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“银十”落空 无缝管市场将何去何从-我的钢铁网
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href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010901-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>无缝管</a>市场价格整体出现明显下滑，据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>数据显示，10月29日108*4.5mm全国无缝管均价为6605元/吨，较本月价格最高点下跌150元/吨。在供需双弱的情况下，无缝管后期市场运行方向如何，笔者将从以下几个方面简单分析。<br /> <strong>一、近期管坯价格明显回落</strong><br /> 截至发稿，山东<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>管坯Φ50-130mm市场价格周环比下跌250元/吨，鲁丽报5400元/吨；江苏热轧管坯Φ50-130mm市场价格周环比下跌280元/吨，东方<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>特钢</a>报5530元/吨。不过，本月依然有部分企业受限电影响，整体管坯供应量有限，只是部分无缝管生产企业也是如此，聊城多数厂家开三停四，对管坯的需求量有所减弱，加之政策面干预对期货市场造成剧烈扰动，导致市场成交欠佳，贸易商心态持续走弱，市场价格大幅下降。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/10/29/181535.png" style="width: 550px; height: 338px;" /></p> <p><strong>二、管厂整体产量有所恢复</strong><br /> 根据Mysteel全国无缝管厂周生产情况调查统计数据显示：本周产量27.12万吨，周环比下降0.91万吨，月同比增加0.59万吨；产能利用率58.93%，周环比下降1.99%，月同比增加1.28%；开工率63.93%，周环比持平，月同比下降4.10%；厂内库存55.24万吨，周环比增加1.39万吨，月同比下降0.53万吨；原料库存28.99万吨，周环比下降1.30万吨，月同比下降5.48万吨。从目前的管厂产量来看，仍处于低位水平，对市场的供应不会出现很大压力，而且产量偏低的同时厂库上升，说明市场拿货积极性较低，市场库存会有一定回落。<br /> <strong>三、无缝管社会库存情况</strong><br /> 据本周全国无缝管库存调研数据显示，全国主要城市无缝管库存69.07万吨，较上周降2.24万吨，月环比降2.98万吨，年同比降8.6万吨。目前商家库存整体处在低位，对贸易商而言，虽然近期无缝管价格有所下跌，但价格仍处在高位，且钢材市场价格近期多有动荡，多数商家以稳健经营为主，备货情绪不高。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" height="358" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/10/29/906c60e74dba4d95ae6f5e2d76f5a021.png" width="550" /></p> <p><strong>四、需求端成交情况</strong><br /> 据Mysteel调研显示，2021年9月全国124家无缝管样本企业成交量总量为365905吨，较去年同期减少27980吨，10月成交量为258519吨，去年同期成交量为302456吨。由此看出，“金九银十”期间，今年的无缝管的需求没有达到去年同期水平，主要原因是受制于钢价保持高位水平，下游终端资金受限，导致需求难以对市场形成有力支持。不过，据了解针对四季度的专项债有望在11月底前全部发放完成，对于基建和房地产行业来说，有加大工程量的空间，对钢材的需求量也会有一定回升。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" height="347" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/10/29/173d6d1e3a054dd788c493b12c7e0eb8.png" width="550" /></p> <p><strong>五、总结</strong><br /> 从目前供需情况来看，第一，前期无缝管原料整体受制于限电影响，整体供应不足，随着双控的放松，已经逐步恢复，而且当前市场情绪偏弱，使得近期管坯价格出现了较大幅度的下降。第二，近期管厂产量依然处于低位，但是由于贸易企业对后市的担忧，整体备货积极性不佳，使得部分管厂库存压力偏大。第三，十月无缝管整体成交出现了较大幅度的减弱，说明下游对于高位价格还是有所“抵触”，但是随着时间的推移，应有的工程项目完工量以及部分地区的任务指标数和专项债的发放叠加之后，可能会加大对下跌之后无缝管的采购。所以，近期无缝管市场可能随着原料价格的回落，有补跌的空间，但是后期需求有望带来支撑之后，再进行反弹也未可知。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：黄子佩 021-26094145 </br> 资讯监督：朱红飞 021-26093705 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div 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