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Mysteel半年报：2024年上半年高粱市场回顾及下半年展望-我的钢铁网
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15:46</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="4739" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p align="left"><strong>概述：</strong></p> <p align="left"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">2024年上半年，国产高粱偏弱运行为主，进口高粱呈现连续下跌趋势，截至5月27日，国产高粱均价最高价出现在4月下旬的的1.40元/斤，最低价格出现在1月份，价格为1.30元/斤。进口高粱最低价格出现5月底的2410元/吨，最高价格在1月中旬，达到2840元/。</span></strong></p> <p align="left"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">2024年1-5月份，累计进口量364.87万吨，累计进口量同比增加200.87万吨，累计同比增幅122.43%。上半年港口货源供应相对充足，但下游需求清淡， 市场整体供大于求。</span></strong></p> <p align="left"><strong>一、2024上半年市场回顾</strong></p> <p align="left"><strong>1.1高粱价格走势回顾</strong></p> <p align="left">1.1.1 国产高粱价格走势回顾</p> <p align="left"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/ac5b528ec94d4d4abc320893b5b6e8c0.png" alt="" width="500" height="299" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="left">2024年上半年，国产高粱的价格呈现稳中整理的趋势，截至6月30日，国产高粱均价最高价出现在4月下旬的的1.40元/斤，最低价格出现在1月份，价格为1.30元/斤。从5月初开始价格基本保持平稳，主因市场购销基本结束，粮源较少并集中，下游需求支撑弱势，受成本支撑，价格变化不大。</p> <p align="left"><strong>1.1.2 进口高粱价格走势回顾</strong></p> <p align="left"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/d10e783259214d649cc2d05cee399e8c.png" alt="" width="500" height="305" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="left">2024年上半年，进口美粱价格呈现持续下跌态势，进口美粱的最低价格出现5月底的2410元/吨，最高价格在1月中旬，达到2840元/吨，最高价格和最低价格差价430元/吨。进口高粱从1月底开始持续下跌，主要是因为供应宽松，港口库存充足，下游需求持续清淡，酒厂基本按需采购，心态谨慎，贸易商出货积极。</p> <p align="left"><strong>1.2供应格局及变化趋势分析</strong></p> <p align="left">1.2.1国产高粱供应分析</p> <p align="left"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/b155106ebb6845a2900107c07291dad8.png" alt="" width="500" height="301" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="left">从国产高粱的售粮进度来看，2024年上半年农户售粮进度慢于往年。新粮上市后价格一路下跌，收购主体囤粮较为谨慎，基本按需采购，上半年下游需求延续清淡，购销仍旧不快。</p> <p align="left"><strong>1.2.2</strong><strong>中国高粱进口量分析</strong></p> <p align="left"><strong><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/bf9ed2a373fe4248ac9ef73581fcf8d2.png" alt="" width="500" height="324" /><br /></strong></p> <p align="right">数据来源：海关总署</p> <p align="left">2024年1-5月，2024年1-5月期间累计进口量364.87万吨，累计进口量同比增加200.87万吨。累计同比增幅122.43%。由上图中可以看出，进口量基本保持在55万吨以上，2024年2月份，是上半年进口量最大的月份，进口量达到106.35万吨。</p> <p align="left">2024年上半年，中国高粱的主要进口国依次为：美国、澳大利亚、阿根廷、乌拉圭、缅甸五个国家，美国的进口量仍居第一位，乌拉圭同比进口量增加明显。