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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__SfYQE"><style></style><div data-component="mdc-c-background-image" class="mdc-c-bg-image___GJdv1_2734c4f background-image-article-default ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__parallax-container__fZ7Iq"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__gradient__Uu21n"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__wrapper-content__XOe9C"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-1 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-10"><div><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2 mck-u-animation-slide-down ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__heading__bv6rL"><div>The future of textbooks</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2014-08-01T00:00:00Z">August 1, 2014</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Richard Benson-Armer </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/jimmy-sarakatsannis" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Jimmy Sarakatsannis</span></a><span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Ken Wee</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Higher-education publishers face a growing threat from the rental-textbook market. Publishers can meet this challenge by shifting their emphasis from print to digital.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Fpublic%20and%20social%20sector%2Four%20insights%2Fthe%20future%20of%20textbooks%2Fthe-future-of-textbooks-final.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="the-future-of-textbooks-final" data-layer-report-name="the-future-of-textbooks-final>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (PDF-434 KB)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Each year, </strong>students have more choices for how to spend their limited book budgets. Used bookstores and online resale marketplaces offer textbooks at steep discounts that are attractive to students, but these players compete with textbook publishers that rely on new-book sales. Recently, a new type of player, the rental-textbook retailer, has emerged. Although this shift has benefited publishers so far, it could threaten their market share significantly in the next three years.</p> <p>The average US college student spends $500 to $1,500 annually on course materials. This creates a nearly $10 billion industry, of which about $6 billion is addressable for textbook publishers.<a rel="#footnote1" class="link-footnote" href="#"><sup>1</sup></a> <span style="display:none" id="footnote1" class="tooltip"><span class="footnote-content"><span class="footnote-number">1.</span><span class="footnote-text"> Our analysis considered data from Simba Information and a McKinsey survey of students.</span><span class="clear"></span></span><span class="footnote-bottom"></span></span> Our research suggests that textbook rentals will start to cannibalize new-textbook sales by 2017, resulting in a reduction in new-book sales of 5 to 10 percent by 2020. That equates to as much as $500 million in lost sales. Textbook publishers face crucial choices about how to respond to these changing competitive and marketplace demands. Yet they can fight back—and dramatically improve how they support student learning.</p> <h2>The rental market rises</h2> <p>Educational publishers have long struggled to maximize sales of new textbooks to students. Historically, many students looking to save money simply shared textbooks among themselves. At the same time, college bookstores provided a cheap and convenient way to buy used textbooks, provided there was sufficient supply. And because bookstores typically realize higher margins on used textbooks than new ones, they had a clear incentive to push used books.</p> <p>In the 1990s, e-commerce players such as Amazon.com and eBay transformed the used-book market by better connecting buyers and sellers. As a result, used-textbook sales rose from a historical average of about 30 percent of total textbook sales to about 36 percent by the late 1990s.</p> <p>Then, in 2008, the textbook-rental market emerged as a mainstream option. New entrants such as BookRenter and Chegg were able to rent out new textbooks for less than the price of a used book. Budget-conscious students no longer had to worry about reselling their textbooks at the end of every semester. This value proposition resonated with students and the rental market grew rapidly, with existing players such as Amazon and Barnes & Noble College starting textbook-rental businesses of their own.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/sitecore/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7b458771a3-8553-45cf-bc15-4ea0029986ac%7d%40en">Social Sector Practice</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Visit our Education page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>Since 2012, we have been gathering data on how US college students acquire course materials. Our annual survey of more than 1,000 students shows steady growth in the textbook-rental market. In our 2012 survey, 10 percent of all assigned textbooks were rented. Some 30 percent of textbooks were purchased new, and about 45 percent were bought used. (The remaining 15 percent includes basic e-book sales and books that were shared, borrowed, or pirated.) One year later, the proportion of rented textbooks had doubled to about 20 percent, compared with 30 percent bought new and 40 percent bought used. And in our 2014 survey, the rental share was 25 percent, compared with 30 percent for new and 35 percent for used (Exhibit 1).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public%20and%20social%20sector/our%20insights/the%20future%20of%20textbooks/svgz_ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Student preference has shifted toward rented textbooks." