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font-style: italic; color: grey; line-height: 23px; } .tt-post { border: 0px solid #489bd4 !important; -webkit-box-shadow: 0 0px 0 0 #eaeaea !important; -moz-box-shadow: 0 0px 0 0 #eaeaea !important; box-shadow: 0 0px 0 0 #eaeaea !important; } @media only screen and (min-width: 769px) { .relatedsingle{ height: 396px; } .h1, .h2, .h3, h1, h2, h3, .tt-title-text{ margin-top: 0px !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; } } #fkgUBk { display: none; } </style> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:description" content="Experts say while it not yet known how the US president-elect will approach global carbon markets, his policy decisions could bring uncertainty in the near-term – but the future is full of hope" /> <meta name="twitter:title" content="COP29: What Will Donald Trump Mean For Global Carbon Markets?" /> <meta name="twitter:site" content="@ATFinancial_" /> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/AF-Oct-Featured-4.png" /><script type="application/ld+json">{ "@context": "http:\/\/schema.org", "@type": "newsarticle", "inLanguage": "en", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com", "articleBody": " \r\n\r\nAmid copious amounts of doom and gloom, climate summit COP29 kicked off this week with a rare bright spot: <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/cop29-takes-a-step-towards-un-backed-global-carbon-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a decision<\/a><\/strong> that could jumpstart the creation of a global United Nations-backed carbon market.\r\n\r\nThe market \u2014 that could be up and running next year \u2014 is expected to bring integrity to a sector overshadowed by scandals and scepticism, plus channel urgent climate finance to developing economies, and provide funding for climate technologies and strategies.\r\n\r\nBut one question looms over the future of global carbon markets: How will the re-election of Donald Trump, <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.eenews.net\/articles\/whats-at-stake-for-climate-policy-who-the-hell-cares-trump-says\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">who steadfastly believes a climate crisis doesn\u2019t exist<\/a><\/strong>, affect their growth?\r\n\r\n \r\n<h3>Also on AF: <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/elon-musk-said-to-back-trumps-plan-to-kill-bidens-ev-tax-credit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elon Musk Said to Back Trump\u2019s Plan to Kill Biden\u2019s EV Tax Credit<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\r\n \r\n\r\nThe answer, as you may have guessed, is not straightforward.\r\n\r\nCarbon industry experts that spoke to Asia Financial believe that while it may be too early to tell how Trump would approach carbon markets, the future is a mix of uncertainty and lots of hope.\r\n\r\n \r\n<h2>Certainties and uncertainties<\/h2>\r\nThe United States is the world\u2019s biggest historic emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases. It is also the largest economy of the world, meaning it has both motive, and funds, to bolster the growth of carbon markets.\r\n\r\nBut Trump is on track to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement \u2014 which, under its Article 6, outlines the mechanism for global carbon trading.\r\n\r\n<img class="alignleft wp-image-103391 size-medium" src="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/1-300x300.png" alt="What are carbon credits and what is Article 6 of the Paris Agreement" width="300" height="300" \/>\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nTrump likely has \u201can executive order already drafted\u201d to do so, according to Anna Karakitsos, a senior government affairs adviser at energy law firm Bracewell LLP.\r\n\r\nTrump \u201cviews most climate initiatives as unnecessary regulations and wasteful government spending that stymie economic growth,\u201d Karakitsos said.\r\n\r\nThe impact of that decision would only materialise by 2026, however.\r\n\r\n\u201cIt will take 12 months for that notice of withdrawal to take effect, so it will be interesting to see whether the US sends any negotiators to COP30 in Brazil in November 2025, prior to the withdrawal being fully effected,\u201d said Simon Puleston Jones, managing director of carbon market brokerage Emral Carbon.\r\n\r\nHe believes it is all but certain that Trump will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.\r\n\r\nThe withdrawal would mean \u201cUS carbon project developers will be unable to participate in the carbon market\u201d linked to the Paris Agreement "in relation to their US projects," Jones said.\r\n\r\nTrump is also likely to cut back spending under the <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.energy.gov\/lpo\/articles\/transforming-clean-energy-financing-and-supply-chains-united-states-lpo-one-year-after" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 enforced by the outgoing Joe Biden government.\r\n\r\nThat could mean fewer funds for clean energy, a <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/elon-musk-said-to-back-trumps-plan-to-kill-bidens-ev-tax-credit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rollback on tax credits for electric vehicle purchases<\/a><\/strong> and uncertainty around 45Q tax credits that \u2014 despite <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.vox.com\/climate\/363076\/climate-change-solution-shell-exxon-mobil-carbon-capture" target="_blank" rel="noopener">their criticisms<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 have been <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/carbon\/exclusive-new-law-helps-us-firm-launch-wyoming-direct-air-carbon-capture-project-2022-09-08\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a game-changer for American firms<\/a><\/strong> working on carbon removal (CDR) technology Direct Air Capture (DAC).