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Seg煤n los fundamentales macroecon贸micos, esperamos dos din谩micas diferenciadas: en los primeros trimestres de 2025 una depreciaci贸n inicial hacia 0,85. Posteriormente, hacia final de a帽o, y a medida que los niveles de inflaci贸n y tipos de inter茅s de ambas econom铆as converjan, deber铆amos ver una apreciaci贸n gradual hacia el l铆mite inferior del rango." /><meta property="og:image" content="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/sites/default/files/styles/share/public/content/image/2023/03/30/49/ICO_FD_EURGBP.jpg?itok=tzk691lF" /><meta property="og:image:url" content="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/sites/default/files/styles/share/public/content/image/2023/03/30/49/ICO_FD_EURGBP.jpg?itok=tzk691lF" /><meta property="og:image:secure_url" content="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/sites/default/files/styles/share/public/content/image/2023/03/30/49/ICO_FD_EURGBP.jpg?itok=tzk691lF" /><meta property="article:published_time" content="2025-02-13T12:00:00+01:00" /><meta property="article:modified_time" content="2025-02-13T10:12:10+01:00" /><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /><meta name="twitter:description" content="Esperamos que la libra esterlina se mueva, en su cruce frente al euro, en un rango de 0,80-0,85 libras por euro en los pr贸ximos trimestres. Seg煤n los fundamentales macroecon贸micos, esperamos dos din谩micas diferenciadas: en los primeros trimestres de 2025 una depreciaci贸n inicial hacia 0,85. Posteriormente, hacia final de a帽o, y a medida que los niveles de inflaci贸n y tipos de inter茅s de ambas econom铆as converjan, deber铆amos ver una apreciaci贸n gradual hacia el l铆mite inferior del rango." /><meta name="twitter:title" content="EUR/GBP" /><meta name="twitter:image" content="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/sites/default/files/styles/share/public/content/image/2023/03/30/49/ICO_FD_EURGBP.jpg?itok=tzk691lF" /><meta name="Generator" content="Drupal 9 (https://www.drupal.org)" /><meta name="MobileOptimized" content="width" /><meta name="HandheldFriendly" content="true" /><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" /><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context": "https://schema.org","@graph": [{"@type": "NewsArticle","headline": "EUR/GBP","name": "EUR/GBP","description": "Esperamos que la libra esterlina se mueva, en su cruce frente al euro, en un rango de 0,80-0,85 libras por euro en los pr贸ximos trimestres. 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Photo by Jakub Zerdzicki on Unsplash" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div><h2><a href="/es/analisis-sectorial/inmobiliario/nuevas-previsiones-sector-inmobiliario-espanol-ciclo-alcista-se"><span property="schema:name">Nuevas previsiones para el sector inmobiliario espa帽ol: el ciclo alcista se afianza en 2025</span></a></h2><div class="category primary_color"><div class="field_seccion field"> Econom铆a espa帽ola</div></div><div class="box_author_date box_ad box_with_image"><div class="field_author multiple"><div class="autor"><div about="/es/autor/judit-montoriol-garriga" class="author-complete-teaser"> <a href="/es/autor/judit-montoriol-garriga"><div class="field_fotografia field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/index_autor/public/content/image/2025/02/10/49/judit_montoriol.jpg?itok=RhQaXlrz" width="136" height="136" alt="Judit Montoriol Garriga" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div><div class="author-info"><div class="nom"><div class="name field"> Judit Montoriol Garriga</div></div></div> </a></div></div></div><div class="created">3 de febrero de 2025</div></div></article></div></div></div></div></li><li class="menu-item menu-item--expanded"> <a href="/es/areas-geograficas" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/211">脕reas geogr谩ficas</a><div class="menu-desplegable menu_visual_1"><div class="container menu_visual_1"><div class="col-left"><div class="content-visual-menu"><div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-0 menu-type-default"><ul class="menu menu-level-1"><li class="menu-item"> <a href="/es/areas-geograficas/espana" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/212">Espa帽a</a><div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-1 