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public%20and%20social%20sector/our%20insights/the%20future%20of%20textbooks/svgz_ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>We expect rentals to peak at about 30 percent of assigned textbooks, taking share primarily from used books. Our surveys suggest that student awareness of the rental market is already high and that future rental intent has slowed drastically since 2012. In addition, our research suggests that rental companies are close to exhausting the supply of textbooks that have attractive rental economics. A quarter of all textbooks sold are custom publications, which typically get updated annually, or contain consumable elements such as workbooks. Neither segment is well suited to a rental model. And textbooks for advanced elective courses have much smaller target audiences that may not be attractive for rental companies.</p> <p>Yet the maturation of the rental market doesn’t mean publishers can relax; there are two issues. First, given a low-cost option to acquire textbooks with no resale risk, students can be expected to still gravitate toward rentals. Once used copies enter the rental market, publishers lose out on new sales of their books.</p> <p>Second, the impact of the rental market on textbook publishers remains negative. While we have found that publishers enjoy a “pull forward” effect from rental companies that must purchase new books at the beginning of a publication cycle to build up their stock, this is offset by a sales decline of about 25 to 30 percent in later semesters as new-textbook sales are replaced by rentals. The result is that, over the entire publication cycle, the textbook-rental market causes a net decrease of about 5 to 10 percent in total unit sales (Exhibit 2).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public%20and%20social%20sector/our%20insights/the%20future%20of%20textbooks/svgz_ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The ‘pull forward’ effect is offset by cannibalization of new-book sales in later semesters." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public%20and%20social%20sector/our%20insights/the%20future%20of%20textbooks/svgz_ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In periods when overall rental penetration is growing, the first-semester spike in new-book purchases has typically outweighed the impact of cannibalization from prior semesters. Yet as rental growth slows, we expect cannibalization to outweigh the first-semester spike, assuming student preferences for new, used, rental, and e-books remain constant after 2018. Our analysis shows that the pull-forward effect that peaked in 2012 will turn negative in 2014. We expect sales of new books to fall by up to 10 percent by 2017 (Exhibit 3).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public%20and%20social%20sector/our%20insights/the%20future%20of%20textbooks/svgz_the_future_of_textbooks_ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="New-book sales could fall by 10 percent by 2017." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public%20and%20social%20sector/our%20insights/the%20future%20of%20textbooks/svgz_the_future_of_textbooks_ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h2>Custom and digital defenses</h2> <p>The good news is that textbook publishers have options that may protect them from this threat while benefiting students and educators.</p> <p>Some publishers have embraced custom publishing. Custom-textbook sales are less affected by the used and rental markets because course materials are “localized” for specific professors and courses. And because custom-publishing materials are typically updated more frequently than standard textbooks, the publication cycle is shorter. Custom publishing currently accounts for up to 40 percent of units sold by several major publishers. However, the custom-publishing market is already quite mature, which means that growth opportunities are limited.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Transforming learning through mEducation" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public%20and%20social%20sector/our%20insights/transforming%20learning%20through%20meducation/transforming%20learning%20through%20meducation_0.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Transforming learning through mEducation</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/education/our-insights/transforming-learning-through-meducation" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Read the article</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>The larger opportunity for publishers lies in the creation of dynamic digital-learning resources. Many publishers already are creating adaptive exercises, digital text with interactive graphics, audio, and video, and desktop simulations of everything from chemistry experiments to taking a patient’s pulse.</p> <p>Early evidence suggests these digital tools can improve educational outcomes. Dropout rates fell to 14 percent from 31 percent after adaptive digital tutorials were introduced in a first-year engineering-mechanics course at Australia’s University of New South Wales. Similar tutorials have helped boost pass rates in other entry-level courses by an average of 18 percent at Arizona State University, the University of Alabama, and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, according to data that we compiled from university websites, Knewton and Smart Sparrow.</p> <p>Time is not on the side of textbook publishers. They face a near-term competitive threat from the rental market, even as they serve a customer base that is increasingly dominated by digital natives. Both factors point to a digital future for the textbook-publishing industry—and better outcomes for students.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Richard Benson-Armer </strong>is a director in McKinsey’s Stamford office; <strong>Jimmy Sarakatsannis </strong>is an associate principal in the Washington, DC, office; and 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textbooks","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"bff40b6d-a15b-427b-a9c5-5c1d7ce5fdfd","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"The future of textbooks"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Higher-education publishers face a growing threat from the rental-textbook market. Publishers can meet this challenge by shifting their emphasis from print to digital."