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archive-container"> <div class="row"> <div class="nv-index-posts blog col"> <div class="nv-page-title-wrap nv-big-title" > <div class="nv-page-title "> <h1>Australia Elections Federal</h1> </div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-8211" class="post-8211 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-275 tag-australia tag-election tag-federal tag-margiuns tag-redistribution layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/" rel="bookmark">FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-19T22:20:14+11:00" content="2024-12-19">December 19, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-29T16:22:59+11:00">December 29, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>In a pre-Christmas treat for election nerds, the Australian Electoral Commission is about to publish its estimated seat margins for next year’s Federal election.</p> <p>The 2025 Federal election will be fought on new electoral boundaries following redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. There has also been a redistribution in the Northern Territory though those boundaries are yet to be formally gazetted into place.</p> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/">Earlier this month I published my estimates of post-redistribution margins.</a> These are the margins I recommend the ABC should use at the 2025 election. (The post includes links to an alphabetic list of electorates and all new margins plus a new pendulum.</p> <p>Having been asked my opinion of the AEC’s estimated new margins, I agree with the AEC in 137 of the 150 seats, am in close agreement on another four, but disagree on nine seats to varying degrees.</p> <p>These nine seats are contests that did not finish as traditional two-party preferred races between Labor and the Coalition in 2022, and where there have been significant boundary changes.</p> <p>Inside this post I have published a table that includes my estimated margins for these nine seats, as well as the AEC’s, and two other estimates published by prominent election observers, <a href="https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/pendulumfed2025">Ben Raue of the Tallyroom website</a>, and <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/12/14/weekend-miscellany-duelling-pendulums-tasmanian-seat-polling-and-more-open-thread/">William Bowe of the Pollbludger website</a>.</p> <p>(The AEC’s estimates are now available. <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/media/files/Seat-status-fact-sheet-2025-federal-election.pdf">You can find them at this link.</a>)</p> <p>In some entries in the table, the AEC’s estimates differ from the values that Ben, William and I calculated independently. In other entries the different methodologies adopted mean there are a range of possible estimated margins. </p> <p>In this post I’ll run through detail on where there is disagreement. </p> <p>But I need to make clear I am in no way suggesting there is a problem with how the AEC will conduct the 2025 election.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8202" class="post-8202 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-western-australia tag-australia tag-election-dates tag-elections layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/will-australia-have-its-first-february-election-and-what-about-the-wa-election-date/" rel="bookmark">Will Australia have its first February Election? And what about the WA Election Date?</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-13T13:15:13+11:00" content="2024-12-13">December 13, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-17T14:00:41+11:00">December 17, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Australia is the land of the long summer holiday and woe betide any Prime Minister announcing the start of an election campaign before Australia Day.</p> <p>Australia has never held a Federal election in January or February.</p> <p><iframe title="Federal Elections by Month Held" aria-label="Stacked Columns" id="datawrapper-chart-0xa9k" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0xa9k/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="430" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></p> <p>In 2015 Campbell Newman unexpectedly announced an election date in the first week of the new year with polling day for 31 January. The unexpected announcement was followed by an unexpected defeat for the Newman government with the Premier losing his own seat.</p> <p>Before that, Tasmania's Field minority Labor government announced an election date in early January 1992 with polling for 1 February. After a difficult three years in office, the Field government was defeated and replaced by a majority Liberal government.</p> <p>February elections with campaigning through January used to be common in Western Australia with 9 of the 10 election dates between 1977 and 2005 being in February. This includes two on the first Saturday in February. After the 2008 election was called six months early for September, fixed terms were adopted with elections now held on the second Saturday in March every four years.</p> <p>The next Western Australian election is set for Saturday 8 March. It is a date around which the Albanese government must navigate as options for changing the WA date are complex and require agreement from the Leader of the state Opposition.