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At the National Party conference there was the suggestion of trying to beef up Kiwibank, including by the injection of some additional capital from other than direct central government sources. And last Friday, there was…" /> </head> <body class="post-template-default single single-post postid-71820 single-format-standard customizer-styles-applied jetpack-reblog-enabled custom-colors"> <div id="page" class="hfeed site"> <a class="skip-link screen-reader-text" href="#content">Skip to content</a> <header id="masthead" class="site-header clearfix" role="banner"> <div class="site-branding"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/" class="site-logo-link" rel="home" itemprop="url"></a> <h1 class="site-title"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/" rel="home">croaking cassandra</a></h1> <h2 class="site-description">Economics, public policy, monetary policy, financial regulation, with a New Zealand perspective</h2> </div> <nav id="site-navigation" class="main-navigation nav-horizontal" role="navigation"> <button class="menu-toggle" aria-controls="primary-menu" aria-expanded="false">Menu</button> <div id="primary-menu" class="menu"><ul> <li ><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/">Home</a></li><li class="page_item page-item-1"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/about/">About Michael Reddell’s blog</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-66509"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/book-reviews/">Book reviews</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-58338"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/china-prc/">China (PRC)</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-71258"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/early-mpss-and-economic-projections/">MPSs & Economic Forecasts from early-mid 90s</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-8395"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/papers-and-speeches/">Papers and speeches</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-70350"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-superannuation-scheme/">Reserve Bank of New Zealand Superannuation Scheme</a></li> </ul></div> </nav> </header> <div id="content" class="site-content clearfix"> <div class="breadcrumbs"> <a class="breadcrumbs-root" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/">Home</a><span class="breadcrumbs-current">Still a bad idea</span> </div> <div class="primary content-area"> <main id="main" class="site-main" role="main"> <div class="article-wrapper"> <article id="post-71820" class="post-71820 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-prudential-regulation category-reserve-bank"> <header class="entry-header"> <h1 class="entry-title">Still a bad idea</h1> <div class="entry-meta"> <span class="posted-on"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-08-13T10:10:32+12:00">August 13, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-08-13T10:32:57+12:00">August 13, 2024</time></a></span> <span class="byline"><span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/author/mhreddell/">Michael Reddell</a></span></span> <span class="entry-categories"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/prudential-regulation/" rel="category tag">Prudential regulation</a>, <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/reserve-bank/" rel="category tag">Reserve Bank</a></span> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content"> <p>The Minister of Finance has, over the last couple of weeks, been trailing various possible changes in the financial system. At the National Party conference there was the suggestion of trying to beef up Kiwibank, including by the injection of some additional capital from other than direct central government sources. And last Friday, there was an <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nicola-willis-open-to-making-reserve-bank-ease-bank-capital-rules-also-gets-advice-on-de-facto-bank-tax/7YOZYIMGRZCCRCR7V72W2XFNNU/">interview with the <em>Herald’s </em>Jenee Tibshraeny</a> in which the Minister talked up the idea of overriding various bits of policy that are now squarely the legal responsibility of the Reserve Bank. Commentators suggest all this talk is to a considerable degree about preparing the ground for the release next week of the final report of the Commerce Commission’s report on elements of the banking sector, perhaps trying to ensure that there is little plausible ground for Labour or the Greens to attack the government on banking profits, access to services, or whatever. </p> <p>I’m not going to respond in depth to all the Minister’s suggestions. On Kiwibank, I largely agree with VUW banking academic (and former regulator) Martien Lubberink’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/owner-beware-4-reasons-why-selling-part-of-kiwibank-could-do-more-harm-than-good-235885">column</a>, and (rarely, and as it happens, even with <a href="https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/finance/john-key-pushes-back-on-nicola-willis-hope-for-a-disruptive-kiwibank-academic-labels-idea-irresponsible">John Key</a>). If it were me, I would sell 100 per cent of Kiwibank tomorrow, simply because there is no good reason for a government to own a commercial bank, but I am even more wary of partial privatisation of a bank than of the status quo).