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2014-08-01T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]] \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEach year, \u003c/strong\u003estudents have more choices for how to spend their limited book budgets. Used bookstores and online resale marketplaces offer textbooks at steep discounts that are attractive to students, but these players compete with textbook publishers that rely on new-book sales. Recently, a new type of player, the rental-textbook retailer, has emerged. Although this shift has benefited publishers so far, it could threaten their market share significantly in the next three years.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe average US college student spends $500 to $1,500 annually on course materials. This creates a nearly $10 billion industry, of which about $6 billion is addressable for textbook publishers.\u003ca href=\"#\" class=\"link-footnote\" onclick=\"return false;\" rel=\"#footnote1\"\u003e\u003csup\u003e1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/a\u003e \u003cspan class=\"tooltip\" id=\"footnote1\" style=\"display: none;\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-content\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-number\"\u003e1.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-text\"\u003e Our analysis considered data from Simba Information and a McKinsey survey of students.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"clear\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-bottom\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e Our research suggests that textbook rentals will start to cannibalize new-textbook sales by 2017, resulting in a reduction in new-book sales of 5 to 10 percent by 2020. That equates to as much as $500 million in lost sales. Textbook publishers face crucial choices about how to respond to these changing competitive and marketplace demands. Yet they can fight back\u0026mdash;and dramatically improve how they support student learning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eThe rental market rises\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEducational publishers have long struggled to maximize sales of new textbooks to students. Historically, many students looking to save money simply shared textbooks among themselves. At the same time, college bookstores provided a cheap and convenient way to buy used textbooks, provided there was sufficient supply. And because bookstores typically realize higher margins on used textbooks than new ones, they had a clear incentive to push used books.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the 1990s, e-commerce players such as Amazon.com and eBay transformed the used-book market by better connecting buyers and sellers. As a result, used-textbook sales rose from a historical average of about 30 percent of total textbook sales to about 36 percent by the late 1990s.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThen, in 2008, the textbook-rental market emerged as a mainstream option. New entrants such as BookRenter and Chegg were able to rent out new textbooks for less than the price of a used book. Budget-conscious students no longer had to worry about reselling their textbooks at the end of every semester. This value proposition resonated with students and the rental market grew rapidly, with existing players such as Amazon and Barnes \u0026amp; Noble College starting textbook-rental businesses of their own.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[disruptor1UP dis1]]\n\u003cp\u003eSince 2012, we have been gathering data on how US college students acquire course materials. Our annual survey of more than 1,000 students shows steady growth in the textbook-rental market. In our 2012 survey, 10 percent of all assigned textbooks were rented. Some 30 percent of textbooks were purchased new, and about 45 percent were bought used. (The remaining 15 percent includes basic e-book sales and books that were shared, borrowed, or pirated.) One year later, the proportion of rented textbooks had doubled to about 20 percent, compared with 30 percent bought new and 40 percent bought used. And in our 2014 survey, the rental share was 25 percent, compared with 30 percent for new and 35 percent for used (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eWe expect rentals to peak at about 30 percent of assigned textbooks, taking share primarily from used books. Our surveys suggest that student awareness of the rental market is already high and that future rental intent has slowed drastically since 2012. In addition, our research suggests that rental companies are close to exhausting the supply of textbooks that have attractive rental economics. A quarter of all textbooks sold are custom publications, which typically get updated annually, or contain consumable elements such as workbooks. Neither segment is well suited to a rental model. And textbooks for advanced elective courses have much smaller target audiences that may not be attractive for rental companies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYet the maturation of the rental market doesn\u0026rsquo;t mean publishers can relax; there are two issues. First, given a low-cost option to acquire textbooks with no resale risk, students can be expected to still gravitate toward rentals. Once used copies enter the rental market, publishers lose out on new sales of their books.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSecond, the impact of the rental market on textbook publishers remains negative. While we have found that publishers enjoy a \u0026ldquo;pull forward\u0026rdquo; effect from rental companies that must purchase new books at the beginning of a publication cycle to build up their stock, this is offset by a sales decline of about 25 to 30 percent in later semesters as new-textbook sales are replaced by rentals. The result is that, over the entire publication cycle, the textbook-rental market causes a net decrease of about 5 to 10 percent in total unit sales (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn periods when overall rental penetration is growing, the first-semester spike in new-book purchases has typically outweighed the impact of cannibalization from prior semesters. Yet as rental growth slows, we expect cannibalization to outweigh the first-semester spike, assuming student preferences for new, used, rental, and e-books remain constant after 2018. Our analysis shows that the pull-forward effect that peaked in 2012 will turn negative in 2014. We expect sales of new books to fall by up to 10 percent by 2017 (Exhibit 3).