</p> <p>And neither state nor federal leaders want to annoy voters by forcing them to the polls twice within a month. Given how reliant the Albanese government was on Western Australia to achieve majority government in 2022, the Prime Minister will be unusually attuned to the political mood of the west.</p> <p>In 1983 Malcolm Fraser called a snap double dissolution election for 5 March. Western Australia was already in the middle of a state election campaign and polling days for the two elections were held a fortnight apart.</p> <p>On 19 February 1983, Labor under Brian Burke swept to office. Two weeks later, Labor under Bob Hawke won the Federal election and recorded 55% of the two-party preferred in Western Australia. Labor didn't match that figure again until Anthony Albanese's victory in 2022.</p> <p>In 1993, Labor under Premier Carmen Lawrence lost office at an election on 6 February. The result indicated that Labor's vote was holding up in the west. The next day Prime Minister Paul Keating called a Federal election for 13 March. An 'unlosable' election that Keating was to win against Dr John Hewson.</p> <p>If WA Labor were to have a good state election result on 8 March, the fact that Easter is late in 2025 means the Prime Minister would have time to visit the Governor-General on 9 March and request an election for Saturday 12 April. It would mean abandoning the federal Budget currently scheduled for 25 March.</p> <p>Or what if the Prime Minister were to call the election before Western Australia goes to the polls?</p> <p>As I explain inside the post, that's where options to vary Western Australia's fixed term election date come into play.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/will-australia-have-its-first-february-election-and-what-about-the-wa-election-date/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Will Australia have its first February Election? And what about the WA Election Date?</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8179" class="post-8179 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-275 tag-australia tag-election tag-electoral-pendulum tag-federal tag-redistribution layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/" rel="bookmark">FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-12-04T13:57:19+11:00" content="2024-12-04">December 4, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-12-04T14:27:06+11:00">December 4, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>At the 2025 Federal election, more than half of seats in the House of Representatives will be contested on new electoral boundaries.</p> <p>In this post I summarise the state of play going into the election and provide estimated margins for all seats affected by the redistribution. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/FED2025_ElectorateListing.pdf">You can find a listing of margins for all seats at this link.</a></p> <p>The above document lists traditional two-party preferred margins for all seats, but also alternative two-candidate preferred margins in seats that were not contests between Labor and the Coalition in 2022.</p> <p>There were a record 27 seats in 2022 that did not finish as contests between Labor and Coalition candidates. There is every chance this number could increase in 2025, with analysis of results further complicated by the new electoral boundaries.</p> <p>I’ve tried to create a new electoral pendulum that summarises the party contest for 2025. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/FED2025_PostRedistPendulum.pdf">You can find the pendulum at this link.</a></p> <p>The pendulum groups seats by holding party, simplified to Labor, Coalition and ‘Other’ groupings. Within each party grouping, seats are listed in margin order. Second placed party is also shown for seats that were not Labor versus Coalition contests in 2022.</p> <p>The problem with this layout is that it mixes two-party and two-candidate margins. The ordering allows you to identify marginal seats, but makes it impossible to apply uniform two-party preferred swing to try and predict seat numbers. It is best to skip over the ‘Other’ contest seats in applying two-party swing.</p> <p>On a third page of the pendulum document I’ve added mini-pendulums that set out margins for Labor versus Others and Coalition versus Others contests. For several electorates where Labor and the Greens compete on first preferences to make the final contest versus the Coalition, I have also provided an estimated primary vote margin. </p> <p>There’s more about the redistribution and information on how the new margins have been calculated inside this post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8056" class="post-8056 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-australia-elections-federal category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-australia tag-elections tag-federal tag-northern-territory tag-nt tag-redistributions layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-draft-northern-territory-boundaries/" rel="bookmark">2024 Federal Redistributions – Draft Northern Territory Boundaries</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-18T14:38:50+11:00" content="2024-10-18">October 18, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-22T11:12:34+11:00">November 22, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(<strong>22 November</strong> – no objections were received for the draft boundaries and they have been adopted as final and will be used at the 2025 Federal election.)