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probabilistic risk assessment</title> <meta name="description" content="Search results for: probabilistic risk assessment"> <meta name="keywords" content="probabilistic risk assessment"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, minimum-scale=1, maximum-scale=1, user-scalable=no"> <meta charset="utf-8"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" rel="shortcut icon"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/bootstrap-4.2.1/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/fontawesome/css/all.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/css/site.css?v=150220211555" rel="stylesheet"> </head> <body> <header> <div class="container"> <nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg navbar-light"> <a class="navbar-brand" href="https://waset.org"> <img src="https://cdn.waset.org/static/images/wasetc.png" alt="Open Science Research Excellence" title="Open Science Research Excellence" /> 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action="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search"> <div id="custom-search-input"> <div class="input-group"> <i class="fas fa-search"></i> <input type="text" class="search-query" name="q" placeholder="Author, Title, Abstract, Keywords" value="probabilistic risk assessment"> <input type="submit" class="btn_search" value="Search"> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div class="row mt-3"> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Commenced</strong> in January 2007</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Frequency:</strong> Monthly</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Edition:</strong> International</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Paper Count:</strong> 10891</div> </div> </div> </div> <h1 class="mt-3 mb-3 text-center" style="font-size:1.6rem;">Search results for: probabilistic risk assessment</h1> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10891</span> Comparison between Deterministic and Probabilistic Stability Analysis, Featuring Consequent Risk Assessment </h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Isabela%20Moreira%20Queiroz">Isabela Moreira Queiroz </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management.  <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20methods" title="probabilistic methods">probabilistic methods</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20assessment" title=" risk assessment"> risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20management" title=" risk management"> risk management</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=slope%20stability" title=" slope stability"> slope stability</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/46673/comparison-between-deterministic-and-probabilistic-stability-analysis-featuring-consequent-risk-assessment" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/46673.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">391</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10890</span> Integrating Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Assessment to Decrease Risk & Energy Consumption in a Typical PWR</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ebrahim%20Ghanbari">Ebrahim Ghanbari</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mohammad%20Reza%20Nematollahi"> Mohammad Reza Nematollahi</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Integrating deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment (IDPSA) is one of the most commonly used issues in the field of safety analysis of power plant accident. It has also been recognized today that the role of human error in creating these accidents is not less than systemic errors, so the human interference and system errors in fault and event sequences are necessary. The integration of these analytical topics will be reflected in the frequency of core damage and also the study of the use of water resources in an accident such as the loss of all electrical power of the plant. In this regard, the SBO accident was simulated for the pressurized water reactor in the deterministic analysis issue, and by analyzing the operator's behavior in controlling the accident, the results of the combination of deterministic and probabilistic assessment were identified. The results showed that the best performance of the plant operator would reduce the risk of an accident by 10%, as well as a decrease of 6.82 liters/second of the water sources of the plant. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=IDPSA" title="IDPSA">IDPSA</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=human%20error" title=" human error"> human error</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=SBO" title=" SBO"> SBO</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk" title=" risk"> risk</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/126612/integrating-deterministic-and-probabilistic-safety-assessment-to-decrease-risk-energy-consumption-in-a-typical-pwr" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/126612.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">129</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10889</span> The Establishment of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Analysis Methodology for Dry Storage Concrete Casks Using SAPHIRE 8</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=J.%20R.%20Wang">J. R. Wang</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=W.%20Y.%20Cheng"> W. Y. Cheng</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=J.%20S.%20Yeh"> J. S. Yeh</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=S.%20W.%20Chen"> S. W. Chen</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Y.%20M.%20Ferng"> Y. M. Ferng</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=J.%20H.%20Yang"> J. H. Yang</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=W.%20S.%20Hsu"> W. S. Hsu</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=C.%20Shih"> C. Shih</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=PRA" title="PRA">PRA</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=dry%20storage" title=" dry storage"> dry storage</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=concrete%20cask" title=" concrete cask"> concrete cask</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=SAPHIRE" title=" SAPHIRE"> SAPHIRE</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/104749/the-establishment-of-probabilistic-risk-assessment-analysis-methodology-for-dry-storage-concrete-casks-using-saphire-8" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/104749.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">212</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10888</span> Railway Accidents: Using the Global Railway Accident Database and Evaluation for Risk Analysis</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mathias%20Linden">Mathias Linden</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Andr%C3%A9%20Schneider"> André Schneider</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Harald%20F.