\r\n\r\n \r\n<h2>But carbon markets are too big to fail<\/h2>\r\nConsidering the US has led innovation in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and DAC, Trump\u2019s potential decisions will make the stability of carbon markets uncertain in the near-term.\r\n\r\n\u201cIf he pulls back federal funding for clean energy\u2026 it will slow the expansion and credibility of VCMs in the US by limiting funding for high-quality carbon projects and weakening verification standards. And that absolutely will impact the supply of credits,\u201d Bracewell\u2019s Karakitsos said.\r\n\r\nVCMs \u2013 voluntary carbon markets \u2013 are a largely unregulated mechanism that allow private firms, organisations, and individuals to buy and sell credits to manage their carbon footprint on a voluntary basis. They operate alongside compliance markets that are regulated and often formed by regional, national or international authorities.\r\n\r\nThe US does not currently have a national market, but some states such as California and Washington have set up regional compliance markets.\r\n\r\nIn his first term as president, Trump sued California\u2019s carbon market but lost the challenge. And experts say that federal laws since have <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.eenews.net\/articles\/carbon-markets-safe-from-possible-trump-attack-could-expand\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only strengthened such state-led markets<\/a><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nThat brings us to a crucial piece of the puzzle \u2014 carbon markets have now become too big to fail \u2014 even without official US participation.\r\n\r\n<img class="alignleft wp-image-103394 size-medium" src="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-300x236.png" alt="What is an emissions trading system and what are carbon permits" width="300" height="236" \/>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href="https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/global-carbon-markets-value-hit-record-949-bln-last-year-lseg-2024-02-12\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">According to LSEG<\/a><\/strong>, the value of global compliance carbon markets reached a record $949 billion in 2023. The European Union's Emissions Trading System (ETS) accounted for about 87% of that value and the price of carbon permits hit record highs in the EU ETS, in American state-led markets and also in China, which launched its ETS in 2021.\r\n\r\nThat poses important considerations for American firms that have overseas operations.\r\n\r\n"Many US firms operate internationally and thus must comply with stricter regulations in regions like the EU. These firms are expected to maintain their commitment to carbon credits to meet sustainability goals and regulatory requirements," said Clement Gourrierec, founder of <strong><a href="https:\/\/crystaltrade.fr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CrystalTrade<\/a><\/strong>, a French green tech firm that makes software for measuring the effectiveness of carbon removal projects.\r\n\r\nThat "will keep demand [for carbon credits] strong and help shape global market dynamics," Gourrierec added.\r\n\r\nUS climate firms with overseas projects will also be able to continue to supply carbon credits to regional and international markets, such as the UN-backed one, Emral Carbon\u2019s Jones noted.\r\n\r\nIt is worth noting that prices on global ETS markets were little affected by Trump\u2019s re-election or in the following days when he began picking out his administration.\r\n\r\n \r\n<h2>It\u2019s all about climate and politics<\/h2>\r\nMeanwhile, growing interest in carbon dioxide removal across Africa, South America, and Asia also means credits for methods like biochar (a charcoal-like substance produced from burning biomass in the absence of oxygen), have "a wide buyer base beyond the US," CrystalTrade's Gourrierec noted.\r\n\r\n[caption id="attachment_99433" align="alignleft" width="300"]<img class="wp-image-99433 size-medium" src="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/rei-copy-1-300x200.jpg" alt="Domingo Albacete, 44, a farmer, shows biochar deposited around an olive tree during an experiment by researchers from the University of Jaen in his olive grove, in Chiclana de Segura, near Jaen, Spain" width="300" height="200" \/> A Spanish farmer shows biochar. Photo: Reuters[\/caption]\r\n\r\n"International players are well-positioned to fill any gaps [created by the US], ensuring continued progress in the carbon markets globally," he added.\r\n\r\nIn essence, while Trump's return to power in the US creates some risk in the medium-term, growing climate awareness will keep propelling carbon markets over the longer-term.\r\n\r\n\u201cRegardless of the election result, a transition to a low-carbon economy is already underway and the shift to net zero remains of utmost importance to economic and social prosperity,\u201d carbon asset developer and climate consultancy <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.southpole.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South Pole<\/a><\/strong> said in a statement.\r\n\r\nThe firm said it hopes "the results of the election will encourage other countries, states, and companies to double down on their net zero commitments."\r\n\r\nThat said, there may even be significant political value for Trump in bolstering carbon markets, particularly VCMs.\r\n\r\nCompared to their compliance-based counterparts, voluntary carbon markets were worth a much smaller $723 million last year. That was after their value plummeted from $2 billion in 2022, due to repeated greenwashing scandals.