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Brasil pode ganhar com novos destinos do capital chinês - 20/11/2024 - Vinicius Torres Freire - Folha
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href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/olimpiadas/">olimpíadas</a></li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"><a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/esporte/futebolinternacional/">futebol internacional</a></li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"><a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/esporte/campeonato-brasileiro/">campeonato brasileiro</a></li> </ul> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <div class="c-list-menu__wrap-links"> <a href="" class="u-link-clean"> notícias por estado </a> <a class="u-link-clean c-list-menu__toggle link-icon" href="#sidebarmenu-noticias-por-estado" data-toggle="collapse" data-icon=".icon--chevron-down" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="sidebarmenu-noticias-por-estado"> <svg xmlns="//www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="24" height="24" class="icon icon--chevron-down" aria-hidden="true"> <path d="M 6.2499999,9.800625 7.60125,8.449375 12,12.838542 16.39875,8.449375 17.75,9.800625 l -5.75,5.75 -5.75,-5.75 z"></path> </svg> </a> </div> <ul class="c-list-menu__sublist collapse" id="sidebarmenu-noticias-por-estado" aria-expanded="false"> <li class="c-list-menu__item"><a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/sao-paulo-estado/">São Paulo</a></li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"><a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/riodejaneiro/">Rio de Janeiro</a></li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"><a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/minas-gerais-estado/">Minas Gerais</a></li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"><a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/noticias-por-estado/">mais estados</a></li> </ul> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/podcasts/">podcasts</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <div class="c-list-menu__wrap-links"> <a href="https://f5.folha.uol.com.br" class="u-link-clean"> F5 </a> <a class="u-link-clean 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href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-social-mais/">Folha Social+</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://guia.folha.uol.com.br">guia folha</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/turismo/">turismo</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folhinha/">folhinha</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folhateen/">folhateen</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/comida/">comida</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/deltafolha/">deltafolha</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/dias-melhores/">dias melhores</a> </li> <li class="c-list-menu__item"> <a class="u-link-clean" 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e <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/china/">China</a> divulgaram um desses comunicados café com leite de encontros bilaterais —<a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2024/11/lula-assina-com-china-plano-de-cooperacao-para-novo-pac-mas-sem-aderir-a-nova-rota-da-seda.shtml" rel="" target="">aqueles acordos de cooperação vagos</a>. Mas pode ter carne nesse cardápio.</p> <p>A China tem mudado o endereço de seus investimentos. Em 2017, 3 dos 10 maiores destinos de capital chinês eram "países em desenvolvimento". De 2018 a 2022, passaram a ser algo em torno de 5. Em 2023, 9 de 10. Os dados foram compilados pela Câmara Empresarial Brasil-China.</p><div ><div class="widget-image rs_skip"> <figure> <div class="c-image-aspect-ratio c-image-aspect-ratio--3x2"> <img alt="A imagem mostra dois homens em trajes formais, um à esquerda com um terno escuro e gravata, e outro à direita com um terno cinza e gravata. Eles estão em um evento ao ar livre, em um tapete vermelho, com uma banda de música ao fundo. O ambiente parece festivo, com pessoas e decorações visíveis ao fundo." class="img-responsive c-lazyload c-image-aspect-ratio__image" data-srcset=" https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_th.jpg 100w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_xs.jpg 320w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_sm.jpg 480w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_md.jpg 768w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_lg.jpg 1024w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_xl.jpg 1200w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_rt.jpg 2400w " data-sizes="(min-width: 1024px) 850px, 100vw" data-src="https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_md.jpg"> <noscript> <img alt="A imagem mostra dois homens em trajes formais, um à esquerda com um terno escuro e gravata, e outro à direita com um terno cinza e gravata. Eles estão em um evento ao ar livre, em