</p> <p>The final electoral jigsaw piece has been put in place for next year’s Federal election.</p> <p>Redistributions have been finalised for NSW, WA and Victoria. Today has seen the release of draft boundaries for the Northern Territory.</p> <p>These draft boundaries are now open for public comment, but as the Redistribution Commissioner’s proposal is the same as every submission suggested, the final stage of the redistribution will simply rubber stamp the draft proposal.</p> <p>If you want to make a submission or read more detail on the redistribution, you can do so through the <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/2024/nt/proposed-redistribution/">AEC’s NT Redistribution site</a>.</p> <p>In this post I’ll just give a brief summary of the change and estimated new margins for Lingiari and Solomon.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-draft-northern-territory-boundaries/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2024 Federal Redistributions – Draft Northern Territory Boundaries</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7997" class="post-7997 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-218 tag-election tag-new-south-wales tag-north-sydney tag-nsw tag-redistribution layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-nsw-released/" rel="bookmark">2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for NSW Released</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-09-12T11:10:46+10:00" content="2024-09-12">September 12, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-02-16T17:01:06+11:00">February 16, 2025</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(<strong>22 November</strong> – I’ve been through and finalised the split and merged SA1s to produce my final version of the margins. They have been incorporated into the table inside the post.)</p> <p>(UPDATE – the final boundaries have been released confirming the abolition of North Sydney. There are some very minor changes of at most 0.1% and these have been updated in the table.)</p> <p>(UPDATE – Friday 13 September – a discrepancy where the new electorate file coded Mcmahon rather than McMahon caused an error in my calculations. The significant changes are that Blaxland drops back from 13.9% to 13.1% while the new margin for McMahon is now 10.5% as opposed to the original estimate of 13.1%. There is also a minor adjustment for Fowler.</p> <p>On Thursday 12 September, the Redistribution Committee for New South Wales released the final version of the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in June and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.</p> <p>The redistribution has taken place to decrease the number of NSW federal divisions from 47 to 46. The final boundaries have confirmed the abolition of the Independent held seat of North Sydney. </p> <p>The draft boundaries were released when I was overseas so this post is my first analysis of the draft boundaries. Today’s release includes a <del datetime="2024-09-12T01:41:00+00:00">string</del> small number of minor adjustments to the draft boundaries, none of which alter the analysis in this post. I will make minor adjustments to this post once the AEC publishes the datafiles required for calculations, sometime next month.</p> <p>Re-calculating margins is a complex task of processing AEC polling place data files on where people voted in 2022 and comparing them with Bureau of Statistics files listing the low level SA1 (Statistical Area 1) composition of new electorates. Complicating the process is a re-numbering of many SA1s between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses. The 2022 AEC files used the old SA1 identifiers and the new electorate files use the new SA1 identifier. This has required a lot of fiddling with data to resolve inconsistencies between SA1 identifiers. Not all of the SA1 inconsistencies could be resolved but I do not believe they significantly affect any calculations.</p> <p>The AEC will release its own versions of new margins next year as the election approaches. The AEC has many more resources to resolve SA1 inconsistencies and splits than are available to me.</p> <h4>Change in Seat Numbers</h4> <table class="AGTable"> <caption><strong>Change in Seats Held by Party</strong></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="left"></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblue">LIB</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptygreen">NAT</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">IND</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">Total</span></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left">Old boundaries </td> <td class="centre">26</td> <td class="centre">9</td> <td class="centre">7</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">5</td> <td class="centre">47</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">New boundaries </td> <td class="centre">25</td> <td class="centre">10</td> <td class="centre">7</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">4</td> <td class="centre">46</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>Based on traditional two-party preferred results, including for the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent held seats, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –</p> <ul> <li><strong>Old Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 27, Coalition 20 (Liberal 13, National 7)</li> <li><strong>New Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 26, Coalition 20 (Liberal 13, National 7)</li> </ul> <p>The changes are brought about by the abolition of Independent-held <strong>North Sydney</strong>, a flow on impact of which is to flip neighbouring <strong>Bennelong</strong> from being a marginal Labor seat to as very marginal Liberal seat.