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 3]]\n\u003ch2\u003eCustom and digital defenses\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe good news is that textbook publishers have options that may protect them from this threat while benefiting students and educators.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSome publishers have embraced custom publishing. Custom-textbook sales are less affected by the used and rental markets because course materials are \u0026ldquo;localized\u0026rdquo; for specific professors and courses. And because custom-publishing materials are typically updated more frequently than standard textbooks, the publication cycle is shorter. Custom publishing currently accounts for up to 40 percent of units sold by several major publishers. However, the custom-publishing market is already quite mature, which means that growth opportunities are limited.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[disruptor1UP dis2]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe larger opportunity for publishers lies in the creation of dynamic digital-learning resources. Many publishers already are creating adaptive exercises, digital text with interactive graphics, audio, and video, and desktop simulations of everything from chemistry experiments to taking a patient\u0026rsquo;s pulse.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEarly evidence suggests these digital tools can improve educational outcomes. Dropout rates fell to 14 percent from 31 percent after adaptive digital tutorials were introduced in a first-year engineering-mechanics course at Australia\u0026rsquo;s University of New South Wales. Similar tutorials have helped boost pass rates in other entry-level courses by an average of 18 percent at Arizona State University, the University of Alabama, and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, according to data that we compiled from university websites, Knewton and Smart Sparrow.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTime is not on the side of textbook publishers. They face a near-term competitive threat from the rental market, even as they serve a customer base that is increasingly dominated by digital natives. Both factors point to a digital future for the textbook-publishing industry\u0026mdash;and better outcomes for students.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2014-08-01T01:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRichard Benson-Armer\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eis a director in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Stamford office; \u003cstrong\u003eJimmy Sarakatsannis\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eis an associate principal in the Washington, DC, office; and \u003cstrong\u003eKen Wee\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eis an associate principal in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"C984CFBD6D5A4AF4A08A802F819F9CD7","name":"Richard BensonArmer","authorTitle":{"value":"Richard Benson-Armer"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"EEA2667ED9164B2C9A24478AB6F6B179","name":"Jimmy Sarakatsannis","authorTitle":{"value":"Jimmy Sarakatsannis"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/jimmy sarakatsannis/jimmy-sarakatsannis_profile_800x600.jpg","alt":"Jimmy Sarakatsannis"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Jimmy_Sarakatsannis@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":""},"description":{"value":"Offers broad and deep expertise in education, with a particular interest in the use of technology to transform teaching and learning"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Washington DC","displayName":"Washington DC"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Senior Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Jimmy Sarakatsannis","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/jimmy sarakatsannis/jimmy-sarakatsannis_headshot_625x469.jpg"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/jimmy-sarakatsannis"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"F7881CC04E5C4C3F8D4AECB6652E58CE","name":"Ken Wee","authorTitle":{"value":"Ken Wee"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Wiring students for success"},"url":{"path":"/industries/education/our-insights/wiring-students-for-success"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Commentary"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Commentary"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Don\u0026rsquo;t believe the skeptics: digital technology really can help teachers improve educational outcomes."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public and social sector/our insights/wiring students for success/wiring_students_for_success_1536x1536_400_standard.jpg","alt":"Wiring_students_for_success_1536x1536_400_Standard"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"The $4,000 bachelor\u0026rsquo;s degree"},"url":{"path":"/industries/education/our-insights/the-$4000-bachelors-degree"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Commentary"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Commentary"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"How a digital university eliminated tuition."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/public and social sector/our insights/the $4000 bachelors degree/the $4000 bachelors degree_200_standard.jpg","alt":"The $4000 bachelors degree_200_Standard"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"College for all"},"url":{"path":"/industries/education/our-insights/college-for-all"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Open online courses are changing higher education. 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