Philippines, Inc. wary of Duterte as next president- Nikkei Asian Review

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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029/mailto:/?subject=Philippines%2C%20Inc.%20wary%20of%20Duterte%20as%20next%20president&body=Here%20is%20something%20from%20Nikkei%20Asian%20Review%20that%20might%20interest%20you%3A%0D%0APhilippines%2C%20Inc.%20wary%20of%20Duterte%20as%20next%20president%0D%0Ahttp://s.nikkei.com/1SV33ob">Mail</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="article-box"> <div class="detail"> <div class="feature-article"> <div class="date-area">May 3, 2016 12:45 am JST</div> <h1 class="title">Philippines, Inc. wary of Duterte as next president</h1> <p>CLIFF VENZON, Nikkei staff writer</p> </div> <img src="/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201605/20160501/20160505-duterte-ayala/4438812-1-eng-GB/20160505-Duterte-Ayala_article_main_image.jpg" width="580" alt=""/> <p class="img-caption"> Philippine presidential front-runner Rodrigo Duterte, right, greets business leader Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala and others at the Makati Business Club on April 27. <span class="img-credit"> © Reuters </span> </p> </div> </div> <div class="article-box detail"> <div class="wysiwyg_area"> <div class="articleBodyText"> <p>MANILA -- <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Features/Philippine-presidential-election/Duterte-fails-to-calm-nervous-investors" target="_blank">Rodrigo Duterte</a>, the tough-talking front-runner in the Philippine presidential election on May 9, looked round the gilded chamber in the Manila Peninsula where 400 of the country's top business people had come to see him, and said: "Relax. I am not the man I am portrayed to be by some."</p><p>An amused ripple went through the audience mostly dressed in business suits or crisp white traditional<i> barongs</i>. The encounter had been set for high noon, but started at half past the hour. Duterte's listeners included some of the most powerful corporate figures in the Philippines, including Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, chairman of <a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05FN96-E" target="_self" alt="05FN96-E" class="mwMoTrg">Ayala Corp.</a>, and Manuel Pangilinan, chairman of <a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/06PZ2D-E" target="_blank" alt="06PZ2D-E" class="mwMoTrg">Metro Pacific Investments</a> and <a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/000TCJ-E" target="_self" alt="000TCJ-E" class="mwMoTrg">Philippine Long Distance Telephone</a>.</p><div class="page_limit free"></div><div class="page_limit"></div><p>They had come to the Presidential Dialogues, a pre-election talk series sponsored by the influential Makati Business Club (MBC) and the Management Association of the Philippines, hoping to get a feel for the man most likely soon to replace President Benigno Aquino.</p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114333"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505indicators/4432290-2-eng-GB/20160505indicators_small_230.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114333"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505indicators/4432290-2-eng-GB/20160505indicators_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>Aquino is required by a constitutional amendment put in place by his mother, President Corazon Aquino, during the heady People Power years of the mid-1980s, to step down after a single six-year term. Perhaps ironically, the intention then was that nobody like Ferdinand Marcos should ever again be allowed to cling to the presidency indefinitely.</p><p>Duterte, the crime-busting mayor of Davao in the south, has many nicknames. One is Duterte Harry after the celebrated Clint Eastwood character -- the bad cop prepared to do jobs good cops won't.</p><p>The city mayor's pithy, no-nonsense approach has struck a chord with ordinary Filipinos wary of high crime, uncertain prospects, and the self-interested business interests Aquino has generally pleased. Duterte has been steadily pulling ahead in the polls, with Pulse Asia giving him 33% in mid-April, well ahead of his nearest rival Grace Poe, an independent senator with 22%.</p><p>The meeting at the Peninsula had been much anticipated. Duterte is less well known in Manila, certainly to its powerful business community. The turnout was bigger than for Grace Poe and Mar Roxas of the ruling Liberal Party. A fourth candidate, Vice President Jejomar Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance, chose not to take up his invitation.</p><p>MBC Executive Director Peter Perfecto told the Nikkei Asian Review before the event that many in the audience had come to "clarify some issues."</p><p>"I think the past six years have been good for businesses, and they would like to see that continue," said Perfecto. As it turned out, Duterte dodged the bullets. He had been invited to lay out his economic agenda, but spent a lot of time on his favorite topic: the war on crime and drugs.