</p> <p>The three-way carve up of North Sydney along council boundaries is shown in the map below.</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.abc.net.au/res/sites/news-projects/interactive-electorateboundaries-2/5.0.0/?kml=/dat/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/kml/RedistNorthSydney.kml" width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <p>The main political implications of the changes are –</p> <ul> <li>A relative decline in enrolment on Sydney’s lower north shore and northern beaches suburbs required a seat to be abolished north of the harbour, and as predicted before the process began, <strong>North Sydney</strong> has been abolished and divided between the re-drawn seats of <strong>Bennelong</strong>, <strong>Bradfield</strong> and <strong>Warringah</strong>.</li> <li>There was also a shortfall south of the harbour but this has been fixed by a shift west and south-west of all boundaries to absorb a significant surplus of enrolments in south-west Sydney.</li> <li>The Liberal electorate of <strong>Hume</strong> has also become an urban seat, shedding almost of all of its rural areas along the Hume Highway north of the ACT. It is now based on Camden in Sydney’s outer south-west fringe, along with western Parts of Liverpool Council and semi-rural Wollondilly Shire to the south. Geographically the changes are massive but the Liberal margin declines only slightly, from 7.7% to 6.9%.</li> <li>The abolition of North Sydney is bad new for Independent Kylea Tink, but neighbouring Independents Sophie Scamps in <strong>Mackellar</strong> and Zali Staggall in <strong>Warringah</strong> retain their margins. There are few changes to the boundaries the western Sydney seat of <strong>Fowler</strong> won by Independent Dai Le in 2022.</li> <li>In <strong>Wentworth</strong>, Independent Allegra Spender is significantly strengthened. Wentworth is a traditional Liberal seat but surrounding by Labor voting territory. By expanding into neighbouring Sydney and Kingsford Smith, Wentworth’s underlying Liberal 2-party preferred margin declines from 5.9% to 1.2%. Estimating a new Independent margin for the areas added to the seat is difficult, but a best estimate is that the addition of areas with weaker Liberal support boosts the Independent margin from 4.2% to 6.6%.</li> <li>In <strong>Bradfield</strong>, Liberal MP Paul Fletcher faced a significant Independent challenge in 2022 that reduced his margin to just 4.2% versus an Independent. By shifting south and picking up parts of North Sydney, his margin is reduced to 2.5%. His Independent challenger from 2022, Nicolette Boele, has already announced she will contest the next election. It is unclear whether Kylea Tink will also contest Bradfield if the final boundaries confirm the abolition of her seat.</li> <li>As already mentions, the abolition of North Sydney turns <strong>Bennelong</strong> from a marginal Labor seat to a very marginal Liberal sea.</li> <li>By losing its Labor-voting southern end and extending north of Windsor Road, Michelle Rowland’s Labor seat of <strong>Greenway</strong> has its margin cut from 11.5% to an estimated 8.1%. As has been shown in the past, if the Liberal Party can select a good candidate, Greenway is a more marginal seat than it often appears on paper.</li> <li>The Liberal margin for <strong>Hughes</strong> is cut from 7.0% to 3.6% as it loses Liberal voting areas near Sutherland and is pushed west beyond the Georges River to gain Labor voting territory from Weriwa and Macarthur. <del datetime="2024-09-12T01:41:00+00:00">(There may changes to the construction of Hughes in the final boundaries.)</del> There were no changes with the final boundaries. </li> <li>In the Hunter valley, the transfer for Kurri Kurri strengthens Labor in <strong>Hunter</strong> but weakens its position in <strong>Paterson</strong>.</li> <li>The National margin in <strong>Riverina</strong> declines from 14.8% to a still safe 9.7% after picking up parts of Eden-Monaro and Hume.</li> </ul> <p>The new margin estimates in this post have not taken into account the adjustments included in the final boundaries. However, the list of adjustments released seem unlikely to change the estimated margins below.</p> <p>Seat tables can be found inside the post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-nsw-released/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for NSW Released</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7973" class="post-7973 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-218 tag-election tag-federal tag-redistribution tag-victoria layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-victoria-released/" rel="bookmark">2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for Victoria Released</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-09-05T11:58:30+10:00" content="2024-09-05">September 5, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-22T12:11:05+11:00">November 22, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(<strong>20 November</strong> – the tables in this post have been updated taking account of the final boundaries and incorporating split and merged SA1s. The complex way that final descriptions are released has made it difficult for me to update the transfers listed in the table but the margins have been updated.)