menu-type-default"></div></li><li class="menu-item"> <a href="/es/areas-geograficas/portugal" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/213">Portugal</a><div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-1 menu-type-default"></div></li><li class="menu-item"> <a href="/es/areas-geograficas/internacional" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/792">Internacional</a><div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-1 menu-type-default"></div></li><li class="menu-item"> <a href="/es/areas-geograficas" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/211">Ver todo sobre 脕reas geogr谩ficas</a><div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-1 menu-type-default"></div></li></ul></div></div></div><div class="js-view-dom-id-806af9ae79f55254fd6f4326cac633a6fb17533a872cc8adf0f707cebb28b9bf col-right"><div class="content-article-menu"> <article data-history-node-id="13204" role="article" about="/es/economia-y-mercados/mercado-laboral-y-demografia/estabilidad-del-empleo-mejora-espana" typeof="schema:Article" data-type="article"><div class="field_thumbnail field"><div class="field_media_image field"> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/menu_destacado/public/content/image/2025/02/06/34529/mercado-laboral-trabajador-mostafa-mahmoudi-ojbjhppwpxe-unsplash.jpg?itok=IqV21FCy" width="400" height="200" alt="Trabajador midiendo una plancha de acero. Photo by Mostafa Mahmoudi on Unsplash" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /></div></div><h2><a href="/es/economia-y-mercados/mercado-laboral-y-demografia/estabilidad-del-empleo-mejora-espana"><span property="schema:name">La estabilidad del empleo mejora en Espa帽a</span></a></h2><div class="category primary_color"><div class="field_seccion field"> Econom铆a espa帽ola</div></div><div class="box_author_date box_ad box_no_image"><div class="field_author multiple"><div class="autor"><div about="/es/autor/nuria-bustamante" class="author-name-teaser"><div class="nom"><a href="/es/autor/nuria-bustamante"><div class="name field"> Nuria Bustamante</div> </a></div></div></div><div class="autor"><div about="/es/autor/sergio-diaz" class="author-name-teaser"><div class="nom"><a href="/es/autor/sergio-diaz"><div class="name field"> Sergio D铆az</div> </a></div></div></div></div><div class="created">10 de febrero de 2025</div></div></article></div></div></div></div></li><li class="menu-item 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class="plantilla_articulo_vs02"><div class="content-header"><div class="info"><div class="category "> <a href="/es/tags/divisas" hreflang="es">Divisas</a></div><h1><span>EUR/GBP</span></h1><div class="body field"><p><span><span>Esperamos que la libra esterlina se mueva, en su cruce frente al euro, en un rango de 0,80-0,85 libras por euro en los pr贸ximos trimestres. Seg煤n los fundamentales macroecon贸micos, esperamos dos din谩micas diferenciadas: en los primeros trimestres de 2025 una depreciaci贸n inicial hacia 0,85. Posteriormente, hacia final de a帽o, y a medida que los niveles de inflaci贸n y tipos de inter茅s de ambas econom铆as converjan, deber铆amos ver una apreciaci贸n gradual hacia el l铆mite inferior del rango. Tanto las din谩micas inflacionistas como la incertidumbre fiscal brit谩nica complican que el Banco de Inglaterra pueda acometer bajadas de tipos al ritmo que esperamos que s铆 lo haga el BCE a principios de a帽o, aunque los riesgos de esta previsi贸n son elevados, toda vez que el Banco de Inglaterra tiene una mayor flexibilidad estatutaria que el BCE para sostener el crecimiento econ贸mico, y quiz谩s tambi茅n una mayor inclinaci贸n de sus responsables a hacerlo (hasta 2 de los 9 miembros del Comit茅 de Pol铆tica Monetaria votaron recortar hasta 50 p. b. la semana pasada).