</p> <p>The Minister also suggested that she might change the law to force the Reserve Bank to (a) lower bank capital requirements, and b) provide carveouts for some or other favoured groups. Now, as it happens, I have long argued that prudential regulatory policy settings should be decided by the Minister of Finance, on the advice of the Reserve Bank and The Treasury. As Willis notes, she is accountable, and the Reserve Bank is not (although the Minister decided to reinforce that effective unaccountability recently by further extending the term of the chair of the Reserve Bank Board – and it is the board that now wields the prudential policysetting powers). But if you really want to make a change like that you do it after wide and serious consultation, or perhaps even as part of a well-trailed campaign promise, not simply (as it seems) to play distraction because another government agency might be about to release a briefly awkward report. I’m also inclined to think bank capital requirements are higher than is really warranted (that was my view when the policy was being set five years ago and remains so today) but if you want to be taken seriously as a Minister of Finance, you don’t just drop such a view into an interview – with, it appears, nothing in support – you outline carefully your case, or commission some reviewers to look into the matter carefully. Martien Lubberink also <a href="https://capitalissues.co/2024/08/09/new-zealand-minister-of-finance-wants-to-lower-capital-requirements-is-she-crossing-the-rubicon/">addressed</a> this set of Willis comments, including this apt line.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png"><img data-attachment-id="71826" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/image-224/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png" data-orig-size="680,500" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png?w=680" width="680" height="500" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png?w=680" alt="" class="wp-image-71826" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png 680w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.png?w=300 300w" sizes="(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px" /></a></figure> <p>But the item in the Minister’s grab-bag that I wanted to comment on was around the remuneration of settlement account balances held by banks at the Reserve Bank. On these balances – the aggregate level of which is determined wholly and solely by the Reserve Bank – banks are paid the OCR (currently 5.5%). The level of settlement cash balances is currently around $43 billion – off its highs, but still hugely higher than the $7bn or so that was more common pre-Covid. The reason for the difference? LSAP bond purchases by the Reserve Bank, and the subsidised direct lending (under the so-called “Funding for Lending” scheme) from the Reserve Bank to banks.</p> <p>In the <em>Herald </em>interview the Minister is reported as saying that “she had asked officials for advice on the way the RBNZ manages banks’ settlement accounts”, and in further comments in the same interview making clear that she was referring to how interest was paid. She goes as far as to suggest that it might be appropriate to amend the Reserve Bank Act to compel any change in approach that she considered warranted.</p> <p>The issue of remuneration of the high settlement cash balances has been around for a couple of years. I think I introduced it first to the New Zealand discussion with a <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2022/10/20/a-bad-idea/">post</a> in late 2022 on a paper by a former Bank of England Deputy Governor in which, among other issues, he suggested a possible case for paying below market rates on some portion of the large (at present) settlement cash balances in the UK. My post was headed “A bad idea”, which remains my view. That October 2022 post prompted Tibshraeny to give the issue a bit of coverage, which in turned seemed to prompt the then Minister of Finance Grant Robertson to ask for some official advice on the matter. Tibshraeny OIAed that advice, and I wrote about it in <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2023/03/28/interesting-that-the-minister-of-finance-asked-for-advice/">another post</a> in March 2023. Neither the Reserve Bank nor The Treasury were at all enthusiastic, and there even Grant Robertson – who, <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2023/07/14/project-cricket-and-other-nonsense/">we later learned</a>, had at the same time been toying with windfall profits taxes on banks – left it. It was, after all, on current legislation simply a matter for the Reserve Bank (the OCR, the rate paid on settlement cash balances, is the primary instrument of monetary policy, and the Reserve Bank has operational independence).