</p> <p>(Updated Friday 6 September with maps and more details on Chisholm, Deakin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Melbourne, Menzies and Wills. Estimated margins for Independent contests will be added later today..)</p> <p>On Thursday 5 September the Redistribution Committee for Victoria released the fin al version of the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.</p> <p>The redistribution has taken place to decrease the number of Victorian federal divisions from 39 to 38. The final boundaries have confirmed the abolition of the Labor seat of seat of Higgins in inner-eastern Melbourne. </p> <p>Today’s release has included a string of minor adjustments to the draft boundaries, none of which appear significant to me. The release does not include the datafiles that permit new margins to be calculated. I won’t update the margins shown inside this post until the datafiles are released.</p> <p>Re-calculating margins is a complex task of processing AEC polling place data files on where people voted in 2022 and comparing them with Bureau of Statistics files listing the low level SA1 (Statistical Area 1) composition of new electorates. Complicating the process is a re-numbering of many SA1s between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses. The 2022 AEC files used the old SA1 identifiers and the new electorate files use the new SA1 identifier. This has required a lot of fiddling with data to resolve inconsistencies between SA1 identifiers.</p> <p>In my analysis of the draft boundaries in May I had to manually resolve these problems. I’ve managed to code the corrections this time though there are still a few inconsistencies that can’t be resolved by me. A number of the margins in this post have altered since May using the better correction method. The AEC will eventually release their own versions of new margins in the new year and they have a lot more resources than me to resolve SA1 inconsistencies and splits.</p> <p>What this post does not yet do is take into account the adjustments in the final release of boundaries. I can’t do these calculations until the AEC release the maps and data files.</p> <p>I have also not added estimated margins for a couple of Independent seats. That requires some manual re-calculations that I will do later today.</p> <h4>Change in Seat Numbers</h4> <table class="AGTable"> <caption><strong>Change in Seats Held by Party</strong></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="left"></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblue">LIB</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptygreen">NAT</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">IND</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">Total</span></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left">Old boundaries </td> <td class="centre">24</td> <td class="centre">8</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">39</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">New boundaries </td> <td class="centre">24</td> <td class="centre">7</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">38</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">With by-elections </td> <td class="centre">25</td> <td class="centre">6</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">38</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p class="footnote"><strong>Note:</strong> By-election line takes account of Labor winning Aston from the Liberal Party at an April 2023 by-election. Table does not take account of the decision by Monash MHR Russell Broadbent to resign from the Liberal Party and become an Independent.</p> <p>Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent and Greens held seat, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –</p> <ul> <li><strong>Old Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 25, Coalition 14 (Liberal 11, National 3)</li> <li><strong>New Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 25, Coalition 13 (Liberal 10, National 3)</li> <li><strong>Including by-elections:</strong> Labor 26, Coalition 12 (Liberal 9, National 3)</li> </ul> <p>The main political implications of the changes are –</p> <ul> <li>The Labor seat of Higgins is abolished.</li> <li>Labor’s position in Wills is significantly weakened with the inclusion of strong Greens voting areas around Brunswick East, Carlton North and Fitzroy North. The Labor margin versus the Greens is reduced from 8.6% to an estimated 4.6%.</li> <li>The transfer of strong Labor voting areas to Menzies, replaced by marginal Liberal country from Higgins and Kooyong, weakens Labor’s position in Chisholm, an estimated halving of the Labor margin from 6.4% to 3.2%.</li> <li>The Liberal marginal seats of Deakin and Menzies in eastern Melbourne become even more marginal with Menzies flipping to become a notional Labor seat.