um tapete vermelho, com uma banda de música ao fundo. O ambiente parece festivo, com pessoas e decorações visíveis ao fundo." class="img-responsive c-image-aspect-ratio__image" srcset=" https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_th.jpg 100w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_xs.jpg 320w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_sm.jpg 480w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_md.jpg 768w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_lg.jpg 1024w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_xl.jpg 1200w, https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_rt.jpg 2400w " sizes="(min-width: 1024px) 850px, 100vw" src="https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2024/11/20/1732119635673e0c533ad60_1732119635_3x2_md.jpg"> </noscript> </div> <figcaption class="widget-image__subtitle"> Xi Jinping (esq.) é recebido pelo presidente Lula em Brasília - <span class="widget-image__credits"> Pedro Ladeira/Folhapress </span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div> <p>Em 2018, <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/donald-trump/">Donald Trump</a> declarou <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/guerra-comercial/">guerra comercial</a> contra a China. Como é sabido, as restrições americanas e do Ocidente a negócios com os chineses vão além.</p> <div class="c-advertising c-advertising--300x250 u-hidden-xs rs_skip"> <div id="banner-300x250-area-materia" class="c-advertising__banner-area"></div> </div> <p>Não estamos à beira de receber jorro de capital chinês. Para começar, esse fluxo amainou em anos recentes, por causa da epidemia, de <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/jair-bolsonaro/">Jair Bolsonaro</a> e porque o <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/pib/">PIB</a> brasileiro se arrastava na poeira. Além do mais, o dinheiro não virá por graça política. A condição necessária é a de sempre: estabilidade econômica, perspectiva de crescimento e barganhas.</p> <p>Sim, há poréns.</p> <div class="player_dynad_tv rs_skip"></div> <p>Primeiro, a China gostaria que tais barganhas fossem formalizadas em acordos da <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2023/10/nova-rota-da-seda-chinesa-gera-us-2-trilhoes-em-contratos.shtml" rel="" target="">Iniciativa Cinturão e Rota</a>, que podem envolver regras de investimento, comércio e acertos financeiros. O Brasil inventou essa história de "<a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2024/10/chanceler-chines-com-rui-costa-diz-que-e-hora-de-aprofundar-parceria.shtml" rel="" target="">sinergia</a>" com a China a fim de escapar de acordos formais e do risco de retaliações de adversários da China.</p> <p>Segundo, a produção chinesa, excessiva, vem sendo desovada a preço de banana pelo mundo, o que assusta também a indústria brasileira. Um <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/igor-patrick/2024/11/incerteza-de-kamala-e-trump-sobre-china-confunde-brasil-e-aliados.shtml" rel="" target="">acordo de fundo com os chineses</a> poderia implicar mais ameaças para siderúrgicas, química, máquinas, têxteis, por exemplo. Já houve aumento de imposto de importação sobre aço e painel solar.</p> <p>Terceiro, a China reagirá ao novo ataque de Trump. A depender de como o fizer, <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2024/11/veja-dez-impactos-esperados-na-economia-apos-a-eleicao-de-trump-nos-eua-da-inflacao-ao-emprego.shtml" rel="" target="">pode sobrar para o Brasil</a>, no mau sentido.</p> <p>Mas há oportunidade, possibilidade de convergência de interesses que pode ser aproveitada pelo governo <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/lula/" rel="" target="">Lula</a>.</p><div ><div class="c-video js-widget-youtube widget-youtube rs_skip" data-video data-href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm8WvSIODqI&t=1s"> <iframe src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> </div> </div><div ><div data-newsletter-simple data-subscript="4962" data-message=".js-message" data-button=".js-button" data-email=".js-email" class="c-newsletter rs_skip rs_preserve" > <h4 class="c-section-title c-section-title--brand c-section-title--small-spaced">Folha Mercado</h4> <p class="c-newsletter__subtitle">Receba no seu email o que de mais importante acontece na economia; aberta para não assinantes.</p> <div class="c-form__default js-newsletter-form"> <div class="c-newsletter__wrapper"> <input type="email" class="c-newsletter__text js-email" name="email" placeholder="Digite seu e-mail"/> <button type="button" class="c-newsletter__button js-button"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="21" height="18" viewBox="0 0 21 18" class="icon icon--arrow-rigth"> <path fill="#333" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M21 9L.01 0 0 7l15 2-15 2 .01 7z"/> </svg> </button> </div> <p class="c-form__info-message c-newsletter__obs js-message is-hidden" aria-busy="false" aria-hidden="true">Carregando...