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n[caption id="attachment_103393" align="alignleft" width="700"]<img class="wp-image-103393 size-full" src="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/3.png" alt="Prices of voluntary carbon markets sunk to historic lows between 2023 and 2024" width="700" height="700" \/> Prices of voluntary carbon markets sunk to historic lows between 2023 and 2024. Graph: UN Trade and Development.[\/caption]\r\n\r\nThe Biden administration this year <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2024\/05\/28\/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-principles-for-high-integrity-voluntary-carbon-markets\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">took an array of decisions<\/a><\/strong> to endorse VCMs and <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sustainability\/climate-energy\/us-cftc-issues-first-guidelines-carbon-credit-markets-2024-09-20\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">improve their oversight<\/a><\/strong>. And Trump might benefit from keeping that up.\r\n\r\nFor instance, one of Trump\u2019s closest current aides \u2014 Elon Musk \u2014 has seen significant earnings from carbon credits. Musk\u2019s EV firm Tesla earned <strong><a href="https:\/\/carboncredits.com\/tesla-hits-record-high-sales-from-carbon-credits-at-1-79b\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a record $1.79 billion from carbon credit sales<\/a><\/strong> last year, according to annual reports.\r\n\r\n\u201cIt seems unlikely that the new administration would choose to cut off Tesla\u2019s access to revenue via the sale of such credits,\u201d Emral Carbon\u2019s Jones said, on why Trump was unlikely to ban VCMs.\r\n\r\nTrump's criticism of China, since his first term, and <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/trump-eyes-60-china-tariffs-sparks-new-trade-war-fears-wp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threat to impose 60% tariffs<\/a><\/strong> on imports from the country also offers some hope.\r\n\r\nGetting \u201ca leg up against China\u201d could motivate Trump to strengthen US participation in VCM\u2019s, Bracewell\u2019s Karakitsos noted.\r\n\r\n\u201cHe could influence global trade practices by leveraging [VCMs] in international trade negotiations and integrate carbon-related trade mechanisms or standards with major trade partners like the EU, who are also tightening their carbon standards,\u201d she said.\r\n\r\n\u201cThe US does not operate in a vacuum, and what our trade partners are doing does matter.\u201d\r\n\r\n \r\n<h2>The future is integrity<\/h2>\r\nWhat these factors largely mean is that the real growth of carbon markets over the long-term will depend on the integrity of the credits they trade, regardless of Trump's stance on climate.\r\n\r\nVCMs have faced issues like greenwashing, inaccurate emissions reporting and <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/germany-rejects-fake-chinese-carbon-credits-used-by-oil-firms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scams<\/a><\/strong> even without US participation. And large-scale efforts are being made to improve their accountability and oversight across the globe.\r\n\r\nThis week\u2019s breakthrough COP29 consensus on new standards for international carbon trading, is one big example. It signals \u201ca commitment to move forward and get capital moving,\u201d Guy Turner, head of MSCI carbon markets, said in a press statement.\r\n\r\nOrganisations like <strong><a href="https:\/\/icvcm.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM)<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0have sought to address concerns around credits by launching <strong><a href="https:\/\/icvcm.org\/core-carbon-principles\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Core Carbon Principle (CCP) standards<\/a><\/strong>. Current projects with methodologies approved under those standards have the potential to issue more than 400 million carbon credits, <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/environment\/global-carbon-offset-standard-setter-okays-three-deforestation-project-types-2024-11-15\/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the organisation has said<\/a><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile, Microsoft, the world\u2019s largest buyer of CDR credits is <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/bill-gates-backs-effort-to-boost-credibility-of-carbon-removal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">also backing an effort to bring standardisation<\/a><\/strong> to the carbon removal industry.\r\n\r\nWith greater reliability, VCMs could reach a value of $250 billion a year by 2030 and $1.5 trillion a year by 2050, <strong><a href="https:\/\/www.businessgreen.com\/news\/4122390\/report-global-voluntary-carbon-credit-market-primed-reach-usd250bn-2030" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Barclays<\/a><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nBut will Trump find the motivation to help those efforts? That is a question the world might find itself asking once he re-enters the White House in January.