</p> <p>There is a bit of a view around in some quarters that changing remuneration practices could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy (in fact, it was one of the lines the Reserve Bank used on Robertson). That isn’t necessarily so. Tiered approaches have been used elsewhere (including by the ECB when they had negative interest rates, as a subsidy to banks in that case), and so long as one clearly distinguishes between a first tranche that received a nil or below market rate from the marginal balances on which the full OCR would be paid, effective monetary control would not be impaired. But that doesn’t make the policy option the Minister was openly toying with a better idea. In fact, it is still a very bad idea. Bank settlement account balances don’t just arrive in a vacuum – rather they are a counterpart to a change in some or other items on bank balance sheets (eg a bank increases its settlement account balances when it wins deposits from another bank, or (in this case) when (say) a customer sells government bonds to the Reserve Bank and deposits the proceeds in a bank account, on which the customer will normally and reasonably expect a return). Running a tiered approach to remuneration of settlement cash balances, of the sort Paul Tucker first proposed a couple of years ago, is simply an arbitrary tax on banks, and financial intermediation more generally, without any analytical foundations or – if the RB simply did it – without any parliamentary scrutiny. Taxes should be imposed by those whom we elect, our MPs sitting in Parliament.</p> <p>But changing the law to enable the Minister to direct the bank on policy on remuneration of settlement accounts, or simply to mandate a completely different model, would be hardly any better than the RB just arbitrarily making such a change. There would be some formal democratic legitimacy, but for a policy that has just no substantive merit. As there was no good case for a windfall profits tax for banks, so there is no decent case – not even a shred of one – for a targeted ongoing tax specifically on banks. It would be arbitrary, inefficient, largely borne by New Zealand depositors and borrowers, and would send a simply dreadful signal, at a time when international markets are already looking askance at the Reserve Bank and the conduct of policy – and the policy “debate” more generally. </p> <p>I don’t suppose it is very likely that Willis and the government will end up doing any of the things she trailed in last week’ <em>Herald </em>interview. Doing them probably wasn’t the point – rather the pursuit of a good headline with a certain sector of the New Zealand audience, narrowing room for Labour and the Greens, seems to have been the point. Empty populist rhetoric seems a description closer to the mark than serious considered policy options and analysis (note that not a hint of any of this appeared in the election campaign, less than a year ago). Perhaps the rhetoric plays well with some focus groups, but it hardly enhances any reputation Willis aspires to to be (and be seen as) a more serious Minister of Finance (focused on things that might make a real difference) than her predecessor.</p> <p>I’ve already noted that Willis could readily have changed the chair of the Reserve Bank board when his term expired (her government has been happy to replace various other chairs in agencies where dismissal at will as an option). She could have filled the vacancies on the board with people better qualified than those Robertson appointed but hasn’t done anything about that either. It remains almost beyond comprehension that she didn’t move on either front, and suggests she isn’t really serious about any of this. In the same vein, each year the Minister of Finance writes a Letter of Expectation to the Board, an opportunity to highlight her priorities or things she wants the board and Bank to have regard to etc. The <a href="https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/letters-of-expectation/letter-of-expectations-2024.pdf">2024 letter</a> is sitting on the Bank’s website, and has not a hint of any of the sorts of issues/concerns Willis was raising in the <em>Herald </em>interview. She also hasn’t revised the <a href="https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/about-us/responsibility-and-accountability/our-financial-policy-remit">Financial Policy Remit</a> (a new tool) issued by Robertson a couple of years ago. There are things around the Reserve Bank that the Minister can’t easily or quickly fix (eg she is stuck with the Governor, unless he chooses to go early, for another 3.5 years), but she has shown no sign of doing any of the things she could (eg Board chair and vacancies, unwinding new indemnities the Bank has been given) or of using any moral suasion (eg through the letter of expectation) around financial policy issues or the Bank’s budgetary excesses.