</p> </div> </div> </div><p>Segundo dados da Câmara Empresarial Brasil China, apenas <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha-topicos/estados-unidos/">Estados Unidos</a>, Austrália e Reino Unido receberam mais capital chinês do que o Brasil entre 2007 e 2023. Pode vir mais.</p> <div class="c-advertising c-advertising--300x250 u-hidden-xs rs_skip"> <div id="banner-bottom-materia" class="c-advertising__banner-area"></div> </div> <p>Nos dados mais recentes do Banco Central, até 2022, a China estava em quinto lugar no <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2024/11/mais-protecionismo-e-cerco-a-importados-nos-eua-sob-trump-devem-atrapalhar-brasil-dizem-analistas.shtml" rel="" target="">ranking de investimento direto</a> no país, no Brasil (participação do detentor final no capital), com 5% do total investido. Ainda pouco, atrás de Estados Unidos (29% do total), Espanha, Reino Unido e França. Desse dinheiro investido, cerca de 80% havia sido destinado para eletricidade e petróleo, muita vez por meio de aquisição.</p> <p>A coisa começou a mudar, como se vê pela chegada das <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2024/10/byd-aposta-no-agronegocio-brasileiro-para-vender-picape-hibrida.shtml" rel="" target="">montadoras chinesas</a> e dinheiro que pinga em fábrica de eletrônicos, aparelhos elétricos e máquinas e equipamentos, além de infraestrutura.</p> <p>É claro que não vai haver migração da manufatura chinesa para o Brasil de escala pequena, custo alto, infraestrutura ruim, escassez de mão de obra etc. Mesmo com restrições às vendas chinesas, os investimentos migram para vizinhanças ("China + 1"). Mas algo pode se mover.</p> <p>O Brasil, com plano e investimento em pesquisa e tecnologia, pode ter vantagens e novidades na <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2024/11/governo-lula-faz-cortes-recordes-em-orcamento-de-agencias-de-energia-e-mineracao.shtml" rel="" target="">indústria verde </a>(biocombustíveis, equipamentos), o nome que se dê. Parece óbvio e velho. No entanto, faltam providências decisivas, entre elas destinar recursos para o desenvolvimento técnico desses negócios. 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9.6973732,5.9017564 9.5104375,6.0878582 9.3617206,6.2565141 9.2121719,6.4235108 9.063455,6.6104458 8.9321847,6.8339388 l 0.019112,0 0,-1.491328 -3.4313016,0 0.018279,0.5034754 0,3.0765435 c 0,1.7156473 0,3.9538893 -0.018279,6.7138853 l 3.4313016,0 0,0 z"/> </svg> </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/folhadespaulo/" target="_blank"> <span class="u-visually-hidden">Link externo, abre página da Folha de S.Paulo no Instagram</span> <svg xmlns="https://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="icon icon--instagram" aria-hidden="true"> <path d="M7.8,2H16.2C19.4,2 22,4.6 22,7.8V16.2A5.8,5.8 0 0,1 16.2,22H7.8C4.6,22 2,19.4 2,16.2V7.8A5.8,5.8 0 0,1 7.8,2M7.6,4A3.6,3.6 0 0,0 4,7.6V16.4C4,18.39 5.61,20 7.6,20H16.4A3.6,3.6 0 0,0 20,16.4V7.6C20,5.61 18.39,4 16.4,4H7.6M17.25,5.5A1.25,1.25 0 0,1 18.5,6.75A1.25,1.25 0 0,1 17.25,8A1.25,1.25 0 0,1 16,6.75A1.25,1.25 0 0,1 17.25,5.5M12,7A5,5 0 0,1 17,12A5,5 0 0,1 12,17A5,5 0 0,1 7,12A5,5 0 0,1 12,7M12,9A3,3 0 0,0 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col--md-1-1"></div></div><div class="row "><div class="col col--xs-1-1 col--sm-1-1 col--md-1-1"><div class="c-the-trust-project"> <h4 class="c-the-trust-project__text">A Folha integra o</h4> <a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/credibilidade/folha-no-projeto-credibilidade.shtml"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="146" height="25" viewBox="0 0 146 25"> <g> <g> <path d="M21 0H4C1.8 0 0 1.8 0 4v17c0 2.2 1.8 4 4 4h17c2.2 0 4-1.8 4-4V4c0-2.2-1.8-4-4-4zm2.5 21c0 1.375-1.125 2.5-2.5 2.5H4A2.507 2.507 0 0 1 1.5 21V4c0-1.375 1.125-2.5 2.5-2.5h17c1.375 0 2.5 1.125 2.5 2.5v17z"/> <g> <path d="M40.6 8.925h-3.175V17.5H35.2V8.925h-3.125V7.1H40.6zM47.75 10.35c.45.475.675 1.25.675 2.3v4.85h-2.15v-4.85c0-.475-.1-.8-.3-.975-.2-.2-.5-.275-.9-.275-.575 0-1 .2-1.25.625v5.5h-2.15V7.1h2.15v3.5c.25-.325.55-.55.9-.725a2.47 2.47 0 0 1 1.125-.25c.825 0 1.45.25 1.9.725zM56.475 14.35h-4.9c.075.475.275.875.6 1.15.325.275.725.425 1.225.425.375 0 .725-.075 1.025-.2.325-.15.575-.35.8-.625l1.025 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</span> <form id="form_newsletter" role="form" class="c-form js-newsletter-form" action="#" method="POST" data-newsletter-form> <fieldset> <legend>Quais newsletters você gostaria de assinar?