\r\n\r\n \r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>Vishakha Saxena<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n \r\n<h3>Also read:<\/h3>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/fossil-fuels-set-to-drive-global-emissions-to-a-record-yet-again" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fossil Fuels Set to Drive Global Emissions to a Record, Yet Again<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/climate-startup-raises-32m-to-bury-carbon-waste-in-wells" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Startup Raises $32m to Bury Carbon Waste in Wells<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/we-are-on-a-road-to-ruin-cop29-kicks-off-amid-trump-worry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">\u2018We Are on a Road to Ruin\u2019: COP29 Kicks Off Amid Trump Worry<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/uncertainty-on-methane-emission-fee-as-biden-term-nears-end" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Uncertainty on Methane Emission Fee as Biden Term Nears End<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/scientists-say-2024-virtually-certain-to-be-hottest-on-record" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scientists Say 2024 \u2018Virtually Certain\u2019 to be Hottest on Record<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/floods-drought-climate-change-worsening-global-water-woes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Floods or Drought: Climate Change Worsens Global Water Woes<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/asian-economies-at-risk-from-inaction-on-climate-change-adb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asian Economies at Risk From Inaction on Climate Change: ADB<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/climate-change-has-cost-china-32-billion-in-just-one-quarter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Change Has Cost China $32 Billion in Just One Quarter<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/emissions-of-worlds-super-rich-drive-economic-losses-deaths" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emissions of World\u2019s Super Rich \u2018Drive Economic Losses, Deaths\u2019<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/energy-emissions-set-to-peak-but-not-in-time-for-climate-goals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Energy Emissions Set to Peak But \u2018Not in Time\u2019 For Climate Goals<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/bp-dumps-oil-pledge-while-chasing-billions-in-climate-subsidies" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BP Dumps Oil Pledge While Chasing Billions in Climate Subsidies<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/scientists-fear-natures-carbon-sinks-are-failing-guardian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scientists Fear Nature\u2019s Carbon Sinks Are Failing \u2013 Guardian<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><a href="https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/could-melting-glaciers-trigger-volcanic-eruptions-reuters" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Could Melting Glaciers Trigger Volcanic Eruptions? \u2013 Reuters<\/a><\/h4>\r\n<h4><\/h4>\r\n ", "articleSection": "Asia", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/cop29-what-will-donald-trump-mean-for-global-carbon-markets" }, "headline": "COP29: What Will Donald Trump Mean For Global Carbon Markets?", "description": "Experts say while it not yet known how the US president-elect will approach global carbon markets, his policy decisions could bring uncertainty in the near-term \u2013 but the future is full of hope", "datePublished": "2024-11-15T13:04:31+00:00", "dateModified": "2024-11-18T12:28:26+00:00", "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Asia Financial", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/themes\/atf\/images\/AF-logo-small.png", "width": "640", "height": "97" } }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Asia Financial" }, "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https:\/\/www.asiafinancial.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/AF-Oct-Featured-4.png" } }</script> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-CNH68EHNDT"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; 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text-align: right; vertical-align: middle; } @media screen and (max-width: 767px){ .related-articles-sec .tt-post-inner{ overflow: hidden; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2); } .related-articles-sec .tt-post-inner .tt-post-img{ float: right; margin-left: 10px;} .related-articles-sec .simple-text a{font-size: 18px;color: #111;font-weight: 500;line-height: 26px;} .related-articles-sec .tt-post.type-3 .tt-post-info{padding: 0; } .related-articles-sec .tt-post-info .simple-text{ margin-top: 0;} .related-articles-sec .tt-post.type-3{ text-align: left; } } .new-category-design, .tt-post-label-new { margin-bottom: -8px; margin-top: 13px; } </style> <div id="page-wrapper" class="content top-bottom"> <div class="container"> <div class="row story-div"> <div class="marg-lg-b20"></div> <div class="col-md-8"> <div class="story-top"> <div class="reports-big-head"> <div class="tt-post-label tt-post-label-new"> <span class="tt-post-label-new tt-post-cat"> <a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/carbon">Carbon</a> </span></div> <h1 class="reports-big-head">COP29: What Will Donald Trump Mean For Global Carbon Markets?</h1> </div> <div class="tt-post type-3"> <div class="tt-post-label" style="font-size:14px;">  <span class="tt-post-date" style="margin-left:5px;">November 15, 2024</span></div> <div class="col post-excerpt" style="margin-top:10px;"> <h4> <p>Experts say while it not yet known how the US president-elect will approach global carbon markets, his policy decisions could bring uncertainty in the near-term – but the future is full of hope</p> </h4> </div> <br> <div class="sharethisbx"> <ul class="custom-share"> <li class="facebook"> <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://www.asiafinancial.com/cop29-what-will-donald-trump-mean-for-global-carbon-markets"> <i class="fb"><img alt="facebook" src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/themes/atf/images/facebook.svg"></i> </a> </li> <li class="twit"> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/share?text=COP29%3A%20What%20Will%20Donald%20Trump%20Mean%20For%20Global%20Carbon%20Markets%3F&url=https://www.asiafinancial.com/cop29-what-will-donald-trump-mean-for-global-carbon-markets"> <i