%20O.%20von%20Korflesch"> Harald F. O. von Korflesch</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=accident%20causes" title="accident causes">accident causes</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=accident%20costs" title=" accident costs"> accident costs</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=accident%20database" title=" accident database"> accident database</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=global%20railway%20accident%20database%20%26%20evaluation" title=" global railway accident database & evaluation"> global railway accident database & evaluation</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=GRADE" title=" GRADE"> GRADE</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20safety%20assessment" title=" probabilistic safety assessment"> probabilistic safety assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=PSA" title=" PSA"> PSA</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=railway%20accidents" title=" railway accidents"> railway accidents</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20analysis" title=" risk analysis"> risk analysis</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/68572/railway-accidents-using-the-global-railway-accident-database-and-evaluation-for-risk-analysis" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/68572.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">359</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10887</span> Canada Deuterium Uranium Updated Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Canadian Nuclear Plants</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hossam%20Shalabi">Hossam Shalabi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=George%20Hadjisophocleous"> George Hadjisophocleous</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fire%20safety" title="fire safety">fire safety</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=CANDU" title=" CANDU"> CANDU</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=nuclear" title=" nuclear"> nuclear</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fuel%20densities" title=" fuel densities"> fuel densities</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=FDS" title=" FDS"> FDS</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=qualitative%20analysis" title=" qualitative analysis"> qualitative analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fire%20probabilistic%20risk%20assessment" title=" fire probabilistic risk assessment"> fire probabilistic risk assessment</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/106512/canada-deuterium-uranium-updated-fire-probabilistic-risk-assessment-model-for-canadian-nuclear-plants" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/106512.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">136</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10886</span> Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Koeberg Spent Fuel Pool</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sibongiseni%20Thabethe">Sibongiseni Thabethe</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ian%20Korir"> Ian Korir</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The effective management of spent fuel pool (SFP) safety has been raised as one of the emerging issues to further enhance nuclear installation safety after the Fukushima accident on March 11, 2011. Before then, SFP safety-related issues have been mainly focused on (a) controlling the configuration of the fuel assemblies in the pool with no loss of pool coolants and (b) ensuring adequate pool storage space to prevent fuel criticality owing to chain reactions of the fission products and the ability for neutron absorption to keep the fuel cool. A probabilistic safety (PSA) assessment was performed using the systems analysis program for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) computer code. Event and fault tree analysis was done to develop a PSA model for the Koeberg SFP. We present preliminary PSA results of events that lead to boiling and cause fuel uncovering, resulting in possible fuel damage in the Koeberg SFP. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=computer%20code" title="computer code">computer code</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fuel%20assemblies" title=" fuel assemblies"> fuel assemblies</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20risk%20assessment" title=" probabilistic risk assessment"> probabilistic risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=spent%20fuel%20pool" title=" spent fuel pool"> spent fuel pool</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/131191/probabilistic-safety-assessment-of-koeberg-spent-fuel-pool" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/131191.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">169</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10885</span> Conservativeness of Probabilistic Constrained Optimal Control Method for Unknown Probability Distribution</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Tomoaki%20Hashimoto">Tomoaki Hashimoto</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method with the unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with the unknown probability distribution. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=optimal%20control" title="optimal control">optimal control</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=stochastic%20systems" title=" stochastic systems"> stochastic systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=discrete%20time%20systems" title=" discrete time systems"> discrete time systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20constraints" title=" probabilistic constraints"> probabilistic constraints</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/35585/conservativeness-of-probabilistic-constrained-optimal-control-method-for-unknown-probability-distribution" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/35585.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">580</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10884</span> A Joint Possibilistic-Probabilistic Tool for Load Flow Uncertainty Assessment-Part I: Formulation</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Morteza%20Aien">Morteza Aien</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Masoud%20Rashidinejad"> Masoud Rashidinejad</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mahmud%20Fotuhi-Firuzabad"> Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20uncertainty%20modeling" title="probabilistic uncertainty modeling">probabilistic uncertainty modeling</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=possibilistic%20uncertainty%20modeling" title=" possibilistic uncertainty modeling"> possibilistic uncertainty modeling</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=uncertain%20load%20flow" title=" uncertain load flow"> uncertain load flow</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=wind%20turbine%20generator" title=" wind turbine generator"> wind turbine generator</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/15352/a-joint-possibilistic-probabilistic-tool-for-load-flow-uncertainty-assessment-part-i-formulation" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/15352.