Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower | Environment

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</script> </div> <span class="caption"> 'There's suspicion the IEA has been influenced by the US' <a name="&lid={inBodyAudio}{Link to this audio}&lpos={inBodyAudio}{1}" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/audio/2009/nov/10/oil-international-energy-agency">Link to this audio</a> </span> </span><p>In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/oil">oil</a> production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.</p><p>Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.</p><p>"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.</p><p>A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.</p><p>The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."</p><p>The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to long-term oil supplies.</p><p>The IEA said tonight that peak oil critics had often wrongly questioned the accuracy of its figures. A spokesman said it was unable to comment ahead of the 2009 report being released tomorrow.</p><p>John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.</p><p>He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.</p><p>"This all gives an importance to the Copenhagen [climate change] talks and an urgent need for the UK to move faster towards a more sustainable [lower carbon] economy if it is to avoid severe economic dislocation," he added.</p><p>The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections from earlier outside attack. Peak oil critics have often questioned the IEA figures.</p><p>But now IEA sources who have contacted the Guardian say that Birol has increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the organisation.</p><p>Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer than many have accepted.</p><p>A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".</p><p>But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."</p> </div> </div> <div id="related"> <ul id="article-toolbox-side"> <li class="printable"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency/print" rel="nofollow" id="printlink" class="printable rollover" title="Link to a printer-friendly version" name="&lid={pageToolbox}{Printer-friendly version}&lpos={pageToolbox}{1}"><img src="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/static/81552/common/images/icon_print.gif" alt="Print this" class="trail-icon"/><span>Printable version</span></a></li> <li><a class="rollover sendlink" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/email/355374947" title="Opens an email form" name="&lid={pageToolbox}{Email a 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A version appeared on p1 of the <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2009/nov/10/mainsection/topstories" name="&lid={historyByline}{Top stories}&lpos={historyByline}{1}">Top stories</a> section of <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian" name="&lid={historyByline}{The Guardian}&lpos={historyByline}{4}">the Guardian</a> on <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2009/nov/10" name="&lid={historyByline}{The GuardianTuesday 10 November 2009}&lpos={historyByline}{2}">Tuesday 10 November 2009</a>. 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'http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://ads.guardian.co.uk/js.ng/spacedesc=rightslot1&comfolder=creditcrunch&keywords=%2COil%2B%28environment%29%2COil%2B%28business%29%2CEnergy%2B%28Environment%29%2COil%2Band%2Bgas%2Bcompanies%2B%28Business%29%2CGlobal%2Beconomy%2B%28Business%29%2CBusiness%2C&site=Environment&bandwidth=broadband&url=%252Fenvironment%252F2009%252Fnov%252F09%252Fpeak-oil-international-energy-agency&rand=-842777773&series=&audioId=355390624&system=audio&tile=3430316&blockVideoAds=false&partnerid=&'; generateScriptTag(src); } //]]> </script> </div> <div id="attention-data" class="component attention-data environment"> <div class="hd"><h2>Latest from environment</h2></div> <div id="att-toggle"> <ul class="tabs"> <li> <a href="#att-most-viewed" class="active">Most viewed</a> </li> <li> <a href="#att-latest" class="inactive">Latest</a> </li> <li> <a href="#att-most-commented" class="inactive">Most commented</a> </li> </ul> <div id="att-panes"> <div id="att-most-viewed" class="att-tabs att-toggle-pane"> <div class="capsule" id="most-viewed"> <div id="most" class="tabs-container"> <p>Last 24 hours</p> <ol> <li class="first"> <span class="rank">1.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency">Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower</a> </li> <li> <span class="rank">2.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/mark-boyle-money">My year of living without money</a> </li> <li> <span class="rank">3.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/10/energy-efficiency-homes-cost-watchdog">Green home makeover will cost up to £15,000, says climate watchdog chief</a> </li> <li> <span class="rank">4.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciers">India 'arrogant' to deny global warming link to melting glaciers</a> </li> <li> <span class="rank">5.