class="twit"><img src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/themes/atf/images/twitter.svg?v=1" alt="twitter"></i> </a> </li> <li class="whatsapp"> <a rel="nofollow" href="whatsapp://send?text=https://www.asiafinancial.com/cop29-what-will-donald-trump-mean-for-global-carbon-markets"> <i class="wapp"><img src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/themes/atf/images/whatsapp.svg" alt="whatsapp"></i> </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="story-big-img"> <figure>  <img src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/AF-Oct-Featured-4.png" class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" alt="Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump takes the stage at a campaign rally at Santander Arena in Reading, Pennsylvania, US" loading="lazy" srcset="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/AF-Oct-Featured-4.png 710w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/AF-Oct-Featured-4-300x200.png 300w" sizes="100vw" /> <figcaption style="line-height: 17px; font-size: 12px; font-weight: 500; margin-top: 10px; color: #aaaaaa;"> US president-elect Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, on November 4, 2024. Photo: Reuters </figcaption> </figure> </div> <div class="content"> <p> </p> <p>Amid copious amounts of doom and gloom, climate summit COP29 kicked off this week with a rare bright spot: <strong><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/cop29-takes-a-step-towards-un-backed-global-carbon-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a decision</a></strong> that could jumpstart the creation of a global United Nations-backed carbon market.</p> <p>The market — that could be up and running next year — is expected to bring integrity to a sector overshadowed by scandals and scepticism, plus channel urgent climate finance to developing economies, and provide funding for climate technologies and strategies.</p> <p>But one question looms over the future of global carbon markets: How will the re-election of Donald Trump, <strong><a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/whats-at-stake-for-climate-policy-who-the-hell-cares-trump-says/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">who steadfastly believes a climate crisis doesn’t exist</a></strong>, affect their growth?</p> <p> </p> <h3>Also on AF: <strong><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/elon-musk-said-to-back-trumps-plan-to-kill-bidens-ev-tax-credit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elon Musk Said to Back Trump’s Plan to Kill Biden’s EV Tax Credit</a></strong></h3> <p> </p> <p>The answer, as you may have guessed, is not straightforward.</p> <p>Carbon industry experts that spoke to Asia Financial believe that while it may be too early to tell how Trump would approach carbon markets, the future is a mix of uncertainty and lots of hope.</p> <p> </p> <h2>Certainties and uncertainties</h2> <p>The United States is the world’s biggest historic emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases. It is also the largest economy of the world, meaning it has both motive, and funds, to bolster the growth of carbon markets.</p> <p>But Trump is on track to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement — which, under its Article 6, outlines the mechanism for global carbon trading.</p> <p><img loading="lazy" class="alignleft wp-image-103391 size-medium" src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1-300x300.png" alt="What are carbon credits and what is Article 6 of the Paris Agreement" width="300" height="300" srcset="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1-300x300.png 300w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1-150x150.png 150w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1-24x24.png 24w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1-48x48.png 48w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1-96x96.png 96w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1.png 700w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></p> <p> </p> <p>Trump likely has “an executive order already drafted” to do so, according to Anna Karakitsos, a senior government affairs adviser at energy law firm Bracewell LLP.</p> <p>Trump “views most climate initiatives as unnecessary regulations and wasteful government spending that stymie economic growth,” Karakitsos said.</p> <p>The impact of that decision would only materialise by 2026, however.</p> <p>“It will take 12 months for that notice of withdrawal to take effect, so it will be interesting to see whether the US sends any negotiators to COP30 in Brazil in November 2025, prior to the withdrawal being fully effected,” said Simon Puleston Jones, managing director of carbon market brokerage Emral Carbon.</p> <p>He believes it is all but certain that Trump will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.</p> <p>The withdrawal would mean “US carbon project developers will be unable to participate in the carbon market” linked to the Paris Agreement “in relation to their US projects,” Jones said.</p> <p>Trump is also likely to cut back spending under the <strong><a href="https://www.energy.gov/lpo/articles/transforming-clean-energy-financing-and-supply-chains-united-states-lpo-one-year-after" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)</a></strong> — enforced by the outgoing Joe Biden government.</p> <p>That could mean fewer funds for clean energy, a <strong><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/elon-musk-said-to-back-trumps-plan-to-kill-bidens-ev-tax-credit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rollback on tax credits for electric vehicle purchases</a></strong> and uncertainty around 45Q tax credits that — despite <strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/363076/climate-change-solution-shell-exxon-mobil-carbon-capture" target="_blank" rel="noopener">their criticisms</a></strong> — have been <strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/carbon/exclusive-new-law-helps-us-firm-launch-wyoming-direct-air-carbon-capture-project-2022-09-08/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a game-changer for American firms</a></strong> working on carbon removal (CDR) technology Direct Air Capture (DAC).