</span></span></p></div><div class="autor-fecha slash no_photo"><div class="fecha"><div class="created-time">13 de febrero de 2025</div></div></div><div class="download"><div class="print"><a href="/es/node/12161/printable/print" target="_blank">Imprimir</a></div><div class="field_media_file field"> <a download alt=" download" href="/sites/default/files/content/file/2025/02/13/34454/2025_02_eurgbp-flash-divisas.pdf"> Descargar 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stroke-miterlimit="10" d="M1.629 1.538l10.999 11m-10.999 0l10.999-11"/></svg> </a></div><div class="col-right"><div class="field_paragraphs"><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_descripcion field"><ul><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>Esperamos que la libra esterlina se mueva, en su cruce frente al euro, en un rango de 0,80-0,85 libras por euro en los pr贸ximos trimestres. Seg煤n los fundamentales macro, esperamos dos din谩micas diferenciadas: en los primeros trimestres de 2025 una depreciaci贸n inicial hacia 0,85. Posteriormente, hacia final de a帽o, y a medida que los niveles de inflaci贸n y tipos de inter茅s de ambas econom铆as converjan, deber铆amos ver una apreciaci贸n gradual hacia el l铆mite inferior del rango.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>En la primera parte del a帽o, la inflaci贸n brit谩nica afronta m谩s riesgos al alza que la del 谩rea euro, lo que deber铆a ser ligeramente depreciador para la esterlina.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>Aunque ambas econom铆as adolecen de una debilidad c铆clica similar, a medida que avance el a帽o diversos factores deber铆an favorecer una apreciaci贸n de la libra: </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><ul><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>El consumo privado brit谩nico deber铆a verse soportado por unos salarios reales que crecen a mayor ritmo que en la eurozona. El crecimiento de la productividad, no obstante, no est谩 acompa帽ando al de los salarios, lo podr铆a hacer aumentar la inflaci贸n en el medio plazo y, a m谩s largo plazo, lastrar los t茅rminos de comercio.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>Reino Unido parece menos expuesto a medidas proteccionistas desde EE.UU. y su Gobierno m谩s inclinado a buscar cualquier acuerdo con la administraci贸n Trump.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>El nuevo Gobierno brit谩nico tiene algo m谩s de margen de maniobra pol铆tica para impulsar la econom铆a que en el 谩rea euro, incluso con el menor espacio fiscal con el que cuenta tras los shocks de Brexit, la pandemia de Covid y la elevada inflaci贸n.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>Tanto las din谩micas inflacionistas ya mencionadas, como este factor fiscal, complican que el Banco de Inglaterra pueda acometer bajadas de tipos al ritmo que esperamos que s铆 lo haga el BCE. Por ello, el estrechamiento del diferencial de tipos solo deber铆a acentuarse hacia final de a帽o.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li><li><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>Los riesgos de esta previsi贸n son elevados, toda vez que el Banco de Inglaterra tiene una mayor flexibilidad estatutaria que el BCE para sostener el crecimiento econ贸mico, y quiz谩s tambi茅n una mayor inclinaci贸n de sus responsables: 2 de los 9 miembros del Comit茅 de Pol铆tica Monetaria votaron por recortar 50 p.b. la semana pasada.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></li></ul></div></div><div class="paragraph ptype_title-html-text pmode_default"><div class="field_descripcion field"><div class="tex2jax_process"><p><a href="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/sites/default/files/content/file/2025/02/13/34454/2025_02_eurgbp-flash-divisas.pdf" target="_BLANK">Descargar el PDF completo</a></p></div></div></div></div><div class="field_tags"><div class="label">Etiquetas:</div><div class="tag_list"> <a href="/es/tags/divisas" hreflang="es">Divisas</a> <a href="/es/tags/reino-unido" hreflang="es">Reino Unido</a></div></div><ul class="custom footnotes"></ul></div></div></article></div></div></div></main><footer role="contentinfo"><div class="container"><div class="logo_caixa_footer"> <a href="https://www.caixabankresearch.com/es" title="CaixaBank Research footer logo"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" version="1.1" x="0px" y="0px" viewBox="0 0 469.7 126" style="enable-background:new 0 0 469.7 126;" xml:space="preserve"> <g> <path class="st0" d="M35.3,52.9c1,0.7,0.9,2,1.8,2.7l0.4,3l-2.2,3.2c-2.8,1.5-6.9,2.1-9.5-0.2c-1.5-1.3-1.9-3.2-1.5-5.1l1-2.8 c0.6-0.4,1.4-0.5,1.8-1.2c1.4-0.9,3.1-0.7,4.7-1C33,51.9,34.8,51.2,35.3,52.9"></path> <path class="st0" 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