</span> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/green-living-blog/2009/nov/11/global-warming-seame-street">Are global warming and deforestation too scary for Sesame Street? | Leo Hickman</a> </li> <li class="more-most-viewed"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/mostviewed">More top stories</a> </li> </ol> </div> </div> </div> <div id="att-latest" class="att-tabs att-toggle-pane initially-off"> <ol> <li class="first"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/10/copenhagen-climate-change-summit-2c" name="&lid={latestFromSection}{Copenhagen climate talks: Time to change, no time to waste}&lpos={trail}{1}" class="small mask"> <img alt="Wildfires in California" src="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/11/10/1257894619424/Wildfires-in-California-001.jpg" width="140" height="84" class="image-in-trail "/> </a> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/10/copenhagen-climate-change-summit-2c" name="&lid={latestFromSection}{Copenhagen climate talks: Time to change, no time to waste}&lpos={trail}{2}" class="link-text">Time to change, no time to waste</a> </li> <li> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/10/energy-efficiency-homes-cost-watchdog" name="&lid={latestFromSection}{Green home makeover will cost up to £15,000, says climate watchdog chief}&lpos={trail}{3}" class="link-text">Makeover 'will cost up to £15,000'</a> </li> <li> <a 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src="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034im_/http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/commercial/2009/10/15/ecover-dishwasher.jpg" alt="" height="78" width="130"/> </a> <p> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardianecostore.co.uk/products/ecover/ecover-dishwasher-tablets/" name="&lid={commercialSlotMachineTwoRandom}{Ecover dishwasher tablets}&lpos={trail}{5}" class="link-text">Ecover dishwasher tablets</a> </p> <p>Exceptional washing results with no petrochemical based ingredients</p> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="capsule" id="most-viewed"> <div id="most" class="tabs-container"> <h3>Most viewed on guardian.co.uk</h3> <ul class="tabs javascript-on"> <li id="most-1-link"> <a href="#most-1" class="active">24 hours</a> </li> <li id="most-2-link"> <a href="#most-2" class="inactive">7 days</a> </li> </ul> <div class="pane-wrapper"> <div id="most-1" class="most-pane tab-toggle-pane"> <h3 class="js-hider">24 hours</h3> <ol> <li class="first"> <span 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class="books"> <li class="odd"> <div class="book-cover"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardianbookshop.co.uk/BerteShopWeb/viewProduct.do?ISBN=9780300112078" name="&lid={bookshop}{Charles Dickens|picture|Environment}&lpos={bookshop}{1}"> <img src="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034im_/http://static.guim.co.uk//thirdparty/bookshop/hbA/9780300112078.jpg" alt="Charles Dickens" height="100"/> </a> </div> <div class="book-text"> <ul> <li><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardianbookshop.co.uk/BerteShopWeb/viewProduct.do?ISBN=9780300112078" name="&lid={bookshop}{Charles Dickens|link|Environment}&lpos={bookshop}{2}">Charles Dickens</a></li> <li class="book-price">£25.00 with free UK delivery</li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="book-cover"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardianbookshop.co.uk/BerteShopWeb/viewProduct.do?ISBN=9780500258606" name="&lid={bookshop}{Athanasius Kirchers Theatre of the World|picture|Environment}&lpos={bookshop}{3}"> <img src="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034im_/http://static.guim.co.uk//thirdparty/bookshop/hbA/9780500258606.jpg" alt="Athanasius Kircher's Theatre of the World" height="100"/> </a> </div> <div class="book-text"> <ul> <li><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardianbookshop.co.uk/BerteShopWeb/viewProduct.do?ISBN=9780500258606" name="&lid={bookshop}{Athanasius Kirchers Theatre of the World|link|Environment}&lpos={bookshop}{4}">Athanasius Kircher's Theatre of the World</a></li> <li class="book-price">£40.00 with free UK delivery</li> </ul> </div> </li> </ul> <ul class="vertical-links"> <li> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardianbookshop.co.uk/BerteShopWeb/showSubCategories.do?categoryCode=614" name="&lid={bookshop}{Browse more nature and science books}&lpos={trail}{5}" style="display: inline;">Browse more nature and science books</a> </li> <li> <a 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href="#global-jobs-1" class="active">UK</a> </li> <li id="global-jobs-2-link"> <a href="#global-jobs-2" class="inactive">USA</a> </li> </ul> <div class="pane-wrapper"> <div id="global-jobs-1" class="global-jobs-pane tab-toggle-pane"> <h3 class="js-hider">UK</h3> <div class="capsule jobsbox"> <form action="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/searchjobs/" onsubmit="return doSearchAllSubmitUK( this );"> <fieldset> <input type="text" class="text plain-search" id="freetext-searchalljobs" name="freetext" value="Search all environment jobs" onfocus="this.value='';"/> <input type="hidden" name="csr" value="environment"/> <input type="hidden" name="keyword" id="keyword-searchalljobs" value=""/> <input type="submit" class="submit" name="go" value="Go"/> <input type="hidden" name="gusrc" value="gu_jobs_box_Environment"/> <input type="hidden" name="link" value="Environment_jbx_go"/> <input type="hidden" name="industry" value="141"/> </fieldset> </form> <p class="find-a-job"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/jobs/environment?gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Environment&link=Environment_jbx_brsesec" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Browse environment jobs}&lpos={jobsBox}{1}">Browse environment jobs</a> </p> <ul class="jobs"> <li class="odd"><h4> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/933421/director?RSSSearch=0&gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Environment&link=Environment_jbx_vac" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Director|Environment}&lpos={jobsBox}{2}">Director</a></h4> <p><span class="employer">narcolepsy association uk.