</p><p>"Peace and order is the foundation in which the progress can be made -- that is my article of faith," said Duterte. The mayor wore a dark shirt untucked with the sleeves rolled up. ''I will use the military and the police to go out and arrest them," he said, "and if they offer violent resistance, I will simply say: 'Kill them all to end the problem.'"</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114394"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505psei/4434659-2-eng-GB/20160505PSEi_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114394"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505psei/4434659-2-eng-GB/20160505PSEi_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><div class="page_break auto free"></div><div class="page_break auto"></div><p>Duterte was vaguer on economics. He said he wants more funding for farmers, and will build more mass transit systems, but with so much talk on social issues time was short for quizzing the mayor on high finance. Most of the business people who came to put their minds at rest over a potentially troubling leadership change emerged little the wiser.</p><p>The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) drew its own conclusions. On Friday, the index slid for the sixth consecutive day to end at 7,159.29. "With elections coming closer, investors are also being cautious and opted to wait in the sidelines until winners are determined on May 9," Unicapital Securities told clients in an April 29 note.  </p><p>With Duterte's rise, businessmen have wanted reassurances about continuity given the national penchant for reboots and complete shutdowns of the initiatives of prior administrations. President Aquino's own government suspended a nearly $400-million flood-control project from President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's time that had been awarded to a Belgian contractor, and last year turned around a major railway project from the same era. Aquino said projects he intervened on were graft-ridden or of questionable national benefit.  </p><p>"We prefer status quo," said Francisco Suarez, chief financial officer of conglomerate <a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/07MVF0-E" target="_self" alt="07MVF0-E" class="mwMoTrg">GT Capital Holdings</a>. "After all, we benefited from the economic growth." </p><p>Suarez's sentiments are common in the Philippine corporate world. The economy racked up average annual growth of a little over 6% from 2010 to 2015, the best performance in four decades.</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114392"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505netincome/4434637-2-eng-GB/20160505NetIncome_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114392"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505netincome/4434637-2-eng-GB/20160505NetIncome_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>According to PSE Research, the total earnings of listed companies ballooned to 582.50 billion pesos in 2014 from 440.16 billion pesos in 2010, and market capitalization expanded by 52% to 13.47 trillion pesos in the same period.</p><p><b>Aquino's corporate Philippines</b></p><p>In the last five years, <a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HXC6-E" target="_self" alt="05HXC6-E" class="mwMoTrg">SM Prime Holdings</a><b><a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/06SPHR-E" target="_self" alt="06SPHR-E" class="mwMoTrg">,</a> </b>a unit of <a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05JVJG-E" target="_self" alt="05JVJG-E" class="mwMoTrg">SM Investments</a>, a leader in property development, retail and banking, opened 17 shopping centers and had 57 malls in total by the end of April. </p><p>"Regardless of who will be the next president, we will be continuing our plans for the next five years," Teresita Sy-Coson, vice chair of SM Investments said on the panel of a Credit Suisse conference in Hong Kong in early April. Her words carry real weight. SM Investments owns <a href="/web/20160505040029/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/06SPHR-E" target="_self" alt="06SPHR-E" class="mwMoTrg">BDO Unibank</a>, the largest lender by<b> </b>assets in the Philippines, which doubled its loans to 1.27 trillion pesos in the five years to 2015. That was on the back of a boom with rising demand for personal and corporate credit. The central bank encouraged financial inclusivity by easing requirements for setting up bank accounts, and permitting third parties to find new bank customers. Deposits rose to 1.66 trillion pesos from 783 billion pesos, and assets doubled to 2.03 trillion pesos.</p><p>GT Capital, a diversified conglomerate that distributes Toyota vehicles, benefited from higher disposable incomes and low interest rates. Car sales hit record levels. Last year, nearly 329,000 cars and trucks were sold in the Philippines, up 22% year on year -- at a time when sales in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand were slumping.</p><p>Ayala Corp., controlled by the Filipino-Spanish Zobel business dynasty, is the oldest conglomerate in the Philippines.  