</p> <p>So it all just looks a lot like a search for a good headline, and political operatives managing tactical risks for a couple of weeks, rather than a Minister with any sort of serious interest in, or intent towards, a much better central bank, whether in its monetary policy or financial regulatory roles. Perhaps in that sense she and the Governor – who seemed to have such a testy relationship when National was in Opposition – deserve each other. It is just that New Zealanders deserve much better from both roles.</p> <p>(I have submitted an OIA this morning for the advice etc around remuneration on settlement cash balances. It will be interesting to see if either Treasury or the Bank are giving Willis even slightly different advice now than they gave Grant Robertson last year (but it seems unlikely).</p> <div id="jp-post-flair" class="sharedaddy sd-like-enabled sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-icon-text sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-twitter"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-twitter-71820" class="share-twitter sd-button share-icon" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?share=twitter" target="_blank" title="Click to share on Twitter" ><span>Twitter</span></a></li><li class="share-facebook"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-facebook-71820" class="share-facebook sd-button share-icon" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?share=facebook" target="_blank" title="Click to share on Facebook" ><span>Facebook</span></a></li><li class="share-end"></li></ul></div></div></div><div class='sharedaddy sd-block sd-like jetpack-likes-widget-wrapper jetpack-likes-widget-unloaded' id='like-post-wrapper-85004741-71820-6745079244c87' data-src='//widgets.wp.com/likes/index.html?ver=20241125#blog_id=85004741&post_id=71820&origin=croakingcassandra.wordpress.com&obj_id=85004741-71820-6745079244c87&domain=croakingcassandra.com' data-name='like-post-frame-85004741-71820-6745079244c87' data-title='Like or Reblog'><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class='loading'>Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div></div> </div> <footer class="entry-meta"> </footer> </article> </div> <nav role="navigation" id="nav-below" class="post-navigation"> <h1 class="screen-reader-text">Post navigation</h1> <div class="nav-previous"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/27/treasury-says-one-thing-in-a-speech-but-quite-another-in-the-befu/" rel="prev"><span class="meta-nav">←</span> Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU</a></div> <div class="nav-next"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/15/heading-for-2-5-or-less-by-this-time-next-year/" rel="next">Heading for 2.5% (or less) by this time next year? <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></div> </nav> <div id="comments" class="comments-area clearfix"> <div class="comments-wrapper"> <h2 class="comments-title"> 7 thoughts on “<span>Still a bad idea</span>” </h2> <ol class="comment-list"> <li id="comment-82454" class="comment byuser comment-author-fosterbill3043f77920 even thread-even depth-1 parent"> <article id="div-comment-82454" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/3035176257d39bd0ce2346d56effe8454ad169f0ad15dfda82863df2f4223771?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/3035176257d39bd0ce2346d56effe8454ad169f0ad15dfda82863df2f4223771?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/3035176257d39bd0ce2346d56effe8454ad169f0ad15dfda82863df2f4223771?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/3035176257d39bd0ce2346d56effe8454ad169f0ad15dfda82863df2f4223771?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/3035176257d39bd0ce2346d56effe8454ad169f0ad15dfda82863df2f4223771?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://0.gravatar.com/avatar/3035176257d39bd0ce2346d56effe8454ad169f0ad15dfda82863df2f4223771?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">fosterbill3043f77920</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/#comment-82454"><time datetime="2024-08-13T14:42:21+12:00">August 13, 2024 at 2:42 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>Several points to agree on in this post Michael: – Sell Kiwibank – Capital Adequacy requirements unnecessarily high – Minister responsible for prudential risks (who bails out failed banks? RBNZ should not be responsible for insurance decisions. Aside I’ve consistently been against deposit insurance, mainly for moral hazard and cost reasons.) But on IOR, I think your earlier valid concern was that to reduce IOR on non-settlement reserves quickly could be disruptive. In principle I see no reason to remunerate banks on reserves they choose to hold as settlement balances as a consequence of the failed LSAP programme. They benefitted by selling bonds at higher prices and now are getting rates on reserves that are marginally better than bills and much higher than 10 year bond yields. A double benefit for nothing – courtesy AO. If they don’t get OCR rates on ~$30B of cash they will have to invest it – that will help bring down rates generally.