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">561</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10883</span> Toward a Risk Assessment Model Based on Multi-Agent System for Cloud Consumer</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Saadia%20Drissi">Saadia Drissi</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=cloud%20computing" title="cloud computing">cloud computing</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20assessment%20model" title=" risk assessment model"> risk assessment model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=multi-agent%20system" title=" multi-agent system"> multi-agent system</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=AHP%20model" title=" AHP model"> AHP model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=cloud%20consumer" title=" cloud consumer"> cloud consumer</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/10205/toward-a-risk-assessment-model-based-on-multi-agent-system-for-cloud-consumer" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/10205.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">545</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10882</span> Solutions to Probabilistic Constrained Optimal Control Problems Using Concentration Inequalities</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Tomoaki%20Hashimoto">Tomoaki Hashimoto</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Recently, optimal control problems subject to probabilistic constraints have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in optimization problems, several methods haven been proposed to deal with probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are transformed to deterministic constraints that are tractable in optimization problems. This paper examines a method for transforming probabilistic constraints into deterministic constraints for a class of probabilistic constrained optimal control problems. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=optimal%20control" title="optimal control">optimal control</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=stochastic%20systems" title=" stochastic systems"> stochastic systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=discrete-time%20systems" title=" discrete-time systems"> discrete-time systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20constraints" title=" probabilistic constraints"> probabilistic constraints</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/57973/solutions-to-probabilistic-constrained-optimal-control-problems-using-concentration-inequalities" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/57973.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">278</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10881</span> Seismic Directionality Effects on In-Structure Response Spectra in Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sittipong%20Jarernprasert">Sittipong Jarernprasert</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Enrique%20Bazan-Zurita"> Enrique Bazan-Zurita</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Paul%20C.%20Rizzo"> Paul C. Rizzo</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=seismic" title="seismic">seismic</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=directionality" title=" directionality"> directionality</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=in-structure%20response%20spectra" title=" in-structure response spectra"> in-structure response spectra</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20risk%20assessment" title=" probabilistic risk assessment"> probabilistic risk assessment</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/18572/seismic-directionality-effects-on-in-structure-response-spectra-in-seismic-probabilistic-risk-assessment" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/18572.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">410</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10880</span> Logical-Probabilistic Modeling of the Reliability of Complex Systems</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sergo%20Tsiramua">Sergo Tsiramua</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sulkhan%20Sulkhanishvili"> Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Elisabed%20Asabashvili"> Elisabed Asabashvili</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Lazare%20Kvirtia"> Lazare Kvirtia</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of weights of elements. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Complex%20systems" title="Complex systems">Complex systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=logical-probabilistic%20methods" title=" logical-probabilistic methods"> logical-probabilistic methods</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=orthogonalization%20algorithm" title=" orthogonalization algorithm"> orthogonalization algorithm</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=reliability" title=" reliability"> reliability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=weight%20of%20element" title=" weight of element"> weight of element</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/174834/logical-probabilistic-modeling-of-the-reliability-of-complex-systems" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/174834.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">72</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10879</span> Implementation of an Economic – Probabilistic Model to Risk Analysis of ERP Project in Technological Innovation Firms – A Case Study of ICT Industry in Iran </h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Reza%20Heidari">Reza Heidari</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Maryam%20Amiri"> Maryam Amiri</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=cash%20flow%20categorization" title="cash flow categorization">cash flow categorization</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20evaluation" title=" economic evaluation"> economic evaluation</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic" title=" probabilistic"> probabilistic</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20assessment" title=" risk assessment"> risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=technological%20innovation" title=" technological innovation"> technological innovation</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/30784/implementation-of-an-economic-probabilistic-model-to-risk-analysis-of-erp-project-in-technological-innovation-firms-a-case-study-of-ict-industry-in-iran" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/30784.