Ayala's earnings doubled to 22.3 billion pesos under Aquino with windfalls in its real estate, banking and telecommunications units. Chairman Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala wants to double earnings again by 2020.</p><p>"You will have some better leaders, some worse ones," he said earlier this month. "Under the current leadership, we have evolved as a country tremendously and moved forward. I don't see the clock going backward. The trend will move us forward, and leadership can move us faster or slower, but we will move forward."</p><p>The Aquino administration's economic competence has been widely praised.</p><p>According to the International Monetary Fund, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew nearly 50% from 2010. Only Vietnam has done better in the region.     </p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114317"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505southeastasia/4431901-2-eng-GB/20160505SoutheastAsia_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114317"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505southeastasia/4431901-2-eng-GB/20160505SoutheastAsia_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>The Aquino administration has won plaudits for tackling corruption and maintaining political stability.</p><p>The push on graft lifted the Philippines in Transparency International's corruption perception index to 95 in 2015 from 134 in 2010. Governance reforms have also borne fruit. Philippine competitiveness improved to 47 from 88 in the same period, according to the World Economic Forum, and this has been pitched strongly to foreign investors.</p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114319"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505gdppercapita/4431923-2-eng-GB/20160505GDPperCapita_small_250.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114319"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505gdppercapita/4431923-2-eng-GB/20160505GDPperCapita_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>Investment ratings have gone up. Moody's gave the country Baa 2. This is one notch above investment grade, where Indonesia stands, but still three notches below Malaysia's A3.</p><p>With its newly groomed international image, the Philippines became a darling of investors. Foreign direct investment inflows jumped to $6.2 billion in 2014 from $1 billion in 2010, according to the World Bank.</p><p>Aquino used his popularity to push critical legal reforms that had previously failed to overcome intense lobbying. These included amendments to excise tax, which generated around 50 billion pesos for health care.</p><p>As existing industries did better, new ones blossomed. Business process outsourcing has attracted foreign investment, now generates over $21 billion annually, and provides over a million relatively high-paying jobs. It is a second pillar in the economy to remittances from Filipinos working overseas who send home over $25 billion each year. HSBC expects BPO revenues to surpass remittances next year.</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114320"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505unemployment/4431934-2-eng-GB/20160505unemployment_small_250.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114320"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505unemployment/4431934-2-eng-GB/20160505unemployment_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p><b>Presidential aspirants</b></p><p>All the presidential candidates have promised to build on Aquino's wins, but businesses remain hungry for reassurance. Duterte, 71, is a former prosecutor who shuns political correctness. But he is perceived as a decisive leader who refuses to be shackled by rules and regulations in his crusade on crime. He believes a more federal government will improve inclusivity, and could halt the decades-old insurgency in the southern province of Mindanao, a region rich in resources but undeveloped.</p><p>Duterte's obsession with law and order plays well to the despair ordinary Filipinos often feel in day-to-day life but can leave investors querulous. </p><div class="object-center"> <div class="object-center fb"> <div class="object-center"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114328"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505candidates/4432164-6-eng-GB/20160505Candidates_large_580.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114328"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505candidates/4432164-6-eng-GB/20160505Candidates_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>Grace Poe, 47, Duterte's closest rival, is a neophyte senator with slender credentials, but she does take advice from seasoned economists. Her promise to open up the economy to foreign investors plays well in the business community. Speaking at the MBC dialogue in March, Poe said countries like China, Singapore, and Thailand had flourished with a "strategy of selling to the world rather than to just the domestic market".</p><p>"We have been offered a glimpse of how this works via our business process outsourcing and shipbuilding industries, which are world-class," she said. "These industries took off and were able to build scale because they were not bound by ownership restrictions, benefited from low taxes, and were not harassed by government at the local and national levels."