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Mysteel周报：生铁行业概览--供需双降 市场继续宽幅下行-我的钢铁网
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<p><span style="font-size:14px;">1、保链稳链提振工业经济。国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年，规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.4%。产业链供应链是工业经济的命脉，上半年我国工业经济能够扭转下滑态势实现恢复增长，一大重要因素正是着力畅通稳定产业链供应链，聚焦重点区域、重点行业、重点企业和重点民生，推动包括2.25万家部省“白名单”企业在内的全国规模以上工业企业实现平稳生产，从而有力支撑工业经济稳定增长。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">2、国家智能铸造产业创新中心：建立以数据驱动为核心的网络化、平台化经营管理模式。国家智能铸造产业创新中心围绕铸造企业数字化建设的痛点、难点和堵点问题，通过关键技术的突破，研发铸造全流程运营管控平台，集成了工艺设计、工艺管理、计划管理、质量管理、检验管理、生产作业、库存管理、工装模具、设备管理、能源管理、成本核算、绩效管理、看板管理等11个模块应用，推进企业信息系统综合集成；以平台为基础，建立以数据驱动为核心的网络化、平台化经营管理模式，支撑铸造企业制造资源泛在连接、弹性供给、高效配置，助力企业数字化转型，进而推动铸造行业生产制造服务体系的智能化升级、产业链延伸和价值链拓展，带动产业向高端迈进。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">3、工信部：中小企业需更多政策落地见效，下半年将重点采取措施。从制造业占GDP的比重来看，二季度，规模以上制造业增加值占GDP比重达到了28.8%，比2021年增加了1.4个百分点，这是一个非常有利的信号。从投资贡献来看，二季度制造业投资增长7.4%，高出固定资产投资增幅的3.2个百分点，拉动作用也体现出来了。工业出口迅速由降转升，实现了两位数增长。装备制造业快速回升，特别是6月份对整体工业增长贡献率超过了七成，装备制造业发力比较大，说明我们国家的装备制造业在工业体系中的作用逐步体现出来。工信部还将按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，把提振工业经济放在更加突出的位置，促进工业经济运行在合理区间，为党的二十大胜利召开营造良好环境。采取几项措施：一是加快推动稳工业经济一揽子政策落地见效。二是引导扩大投资消费需求。三是保障产业链供应链稳定畅通。四是加大帮扶中小企业纾困解难。</span></p> <p align="justify"><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>二、产业数据</strong></span></p> <p align="justify"><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>1、2022年6月汽车制造业工业增加值同比呈明显增长。</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">据中国汽车工业协会整理的国家统计局数据显示，2022年6月，汽车制造业工业增加值同比止跌回升，呈现明显增长。2022年6月，汽车制造业工业增加值同比增长16.2%，为2021年3月以来新高，高于同期全国规模以上工业增加值12.3个百分点。2022年1-6月，汽车制造业工业增加值同比下降1.9%，降幅比1-5月收窄3.8个百分点，1-7月有望由负转正。 </span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>2、上半年工程机械平均月开工率60.37%，二季度明显高于一季度。</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">“央视财经挖掘机指数”最新数据显示，2022年上半年工程机械平均月开工率为60.37%，二季度为66.77%，明显高于一季度的53.98%。从设备类型来看，摊铺机平均作业量连增5个月，二季度与一季度相比，累计平均作业量增长124%。汽车起重机一季度平均月开工率为73.94%，二季度平均月开工率为80.21%，较一季度有所增长。同时，从2021年起，在各类设备中，汽车起重机均保持开工率第一，堪称“最强增长设备”。从地区来看，上半年，内蒙古的汽车起重机、正面吊、挖掘机三类设备平均作业量全国第一，新疆的履带起重机平均作业量同比增长90.20%，排名全国第一。这表明<a href="https://xibei.mysteel.com/">西北</a>地区紧抓能源转型发展和道路建设，各项重大项目稳步推进。6月，<a href="https://shanghai.mysteel.com/">上海</a>各类机械设备开工率及平均作业量环比5月均有显著增长。6月各项工程机械数据均已恢复到一季度平均水平。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>3、乘联会：2022年中国乘用车批发增长率约为11%</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">全国乘用车市场信息联席会(简称：乘联会)在21日举办的2022年中汽车市场研讨会上预计，2022年中国乘用车批发(含出口)增长率将会在11%左右。2022年一季度以来受新冠肺炎疫情、供应链不畅、原材料价格上涨等叠加因素影响，尤其是二季度<a href="https://changchun.mysteel.com/">长春</a>、<a href="https://shanghai.mysteel.com/">上海</a>、<a href="https://beijing.mysteel.com/">北京</a>等汽车重镇疫情集中暴发，这些给汽车行业带来极大冲击和挑战。乘联会会长庄宇指出，今年上半年，汽车产业集中地都经受了疫情严峻考验，随着中国疫情防控形势趋好，上下游供应链产能将得到全面释放，国家的一系列促消费政策为当前汽车行业与市场带来了机遇。国家信息中心副主任徐长明认为，今年6月份的增长是政策、厂家加力、需求回补等综合作用的结果，今年的燃油车需求量可能止跌盘整，总体市场内需增长约200万辆，购置税减半政策将惠及88%的燃油车销量。燃油车购置税减半政策基本不会影响电动车的发展。乘联会秘书长崔东树表示，在国际局势复杂多变、新冠肺炎疫情中，各国车市出现剧烈分化，中国车企也出现分化，企业纷纷向新能源车转型，头部企业汽车出口出现爆发式增长。在政策的促动下，今年下半年中国车市会走势较强，第四季度新能源汽车在补贴政策退出之前也会有较高的增长。