</p> <p> </p> <h2>But carbon markets are too big to fail</h2> <p>Considering the US has led innovation in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and DAC, Trump’s potential decisions will make the stability of carbon markets uncertain in the near-term.</p> <p>“If he pulls back federal funding for clean energy… it will slow the expansion and credibility of VCMs in the US by limiting funding for high-quality carbon projects and weakening verification standards. And that absolutely will impact the supply of credits,” Bracewell’s Karakitsos said.</p> <p>VCMs – voluntary carbon markets – are a largely unregulated mechanism that allow private firms, organisations, and individuals to buy and sell credits to manage their carbon footprint on a voluntary basis. They operate alongside compliance markets that are regulated and often formed by regional, national or international authorities.</p> <p>The US does not currently have a national market, but some states such as California and Washington have set up regional compliance markets.</p> <p>In his first term as president, Trump sued California’s carbon market but lost the challenge. And experts say that federal laws since have <strong><a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/carbon-markets-safe-from-possible-trump-attack-could-expand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only strengthened such state-led markets</a></strong>.</p> <p>That brings us to a crucial piece of the puzzle — carbon markets have now become too big to fail — even without official US participation.</p> <p><img loading="lazy" class="alignleft wp-image-103394 size-medium" src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2-300x236.png" alt="What is an emissions trading system and what are carbon permits" width="300" height="236" srcset="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2-300x236.png 300w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2.png 700w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-carbon-markets-value-hit-record-949-bln-last-year-lseg-2024-02-12/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">According to LSEG</a></strong>, the value of global compliance carbon markets reached a record $949 billion in 2023. The European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) accounted for about 87% of that value and the price of carbon permits hit record highs in the EU ETS, in American state-led markets and also in China, which launched its ETS in 2021.</p> <p>That poses important considerations for American firms that have overseas operations.</p> <p>“Many US firms operate internationally and thus must comply with stricter regulations in regions like the EU. These firms are expected to maintain their commitment to carbon credits to meet sustainability goals and regulatory requirements,” said Clement Gourrierec, founder of <strong><a href="https://crystaltrade.fr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CrystalTrade</a></strong>, a French green tech firm that makes software for measuring the effectiveness of carbon removal projects.</p> <p>That “will keep demand [for carbon credits] strong and help shape global market dynamics,” Gourrierec added.</p> <p>US climate firms with overseas projects will also be able to continue to supply carbon credits to regional and international markets, such as the UN-backed one, Emral Carbon’s Jones noted.</p> <p>It is worth noting that prices on global ETS markets were little affected by Trump’s re-election or in the following days when he began picking out his administration.</p> <p> </p> <h2>It’s all about climate and politics</h2> <p>Meanwhile, growing interest in carbon dioxide removal across Africa, South America, and Asia also means credits for methods like biochar (a charcoal-like substance produced from burning biomass in the absence of oxygen), have “a wide buyer base beyond the US,” CrystalTrade’s Gourrierec noted.</p> <figure id="attachment_99433" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-99433" style="width: 300px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" class="wp-image-99433 size-medium" src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/rei-copy-1-300x200.jpg" alt="Domingo Albacete, 44, a farmer, shows biochar deposited around an olive tree during an experiment by researchers from the University of Jaen in his olive grove, in Chiclana de Segura, near Jaen, Spain" width="300" height="200" srcset="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/rei-copy-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/rei-copy-1.jpg 710w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-99433" class="wp-caption-text">A Spanish farmer shows biochar. Photo: Reuters</figcaption></figure> <p>“International players are well-positioned to fill any gaps [created by the US], ensuring continued progress in the carbon markets globally,” he added.</p> <p>In essence, while Trump’s return to power in the US creates some risk in the medium-term, growing climate awareness will keep propelling carbon markets over the longer-term.</p> <p>“Regardless of the election result, a transition to a low-carbon economy is already underway and the shift to net zero remains of utmost importance to economic and social prosperity,” carbon asset developer and climate consultancy <strong><a href="https://www.southpole.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South Pole</a></strong> said in a statement.