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">403</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10878</span> Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model in Agile Construction Environment</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Jolanta%20Tamo%C5%A1aitien%C4%97">Jolanta Tamošaitienė</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=assessment" title="assessment">assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=environment" title=" environment"> environment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=agile" title=" agile"> agile</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=model" title=" model"> model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk" title=" risk"> risk</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/84304/comprehensive-risk-assessment-model-in-agile-construction-environment" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/84304.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">255</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10877</span> A Joint Possibilistic-Probabilistic Tool for Load Flow Uncertainty Assessment-Part II: Case Studies</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Morteza%20Aien">Morteza Aien</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Masoud%20Rashidinejad"> Masoud Rashidinejad</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mahmud%20Fotuhi-Firuzabad"> Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Power systems are innately uncertain systems. To face with such uncertain systems, robust uncertainty assessment tools are appealed. This paper inspects the uncertainty assessment formulation of the load flow (LF) problem considering different kinds of uncertainties, developed in its companion paper through some case studies. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. The load and wind power generation are considered as probabilistic uncertain variables and the electric vehicles (EVs) and gas turbine distributed generation (DG) units are considered as possibilistic uncertain variables. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the system output parameters obtained by the pure probabilistic method lies within the belief and plausibility functions obtained by the joint propagation approach. Furthermore, the imprecision in the DG parameters is explicitly reflected by the gap between the belief and plausibility functions. This gap, due to the epistemic uncertainty on the DG resources parameters grows as the penetration level increases. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=electric%20vehicles" title="electric vehicles">electric vehicles</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=joint%20possibilistic-%20probabilistic%20uncertainty%20modeling" title=" joint possibilistic- probabilistic uncertainty modeling"> joint possibilistic- probabilistic uncertainty modeling</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=uncertain%20load%20flow" title=" uncertain load flow"> uncertain load flow</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=wind%20turbine%20generator" title=" wind turbine generator"> wind turbine generator</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/15353/a-joint-possibilistic-probabilistic-tool-for-load-flow-uncertainty-assessment-part-ii-case-studies" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/15353.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">431</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10876</span> Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=K.%20Sekulov%C3%A1">K. Sekulová</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=M.%20%C5%A0imon"> M. Šimon</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=ergonomics" title="ergonomics">ergonomics</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=musculoskeletal%20disorders" title=" musculoskeletal disorders"> musculoskeletal disorders</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=occupational%20diseases" title=" occupational diseases"> occupational diseases</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20factors" title=" risk factors"> risk factors</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/13024/model-of-msd-risk-assessment-at-workplace" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/13024.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">550</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10875</span> Holistic Risk Assessment Based on Continuous Data from the User’s Behavior and Environment</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Cinzia%20Carrodano">Cinzia Carrodano</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Dimitri%20Konstantas"> Dimitri Konstantas</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=continuous%20data" title="continuous data">continuous data</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=dynamic%20risk" title=" dynamic risk"> dynamic risk</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=holistic%20risk%20assessment" title=" holistic risk assessment"> holistic risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20concept" title=" risk concept"> risk concept</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/145051/holistic-risk-assessment-based-on-continuous-data-from-the-users-behavior-and-environment" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/145051.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">126</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10874</span> Health Risk Assessment of Trihalogenmethanes in Drinking Water</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Lenka%20Jesonkova">Lenka Jesonkova</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Frantisek%20Bozek"> Frantisek Bozek</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=drinking%20water" title="drinking water">drinking water</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=health%20risk%20assessment" title=" health risk assessment"> health risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=trihalogenmethanes" title=" trihalogenmethanes"> trihalogenmethanes</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=water%20pollution" title=" water pollution"> water pollution</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/2153/health-risk-assessment-of-trihalogenmethanes-in-drinking-water" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/2153.