Mysteel解读：年末将至需求不济玉米副产品价格迎来新一轮低点-我的钢铁网

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10:57</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="3259" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><strong>导语：</strong>年末将至，<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/yumi/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>玉米</a>副产品价格整体呈现下跌趋势，市场多关注年前<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/siliao/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>饲料</a>企业上量带动成交氛围好转，致使价格止跌回稳，但受玉米与<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/doupo/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>豆粕</a>价格走弱双重压制，市场持续低空表现，现阶段企业竞价吸引签单，订单却反响平平，下游观望情绪浓郁，拿货心态谨慎为主，多方偏空情绪使得玉米副产品跌至年内新的低点，年前还能否有望好转？月末之际，新年伊始，市场对于后市的行情关注度较高，小编如下浅析：</p> <p>从全年的价格来看，<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/dbf/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>玉米蛋白粉</a>与喷浆玉米皮价格走势始终持低位震荡运行为主，目前均处于年内最低点。从月初至今，市场仿佛如寒潮般愈发成冰，给后市带来新的挑战难度。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2024/12/19/1116441.png" width="470" height="289" /></p> <p>如上图所示，截至发稿当日全国玉米蛋白粉主流均价3735元/吨，月环比下跌6.57%，全国玉米喷浆皮均价785元/吨，月环比下跌5.71%。近期价格持续稳中下行，虽出口情况对<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/ymxw/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>玉米纤维</a>供应有所改善，但整体供大于求表现下需求不济及替代蛋白原料都对后市价格上涨受限。</p> <p><strong>企业利润良好开机情绪表现积极</strong></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a><a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>调查数据显示，受到局部环保政策与设备检修的持续影响，本周开机率有所下降，周度开机率为64.7%，较上周降低4.5%。近期部分地区环保原因开机率有所下降，但是开机水平仍持全年较高水平，主要原因受新季玉米上市后影响原料玉米价格持续低位表现，深加工企业上半年利润不济，下半年利润情况如下所示，山东地区总利润在140以此类推，利润水平良好，故而开机生产积极性高。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2024/12/19/1116442.png" width="554" height="229" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2024/12/19/1116443.png" width="554" height="298" /></p> <p><strong>终端需求不济下游备货情绪偏低</strong></p> <p>供应增压下，企业也在持续降价吸引签单，但为何企业在不断降价吸引签单情况下，下游拿货情绪不高呢？我们可以了解到2024年中国整体市场情况分析，宏观来说，目前全国市场消费信心不足，人民消费降级表现明显，终端消费持续偏弱走势，而从饲料端来看，今年整体饲料产量同比去年下滑表现，受养殖户年内亏损居多影响，成品饲料销售难度较大，饲料企业原料拿货情绪降温，故而今年年关大几率难以出现如往年般集体上量签单涨价现象，据了解大多下游饲料厂心态，一方面终端养殖不乐观，另一方面原料价格持续破新低的情况下，滚动补库、谨慎对待规避风险。而从贸易环节分析，往年贸易端在此行情下均开始进行补库行为，但今年整体贸易企业除有实力的大型贸易公司外，多数贸易商采取低库存随收随走策略为主，建库意愿较低，同样也是为了减少投入风险，谨慎操作。目前市场行情暂无利好显现，所以无论是饲料环节还是贸易环节，整体驱动力支撑行情均有限。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2024/12/19/1116444.png" width="483" height="307" /></p> <p><strong>豆粕玉米利空不断副产品上行动力受阻</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 530px; height: 292px;" src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2024/12/19/1116445.jpg" width="600" height="331" /></p> <p>从豆粕及玉米来看，今年新粮上市玉米价格下跌幅度超市场预期，玉米水分较高，华北地区多数基层点没有烘干能力，潮粮无法保存。东北玉米毒素也有所上升，致使产品加工后，玉米副产品成品大多毒素较高影响购销。当下玉米供应因素占据主导地位，春节之前依然有农户售粮压力，贸易环节存粮意愿较差的情况下，价格下跌预期仍在。中长期转折的关键点在政策的实质支撑和心态的转变。首先是政策的支撑，虽然东北地区国储已经连续开库收购，但后续的收购量是市场关注的重点若无保证，支撑效果一般。另外就是玉米质量的改善影响，对后市价格或有支撑作用。</p> <p>豆粕截至12月18日全国沿海地区报价整体下调，主流价格在2780-2940元/吨。目前国内<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/dadou/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>大豆</a>到港仍在增加，油厂开机率上升，美豆期价继续下行，南美大豆产量预期不断强化，中国对美国大豆进口需求疲软，多重利空因素打压下美豆走低。连粕主力合约不断创新低，下游饲料需求不佳，中下游企业维持刚需补库，豆粕价格偏空对待为主，暂无利好烘托。</p> <p><strong>总结</strong></p> <p>短期来看，玉米副产品价格上行空间难度较大，市场大多关注下游年关备货上量能够拉动企业价格止跌回稳，但在原料玉米偏弱及豆粕价格压制下，短期内行情预计仍趋弱调整。但从深加工角度来说，目前持续下跌行情下，在临近年关前肯定会达到一个合理价格区间震荡，小编认为在此阶段下价值已然尚可，故而下跌空间有限，饲料企业年关备货量临近年末也会陆续补足，市场也勿过分悲观，静待后市破冰解冻。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：黄园园 021-66896833 </br> 资讯监督：龙雪云 021-26094522 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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Mysteel解读：年末将至需求不济 玉米副产品价格迎来新一轮低点-我的钢铁网

Mysteel解读：年末将至需求不济玉米副产品价格迎来新一轮低点-我的钢铁网