</p> <p align="left"><strong>1.2.3进口高粱库存分析</strong></p> <p align="left"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/ac0aaeb18b944cdd93d75f488114bd5c.png" alt="" width="500" height="253" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：钢联数据</p> <p align="left">从上图中可以看出，2024年上半年广东港口高粱库存增加至高点后一直维持在50万吨左右，库存水平最低出现在第1周，港口库存为23.5万吨，最高水平出现再第7周，港口库存为81.9万吨，整体库存相较2023年同期，一直居高不下。</p> <p align="left"><strong>1.3需求格局及变化趋势分析</strong></p> <p align="left">1.3.1饲用需求</p> <p align="left"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/aacaa7e11ac34bbc97c6f5568043a589.png" alt="" width="500" height="305" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源： 中国饲料工业协会</p> <p align="left">2024年1-5月，全国工业饲料总产量11833万吨，同比2023年减少323.5万吨，总量减幅2.66%。总产量来看，饲料的总产量较去年小幅下降，但2024年上半年玉米价格较低，高粱无价格优势，高粱作为替代的性价比较低，导致2024年上半年高粱在饲料行业中的用量偏少。</p> <p align="left"><strong>1.3.2酿造需求</strong></p> <p align="left"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/e51a0306446e42fba2dd3e4af3c3c9b1.png" alt="" width="500" height="299" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源： 工信部</p> <p align="left">2024年1-5月，全国规模以上酿酒企业白酒产量达到197.6万千升，同比2023年减少22.8万千升，从上半年中国白酒产量来看，中国规模以上白酒产量较2023年仍然是小幅下降的趋势。中小型及家庭酿酒作坊停工较多，对于高粱的需求下降明显。</p> <p align="left"><strong>1.3.3出口分析</strong></p> <p align="left"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/27/0de6b4c3e4c045cf967f7e57edd4f56c.png" alt="" width="500" height="269" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源： 海关总署</p> <p align="left">2024年1-5月份，中国高粱的累计出口量为1153.61吨，较去年同期累计出口量增加238.15吨，同比增加26.01%。 主要出口国家和地区为：韩国、智力、越南、日本、马来西亚、中国香港等。其中，韩国为出口量最大的国家。但整体出口量较少，对行情影响不大。</p> <p align="left"><strong>二、2024下半年市场展望</strong></p> <p align="left"><strong>2.1 2024下半年供需格局展望</strong></p> <p align="left"><strong>2.1.1、供应趋势预测</strong></p> <p align="left">2024年下半年是高粱收获的季节也是市场购销活动的旺季。从9月份开始，市场高粱陆续成熟收割，根据前期调研的种植面积情况，2024年种植面积较2023年增加20%左右，排除恶劣天气的情况下，产量将增加明显。从进口方面看，高粱的进口国家主要是美国和澳大利亚，美国农业部预测产量将增加20%左右，两国的成熟季节也在下半年，下半年市场供应量将增加。但从高粱市场的总体供应量来说，供应量较去年增加明显。</p> <p align="left"><strong>2.1.2、需求趋势预测</strong></p> <p align="left">2024年上半年白酒行业仍处在调整期，整体产量下滑，白酒产业正在向优势产区、优势企业、优势品牌集中，行业集中化的发展趋势变得愈发明显，白酒高端化的趋势不会改变，对高粱的需求更加注重质量，但整体需求量将小幅下降。饲料用粮方面，玉米、小麦价格较低，高粱价格优势不明显，饲料企业对高粱的用量较低。</p> <p align="left"><strong>2.2 2024下半年价格行情展望</strong></p> <p align="left">下半年，随着高粱进入成熟期，天气的影响对高粱的产量及质量有着较为重要的影响，若在高粱的抽穗期和灌浆期，天气良好，则高粱的产量及质量有较好的保证，整体产量还要继续关注上市前的天气情况。2024年高粱的种植面积增加，进口货源充足，加之下游需求的减少，对囤粮主体和贸易商来说，都将更加谨慎。预计2024年下半年国产高粱上市后价格将明显下跌，整体价格低于去年同期；进口高粱9月份以后酒厂开工陆续采购，价格或小幅上涨，但整体需求支撑弱势，价格仍有回调风险。</p> <p align="left"> </p> <p align="left"> </p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：陈丽君 021-26090199 </br> 资讯监督：王涛 021-26096789 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4125-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a 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