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">520</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10873</span> Logical-Probabilistic Modeling of the Reliability of Complex Systems</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sergo%20Tsiramua">Sergo Tsiramua</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sulkhan%20Sulkhanishvili"> Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Elisabed%20Asabashvili"> Elisabed Asabashvili</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Lazare%20Kvirtia"> Lazare Kvirtia</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models, and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. It is important to design systems based on structural analysis, research, and evaluation of efficiency indicators. One of the important efficiency criteria is the reliability of the system, which depends on the components of the structure. Quantifying the reliability of large-scale systems is a computationally complex process, and it is advisable to perform it with the help of a computer. Logical-probabilistic modeling is one of the effective means of describing the structure of a complex system and quantitatively evaluating its reliability, which was the basis of our application. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of “weights” of elements of system. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research, and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=complex%20systems" title="complex systems">complex systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=logical-probabilistic%20methods" title=" logical-probabilistic methods"> logical-probabilistic methods</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=orthogonalization%20algorithm" title=" orthogonalization algorithm"> orthogonalization algorithm</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=reliability%20of%20systems" title=" reliability of systems"> reliability of systems</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=%E2%80%9Cweights%E2%80%9D%20of%20elements" title=" “weights” of elements"> “weights” of elements</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/174609/logical-probabilistic-modeling-of-the-reliability-of-complex-systems" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/174609.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">66</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10872</span> Risk Assessment for International Investment: A Standardized Approach to Identify Risk, Risk Appetite, Risk Rating, Risk Treatment and Mitigation Plans</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Pui%20Yong%20Leo">Pui Yong Leo</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Normy%20Maziah%20Mohd%20Said"> Normy Maziah Mohd Said</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=international%20investment" title="international investment">international investment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=mitigation%20plans" title=" mitigation plans"> mitigation plans</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20appetite" title=" risk appetite"> risk appetite</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20assessment" title=" risk assessment"> risk assessment</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/61464/risk-assessment-for-international-investment-a-standardized-approach-to-identify-risk-risk-appetite-risk-rating-risk-treatment-and-mitigation-plans" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/61464.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">388</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10871</span> Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis of Excavation Induced Landslides Using Hermite Polynomial Chaos</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Schadrack%20Mwizerwa">Schadrack Mwizerwa</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The characterization and prediction of landslides are crucial for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. This research aims to develop a probabilistic framework for analyzing excavation-induced landslides, which is fundamental for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. The study uses Hermite polynomial chaos, a non-stationary random process, to analyze the stability of a slope and characterize the failure probability of a real landslide induced by highway construction excavation. The correlation within the data is captured using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion theory, and the finite element method is used to analyze the slope's stability. The research contributes to the field of landslide characterization by employing advanced random field approaches, providing valuable insights into the complex nature of landslide behavior and the effectiveness of advanced probabilistic models for risk assessment and management. The data collected from the Baiyuzui landslide, induced by highway construction, is used as an illustrative example. The findings highlight the importance of considering the probabilistic nature of landslides and provide valuable insights into the complex behavior of such hazards. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hermite%20polynomial%20chaos" title="Hermite polynomial chaos">Hermite polynomial chaos</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Karhunen-Loeve" title=" Karhunen-Loeve"> Karhunen-Loeve</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=slope%20stability" title=" slope stability"> slope stability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20analysis" title=" probabilistic analysis"> probabilistic analysis</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/176089/probabilistic-slope-stability-analysis-of-excavation-induced-landslides-using-hermite-polynomial-chaos" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/176089.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">76</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10870</span> Feasibility of an Extreme Wind Risk Assessment Software for Industrial Applications</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Francesco%20Pandolfi">Francesco Pandolfi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Georgios%20Baltzopoulos"> Georgios Baltzopoulos</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Iunio%20Iervolino"> Iunio Iervolino</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=component%20wind%20fragility" title="component wind fragility">component wind fragility</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20risk%20assessment" title=" probabilistic risk assessment"> probabilistic risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=vulnerability%20model" title=" vulnerability model"> vulnerability model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=wind-induced%20losses" title=" wind-induced losses"> wind-induced losses</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/133506/feasibility-of-an-extreme-wind-risk-assessment-software-for-industrial-applications" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/133506.