</span></p> <p><span class="location">initially, based at home..</span></p> <p><span class="wage">£48,000 - £50,000.</span></p> </li> <li><h4> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/934494/head-of-civic-legal-and-democratic-services?RSSSearch=0&gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Environment&link=Environment_jbx_vac" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Head of Civic, Legal and Democratic Services|Environment}&lpos={jobsBox}{3}">Head of Civic, Legal and Democratic Services</a></h4> <p><span class="employer">city of york council.</span></p> <p><span class="location">our new head of civic, legal and democratic servic….</span></p> <p><span class="wage">To £73,000.</span></p> </li> <li class="odd"><h4> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/933660/service-manager-resources?RSSSearch=0&gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Environment&link=Environment_jbx_vac" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Service Manager - Resources|Environment}&lpos={jobsBox}{4}">Service Manager - Resources</a></h4> <p><span class="employer">shaftesbury young people.</span></p> <p><span class="location">south london.</span></p> <p><span class="wage">Up to £50k.</span></p> </li> </ul> <script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ function doSearchAllSubmitUK( form ) { var jobsSectionToSearch = 'environment'; var freeText = 'environment'; var searchTextField = document.getElementById( 'freetext-searchalljobs' ); var keywordElem = document.getElementById( 'keyword-searchalljobs' ); var isSectionSearch = function() { return jobsSectionToSearch != ''; } var textIsModified = function() { if( isSectionSearch() ) { return ( searchTextField.value != 'Search all ' + freeText + ' jobs' ); } return ( searchTextField.value != 'Search all jobs' ); } if( !textIsModified() ) { keywordElem.value = ''; if( isSectionSearch() ) { form.action = 'http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/jobs/environment'; return true; } form.action = 'http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/'; return true; } keywordElem.value = searchTextField.value; if (true) { _hbLink( '{jobsbox-searchalljobs}', '{jobsbox-searchalljobs}{1}' ); } return true; } //]]> </script> </div> </div> <div id="global-jobs-2" class="global-jobs-pane tab-toggle-pane initially-off"> <h3 class="js-hider">USA</h3> <div class="capsule jobsbox"> <form action="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.guardianjobs.com/" onsubmit="return doSearchAllSubmitUSA( this );"> <fieldset> <input type="text" class="text plain-search" id="freetext-searchalljobs" name="q" value="Search all environment jobs" onfocus="this.value='';"/> <input type="hidden" name="csr" value="environment"/> <input type="hidden" name="keyword" id="keyword-searchalljobs" value=""/> <input type="submit" class="submit" name="go" value="Go"/> <input type="hidden" name="gusrc" value="gu_jobs_box_Environment"/> <input type="hidden" name="link" value="Environment_jbx_go"/> <input type="hidden" name="industry" value="141"/> </fieldset> </form> <p class="find-a-job"> <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/jobs/environment?gusrc=gu_jobs_box_Environment&link=Environment_jbx_brsesec" name="&lid={jobsBox}{Browse environment jobs}&lpos={jobsBox}{1}">Browse environment jobs</a> </p> <textarea id="jobs-box-usa-textarea" style="display:none;"> {for result in results} <li> <h4> <a href="${result.url}">${result.jobtitle}</a> </h4> <p> <span class="description">${ result.snippet }</span> <span class="location">${ result.state }</span> </p> </li> {/for} </textarea> <script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ if (true) { var userip = '174.129.121.101'; var country = 'usa'; var isUSA = (country.toLowerCase() == 'usa') ? true : false; var jobsBoxView = new guardian.r2.JobsBoxView('jobs-box-usa', 'jobs-box-usa-textarea'); var jobsBoxService = new guardian.r2.JobsBoxService('%22Finance%22+or+%22Environment%22+or+%22Government%22', userip); /* category, location */ var jobsBoxController = new guardian.r2.JobsBoxController(jobsBoxView, jobsBoxService, isUSA); //view, service, locationIsUSA } //]]> </script> <ul id="jobs-box-usa" class="jobs"> <li class="javascript-on">Loading jobs...</li> </ul> <p class="attribution javascript-on"><a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20091112093034/http://www.indeed.com/">jobs</a> 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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower | Environment | The Guardian