</p> <p>></p> <p id="comment-like-82454" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?like_comment=82454&_wpnonce=36113fcead" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82454" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?replytocom=82454#respond" data-commentid="82454" data-postid="71820" data-belowelement="div-comment-82454" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to fosterbill3043f77920" aria-label="Reply to fosterbill3043f77920">Reply</a></div> </article> <ul class="children"> <li id="comment-82457" class="comment odd alt depth-2"> <article id="div-comment-82457" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">getgreatstuff</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/#comment-82457"><time datetime="2024-08-14T09:39:09+12:00">August 14, 2024 at 9:39 am</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>Lets get some facts correct in the first place. Those Settlement Cash Accounts are actually liability accounts on the RBNZ books. In order to undertake the LSAP program, the banks were forced to sell bonds to the RBNZ utilising the Cash Settlement Accounts as a loan. These are not cash reserves. They are in effect a loan owed to banks. Interest is payable on loans. If the RBNZ borrows then it is expected that it pays interest on that loan.</p> <p id="comment-like-82457" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?like_comment=82457&_wpnonce=2a16d2c147" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82457" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?replytocom=82457#respond" data-commentid="82457" data-postid="71820" data-belowelement="div-comment-82457" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to getgreatstuff" aria-label="Reply to getgreatstuff">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> <li id="comment-82458" class="comment even depth-2"> <article id="div-comment-82458" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">getgreatstuff</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/#comment-82458"><time datetime="2024-08-14T09:58:03+12:00">August 14, 2024 at 9:58 am</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>The shareholders of Kiwibank originally was mainly the Kiwisaver funds and the National Super fund. The sale of Kiwibank by Kiwisaver and by the National Super to the government is a behind the scenes bail out. The main holders of NZ bonds in the LSAP program are the Kiwisaver and the National Super funds due to the nature of investments funds that require a significant investment in safe haven fixed interest bonds. This means the most exposed to the LSAP program would have been Kiwisaver funds and the National Super. The LSAP program forces these funds to exchange high yielding bonds for low yielding bonds. When interest rates rise the market valuation of these low yielding bonds depreciate. To avoid a collapse of these funds as interest rates rose, the government borrowed to buyout Kiwibank to reinstate the values in the Kiwisaver funds and the National Super fund.</p> <p id="comment-like-82458" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?like_comment=82458&_wpnonce=d9d8883b2a" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82458" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?replytocom=82458#respond" data-commentid="82458" data-postid="71820" data-belowelement="div-comment-82458" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to getgreatstuff" aria-label="Reply to getgreatstuff">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="comment-82455" class="comment byuser comment-author-mhreddell bypostauthor odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1"> <article id="div-comment-82455" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/4e9bc938efe9ab4b4854db88ffa70e46b4a0d44ec66977f1873cde45fca5dabe?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/4e9bc938efe9ab4b4854db88ffa70e46b4a0d44ec66977f1873cde45fca5dabe?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/4e9bc938efe9ab4b4854db88ffa70e46b4a0d44ec66977f1873cde45fca5dabe?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/4e9bc938efe9ab4b4854db88ffa70e46b4a0d44ec66977f1873cde45fca5dabe?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/4e9bc938efe9ab4b4854db88ffa70e46b4a0d44ec66977f1873cde45fca5dabe?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/4e9bc938efe9ab4b4854db88ffa70e46b4a0d44ec66977f1873cde45fca5dabe?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn"><a href="http://croakingcassandra.com" class="url" rel="ugc">Michael Reddell</a></b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/#comment-82455"><time datetime="2024-08-13T14:49:20+12:00">August 13, 2024 at 2:49 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>From commenter Bill Foster</p> <p>Several points to agree on in this post Michael:</p> <p>– Sell Kiwibank</p> <p>– Capital Adequacy requirements unnecessarily high</p> <p>– Minister responsible for prudential risks (who bails out failed banks? RBNZ should not be responsible for insurance decisions. [Aside I’ve consistently been against deposit insurance, mainly for moral hazard and cost reasons].)