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">181</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10869</span> Safety of Ports, Harbours, Marine Terminals: Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Dipak%20Sonawane">Dipak Sonawane</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sudarshan%20Daga"> Sudarshan Daga</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Somesh%20Gupta"> Somesh Gupta</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=quantitative%20risk%20assessment" title="quantitative risk assessment">quantitative risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=hazard%20assessment" title=" hazard assessment"> hazard assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=consequence%20analysis" title=" consequence analysis"> consequence analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=individual%20risk" title=" individual risk"> individual risk</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=societal%20risk" title=" societal risk"> societal risk</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/151443/safety-of-ports-harbours-marine-terminals-application-of-quantitative-risk-assessment" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/151443.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">80</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10868</span> Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects </h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Preeda%20Sansakorn">Preeda Sansakorn</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Min%20An"> Min An</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=safety%20risk%20assessment" title="safety risk assessment">safety risk assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=building%20construction%20safety" title=" building construction safety"> building construction safety</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fuzzy%20reasoning" title=" fuzzy reasoning"> fuzzy reasoning</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=construction%20risk%20assessment%20model" title=" construction risk assessment model"> construction risk assessment model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=building%20construction%20projects" title=" building construction projects"> building construction projects</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/28627/development-of-risk-assessment-and-occupational-safety-management-model-for-building-construction-projects" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/28627.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">491</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10867</span> Constructing a Probabilistic Ontology from a DBLP Data</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Emna%20Hlel">Emna Hlel</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Salma%20Jamousi"> Salma Jamousi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Abdelmajid%20Ben%20Hamadou"> Abdelmajid Ben Hamadou</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Every model for knowledge representation to model real-world applications must be able to cope with the effects of uncertain phenomena. One of main defects of classical ontology is its inability to represent and reason with uncertainty. To remedy this defect, we try to propose a method to construct probabilistic ontology for integrating uncertain information in an ontology modeling a set of basic publications DBLP (Digital Bibliography & Library Project) using a probabilistic model. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=classical%20ontology" title="classical ontology">classical ontology</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20ontology" title=" probabilistic ontology"> probabilistic ontology</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=uncertainty" title=" uncertainty"> uncertainty</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bayesian%20network" title=" Bayesian network"> Bayesian network</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/24225/constructing-a-probabilistic-ontology-from-a-dblp-data" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/24225.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">347</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10866</span> Reliability Analysis of Glass Epoxy Composite Plate under Low Velocity</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Shivdayal%20Patel">Shivdayal Patel</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Suhail%20Ahmad"> Suhail Ahmad </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=composites" title="composites">composites</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=damage%20propagation" title=" damage propagation"> damage propagation</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=low%20velocity%20impact" title=" low velocity impact"> low velocity impact</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probability%20of%20failure" title=" probability of failure"> probability of failure</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=uncertainty%20modeling" title=" uncertainty modeling"> uncertainty modeling</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/89359/reliability-analysis-of-glass-epoxy-composite-plate-under-low-velocity" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/89359.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">279</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10865</span> Stochastic Richelieu River Flood Modeling and Comparison of Flood Propagation Models: WMS (1D) and SRH (2D)</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Maryam%20Safrai">Maryam Safrai</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Tewfik%20Mahdi"> Tewfik Mahdi</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=flood%20modeling" title="flood modeling">flood modeling</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=HEC-RAS" title=" HEC-RAS"> HEC-RAS</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=model%20comparison" title=" model comparison"> model comparison</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Monte%20Carlo%20simulation" title=" Monte Carlo simulation"> Monte Carlo simulation</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probabilistic%20flooded%20area" title=" probabilistic flooded area"> probabilistic flooded area</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=SRH-2D" title=" SRH-2D"> SRH-2D</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=WMS" title=" WMS"> WMS</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/107620/stochastic-richelieu-river-flood-modeling-and-comparison-of-flood-propagation-models-wms-1d-and-srh-2d" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/107620.