</li> <li>The strongest Liberal voting parts of Higgins have been transferred to Kooyong, held by Independent MP Dr Monique Ryan. Estimating support for an Independent in areas they did not contest at the last election, but my best estimate is that Ryan’s margin is reduced from 2.9% to 1.8%.</li> <li>The boundary changes for Goldstein are estimated to increase the margin of Independent Zoe Daniel from 2.9% to 3.1%.</li> </ul> <p>None of the estimates in this post take account of the changes announced with the release of the final boundaries. I do not believe that any of the final changes have much impact on marginal seats.</p> <p>Seat tables can be found inside the post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-victoria-released/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for Victoria Released</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7953" class="post-7953 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-218 tag-election tag-federal tag-redistribution tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-federal-redistribution-final-boundaries-for-western-australia-released/" rel="bookmark">2024 Federal Redistribution – Final Boundaries for Western Australia Released</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-09-05T11:17:00+10:00" content="2024-09-05">September 5, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-22T11:07:48+11:00">November 22, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><strong>Update Tuesday 24 September</strong> – the redistribution has been finalised and all maps and data released.</p> <p><strong>Update Friday 22 November</strong> – I took a fine toothed comb to SA1s that were split or merged in the redistribution and have re-calculated margins. No major changes and the final estimates have been included in the table.</p> <p>On Thursday 5 September, the Redistribution Committee for Western Australia released the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and will be used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.</p> <p>The redistribution has taken place to increase the number of WA federal divisions from 15 to 16.</p> <p>The original post follows.</p> <p>A new division called Bullwinkel has been created covering Perth’s outer east and the rural Avon Valley to the east. A map of the new electorate is included in this post. The name Bullwinkel honours Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.</p> <p>The final boundaries have been released and involve only minor changes. These are –</p> <ul> <li>Waroona Shire remains in Canning where the draft moved it into Forrest.</li> <li>The suburb of Malaga remains in Cowan having originally been proposed for transfer to Hasluck.</li> <li>Part of Kardinya remains in Fremantle after having been proposed for transfer to Tangney.</li> <li>Part of Leeming proposed to be in Fremantle is now in Tangney.</li> </ul> <p>These are very minor changes and the data files required to re-calculate margins will not be available for several weeks. I will update the post when they are available.</p> <p>At this state the page and its included tables reflect the draft boundaries released earlier this year. I have noted where there are changes but doubt these will have any significant impact on the estimated new margins shown.</p> <p><strong>The political implications of the boundaries are –</strong></p> <ul> <li>The new seat of Bullwinkel is a notional Labor seat using the unusually good Labor results at the 2022 federal election. At a more normal election, and without a sitting member, Bullwinkel will be very difficult seat for Labor to notionally retain.</li> <li>The creation of Bullwinkel results in a significant strengthening of Labor’s position in Hasluck, the Labor margin increasing from 6.0% to 10.0%.</li> <li>Curtin sees only a minor change to boundaries meaning the redistribution has no impact on Liberal attempts to defeat Independent Kate Chaney.</li> <li>Labor’s other marginal seats see only minor changes, Pearce’s Labor margin now 8.8%, Swan 9.4% and Tangney 2.9%.</li> <li>On paper the Liberal margin in Canning is reduced to 1.1% but sitting MP Andrew Hastie would only be in trouble if Labor had an increase in its vote compared to 2022, a scenario that does not seem likely.</li> <li>Moore remains a marginal seat, but less important than the redistribution is Ian Goodenough being replaced as Liberal candidate by Vince Connelly. If Goodenough were to re-contest as an Independent or National Party (one rumour) candidate, it would create a more complex contest.</li> </ul> <table class="AGTable"> <caption><strong>Change in Seats Held by Party</strong></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="left"></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyred">Labor</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblue">Liberal</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">Independent</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">Total</span></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left">Old boundaries </td> <td class="centre">9</td> <td class="centre">5</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">15</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">New boundaries </td> <td class="centre">10</td> <td class="centre">5</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">16</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings is –</p> <ul> <li><strong>Old Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 9, Liberal 6</li> <li><strong>New Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 10, Liberal 6</li> </ul> <p>Tables summarising the impact of the redistribution on each seat is included inside the post.