</p> <p>– Minister should either act or keep quiet (reputational risks).</p> <p>But on IOR, I think your earlier valid concern was that to reduce IOR on non-settlement reserves quickly could be disruptive. In principle I see no reason to remunerate banks on reserves they choose to hold as settlement balances as a consequence of the failed LSAP programme. They benefitted by selling bonds at higher prices and now are getting rates on reserves that are marginally better than bills and much higher than 10 year bond yields. A double benefit for nothing – courtesy AO. If they don’t get OCR rates on ~$30B of cash they will have to invest it – that will help bring down rates generally.</p> <p id="comment-like-82455" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?like_comment=82455&_wpnonce=509ebeffc3" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82455" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?replytocom=82455#respond" data-commentid="82455" data-postid="71820" data-belowelement="div-comment-82455" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to Michael Reddell" aria-label="Reply to Michael Reddell">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> <li id="comment-82456" class="comment byuser comment-author-janb55d5565a0d6 even thread-even depth-1"> <article id="div-comment-82456" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/e8b7cd6ac05374400bec6e9eb5e7ed408de35d71225b5ce4c5abf27efdb756da?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/e8b7cd6ac05374400bec6e9eb5e7ed408de35d71225b5ce4c5abf27efdb756da?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/e8b7cd6ac05374400bec6e9eb5e7ed408de35d71225b5ce4c5abf27efdb756da?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/e8b7cd6ac05374400bec6e9eb5e7ed408de35d71225b5ce4c5abf27efdb756da?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/e8b7cd6ac05374400bec6e9eb5e7ed408de35d71225b5ce4c5abf27efdb756da?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/e8b7cd6ac05374400bec6e9eb5e7ed408de35d71225b5ce4c5abf27efdb756da?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">janb55d5565a0d6</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/#comment-82456"><time datetime="2024-08-13T18:06:16+12:00">August 13, 2024 at 6:06 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>Either National is incompetent, or complicit in all of this. Either way, if we can’t fix the economy, which the Reserve bank is central to achieving, then pretty much evrything else will go backwards. Sad to see Willis enraged while in opposition at Labour’s moves, and is now unwilling to change anything.</p> <p id="comment-like-82456" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?like_comment=82456&_wpnonce=32ce021100" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82456" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?replytocom=82456#respond" data-commentid="82456" data-postid="71820" data-belowelement="div-comment-82456" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to janb55d5565a0d6" aria-label="Reply to janb55d5565a0d6">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> <li id="comment-82469" class="comment odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1"> <article id="div-comment-82469" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/55bee1fdcc3b4efebffdb8b230cf18276f83a52225e3e692e5addf18d487042f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/55bee1fdcc3b4efebffdb8b230cf18276f83a52225e3e692e5addf18d487042f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/55bee1fdcc3b4efebffdb8b230cf18276f83a52225e3e692e5addf18d487042f?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/55bee1fdcc3b4efebffdb8b230cf18276f83a52225e3e692e5addf18d487042f?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/55bee1fdcc3b4efebffdb8b230cf18276f83a52225e3e692e5addf18d487042f?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/55bee1fdcc3b4efebffdb8b230cf18276f83a52225e3e692e5addf18d487042f?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">BDBinc</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/#comment-82469"><time datetime="2024-08-15T17:28:03+12:00">August 15, 2024 at 5:28 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>Why dont we have a real Kiwibank that is owned by the people of NZ, that the State and all State registered kiwis businesses use for all its transactions( get the corporation ” ACC” away from it as ACC ruin everything they touch as they have with kiwibank ) a National bank that undercuts the Oz banks on interest rates and banking fees.</p> <p>I always recognize the politicians of the day as just The central bankers nation state media spokesmen, they always follow central bankster’s orders( the agenda). Doesnt matter if its Tony Blairs war crims Jacinda or its Luxon, its the same train wreck.