Mysteel周报：机械原材料价格监测（10.28-11.3）-我的钢铁网

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<p><strong>核心观点：</strong>25日国内钢材指数（Myspic）综合指数报收131.1点，周环比下跌1.32%。供应方面，本周五大钢材品种供应880.58万吨，周环比升7.16万吨，增幅为0.8%，较上周增幅1.1%有所收窄。随着近期钢厂利润收缩比较快，因此钢厂复产进度有所放缓，导致产量增速放缓；本周五大钢材总库存1259.32万吨，周环比降13.22万吨，降幅为1.0%。本周五大品种总库存继续保持降库，但库存降幅环比收缩，主要因为近期钢价持续阴跌，导致市场接货积极性不高。消费方面，本周五大品种周度表观消费量为893.80万吨，环比降1.9%：其中建材消费降5.6%，板材消费增0.5%。本周五大钢材品种中建材与板材消费有所背离，主要因为本周建材刚需与投机需求均有所下滑所致，而板材需求主要由于国内制造业接单仍较好，需求韧性十足。总体来看，本周五大钢材品种钢材供增需降，总库存去库进一步放缓，基本面矛盾边际增加。<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>市方面：宏观方面，中国三季度GDP 4.6%，9月社会消费品零售同比加速增长3.2%，规上工业增加值增长5.4%，增速放缓四个月后回升，固定资产投资增速回稳、持平8月，前三季度多项房地产指标降幅收窄。10月21日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年10月21日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为:1年期LPR为3.10%，5年期以上LPR为3.60%。1年期、5年期LPR利率均下调25BP。基本面方面，本周下游企业订单表现一般，市场逢低补库、逢低点价的动作依然持续不过从新订单的情况来看，近期新订单有小幅下降迹象，多数企业维持刚需采购；而提货效率来看，下游企业的提货速度未有改善，环比较上周基本持K平。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>市方面：上周沪铝冲高回落，宏观情绪降温，商品股市区间调整。上周前4个交易日一路爬坡过坎，两次冲破 21000关口，但周五大幅下跌，抹去所有涨幅，回归原点，退守 20600 元/吨一线，整体维持 20500-21200 元/吨震荡。周三及周五沪铝大幅下跌，使得废铝持货商捂货惜售，市场成交偏弱，合金锭企业按需采购。虽原铝波动较大，但对 ADC12价格影响较小，基本上与原<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>格同步。合金锭企业成品库存虽有增加，但增幅较小，供应端压力可以忽略不计，企业挺价底气依旧较足，短期 ADC12 价格下跌空间有限，对价格形成支撑。截止到本周五，主流地区价格维持在 20500 元/吨，下游刚需采购，成交多以下浮为主。</p> <p><strong>一、原材料品种价格监测</strong></p> <p>截止2024年10月25日，各原材料当日即时价格以及价格周环比情况如下：</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 272.601px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/28/98fcf1ed3d024c9eae6c20333c98d99e.png" width="600" height="272" /></p> <p><strong>二、机械行业原材料基本面分析——钢材篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要①——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>中厚板</a>：上周中板价格震荡下跌,预计本周价格将震荡运行</strong></p> <p>上周全国中厚板市场价格震荡下跌。全国中板库存总量为232.22吨，较上周减少3.58万吨，分区域来看，华东减量最多。从供应端来看，前期检修钢厂陆续复产，市场资源到货稍有缓解，但目前市场仍有规格紧缺现象。从库存来看，本周库存延续去库，但去库斜率减缓，叠加供给增加出货偏缓，预计下周或有累库风险。从需求端来看，盘面震荡调整市场情绪不温不火，贸易商补库积极性较差，下游观望情绪浓厚采购意愿不高，需求跟进不足成交略显乏力。综合来看，短期供给增加，需求弱稳，市场宏观政策预期支撑尚在，预计本周中厚板价格震荡运行。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要②——</strong><strong>热卷：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷价格小幅回暖需求回升</strong></p> <p>本周国内热轧板卷价格大幅下行，全国24个主要市场3.0mm热轧板卷价格均价为3599元/吨，较上周下跌3元/吨；4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3534元/吨，较上周下跌3元/吨。从各区域的库存数据看，降幅最大的区域是华南地区，较上周降6.5万吨，降幅最小的区域是东北地区，较上周增0.09万吨。本周市场盘面处于震荡运行阶段，现货市场价格跟随波动，成交一定程度转好，库存持续降库，主要集中在华南，华东、华中等区域，其余地区降幅较小。库存持续下降的情况下，下游备货积极性有所提升，市场价格近期价格有回升语气，预计短期内预期以及需求回暖刺激下，价格有进一步上扬可能。