</p> <p>The firm said it hopes “the results of the election will encourage other countries, states, and companies to double down on their net zero commitments.”</p> <p>That said, there may even be significant political value for Trump in bolstering carbon markets, particularly VCMs.</p> <p>Compared to their compliance-based counterparts, voluntary carbon markets were worth a much smaller $723 million last year. That was after their value plummeted from $2 billion in 2022, due to repeated greenwashing scandals.</p> <p> </p> <figure id="attachment_103393" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-103393" style="width: 700px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" class="wp-image-103393 size-full" src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3.png" alt="Prices of voluntary carbon markets sunk to historic lows between 2023 and 2024" width="700" height="700" srcset="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3.png 700w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3-300x300.png 300w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3-150x150.png 150w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3-24x24.png 24w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3-48x48.png 48w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3-96x96.png 96w" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-103393" class="wp-caption-text">Prices of voluntary carbon markets sunk to historic lows between 2023 and 2024. Graph: UN Trade and Development.</figcaption></figure> <p>The Biden administration this year <strong><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/28/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-principles-for-high-integrity-voluntary-carbon-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">took an array of decisions</a></strong> to endorse VCMs and <strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-cftc-issues-first-guidelines-carbon-credit-markets-2024-09-20/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">improve their oversight</a></strong>. And Trump might benefit from keeping that up.</p> <p>For instance, one of Trump’s closest current aides — Elon Musk — has seen significant earnings from carbon credits. Musk’s EV firm Tesla earned <strong><a href="https://carboncredits.com/tesla-hits-record-high-sales-from-carbon-credits-at-1-79b/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a record $1.79 billion from carbon credit sales</a></strong> last year, according to annual reports.</p> <p>“It seems unlikely that the new administration would choose to cut off Tesla’s access to revenue via the sale of such credits,” Emral Carbon’s Jones said, on why Trump was unlikely to ban VCMs.</p> <p>Trump’s criticism of China, since his first term, and <strong><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/trump-eyes-60-china-tariffs-sparks-new-trade-war-fears-wp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threat to impose 60% tariffs</a></strong> on imports from the country also offers some hope.</p> <p>Getting “a leg up against China” could motivate Trump to strengthen US participation in VCM’s, Bracewell’s Karakitsos noted.</p> <p>“He could influence global trade practices by leveraging [VCMs] in international trade negotiations and integrate carbon-related trade mechanisms or standards with major trade partners like the EU, who are also tightening their carbon standards,” she said.</p> <p>“The US does not operate in a vacuum, and what our trade partners are doing does matter.”</p> <p> </p> <h2>The future is integrity</h2> <p>What these factors largely mean is that the real growth of carbon markets over the long-term will depend on the integrity of the credits they trade, regardless of Trump’s stance on climate.</p> <p>VCMs have faced issues like greenwashing, inaccurate emissions reporting and <strong><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/germany-rejects-fake-chinese-carbon-credits-used-by-oil-firms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scams</a></strong> even without US participation. And large-scale efforts are being made to improve their accountability and oversight across the globe.</p> <p>This week’s breakthrough COP29 consensus on new standards for international carbon trading, is one big example. It signals “a commitment to move forward and get capital moving,” Guy Turner, head of MSCI carbon markets, said in a press statement.</p> <p>Organisations like <strong><a href="https://icvcm.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM)</a></strong> have sought to address concerns around credits by launching <strong><a href="https://icvcm.org/core-carbon-principles/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Core Carbon Principle (CCP) standards</a></strong>. Current projects with methodologies approved under those standards have the potential to issue more than 400 million carbon credits, <strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/global-carbon-offset-standard-setter-okays-three-deforestation-project-types-2024-11-15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the organisation has said</a></strong>.</p> <p>Meanwhile, Microsoft, the world’s largest buyer of CDR credits is <strong><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/bill-gates-backs-effort-to-boost-credibility-of-carbon-removal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">also backing an effort to bring standardisation</a></strong> to the carbon removal industry.</p> <p>With greater reliability, VCMs could reach a value of $250 billion a year by 2030 and $1.5 trillion a year by 2050, <strong><a href="https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4122390/report-global-voluntary-carbon-credit-market-primed-reach-usd250bn-2030" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Barclays</a></strong>.