, whereas 48.7% of NZ’s population identifies as such. And I assume that they are not claiming that the ‘system’ is sexist towards Men, but rather Men are more likely to commit prisonable offenses.</p> <p>While there could be racist elements in the ‘system’ I don’t think that assuming that if there is not a proportional representation across each demographic then that is a sign of racism or sexism is a sound position.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181764" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="comment odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1 comment" id="comment-181772"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/bad6629b98566bc43f61441e9f4ce4ab?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Megan Pledger</div> <p>When 13% of the pop is Maori and 50% of the prison pop is Maori than something is going on that isn’t good. </p> <p>~~<br /> I recall hearing that the number of people on home detention is about 1/3 of the imprisoned population. It could be that more Maori don’t have a suitable place in which to serve home detention so it skews the stats.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181772" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="comment even thread-even depth-1 comment" id="comment-181797"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/7d0dade4c5ee7b3c02c410424728e75a?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">steve curtis</div> <p>Home detention is only for sentences of 2 years or less.<br /> Another factor for the high Maori imprisonment is gang affiliation. Look at gang membership by ethnicity and you will find it too is skewed.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181797" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="comment odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1 comment" id="comment-181813"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/bad6629b98566bc43f61441e9f4ce4ab?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Megan Pledger</div> <p>I’m not sure what your point is.</p> <p>Although the data is from 2006, 87% of sentences were for two years or less.</p> <p>Table 4.3<br /> <a href="http://www.justice.govt.nz/publications/publications-archived/2008/conviction-and-sentencing-of-offenders-in-new-zealand-1997-to-2006/4-custodial-sentences-and-remands" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.justice.govt.nz/publications/publications-archived/2008/conviction-and-sentencing-of-offenders-in-new-zealand-1997-to-2006/4-custodial-sentences-and-remands</a></p> <p>If your family is living in poverty than it actually makes financial sense to go to jail rather than do the time at home. Being at home costs money for food, electricity, water rates etc. In jail all that is paid for.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181813" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <ul class="children"> <li> <div class="comment even depth-2 comment" id="comment-181822"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/7d0dade4c5ee7b3c02c410424728e75a?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">steve curtis</div> <p>Your data maybe but the data here covers all prisoners and is up to date.</p> <p>Is 10 year old data that useful when considering something fairly new like home detention.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181822" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> <li> <div class="comment byuser comment-author-thomas-lumley bypostauthor odd alt depth-2 comment" id="comment-181905"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='/avatars/thomaslumley.jpg' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Thomas Lumley</div> <p>That’s proportion of sentences, not proportion of people in prison, though. The average length of sentence for a person in prison will be longer, because of length-biased sampling.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-181905" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> </ul> </li> <li> <div class="comment even thread-even depth-1 comment" id="comment-182093"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/46d96d442f8367d1062434afcf5a7830?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Matt Haynes</div> <p>slightly off topic but i’d thought I’d ask here. Theres talk of Maori being imprisoned more often than non-maori for the same crime, I’m seeing it a lot lately but I’m not convinced. Are prior convictions being taken into account? If Maori are generally committing more crime than non-pakeha, when they do commit a crime that borders on a prison sentence, won’t the previous convictions be the difference for the judge in handing down a jail term….or not??<br /> Hence an appearance of maori getting sent to jail more often than non-maori for the same offence?</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-182093" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <ul class="children"> <li> <div class="comment byuser comment-author-thomas-lumley bypostauthor odd alt depth-2 comment" id="comment-182108"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='/avatars/thomaslumley.jpg' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Thomas Lumley</div> <p>It’s not as simple as that: if M膩ori are more likely to be arrested, charged, convicted, or imprisoned for the same crime they will then acquire worse criminal records for the next time around. So it’s hard to tell.</p> <p>One independent data point is drug use, where there is survey data that doesn’t come from the judicial system. M膩ori are over-represented in convictions for cannabis use/possession (<a href="https://www.drugfoundation.org.nz/matters-of-substance/cost-of-our-convictions" rel="nofollow">) but the survey data on rates of cannabis use show a much smaller difference.</p> <p>Also, unlike age as an explanation, criminal history wouldn’t mean this <em>wasn’t a problem</em>, it would just change what sort of policies might help.</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-182108" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> <ul class="children"> <li> <div class="comment even depth-3 comment" id="comment-182137"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/46d96d442f8367d1062434afcf5a7830?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth">Matt Haynes</div> <p>Yes, now that I start looking into into it I’d have to agree – it really isn’t that easy!</p> <p>I found this really helpful with some great stats around ethnicity and imprisonment. Unfortunately they didn’t investigate prior convictions in regards to sentencing outcomes</p> <p> <a href="http://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/research_and_statistics/over-representation-of-maori-in-the-criminal-justice-system.html" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/research_and_statistics/over-representation-of-maori-in-the-criminal-justice-system.html</a></p> <p>I did find this statement amongst the report –</p> <p>“Of those who pleaded guilty,<br /> considerably fewer M膩ori were first offenders (17%, vs. 29% of all non-M膩ori). Also, importantly, more M膩ori (37%) than non-M膩ori (31%) were apprehended for offences of medium to high seriousness.”</p> <p>Which certainly suggests their prior offending is influencing their sentencing – but we don’t know by how much. </p> <p>In regards the the parole system and chance of re-offending things get really interesting –</p> <p>“Findings from this recent re-calibration of RoC*RoI have important implications for<br /> the current question of whether disproportionate representation of M膩ori within<br /> criminal justice statistics is reflective of bias. On the basis of the RoC*RoI data it can<br /> reasonably be deduced that, following a re-conviction, the likelihood that an offender<br /> will be sentenced to a term of imprisonment, rather than a community-based sentence, is not significantly affected by the offender鈥檚 ethnicity. That is, in the case of offenders of different ethnicity, where all else is equal (for example, seriousness of current offence, number of previous convictions, number of previous prison terms,etc), equivalent sentencing outcomes can be expected.”</p> <p>Which is pleasing to see in that regard. </p> <p>Looks like there’s some work to do around bias in apprehension, prosecution, home detention and sentencing. Although this report seems to think this is of relatively minor importance to the sheer numbers of Maori being imprisoned. Definitely worth a read</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-182137" class="comment-time">9 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li> <div class="comment odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1 comment" id="comment-187487"> <div class="comment-avatar"><img src='https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/438b95e2a295b6ed7110cb91782420d4?s=36&d=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D36&r=G' class='avatar avatar-36 avatar-default' height='36' width='36' style='width: 36px; height: 36px;' alt='avatar' /></div> <div class="comment-right"> <div class="comcontent"> <div class="comauth"><a href="https://iwinfografix.wordpress.com/" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Atawhai Tibble</a></div> <p>It is likely that age is ONE factor – but not the ONLY or BIGGEST factor. </p> <p>Rather, I suspect it is a combination of a number of factors, which include age, income (or a lack thereof), plus ethnicity, plus bias/racism.</p> <p><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/maori-imprisonment-statistics-not-just-age/#comment-187487" class="comment-time">8 years ago</a> </p> </div> </div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="navigation"> <div class="navleft"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/27/super-18-predictions-for-round-10/" rel="prev">« Previous post</a></div> <div class="navright"><a href="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2016/04/28/marking-beliefs-to-market/" rel="next">Next post »</a></div> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="sidebar"> <div id="search-3" class="section widget_search"><div class="search"> <form method="get" action="https://www.statschat.org.nz"> <div> <div class="text"><input name="s" class="text" type="text" /></div> <input class="submit" type="submit" value="Search" /> </div> </form> </div></div><div 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