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-federal-redistribution-final-boundaries-for-western-australia-released/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2024 Federal Redistribution – Final Boundaries for Western Australia Released</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7729" class="post-7729 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-apportionments category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-218 tag-federal tag-house tag-redistribution tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/proposed-federal-electoral-boundaries-released-for-western-australia/" rel="bookmark">Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-05-31T12:32:33+10:00" content="2024-05-31">May 31, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-05-31T19:49:31+10:00">May 31, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Western Australia on Friday, the time provisionally set for lunchtime AEST. Western Australia will be gaining a seat in the redistribution, the number of members to be elected at the next election increased from 15 to 16 seats.</p> <p>Once the draft boundaries are released I’ll give a brief comment on the newly created seat, but it will take time and some serious number crunching to work out the full consequences of the new boundaries.</p> <p>I’ve now double checked every discrepancy and my figures are final.</p> <p>The major changes are that the new seat of Bullwinkel is a marginal Labor seat, Hasluck is made safer for Labor and Canning is made more marginal for the Liberal Party.</p> <p>The new electorate is named in honour of Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.</p> <p>The table below of seats held by party will be updated during my various parses of the data.</p> <table class="AGTable"> <caption><strong>Change in Seats Held by Party</strong></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="left"></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyred">Labor</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblue">Liberal</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">Independent</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">Total</span></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left">Old boundaries </td> <td class="centre">9</td> <td class="centre">5</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">15</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">New boundaries </td> <td class="centre">10</td> <td class="centre">5</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">16</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –</p> <ul> <li><strong>Old Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 9, Liberal 6</li> <li><strong>New Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 10, Liberal 6</li> </ul> <p>A seat table comparing margins can be found inside the post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/proposed-federal-electoral-boundaries-released-for-western-australia/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7739" class="post-7739 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-218 tag-federal tag-house tag-redistribution tag-victoria layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/proposed-federal-boundaries-released-for-victoria/" rel="bookmark">Proposed Federal Boundaries Released for Victoria</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-05-31T12:29:24+10:00" content="2024-05-31">May 31, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-06-02T14:07:01+10:00">June 2, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Victoria today, the time set as some time between 12:30 and 2:30. Victoria will be losing a seat in the redistribution, the number of members to be elected reduced from 39 to 38 seats.</p> <p>Once the draft boundaries are released I’ll give a brief comment on which seat has been abolished, but it will take time and some serious number crunching to work out the full consequences of the new boundaries.</p> <p><strong>Update 7pm Friday</strong> After fixing problems with a changed numbering system for SA1s, I’ve tidied all the estimates. The summary is that the Labor seat of Higgins is abolished but the Liberal seat of Menzies becomes a marginal Labor seat. The Liberal seat of Deakin is weakened for the Liberal Party and Wills is weakened for Labor in a contest versus the Greens.</p> <p><del datetime="2024-06-01T04:18:38+00:00">The Greens versus Labor margin for Melbourne is not right but I don’t have time work out the problem tonight</del>. A better estimated margin has now been calculated for Melbourne. Other independent contests now have better estimated margins.</p> <p><strong>** Sunday update on Kooyong</strong> The re-drawn seat of Kooyong includes around 30,000 voters from the abolished seat of Higgins. This is around a quarter of the voters in the re-drawn Kooyong. This is an area where Independent Monique Ryan was not on the ballot paper in 2022 and if you do a straight vote transfer and then apply preferences, you get an Independent v Liberal margin of 0.8%, down from 2.9%. This is not a realistic margin as clearly Monique Ryan will attract votes in the area added from Higgins.