</p> <p>The MSD and MOH firing people now clearly shows that the ones actively shitting on the people’s economy are incompetent, complicit and insane. </p> </p> <p id="comment-like-82469" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?like_comment=82469&_wpnonce=21af73e075" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82469" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?replytocom=82469#respond" data-commentid="82469" data-postid="71820" data-belowelement="div-comment-82469" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to BDBinc" aria-label="Reply to BDBinc">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> 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nofollow">Remunerating exchange settlement accounts: what is MoF up to? – Times Of NZ</a></b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/#comment-82692"><time datetime="2024-11-13T17:37:27+13:00">November 13, 2024 at 5:37 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>[…] few weeks ago I wrote a post about an article the Herald’s Jenee Tibshraeny had written based on an interview […]</p> <p id="comment-like-82692" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/?like_comment=82692&_wpnonce=602520f3ae" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82692" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" 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2024">20</a></td><td>21</td><td>22</td><td>23</td><td>24</td> </tr> <tr> <td>25</td><td>26</td><td>27</td><td><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/28/" aria-label="Posts published on August 28, 2024">28</a></td><td>29</td><td>30</td><td>31</td> </tr> </tbody> </table><nav aria-label="Previous and next months" class="wp-calendar-nav"> <span class="wp-calendar-nav-prev"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/">« Jul</a></span> <span class="pad"> </span> <span class="wp-calendar-nav-next"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/09/">Sep »</a></span> </nav></div></aside> <aside id="recent-posts-9" class="widget widget_recent_entries"> <h1 class="widget-title">Recent Posts</h1> <ul> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/11/19/what-does-reciprocity-mean-in-new-zealand-laws/">What does “reciprocity” mean in New Zealand laws?</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/25/pretty-illegal/">Pretty (il)legal</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/24/fiction-and-spin/">Fiction and spin</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/10/central-bank-policy-communications/">Central bank policy communications</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/08/divisiveness-and-democracy/">Divisiveness and democracy</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/07/public-policy-just-keeps-on-worsening/">Public policy just keeps on worsening</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/">Inquiring into banking</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/09/17/human-nature-doesnt-change/">Human nature doesn’t change</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/09/09/remunerating-exchange-settlement-accounts-what-is-mof-up-to/">Remunerating exchange settlement accounts: what is MoF up to?</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/09/04/should-nz-establish-a-fiscal-council/">Should NZ establish a Fiscal Council?</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/09/02/an-excellent-working-relationship-with-the-governor/">An excellent working relationship with the Governor</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/28/wholly-inappropriate/">Wholly inappropriate</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/20/bits-and-pieces-3/">Bits and pieces</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/19/fiscal-and-monetary-policy/">Fiscal and monetary policy</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/17/35m-per-annum-and-this-is-the-sort-of-engagement-we-get/">$35m per annum and this is the sort of “engagement” we get?</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/15/heading-for-2-5-or-less-by-this-time-next-year/">Heading for 2.5% (or less) by this time next year?</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/08/13/still-a-bad-idea/" aria-current="page">Still a bad idea</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/27/treasury-says-one-thing-in-a-speech-but-quite-another-in-the-befu/">Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/26/not-a-good-case-for-a-cbdc/">Not a good case for a CBDC</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/23/treasury-wanting-to-use-fiscal-policy-more/">Treasury wanting to use fiscal policy more</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/13/public-sector-bloat-reserve-bank-edition/">Public sector bloat: Reserve Bank edition</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/11/flip-flop-flip-flop/">Flip flop flip flop</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/09/still-avoiding-responsibility/">Still avoiding responsibility</a> </li> <li> <a 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