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Any Brexit deal will hit UK economy - government paper - BBC News

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contenteditable="true">http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42867668</a> </div> <a class="twite__read-more" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.co.uk/faqs/questions/bbc_online/sharing">Read more about sharing.</a> <p class="twite__new-window" aria-hidden="true">These are external links and will open in a new window</p> <button class="twite__close-button"> <span class="off-screen">Close share panel</span> <div class="twite__close-button-graphic" aria-hidden="true"></div> </button> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div id="topic-tags"><div id="u28609871747903526"><div class="tags-container"><span class="off-screen">Related Topics</span><ul class="tags-list"><li class="tags-list__tags" data-entityid="topic_link_top"><a href="/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit">Brexit</a></li></ul></div></div></div> </div> </div> <div class="story-body__inner" property="articleBody"> <figure class="media-landscape no-caption full-width lead"> <span class="image-and-copyright-container"> <img class="js-image-replace" alt="UK and EU flags" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946im_/https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/15770/production/_99802978_flags_pa.jpg" width="976" height="549"> <span class="off-screen">Image copyright</span> <span class="story-image-copyright">PA</span> </span> </figure><p class="story-body__introduction">The UK economy will grow more slowly outside the European Union, no matter what deal is struck with Brussels, a leaked government document suggests.</p><p>The <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946/https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be?utm_term=.rkzNVerE6#.gtPbXNpjn" class="story-body__link-external">BuzzFeed News website reports the Whitehall analysis</a> found growth over the next 15 years could be up to 8% lower than if the UK stayed in the EU.</p><p>The document is said to look at the likely impact of different scenarios. </p><p>Government sources say the UK will not be worse off, and its preferred bespoke trade deal option was not analysed. </p><p>Meanwhile, the international trade secretary Liam Fox has said some fellow Leave campaigners must now accept that they will not achieve their vision of Brexit.</p><div id="bbccom_mpu_1_2_3" class="bbccom_slot mpu-ad" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="bbccom_advert"> <script type="text/javascript"> /**/ (function() { if (window.bbcdotcom && bbcdotcom.adverts && bbcdotcom.adverts.slotAsync) { bbcdotcom.adverts.slotAsync('mpu', [1,2,3]); } })(); /**/ </script> </div> </div><p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946/https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5454402/trade-chief-liam-fox-tells-eurosceptics-to-live-with-disappointment-and-accept-softer-brexit/" class="story-body__link-external">Speaking to the Sun newspaper</a>, Mr Fox said: "I know there are always disappointed individuals but they're going to have to live with disappointment."</p><p>Chancellor Philip Hammond last week suggested the UK and EU economies could only move "very modestly" apart after Brexit. </p><p>His remarks sparked outrage from backers of Leave and reports that the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42857775" class="story-body__link">prime minister was struggling to keep her party together</a>.</p><h2 class="story-body__crosshead">'Early draft'</h2><p>According to Buzzfeed, the leaked document was titled EU Exit Analysis - Cross Whitehall Briefing and drawn up for the Department for Exiting the EU.</p><p>It suggests UK economic growth would be 8% lower than current forecasts, in the years ahead, if the country left the bloc with no deal and reverted to World Trade Organisation rules. </p><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"> <li class="story-body__list-item"><a href="/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42861496" class="story-body__link">EU sets out Brexit transition demands</a></li> <li class="story-body__list-item"><a href="/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887" class="story-body__link">Brexit: All you need to know</a></li> <li class="story-body__list-item"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42867852" class="story-body__link">Foreign adventures cannot obscure May's Brexit backdrop</a></li> </ul><p>It says growth would be 5% lower if Britain negotiated a free trade deal and 2% lower even if the UK were to continue to adhere to the rules of the single market. </p><p>The government sources point out that the document has not modelled the effect of a bespoke deal covering trade and financial services - the government's preferred scenario - and it does not attempt to anticipate the outcome of negotiations. </p><figure class="media-landscape has-caption full-width"> <span class="image-and-copyright-container"> <div class="js-delayed-image-load" data-alt="Liam Fox" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946oe_/https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/6D10/production/_99802972_liamfox_reuters.jpg" data-width="976" data-height="549"></div> <span class="off-screen">Image copyright</span> <span class="story-image-copyright">Reuters</span> </span> <figcaption class="media-caption"> <span class="off-screen">Image caption</span> <span class="media-caption__text"> Liam Fox says some Brexit supporters must "live with disappointment" </span> </figcaption> </figure><p>The BBC understands the Treasury contributed to the document but sources say it is part of a much wider range of work going on in Whitehall. </p><p>The source said: "An early draft of this next stage of analysis has looked at different off-the-shelf arrangements that currently exist as well as other external estimates.</p><p>"It does not, however, set out or measure the details of our desired outcome - a new deep and special partnership with the EU - or predict the conclusions of the negotiations.</p><p>"It also contains a significant number of caveats and is hugely dependant on a wide range of assumptions."</p><h2 class="story-body__crosshead">'Must publish'</h2><p>The chairman of the European Research Group of Conservative MPs, Jacob Rees Mogg, said that economic modelling so far had been "highly speculative" and often inaccurate.</p><p>Similar analysis carried out by the Treasury ahead of the Brexit referendum predicted large scale job losses if there was a vote to leave and had been "comprehensively wrong", he said.</p><p>But Labour MP Chris Leslie, a member of the Open Britain group which campaigns against a "hard" Brexit, said ministers had to publish their analysis in full.</p><figure class="media-landscape has-caption full-width"> <span class="image-and-copyright-container"> <div class="js-delayed-image-load" data-alt="Michel Barnier" data-src="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946oe_/https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/138F8/production/_99802108_barnier_getty.jpg" data-width="976" data-height="549"></div> <span class="off-screen">Image copyright</span> <span class="story-image-copyright">Getty Images</span> </span> <figcaption class="media-caption"> <span class="off-screen">Image caption</span> <span class="media-caption__text"> EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier set out the bloc's demands on Monday </span> </figcaption> </figure><p>On Monday <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42861496" class="story-body__link">the European Union set out its demands</a> for the temporary transition period after the UK leaves in March 2019.</p><p>It wants the UK to continue to follow its rules but not be involved in making decisions.</p><p>Giving evidence to a House of Lords committee, Brexit Secretary David Davis said the UK wanted a "right to object" to new laws passed by the EU during this time.</p><p>Meanwhile, the EU (Withdrawal) Bill is set to begin its passage through the House of Lords.</p><p>The legislation cleared the Commons last month with only one government defeat but it is predicted to face a far rougher ride in the upper chamber.</p> </div> </div> <div id="topic-tags"><div id="u5947020552121103"><div class="tags-container"><h2 class="tags-title story-body__crosshead">Related Topics</h2><ul class="tags-list"><li class="tags-list__tags" data-entityid="topic_link_bottom"><a href="/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.com/news/topics/clm1wxp5378t/uk-economy">UK economy</a></li><li class="tags-list__tags" data-entityid="topic_link_bottom"><a href="/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c23ny02v55yt/hm-treasury">HM Treasury</a></li><li class="tags-list__tags" data-entityid="topic_link_bottom"><a href="/web/20180130063946/http://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit">Brexit</a></li></ul></div></div></div> <div 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