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Mysteel周报：管坯价格偏强运行 预计下周无缝管价格或企稳（8.23-8.30）-我的钢铁网
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style='color:#3861ab'>无缝管</a>厂产量维持低位。原料价格偏强运行，山东无缝管厂即期利润有所恢复，但管厂订单一般，厂库有待进一步消化，多数管厂价格向下调整。截至8月30日全国28个主要城市无缝管均价环比继续跌13元/吨，多数市场基本持稳，部分市场小幅反弹。</p> <p><strong>一、</strong><strong>本周回顾</strong></p> <p>【价格方面】</p> <p>无缝管价格：据mysteel盘点数据显示：截至8月30日全国28个主要城市108*4.5mm无缝管均价4464元/吨，周环比下跌13元/吨，主流市场基本均出现持稳，部分市场小幅反弹。</p> <p>原料方面：截至本周五，山东管坯价格周环比上涨80元/吨，江苏管坯价格环比上涨80元/吨。</p> <p>表1：全国各城市无缝管价格（108*4.5mm）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/30/67e35d5f87bb42fd8948ec6ee4685919.png" width="1000" height="169" /></p> <p>管厂调价方面：据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研（34家样本无缝管厂），本周主流无缝管价格继续下跌，跌幅20-100元/吨。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/30/14dec996441f4750ad65d6be88b015a3.png" width="554" height="691" /></p> <p> </p> <p>表2：无缝管厂挂牌价格调整</p> <p>【利润方面】</p> <p>从无缝管利润表现来看，前期原料价格大幅下跌，本周管厂理论利润小幅回升，以20#<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>，Ф108*4.5mm无缝管为例，山东地区样本企业无缝管厂利润为20元/吨，周环比增加50元/吨，江苏地区样本企业无缝管厂利润为300元/吨，较上周增加30元/吨。</p> <p>图3：山东无缝管厂利润（单位：元/吨）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/30/beb4c3f6393b45c8962800d7c32ba183.jpg" width="517" height="342" /></p> <p>图4：江苏无缝管厂利润（单位：元/吨）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/30/0d15f39cba284b6bb3d60b0e31cbb7dc.png" width="507" height="329" /></p> <p> </p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">各地区评述：</p> <p align="justify">【华东地区】华东无缝管：本周山东、江苏热轧管坯价格周环比上涨30-100元/吨，部分山东主流管厂无缝管出厂价格周环比震荡调整20-50元/吨。华东部分主流市场无缝管价格周环比下跌30元/吨，其中上海市场无缝管价格周环比持平；杭州、南京市场无缝管价格周环比下跌30元/吨，跌幅较上周有所收窄。管厂方面，本周样本管厂产量微幅增加，厂内库存持续减少，社库持续下降，虽原料上涨幅度较大但市场依旧偏弱调整，商家整体补库意愿不强。市场方面，九月将至，市场成交表现欠佳，商家对九月行情预期谨慎乐观。本周市场跌幅有所收窄但上涨依旧乏力。预计短期内华东地区无缝管价格或将弱势盘整运行为主。</p> <p align="justify">【华南地区】本周华南地区无缝管价格小幅下跌。具体来看，无缝管108*4.5mm广州市场报4560元/吨，乐从市场报4510元/吨，周环比下跌50元/吨；广西市场报4550元/吨，周环比下跌30元/吨。原料方面，本周管坯价格小幅上调，山东管坯价格上涨30-80元/吨，江苏管坯价格上调100-110元/吨。原料管坯支撑力度增强主流无缝管出厂下调20-100元/吨。管厂产量继续下降和库存小幅增加，库存累库。市场方面，本周期货盘面先涨后跌，市场情绪有所修复，但原料支撑力度依旧不足，期钢反弹力度有限。下游需求维持低迷，华南市场出货整体表现一般，市场贸易商心态谨慎，多数仍是随行就市，以出货为主。综上所述，预计下周华南地区无缝管价格或震荡偏弱运行。</p> <p align="justify">【华中地区】本周华中无缝管市场价格基本弱势运行，郑州市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4440元/吨；长沙市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4520元/吨；武汉市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4360元/吨。原料方面，本周原料管坯价格逐步上涨，主流管厂价格随之小幅跟涨，目前管厂生产较为谨慎，价格调整较为谨慎。供应方面，无缝管厂出货速度较慢，大多以让利出货为主。需求方面，8月份底即将旺季，出货逐渐好转，华中区域贸易商利润维持薄利状态，补库热情一般，社会库存小幅收缩。综上所述，预计下周华中地区无缝管价格或震荡偏弱运行。</p> <p align="justify">【华北地区】本周华北地区无缝管价格弱势调整，北京市场108*4.5mm无缝管价格报4520元/吨，天津市场108*4.5mm无缝管价格报4400元/吨。本周原材料价格先涨后跌，周初价格上扬，无缝管终端采购放量，客户买涨心态较强，但整体来看，涨价持续性不强，周中过后，成交再度走弱。整体来看，进入九月，全国工程进度情况或出现转好，需求量较8月大概率增加，但由于上游生产企业供应压力较大，短期供需面承压，贸易商观望心态较强，还是以快进快出为主。综上，预计下周华北地区无缝管价格盘整运行。</p> <p align="justify">【西南地区】本周西南地区无缝管价格盘整运行，无缝管108*4.5mm成都市场报4560元/吨，重庆市场报4550元/吨，昆明市场报4630元/吨，贵阳市场报4620元/吨。