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Mysteel月报：8月型钢价格仍需等待上涨契机-我的钢铁网
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style='color:#3861ab'>H型钢</a>均价降幅约为200元/吨。7月份在弱现实影响下，市场情绪偏空，整体价格下跌，进入8月，供需错配问题依然存在，虽部分钢厂已经发布检修停产计划，但目前来看<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>减产力度一般，对基本面改善帮助效果不明显；7月底政治局会议，在要坚定不移实现今年经济社会发展目标的背景下，后面利好政策出台概率加大，或有希望提振市场信心，综合预计8月型钢价格以区间震荡运行为主。<br /><strong>一、7月份型钢市场回顾<br />1、7月型钢价格以趋弱运行为主</strong></p> <p>图1：全国型钢价格走势图</p> <p><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/01/0529c3b63a3c4fff9d8568938c0a23a8.png" alt="1722225404471" width="600" height="351" /></p> <p>数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p><strong>8月份全国型钢价格呈现震荡趋弱的走势。从市场调研情况来看，当前全国各地工程进度推进缓慢，回款周期长，需求疲软，另外受到螺纹新旧国标交替影响，期螺持续震荡下行，情绪面看空，导致整体价格出现下跌。</strong></p> <p><strong>2、上游生产情况</strong></p> <p>图2：工角槽产量<br /><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/01/d0d0fcd05cfd4e559d503650003f7691.png" alt="1722225674969" width="600" height="350" /></p> <p><br />图3：H型钢产量</p> <p> </p> <p>截至到8月2日，全国工角槽产量35.67万吨，较月初（32.12）增加3.55万吨；全国工角槽钢厂厂内库存109.73万吨,较月初（105.46）增加4.27万吨。H型钢周实际产量28.59万吨，较月初（29.7）减少1.11万吨；厂内库存25.39万吨，较月初（24.2）增加1.19万吨。</p> <p><strong>从供给端来看，型钢厂月初受到利润亏损、库存大等因素影响，部分厂家选择停产检修，月中因成本端价格下跌，利润得到一定修复，厂家恢复生产，但下游采购积极性不高，出货一般，导致厂内库存压力加大。</strong></p> <p><strong>二、8月展望</strong></p> <p>1、宏观方面：国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》,直接安排超长期特别国债资金，用于支持地方自主提升消费品以旧换新能力，钢材有小幅改善预期；美联储降息预期反复扰动，流动性可能会边际改善，但不足以对价格形成大幅反弹。<br /> 2、需求方面：百年建筑调研，截至7月30日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为62.05%，周环比下降0.30个百分点；新开工订单环比增速为-0.56%，较上期下降0.7个点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为64.82%，周环比下降0.06个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为46.77%，周环比下降1.23个百分点。虽然按照传统来讲需求一般会在8月中下旬出现回暖迹象，但目前数据显示下游基本面改善不足，资金面上也未有明显起色；钢材出口端需求尚可，但国内制造业部分行业用钢需求仍有疲态，<strong>预计8月型钢需求虽有所恢复，但难有大幅回升空间。<br /></strong><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/01/3c23ba1c2f55408da79214eec667aa9f.png" alt="1722150795086(1)" width="600" height="308" /></p> <p><img style="max-width: 100%;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/01/049168514c474e88986ff9db6e21389e.png" alt="1722233949909" width="600" height="311" /></p> <p>3、供应及库存方面：从供应来看，调坯轧钢厂利润处于亏损状态，长流程钢厂尚有即时利润，目前来看钢企自主限产的意愿不大。截至 8月2日<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>型钢社会库存统计：全国工角槽库存49.59万吨；全国H型钢库存64.28万吨，整体社库压力和去年相比压力不大，工角槽社库减量明显，大部分非协议，而H型钢相对库存维持较高，明显下半年去库压力高于上半年，主要来自于供给快速提升，厂库压力转移，对价格上涨有一定抑制作用。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 412.25px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/01/8c22a40067db42abb6054105a19643d2.jpg" width="600" height="412" /></p> <p>4、总结：目前市场核心驱动在于宏观政策方面利好消息的刺激和上游减产幅度问题，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>第一轮提降落地，钢厂利润有所恢复，在上游减产不明确情况下，型钢基本面尚不足以有明显改善，价格或仍在底部震荡运行，中下旬出三伏天后，下游需求预期或将来临，情绪或可带动价格一起试探回升，另外一季度GDP增长5.3%，2季度GDP增长4.7%，三中大会结果是要完成目标5%，按照目前情况3季度进入尾声可能有发力预期，<strong>因此8月型钢或有修复性反弹预期，综合来看整体价格区间震荡运行概率较大，重点需关注宏观政策和上游减产方面的消息。</strong></p> 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