</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>三，市场回顾</strong></span></p> <p><span style="color:#FF0000;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong><a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a></strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">2022年维持中国生铁产量同比减少1400万吨，但国产铁精矿由于上半年产量略不达预期，因此从原来预期增量1000万吨下调至650万吨；<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>进口矿</a>方面，<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/datas/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石进口量</a>同比减量扩大至3000万吨，全年度<a href="https://tks.mysteel.com/">铁矿石供需</a>差为+780。且在上半年连续降库行情之后，七月份供需缺口缩小明显，港口库存拐点到来。至八月份，海外矿山冲量持续影响，国内到港或一直在中高位徘徊，叠加国内矿以及<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废钢</a>供应的恢复，铁矿石继续向供强需弱方向转变，年底前港口累库预期不变。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#FF0000;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>煤焦</strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">本周<a href="https://jiaotan.mysteel.com/">焦炭</a>价格第四轮提降落地，累计降幅900元/吨。焦钢亏损幅度较大，减限产现象增多，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>回落较快。市场情绪较为悲观，终端采购积极性较差。市场投机氛围冷清，整体市场信心不足。<a href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/63560.html">焦煤</a>方面，<a href="https://coal.mysteel.com/market/p-302-----050202-0--------1.html">炼焦煤</a>竞拍市场低迷，流拍率达70%，现<a href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/63560.html">焦煤</a>交投氛围冷清，新订单较少，煤矿出货不及预期，仍有继续回落预期。综合来看，市场基本面仍然较差，钢厂低<a href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/43798.html">库存</a>减量按需采购，预计下周<a href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/51109.html">焦炭</a>仍有回落空间，后期需关注下游钢材<a href="http://baike.sososteel.com/doc/view/68916.html">需求</a>、钢厂减限产和煤矿价格等对<a href="https://jiaotan.mysteel.com/">焦炭市场</a>产生的影响。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#FF0000;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>废钢</strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">当前<a href="https://gangpi.mysteel.com/">钢坯</a>等成材的销量及价格仍不理想，虽然期货近期飘红带动废钢价格有小幅的上行趋势，但随着近期越来越多的钢厂进行减产检修，对废钢的需求将持续走低。且多数钢厂仍面临着成品累库、资金周转压力大的问题，对成本的支出将进一步压缩，因此对废钢的采购仍有压价的倾向，在加上美联储加息在即，废钢价格或将面临下跌的风险。但考虑到目前产废企业开工率低，废钢资源紧缺的现状，预计下周废钢价格或将稳中偏弱运行，但不排除进入下行通道的可能。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#FF0000;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a></strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">唐山地区钢坯出厂价格先抑后扬，跌幅180元/吨，涨幅150元/吨。供给方面，本周长流程钢厂因利润持续倒挂，高炉产能利用率持续降低，钢坯外卖量缩减，市场供应减少。需求方面，期市震荡上行，调坯厂开工率提高，钢坯库存地位，且坯料价格反弹低位补库，本周需求或仍有释放。库存方面，唐山钢坯主流仓储和港口库存止增回落，且降库速度显著提高。成本方面，<a href="https://jiaotan.mysteel.com/">焦炭</a>提出第四轮降价落地，钢坯亏损或有减少。本周社会库存降幅显著，部分钢企因利润秩序倒挂进一步减产，轧钢厂内钢坯库存低位仍存阶段性补库预期，基本面阶段性回暖。预计下周钢坯市场或存反弹预期。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#FF0000;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>生铁</strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:14px;">市场方面，本周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>第四轮提降全面落地，矿石、废钢震荡下行，原料成本对铁价支撑无力，商家心态受到打压，铁厂报价下调，成交重心不断下移；供需方面，据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研显示，全国43家样本铁厂本周高炉开工率为50%，环比上周下降1.56%，目前铁厂大多处于亏损状态，开工积极性不高，山西、河南、四川、福建等地个别铁厂仍处于停产检修状态。加之钢厂停止采购炼钢铁，生铁终端需求低迷，市场成交稀少，交投氛围惨淡。综合来看，生铁供需不平衡，商家对后市多看空，因此预计下周生铁市场弱势难改。</span></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 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