</p><p>Poe owes her initial high profile to the film celebrity couple that adopted her. Her late father, Fernando Poe Jr., was dubbed the King of Philippine Movies. He lost to Arroyo by a slim margin in 2004's fraud-marred presidential election. Educated at Boston College, Poe lived nearly 20 years in the U.S. Her Philippine citizenship had to be affirmed by the supreme court this year, and the issue has dogged her campaign.</p><p>Roxas, 58, comes of another political dynasty. He was educated at Wharton in the U.S. and worked for a time in investment banking in New York. A former senator, he was secretary for trade under Presidents Joseph Estrada and Arroyo, and of both transportation and interior under Aquino.</p><div class="object-center"> <div class="object-center fb"> <div class="object-center"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_114330"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505history/4432186-3-eng-GB/20160505History_large_580.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_114330"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505040029im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201604/20160429t/20160505history/4432186-3-eng-GB/20160505History_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>He put forward the three principal pillars of his economic platform at the MBC forum: manufacturing, tourism, and agriculture. Roxas is less supportive of opening the economy than Duterte, but also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which he sees as damaging to Philippine agriculture. He promised to continue what Aquino started, but has always struggled to win the affection of the masses -- the people whose force of numbers will decide the election.</p><p>Binay, 73, was considered the leading contender last year, but his popularity has plunged steadily as corruption allegations against him remained unanswered. Binay, a former longtime mayor of Makati City, home to the country's main business district, has vowed to reform the Philippine tax system, which has some of the highest rates in Southeast Asia. For instance, the 30% corporate tax rate in the Philippines is almost twice Singapore's 17%.</p><p>Binay wants closer economic cooperation with Beijing after the fouling of relations with Manila over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Poe and Binay are both in favor of opening up the economy.</p><p><b>Can we do business?</b></p><p>With a week to go before the election, investors are getting anxious. The PSEi, a barometer of investor confidence, fell for the seventh straight day on Monday to end at 7,053.88 points, dropping 1.5% from its Friday close and hitting a seven-week low.</p><p>Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank, said election-related jitters are adding to worries over the health of larger economies, such the U.S., which is beginning to tighten monetary policy, and China, which is slowing. "Concerns are being accelerated to a certain extent because Duterte has not fully disclosed his economic plans," said Ravelas.</p><p>Investors are still trying to decode the front-runner's attitude toward businesses. In April, Duterte, in his defense against criticisms that he was supportive of communists, said: "I am a socialist, not a communist. We socialists are for the people."</p><p>The lone candidate from the southern Philippines has made a number of populist remarks. "The moment I assume the presidency, contractualization will stop," he said, echoing other candidates, during a national debate on April 24.</p><p>According to Duterte, some big companies use temporary workers to avoid paying the benefits that regular workers receive. This forces them to find a new job every six months and prevents them from developing technical skills, according to Duterte. Some in the business community feel the candidate's remarks will hurt the flexibility of the country's workforce and push up labor costs. </p><p>While Duterte supports existing multilateral trade deals, he opposes the TPP, arguing that Filipino farmers are not efficient enough to face global competition. He is aware that the pact faces opposition in the U.S. and Japan, the two biggest economies in the would-be trade bloc.</p><p>Noel Leyco, an economist at the Asian Institute of Management, regards the populist rhetoric as a way to win votes rather than a policy pronouncement. "I have not seen him following a socialist program," Leyco said. "He just wants to stay on the<b> </b>controversial side." </p><p>On April 27, Duterte told reporters after the MBC dialogue that he "will open the economy to foreigners" by raising the foreign ownership cap to 70% from the current 40%. He also plans to boost private small and midsize companies. </p><p>But the contradictory statements are not helping. "It is clouding investment environment," RCBC Securities research head Raul Ruiz said. 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Philippines, Inc. wary of Duterte as next president- Nikkei Asian Review