瑞达期货：沪铜主力合约震荡偏强-我的钢铁网

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class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="791" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>沪<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>主力合约震荡偏强，持仓量增加，现货贴水，基差走弱。</p> <p>国际方面，美联储威廉姆斯表示，真的很难预测美联储今年将如何调整利率；不担心美联储的独立性；很难对经济前景形成基础情景，更倾向于考虑不同的情景。由于经济及贸易前景面临不确定性，利率期货市场完全定价美联储2025年将降息三次，5月降息概率超50%。国内方面，中国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战。但中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，对中国经济的前景充满信心。</p> <p>基本面上，<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongjingkuang/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜精矿</a>端加工费快速回落，创下历史新低，加之港口库存快速回落，原料供应趋紧预期加剧。供应方面，国内冶炼厂陆续复工复产，预计产量将有提振。国内供应量级或将稳定增长，沪铜供给相对充足。需求方面，随着铜行业“金三银四”旺季的来临，以及国内偏积极宏观政策的刺激下，下游铜材企业逐渐复工使产能利用将逐步回升，需求逐渐转暖、预期回升。库存方面，下游企业当下多以消耗节前备货进行复工复产，造成国内社会库存的积累，而随着下游消费旺季的来临，下游主动进行补库操作，社会库存积累速率将逐步放缓。</p> <p>总体而言，沪铜基本面或处于供给充足、需求复苏预期偏暖的阶段。期权方面，平值期权持仓购沽比为0.90，环比-0.0085，期权市场情绪偏多，隐含波动率略降。</p> <p>操作建议，轻仓逢低短多交易，注意控制节奏及交易风险。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 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