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要③</strong><strong>——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>：上周全国型钢价格趋弱，预计本周型钢价格震荡偏弱运行</strong></p> <p>上周市场现货价格整体下跌，200*200<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010705-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>H型钢</a>全国均价3399元/吨，周环比下跌44元/吨；588*300H型钢3496元/吨，周环比下跌45/吨；5＃角钢3667元/吨，周环比下跌18元/吨；16＃槽钢为3631元/吨，周环比下跌16元/吨；25＃工字钢为3722元/吨，周环比下跌25元/吨。</p> <p>供应方面，上周全国工角槽产量39.4万吨，周环比增加2.16万吨，在H型钢中，钢厂周实际产量29.05万吨，周环比降低0.68%。</p> <p>库存方面，上周全国工角槽库存50.36万吨，周环比增加0.15万吨；全国H型钢库存65.25万吨，周环比增加2.62万吨。</p> <p>需求方面，尽管处于传统的需求旺季，但实际需求的增长未能达到市场预期，需求的疲软无法支撑价格的上涨，加剧了市场的下跌压力。</p> <p>综合来看，在没有重大利好消息刺激的情况下，市场下周可能继续保持低位震荡的格局。市场对需求的无好转的担忧以及环保解除后供应的增加将持续压制价格的上涨。政策方面，需要继续关注国家对房地产市场以及相关产业的政策动态，任何政策的调整都可能对市场产生重大影响。</p> <p><strong>三、机械行业原材料基本面分析——有色篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要④——铜：</strong></p> <p>宏观方面，中国三季度GDP 4.6%，9月社会消费品零售同比加速增长3.2%，规上工业增加值增长5.4%，增速放缓四个月后回升，固定资产投资增速回稳、持平8月，前三季度多项房地产指标降幅收窄。10月21日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年10月21日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为:1年期LPR为3.10%，5年期以上LPR为3.60%。1年期、5年期LPR利率均下调25BP。基本面方面，本周下游企业订单表现一般，市场逢低补库、逢低点价的动作依然持续不过从新订单的情况来看，近期新订单有小幅下降迹象，多数企业维持刚需采购；而提货效率来看，下游企业的提货速度未有改善，环比较上周基本持K平。</p> <p><strong>四、机械行业动态信息一览</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、国家统计局：1-9</strong><strong>月机械工业主要行业企业利润出炉</strong></p> <p>国家统计局最新数据显示，2024年1-9月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额52281.6亿元，同比下降3.5%。</p> <p>其中，机械工业主要涉及行业大类中，通用设备制造业增长0.2%；专用设备制造业下降5.5%，汽车制造业下降1.2%，电气机械和器材制造业下降7.2%，仪器仪表制造业下降0.9%。</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、中内协：前9</strong><strong>个月内燃机行业进出口总额246.78</strong><strong>亿美元，同比增5%</strong></p> <p>从前三季度的整体来看，根据各经济体发布的最新数据初步测算，我国整体出口占全球市场份额稳中有升，主要出口产品占全球市场的份额都有不同程度的提升，我国出口依然具有强劲韧性。</p> <p>据海关总署统计数据显示，2024年前三季度我国进出口总值45458.2亿美元，同比增长3.4%。其中，出口26176.6亿美元，同比增长4.3%；进口19281.6亿美元，同比增长2.2%；贸易顺差6895.0亿美元。</p> <p>具体到内燃机行业，进出口表现小幅增长，进口增长高于出口。</p> <p>据海关总署数据整理，2024年1-9月内燃机行业进出口总额246.78亿美元，同比增长5.04%。其中，进口68.56亿美元，同比增长5.30%；出口178.23亿美元，同比增长4.94%。</p> <p>在进口金额中，其它类用内燃机同比下降，其余各类均为增长，其它类用内燃机下降幅度较大。具体为：2024年1-9月柴油机进口11.79亿美元，同比增长25.99%；汽油机进口3.61亿美元，同比增长4.58%；其他类整机进口16.16亿美元，同比下降17.97%；内燃机零部件进口30.88亿美元，同比增长10.13%；发电机组进口6.10亿美元，同比增长34.41%。</p> <p>在出口金额中，除发电机组用同比下降外其余各细分类型均同比增长。具体为：2024年1-9月柴油机出口10.18亿美元，同比增长4.96%；汽油机出口15.86亿美元，同比增长41.05%；其他类整机出口18.70亿美元，同比增长1.18%；内燃机零部件出口95.42亿美元，同比增长6.93%；发电机组出口38.06亿美元，同比下降7.54%。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘儒 021-26096617 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-293-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-293-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div 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