</p> <p>But will Trump find the motivation to help those efforts? That is a question the world might find itself asking once he re-enters the White House in January.</p> <p> </p> <ul> <li>Vishakha Saxena</li> </ul> <p> </p> <h3>Also read:</h3> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/fossil-fuels-set-to-drive-global-emissions-to-a-record-yet-again" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fossil Fuels Set to Drive Global Emissions to a Record, Yet Again</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/climate-startup-raises-32m-to-bury-carbon-waste-in-wells" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Startup Raises $32m to Bury Carbon Waste in Wells</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/we-are-on-a-road-to-ruin-cop29-kicks-off-amid-trump-worry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘We Are on a Road to Ruin’: COP29 Kicks Off Amid Trump Worry</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/uncertainty-on-methane-emission-fee-as-biden-term-nears-end" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Uncertainty on Methane Emission Fee as Biden Term Nears End</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/scientists-say-2024-virtually-certain-to-be-hottest-on-record" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scientists Say 2024 ‘Virtually Certain’ to be Hottest on Record</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/floods-drought-climate-change-worsening-global-water-woes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Floods or Drought: Climate Change Worsens Global Water Woes</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/asian-economies-at-risk-from-inaction-on-climate-change-adb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asian Economies at Risk From Inaction on Climate Change: ADB</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/climate-change-has-cost-china-32-billion-in-just-one-quarter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Change Has Cost China $32 Billion in Just One Quarter</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/emissions-of-worlds-super-rich-drive-economic-losses-deaths" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emissions of World’s Super Rich ‘Drive Economic Losses, Deaths’</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/energy-emissions-set-to-peak-but-not-in-time-for-climate-goals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Energy Emissions Set to Peak But ‘Not in Time’ For Climate Goals</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/bp-dumps-oil-pledge-while-chasing-billions-in-climate-subsidies" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BP Dumps Oil Pledge While Chasing Billions in Climate Subsidies</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/scientists-fear-natures-carbon-sinks-are-failing-guardian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scientists Fear Nature’s Carbon Sinks Are Failing – Guardian</a></h4> <h4><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/could-melting-glaciers-trigger-volcanic-eruptions-reuters" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Could Melting Glaciers Trigger Volcanic Eruptions? – Reuters</a></h4> <h4></h4> <p> </p> <div class="tags"> Tags: <a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/carbon" rel="tag">Carbon</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/carbon-capture" rel="tag">Carbon Capture</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/carbon-credits" rel="tag">Carbon Credits</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/carbon-footprint" rel="tag">Carbon Footprint</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/carbon-markets" rel="tag">Carbon Markets</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/carbon-offsets" rel="tag">Carbon Offsets</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/carbon-removal" rel="tag">Carbon Removal</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/china-climate" rel="tag">China Climate</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/climate-change" rel="tag">Climate Change</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/cop29" rel="tag">COP29</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/donald-trump" rel="tag">Donald Trump</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/emissions" rel="tag">Emissions</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/global-warming" rel="tag">Global Warming</a><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/tag/paris-climate-agreement" rel="tag">Paris Climate Agreement</a> </div> <div class="author-box"> <div class="profile_images"><img width="96" height="96" src="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4-96x96.jpg" class="avatar avatar-96 photo imgauthor" alt="" loading="lazy" srcset="https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4-96x96.jpg 96w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4-300x300.jpg 300w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4-150x150.jpg 150w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4-768x768.jpg 768w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4-24x24.jpg 24w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4-48x48.jpg 48w, https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-4.jpg 1000w" sizes="100vw" /></div> <div class="author-content"> <h3><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/author/vishakha-saxenaasiafinancial-com">Vishakha Saxena </a></h3> <p style="font-size: 14px;"> Vishakha Saxena is the Multimedia and Social Media Editor at Asia Financial. She has worked as a digital journalist since 2013, and is an experienced writer and multimedia producer. As a trader and investor, she is keenly interested in new economy, emerging markets and the intersections of finance and society. 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