</legend> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-brasliahoje" value="brasliahoje" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-brasliahoje"> Brasília Hoje * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-iecomocriarhbitos" value="iecomocriarhbitos" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-iecomocriarhbitos"> IE | Como criar hábitos * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-maratonar" value="maratonar" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-maratonar"> Maratonar </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-planetaemtranse" value="planetaemtranse" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-planetaemtranse"> Planeta em Transe </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-tudoumpouco" value="tudoumpouco" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-tudoumpouco"> Tudo + um pouco </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-todas" value="todas" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-todas"> Todas </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-folhajus" value="folhajus" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-folhajus"> FolhaJus </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-intelignciaemocional" value="intelignciaemocional" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-intelignciaemocional"> Inteligência emocional * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-energialimpa" value="energialimpa" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-energialimpa"> Energia Limpa </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-cuidese" value="cuidese" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-cuidese"> Cuide-se </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-desvendandoia" value="desvendandoia" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-desvendandoia"> Desvendando IA * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-tudoaler" value="tudoaler" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-tudoaler"> Tudo a Ler </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-painel" value="painel" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-painel"> Painel * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-painelsa" value="painelsa" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-painelsa"> Painel S.A. * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-mnicabergamo" value="mnicabergamo" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-mnicabergamo"> Mônica Bergamo * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-notciasdodia" value="notciasdodia" name="check-box" checked> <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-notciasdodia"> Notícias do dia </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-folhacarreiras" value="folhacarreiras" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-folhacarreiras"> Folha Carreiras </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-chinaterradomeio" value="chinaterradomeio" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-chinaterradomeio"> China, terra do meio * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-folhamercado" value="folhamercado" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-folhamercado"> Folha Mercado </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-combo" value="combo" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-combo"> Combo </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-colunaseblogs" value="colunaseblogs" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-colunaseblogs"> Colunas e Blogs * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-dicasdoeditor" value="dicasdoeditor" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-dicasdoeditor"> Dicas do Editor * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-paracurtirsp" value="paracurtirsp" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-paracurtirsp"> Para Curtir SP </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-lfora" value="lfora" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-lfora"> Lá Fora </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-folhamed" value="folhamed" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-folhamed"> FolhaMed * </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-newsfrombrazil" value="newsfrombrazil" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-newsfrombrazil"> News from Brazil </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-noticiasdebrasil" value="noticiasdebrasil" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-noticiasdebrasil"> Noticias de Brasil </label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-nafrenterussa" value="nafrenterussa" name="check-box" > <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-nafrenterussa"> Na frente russa </label> </div> <div class="c-form__obs"> <span>*exclusivo para assinantes</span> </div> </fieldset> <fieldset class="c-newsletter__fieldset"> <legend>Você também gostaria de:</legend> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-newsinformacoes" value="newsinformacoes" name="check-box" checked> <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-newsinformacoes">Receber informações sobre produtos e serviços da Folha de S. Paulo</label> </div> <div class="c-form__checkbox"> <input type="checkbox" id="modal-newsofertas" value="newsofertas" name="check-box"> <label class="c-newsletter__label" for="modal-newsofertas">Receber ofertas de parceiros da Folha de S. 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