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">140</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10864</span> Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Repeatedly Used Edible Oils and Finger Foods</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Suraj%20Sam%20Issaka">Suraj Sam Issaka</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Anita%20Asamoah"> Anita Asamoah</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Abass%20Gibrilla"> Abass Gibrilla</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Joseph%20Richmond%20Fianko"> Joseph Richmond Fianko</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of organic compounds that can form in edible oils during repeated frying and accumulate in fried foods. This study assesses the chances of health risks (carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic) due to PAHs levels in popular finger foods (bean cakes, plantain chips, doughnuts) fried in edible oils (mixed vegetable, sunflower, soybean) from the Ghanaian market. Employing probabilistic health risk assessment that considers variability and uncertainty in exposure and risk estimates provides a more realistic representation of potential health risks. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations were used to estimate carcinogenic, mutagenic, and non-carcinogenic risks for different age groups (A: 6-10 years, B: 11-20 years, C: 20-70 years), food types (bean cake, plantain chips, doughnut), oil types (soybean, mixed vegetable, sunflower), and re-usage frying oil frequencies (once, twice, thrice). Our results suggest that, for age Group A, doughnuts posed the highest probability of carcinogenic risk (91.55%) exceeding the acceptable threshold, followed by bean cakes (43.87%) and plantain chips (7.72%), as well as the highest probability of unacceptable mutagenic risk (89.2%), followed by bean cakes (40.32%). Among age Group B, doughnuts again had the highest probability of exceeding carcinogenic risk limits (51.16%) and mutagenic risk limits (44.27%). At the same time, plantain chips exhibited the highest maximum carcinogenic risk. For adults age Group C, bean cakes had the highest probability of unacceptable carcinogenic (50.88%) and mutagenic risks (46.44%), though plantain chips showed the highest maximum values for both carcinogenic and mutagenic risks in this age group. Also, on non-carcinogenic risks across different age groups, it was found that age Group A) who consumed doughnuts had a 68.16% probability of a hazard quotient (HQ) greater than 1, suggesting potential cognitive impairment and lower IQ scores due to early PAH exposure. This group also faced risks from consuming plantain chips and bean cake. For age Group B, the consumption of plantain chips was associated with a 36.98% probability of HQ greater than 1, indicating a potential risk of reduced lung function. In age Group C, the consumption of plantain chips was linked to a 35.70% probability of HQ greater than 1, suggesting a potential risk of cardiovascular diseases. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=PAHs" title="PAHs">PAHs</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fried%20foods" title=" fried foods"> fried foods</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=carcinogenic%20risk" title=" carcinogenic risk"> carcinogenic risk</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=non-carcinogenic%20risk" title=" non-carcinogenic risk"> non-carcinogenic risk</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Monte%20Carlo%20simulations" title=" Monte Carlo simulations"> Monte Carlo simulations</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/192218/probabilistic-health-risk-assessment-of-polycyclic-aromatic-hydrocarbons-in-repeatedly-used-edible-oils-and-finger-foods" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/192218.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">12</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10863</span> Risk Analysis of Leaks from a Subsea Oil Facility Based on Fuzzy Logic Techniques</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bel%C3%A9n%20Vinaixa%20Kinnear">Belén Vinaixa Kinnear</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Arturo%20Hidalgo%20L%C3%B3pez"> Arturo Hidalgo López</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bernardo%20Elembo%20Wilasi"> Bernardo Elembo Wilasi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Pablo%20Fern%C3%A1ndez%20P%C3%A9rez"> Pablo Fernández Pérez</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Cecilia%20Hern%C3%A1ndez%20Fuentealba"> Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insuﬃciency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=expert%20judgment" title="expert judgment">expert judgment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=probability%20assessment" title=" probability assessment"> probability assessment</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fault%20tree%20analysis" title=" fault tree analysis"> fault tree analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=risk%20analysis" title=" risk analysis"> risk analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=oil%20%20pipelines" title=" oil pipelines"> oil pipelines</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=subsea%20production%20system" title=" subsea production system"> subsea production system</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=drilling" title=" drilling"> drilling</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=quantitative%20risk%20analysis" title=" quantitative risk analysis"> quantitative risk analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=leakage%20failure" title=" leakage failure"> leakage failure</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=top%20event" title=" top event"> top event</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=off-shore%20industry" title=" off-shore industry"> off-shore industry</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/141591/risk-analysis-of-leaks-from-a-subsea-oil-facility-based-on-fuzzy-logic-techniques" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/141591.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">190</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">10862</span> Probabilistic Robustness Assessment of Structures under Sudden Column-Loss Scenario</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ali%20Y%20Al-Attraqchi">Ali Y Al-Attraqchi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=P.%20Rajeev"> P. Rajeev</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=M.%20Javad%20Hashemi"> M. Javad Hashemi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Riadh%20Al-Mahaidi"> Riadh Al-Mahaidi</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fire" title="fire">fire</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=nonlinear%20incremental%20dynamic%20analysis" title=" nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis"> nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=progressive%20collapse" title=" progressive collapse"> progressive collapse</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=structural%20engineering" title=" structural engineering"> structural engineering</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/61232/probabilistic-robustness-assessment-of-structures-under-sudden-column-loss-scenario" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> 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