</p> <p>Compared to the 2022 Liberal 2PP margin versus Labor, the new boundaries produces a slight dip in the Liberal margin versus Labor. I suspect that movement slightly improves Ryan’s margin versus the Liberal Party, but there is no way to calculate a margin without coming up with an estimate of how Ryan will poll in the transferred parts of Higgins where she was not on the ballot paper in 2022.</p> <p>I’ve removed my earlier margin from the table below because it is being quoted as suggesting the Liberal position in Kooyong has been significantly improved. That is not my opinion. </p> <p><strong>** Sunday update on Goldstein</strong> I’ve removed the estimated Independent margin for Goldstein for the same reasons. Transferring votes and re-calculating preferences gives a new Independent v Liberal margin of 2.7%, down from 2.9% on the old boundaries. The changes to Goldstein are smaller than for Kooyong. The Liberal 2PP margin dips on the new boundaries and I think the same may apply to the Independent versus Liberal margin. </p> <h4>Change in Seat Numbers</h4> <p>The table below of seats held by party will be updated during my various parses of the data.</p> <table class="AGTable"> <caption><strong>Change in Seats Held by Party</strong></caption> <thead> <tr> <th class="left"></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblue">LIB</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptygreen">NAT</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">IND</span></th> <th class="centre"><span class="ptyblack">Total</span></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left">Old boundaries </td> <td class="centre">24</td> <td class="centre">8</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">39</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">New boundaries </td> <td class="centre">24</td> <td class="centre">7</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">38</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">With by-elections </td> <td class="centre">25</td> <td class="centre">6</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">3</td> <td class="centre">38</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p class="footnote"><strong>Note:</strong> By-election line takes account of Labor winning Aston from the Liberal Party at an April 2023 by-election. Table does not take account of the decision by Monash MHR Russell Broadbent to resign from the Liberal Party and become an Independent.</p> <p>Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent and Greens held seat, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –</p> <ul> <li><strong>Old Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 25, Coalition 14 (Liberal 11, National 3)</li> <li><strong>New Boundaries 2PP:</strong> Labor 25, Coalition 13 (Liberal 10, National 3)</li> <li><strong>Including by-elections:</strong> Labor 26, Coalition 12 (Liberal 9, National 3)</li> </ul> <p>Seat tables can be found inside the post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/proposed-federal-boundaries-released-for-victoria/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Proposed Federal Boundaries Released for Victoria</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7721" class="post-7721 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-federal-elections category-senate tag-australia tag-election-date tag-elections tag-speculation layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/why-there-wont-be-an-early-election-in-2024/" rel="bookmark">Why There Won’t be an Early Federal Election in 2024</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-05-20T23:16:38+10:00" content="2024-05-20">May 20, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-08-14T11:09:17+10:00">August 14, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Early election speculation is like some creature from an Eagles song. You can stab it with your steely knives but you just can’t kill the beast.</p> <p>In the first half of 2023, when the Albanese government was ahead in all polls and looking assured in its control of the levers of power, talk of an early election in late 2024 was plausible.</p> <p>Redistributions along with local, state and territory elections made timing difficult, but there were narrow windows for an early election either side of the Queensland election in October 2024.</p> <p>But that window appears to have been firmly closed. The failed ‘Voice’ referendum, further rises in interest rates and growing cost of living pressures have damaged the government’s standing. The government has looked less assured in steering the ship of state.</p> <p>Yet last week there were new stories emanating from Queensland about the Coalition’s need to be prepared for an election this year.</p> <p>In my opinion the prospects for an election in late 2024 have evaporated.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/why-there-wont-be-an-early-election-in-2024/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Why There Won’t be an Early Federal Election in 2024</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div><ul class='page-numbers'> <li><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/australia-elections-federal/page/2/">2</a></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/australia-elections-federal/page/3/">3</a></li> <li><span class="page-numbers dots">…</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" 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