原料方面，管坯周中后转弱，基本面支撑力度不足，供需矛盾仍存。市场方面，周中后期货转绿，成交量平平，淡季效应持续，下游观望情绪浓，贸易商继续累积库存，出货采取进快出的政策，然需求拐点未出现，市场心态不稳，贸易商报价以稳为主。近期外围管厂发货西南，在一定程度上影响本地管厂报价，为稳固市场地位，凤钢出厂价格仍有计划收缩。综合来看，下周西南无缝管市场价格或弱势调整运行。</p> <p align="justify">【西北地区】无缝管方面：本周西北无缝管市场价格普遍回落，西安市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4470元/吨，较上周末下跌30元/吨；兰州市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4570元/吨，较上周末下跌30元/吨；乌鲁木齐市场108*4.5无缝管价格报4670元/吨，较上周末下跌80元/吨。原料方面，原料方面，本周管坯价格小幅上调，山东管坯价格上涨30-80元/吨，江苏管坯价格上调100-110元/吨，无缝管厂出厂价格继续震荡，市场方面，近期期货整体走强，但无缝管整体幅度未调整到位，供需矛盾叠加价格疲软，市场采购积极性不高，贸易商谨慎补货，库存维持低位，综上所述，预计下周西北地区无缝管价格或震荡运行。 </p> <p align="justify">【东北地区】本周东北市场无缝管价格暂稳运行。价格方面，沈阳无缝管主流成交价108*4.5mm报4380元/吨，长春报4460元/吨，哈尔滨报4500元/吨。市场方面，本周期螺窄幅震荡运行，原料管坯方面，本周亦窄幅震荡运行，本周价格上涨至短期高点，市场情绪修复，北方市场成交有所好转，但本地管厂因生产调整，市场部分规格出现缺规格现象，贸易商方面报价优惠空间收缩，虽管厂价格有所下调，但下周或将陆续到库，缺货压力有所缓解，市场报价或有部分下调。利好消息已消化部分，后续仍是基本面交易，整体钢市需求较一般，加上钢厂复产有加速预期，后续价格或承压。综上所述，预计下周东北地区无缝管价格或偏弱运行。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>二、</strong><strong>下周预测</strong></p> <p align="justify">【库存方面】</p> <p align="justify">根据mysteel研全国无缝管（123家）商家库存情况来看，本周全国无缝管社会库存67.84万吨，环比减少0.88万吨。据mysteel调研全国（33家）无缝管生产企业情况来看，厂内库存74.12万吨，周环比减少1.27万吨，月同比减少2.77万吨；原料库存27.99万吨，周环比增加0.03万吨，月同比减少1.9万吨。无缝管需求一般，近期管厂利润有所好转，商家、管厂主动降库，上游供应量维持低位，预计库存小幅回落。</p> <p align="justify">图5：全国无缝<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010109-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢管</a>社会库存变化 （单位：万吨）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/30/b693d3afc30248639b75bf514b7df5c0.png" width="554" height="304" /></p> <p align="justify"> </p> <p align="justify">图6：样本生产企业库存变化（单位：万吨）</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/30/28c648f883134ff892dbe820ca459c5e.png" width="554" height="246" /> </p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="justify">本周产量29.46万吨，周环比增加0.02万吨，月同比减少2.12万吨；产能利用率64.02%，周环比增长0.04%，月同比下降4.61%；开工率51.64%，周环比增长2.46%，月同比下降0.82%。近期行情低位反弹，原料价格上升，管厂采坯积极性稍微好转，下周无缝管厂产量或小幅好转，厂库继续小幅回落。</p> <p align="justify">图7：样本管厂产能利用率、开工率变化情况</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/30/d84961b229e644c388281fac78a9d51b.png" width="554" height="210" /> </p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>【市场预测】</strong></p> <p>从价格方面来看：</p> <p>本周原料价格反弹，主流无缝管厂继续小幅补跌，市场价格基本止跌，短期成本端有所支撑。</p> <p>从基本面来看：即将进入传统旺季，市场需求有所好转，贸易商按需补库为主，无缝管产量或有提升空间，厂库短期有进一步回落。近期管坯价格进入震荡空间，市场心态有待修复。</p> <p>从心态方面来看：南北方高温天气退去，但下游客户资金情况仍然相对紧张，大型项目开工不足，短期贸易商以出货为主，市场竞争加剧。</p> <p>综合来看，本周原料价格震荡回弹，无缝管厂利润情况有所好转，需求整体小幅回暖，厂库有待进一步消化，短期无缝管市场还是以供需双弱为主，市场宏观面后期或有支撑，预计下周全国无缝管价格或企稳运行。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：姚蓓林 021-26096798 </br> 资讯监督：陈文花 021-26093859 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-169-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-169-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div 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